Toon value to upset Liverpool

There are two Premier League matches on Sunday, with the focus very much on the race for European places with Newcastle entertaining Liverpool and Tottenham hosting Swansea.

The Magpies of course surprised everyone with their successful start to the season but continue to impress and still remain in contention for an unlikely Champions League berth.

Alan Pardew’s men are five points behind fourth-placed Spurs and level with Chelsea going into the weekend’s fixtures, while a victory on Sunday will take the Toon 11 points clear of Liverpool.

That would surely secure a Europa League spot at the very least if it were to happen, although the match betting suggests Liverpool will take the points as they are priced at 7/5, with Newcastle at 15/8 and the draw at 12/5.

However, Newcastle look good value to pick up the win as they have bounced back from a blip in form to record back-to-back wins, looking impressive last week in a 3-1 win at the Hawthorns.

The Magpies have only lost twice at home all season – to Chelsea and West Brom – while they have won five and drawn two of their seven games at St James’ Park this year.

Papiss Cisse has made a hugely impressive start to his career on the North East with five goals in just six appearances – only Wayne Rooney has scored more in the Premier League in that time – and he must be considered in the goal scoring markets, priced at 11/2 First/Last Goalscorer and 3/2 Anytime.

The Senegalese forward has forged a useful partnership with Demba Ba on Tyneside and looks better value to reward backers given that his compatriot (5/1 First/Last, 11/8 Anytime) has scored just once on his return from African Cup of Nations duty and none in his last six games.

Liverpool did beat Newcastle 3-1 in the reverse fixture at Anfield and have won six of the last seven meetings but look a shade short in the betting considering their recent run of form.

Kenny Dalglish’s men have lost five of their last six league matches, winning only two of 11 this year, have lost their last three on the road and have recently been beaten by strugglers QPR and Wigan.

Pardew enjoyed a 3-1 win in this fixture last season in his match at the helm and he can celebrate again come Sunday, which would all but secure that top six berth.

Spurs’ title challenge has petered out of late while they are also in danger of missing out on the Champions League but remain strong favourites at 2/5 to get back to winning ways in the league, with Swansea on offer at 15/2 and the draw at 7/2 in the match betting.

Harry Redknapp’s men have not won in the Premier League since trouncing Newcastle in February but of course have kept their FA Cup run going, impressing in a 3-1 win over Bolton on Tuesday.

It has not all been doom and gloom though in the top-flight of late and with a bit more luck could have picked up better results, but Aaron Lennon’s expected return is a welcome boost as it will restore a bit more balance to what is arguably the best footballing side in the division.

Swansea though have enjoyed their debut in the Premier League and have now won their last three matches on the road, despite only securing their first away-day success in January.

The Swans have also recently beaten Manchester City at the Liberty Stadium so will not be over-awed going to White Hart Lane, although Everton eased to a 2-0 win in South Wales last week.

The price about the Swans will look tempting to some with all the pressure on the hosts to come up with the goods, but that could still work in Spurs’ favour and there is no doubt they have the talent to beat any side on their day – and they need to to keep pace with arch rivals Arsenal.

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La Liga value to be had

There is a triple header of La Liga action on Thursday which will have a big bearing on the outcomes at both ends of the table, with two Champions League chasers going head to head as well as struggling sides looking for points to beat the drop.

Real Betis started the season in promising fashion following their promotion back to the top flight but have been struggling to put points on the board of late and have slumped to 16th in the table.

The Verdiblancos do have home advantage for this clash and have been priced at 21/20 in the match betting, but there looks to be value in opposing a side that has lost their last three matches and who were recently beaten by strugglers Granada at the Benito Villamarin.

Admittedly Espanyol do not boast the best record on the road with just three wins to their name, but the Parakeets are not in seventh place in the table without reason – and they have the ability to get something from the game (Espanyol 12/5 to win, 12/5 the draw).

The Catalan side were soundly beaten 5-0 on their last trip but there is no disgrace in coming second to Real Madrid in the capital, and they have picked up points at Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao and Getafe recently – goals have been a problem for both sides though so do not expect a thriller.

Racing Santander are in the middle of an awful run of form, having not won since January 15, and now find themselves in the relegation zone and in danger of getting cut adrift.

Los Racinguistas lie in 18th place in the table but are three points away from safety and six behind the team, Betis, in 16th place, so they are desperately in need of a win.

Racing are priced at 2/1 to make home advantage count and, although that price seems attractive against a struggling side, Sevilla have the ammunition to keep the pressure on Alvaro Cervera’s men.

Racing have just three wins at home to their name this season but have also picked up points courtesy of seven draws – including Valencia, Atletico Madrid and Sporting Gijon recently.

However, goals are a massive issue and they simply do not score enough – Racing are the joint-worst scorers in the division and have mustered just nine in front of their own fans, the only team in single figures at home.

Sevilla have not been the force of old this season but have shown signs of a European charge of late with successive wins over Osasuna and Valencia, as well as a draw against Atletico.

However, they go into the game on the back of successive defeats and have fallen to 12th place in the table.

A 1-0 loss at second-from-bottom Sporting does not read too well but they can take encouragement from a 2-0 reverse against Barcelona and, having won at the Mestalla last month, they can pick up the win at 13/10, with the draw on offer at 9/4.

Again, do not expect a rip-roarer as the Sevillistas have scored a mere eight goals on the road, two of which came against Valencia.

Last but not least, the game that promises to be the most entertaining is Malaga’s match with Rayo Vallecano at La Rosaleda with the kick-off at 9pm.

Both sides will hold hopes of Champions League qualification with Malaga currently lying in fifth place, level on points with Levante, with Rayo just four points below them in the table in ninth.

Los Boquerones have spent big this season and the cash influx is starting to bear fruit, not least at home where they boast La Liga’s fourth-best scoring record – behind Real, Barca and Athletic Bilbao.

Malaga have made La Rosaleda something of a fortress, having lost just twice there all season, and it is no surprise to see them installed as 1/4 favourites in the match betting.

Rayo are no mugs on the road though with five wins and three draws in 13 games and there will be some that may be tempted by 4/1 on the away win, with the draw priced at 13/5.

Whichever way, there certainly looks to be a case for goals though as nine of Malaga’s 13 home games have gone over 2.5 goals, and four of the last five, while all of Rayo’s last six away games have surpassed that mark as well.

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Rams value to maul Foxes

There is a full programme in the Championship on Saturday as the table begins to take shape nine games into the season and the stand-out match has to be the surprise package so far, Derby County, travelling to East Midlands rivals Leicester City.

Moneybags Leicester were busy in the transfer window this summer as they look to return to the ‘promised land’ of Premier League football and are third in the betting to win the Championship, priced at 7/1.

However, it has not been the start to the season they would have hoped for as the new arrivals are perhaps taking their time to gel and they lie six points behind the leaders, down in 11th place in the table.

And one of three teams that share 19 points at the top is Derby, and the Rams are looking for their seventh win in 10 matches to seal their best start to a season for 42 years.

Sven Goran Eriksson’s men have had the better of the recent record between the two, winning both fixtures 2-0 last season (13/2 repeat scoreline), and have been installed as the 4/6 favourites in the match betting.

However, the Foxes have won two and lost two of their four games at the King Power Stadium and although they have gone six games unbeaten in the league, they are struggling to come out on top as four of those results have been draws.

County, in contrast, have won three of the four games on their travels and although a defeat at Coventry earlier in the season and a 1-1 draw against Barnsley last time out do not look impressive, surely a form side is worth considering at a huge price of 4/1, while the draw is available at 11/4.

Leicester have higher profile players in their squad but Jermaine Beckford (5/1 First Goalscorer) is an injury concern for Eriksson along with Richie Wellens, both groin, while Michael Johnson is suffering with a shoulder problem.

However, one-time England striker David Nugent is available again after a hamstring complaint and is priced at 11/2 First/Last Goalscorer, along with Darius Vassell, while Steve Davies is a 15/8 joint favourite to Score Anytime for Derby – no surprise after having bagged five already this term.

West Ham look a good shout to take the points at Selhurst Park in a London derby against Crystal Palace and are Evens favourites in the match betting, with the Eagles on offer at 11/4 and the draw at 12/5.

The Hammers have only ever lost two away matches in this fixture and are unbeaten on their travels this season, with three wins and a draw, scoring nine goals in the process and conceding just one.

The fact that West Ham were beaten at home by Ipswich in midweek might work in their favour as well as Sam Allardyce will want, expect and demand a positive response.

Middlesbrough look a cracking price at 19/10 to continue their perfect away record at Reading, with the home side priced at 11/8 and the draw at 12/5.

It is at the Riverside where Boro have had their problems, although they remain unbeaten this season, with just one win and four draws.

However, Boro have been unstoppable scoring seven goals and conceding just one in their first four wins away from the Riverside.

The Royals lost Shane Long to West Brom before the transfer window shut and have struggled to perform in front of their own fans so far.

Reading are unbeaten in three going into this fixture, winning two of them, but did suffer a 2-0 reverse against Watford before the streak started and will have their work cut out.

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Premier League value bets

With pre-season well underway and the transfer market continuing to build towards an exciting crescendo it’s time to begin looking at the best bets for the Premier League season.

For all those putting their mortgage on Manchester United to win the title again, or Swansea to be relegated, it might be time to think outside the box for those bets  which offer better value for money.

Manchester City to be crowned champions

Three years ago, when it looked like City might go belly up after being left high and dry by Thaksin Shinawatra, it was impossible to imagine they might one day challenge for the Premier League title.

However, nearly a billion pounds later and City are in the Champions League and have ended their long wait for silverware by winning the FA Cup.

Sheikh Mansour’s vision for the blue half of Manchester is starting to materialise and in Roberto Mancini the club have a manager who might divide opinion but will normally get the job done.

In 2005 we watched the money Roman Abramovich had poured into Chelsea come good as they lifted the first of three Premier League crowns.

It stands to reason then that before too long the club with the most money will eventually buy the title.

City are 4/1 to do just that next season, a decent price for a team which continues to improve year-on-year.

Of course, local rivals United (7/4) will have a big say in the destination of the title but having brought in youth this summer it might be a season of transition for Sir Alex Ferguson’s men.

Could the blue moon finally rise for Mancini & co?

Javier Hernandez to secure the golden boot

This Mexican speedster caught us all by surprise last season when he burst on to the scene at Old Trafford, scoring 20 goals in 45 appearances for the Red Devils.

His ability to score when United needed it most earned him comparisons with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a man who knew a thing or two about goalscoring.

Hernandez’s performances look as though they have cemented him a place in the United team, alongside Wayne Rooney, and you’d expect him to be one of the first names on Sir Alex Ferguson’s team sheet next season.

Hernandez is 17/2 to be the top goalscorer in the Premier League next season, a very appealing price when you consider the amount of ammunition he is going to receive from the likes Ashley Young, Nani and Antonio Valencia.

Rooney and wantaway Carlos Tevez are the 8/1 favourites.

Sunderland to the league’s next best

A look at totesport’s Premier League market without the top six makes for some interesting reading for value hunters.

As most people will predict Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool will probably make up the top six we are looking for the next best team.

Sunderland are 6/1 to finish seventh effectively, a great price when you think Steve Bruce has kept the majority of his squad together from last season, while adding some quality in David Vaughan, Craig Gardner and Connor Wickham.

The Black Cats threatened to finish in a European spot last season before tailing off due to a crippling injury crisis. Having added some strength in depth Sunderland could get the better of the likes of Everton (13/8) and Aston Villa (7/2).

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World Cup Outsiders Italy Offer Great Betting Value

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world cup trophy 225x300 World Cup Outsiders Italy Offer Great Betting ValueMarcello Lippi’s provisional 30-man squad has been confirmed, with a blend of experience and fresh talent, la Nazionale will be hopeful of retaining the Cup they won in 2006.

Roma forward Luca Toni has been dropped, as has Juventus’ Nicola Legrottaglie. Giuseppe Rossi of Villarreal is newly included. To be expected, Roma’s Daniele De Rossi has been picked for the squad despite missing out on the training programme last week due to the Coppa Italia final.

Here is the full squad list as confirmed by the FIGC.

Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Buffon, Morgan de Sanctis, Federico Marchetti, Salvatore Sirigu

Defenders: Fabio Cannavaro, Fabio Grosso, Giorgio Chiellini, Gianluca Zambrotta, Domenico Criscito, Christian Maggio, Salvatore Bocchetti, Mattia Cassani, Leonardi Bonucci

Midfielders: Gennaro Gattuso, Andrea Pirlo, Mauro Camoranesi, Daniele De Rossi, Angelo Palombo, Simone Pepe, Riccardo Montolivo, Claudio Marchisio, Antonio Candreva,Andrea Cossu

Forwards: Alberto Gilardino, Vincenzo Iaquinta, Antonio Di Natale, Fabio Quagliarella, Giuseppe Rossi, Marco Borriello, Giampaolo Pazzini

The current holders of the World Cup, Italy are fairly long odds at 15.00 to retain the World Cup in South Africa. A host of other nations including Holland (13.00), Germany (13.00), and England (7.00) are shorter odds than the Italians.

Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon believe Italy have a good chance of winning the trophy due to the expertise and high calibre within the squad.

“We have many experienced players. I say we are experts, not old. Looking how we can play at high levels for long periods, we can go far in the competition,” Pirlo recently said during an interview.

It has to be said that the odds on Italy are likely to go down rapidly should they get some good results prior to the tournament. So back them now at a fat 15.00 to lift the World Cup with PartyBets.com.

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