Graham Hunter: Isco inferno can set Bale on fire with this 3/1 Friday night cracker

Almería v Real Madrid, Friday 19.45

We’d all like to know the truth. What the hell is the magic elixir that allows a group of players poor enough to get the previous coach sacked to suddenly produce a power-play in the first game under new management and perform like world-beaters?

It has happened throughout the history of football but the most recent example was the Real Sociedad shirkers getting Jagoba Arrasate the heave-ho and then going out and beating the Spanish champions within a couple of days under the temporary control of Asier Santana.

So, Almería have eschewed the normal logic of letting Fran Rodríguez take a doing in this match against the European champions and THEN sacking him so that the new guy has a less fearsome start. Miguel Rivera is Johnny Two-Jobs this weekend, running the first team’s attempt to knock Madrid off their stride tonight and then back in the saddle with Almería B on Saturday afternoon against Granada B.

“It’s like winning the lottery,” reckons Rivera, whose cup minnows, Ecija, drew with Real Madrid 1-1 back in 2006.

In his favour should be the fact that this lot very nearly took three points off Barcelona a couple of weeks ago and that while Almería have won just once in 10 attempts [all time] against Madrid, since 2008 there have been two draws and a home win between the clubs at this stadium.

Which is not to ignore the fact that unless Madrid have their mind on the impending flight to Morocco for the World Club Championship then they’ll win. By hook or crook.

The quality of their football has dipped from boiling to simmering over the last couple of games but the flood of goals has, largely continued.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Ronaldo was niggly in midweek against Ludogorets, partly at Gareth Bale’s occasional choice to favour attempting to score ahead of feeding the team leader.

  • On that subject, IF you want to ignore Ronaldo’s goal chances in this extraordinarily prolific season of his [over 30 goals in all competitions by early December] then Bale scored home and away against Almería last season, as did Isco who added a clutch of goal assists too.
  • Karim Benzema interests – eight in 12 in La Liga, five in five in the Champions League. It might just be that if Bale and Ronaldo aren’t feeding each other goals with the same vigor, perhaps the Frenchman will be the beneficiary of their assists.

Madrid by two, Isco and Benzema good candidates, but first goal important and for those in-play keep a close eye on whether players who have an impending date with a world title perhaps hold a little back. (Under Match Specials: Madrid to win by exactly two goals is 3/1)

Ref Álvarez Izquierdo: 11 matches with Madrid, eight wins, one draw two defeats – away to Celta and Sevilla.

  • Dip into the latest Real Madrid match odds here >

Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico -1.0 to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.

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Friday Night World Cup Action

The race for Brazil 2014 kicks-off on Friday night with the first qualifying games for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. These opening games are going to be indicators for whether fans can expect an enjoyable or ultimately disappointing qualification campaign.

Moldova v England

England’s Group H campaign begins at the Zimbru Stadium in Chisinau as Roy Hodgson prepares his side for their first competitive game since the European Championships. Despite exiting on penalties to Italy, England have yet to be defeated in open play in Hodgson’s seven matches to date and don’t expect that to change on Friday night (Moldova 12/1 draw 4/1 England 3/10 Match Betting).

Adam Johnson, Ashley Cole, Wayne Rooney and Andy Carroll are all missing through injury but John Terry could play having taken full part in training earlier this week. It is likely that Jermain Defoe will lead the England line and this could be his best chance to shine and prove to Hodgson he is worthy of a regular starting berth.

As for Moldova, they finished second bottom of their Euro 2012 qualifying group and have failed to score in their last five matches, with the opponents of Albania, El Salvador, Venezuela, Belarus and Georgia not exactly in the same league as England. These teams were drawn together for 1998 World Cup qualifying and England won 3-0 in Chisinau and 4-0 at Wembley. Similar results are 7/1 and 11/1 respectively and look possible outcomes.

Wales v Belgium

Chris Coleman’s Wales start their World Cup qualification campaign against one of the blossoming teams in Europe. Belgium have their own golden generation and the squad boasts 10 players from the Premier League, with the likes of Eden Hazard, Moussa Dembele, Vincent Kompany and Thomas Vermaelen the standout performers.

All together this means it is a daunting task for Coleman’s side – not helped by the fact they have lost both his matches in charge so far (Wales 7/2 draw 13/5 Belgium 5/6 Match Betting).

Key players such as Neil Taylor, Craig Bellamy, Joe Ledley, Andrew Crofts, Jack Collison, David Vaughan and Wayne Hennessey are all injured, which means Coleman needs to unite a depleted squad.

Home hopes will rest on Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen, but they will need to support lone striker Steve Morison as there will not be many expecting him getting much change from Kompany and Vermaelen. Expect a 2-0 win for Belgium, priced at 7/1, to be on the cards.

Russia v Northern Ireland

Michael O’Neill’s Northern Ireland have lost six of their last seven matches and still need to address their age-old problem of scoring goals. Kyle Lafferty and Dean Sheils are likely to lead the line, while the centre-back pairing of Jonny Evans and Aaron Hughes are set to return to shore up a leaky back-line.

It promises to be a long night in Moscow for the Irish, with Russia starting their new era under former England boss Fabio Capello. The likes of Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Alan Dzagoev – who shone at Euro 2012 – will pose big problems for the Northern Ireland defence as Russia look to continue a formidable home record that has seen them concede only twice in their last seven home games. Russia are 2/9 to win in the match betting and you can’t look much further than that, with the draw 11/2 and a Northern Ireland shock win priced at 12/1.

Kazakhstan v Republic of Ireland

Ireland will want to bounce back from a miserable Euro 2012 in their opening World Cup 2014 qualifier against a Kazakhstan outfit who are ranked 145th in the FIFA World rankings (Kazakhstan 9/2 draw 5/2 Ireland 8/11 Match Betting) .

It is a period of transition for Giovanni Trapattoni as the experienced duo of Shay Given and Damien Duff have retired, while they will do without Richard Dunne. With the likes of Germany, Sweden and Austria alongside Ireland in Group C they really need to get a result against the minnows of Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands.

Trapattoni has indicated that Simon Cox is likely to start the game ahead of James McClean, with the Sunderland man troubled with a cold. Glenn Whelan, Aiden McGeady, James McCarthy and Cox will make up the midfield, while Jon Walters is expected to partner Robbie Keane up front. Ireland need to go for goals on Friday and 28/1 for a 4-0 win to the Irish looks a tempting prospect.

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Good Friday in store for Swans

A hectic Easter weekend of Premier League action kicks off on Good Friday as Swansea City welcome Newcastle United to the Liberty Stadium. The Swans will be looking for the point they need to reach the magical 40-pointer marker, while the Magpies could go within two points of the top four with a win. We pick out the best bets from this intriguing contest.

The trip to the Liberty Stadium is the longest one any Premier League fan can make, with the Toon Army poised to cover around 700 miles in getting to and from South Wales. As a result, they will certainly be hoping it is worth it as they keep their fingers crossed Newcastle can make it three straight wins. A European spot looks all but assured after last week’s 2-0 win over Liverpool gave them a 10-point lead over seventh-placed Everton.

While the Reds were bad last week, Newcastle looked eager to end the season well having exceeded all expectations up to this point. Manager Alan Pardew has turned the Magpies into a formidable outfit with some shrewd signings, none more so than Papiss Cisse. The Senegal striker has seven goals in eight appearances since his mid-season switch from Freiburg, four of which have been the first goals of the game. As such Cisse to break the deadlock again at 11/2 may be worth an investment.

Newcastle’s last away trip resulted in a 3-1 win over West Brom but before then Pardew’s men hadn’t been prolific at picking up points on their travels recently. Before the victory at the Hawthorns they had managed two wins in a nine away matches, a run of which includes six defeats.

Given Swansea’s excellent home form this season it’s tough to see Newcastle coming away with all three points.  If you do fancy Newcastle to become only the third team to win at the Liberty Stadium then they can be backed at 2/1, with the Swans 11/8 and the draw 12/5 in the match betting.

While Newcastle fans may feel they have overachieved this season then there is no doubt Swansea’s campaign has exceeded the expectations for their supporters. The Swans are on 39 points heading into the Easter weekend and, barring a remarkable comeback by those at the bottom, should be safe even if they don’t win another game.

However, manager Brendan Rodgers won’t be allowing his players to think about their summer holidays just yet and despite losing at Tottenham last week they put in a much improved display at White Hart Lane after a limp-wristed defeat against Everton at home.

In front of another bumper crowd Rodgers will be hoping his team can claim another big scalp, having beaten Arsenal and Manchester City and taken points off Chelsea and Tottenham. Having worked with opposite number Pardew while working as a coach at Reading, Rodgers might have a few ideas as to what the Toon might throw at them.

The goalless draw at St James’ Park certainly gave an indication that Rodgers’ team can stifle the north-east outfit, although there was no Cisse for the Toon that day.

The partnership of Cisse and Demba Ba could be the deciding factor but if Swansea can keep them quiet and play their own game there is no reason why they can’t get a result. Draw HT/ Swansea FT is 9/2 and could be the value bet for punters.

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Friday football picks

Fleetwood Town can consolidate pole position at the top of the Blue Square Premier on Friday – and Stuttgart should not be scoffed at at odds-on to beat rock-bottom Kaiserslautern in Germany’s Bundesliga.

Kidderminster v Fleetwood

Conference table-toppers Fleetwood look well priced at evens to collect maximum points away to Kidderminster on Friday. The Cod Army have not lost on the road since early September last year and have only conceded two goals in their last six away trips. They could go eight points clear of nearest-challengers Wrexham at the top of the Blue Square Premier and in midweek proved the can go to the final whistle when securing a last-gasp win at home to Grimsby Town.

Andy Mangan and Jamie Vardy have more than 40 goals between them so far this season and, given that Kidderminster have not kept a clean sheet at home in five in the Conference, will again be looking to get among the goals.

Even relegation-threatened Hayes and Yeading managed to find the net at Aggborough Stadium and the recent home form about Steve Burr’s men does not bode well for the visit of the league leaders. Harriers (9/4, draw 9/4 – totesport match prices) have lost their last two on home soil and have only won one of their last seven games in all competitions.

Chievo v Inter Milan

Claudio Ranieri will roll out his big guns when Internazionale make the trip to the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Verona to take on Chievo attempting to end a nine-game winless run. The Nerazzurri ended a five-game losing stretch with a come-from-behind 2-2 draw against Catania last Sunday, but it was not enough to stop speculation about the future of under-pressure coach Ranieri.

Goals have become a major issue for Inter – prior to last weekend they had not scored in five games in all competitions – but the Italian will again turn to Diego Forlan and Diego Milito for a solution. Inter also have the small task of overturning a 1-0 first-leg defeat by Marseille in the Champions League next week, but Ranieri cannot afford to be tinkering at such a critical stage of his Nerazzurri tenure.

Chievo must not be underestimated home – they have only lost three in Serie A all season – but they have only scored 11 goals in the top flight in Verona, only Cesena (nine) have scored less goals at home, so it may play to go with a low-goals projection.

Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern

Free-scoring Stuttgart will view the visit of basement club Kaiserslautern as a perfect opportunity to make it three wins on the bounce at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.

The recent visits of fellow strugglers Hertha Berlin and Freiburg can be used as collateral lines of form and Die Roten run out comfortable winners, prevailing 5-0 and 4-1 respectively, with in-form striker Martin Harnik helping himself to five goals over the two games.

Kaiserslautern simply do not travel well – they have won only one game on the road this season – and have conceded in every away trip in Bundesliga. They have only won three top-flight games all season and not scored in 180 minutes, while they are also the joint-lowest scorers on the road with Nurnberg with nine.

As such Stuttgart are priced accordingly (4/7 draw 14/5 Kaiserslautern 9/2 – totesport match prices), but it may pay to follow the 5/4 about Stuttgart half-time/full-time given that this would have landed in their last two games.

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Friday night football action

Bet on the FA CupThe Premier League and Championship take a break this weekend as the FA Cup takes centre-stage, and Liverpool will be bidding to avoid an upset on Friday night as they host League One outfit Oldham Athletic.

The Latics sit comfortably in mid-table at present, 10 points clear of the relegation zone and seven points away from the play-off spots.  Oldham boss Paul Dickov is expected to name his strongest possible line-up for the trip to Anfield and former Blackburn and Newcastle striker Shefki Kuqi will lead the line. Finnish frontman Kuqi is Oldham’s top scorer and his size and presence could trouble the Reds defence – if the Latics can provide him with the service he needs.

However, it is hard to see anything other than a Liverpool victory in this particular fixture, even if boss Kenny Dalglish chooses to rest his star men. Youngsters such as Sebastian Coates and Jonjo Shelvey are expected to be included in the starting line-up as Dalglish shuffles his pack, but talisman Steven Gerrard may feature in some capacity as he continues to work his way back to full fitness following a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

Dirk Kuyt and Maxi Rodriguez could be involved in the starting XI after struggling to secure regular action this season, while Alexander Doni will replace Pepe Reina in goal. Liverpool are 1/8 to secure the win, while the draw can be backed at 7/1 and an Oldham victory, which would be a massive upset, is priced at 18/1.  Liverpool can be backed at 7/1 to land the FA Cup this season, Chelsea are 5/1 and Manchester City are priced at 13/2.

There are two other domestic fixtures on Friday night and League One title chasers Huddersfield will be looking to put the pressure on the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton Athletic when they travel to lowly Wycombe.  Wednesday and the Addicks are both involved in the cup so Huddersfield can close the gap at the top if they manage to secure all three points.

The Yorkshire outfit have drawn their previous two matches and will be desperate to get back to winning ways to keep their automatic promotion hopes alive. In contrast, Wycombe are involved in the relegation dogfight and are currently two points adrift of safety. The Chairboys have lost their previous two fixtures and have failed to score in both, and their struggles could well continue when Huddersfield visit.

Town striker Jordan Rhodes is in sensational form at present and can be backed at 5/4 to score at any time, or 7/1 to score two or more.  Huddersfield are 10/11 to take all three points, while a Wycombe win is available at 11/4 and a draw can be backed at 13/5.

In League Two Burton Albion host Accrington Stanley in a crucial promotion encounter. Burton currently occupy the last play-off spot in the table and Stanley are just four points behind Paul Peschisolido’s side, who have slumped of late. The Brewers slumped to a 2-0 defeat at home to relegation threatened Hereford last time out and have managed just one win in their last four games.

While Burton are struggling Accrington are in the midst of a rich vein of form and are unbeaten in their last nine fixtures, winning six and drawing three. Burton are 10/11 to take all three points but considering Stanley’s recent form an away win at 12/5 could well be the best bet in this Friday night contest, the draw is available at 12/5.

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Friday night football picks

There are a host of football games on Friday night and further down the ladder there are half a dozen games across League One and League Two – so here’s a guide to those games taking place (totesport – Friday’s picks).

Npower League One
Huddersfield v Carlisle

Huddersfield suffered two losses in a row, to Charlton and Bournemouth, earlier in December as their 43-game unbeaten league record came to an end. It was always going to be difficult for Lee Clark’s men to bounce back but a morale-boosting 4-4 draw away to Sheffield Wednesday and a win over Chesterfield means they are getting back to their best. Carlisle themselves are sitting only three places behind and are unbeaten in three games, but expect Huddersfield to be too strong.

Prediction: Huddersfield to win @ 4/6

Tranmere v Bury

Tranmere saw their Boxing Day game with Rochdale postponed due to structural damage at Prenton Park, but hopefully they will be able to play on Friday. On the pitch, it has been eight games without a win and they welcome a Bury side that are great on their travels – winning six and drawing one on the road this season. It could mean more misery for Les Parry’s team.

Prediction: Bury to win @ 9/4

Npower League Two
Cheltenham v Rotherham

Cheltenham are riding high in the league and it has been only one defeat in their last six games, and three wins and a draw in their last four home matches. With only two home defeats and a mere six goals conceded on their home patch Cheltenham are consistent, which cannot be said of Rotherham of late.

Prediction: Cheltenham to win @ evens

Crawley Town v Barnet

Crawley sit at the top of League Two and face the perennial strugglers from North London. Even though Steve Evan’s men lost at home to Gillingham you should not expect Barnet to pull off a big shock as Crawley look for momentum to boost their push to League One.

Prediction: Crawley to win @ 4/11

Dag & Red v Gillingham

It is now five home defeats in a row for poor Dagenham and Redbridge, which has left them sitting level on points with the bottom two of Northampton and Plymouth. Confidence is low and they welcome a Gills team who thrashed Bristol Rovers and won away at league leaders Crawley in their last two games. All the signs point to a miserable end of 2011 for John Still’s team.

Prediction: Gillingham to win @ 21/20

Hereford v Accrington Stanley

It is eight games without a win for Hereford and only two points taken in that stage, and they really need to stop losing leads and start picking up points at Edgar Street. They welcome an Accrington side who have only won twice on the road all season – and those two wins have come in December. Stanley have drawn seven of their 11 matches away from home and this could be magical number 12.

Prediction: Draw @ 12/5

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Trio can land Friday prize

There are three key games taking place across Europe on Friday evening, with punters sure to be keeping an eye on developments in England, Italy and Germany. We take a look at the best betting options for the triple-header…….

Preston can make it make it four successive League One wins on the bounce when they welcome Yeovil to Deepdale in leg one of Friday’s football treble.

North End have responded well from their shock home defeat to Colchester on the opening day of the new campaign – and first in the third tier of English football since relegation last season – by clocking up 10 points in four games.

By contrast, Yeovil have managed just one win in League One so far this season – at home to Oldham nearly a month ago – and are priced accordingly at 4/1 in the match betting for what would be a shock away win.

More encouraging for PNE manager Phil Brown, who revealed free agent El Hadji Diouf is training with the club this week, is the that fact his promotion-contenders have not conceded a league goal in 270 minutes.

His only worry is goalkeeper Iain Turner, who scored with a huge goal-kick in Preston’s last outing against Notts County on August 27, because of an elbow injury.

Yeovil boss Terry Skiverton was delighted with the way his side battled to a goalless draw against Tranmere at Prenton Park – the club first clean sheet of the new season – but it is difficult to make a case for the Glovers heading back North on Friday night.

Skiverton, who admitted “my players are going through the pain barrier for me at the moment” last week, has lost strikers Jon Obika and Andy Williams to injury and that can only blunt the Green and Whites as an attacking unit.

North End can be backed at 4/7 to beat Yeovil and are 2/1 to win promotion from League 1 this season, and it is difficult to envisage them flopping on Friday.

In Serie A, AC Milan drew twice in the league against Lazio (Milan 8/13, draw 12/5, Lazio 4/1 – Match Betting) last term – but only lost twice at home all season.

The defending champions are a short price to win on Friday at the San Siro in the opening game of the delayed Italian season, but they look too strong for the Rome outfit.

Finally, Augsburg have failed to win a match in Bundesliga in four attempts since promotion to the German top flight last season – and have not scored in 180 minutes – and on Friday entertain shot-shy Bayer Leverkusen.

The visitors have only netted twice in four games since the start of the new season and it may pay to side with a low goals projection at SGL Arena (Augsburg 3/1, draw 5/2, Bayer Leverkusen 8/11 – Match Betting).

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Leeds need Good Friday

Reading’s bid to continue their surge up the Championship table on the back of eight consecutive victories will be tested to the full at Leeds United on Good Friday as the season near its dramatic conclusion.

The Royals looked all set for a mid-table finish a couple of months ago, but since then Brian McDermott’s side have purred into top gear and won eight on the spin to not only move into the play-off places, but also into contention for automatic promotion.

Winger Jimmy Kebe has been inspirational in that superb run, with Irish strikers Shane Long and Noel Hunt eagerly waiting to put away the chances, with the latter having scored five times in his last eight games and priced 6/1 to open the scoring at Elland Road.

Leeds’ own automatic promotion hopes have all but disappeared during a nervy run of results and they now need to get back on track to ensure that they do not compound their misery by missing out on the play-offs altogether.

A loss at home to the Royals would open the door for Nottingham Forest to overtake the Whites by winning at home to East Midlands rivals Leicester City.

Earlier this season an Andy King goal settled a tense derby at the Walkers Stadium and another tight encounter is on the cards, albeit with a few more goals due to both teams’ defences having started to creak at the wrong time of the season.

The odds of both sides finding the net during the game are 4/5.

Relegation matters also feature heavily, with both Doncaster Rovers and Crystal Palace hoping that Scunthorpe United come unstuck at Coventry City.

The Iron currently occupy the final relegation spot, being three points adrift of Rovers and five behind the Eagles with just four games to play, having won 2-1 at Crystal Palace last weekend.

However, with Doncaster and Palace meeting at the Keepmoat Stadium, a Scunthorpe win at the Ricoh Arena could make things very hairy.

The arrival of new manager Alan Knill, who previously made his name with Bury, has provided a much-needed spark, even if his reign at Glanford Park started in a 6-0 thrashing at Norwich City.

Loan striker Joe Garner could have made the difference at Coventry, but his red card at Palace could prove costly, with Scunthorpe available at 8/5 to score first in the game.

No doubt phones and radios at the Keepmoat Stadium will be relaying news of events in Coventry back to the nervous fans of both teams in action, with the Rovers faithful particularly on edge after a run of eight games without a win.

Palace, like Rovers, appeared to be safe a matter of weeks ago, but a 2-1 home loss to Scunthorpe last time out plunged them right back into the mire and having won just once on their travels this term, they cannot head to South Yorkshire full of confidence.

The Eagles have shipped 44 goals away from home this term and netted a mere 15 and so can be backed at 11/4 to keep a rare clean sheet.

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Friday night Football League action

barry fryWith the Euro 2012 qualifiers taking centre-stage this weekend there are no Premier League or Championship games to look forward to, but fear not – there is a full League One and League Two programme with six fixtures from the two respective leagues taking place on Friday night.

Peterborough United could well be on course for an immediate return to the Championship and the Posh are just two points adrift of an automatic promotion spot with a game in hand (Peterborough 13/8 to be promoted).  Darren Ferguson’s men have won three of their last four games on their travels and on Friday they travel to relegation threatened Bristol Rovers.

The Pirates have a shocking home record and have managed just one win in their last six at the Memorial Stadium, losing five. Rovers are four points adrift of safety and need to start picking up results but they will struggle against a strong Posh outfit who are in fine form. Bristol Rovers may enjoy the home advantage but Peterborough are favourites at 10/11 and they should be able to take all three points and continue their assault on the top two.

Hartlepool United have been a strange team this season, beating those they would be expected to struggle against and suffering some surprising defeats – including a 5-2 reverse – after going 2-0 up – at Walsall last time out. The Pools welcome this season’s League One surprise package Rochdale to the Victoria Stadium on Friday in what could well be a very tight and interesting contest.

At 7/5, the Hartlepool victory looks good value, especially considering their home advantage, but Rochdale certainly have a chance and cannot be discounted. However, both teams have problems keeping clean sheets and the Pools’ 19 home games so far this season have yielded an astonishing 52 goals (26 for, and 26 against) and 7/10 on both teams to score looks great value in light of this statistic.

There are two League Two fixtures on Friday night as Lincoln City host Rotherham and Torquay travel to Northampton. I would have suggested Lincoln, at 17/10, appear good value to get the better of an out-of-sorts Rotherham. However, the Millers axed Ronnie Moore as manager earlier this week and it is always difficult to predict how a team will react in that situation.

Northampton are still involved in the relegation fight but the Cobblers should be able to retain their league status as they’re seven points clear of Barnet in 23rd place, who seem destined for the drop and are in woeful form.  In contrast, a victory for Torquay on Friday night would move them ahead of Wycombe in third and the lure of automatic promotion for the Gulls could well inspire them to victory at Sixfields on Friday (Torquay 4/1 to win promotion from League Two).

Torquay’s away record is not particularly impressive, with two wins, two draws and two losses from their last six games, but they should be too strong for Northampton.  The Cobblers have lost three and won once in their last four on home soil and could be set for more misery on Friday, with Torquay priced at 13/8 to take a maximum three-point haul.

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