Arsenal know they need a footballing miracle if they are to turn around a 4-0 deficit against AC Milan in the second leg of their Champions League knock-out tie at the Emirates on Tuesday (Arsenal 11/10, draw 5/2, AC Milan 5/2 – 90 Minute).
Brave punters can get odds of 25/1 for Arsenal to qualify after their first leg mauling at the San Siro last month. The Gunners were roundly criticised for their display in Italy, which saw goals from Kevin-Prince Boateng, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and a brace from Robinho inflict Arsenal’s heaviest ever defeat in European competition (AC Milan – 10/1 Champions League Outright).
With Arsene Wenger’s men following up that game with a limp display against Sunderland in the FA Cup, their hopes of silverware are all but dashed before the start of spring – yet again.
However, despite their woes in cup competitions the Gunners’ Premier League form has actually improved, with boss Arsene Wenger picking up the Manager of the Month Award for February after three wins from three during the month, including a 5-2 demolition of local rivals Spurs.
They then began March with a narrow 2-1 victory against Liverpool at Anfield, meaning they now hold a crucial three-point advantage over fifth-placed Chelsea in the race for a Champions League spot (Arsenal 4/7 – Top-Four Finish).
Robin van Persie grabbed his 30th and 31st goals of the campaign so far at Anfield on Saturday and now has 10 in 11 games across all competitions. The generous odds of 4/1 for the flying Dutchman to score first therefore are too good to be overlooked.
This upturn in form may have come too late to save their Champion League chances this term but it perhaps needs to be noted that they have scored 12 goals in successive home league games, and six of their last 19 home wins in Europe have been won by four or more goals.
A four-goal deficit has never been overturned in the Champions League, though Milan did concede a 4-1 first leg lead when they lost 4-0 to Deportivo La Coruna in the quarter-finals back in 2004.
But while Arsenal will steam forward with the intent to fire themselves back into the tie they have to be mindful that one slip at the back and the tie will be finished off for good. And with the attacking quartet of Robinho, Antonio Nocerino, Boateng and Ibrahimovic all set to start for the Rossoneri, it is hard to see Arsenal keeping a clean sheet.
Massimiliano Allegri’s men are unbeaten in their last five games and are now five points clear at the top of Serie A following last weekend’s 4-0 win against Palermo. After four successive defeats at this stage of the competition, the Serie A giants will not want to let their advantage slip this time around.
With the amount of quality permeating the Milan ranks Arsenal have simply given themselves too much to do in order to qualify. However, a determination to go down fighting and build on their promising league form should ensure goals – but sadly for Arsenal fans they will come at both ends.
A 2-1 Arsenal victory is the pick, priced at 7/1, while a van Persie 2-1 scorecast is priced at 22/1.
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