Monthly Archives: January 2015

Graham Hunter: Isco inferno can set Bale on fire with this 3/1 Friday night cracker

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Almería v Real Madrid, Friday 19.45

We’d all like to know the truth. What the hell is the magic elixir that allows a group of players poor enough to get the previous coach sacked to suddenly produce a power-play in the first game under new management and perform like world-beaters?

It has happened throughout the history of football but the most recent example was the Real Sociedad shirkers getting Jagoba Arrasate the heave-ho and then going out and beating the Spanish champions within a couple of days under the temporary control of Asier Santana.

So, Almería have eschewed the normal logic of letting Fran Rodríguez take a doing in this match against the European champions and THEN sacking him so that the new guy has a less fearsome start. Miguel Rivera is Johnny Two-Jobs this weekend, running the first team’s attempt to knock Madrid off their stride tonight and then back in the saddle with Almería B on Saturday afternoon against Granada B.

“It’s like winning the lottery,” reckons Rivera, whose cup minnows, Ecija, drew with Real Madrid 1-1 back in 2006.

In his favour should be the fact that this lot very nearly took three points off Barcelona a couple of weeks ago and that while Almería have won just once in 10 attempts [all time] against Madrid, since 2008 there have been two draws and a home win between the clubs at this stadium.

Which is not to ignore the fact that unless Madrid have their mind on the impending flight to Morocco for the World Club Championship then they’ll win. By hook or crook.

The quality of their football has dipped from boiling to simmering over the last couple of games but the flood of goals has, largely continued.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Ronaldo was niggly in midweek against Ludogorets, partly at Gareth Bale’s occasional choice to favour attempting to score ahead of feeding the team leader.

  • On that subject, IF you want to ignore Ronaldo’s goal chances in this extraordinarily prolific season of his [over 30 goals in all competitions by early December] then Bale scored home and away against Almería last season, as did Isco who added a clutch of goal assists too.
  • Karim Benzema interests – eight in 12 in La Liga, five in five in the Champions League. It might just be that if Bale and Ronaldo aren’t feeding each other goals with the same vigor, perhaps the Frenchman will be the beneficiary of their assists.

Madrid by two, Isco and Benzema good candidates, but first goal important and for those in-play keep a close eye on whether players who have an impending date with a world title perhaps hold a little back. (Under Match Specials: Madrid to win by exactly two goals is 3/1)

Ref Álvarez Izquierdo: 11 matches with Madrid, eight wins, one draw two defeats – away to Celta and Sevilla.

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Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico -1.0 to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

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Graham Hunter: A cheeky 9/1 punt in Barcelona’s trip to Getafe, while David Moyes may settle for a derby day draw

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Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico (-1) to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

Getafe v Barcelona, Saturday 3.00pm

He’s not often praised for it because it raises uncomfortable themes but Gerard Piqué once expressed this phenomenon most honestly and accurately. Without quoting Getafe in particular the Barcelona centre half admitted, at the height of his powers around 2011, that there were times when a match, for club or country, held little appeal. His point was that elite footballers can get so used to the ‘champagne’ moments of testing away matches in Milan or Munich, or to Cup semi finals and finals or to games via which the league title is going to be decided that if it’s a cold midweek evening in a little stadium with very few fans, the pitch is lumpy and it’s a commonplace rival with nothing exotic about them then motivation can be hard to dig out.

The general pattern of Getafe games over the last few seasons has established just that pattern for Barça. If they are concentrating, motivated and determined to win then they’ll score four, five or even six against this unloved suburban Madrid team.

Gerard-Pique-Barcelona

But if the Catalans aren’t quite ‘on it’ then they can easily lose or draw. Evidence is at hand in that Getafe drew 2-2 at the Camp Nou last May, a game which cost the title, and won at home as recently as 2011.

Cosmin Contra [what a fearsome flying wing back he was in his day] has made his team hard to beat but goals are their problem. Abdoul Yoda is their main source of goals but has no previous goal record to speak of across his peripatetic career prior to Getafe. Pablo Sarabia does tend to trouble Barça’s defence. Luis Enrique’s equivalents, Leo Messi, Neymar and Luis Suárez, finally all scored in the same game in midweek – something you’d imagine we are about to see happen more regularly. Messi has ten goals and an assist in his last five matches and feels unstoppable.

In terms of the pattern of the game Barcelona have a bad habit of starting slowly, often conceding first, and needing what’s called the ‘remontada’ in Spanish football – a comeback win. It’s not beyond imagination that if Getafe were to take the lead they might damage Barcelona with a draw. But you’d need a creative imagination all the same. Barça to win 3-1 (a 9/1 shot) - Messi, Pedro and Suárez to find the onion bag.

Ref watch: Vicandi Garrido – one match, one defeat with Barcelona [Celta at home]

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Atletico v Villarreal, Sunday 6.00pm

This should be fun. Given Villarreal’s relatively recent emergence as a Spanish power there have only been 26 meetings between the sides but they average over three goals per game in that time.

The Yellow Submarine don’t mind torpedoing the Mattress Makers [Colchoneros] in Madrid every now and then – but they don’t insist on it. Polite. And where the crux of this meeting rests is which of the two sides can best cope with intense midweek football better – a factor which has to favour the Spanish champions.

Atleti may only have drawn 0-0 in the Champions League but it was with Juventus and secured group leadership. Villarreal had the long travel to and from Nicosia, their game was on Thursday night rather than Tuesday and Marcelino chose to use a relatively strong lineup.

That said, Villarreal have rattled in twelve goals in their last five games via seven different scorers – Vietto, Gerard, Uche, Moi Gomez, Cheryshev, Bruno Soriano and Nahuel.

Vital for Atlético to win this one however. Through in Europe, Spanish Supercup holders and the last side to beat Madrid it’s still the case that there’s been a big dip since last season – mostly due to the loss of talent sold in the summer. At this stage a year ago Atleti had won twelve, drawn and lost once each, scored 38 and conceded nine for a goal difference of 29 and 37 points. Now it’s won ten, lost and drawn two each, scored only 27, conceded 12 for a difference of 15 and thirty two points. If that drift continues across the season then the title is out of reach.

Miranda (above) should return and gets the odd set piece goal, Raúl García is due a goal and Antoine Griezmann was rested against Juve so should get significant minutes in this one. 2-1 Atleti for me at 7/1.

Ref watch: Pérez Montero – Eight matches with Atleti, one defeat. Reffed these two sides a couple of seasons ago in a 1-1 draw. Horrible news for Villarreal that it’s Pérez Montero – seven matches and not one win under him. Four defeats, three draws.

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Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday, 8.00pm

The last time an ex Everton manager was in charge of one of these teams in the Basque derby it was all so different. Howard Kendall coached Athletic Bilbao – now it’s David Moyes with Real Sociedad.

Daid-Moyes

Just to add to the Mersey theme the biggest thorn in Kendall’s side back then was former Liverpool striker John Toshack. In charge of Real Sociedad in those late eighties seasons he constantly found a way to beat Kendall’s Athletic in the derby, home or away.

One famous example was in October 1987 when Toshack’s La Real won 4-1 at Kendall’s Athletic with Manchester City Director of Football Txiki Begiristain and Real Sociedad Director of Football Loren both scoring. But another person Toshack tormented as a predecessor to Moyes at La Real was current Athletic coach Ernesto Valverde. When Toshack returned to run things at the Anoeta for the second [but not last] time he won the first Basque derby after his return, in November 1991.

In that Athletic team was a winger who to this day doesn’t know what it feels like to win at the Anoeta – Valverde. As a player he has three draws and three defeats while as a coach with Valencia, Espanyol or Athletic Bilbao three defeats and two draws [including one for Athletic  where his club were two nil up and still lost 3-2]

Result-wise Aritz Aduriz (below, somewhere) is crucial for Athletic. They’ve only scored twice in the 600 minutes they’ve had to play without him this season.

He should start – but how fit is he? Scattered across both squads there are players who’ve scored in this fixture – Muniain, San José, Toquero, Prieto, Vela, Susaeta, Pardo and Iñigo Martínez. But not one with a big track record of rising to the occasion. Agirretxe is out for La Real, as is Mikel and Zaldúa and they fell apart defensively a week ago in Villarreal.

Winning his derby debut would be like winning the Christmas lottery for the Scot – but a point, rather than the jackpot, looks a better prospect and the draw is 11/5.

Ref watch: Fernández Borbalán – twenty six matches with Athletic, eight wins [two of which in the Basque derby], twelve defeats and five red cards. With La Real 20 matches, only four wins – one of which the 3-1 defeat of Barcelona last season.

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Graham Hunter: This 34/1 La Liga treble should draw a crowd while Alfie can make Moyes merry at 6/1

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If the world were spinning correctly on its axis then there’d be more cheers and fierce booing before this match than anything during it – no matter how many goals Messi scores, or if Cordoba happen to produce the shock of all shocks in Saturday’s 3pm clash with Barcelona.

The reasons come in the shape of the Cordoba coach and their President.

WDW& BTTS All matches

Miroslav Dukić was a no-nonsense central defender for Deportivo La Coruña back in 1993/4 – a time when Super-Depor had led La Liga for 23 straight weeks, right up to the final weekend of football.

Depor were at home to Valencia, Barcelona, their pursuers, at home to Sevilla. So long as Depor matched Barça’s result they were guaranteed champions.

Johan Cruyff’s Dream Team thrashed Sevilla 5-2 and until the 89th minute in the Riazor Depor were tied 0-0 against Gaizka Mendieta’s Valencia. Then, penalty Depor. Bebeto ducked responsibility, Dukić stepped up … the Camp Nou froze while transistor radios were pressed to thousands of ears – and the penalty was saved.

A fourth straight Spanish title for Cruyff’s Dream Team. Surely Dukić is owed the [ironic] honour of being applauded out on to the Camp Nou?

Barcelona-800

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What of Cordoba President Carlos González?

Well in the Dream Team that day, at right back, was one Albert Ferrer – Olympic Gold medallist, European Cup winner at Wembley and, thanks to Dukić, newly champion of Spain again.

Last summer he took Cordoba up to Spain’s Primera Division for the first time in 42 years, he was given about eight games to prove himself and then González, the coward, wouldn’t even face him when he sacked him, sending ‘Chapi’ Ferrer a text saying how ashamed he was of his actions that he couldn’t bear to see him. If that doesn’t deserve a hostile reception at Chapi’s spiritual home, I don’t know what does.

Neymar is fit again, and should start, while Luis Enrique expects ‘more of the same’. ”

We’ve prepared for a typical game – a rival who shuts up shop at the back and tries to cause problems on the counter. If there’s anything we are accustomed to – it’s that.

Most of Barça’s stars have had a week off, they average four goals every home game and there’s nothing to suggest that this should be hugely different.

David Moyes

Levante v Real Sociedad, Saturday, 5pm

David Moyes is learning as he goes in his new country and while he learned something nice this week, that Alfie Finnbogason CAN actually still score goals, there was something altogether less pleasant for him to assimilate when it came to surveying the Levante game on Saturday at 5pm..

La Real’s away form has been horrible for many, many months. They seem to lack the physical stamina, the concentration and worst of all the belief to consistently pick up good results on the road.

But Levante is a case apart. Not only have the Basques NEVER beaten little Levante in Spain’s top division, in five of their last seven meetings La Real have taken the lead only to go on and either draw or lose. Savage stuff.

Moyes the Merrier

It looks likely that Carlos Vela won’t make it because of a muscle strain and there are seven more of Moyes’ squad who are fitness doubts.

Perhaps there’s a blessing in disguise. He’s filtered a variety of ‘kids’ into his last few matches and to absolutely no ill-effect.

Finnbogason’s two goals in the Cup victory over Oviedo means he’s a striker with some confidence again and worth following (6/1 for first goalscorer) in that he has at least got himself into something like six or seven scoring positions in the last two matches.

Chory Castro should make the game and is in form, Iñigo Martínez [despite missing a sitter v Athletic] threatens from set-pieces while for Levante their burly Brazilian striker, Rafa Martins, who’s taken a Finnbogason-length of time to score, is now looking fit, quick and dangerous whether as a starter or sub.

Hard to have faith in La Real on the road but if they go one up this time, have a punt on them not losing this time.

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Eibar v Valencia, Saturday, 7pm

One way in which this new, voracious Valencia give you a bit of joy is that only once in their last seven away matches have they failed to score. They are ‘in’ almost every game, combative, buzzing with menace and self-belief despite being newly constructed and brimful of youth.

Maybe that’s part of the explanation for their record of four red cards already this season. For that reason André Gomes [potentially their most impressive addition this season] will be missing from midfield in the Basque country in this tiny [literally] stadium which is directly in proportion with the tiny [27,000 inhabitants] town, whose inhabitants have never enjoyed Primera football before.

Sent off last week against Rayo, the last time Gomes missed a game it was, just to round the argument off nicely, the only time in the last seven away matches when Valencia failed to score. In fact that week they went from having thrashed Atlético at home to losing, limply, at Deportivo la Coruña. Gomes is on five bookings so he’ll miss the next match too while both Gayá and Javi Fuego are one yellow off suspension. Does or doesn’t that influence how forcefully they play? I always wonder.

Their ref here is Carlos Velasco Carballo who HATES a red card. Ninety eight of them in 191 Liga matches says to me an average of a sending off just about every second game.

Just one in eight matches this season so the law of averages is screaming at him right now. ‘Off, OFF. OFF!’ What to make of Eibar. Not only do they sit ninth, better than any other promoted side across all of Europe’s major leagues, they hit five goals in their last home game and are off the back of a superb away draw to Sevilla.

They ain’t to be taken lightly. Although Mikel Arruabarrena is top scorer with just four, Gaizka Garitano’s side have shared their 19 goals across eleven different scorers including Saúl Berjón who’s an emerging gem of a forward.

Neither Feghouli (9/1) nor Piatti (13/2) are prolific for Valencia but they give the width the pace and both are nice side-bets for an unexpected goal if you fancy moving away from the market-leaders like the Rodrigos or Negredo.

simeone_840

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Sunday, 8pm

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Athletic have a reliance on Aritz Aduriz akin to dolphins and water, human beings and oxygen or Piers Morgan and cheap publicity. Complete. So to see the striker return from injury for the Basque derby last weekend but then be used [instead of rested] for the last 13 minutes of Athletic’s squeaky-bum Cup tie against third division Alcoyano on Thursday night tells you a) how worried coach Valverde was about going out and b) how little he trusts Los Leones’ other striking alternatives. What little Alcoyano knew was that meanwhile Athletic find it harder to score than North Korea does to keep its nose out of other people’s business they had a right chance. Valverde admitted:

We were sluggish up front. To get through we had to grit our teeth and hang on to the single goal lead.

Not a great advert.

Athletic, once fearsome at the new San Mames, have lost at home three times this season already and needlessly dropped other points to draws. They’ll be without Iturraspe in midfield and Laporte at centre back against Atlético, both suspended.

This fixture has a wonderful rhythm to it. Going back years and years if one team wins it’s home game the other will reverse that next time they meet. Better still, if, say, Atleti win in Bilbao, Athletic will win in Madrid next time they meet and vice versa. The original tit for tat. Everyone wants to be tat.

Diego Simeone has some choices to make. Losing at home to Villarreal last week [much against my expectation] his team looked massively tired, with Diego Godin wading through concrete when the scorer, Vietto, gamboled by him.

Then they lost two goals at home to Hospitalet in the Cup. Something’s not right.

On balance the fact that Atleti score and Athletic struggle to do so suggests there’s a risk of an away win here. That’s something they achieved last season [1-2] despite Athletic leading. San Jose is a goal threat for Athletic at set pieces, Borja Viguera is beginning to find his feet. Antoine Griezmann must get his chance to start and if he does he needs to impress his boss with a goal. Atletico need to figure that they can’t give Real Madrid another present while the league leaders [try to] become world champions in Morocco.

Expect the Basque pride to rouse Athletic and the Spanish champions will need one heck of a better pace and intensity than they’ve been capable of recently in order to better a score draw.

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Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

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Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

  • Valencia 5/1, Real Madrid 8/15, Draw 3/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

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Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

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Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet. 

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Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

  • The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

  • They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

  • Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

  • It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

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Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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Graham Hunter interviews David Ginola: He’s not perfect, but he’s a man of substance, integrity and vision and it’s what FIFA needs

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Let me tell you why I hope that David Ginola wins the right to run for FIFA President in May.

Why, at absolute bare minimum, via the announcement of his candidacy football can be at one of those game-changing moments after which we will all say: ‘We no longer want to be duped, we no longer want to ‘settle’.’

‘We’ve seen better future and the concept of handing the safekeeping of this mighty sport to a man, or woman, of this credibility is now our baseline demand.’

Let’s put our foot on the ball for a second. Let’s pretend that Sepp Blatter (below) is actually a Swiss functionary in a minor accountancy firm in Zurich.

That the FIFA Presidency is, in fact, not tainted and a parody of itself but a blank canvas onto which you can project your dearest, most fervent wishes.

Sepp Blatter

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I guess that we’d all begin by saying: ‘Make the FIFA President someone with a deep, intimate and loving knowledge of the game – preferably from having played or managed successfully in it’.

I think we’d add that we want honesty, vision, integrity, someone who is multi-lingual, who has a wide cultural experience. Someone who appeals equally to men and women.

Our design elements would include ‘youthful’ vigour, but not immaturity, and we’d fervently try to avoid pomposity, anachronistic behaviour and even the merest whiff of partiality, self-interest or avarice.

The capacity to unite, rather than a natural inclination to divide and rule.

Charisma. What about charisma?

The most charismatic sport ever invented in the history of human existence. Couldn’t we throw in a dash of charisma to this ideal global leader?

This template isn’t unique to David Ginola.

At stages of their lives or careers these adjectives, these qualities, have applied to men like Karl Heinz Rummenigge, Pep Guardiola, Johan Cruyff, Vicente Del Bosque, Trevor Brooking, Jurgen Klinsmann, Arsene Wenger.

But Ginola is the one who has stepped forward and begun a campaign not simply to lead but to unite.

David Ginola of Spurs is tackled by Jaap Stam of Man Utd

From the first time I interviewed him, in the players’ car-park at White Hart Lane after a midweek win for Spurs, until yesterday when we talked at length about what he aims to give back to the sport which made him successful and famous, Ginola has quite evidently been a man of substance.

On his TeamGinola campaign, David Ginola told me: “I spent so long talking to people who told me ‘we don’t understand FIFA decisions, we don’t trust them any more’ that it convinced me to stand.

“Football is the greatest and the most popular sport on the planet and it needs to be respected. The only way to make that happen is that the biggest decisions, taken by FIFA must be transparent, crystal clear, common-sense, fair, honest, balanced and dignified.

“All my life I was an individual player who put everything he had into performing for the team, for the benefit of everyone around me. That’s the approach I want to bring to FIFA.

“My aim is that people can feel they’ve been given back a voice and a respect for the world game.

“That people can say: ‘Wow, what a massive change. ‘We had THAT before and now we have transparency, common-sense, defendable decisions and policies which can be understood, explained and which are crystal-clear in their philosophy.”

It would be misplaced to market Ginola (47) as perfect, or holier than thou. He’s going to be on a steep learning curve.

Cynicism is too often a default setting and it may be that some think he’ll be too politically naive.

What I would point out is that I saw a very, very similar phenomenon first erupt, and then beautify football, when the youthful, previously untested, forces of nature like Joan Laporta, Ferran Soriano, Marc Ingla, Txiki Begiristain, Frank Rijkaard and then Pep Guardiola took hold of a moribund and failing FC Barcelona and gave us a decade of outstanding excellence.

All based on Johan Cruyff’s football bible.

Team Ginola, Press Pic, January 2015

At Bayern Munich the integration of intelligent, energetic, dedicated, modern-minded men like Franz Beckenbauer, Rummenigge (yes, also the flawed Uli Hoeness) and Matthias Sammer over the years demonstrated that if you mix brilliant business and marketing men with the cream of football’s winners the blend can be powerful. Unstoppable.

Ginola added: “Football has been my life – from dreaming about being a professional when I was nine, to signing my first contract at 19.

“I’ve experienced the ups and downs and the word respect is used a a lot – more as a word than as an action.

“This is a game we earn a living from because people buy season tickets, match tickets, subscriptions to football on television and it’s long overdue that more respect was shown to that, shown to those people who make the sport.

“We can make football and its decisions respected again.

“Football belongs to those who love it. A leader should be rewarded for what he or she does in favour of those people, not in favour of themself.”

I guess most of us probably think of Blatter like this: ‘I don’t believe him’. ‘I don’t believe in him’. ‘I can’t believe we’re stuck with him.’

Now it’s time to believe. Believe in reclaiming football, believe that Ginola deserves the chance to prove that he’s our representative. Not saintly, not necessarily a vastly experienced administrator, not perfect. But a man of substance, integrity and vision.

Someone who, on May 29, I’d love to be able to call Monsieur Le President.

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