Jelavic targets golden boot

The new Premier League season is fast approaching, with less than a month to go before the battles at the top and bottom of the table are renewed.

While most people’s focus will be on the success of their team, there are those who might have one eye on individual glory as well. We examine who could pick up the biggest prize on offer to just one player – the Premier League golden boot.

As any football manager will tell you, a natural finisher can be worth his weight in gold when it comes to achieving a club’s long-term ambitions. Last season was a prime example as Robin van Persie carried Arsenal to third almost single handily. Without the Dutchman’s goals, the Gunners would have struggled to finish in the top half, let alone in a Champions League position.

Van Persie finished atop the scoring charts with 30 goals last season and is 10/1 to retain his gong this year, despite his future being up in the air as he looks to leave Arsenal. Given all the injury problems the 28-year-old has had in his career, it seems unlikely he will enjoy as prolific a season again, especially if he goes to either Manchester City or Manchester United where he will face plenty of competition.

The two Manchester clubs already have two of the best strikers in the Premier League and the co-favourites for the golden boot in Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney. Both players are priced at 8/1 to win the individual award after excellent campaigns last term. Rooney managed 27 goals for United last season, while Aguero netted 20 times in his first campaign in the Premier League. With City and United expected to be the main contenders for the Premier League title again, both players will need to have good seasons in front of goal if their respective teams are to be successful.

United and City also have some handy deputies for Aguero and Rooney, with United’s strike force featuring Javier Hernandez (20/1), Danny Welbeck (25/1) and Ashley Young (66/1). City can call upon Mario Balotelli (16/1), Carlos Tevez (14/1) and David Silva (66/1), but neither they, nor the United trio, are likely to win the golden boot.

To take that honour you need a player who the manager has either built the team around, ie Van Persie, or caters towards their style of play. While Liverpool as a team are something of an unknown quantity at this time under new boss Brendan Rodgers, you can bet Luis Suarez will figure heavily in his plans.

The Uruguay striker didn’t score as many as he should have last season due to a combination of his unsavoury antics resulting in a lengthy ban and some bad luck in front of goal. Suarez is 14/1 to win the golden boot this season and if he finds his shooting boots, might be worth an each way bet.

However, across Stanley Park, Liverpool’s rivals, Everton, surely have the best dark horse for the golden boot in Nikica Jelavic. The Croatian hitman joined from Rangers during the January transfer window and hit the ground running, ending the season with nine goals in 13 appearances.

The 26-year-old is 25/1 to finish top of the goal scoring charts this season and is surely worth a few quid given his uncanny ability to find the back of the net. With Steven Pienaar and Steven Naismith likely to be providing the ammunition, Everton and Jelavic could enjoy a good season.

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Golden Boot for Gomez?

Despite sitting out the best part of Germany’s quarter-final victory over Greece, Mario Gomez (15/8 Top Goalscorer) is still well placed to claim the Euro 2012 Golden Boot.

German coach Joachim Loew surprised many with his decision to rest his first-choice strike trio of Gomez, Thomas Mueller and Lukas Podolski for the last-eight clash in Gdansk.

However, his decision was vindicated as young replacements Marco Reus and Andre Schurrle produced eye-catching performances, while Miroslav Klose continued his excellent goalscoring record at international level. The 4-2 scoreline flattered a poor Greece outfit and there was a sense Germany had plenty left in reserve.

Gomez should return in Thursday’s semi-final against either Italy or England and have the opportunity to pull clear in the race for the Golden Boot.

Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (2/1 Top Goalscorer) moved level with Gomez on three goals with the only goal of the game against the Czech Republic to set up a semi-final clash with holders Spain.

The Real Madrid star was disappointing in the opening two games of the tournament but came alive in the crucial final Group B match against the Netherlands and carried that form into the game in Warsaw.

The former Manchester United winger hit the post in each half before finally breaking the deadlock with a powerful header in the 80th minute as Portugal held on comfortably to dump the Czechs out of the competition.

Ronaldo would arguably be the favourite to top the goalscoring chart, but for the presence of Spain in Portugal’s half of the draw. Barring a major surprise, he will have only one more game to press his case for the accolade.

Spain have three men in the frame to claim the Golden Boot. Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres have scored twice, despite limited game time, while Xabi Alonso bagged a surprise brace in Spain’s comfortable 2-0 victory over France on Saturday.

Spain coach Vicente del Bosque again decided against playing a recognised striker in Donetsk, replacing Torres with midfielder Fabregas. It is difficult to know which way the boss will go in Wednesday’s semi-final.

In that respect, Alonso (25/1 Top Goalscorer) could represent Spain’s best hope for top scorer. The former Liverpool man is not one of his country’s most forward-thinking players but has an eye for a goal and possesses an excellent long-range shot. He represents a good outside bet.

Should Gomez and Ronaldo fail to find the net again in the championship, they would share the Golden Boot with Alan Dzagoev and Mario Mandzukic, whose countries failed to reach the knockout stage.

Players from England and Italy could yet threaten the current leaders, with Wayne Rooney (25/1 Top Goalscorer) and Mario Balotelli among those on one goal with potentially three games to play.

However, it would take a big effort to overtake Gomez and Ronaldo at this stage of the competition. Gomez has the edge given his goalscoring record and Germany’s impressive form, but you can never rule Ronaldo out.

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Aguero for golden boot ?

Totesport have installed new £35m striker Sergio Aguero at 12/1 to follow in Carlos Tevez’s footsteps at Manchester City and be the Premier League Top Goalscorer 2011/12.

Aguero completed his transfer from Atletico Madrid to the big-spending Manchester club today and revealed he is relishing the new challenge of playing in the English top flight.

The Argentina hitman boasts a slightly better goalscoring ratio than the man he has been signed to replace, who shared the Premier League golden boot with Manchester United’s Dimitar Berbatov last season.

Aguero’s record of 138 goals in 320 games works out at 0.43 goals per game while Tevez (8/1), four years older than his international colleague, has scored 163 times in 390 games at 0.42 goals per game.

These statitistics come from both players’ respective careers in European football, during which Tevez spent more than half a season on the bench at Manchester United.

But they are remarkably similar when you compare their best goalscoring seasons – 27 goals in 41 games for Aguero at 0.66 goals per game during last season against 29 goals in 42 games at 0.69 goals per game during Tevez’s first season at Manchester City.

All in all 12/1 looks to be good value when you consider that there are five strikers rated as shorter prices by Totesport – including Manchester United’s Javier Hernandez (17/2) – who has just been ruled out for three weeks with concussion.

Wayne Rooney (8/1) is the current joint favourite in the market with Tevez, whose position at the Etihad Stadium appears untenable.

Fernando Torres and Robin van Persie (both 9/1) are natural goalscorers who have had injury problems in the last couple of seasons, bu who could go on long scoring runs if they get the expected service at Chelsea and Arsenal respectively.

But Liverpool’s Luis Suarez (12/1) could be the player to top them all next season if he settles into Kenny Dalglish’s new system at Liverpool.

The Uruguayan star, signed from Ajax in January, scored 49 goals in all competitions in 2009-10 and has just finished as joint-second top scorer at the Copa America.

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Who’s next for the boot?

Bet on the Premier LeagueRoy Hodgson has become the first Premier League managerial scalp of 2011, but you can bet there will be more before the end of the season.

It’s incredible to think that, in a league where Sir Alex Ferguson is into his 25th year of managing Manchester United and Arsene Wenger has been at Arsenal for 15 years, the life expectancy of a manager is so very short (Manchester United 4/6 to win the Premier League, Arsenal 10/3).

Hodgson came to Anfield as a hero, having led Fulham to the Europa League final in May. Yet in six short months he became a villain to the Liverpool supporters, who were chanting the name of Kenny Dalglish as long ago as November’s 2-0 defeat at Stoke.

Aside from Wenger and Ferguson, David Moyes is the only top flight boss to have been in the job for more than five years.

Tony Pulis at Stoke City will reach the five-year landmark before the end of this season as there is virtually no chance that the Potters will dispense of a manager who has taken them from the lower reaches of the Championship to being an established Premier League side (Stoke 20/1 for top six finish).

But who else in the Premier League can regard their position as safe these days, and who could be handed their P45 before the end of the season?

Harry Redknapp might be ruing his failure to land David Beckham on loan, but he has little else to feel bad about (Tottenham 28/1 to win the Premier League).

An excellent campaign in the Champions League and superb form in the Premier League make him just about the most secure manager there is. He has only been in charge for two years, but has made Spurs a real contender for the title as well as bringing exciting football back to White Hart Lane.

Gareth Bale has turned into one of the Premier League’s most outstanding players, while Redknapp’s signing of Rafael van der Vaart has proven to be inspired.

Moyes is closing in on nine years at Goodison Park, and while he is not under any real threat at the moment, he will be hoping to turn around the Toffees’ season (Everton 5/2 for top six finish).

Everton fans expect their team to be challenging for Europe, but they currently lie in the bottom half of the table and 10 points adrift of fifth-placed Chelsea. For many Blues fans, the only important stat is that they are currently above Liverpool in the table, although only by one place. However, the Reds have a game in hand over them and could become rejuvenated under Kenny Dalglish.

We can assume that, whatever happens between now and the end of the season, Alan Pardew is safe at Newcastle having been handed a long contract (Newcastle 11/1 for top six finish).

The same can be said for Steve Bruce at Sunderland, whose side have been a revelation this season and who are now bidding for a European place. The Black Cats are sixth in the Premier League table, just two points behind Chelsea, and if they can improve their away form – they have only won twice on the road – they have a chance of bringing European football to the Stadium of Light next term (Sunderland 7/2 for top six finish).

Owen Coyle at Bolton is secure in his job, with the Trotters seventh in the table and playing an attractive brand of football that has brought the good times back to the Reebok Stadium (Bolton 11/2 for top six finish).

Blackpool
fans expected to be fighting a relegation scrap all season long, but Ian Holloway has made them the talk of the top flight (Blackpool 2/7 to stay up).

Holloway has taken a team struggling at the wrong end of the Championship and transformed them into a mid-table Premier League side who not only win matches but do so whilst playing entertaining football. There is more chance of The Blackpool Tower collapsing than Holloway being given the boot this season.

But let’s look at those managers who are in trouble.

Chelsea would not have to fall much further before Roman Abramovich decides to pull the plug on Carlo Ancelotti’s tenure. The Blues won the title last season, scoring goals for fun, but the last couple of months have been disastrous at Stamford Bridge.

They currently sit nine points behind leaders Manchester United, having played a game more, and Ancelotti has already all but conceded defeat in the title race. Chelsea’s home form has been good – only United have won more games at home – but away from home they are very fragile and have been beaten five times.

If Chelsea make an early exit from Europe, or suffer many more defeats to lowly teams, then expect Ancelotti to be handed his cards (Chelsea 9/1 to win the Premier League).

Having come so close to European honours last season, Fulham fans cannot be happy with the way the first half of the season has gone. Mohammed Al Fayed has backed Mark Hughes publicly, but he went into the festive programme with rumours that he had to win one of his next three games.

Fulham then beat Stoke 2-0 away from home, their first win on their travels this season, but they will need more days like that for Hughes to keep his job (Fulham 7/2 to be relegated).

Birmingham’s Alex McLeish is another man who is dining out on a reputation earned last season, when the Blues were rock-solid at home. This term they have only won three of their 10 games at St Andrews, and just once away. So far they have just about kept clear of the bottom three, but if they fall any further then McLeish’s odds of being sacked will shorten (Birmingham 3/1 to be relegated).

West Brom
are no strangers to the Premier League’s drop zone, so their expectations are not high. Roberto di Matteo has put together a good squad, and the board are unlikely to make a change while the side are just about keeping their heads above water (West Brom 13/5 to be relegated).

Mick McCarthy’s side are capable of the odd shock result – take the win at Liverpool, their first away from home, as a classic example. But they have lost eight times on the road and rely too much on a home record which has seen them win five of 11 Premier League games. McCarthy is popular with Wolves supporters, but his popularity in the boardroom may be tested unless Wolves can get some breathing space between themselves and the bottom three (Wolves 8/11 to be relegated).

Gerard Houllier cannot be sleeping easily at night. Martin O’Neill may not have produced a side that was hugely entertaining, but at least they were always fighting for a place in Europe. Houllier’s side are fighting for their place in the Premier League, and the clock is ticking. Don’t expect Villa to have too much more patience with Houllier – a couple more bad results and he is surely a goner (Villa 4/1 to be relegated).

Wigan’s Roberto Martinez is a likeable guy whose side is hard working. How much more time that buys him is the key question (Wigan 3/4 to be relegated).

The Latics leak far too many goals – they have conceded 20 at home, which is four more than any other team. However, they are likely to give Martinez some cash to spend in January rather than sack him now. He must then turn their fortunes around quickly with a new-look squad or face the consequences.

Avram Grant, having battled manfully at Portsmouth at the end of last season, knows what a relegation dogfight is like and he’s been in one all season with West Ham. Every time they look like they can haul themselves clear of the bottom three, a morale-sapping defeat is just around the corner (West Ham 8/13 to be relegated).

The question now at Upton Park is will the board allow Grant to keep Scott Parker and bring in new players during the transfer window, or will a new manager be appointed and handed the cash? The odds are that Grant is only one or two defeats away from losing his job.

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Muller eyes Golden Boot

Germany youngster Thomas Muller is hungry for more goals after his brace sent England crashing out of the World Cup (Argentina’s Gonzalo Higuain is the current favourite to secure the Golden Boot).

Muller struck twice within three minutes mid-way through the second half to hand Germany an unassailable 4-1 lead and now the 20-year-old is keen to add to his goal-tally.

“Two goals in one World Cup match does not happen too often,” explained Muller.

“But now I want more. I want to score five or six goals here.”

The Germans were considered outsiders at the start of the tournament and some even questioned whether Joachim Low’s men would qualify from a group including Ghana, Australia and Serbia.

However, following their comprehensive victory over England the price on Germany winning the tournament outright has significantly shortened and Muller believes his side can go all the way (check out the World Cup winner market).

Argentina await Germany in the quarter-finals in what should be a hard-fought contest between two organised and efficient sides. The South American giants are the favourites to progress through to the semi-final stage of the competition and Muller is wary of the threat the likes of Carlos Tevez and Lionel Messi could pose his side.

Meanwhile, Miroslav Klose has suggested this could be his last World Cup despite his performances for Germany in South Africa.  The striker has an outstanding goalscoring record at international level and bagged the opener against England but at 32-years-old Klose feels it may be time to allow the younger German players the chance to compete at the highest level.

“As long as my legs carry me I will play football,” said Klose.

“But I’m very spontaneous. I would not put it past me in two or three weeks to step aside and give space to new players.”

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