Tag Archives: settle

Graham Hunter: A cheeky 9/1 punt in Barcelona’s trip to Getafe, while David Moyes may settle for a derby day draw

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Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico (-1) to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

Getafe v Barcelona, Saturday 3.00pm

He’s not often praised for it because it raises uncomfortable themes but Gerard Piqué once expressed this phenomenon most honestly and accurately. Without quoting Getafe in particular the Barcelona centre half admitted, at the height of his powers around 2011, that there were times when a match, for club or country, held little appeal. His point was that elite footballers can get so used to the ‘champagne’ moments of testing away matches in Milan or Munich, or to Cup semi finals and finals or to games via which the league title is going to be decided that if it’s a cold midweek evening in a little stadium with very few fans, the pitch is lumpy and it’s a commonplace rival with nothing exotic about them then motivation can be hard to dig out.

The general pattern of Getafe games over the last few seasons has established just that pattern for Barça. If they are concentrating, motivated and determined to win then they’ll score four, five or even six against this unloved suburban Madrid team.

Gerard-Pique-Barcelona

But if the Catalans aren’t quite ‘on it’ then they can easily lose or draw. Evidence is at hand in that Getafe drew 2-2 at the Camp Nou last May, a game which cost the title, and won at home as recently as 2011.

Cosmin Contra [what a fearsome flying wing back he was in his day] has made his team hard to beat but goals are their problem. Abdoul Yoda is their main source of goals but has no previous goal record to speak of across his peripatetic career prior to Getafe. Pablo Sarabia does tend to trouble Barça’s defence. Luis Enrique’s equivalents, Leo Messi, Neymar and Luis Suárez, finally all scored in the same game in midweek – something you’d imagine we are about to see happen more regularly. Messi has ten goals and an assist in his last five matches and feels unstoppable.

In terms of the pattern of the game Barcelona have a bad habit of starting slowly, often conceding first, and needing what’s called the ‘remontada’ in Spanish football – a comeback win. It’s not beyond imagination that if Getafe were to take the lead they might damage Barcelona with a draw. But you’d need a creative imagination all the same. Barça to win 3-1 (a 9/1 shot) - Messi, Pedro and Suárez to find the onion bag.

Ref watch: Vicandi Garrido – one match, one defeat with Barcelona [Celta at home]

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Atletico v Villarreal, Sunday 6.00pm

This should be fun. Given Villarreal’s relatively recent emergence as a Spanish power there have only been 26 meetings between the sides but they average over three goals per game in that time.

The Yellow Submarine don’t mind torpedoing the Mattress Makers [Colchoneros] in Madrid every now and then – but they don’t insist on it. Polite. And where the crux of this meeting rests is which of the two sides can best cope with intense midweek football better – a factor which has to favour the Spanish champions.

Atleti may only have drawn 0-0 in the Champions League but it was with Juventus and secured group leadership. Villarreal had the long travel to and from Nicosia, their game was on Thursday night rather than Tuesday and Marcelino chose to use a relatively strong lineup.

That said, Villarreal have rattled in twelve goals in their last five games via seven different scorers – Vietto, Gerard, Uche, Moi Gomez, Cheryshev, Bruno Soriano and Nahuel.

Vital for Atlético to win this one however. Through in Europe, Spanish Supercup holders and the last side to beat Madrid it’s still the case that there’s been a big dip since last season – mostly due to the loss of talent sold in the summer. At this stage a year ago Atleti had won twelve, drawn and lost once each, scored 38 and conceded nine for a goal difference of 29 and 37 points. Now it’s won ten, lost and drawn two each, scored only 27, conceded 12 for a difference of 15 and thirty two points. If that drift continues across the season then the title is out of reach.

Miranda (above) should return and gets the odd set piece goal, Raúl García is due a goal and Antoine Griezmann was rested against Juve so should get significant minutes in this one. 2-1 Atleti for me at 7/1.

Ref watch: Pérez Montero – Eight matches with Atleti, one defeat. Reffed these two sides a couple of seasons ago in a 1-1 draw. Horrible news for Villarreal that it’s Pérez Montero – seven matches and not one win under him. Four defeats, three draws.

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Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday, 8.00pm

The last time an ex Everton manager was in charge of one of these teams in the Basque derby it was all so different. Howard Kendall coached Athletic Bilbao – now it’s David Moyes with Real Sociedad.

Daid-Moyes

Just to add to the Mersey theme the biggest thorn in Kendall’s side back then was former Liverpool striker John Toshack. In charge of Real Sociedad in those late eighties seasons he constantly found a way to beat Kendall’s Athletic in the derby, home or away.

One famous example was in October 1987 when Toshack’s La Real won 4-1 at Kendall’s Athletic with Manchester City Director of Football Txiki Begiristain and Real Sociedad Director of Football Loren both scoring. But another person Toshack tormented as a predecessor to Moyes at La Real was current Athletic coach Ernesto Valverde. When Toshack returned to run things at the Anoeta for the second [but not last] time he won the first Basque derby after his return, in November 1991.

In that Athletic team was a winger who to this day doesn’t know what it feels like to win at the Anoeta – Valverde. As a player he has three draws and three defeats while as a coach with Valencia, Espanyol or Athletic Bilbao three defeats and two draws [including one for Athletic  where his club were two nil up and still lost 3-2]

Result-wise Aritz Aduriz (below, somewhere) is crucial for Athletic. They’ve only scored twice in the 600 minutes they’ve had to play without him this season.

He should start – but how fit is he? Scattered across both squads there are players who’ve scored in this fixture – Muniain, San José, Toquero, Prieto, Vela, Susaeta, Pardo and Iñigo Martínez. But not one with a big track record of rising to the occasion. Agirretxe is out for La Real, as is Mikel and Zaldúa and they fell apart defensively a week ago in Villarreal.

Winning his derby debut would be like winning the Christmas lottery for the Scot – but a point, rather than the jackpot, looks a better prospect and the draw is 11/5.

Ref watch: Fernández Borbalán – twenty six matches with Athletic, eight wins [two of which in the Basque derby], twelve defeats and five red cards. With La Real 20 matches, only four wins – one of which the 3-1 defeat of Barcelona last season.

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Graham Hunter: Why the Dutch may try to settle old scores – but Spain will prove too strong

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It adds deliciously to this game that the two sides haven’t met since that infamous World Cup final four years ago.

Holland were brutal, incurring the wrath of legends of their game like Johan Cruyff and Clarence Seedorf, and lost the match, effectively, because Johnny Heitinga was sent off.

He hauled Andrés Iniesta back once too often, saw a second yellow and when the cross from Fernando Torres came in, late in extra time, Rafa Van der Vaart fell over while trying to deputise for the absent Heitinga and the rest …. is history.

Cesc Fabregas to Iniesta and …. Gol! Gol! Gol! You probably remember it.

Grudge game

All of that is relevant to this game in the clammy heat of Salvador because of discipline.

Even though it’s likely there will be only four Dutch and perhaps seven Spaniards starting this Group B match having lined up for the World Cup final in Soccer City, there is certainly room for grudges.

For De Jong to tangle with Xabi Alonso once more, for Robben to race with Ramos, for Sneijder (who was boiling with rage after the 2010 final when I saw him outside the Dutch dressing room) to tangle with Sergio Busquets.

Losing that final, their second defeat in the world’s ultimate football match, was a bitter blow for the Oranje football nation – those playing and those watching.

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The desire to erase the blemish will be great – maybe overwhelming for some.

More, De Jong’s Bruce Lee chest-high studding of Xabi Alonso’s chest is now so iconic of that final, so famous, that any referee, presented with a De Jong foul on a Spaniard may subconsciously be quicker to ensure he doesn’t join the officiating infamy and thus quicker to show a yellow card.

Refs ARE human after all.

De-Jong-tackle-840

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But, as I say, discipline will give a significant advantage to the team mature enough to display it.

Spain are often thwarted or at least frustrated by packed defences and Louis Van Gaal hasn’t been experimenting with five at the back, ripping up the tactical book of his football life, in order to make Holland more open, more attacking.

So, if you look at Van Gaal’s logic, the last thing he wants is an 11 v 10 situation at any stage in the match.

Strength in numbers

He’ll din it in to his players that they compete, that they make it uncomfortable for Spain – but that they present totally different stats to the last time these sides played when Holland racked up 29 fouls, nine yellow cards and a red.

Give Spain a numerical advantage in an important match and there’s a very high chance you’ll regret it.

From the age of 15 it’s repeated endlessly to Spain’s young talents that it’s a sin to be sent off. To leave your team mates in the lurch. That your place will be hard to win back.

Spain’s last tournament match was blighted by the red card for Gerard Piqué, let’s not forget that, and Del Bosque too will be emphasizing to his men that he’ll be unforgiving of anyone who hands the already threatening Holland XI an added advantage.

Watching the world champion’s training this week I can’t help but suspect that it’s more than just the fact that Spain have only scored 14 of the 25 penalties they’ve been awarded in the Del Bosque reign which has seen them practice so many spot kicks.

Fabregas-and-Silva-Spain

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Cesc Fabregas’ miss against El Salvador last weekend may have reminded the manager that it’s time for Spain to brush up skills which have seen them win shoot outs against Italy (x 2) and Portugal in three of their last five tournaments.

Fine. But there have been so many different players hitting penalties that you’d deduce Vicente Del Bosque’s scouts reckon on Holland’s inexperienced back five giving away a spot kick on Friday evening (8pm).

For those interested the order of priority which Del Bosque has set for penalty takers is: David Villa, Cesc, Alonso and then …. perhaps Ramos? We shall see.

How Spain start looks to be down to a very small refinement in midfield and attack.

Training Day

Anyone who’s seen training would be surprised if the 4-3-3 formation doesn’t line up: Casillas; Azpilicueta, Piqué, Ramos, Alba: Xavi/Koke, Busquets, Alonso; Silva, Costa/Fabregas, Iniesta.

As terrific as Koke has looked in all the work-outs this week, all nimble feet and clever options taken when the ball comes to him plus a robust, shrewd presence in midfield defensive work, Del Bosque thinks so highly of Xavi that it’d be a surprise to see him benched at the start of the tournament.

Rotated as the World Cup evolves? Okay. Regularly playing only 55-65 minutes? Fine. But left out for the first game with all the attendant media coverage. I struggle to imagine it.

Diego-Costa-slider

The ‘centre forward’ position is at least as intriguing. The last major game when Del Bosque was faced with an opponent using five at the back was the opener of Euro 2012 against Italy and he chose to unpick Cesare Prandelli’s side with Cesc Fabregas at ‘false 9′.

It’s clearly an option again and the (soon to be former?) Barcelona man not only scored that day but, with Villa, Iniesta, Silva and Torres, has scored this week in training matches.

The counter to that is that Del Bosque left out a real favourite in Jesús Navas because of fears that he might ‘re-injure’ himself.

Yet Diego Costa was not only included in the 23 man travelling party he started against El Salvador and played the large majority of the match despite having limped off in the Champions League final with the recurrence of a hamstring problem.

Costa’s in the frame

All of that indicates that the Spain manager really wants to use Costa and that the Brazilian-born centre forward presents the type of threat which Spain have shown less regularly in recent years.

Those who played with Costa last Saturday in Washington told me that the ball was played ‘earlier’ to him and from longer distance because he is so good at losing his marker.

Perhaps he starts as a slight favourite to face Holland – but I don’t think the decision will be taken until match-day.

In the Confederations Cup a year ago, Spain began their match with Uruguay with the power and direction of a runaway train.

For 75 minutes it was best to just get out of their way. But they tired and Uruguay defended for their lives to the extend that the match only finished 2-1 with Spain unable to convert footballing dominance into a firm, nerveless, energy-saving win.

I’d see something similar occurring here in Salvador on Friday evening. Those tempted to look down the list of odds for less quoted scorers might be tempted by Pedro.

Pedro-&-Mark-Van-Bommel

Not guarantee of any game time, he’s nevertheless someone who not only MIGHT start – he’s likely to be asked to supply the missing Navas magic by coming on for the last 25 minutes to test Holland with his blistering pace.

He’s also Spain’s top scorer over the last 18 months – burying chances which might have slid past for Barcelona.

A game the holders could lose? Yes, there’s definitely banana-skin potential.

A game they will lose? I’m not too sure about that. Goals from Ramos, Pedro and Robben and Spain off to a better start than four years ago.

  • Spain to win 2-1 is 8/1 with Paddy Power.
  • Pedro to score first 13/2 or anytime 5/2

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Graham Hunter: The Dutch may try to settle old scores – but Spain will prove too strong

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It adds deliciously to this game that the two sides haven’t met since that infamous World Cup final four years ago.

Holland were brutal, incurring the wrath of legends of their game like Johan Cruyff and Clarence Seedorf, and lost the match, effectively, because Johnny Heitinga was sent off.

He hauled Andrés Iniesta back once too often, saw a second yellow and when the cross from Fernando Torres came in, late in extra time, Rafa Van der Vaart fell over while trying to deputise for the absent Heitinga and the rest …. is history.

Cesc Fabregas to Iniesta and …. Gol! Gol! Gol! You probably remember it.

Grudge game

All of that is relevant to this game in the clammy heat of Salvador because of discipline.

Even though it’s likely there will be only four Dutch and perhaps seven Spaniards starting this Group B match having lined up for the World Cup final in Soccer City, there is certainly room for grudges.

For De Jong to tangle with Xabi Alonso once more, for Robben to race with Ramos, for Sneijder (who was boiling with rage after the 2010 final when I saw him outside the Dutch dressing room) to tangle with Sergio Busquets.

Losing that final, their second defeat in the world’s ultimate football match, was a bitter blow for the Oranje football nation – those playing and those watching.

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The desire to erase the blemish will be great – maybe overwhelming for some.

More, De Jong’s Bruce Lee chest-high studding of Xabi Alonso’s chest is now so iconic of that final, so famous, that any referee, presented with a De Jong foul on a Spaniard may subconsciously be quicker to ensure he doesn’t join the officiating infamy and thus quicker to show a yellow card.

Refs ARE human after all.

De-Jong-tackle-840

  • Will it all kick off on DESKTOP | MOBILE 

But, as I say, discipline will give a significant advantage to the team mature enough to display it.

Spain are often thwarted or at least frustrated by packed defences and Louis Van Gaal hasn’t been experimenting with five at the back, ripping up the tactical book of his football life, in order to make Holland more open, more attacking.

So, if you look at Van Gaal’s logic, the last thing he wants is an 11 v 10 situation at any stage in the match.

Strength in numbers

He’ll din it in to his players that they compete, that they make it uncomfortable for Spain – but that they present totally different stats to the last time these sides played when Holland racked up 29 fouls, nine yellow cards and a red.

Give Spain a numerical advantage in an important match and there’s a very high chance you’ll regret it.

From the age of 15 it’s repeated endlessly to Spain’s young talents that it’s a sin to be sent off. To leave your team mates in the lurch. That your place will be hard to win back.

Spain’s last tournament match was blighted by the red card for Gerard Piqué, let’s not forget that, and Del Bosque too will be emphasizing to his men that he’ll be unforgiving of anyone who hands the already threatening Holland XI an added advantage.

Watching the world champion’s training this week I can’t help but suspect that it’s more than just the fact that Spain have only scored 14 of the 25 penalties they’ve been awarded in the Del Bosque reign which has seen them practice so many spot kicks.

Fabregas-and-Silva-Spain

  • Shoot over to all the latest odds on DESKTOP | MOBILE 

Cesc Fabregas’ miss against El Salvador last weekend may have reminded the manager that it’s time for Spain to brush up skills which have seen them win shoot outs against Italy (x 2) and Portugal in three of their last five tournaments.

Fine. But there have been so many different players hitting penalties that you’d deduce Vicente Del Bosque’s scouts reckon on Holland’s inexperienced back five giving away a spot kick on Friday evening (8pm).

For those interested the order of priority which Del Bosque has set for penalty takers is: David Villa, Cesc, Alonso and then …. perhaps Ramos? We shall see.

How Spain start looks to be down to a very small refinement in midfield and attack.

Training Day

Anyone who’s seen training would be surprised if the 4-3-3 formation doesn’t line up: Casillas; Azpilicueta, Piqué, Ramos, Alba: Xavi/Koke, Busquets, Alonso; Silva, Costa/Fabregas, Iniesta.

As terrific as Koke has looked in all the work-outs this week, all nimble feet and clever options taken when the ball comes to him plus a robust, shrewd presence in midfield defensive work, Del Bosque thinks so highly of Xavi that it’d be a surprise to see him benched at the start of the tournament.

Rotated as the World Cup evolves? Okay. Regularly playing only 55-65 minutes? Fine. But left out for the first game with all the attendant media coverage. I struggle to imagine it.

Diego-Costa-slider

The ‘centre forward’ position is at least as intriguing. The last major game when Del Bosque was faced with an opponent using five at the back was the opener of Euro 2012 against Italy and he chose to unpick Cesare Prandelli’s side with Cesc Fabregas at ‘false 9′.

It’s clearly an option again and the (soon to be former?) Barcelona man not only scored that day but, with Villa, Iniesta, Silva and Torres, has scored this week in training matches.

The counter to that is that Del Bosque left out a real favourite in Jesús Navas because of fears that he might ‘re-injure’ himself.

Yet Diego Costa was not only included in the 23 man travelling party he started against El Salvador and played the large majority of the match despite having limped off in the Champions League final with the recurrence of a hamstring problem.

Costa’s in the frame

All of that indicates that the Spain manager really wants to use Costa and that the Brazilian-born centre forward presents the type of threat which Spain have shown less regularly in recent years.

Those who played with Costa last Saturday in Washington told me that the ball was played ‘earlier’ to him and from longer distance because he is so good at losing his marker.

Perhaps he starts as a slight favourite to face Holland – but I don’t think the decision will be taken until match-day.

In the Confederations Cup a year ago, Spain began their match with Uruguay with the power and direction of a runaway train.

For 75 minutes it was best to just get out of their way. But they tired and Uruguay defended for their lives to the extend that the match only finished 2-1 with Spain unable to convert footballing dominance into a firm, nerveless, energy-saving win.

I’d see something similar occurring here in Salvador on Friday evening. Those tempted to look down the list of odds for less quoted scorers might be tempted by Pedro.

Pedro-&-Mark-Van-Bommel

Not guarantee of any game time, he’s nevertheless someone who not only MIGHT start – he’s likely to be asked to supply the missing Navas magic by coming on for the last 25 minutes to test Holland with his blistering pace.

He’s also Spain’s top scorer over the last 18 months – burying chances which might have slid past for Barcelona.

A game the holders could lose? Yes, there’s definitely banana-skin potential.

A game they will lose? I’m not too sure about that. Goals from Ramos, Pedro and Robben and Spain off to a better start than four years ago.

  • Spain to win 2-1 is 8/1 with Paddy Power.
  • Pedro to score first 13/2 or anytime 5/2

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Davies has no scores to settle

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Bolton skipper Kevin Davies says he has nothing to prove to Roy Hodgson ahead of his side’s clash with Liverpool (Bolton 11/5, Draw 11/5, Liverpool 13/10 – Match Betting).

Hodgson signed Davies when he was Blackburn manager 12 years ago, but the move did not work out for the striker.

But while Davies (8/1 to score first goal) says he hopes Hodgson feels sick after today’s game, he did not criticise the manager for what happened during his time at Ewood Park.

Davies said: “Blackburn at the time was a difficult place and I wasn’t particularly happy, but the experience made me the man and player I am today.

“Roy Hodgson is a top bloke and brilliant coach. I hope he’s whingeing after the match just as other managers have when we’ve had big scalps in the past.”

Hodgson admits he remains a big fan of Davies, who recent earned his first cap for England (1/6 to win Group G) in the Euro 2012 qualifier against Montenegro.

“Kevin has done really well for himself and he is a fantastic footballer,” Hodgson told Liverpoolfc.tv.

“A lot of Bolton’s success has been largely due to the fact that he’s been such a handful up front. He has scored goals and created so many goals so he is a player I have a very special eye open for.”

Meanwhile, England international Gary Cahill says the Wanderers faithful have played a big part in making sure that the Trotters are unbeaten at the Reebok Stadium.

The defender told the club’s website: “The support this season has been superb. It’s important that we go out there and give 110 per cent and put in a performance that they deserve having paid their money to come and watch us every week.”

Bolton boss Owen Coyle has confirmed that striker Ivan Klasnic, who was suspended for the 1-1 draw at Wigan last weekend, is available for this afternoon’s clash against Liverpool.

Joey O’Brien, Ricardo Gardner, Jlloyd Samuel and Sean Davis are all still sidelined with long-term injuries, so Coyle has a settled squad to choose from.

Liverpool will give full-back Glen Johnson a fitness test prior to the match – the England international has missed the last three games with a thigh injury.

Dirk Kuyt is sidelined with a knee problem but is making good progress, while Daniel Agger is still missing with the calf injury which has kept him out for the past month.

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