Following the first leg of the Champions League semi-finals this week, the odds point to an all-Spanish final, with Real Madrid (8/13 – To Qualify) and Barcelona (4/11) fancied to make it to Munich on May 19.
Surprisingly both La Liga outfits slipped to first-leg defeats, with Real going down 2-1 to Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena while Barca found Chelsea a tough nut to crack and slumped to a 1-0 loss at Stamford Bridge.
But both sides are expected to bounce back on home soil after Jose Mourinho’s men secured what could prove to be a priceless away goal in Germany while Pep Guardiola’s side just need to beat the Blues to progress and, given their Nou Camp record this season, it would take a brave man to back against the reigning champions.
However, it must be noted that no side has ever retained the Champions League since it came into existence in its current format back in 1992 which sounds a note of caution over piling your mortgage on the holders.
Now in its 20th season since the evolution from the old European Cup, the Champions League final has pitted teams from the same nation together on just three occasions – Spain in 2000 when Real Madrid faced Valencia, in 2003 when AC Milan took on Juventus and four years ago when Manchester United met Chelsea in Moscow.
So the stats seem to point towards one of either Real or Barca failing to justify favouritism to qualify for the final although, by the same token, history is always waiting to be made and Real’s away goal just about swings it in their favour.
As far as Barcelona are concerned, they are the current 11/10 outright favourites and their home form this season suggests they will at least contest the final.
The Catalan giants have won 27 games out of 30 at the Nou Camp this season – the other three matches were drawn – scoring 104 goals in the process and conceding just 16 times.
True, not all of their opponents have been in the class of Chelsea whose old guard are staging one last stand but next Tuesday could well represent a game too far for a club who seem to be playing off the cuff since the departure of Andre Villas-Boas.
The young Portuguese manager seemed to have a plan over revamping the squad, however he forgot to factor in the need to secure results while doing so and paid the price with his job.
Caretaker boss Roberto Di Matteo seems to be taking games as they come but that is mainly down to having no other choice given the short-term nature of his mandate at the helm of what is now a top European club.
As a footnote, Barcelona (4/6 – 90 Minutes) entertain Real Madrid (3/1) in El Clasico at the Nou Camp on Saturday night knowing defeat would give their arch-rivals and current La Liga leaders a seven-point advantage with four games to come after this weekend.
The game at the Bernabeu ended 3-1 in Barca’s favour last December and another win for Guardiola’s men this weekend by the same scoreline pays out at 12s.
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