With Spain expected to beat the Republic of Ireland in the late Group C game on Thursday, Italy know a win for them in the 5pm kick-off against Croatia (Italy 5/4, Draw 11/5, Croatia 5/2 in the match betting) is crucial if they are to progress to the knock-out phase of Euro 2012.
Italy began the tournament well with an impressive 1-1 draw against Spain although, after taking the lead in that clash, they may now look back on Sunday as a great chance to have beaten the reigning European champions wasted.
But, all the same, they still head to Poznan in upbeat mood ahead of what will be another test of their credentials against Croatia. Substitute Antonio Di Natale’s strike in Gdansk set them on their way against La Roja and he is in contention to start for Cesare Prandelli’s side with question marks over whether Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli will keep his place in the starting XI alongside Antonio Cassano.
Balotelli, backable at 5/2 to score anytime, dwelled on the ball when through on goal on Sunday to allow Spain defender Sergio Ramos to get back and make a last-ditch tackle and there have been calls in Italy for the coach to play Di Natale from the start after his impressive second-half appearance.
Other than that possible change, Prandelli intends to field largely the same side which did well against Spain although there is the possibility that the Azzurri may also go with a more defensive-minded left-back in Federico Balzaretti to counter the threat Croatia pose down the right with Darijo Srna and Ivan Rakitic.
If Italy can match their weekend performance, they have every right to believe a win is theirs for the taking on Thursday but there remains a fragility in the squad that Croatia can exploit.
Slaven Bilic’s men excelled against an admittedly limited Irish side in their opener, keeping the ball well and creating plenty of good chances. In fact, they should have won by more than the 3-1 scoreline and could be a real threat in the tournament if they build on that win and improve further.
Mario Mandzukic’s impressive brace has led to speculation that he could be on his way to the Premier League this summer where his strike partner, Nikica Jelavic, is already doing the business for Everton. Those two are a formidable partnership and the Italy defence will need to be on their toes to keep them quiet.
Luka Modric dictated the game from midfield against Ireland and Andrea Pirlo, who would like to do the same for Italy in this one, will have his work cut out just tracking the Spurs ace such was the ground he covered on Sunday.
Bilic is unlikely to make changes after praising the way his players performed against Ireland and expect them to again play an expansive, attacking game in Poznan.
These two sides look fairly well-matched, then, ahead of the Group C clash and a moment of brilliance from the likes of Modric or Balotelli may just decide it.
A draw at 11/5 is appealing but Croatia can edge it to virtually secure qualification and, at the same time, leave Italy staring at an early return home. Go for 2-1 in the correct score at 12/1.
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