Who faces the basement battle?

The fight to stay in the Premier League is often more nail-biting than the battle for the title and this season looks likely to be another tight tussle for survival. We take a look at the main contenders looking to avoid the dreaded drop from the top flight……..

The three promoted teams will always be mentioned among the favourites from relegation and the 2011-12 Premier League campaign will be no different, with QPR, Norwich and Swansea expected to struggle.

Swansea (8/15 to be relegated) are the team most people would expect to face an instant return to the Championship, following their play-off success. It will undoubtedly be tough for the Swans and, despite the capture of Danny Graham and their successful attempts to keep Neil Taylor, they look short of goals and too weak at the back to have an impact.

Norwich (11/4 to finish bottom) have at least been active in the transfer market, with the decent captures of James Vaughan, Steve Morison and Bradley Johnson. But Paul Lambert is relying on a lot of untried players at the top level and that is a big gamble which is unlikely to pay off.

QPR have been quiet in the transfer market to date, with just the two confirmed captures. If the R’s (4/9 to stay up) can keep Jay Bothroyd and Kieran Dyer fit then they can give themselves a chance, but defensive reinforcements will also be needed before the end of August.

Of the current crop of established teams, Blackburn (7/2 to be relegated) look to be in the most danger with a lack of transfer activity piling more pressure on rookie boss Steve Kean. Only a last day win at Wolves kept Rovers up last season and unless they find more firepower and fill the void left by Phil Jones’ departure, they will struggle again.

Wolves (9/1 to finish bottom) will be seen by many as relegation candidates, but Mick McCarthy has been shrewd with the captures he has made so far and they may be looking more towards mid-table than the bottom three this term. Roger Johnson is the type of centre-half they needed last season and he will sure up their flimsy back four.

At lot will depend on who Wigan (2/5 to stay up) keep this summer as to how well they will do this season, but Roberto Martinez had them playing good, effective football towards the end of last term and, although they are likely to face another relegation scrap, can survive again.

Under Roy Hodgson, West Brom (7/2 to be relegated) look to be heading in the right direction although the pressure will be on the Baggies boss to build on his current squad. He’s lost keeper Scott Carson and his signings, so far, this summer have been nothing to write home about.

Bolton (11/2 to be relegated) need some squad strengthening, especially with the threat of Gary Cahill leaving, but should have enough about them to be well clear of the relegation zone. While Fulham (1/20 to stay up), under the leadership of Martin Jol, have enough quality in their ranks not to be too concerned about the threat of relegation.

One side who could be dragged into the dogfight are Newcastle (6/1 to be relegated). They are yet to sign the big name the Toon fans expect following the recent high-profile departures of Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan. Alan Pardew admits he needs at least a couple more players during the current window, in particular a 20-plus goal striker, and there is still the prospect of summer exits for the likes of Jose Enrique and Joey Barton.

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Sides gear up for basement battle

Bet on the Premier LeagueThe current two-week international break has taken the focus off the Premier League, but there will be up to 12 managers all looking ahead to next weekend when a return to hostilities will spark the eight-game run-in to what is the tightest relegation battle in the history of the league.

Trying to pick three teams who will be occupying those relegation places when the final whistle of the campaign blows on Sunday May 22 is arguably an impossible task, but one I will endeavour to try and do.

Stoke City look comfortable in mid-table but are only five points clear of the drop zone, while Newcastle and Fulham are just below them, one and two points worse off respectively.

However, I don’t envisage any of that trio to drop into the mix, while Aston Villa, who are one of four sides on 33 points and just one point clear of the bottom three, should also be safe.

Gerard Houllier’s men have been hit by talk of dressing room unrest, bust-ups between players and coaching staff, and they lost 1-0 to Wolves last time out, making it just one win in their last six league games.

But I find it difficult to believe that a team dotted with several regular England internationals cannot secure sufficient points in their final eight games, which include home dates against Stoke and Wigan.

This leaves Blackburn, Blackpool and West Brom, who are also on 33 points with Villa. Add to this West Ham and Wolves, who are both on 32 points, Birmingham on 31 and bottom side Wigan on 30.

The three to go are:

WIGAN (4/11 Relegation)

Roberto Martinez’s side boosted their chances of survival with a 2-1 win against Birmingham last time out.

However, this was only their second win in 12 league games, while they also have a significantly worse goal difference than all of their rivals which effectively makes them another point worse off.

BLACKPOOL (13/10 Relegation)

Ian Holloway’s side has been like a breath of fresh air in the Premier League and they looked all set to spend at least a second season in the top-flight after a barnstorming start.

But the wheels have come off since Christmas, with two wins in 13 outings in 2011, and their all-out attacking style is now being used against them as opposition sides hit them on the counter-attack.

They still have to play Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United, but do have winnable home dates against Wigan, Newcastle and Stoke.

But I feel the Tangerines will fall just short of salvation.

BIRMINGHAM (6/4 Relegation)

Picking the team to finish in the third and final relegation spot was extremely difficult given that West Ham and West Brom has some very tough prospects in their final eight games, while Blackburn are on a slippery slope with one win in eight which has already raised question marks about Steve Kean’s tenure at Ewood Park.

Wolves, who are one of the in-form teams with eight points from four games, have lost influential striker Kevin Doyle to a knee injury and this could hamper their survival bid.

However, those sides should just have enough to scramble home which leaves Alex McLeish’s Carling Cup winners facing the prospect of playing in the Europa League as a Championship outfit.

The Cup win against Arsenal could turn out to be a killer for the Blues as they have had a hangover ever since, with just one point from a possible 12 picked up, not to mention a myriad of first-team stars sat in the treatment room.

That has left McLeish relying on the same group of players in their recent hectic fixture schedule and it has clearly caught up with them.

First-team coach Peter Grant feels the break has come at the perfect time to get some players back but I feel they are stuck in a rut now and defeats to the likes of West Brom and Wigan in recent games will be what the fans look back on as significant in their demise if they do go down.

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