Italy growing in stature at Euros

The climax of the Euro 2012 jamboree is now upon us and it is not the ‘dream final‘ that many had predicted, with Italy proving too good for Germany – yet again – to set up a showdown with defending champions Spain in Kiev.

Many expected La Roja to be there again having started the tournament as the favourites on the back of their success in 2008, coupled with a World Cup triumph in South Africa two years ago.

Despite the squad being criticised for their ‘boring’ style of play, manager Vicente del Bosque’s apparent dislike of strikers and the fact they have perhaps not been at their best in Poland and Ukraine, Spain have made it through to the third successive major final having conceded just one goal in five games to date.

Nobody gave Italy much of a chance before the tournament got under way, having suffered defeats in all three of their warm-up games as well as the scandal back home which deprived Cesare Prandelli of a number of players earmarked for his squad.

The lack of a truly big name – such as Alessandro del Piero or Francesco Totti – left some wondering who could be the game-changer if things weren’t going according to plan – but they have improved as the tournament has gone on and were mightily impressive in their knockout victories over England (on penalties) and Germany in the semi-finals.

Spain have been installed as the 6/5 favourites in the match betting, with the Azzurri priced at 13/5 to upset their treble bid and the draw after 90 minutes on offer at 11/5.

Del Bosque’s men are expected to lift the trophy – one or another – as they are 8/15 in the outright betting, with Italy priced at 6/4 for ultimate glory.

These two sides have met in the tournament already as they shared a 1-1 draw in their opening game in Group C which suggests the Italians are far from out of it, and they perhaps are the value bet given the way they dispatched tournament fancies Germany in the last four.

Prandelli now has a striker in form with Mario Balotelli banging in both goals against the Germans to take his tournament tally to three – and he is the 11/8 favourite to go on and be named the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer.

The Manchester City hitman wasted a great chance to score against the Spanish in the group stages but should now be full of confidence and can be backed at 7/1 to score the first/last goal on Sunday and at 10/1 to score 2 or more.

Fernando Torres, with two tournament goals to his name, still has a chance of topping the goal charts and can be backed at 10/1 to do so but punters will be taking a chance on him opening the scoring as a 5/1 favourite as he has not started three of five games in the tournament, and did not even come off the bench against Portugal.

Following his disappointing display in the semis, Alvaro Negredo is unlikely to be given the nod again, which could open the way for Cesc Fabregas to be reinstated in the ‘false nine’ position that Del Bosque appears to favour.

Like Torres, the Barcelona man has two goals to his name and did score in the earlier draw with Italy after Antonio di Natale had put the Azzurri ahead – with that goal still the only one conceded by Spain in the tournament to date.

However, Spain have traditionally found it hard going against Sunday’s opponents in tournament football and have not beaten Italy in 90 minutes in competitive games since 1920, needing penalties to get past the Azzurri in the quarter-finals in 2008.

If Spain manage to gel then it could be a long evening for Italy but they have shown little sign of dominating any match so far – with the exception of the Republic of Ireland cakewalk, while Del Bosque appears unclear as how best to utilise his squad.

Italy, though, have really got it together and having sent a Germany side that many thought were better than Spain packing, they offer the value to cause another shock and put their recent troubles behind them – as they did in 2006.

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Can Pirlo guide Italy to glory?

Italy (11/2 – Euro 2012 Outright) may not have been among many people’s predictions to make even the semi-finals in Poland and Ukraine but now, with midfield genius Andrea Pirlo in such scintillating form, can the Azzurri dare to dream of winning the tournament?

Certainly, before the action got underway this month, very few people were suggesting Cesare Prandelli’s side could make it to the last four but, following their quarter-final win over England on penalties on Sunday, they are in with a chance of glory and prepare to take on Germany on Thursday as lively underdogs.

Italy began the competition with a deserved 1-1 draw against Spain and could yet meet them again in Sunday’s final if they overcome an impressive German outfit first. They followed the first game up with another 1-1 draw – this time against Croatia – before seeing off Ireland 2-0 in their final group game.

It is fair to say they were effective and solid in those games rather than being sparkling but, at times against England, Italy had the look of potential tournament winners with man-of-the-match Pirlo dominating the game and stealing the show.

The veteran star has, like the team in general, grown into the tournament and his display in Kiev was almost perfect. Pirlo picked off passes left, right and centre with the craft and subtlety of a master artist and England’s tiring pair of Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker simply couldn’t get near him as the game progressed.

If he can find a similarly-domineering performance against Germany then, you never know, Italy might just be able to pull off a shock and get to the final (Italy 7/2, Germany 5/6, draw 9/4 – 90 minute prices).

Taking on, and getting the better of, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil, is a tough task, however, as they are all experienced, top international players but Pirlo, aided by the busy Riccardo Montolivo, should not be underestimated.

The Germans are unlikely to do that now after being impressed by the manner of the win over England and another tight semi-final is in prospect.

Italy say they fear no-one left in the tournament and, if they can get past Germany, do not be surprised to see them going on to triumph next Sunday.

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Italy to continue Ireland blues

Like all the other groups at Euro 2012, there is still plenty to play for in Group C and Italy will be desperate to claim all three points to ensure their qualification for the knockout stages when they face the already-eliminated Republic of Ireland on Monday (Italy 2/7, draw 9/2, Ireland 11/1).

So far, all four games in the pool have been absolute crackers but, after both Croatia and Spain beat the Boys in Green, the Azzurri will be expecting a comfortable win.

After a disappointing build-up to the tournament, Cesare Prandelli’s men have quietly impressed in Poland and Ukraine with two solid defensive displays, but will be looking to showcase their attacking prowess when they step out in Poznan.

Italy have often built their success on firm foundations but under Prandelli they have displayed much more offensive tendencies and contain a number of flair players within their ranks.

The most notable of these is perhaps Udinese captain Antonio Di Natale (7/2 first goalscorer) who looks set to start at the Municipal Stadium due to the lingering doubts over the fitness of the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Di Natale has been the top Italian striker in Serie A for the last few seasons and despite being relatively small, has the pace and trickery to trouble any defence.

The 34-year-old scored in the 1-1 draw with Spain and with this likely to be his last major championships, he will be desperate to make an impact.

The Irish have had a torrid time at Euro 2012 and, after being easily outclassed by both Croatia and Spain, know that it is now impossible for them to qualify for the quarter-finals.

However, despite their lack of talent, they’re certainly not short of determination and will not be overawed against their illustrious rivals, especially after they won 2-0 in the two sides’ last meeting.

For a number of Giovanni Trapattoni’s players this may well be their international swansong, as the young side that almost beat Spain at their last major tournament appearance in 2002 is starting to look weary and tired.

As usual, their chances of success will probably revolve around the performance of captain and talisman Robbie Keane (10/1 first goalscorer) who has so far remained coy on his plans for the future.

Although he may be past his best, Keane still has the talent to muster something out of nothing and will be desperate to prove he can cut it on the big stage.

However, despite Ireland’s best efforts, Italy should be more than strong enough to overcome them and, although it may be tight early on, fatigue could play a part in the latter stages, which may open the floodgates (Italy 7/1 to win 3-0).

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Croatia a big test for must-win Italy

With Spain expected to beat the Republic of Ireland in the late Group C game on Thursday, Italy know a win for them  in the 5pm kick-off against Croatia (Italy 5/4, Draw 11/5, Croatia 5/2 in the match betting) is crucial if they are to progress to the knock-out phase of Euro 2012.

Italy began the tournament well with an impressive 1-1 draw against Spain although, after taking the lead in that clash, they may now look back on Sunday as a great chance to have beaten the reigning European champions wasted.

But, all the same, they still head to Poznan in upbeat mood ahead of what will be another test of their credentials against Croatia. Substitute Antonio Di Natale’s strike in Gdansk set them on their way against La Roja and he is in contention to start for Cesare Prandelli’s side with question marks over whether Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli will keep his place in the starting XI alongside Antonio Cassano.

Balotelli, backable at 5/2 to score anytime, dwelled on the ball when through on goal on Sunday to allow Spain defender Sergio Ramos to get back and make a last-ditch tackle and there have been calls in Italy for the coach to play Di Natale from the start after his impressive second-half appearance.

Other than that possible change, Prandelli intends to field largely the same side which did well against Spain although there is the possibility that the Azzurri may also go with a more defensive-minded left-back in Federico Balzaretti to counter the threat Croatia pose down the right with Darijo Srna and Ivan Rakitic.

If Italy can match their weekend performance, they have every right to believe a win is theirs for the taking on Thursday but there remains a fragility in the squad that Croatia can exploit.

Slaven Bilic’s men excelled against an admittedly limited Irish side in their opener, keeping the ball well and creating plenty of good chances. In fact, they should have won by more than the 3-1 scoreline and could be a real threat in the tournament if they build on that win and improve further.

Mario Mandzukic’s impressive brace has led to speculation that he could be on his way to the Premier League this summer where his strike partner, Nikica Jelavic, is already doing the business for Everton. Those two are a formidable partnership and the Italy defence will need to be on their toes to keep them quiet.

Luka Modric dictated the game from midfield against Ireland and Andrea Pirlo, who would like to do the same for Italy in this one, will have his work cut out just tracking the Spurs ace such was the ground he covered on Sunday.

Bilic is unlikely to make changes after praising the way his players performed against Ireland and expect them to again play an expansive, attacking game in Poznan.

These two sides look fairly well-matched, then, ahead of the Group C clash and a moment of brilliance from the likes of Modric or Balotelli may just decide it.

A draw at 11/5 is appealing but Croatia can edge it to virtually secure qualification and, at the same time, leave Italy staring at an early return home. Go for 2-1 in the correct score at 12/1.

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Italy out to repeat 2006 feat

Italy (14/1 to win Euro 2012) may be one of the traditional footballing heavyweights but, ahead of Euro 2012, football in the country is again being weighed down by match-fixing allegations. Will this potential big scandal affect Cesare Prandelli’s side in Poland and Ukraine?

Officials in Italy are looking into the possibility that several Serie A games over the past few years were rigged, while full-back Domenico Criscito was forced out of the squad last week when it emerged he was embroiled in the investigation.

The story has hit the headlines in Italy – and indeed across Europe – in the build-up to the tournament and many have questioned whether the Azzurri will lose their focus as they prepare to tackle an already tough Group C featuring Spain, Croatia and Republic of Ireland over the next few weeks.

The 2006 World Cup winners may have found it tough going getting out of that group anyway but their task may now be much harder because of the ongoing investigation.

Criscito has publicly hit out at the decision to axe him and he believes he has been made a scapegoat by the Italian FA. He is especially unhappy about Juventus defender Leonardo Bonucci’s inclusion despite the fact he is also under investigation but has not received an official notification from the authorities.

All of this has led to some to speculate Italy are in crisis and may well be facing another early plane trip home – like they did in a thoroughly-underwhelming 2010 World Cup campaign.

However, former national boss Marcello Lippi and ex-Italy forward Sandro Mazzola both believe the ongoing match-fixing enquiry could have a similar effect to six years ago when another investigation was the backdrop to the Azzurri’s unlikely triumph in Germany.

Lippi, who was in charge in 2006, said: “It feels as though they are going through the same experience as that of 2006. I remember that week in Coverciano [ahead of the tournament in Germany] was not easy for us and there was the fear of what people would have said of us abroad.

“But no-one said anything in Germany. I believe that as soon as the national team travels to Poland, their only thoughts will be on football, on training and on the European Championship.”

Certainly the argument that the developing scandal will effect the squad was given credence by their limp 3-0 friendly defeat against Russia over the weekend but Mazzola, who has tipped Italy to make the semis, is confident it can have a galvanising effect on the team and could be used as a positive (Italy 3/1 to win Group C).

“I think the national team was conditioned by what happened during the week in their game against Russia,” he said. “But in any case the performance was not good and they only had two chances of goal throughout the game.

“Regardless of that game, I believe the national team can be among the top four at the European Championship.”

Any squad with the talent of Andrea Pirlo, Mario Balotelli (20/1 – Top Goalscorer) and Antonio Cassano in it must be respected but the fear is it will also be a squad crippled by anxiety over the continuing developments back home.

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Italy target pre-Euros lift

Italy take on fellow Euro 2012 qualifiers Russia in an international friendly on Friday night as the Azzurri look to get in shape for the summer’s tournament in Poland and Ukraine.

Once the powerhouses of European football, Italy now sit in the shadows of the likes of Spain and Germany, so what chances of success do they have this summer? (Italy 14/1 – Euro 2012 Outright)

Cesare Prandelli’s side won their group to make it to Euro 2012 but it was not without a few dodgy moments, the goalless draw with Northern Ireland and only a 1-0 win over the Faroe Islands raised a few eyebrows and let’s not forget the Serbia game, where they were awarded a 3-0 win after the opposition fans rioted.

They take on Russia on Friday night and will be looking for a real confidence boost on the eve of the tournament, especially vital as their scheduled friendly with Luxembourg in Parma on Tuesday was cancelled due to the earthquake near the region earlier that day. (Italy 23/20, draw 21/10, Russia 9/4 – 90 Minutes)

Dick Advocaat’s Russia are going to be no push-overs and are themselves preparing for Poland and Ukraine, with the Dutchman’s side built on a solid defensive unit and that is exemplified by the fact that – bar their 6-0 win over Andorra – they scored only 11 goals in nine qualifying games.

The Group A side possess talent like Andrey Arshavin, Alan Dzagoev and Roman Pavlyuchenko, so Italy cannot under-estimate them as they look to get their camp in order before starting their Euro 2012 campaign against defending champions Spain on June 10th. (Spain 4/5, draw 12/5, Italy 10/3 – 90 Minutes)

Italy are traditionally strong in defence and their narrow formation, which Prandelli usually packs with four central midfielders, means they retain possession well. But it is up-front where things could go well, or very wrong, for the Italians this summer.

Antonio Cassano is just back after having heart surgery in November and he led the way during qualifying and then there is the wildcard that is Mario Balotelli, who looks likely to play a lead role after being given the number nine shirt.

The Manchester City man, who this week vowed to walk off the pitch if he suffers racist abuse, was recently left out by Prandelli but the boss now claims the trust for forward “100%”. With veteran forward Antonio Di Natale, Fabio Borini and Sebastian Giovinco the other options, Italy need Balotelli to have a big tournament.

Italy have the hardest start possible against the defending European and World champions Spain, but following that they should fancy their chances against fellow Group C sides Croatia and the Republic of Ireland.

But they could run into the Spanish again at the quarter-finals and that looks about the level Italian fans should expect to see their side progress this summer. (2/1 Quarter-Finals – Italy Stage of Elimination)

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Italy reeling from Buffon blow

Italy goalkeeper Gianluigi BuffonAn injury to Gianluigi Buffon that will sideline the goalkeeper for Sunday’s Group F match against New Zealand is a major blow for Italy, defender Giorgio Chiellini has admitted (2/11 Italy 11/2 draw 14/1 New Zealand – match betting).

Buffon, the Juventus stopper, suffered a herniated disc and is out indefinitely after being substituted during his team’s 1-1 draw with Paraguay in their World Cup Group F opener.

He will miss Sunday’s match against New Zealand in Nelspruit and almost certainly their final group game against Slovakia on June 24 in Johannesburg.

“Gigi has charisma,” said Chiellini.

“He gives strength to others. His saves’ worth are like goals from strikers.

“I know what it means for him to play at the World Cup.

“We miss Gianluigi as a man and we hope he will recover as soon as possible.”

However, the Juventus defender believes Cagliari goalkeeper Federico Marchetti will be a good replacement.

“Federico has matured,” said Chiellini.

“He proved against Paraguay that he is a good goalkeeper and he is calm and ready to help the team.”

Chiellini believes the team will improve as the tournament goes on (8/15 Italy – Group F winner).

“Italy can do well,” he said. “We want to score more goals and we will continue to grow as a team.

“Perhaps the draw between New Zealand and Slovakia is a point in our favour but we will have to show a lot of strength to beat New Zealand and finish first of our group in order to avoid facing Holland in the next round.”

Chiellini expects a tough match against New Zealand, a side Italy faced last year in a friendly in Pretoria which ended 4-3 in favour of the reigning world champions.

“New Zealand are a very physical side, mentally strong and dangerous in dead-ball situations,” Chiellini said.

“They take few risks and I remember last year they scored two goals against us because of dead-ball situations.

“We need to bring more flair in attack and take more shots.

“I don’t want to think about a draw.”

Italy will also be without playmaker Andrea Pirlo for the clash against New Zealand but are hopeful the AC Milan man will return in time for the match against Slovakia.

Meanwhile, Marchetti says he is worried about the official Jabulani ball ahead of his first ever World Cup start.

The 27-year-old Cagliari goalkeeper said: “We know the ball does unexpected things and the goalkeepers, like defenders and strikers have to expect a change of trajectory or a strange bounce.

“The pitches are heavily watered so the ball skips off the surface really quickly and hence that makes things much harder.”

Marchetti also agreed with England coach and compatriot Fabio Capello that this is the worst ball he’s ever played with.

He added: “It’s a difficult ball, I think it’s the worst. Gigi (Buffon) and Morgan (De Sanctis) who have played in previous World Cups and have the experience of other balls say it’s the worst of all time.

“The thing that makes you understand just how bad it is, is that all players are complaining about it.

“The flight changes unexpectedly. High balls, low balls, the flight is not that of a normal ball.

“It’s difficult to read and goes faster than normal balls.”

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Italy sweating on Pirlo fitness

Italy will wait a week before deciding whether to call up an emergency replacement for midfielder Andrea Pirlo.

Pirlo suffered a calf injury in the world champions’ 2-1 defeat to Mexico on Thursday, and medical staff expect him to be out for up to 20 days (Italy 9/4 to be eliminated in the quarter-finals).

That would rule Pirlo out of the opening Group F fixture against Paraguay in Cape Town on June 14. (Italy 5/6 to win, Paraguay 16/5, draw 23/10)

“He will probably travel to South Africa but will, for sure, miss the first game,” said Enrico Castellacci, Italy’s head doctor.

The 2006 World Cup winner now faces a race to be fit for the second Group F game against New Zealand.

“It’s an injury which worries me but there’s time,” Castellacci said, saying the recovery period was at least 15 days.

“The intention is to take him to South Africa to see if he can be fit. Before June 13 we can change players in the squad.”

Pirlo, who would have been a definite starter, has left the Azzurri’s training camp in the Italian Alps to rest at home.

He was due to miss Saturday’s final friendly with Switzerland in Geneva in any case after coach Marcello Lippi said he would use players who did not feature against Mexico.

Lippi already has concerns over winger Mauro Camoranesi, who has a knee injury, and the loss of Pirlo for any games at the World Cup would be a big blow to the holders.

Castellacci said Camoranesi was progressing well. Lippi had already put midfielder Andrea Cossu, left out of the 23-man squad, on alert to go to South Africa if Camoranesi was not fit and the Cagliari man would also be the most like-for-like replacement for Pirlo.

If both Pirlo and Camoranesi are not fit for the tournament, midfielder Antonio Candreva could come in having been in the provisional 30-man squad.

Pirlo’s dead-ball ability and neat passing were key to Italy’s 2006 triumph but he has struggled for AC Milan in the last two years.

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Camoranesi backs Italy for glory

Mauro Camoranesi believes that no side will want to play Italy (12-1 to win the tournament) at the World Cup in South Africa this summer.

The Juventus winger has been named in coach Marcello Lippi’s 30-man preliminary list despite having a disappointing qualifying campaign for the Azzurri.

Whether or not he is given the nod for the final 23-man squad remains to be seen but the Argentine-born Italian feels confident that the reigning champions are still the side to beat at the World Cup, four years on from glory in Germany.

“This is a very strong Italy squad for the World Cup and if I look at our opponents, nobody wants to take us on,” he said.

“The other teams know they’d be facing a side that has lifting the trophy as its sole objective.”

Whether or not teams such as Spain (4-1 favourites to lift the trophy), Brazil (5-1) and England (6-1 to win their first World Cup since 1966) will be quaking in their boots following the Juventus’ winger’s comments is open to question but Camoranesi also revealed whom he feels might have a say in proceedings this summer.

“History tells us the favourites for the World Cup are always the same, basically: Germany, Brazil, Argentina, and France,” he added. “On top of them Spain have proved they are very strong by winning Euro 2008 and will fight to the end.”

The 33-year-old also believes that England have a chance with Fabio Capello in charge as they have improved “a great deal” in recent times.

While the market suggests that Italy could have their work cut out to defend their title over the coming weeks, they are 1-14 to make it out of Group F, with Slovakia priced at 5-4, Paraguay on offer at 1-2 and New Zealand the outsiders at 12-1.

Spain have never won the sport’s most prestigious event but are favourites to go all the way this summer and are, not surprisingly, 21-10 favourites to be top European team.

England are next best priced at 13-5, while Holland trade at 13-2, the Italians can be backed at 7-1 with Germany on offer at 15-2.

Many pundits are predicting a wide open contest in southern Africa this time around and Italy’s aging squad might find the conditions catch up with them, despite Camoranesi’s bullish comments heading into the pre-tournament warm-up games.

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World Cup Outsiders Italy Offer Great Betting Value

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world cup trophy 225x300 World Cup Outsiders Italy Offer Great Betting ValueMarcello Lippi’s provisional 30-man squad has been confirmed, with a blend of experience and fresh talent, la Nazionale will be hopeful of retaining the Cup they won in 2006.

Roma forward Luca Toni has been dropped, as has Juventus’ Nicola Legrottaglie. Giuseppe Rossi of Villarreal is newly included. To be expected, Roma’s Daniele De Rossi has been picked for the squad despite missing out on the training programme last week due to the Coppa Italia final.

Here is the full squad list as confirmed by the FIGC.

Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Buffon, Morgan de Sanctis, Federico Marchetti, Salvatore Sirigu

Defenders: Fabio Cannavaro, Fabio Grosso, Giorgio Chiellini, Gianluca Zambrotta, Domenico Criscito, Christian Maggio, Salvatore Bocchetti, Mattia Cassani, Leonardi Bonucci

Midfielders: Gennaro Gattuso, Andrea Pirlo, Mauro Camoranesi, Daniele De Rossi, Angelo Palombo, Simone Pepe, Riccardo Montolivo, Claudio Marchisio, Antonio Candreva,Andrea Cossu

Forwards: Alberto Gilardino, Vincenzo Iaquinta, Antonio Di Natale, Fabio Quagliarella, Giuseppe Rossi, Marco Borriello, Giampaolo Pazzini

The current holders of the World Cup, Italy are fairly long odds at 15.00 to retain the World Cup in South Africa. A host of other nations including Holland (13.00), Germany (13.00), and England (7.00) are shorter odds than the Italians.

Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon believe Italy have a good chance of winning the trophy due to the expertise and high calibre within the squad.

“We have many experienced players. I say we are experts, not old. Looking how we can play at high levels for long periods, we can go far in the competition,” Pirlo recently said during an interview.

It has to be said that the odds on Italy are likely to go down rapidly should they get some good results prior to the tournament. So back them now at a fat 15.00 to lift the World Cup with PartyBets.com.

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