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Poles to avoid Greek tragedy

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Co-hosts Poland will be aiming to get Euro 2012 off to a winning start when they face Group A rivals Greece in the tournament curtain-raiser in Warsaw’s impressive Stadion Narodowy on Friday evening.

Coach Franciszek Smuda’s side will carry the hopes of the nation on their shoulders and will no doubt feel an opening game against the Greeks, who stunned Europe to win Euro 2004, will be the perfect opportunity to get off to a flying start.

The Poles are in good form ahead of the match having won five and drawn one of their last six friendly matches – their last defeat was a 2-0 reverse at the hands of Italy in November 2011.

Smuda looks set to field Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny between the sticks, while he faces a dilemma as to whether Lukasz Piszczek or Grzegorz Wojtkowiak will start in the back four for the match.

Poland have operated with a five-man midfield in the pre-tournament friendly matches and Smuda is likely to stick with that 4-5-1 formation, while Borussia Dortmund’s lethal striker Robert Lewandowski (7/4 – Anytime Goalscorer) will get the nod as a lone frontman.

Greece were the opening game opponents for Portugal in 2004 and they won that match 2-1 before going on to defeat the hosts 1-0 in the final so no doubt coach Fernando Santos will be hoping it is an omen for them in 2012.

The Greeks qualified impressively as they topped their respective group by remaining unbeaten in 10 matches with seven wins and three draws to their name.

However, things have gone off the boil in pre-tournament friendly encounters as they have secured just one victory from their five games played – a 1-0 win on neutral ground against Armenia.

Santos will call on the veteran duo of Giorgios Karagounis and Kostas Katsouranis – who were in the Euro 2004 winning team – to operate in midfield for the game, while Celtic’s Georgios Samaras (10/1 – First or Last Goalscorer) will be looking for a starting role in attack ahead of the likes of Dimitris Salpigidis or Theofanis Gekas depending on what formation the coach decides on.

Looking at the previous encounters and everything goes in Poland’s favour as they have won five of their seven meetings, including four on home soil, while Greece’s only win was in their own backyard back in 1987.

When pondering the outcome of this game the fact the Poles have home advantage, and the vast majority of a sell-out partisan crowd will be giving their players some vociferous support, should stand them in good stead.

Greece have struggled in Poland in the past and will no doubt look to put their strong defensive attributes – only five goals conceded in 10 qualifying matches – to the test (5/2 – To Keep A Clean Sheet) to try and quieten the natives for as long as possible before searching for an opening at the opposite end of the field.

However, as group openers are usually cagey affairs with neither side wanting to lose, expect Poland to nick a narrow, low-scoring narrow.

Prediction: Poland To Win – 90 Minutes @ evens
Value Bet: Lewandowski 1st goal and Poland To Win 1-0 Scorecast @ 16/1

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Hammers out to avoid Hornets’ sting

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Midweek Championship matches usually throw up a few surprise results but with three of the four teams in action on Wednesday desperate for the three points in the battle for promotion surely there won’t be any shocks on the cards?

West Ham will fancy their chances against Watford, while Cardiff will be looking to bounce back from defeat to the Hammers against Brighton.

West Ham v Watford 7:45pm

Depending on how Tuesday night’s matches go West Ham could go top of the Championship with a win over Watford. The Hammers look to be building a head of steam for the final 13 matches of the season, losing just once in their last eight outings.

Sunday’s win in Cardiff was as professional a performance as you are likely to see in the Championship, West Ham taking full advantage of a demoralised Bluebirds team to pick up another three points. Away from home Sam Allardyce’s men have been performing well recently, the win in Wales coming after they had put Blackpool to the sword.

At home though West Ham have drawn the last two – against Southampton and Crystal Palace. Maybe the pressure placed on them by the expectant West Ham supporters is taking its toll? Whatever it is, it will give Watford hope of causing an upset.

The Hornets are what you would call a typical Championship team, unpredictable, and on their day capable of beating anyone. Before last Saturday’s remarkable 3-2 win over Burnley, Watford had been stuffed by Crystal Palace and Southampton. Manager Sean Dyche will hope the victory over the Clarets will have restored his team’s confidence and that they will at least put on a show at Upton Park.

West Ham are 4/7 to beat Watford , who have won just three times away from Vicarage Road all season. However, it won’t be easy and draw half-time/ West Ham full time result at 3/1 should appeal. Watford won on their last visit to Upton Park and if you expect them to cause another upset you can get them at 5/1.

Brighton v Cardiff City 7:45pm

Based on Sunday’s defeat to West Ham, Cardiff’s Carling Cup exploits could have a detrimental effect on their hopes of being promoted. The Bluebirds have lost four of the last five in the league, and rather than galvanise the squad their fine performance in the final against Liverpool appears to have taken a lot out of the players.

Malky Mackay has conceded a top-two finish is beyond Cardiff’s reach and has called on his team to get their act together or risk missing out on the play-offs. Victory for the Welsh side would lift them back into the play-off places but it won’t be easy at the Amex Stadium.

Brighton’s away form might be patchy but at home they are a tough nut to crack, losing just one of the last 11 on their own patch and keeping clean sheets in four of the last five on the south coast. The Seagulls could be in the play-offs had it not been for a late El Hadji Diouf penalty rescuing a point for Doncaster and they will be keen to make amends.

Brighton were excellent in their last outing at home against in-form Ipswich, beating the Tractor Boys 3-0. Gus Poyet seems to have rediscovered some of that gold dust which gave them such a flying start in the Championship and they will be confident of picking apart Cardiff.

Brighton are 11/8 to win at home and that looks a solid enough bet, as does Craig Mackail-Smith to score first at 13/2. The Scottish striker recently ended his goal drought and has got two in the last two, prompting thoughts he could be about to go on a run of finding the back of the net. You can get 40/1 on Mackail-Smith as first goalscorer and Brighton to win 2-0 if you are feeling extra brave.

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Spurs to avoid Hornets’ sting

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Watford are hoping to spring a surprise on Friday night when they take on Tottenham in the FA Cup fourth round at Vicarage Road, but the north Londoners should have too much for them.

The Hornets will be hoping Spurs are still reeling from their last-gasp defeat by Manchester City in the Premier League last Sunday – a result which put a major dent in their Premier League title aspirations.

Tottenham will be looking to bounce back from that Etihad Stadium loss and may see the FA Cup as their only chance for silverware this season, given that they now trail table-toppers City by eight points.

But Watford, currently 18th in the Championship, are no mugs at home and their recent defeat by Reading was their first in nine games.

Tottenham are favourites at 2/5, though the Hornets will be looking to maintain their decent form at Vicarage Road by attempting to beat their illustrious opponents and are 11/2 to cause an upset.

With a midweek Premier League fixture, Spurs could rest a few players, meaning Jermain Defoe may get another start, and with five goals in his last nine games he may be a decent bet for First Goalscorer at 6/1.

The Championship outfit will fancy their chances of scoring against a Spurs side that has only kept two clean sheets in their last 11 away games, with Marvin Sordell priced at 10/1 to net first.

Tottenham seem likely to edge the match but Watford can hold them until half-time before the north Londoners’ Premier League class tells.

Friday’s other FA Cup tie is an all-Premier League affair, with Everton taking on Fulham at Goodison Park.

With the sides level on points in the Premier League, it may prove to be a close affair with the draw offering value at 9/4. Everton start favourites at 10/11, but Fulham – at 5/2 – go into the match after an impressive 5-2 demolition of Newcastle at Craven Cottage last weekend.

Clint Dempsey scored a hat-trick against the Magpies and the American is in form with that being his second three-goal haul in three games, the first of which was against Charlton in the previous round.

With 15 goals to his name already this season, Dempsey is 6/1 to add to that total by opening the scoring at Goodison.

Everton, on the other hand, are finding goals hard to come by this season, with left-back Leighton Baines their top scorer with four.

The Toffees will hope Tim Cahill will now step up to the goal-scoring plate after netting his first goal in 35 matches in the 1-1 draw with Blackburn last Saturday.

The Aussie is 7/1 to open the scoring in the fourth-round clash as Everton look to embark on a decent FA Cup run to make up for their indifferent Premier League form.

Even though the Goodison club will start favourites, 10/11 offers scant value about such a shot-shy unit and punters may decide an in-form Dempsey can earn Martin Jol’s men a replay back at Craven Cottage.

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Fabio keen to avoid Swiss miss

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England boss Fabio Capello is expected to name his strongest possible team for Saturday’s Euro 2012 qualifier against Switzerland at Wembley on Saturday.

The Three Lions are the current leaders of Group G but they are level on points with Montenegro, who host Bulgaria on the same day, and Capello is keen to wrap up qualification as soon as possible.

However, star striker Wayne Rooney is suspended and Andy Carroll is sidelined, meaning Aston Villa’s Darren Bent is the most likely candidate to lead the line.

Villa may have struggled throughout the 2010/2011 season but Bent has been in fine form, scoring 11 goals since his January switch to the Midlands club.

Bent is 8/11 to score at anytime, while the former Sunderland man is a much more attractive 10/3 to open the scoring or 9/2 to grab a brace.

England are the heavy 1/3 favourites, with Switzerland 8/1 and the draw 7/2, but the Swiss are a well organised side and they could make things difficult for Fabio Capello’s men.  In the Half-Time/Full-Time market a draw/England result is priced at 3/1.

Switzerland may be well organised and relatively strong at the back but their attacking options are limited and lack any real threat going forward.

Capello is also expected to name a back-four of Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson and John Terry for the tie at Wembley.  On paper, and according to the majority of pundits, that is England’s strongest defensive combination and they should be able to keep a clean sheet.

An England clean sheet is priced at 10/11, which is worth some consideration, but England are 11/10 to win to nil and this may be the better option of the two bets.

Rooney’s likely replacement is Theo Walcott, with James Milner or Adam Johnson the other possibilities and the Arsenal winger tends to impress on the international stage.  Walcott is also keen to impress Capello after missing out on the 2010 World Cup and the 22-year-old is 7/4 to score at anytime in the match.

Switzerland’s most likely goalscorer, if they do manage to break England’s resolve, is Bayer Leverkusen striker Eren Derdiyok. Coach Ottmar Hitzfeld has chosen uncapped duo Innocent Emeghara, 22, and Admir Mehmedi, 20, as his other forward options and it remains to be seen if they will be able to rise to the occasion.

Derdiyok does not have an outstanding pedigree in terms of international goals but he is a talented striker and can be backed at 10/3 to score at anytime, or 11/1 to score the last goal.  Derdiyok’s Leverkusen team-mate Tranquillo Barnetta could be another option as an anytime goalscorer and the 26-year-old winger is 9/2 to score at anytime.

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City must avoid cup hangover

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If you are a Manchester City fan you have probably only just come down from the ceiling after your dramatic FA Cup semi-final win over Manchester United. Could this mean the blue moon is finally about to rise?

If City don’t secure Champions League football it could be a false dawn and this puts a lot of importance on Monday’s match at Blackburn.

However, if you are Rovers boss Steve Kean, Easter Monday might be your last chance to save your job. Blackburn are two points outside the relegation zone and have been in freefall since Kean took over. The fans are calling for his head, but will they be singing a different tune if they cause an unlikely upset?

Life for a Blackburn fan couldn’t get much worse at the moment. They have won just three times since Sam Allardyce was given his marching orders under bizarre circumstances last December.

Alarm bells were probably tinkling in the distance when Big Sam went, given that Rovers were comfortably in mid-table and looking set for another solid season. Those bells can probably now be heard loud and clear after recent struggles. Kean has vowed not to quit but will surely have to produce a miracle if he is to hold on to his job.

His cause won’t be made any easier by losing his main goal threat, Roque Santa Cruz, who is ineligible to face City.

A potentially bigger miss for Rovers is Junior Hoilett, who has been the only bright spark in a very benign midfield in recent weeks. However, Blackburn are confident the young forward will be fit after missing the 2-0 defeat to Everton and he can be backed at 3/1 to score anytime.

Looking elsewhere for a potential Rovers goalscorer doesn’t bring much joy for punters, with the goal shy Jason Roberts, Nikola Kalinic and Benjani the other targetmen. If Hoilett doesn’t play then City to win to nil at 11/5 might be worth a look.

City’s defence stood firm against a Wayne Rooney-less United last week and in theory should have no problem against Blackburn. However, this is City and they don’t always like their trips to the less desirable parts of England.

Surely the win at Wembley will have galvanised Roberto Mancini’s squad into making that final push for a top four finish though. Tottenham are hot on City’s heels, although Saturday’s draw with West Brom has somewhat dented their European dreams. Whether City will choke like they did last season remains to be seen but for the time being they hold their destiny in their own hands.

Much like Blackburn, goals could prove to be a problem for City, with Carlos Tevez facing another three weeks on the sidelines. A lot of the responsibility will now fall on David Silva and Adam Johnson to create the opportunities – and to take them based on how poor Edin Dzeko has been since his big money move.

Whether Mario Balotelli finds the back of the net is a lottery – he showed his good and bad sides against United so you take your life in your hands by backing the fiery Italian.

City are 21/20 to win on Monday night and that seems like the bet to go for if recent form is anything to go by.

Rovers have only won one of their last seven meetings against City and are priced at 13/5 to end that long wait.

It is a must win game for both teams but on the day you’d expect the extra quality of City to shine through.

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