The post Watch: Graham Hunter sees tough games for two of La Liga’s top three and a comfortable stroll for the other appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
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Gary Neville is going to win at some stage. But I’ve almost been the kiss of death for him recently, so I’m avoiding Valencia totally this week after their humiliation. Instead, I’ve looked through the odds and picked out a nice 4/1 double involving Real and Barcelona.
Granada have beaten both Real and Barcelona at home over the last few seasons. They did win their last game as well against Sevilla thanks to a goal from the brilliantly named Isaac Success.
Real are starting to flex their muscles at the top though. A minor slip up against Valencia should be put right on Sunday. Back a Real win with both teams to score. Success is to score again, maybe look at Modric for Los Blancos
Zinedine Zidane will be hoping for a slip up by Luis Enrique’s side, but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Barca have hit top form, and destroyed Valencia during the week. Even when 7 goals up, they still went forward with quick and fast attacks, looking for more.
Could Guiseppe Rossi debut in the best way possible? Maybe. He’s to score anytime for Levante. I think the bet to take is over 2.5 goals and a Barcelona victory. They’ve got the lead at the top now and they very rarely relinquish them.
Eibar have been the surprise package in La Liga this season. You could fit the entire population of the city inside the Calderon and have space. Their ground only holds 7,00 people, and somehow they sit 8th in the table. They go to Atleti this week ont he back of three straight wins, scoring 11 goals in the process. Borja Baston got four of those and is Eibar’s top scorer.
One problem. He’s on loan from Atleti, meaning that Eibar will have to stump up cash if they want him to play against his parent club, who are missing a whole host of players. If he plays he scores. But back Atleti to win by one goal at
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At the start of the new year there’s a three-horse race for the La Liga title. Barcelona’s attacking trio of Suarez, Messi and Neymar are scoring at will and even though things aren’t quite right at the Bernabeu Real are keeping close to the defending champions. And we can’t overlook Atletico Madrid. The 2013-14 champions look like they’ll be there or thereabouts come squeaky bum time, or whatever the Spanish equivalent is. Graham Hunter takes a look at how they’ll all kick off 2016.
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Win this and Atlético’s last few days will have been like the climactic end-game in the Godfather when Michael Corleone hacks down every single one of his would be rivals.
Both Valencia and Sevilla legitimately have their eye on clawing points from the big three and, who knows, possibly testing Atlético’s chin with a few hooks and jabs across the season. Probe for weaknesses.
But Diego ‘El Cholo’ Simeone was back from his ban last weekend. The man in black walked the line again. Or prowled. Result? Sevilla were ripped to shreds – 4-0.
Midweek Atlético went toe-to-toe with the runaway Italian champions in the Champions League and cut Juve down to size too.
The Tattaglias and Barzinis down. Just Moe Greene left.
Valencia. They shouldn’t be credible for third place but if Peter Lim’s takeover is confirmed and if Jorge Mendes keeps putting his formidable transfer market power at Valencia’s disposal then you never know.
Paco Alcácer has four goals and a goal assist in his last five games while Rodrigo, a Real Madrid youth product, would love to send one into Atlético’s ribs.
They’ll face Miguel Ángel Moyà who’s time as Valencia’s keeper was plagued by both injuries and doubts about his top level mentality – will he fluff his return lines or steal the show?
Atlético continue to produce set-play gems and, importantly, to win the second ball around the box. Both centre backs, Mandzukic, Raúl García and the wonderful Arda all look like scoring value in, potentially, a 2-2 draw.
A match between two clubs in a race to see which one can be first to resemble Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.
The Catalans spent well over €100m in the summer.
Paco Jémez has had to cope with incorporating 17 new players, swapped, borrowed or found down the back of the sofa. You’d think that the visitors might get there first.
But it’s Rayo’s desire to reproduce the best of the Guardiola ideal at Vallecas which tells you this should be a corker of a game.
So successful is Jémez that in 2013 Rayo ended Barcelona’s 317 game run since 2008 when they had always dominated possession. But despite owning the ball for 54% of the time they still lost 4-0.
Rayo don’t have a Petrodollar billionaire owner like PSG but their scouts will have seen the Parisians showing, in winning 3-2 on Tuesday, that if you run at the Blaugrana full backs, if you get quality crosses into the box – fun things can result.
Leo Baptistão has not only scored four times [two off his right foot, one off his left and one header] in two consecutive wins over Athletic and Levante, but he’s precisely the quick footed, hard running striker who might cause danger.
Worth a look for a goal as is Alberto Bueno [Bertie Good] who has four in six and who won the 2006 European U19 Championship with Juan Mata and Gerard Piqué for Spain against Scotland.
Jordi Alba, Andrés Iniesta and Pedro are all notably lacking form for Barcelona who are neither invulnerable nor as intimidating now as they once were.
But Rayo’s attacking, front foot, ‘un-park the bus and drive it through the opposition defence’ will also allow space for Leo Messi, Neymar, Munir and possibly even Xavi who looks fresh and with a free kick goal in him pretty soon.
There should be goals, entertainment and three points for the league leaders despite the whiff of a shock.
Okay – quick quiz question. What links multimillionaire Thomas Gravesen, celebrity PSG fan David Beckham and racehorse owner Michael ‘Go on my son’ Owen?
Answer – they all started for Real Madrid the last time Athletic Bilbao won at the Bernabéu.
Nearly a decade ago.
Not a good for anyone who’s tempted to oppose Madrid based on the fact that this is last season’s fourth-placed club meeting the side which finished just a place above them.
And, just like in real life, the news gets worse and worse.
During that decade Madrid [home and away] have scored three or more goals against Athletic on 13 occasions. Defences on top… etc.
Right now the Basque club: sit a point off the bottom three, have only beaten Levante in La Liga, who ARE in the bottom three, this season; was beaten on its last trip to Madrid, ten days ago against Rayo, and its chief goal threat, Aritz Aduriz, has only ever scored once against Los Blancos – four and a half years ago for Mallorca.
After Athletic lost 2-1 to BATE on Tuesday their coach, Ernesto ‘The Ant’ Valverde savaged them: “We were super-weak, lacking in intensity and virtually unrecognisable”
Madrid, after 15 goals in three league games, centre their concerns around the rampant Cristiano Ronaldo.
He left the Ludogorets midweek win with a sore Achilles, victim of a studding, and thus whether or how he plays is of extreme interest. Last time he was absent for Madrid… they lost.
There is one interesting glimmer for the Basques – that 0-2 win back in February 2005 was coached by Valverde during his first spell in charge.
What’s that? You want another straw to cling to?
Fine. Madrid conceded YET another set piece goal to a header against Ludogorets in midweek, Aduriz’s only goal against Madrid was a header and he’s one of Europe’s finest exponents of the nod to the net.
More? Referee Alex Hernández Hernández in his two seasons in Spain’s elite has been in charge of Madrid three times – and they’ve lost twice.
To Malága and Celta.
And he sent two of Athletic’s opponents off in his first term in the big time.
That aside it looks like Madrid should score three, that Karim Benzema’s on bouncy form and is worth an ‘anytime’ punt [as is Ibai Gomez for the visitors] and that one of Spain’s champions league representatives might even be in a relegation position come late Sunday night.
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The Premier League reaches its conclusion on Sunday and, with plenty still at stake, here we pick out three big issues still to be resolved this weekend.
1 – The destination of the title
Manchester City (1/10 to win Premier League) are very much in the driving seat to win their first top-flight title since 1968 and know a win over QPR at home will finally see them over the line ahead of local rivals Manchester United (11/2).
In what has been one of the most unpredictable races of the last few years, Roberto Mancini’s side appeared to have thrown away their chance when losing at Arsenal in April, but United’s slip-ups at Wigan, at home to Everton and then in the derby has given the Blues the edge again.
Relegation-threatened QPR have plenty to play for themselves but City should keep up their proud unbeaten home record and get the win required to render United’s result at Sunderland meaningless.
The smart money is on both United and City to win to hand the latter the trophy on goal difference but, after one of the most unpredictable seasons in years, it would be safe to say neither of the top two will be taking anything for granted this weekend.
2 – One more side to be relegated
Wolves and Blackburn are already down and either QPR or Bolton will be joining them in the Championship next season.
Mathematically, Aston Villa can also still be demoted, but that would take a 17-goal swing so it’s a straight fight between the R’s and the Trotters to see who finishes 18th.
Bolton (1/3 to be relegated) currently sit in the final relegation place, two points behind Rangers (9/4), and face a tough trip to Stoke City on Sunday, knowing they need a win to move above Mark Hughes’ side.
Hughes goes to the Etihad to face his former club and will do well to get anything out of that but Bolton winning at the Britannia also looks a long shot so it could be curtains for Owen Coyle’s side.
3 – Third place up for grabs
Arsenal, Spurs (1/10 – top four finish) and Newcastle can all still secure third and, with it, definitely a place in the Champions League next season.
Chelsea’s Champions League final against Bayern Munich a week on Saturday means that only third is guaranteed a place in next season’s competition because if Roberto Di Matteo’s men win in Munich they will take the fourth place available to Premier League sides.
Alan Pardew’s Magpies (9/2 – top four finish) have had a season beyond their wildest dreams and have stayed in contention for the top four right up to the end when many thought their season would tail off.
They visit Everton, themselves wanting a win to ensure they finish above Liverpool, knowing this is a tough last-day assignment. A win and poor results for the north London duo could hand them third but it looks very unlikely.
Spurs, meanwhile, have picked up again since Harry Redknapp was overlooked for the England job and host London rivals Fulham. They should come out on top in this one and hope arch-rivals Arsenal slip up at West Brom.
The Gunners are favourites to claim third, though, and go to the Black Country on Sunday hoping to spoil Roy Hodgson’s farewell at the Hawthorns.
It will not be easy for Arsene Wenger’s side as the Baggies are sure to do all they can to finish on a high in front of the departing England boss but, with Robin van Persie aiming to equal the league top-scorer record with 31 goals, expect Arsenal to do it.
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With 20 games now gone in the Premier League this season for all clubs apart from Tottenham and Everton, there are five sides who need to start winning now if they are to escape the drama of the relegation dogfight sooner rather than later.
Just three points separate rock-bottom Blackburn and fifth-from-bottom Wolves, with QPR, Bolton and Wigan sandwiched between the Ewood Park and Molineux outfits, although there is every chance teams higher in the table could plummet in the second half of the season.
However, for now the alarms bells will be ringing at the current bottom five, with transfer-window dealings and managerial changes very much on the footballing agenda.
WOLVES
Mick McCarthy’s men are in trouble largely because of a terrible away record which shows they have won just once in ten games and have scored just eight times on the road.
But they have already been to the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea, so surely things will only get better.
Time will tell but a trip to Tottenham this weekend is unlikely to see them start edging their way up the table.
Drop odds: 6/4
Verdict: DOWN
QPR
The Loftus Road outfit have ‘blinked first’ after sacking Neil Warnock on Sunday and now it seems Mark Hughes will succeed him in the W12 hot seat.
‘Sparky’ will need to hit the ground running to halt the Hoops’ alarming run of bad form – especially at home – although his record will command instant respect in the dressing room.
QPR need a striker, centre-half and midfielder as a bare minimum in January to give the squad a boost, while Hughes must get the best out of Shaun Wright-Phillips and Adel Taarabt to name just two players.
Drop odds: 15/8
Verdict: SAFE
BOLTON
The Trotters thumped QPR on the opening day in London but it has been downhill all the way ever since and it looks like star defender Gary Cahill will be on his way this month.
Boss Owen Coyle has a lot of players out of contract in the summer and has already told many of them they are playing for their futures.
But their chance to sign pre-contract agreements elsewhere from January 1 might just backfire on the club and make the slide into the Championship a very possible outcome.
Drop odds: 4/6
Verdict: DOWN
WIGAN
Roberto Martinez seems to enjoy a close relationship with chairman Dave Whelan and it has already survived more than one brush with the drop out of the Premier League.
Somehow Latics seems to carve out results when they need them and it would be a foolish man to doubt the talents of the Spaniard to motivate his men.
Wigan only really get by thanks to Whelan and the fact they have sold on players for big profits and that brings its own problems, but relegation can be staved off again this time around.
Drop odds: 1/2
Verdict: SAFE
BLACKBURN
The fact Warnock went before unpopular Scot Steve Kean is a fact many football fans will be struggling to get their heads around this week.
Add into the mix the fact Rovers have beaten Arsenal and Manchester United in just three Premier League wins all season and the head scratching could lead to borderline insanity.
However, Kean, who also got a pay rise at the end of 2011, remains in a job and would surely have gone before now if owners Venky’s did not think he was the right man.
Drop odds: 1/2
Verdict: DOWN
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With a big footballing year ahead, we look at three of the names that could have a big say in the domestic and international game in 2012. As the Premier League, Champions League and Euro 2012 issues get resolved, this trio could play a big role.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
The Arsenal youngster is slowly starting to make an impact at the Emirates following his summer move from Southampton. With the Gunners still fighting on three fronts, Oxlade-Chamberlain could find himself coming to the fore, especially if Arsenal (6/5 Top Four Finish) suffer key injuries.
The inconsistent form of Theo Walcott is another factor which could lead to more game-time for the winger, who has scored twice in five appearances this season. The 18-year-old certainly looks the part and may even be an outside bet to make the England squad for Euro 2012 (England 11/8 Group D Winners), should Arsenal enjoy a some trophy success.
Arsene Wenger has already alluded to the fact that Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed him and although normally wary to over-play his teenage stars, the Frenchman could be tempted to use his blistering pace and freshness in key games towards the end of the season.
Mario Balotelli
Love him or hate him, you can’t ignore Mario Balotelli. Opinion is divided as to whether he is a liability or a genius, with Roberto Mancini holding the answer.
The City boss is probably the only current manager able to get the best out of the striker, having worked with him before at Inter Milan. With Carlos Tevez set to leave in January and City (8/13 Premier League Outright) unlikely to splash the cash again in the New Year, Balotelli could have a big say in the destination of the Premier League title.
On the plus side, his goals and performances in recent months have been outstanding. He shone in the 6-1 win at rivals United and his cheeky finish against Norwich summed up his ability. The negatives are there to see as well though, with his daft sending off at Liverpool almost costing his team.
The 21-year-old is a likely inclusion in the Italy squad (14/1 Tournament Winner) for the European Championship and he will be flying should he have already collected a Premier League winners medal.
Connor Wickham
The young striker could yet hold the key to Sunderland’s top flight survival, with Martin O’Neill selecting him for his first two games as manager before injury struck. The capture from Ipswich was used sparingly during the reign of Steve Bruce and that now looks an unwise move.
Bruce attempted to ease Wickham into Premier League life, but with a lack of attacking options, the striker should have been starting sooner for the Black Cats (13/2 to be relegated). The 18-year-old has already impressed for England Under-21’s and in brief glimpses, has suggested that he can repay the £8million that Sunderland paid for him.
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There will be no better yardstick for England to assess where they stand in world football than when they take on the mighty Spain at Wembley on Saturday evening, with the kick-off at 5.15.
Vicente Del Bosque’s men comfortably top the world rankings as both world and European champions and are the 5/2 favourites for more glory in Poland and Ukraine next summer, which is no surprise having romped through their qualifying group with a 100% record.
Of course, the groups are not necessarily the hardest for the seeds to make it through as winners but England still managed to look unconvincing at times in Group G, despite ultimately finishing six points clear.
Fabio Capello’s men could not beat runners-up Montenegro home or away, while Switzerland also took a point from their Wembley venture after letting a two-goal lead slip.
Wales were perhaps unlucky to get nothing from their trip to England and Capello has intimated in the past that his players feel the pressure more so at home, which does not augur well for the visit of the best side in the world.
There will undoubtedly be plenty who will see the fact that Spain are priced up in the match betting at 5/6 as a good thing, with England a huge 10/3 to make home ‘advantage’ count and the draw is on offer at 5/2.
There will not be too many who would argue with the odds, given the fact that the Spanish side put out Wembley is going to be based largely around the galaxy of stars at Barcelona, regarded as the best side in the world now, and arguably ever in the history of the game.
Real Madrid are not too shabby either while David Silva, who is currently tearing up the Premier League with Manchester City, is merely a fringe player for his national side, finding it hard to break through into the starting team on a regular basis.
By contrast, England will be without a number of their more experienced players as Wayne Rooney has been left out, while the likes of Rio Ferdinand and Steven Gerrard have been ruled out through form and fitness respectively – and captain John Terry will only be on the bench.
Now that may work in Capello’s favour as the players on show will be looking to prove their worth ahead of the Euro 2012 finals next year and will be keen to make an impression, while they will not be weighed down by previous failures – such as the disastrous World Cup campaign last summer.
England have enjoyed some degree of success with new players breaking into the side but experience counts for a lot, particularly against such a strong side as Spain, and it would be a brave man to be confident in supporting the home side, even at the price.
There have been suggestions from the Spanish players that they will not be expecting an easy ride in London, but Del Bosque’s men should ultimately prove too strong.
However, the Three Lions may at least be able to keep it close on Saturday with none of Spain’s last three victories on the bounce being by more than two goals (Under 2.5 goals 8/11, Over 2.5 goals Evens).
David Villa and Fernando Llorente scored the goals in a 2-0 win in February 2009, but both successes prior to that were by a solitary strike, including Spain’s last visit to England in 2007 – although that game was played at Old Trafford.
Villa is the current 5/1 favourite in the FIrst/Last Goalscorer betting, while he is 11/8 in the Anytime Scorer market, alongside Chelsea’s Fernando Torres, but it may pay to take a chance at bigger prices with Silva, who bagged twice in the recent win over Scotland including the first goal, available at 8/1 to open the scoring.
Darren Bent, who has scored four in his last five internationals, is expected to lead what will be a very inexperienced attack and is priced at 8/1, alongside Daniel Sturridge, to get England up and running with the first goal and 3/1 to break his Wembley duck and score at all during the 90 minutes.
However, recent history suggests England will find it hard and Spain are available at 2/1 to win to nil, while punters can get 9/2 on a 1-0 scoreline for Del Bosque’s men and 13/2 on 2-0.
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Manchester United veteran Paul Scholes has admitted that he regrets turning down the opportunity to play for England (9/1 to win the 2012 European Championships) at the World Cup in South Africa this summer.
The midfielder was believed to have been contacted before the tournament by national boss Fabio Capello who wanted to use the player’s experience for the major competition.
However Scholes declined the chance to play for England with his priorities set on spending time with his family before the start of yet another season with United.
The 35-year-old had to watch as the Three Lions scraped through the group stages of the tournament before being knocked out by old rivals Germany in the first knockout round.
Scholes has since revealed that it was Capello’s assistant Franco Baldini who spoke to him in an attempt to bring the player out of international retirement.
He said: “I said no, but not straight away.
“If I’d have had a couple of weeks to make a decision I would definitely have gone.
“And watching the World Cup I wish I had gone. Following England’s display, people said I must be thankful that I wasn’t involved.”
“I can honestly say that isn’t the case,” he added.
England could have used a player like Scholes as they lacked a cutting edge in South Africa, only scoring three goals in the tournament.
However the United veteran will be fresh and ready for the new Premier League season.
The Red Devils will begin their top flight campaign when they take on Newcastle United at Old Trafford on Monday (Man Utd 2/9, draw 5/1, Newcastle Utd 12/1).
United will be looking to win back the Premier League title from rivals Chelsea who won 6-0 against West Brom on the opening day of the season but Scholes is not worried about the Blues favourite tag.
He said: “That doesn’t worry me.
“The three seasons in a row we won the league I don’t think many people fancied us.
“The more people who don’t think we are going to win it the better.”
This could be the midfielder’s last season with the club who have already won the FA Community Shield after beating Chelsea 3-1.
Scholes along with the likes of Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville could all be coming to the end of their time at Old Trafford in a playing capacity with positions in coaching roles a possibility.
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England may have had a disastrous World Cup, but for three Englishmen the tournament will end on a high (England 9/1 to win Euro 2012).
Rotherham-born Howard Webb has been chosen to referee Sunday’s World Cup final between Spain and Holland in Johannesburg (Holland 13/5, draw 12/5, Spain 21/20).
The 38-year-old will be joined by his English assistants, Michael Mullarkey and Darren Cann.
Webb is the first Englishman to referee the final since Jack Taylor took charge of the Holland v West Germany game in 1974.
He has refereed three World Cup matches in South Africa and has neither shown a red card nor awarded a penalty.
However, Webb has handed out an average of 5.67 bookings per game – the second highest tally in the tournament.
Webb made his World Cup finals debut in Spain’s shock 1-0 defeat by Switzerland.
He was also in charge for Slovakia’s 3-2 victory against Italy and was praised for his handling of a dramatic finale to the match.
Taylor said Webb had been “almost perfect” in the three games he has officiated so far.
“I’ve known Howard for a long time,” Taylor told the BBC. “I’ve seen him as a young referee and I’ve seen him come through, I’ve seen his ability.
“He’s had three games and he’s been almost perfect.
“He’s fit, he’s strong, he’s diplomatic, he reads the game terribly well, in my opinion they couldn’t pick a better man.”
Webb’s achievement comes off the back of a highly successful season for him and his assistants after they officiated the Champions League final in May when Inter Milan beat Bayern Munich 2-0 in Madrid.
Premier League referees chief Mike Riley says those experiences mean all three men will be more than prepared for such a high-profile match.
“As a team they will be prepared for the challenges and I’m sure they will be more than looking forward to the occasion,” he told the BBC.
Webb, a former police officer from Rotherham, started officiating in the Northern Counties League in the mid-1990s.
He has been a Premier League referee since 2003 and took charge of the 2007 Carling Cup final and the 2009 FA Cup final.
One of Webb’s assistants, Mullarkey, recently revealed how Fifa training sessions had included preparation for the noise of the vuvuzelas in South Africa.
Mullarkey said: “When we’re doing our training exercises Fifa is actually playing recorded sounds of vuvuzelas through the speakers.
“For three hours a day we’re exposed to that sound which helps preparation.”
Meanwhile, Italian Roberto Rosetti quit refereeing on Thursday but said his decision had nothing to do with allowing a clearly offside goal in the World Cup.
The 42-year-old, who took charge of the Euro 2008 final, has opted to retire and become the referee designator for Serie B less than two weeks after Carlos Tevez’s goal was allowed to stand in Argentina’s 3-1 win over Mexico in the last 16.
“The disappointment of the World Cup did not influence my decision,” Rosetti said.
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