Graham Hunter: Vitolo can fire Sevilla to glory at 7/1 and why Barcelona can’t afford to lose at Celta Vigo

Posted on April 3, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Sevilla v Athletic, Saturday 3pm

Spain’s ‘miracle’ team versus Spain’s manager of the month for March. Sevilla [the former] tend to find Athletic [whose manager Ernesto Valverde is the latter] pretty indigestible.The Andalusians have only won twice in the last ten meetings with the Basques home or away. However to balance that – Athletic have just one win at the Nervión in the last 20 years.

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

What makes them pretty miraculous, I think, is that only FOUR players remain at Sevilla from the last squad which beat Athletic – and that was just two years ago. They buy and sell at an extraordinary rate such that, even taking Xavi, Iniesta and Vicente Del Bosque into account Sevilla’s sports director, Monchi, is one of the great figures of the last decade in Spanish football. And despite the revolving door policy, buy ‘em short, sell ‘em long, Sevilla are the Europa League champions [again!] and face Zenit in the quarter final in two weeks time.

What’s also strange about them is that those last two victories over Athletic in the last ten meetings have come with ten men – Fernando Navarro being sent off both times. So if you are following it ‘in-play’ and Navarro’s sent off, don’t cash in, double the bet!!!!

If you fancy the red card market then be advised that there have been six sendings off in the last ten meetings between these two. Perhaps it nudges you towards Sevilla that in 14 games in charge against Athletic, the team he played for, Unai Emery has seven wins and four draws while his seven games as a direct opponent to Valverde have brought four wins and a draw.

If you like to back the mode of scoring then here’s a clue – in Athletic’s last five consecutive single-goal wins [1-0 x three, 2-1 x two] they’ve scored three headers and a penalty.

In the last six Sevilla games Unai’s team have scored six headers and two penalties. You’ve been warned.

Single goal win for the home side, both sides to score – look for Adúriz, Vitolo, Bacca, San Jose – perhaps Mbia or Krychowiak for a little bit of value.

Graham’s bet: Sevilla to win by exactly one goal @ 12/5. Vito to score first 7/1.

Bet Now on Sevilla v Athleticw

Córdoba v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

Gabi

President Carlos González is an odd fish. Last season he built a ‘time-machine’ into which Córdoba fans could file and see images of their ‘future’ in Spain’s Primera Division. Somehow or another, in the most Alfred Hitchcock fashion ever, Albert Ferrer got them to that promised land in the final seconds of the last game of the play-offs.

Suspense? ‘Hitch’ had nothing on it. Just over a handful of games later Old Carlos sacked Ferrer, texting him rather than having the ‘Cojones’ do even speak to the guy who’d taken the club up for the first time in half a century.

Now, on his third coach this season, he’s attempting to turn the remainder of his team’s matches into a mini-league of three teams. Currently bottom of the pile González argued this week.

It’s not the same finishing last as third last because, who knows, there may be some teams relegated because of their financial or administrative affairs and that could save us – you never know.

Sadly, in this country, that’s not the most bizarre idea so it’s an attempt to ‘buck up’ spirits ahead of the visit of the Champions.

His idea, clearly, is for Córdoba to claw and tear every point from their remaining opponents, not with much hope of finishing outside the bottom three – but in case anyone else is demoted for non-football reasons. Harder for them in that they had three sent off last time out, Aleksandar Pantic, Íñigo López and Daniel Pinillos, while the excellent Fede Vico plus Iago Bouzón remain injured.

They do have Nabil Ghilas, Edimar and José Ángel Crespo, fit again while, Fausto Rossi, one of the naughty boys [with Bebé and Ghilas] caught out on the bevvy after losing to Valencia, is allowed back into the squad. Ghilas is the goal threat.

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But Atleti will fight still-harder to ensure that they don’t finish in fourth place at the end of the season while they also need to get back in character ahead of the Champions League quarter final against Madrid in a fortnight. Diego Simeone (above) has renewed his contract which will inspire all around him except Mandzukic, you’d guess.

No Miranda, still suspended, so Godín and Giménez at the back. Griezmann, by all accounts flying in training and full of confidence after being with the French team. In fact with Moyá and Raúl García injured take it that Atleti will be: Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Gabi, Tiago; Saúl, Griezmann, Koke; Mandzukic.

Trust in Atleti, trust in Griezmann, think about Saúl for value.

Graham’s bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2/5. Antione Griezmann to score first @ 7/2

Bet Now on Cordoba v Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid v Granada, Sunday 11am

Carlo Ancelotti840

Vicente Del Bosque was a promising young midfield substitute the last time Granada won at the Bernabéu. And this season’s seven out of a possible 42 away points indicates that Abel Resino, historically an Atlético Madrid man, is in search of some sort of divine intervention. Sadly for him the kick-off is midday [Spanish clock] on Sunday when the big man upstairs may be pretty occupied with his dayjob.

You have to like old Abel, who knows that it’ll need a daft combination of circumstances is his team is to prove able.

Granada’s boss reckons:

I’m hoping the ‘FIFA’ virus hits Madrid. I hope they’ve arrived back tired after the international matches, that they think this is going to be a piece of cake.This is a Madrid which can scare you if they are inspired, but also one which has been pretty irregular in 2015, one which their own fans might be a little frustrated at…

Cristiano Ronaldo

Pepe’s out injured for Madrid but, really, they must turn this into a ‘by how many….?’ match.

Barcelona play at Celta later that night and Los Blancos, having just lost the Clásico, can cut the gap at the top to a point ahead of that kick off in Vigo. They can put real pressure on. Granada don’t know what the connection between the ball and the net is – it’s that sad, that simple. Only four of the squad have two goals or more and Jhon Córdoba and Youssef Al-Arabi are tied as top scorers on four. If you insist on picking a Granada any-time scorer then Robert Ibáñez is a tidy wide player picked up on loan from Valencia.

But this will see Madrid’s attacking forces very nearly at full strength. James Rodríguez is back and should start given Isco is suspended. Gareth Bale should have scored in the Clásico, did so for Wales and has looked bristling with confidence again in training. He’s worth a punt. Madrid should win by three and it wouldn’t be a shock if the BBC, [Bale, Benzema, Cristiano] all got a taste here.

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win -2 on the handicap @ 8/13

Bet Now on Real Madrid v Granada

Valencia v Villarreal, Sunday 4pm

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

This is a little gem of a contest. Valencia is a city which already has a derby match. It’s Los Che against Levante. Villarreal is an hour north up the coast … but sufficient bad blood has developed over the [recent] years to give this the edge of a derby. In the eight years since the Yellow Submarine won at the Mestalla [Manuel Pellegrini’s team facing 9 men when David Villa and Joaquín were sent off and taking advantage via Santi Cazorla, Giuseppe Rossi and Jon Dahl Tomasson] Valencia have been firmly in control of this fixture. Four wins and a draw, fifteen goals in favour of Los Che.

Right now Valencia are a force at home – best record in la Liga. The stadium won’t only be about 95 per cent full, it’ll be raucous, confident, aggressive – and it’ll drive Nuno’s players through any residual tiredness some have from their international duties.

Drawing conclusions from training there’s a decent chance, with Enzo Pérez injured, that he’ll repeat the XI which beat Elche away 4-0 two weeks ago. That would mean no place for Álvaro Negredo in a lineup: Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá: Parejo, Fuego, Gomes: Feghouli, Alcácer, Piatti.

Piatti, little buzzbomb that he is, is in the form of his life. Seven goals, equal with centre forward Alcácer, but also wonderful delivery. His dead-ball work is part of the reason Mustafi and Otamendi, central defenders, have seven goals between them. The German got two last time these sides met and either one of them plus Piatti or Alcácer are worth backing.

Juan-Carlos-Villarreal

Villarreal have, at least, had time to re-group after their horrible denuding at the hands of Sevilla. Three games, three defeats, out of Europe, seven goals conceded. Marcelino has a great record of making his team’s super fit, he’s a good motivator and he’s had two clear weeks with the majority of his squad [seven international players left, all came back uninjured] yet he has problems to face here.

Possibly enough to determine the result. Bruno, what a loss, is far off a return while Cheryshev, who’s added pace, aggression and goals, is also injured. Moi Gómez is suspended and Víctor Ruiz is a victim of the ‘fear clause’ in that he’s on loan from Valencia who won’t let him play against them.

With the loss of Gabriel to Arsenal that means that five of the ten players with the most Liga minutes for Villarreal this season will be absent at the Mestalla. Vietto is always worth backing, Musacchio is looking a set piece threat again but this should be a home win. Both teams to score.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win & both teams to score @ 11/4

Bet Now on this result

Celta Vigo v Barcelona, Sunday 8pm

Luis Suarez

This could be a bit of fun. You know better than I do that football loves, absolutely loves, a back-story. Celta is where Luis Enrique (above) restored his budding reputation after disappointment and under-achievement at Roma. But he left, following his heart [not to mention his bank-account] after just a year to take over at Barcelona.

Already anyone who knows football is saying: ‘Intriguing, tell me more….’ For a shock it would need something beyond a neat storyline of Toto Berizzo and his players agreeing: ‘Right, we’ll show him!’ Therefore you can throw into the mix the fact that Barcelona will be without Javier Mascherano, suspended, Jordi Alba injured, and until we see how he handles the night [if risked at all] there’s the real prospect of this being a match that Leo Messi should avoid.

Badly damaged by a Martin Demichelis tackle nearly three weeks ago, Messi’s right outstep took another knock during the Clásico and, as a result, his foot was so swollen he couldn’t put on football boots while away on duty with Argentina – let alone play for Tata Martino’s side.

Should he really be risked here with the Champions League quarter final approaching and an away league match at Sevilla next Saturday to deal with first?? Just a little frisson of ‘extra’ is the fact that, back in November, Celta were the first team to beat ‘Lucho’s’ Barcelona at the Camp Nou. A clever, organised, counter-attack performance. They’ll need the same. Although their best player, Nolito [ex- Barça] reckons: “we’ll go toe-to-toe with them” that’s not advisable. High tempo, pressing – yes. Taking them on at football – big problems.

But another voice of experience, Andreu Fontas, also from the Barcelona youth system, reckons they’ve got the drop on his former club.

After a series of games like City in the Champions League, Madrid in the Clásico and then lots of their players away on international duty it can take a lot out of the squad psychologically so I don’t think this is a bad time at all to be playing Barça.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

If you routinely punt on Messi to score best to leave it until the lineup is out. It’s vital for Barcelona to win this if they want to be champions so even if it shapes as a bit of a test look to Suárez, who has not had international duty, and Piqué, who’s in love with scoring goals this season, as potential ‘any-time’ scorers.

Nolito has three goals and two assists in his last eight Liga matches and shares Celta’s scoring-burden with Charles and Larrivey. This could easily be both teams to score and there’s the whiff of an upset. Be guided by your overall view of the away team. If they are to win the title they mustn’t lose here, indeed by hook or by crook they probably have to win.

PS cynics may note that it’s the same ref as Barça 0-1 Celta. But he was good that day and has twice been generous to the away side since. Inexperienced but not a ‘Celta man’.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona to win and both teams to score @ 6/4

Bet Now on Barcelona to win & both teams to score

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: A 4/1 shot that could make the Barcelona v Celta Vigo game more interesting this weekend

Posted on January 19, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Granada v Real Madrid, Saturday 3pm

Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.

However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.

Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.

It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.

Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”

Madrid have 11 different scorers this season. Ronaldo’s scored more on his own than most decent teams have this term and the tale of the tape reads: Madrid – Scored 33, Granada – Scored 6.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.

Granada 12/1, Real Madrid 2/9, Draw 5/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético Madrid v Córdoba – Saturday 5pm

Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.

You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.

Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.

Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.

Atleti are being branded ‘violent’ and the fact that 90% + of their goals come from set plays is being mocked and diminished as an achievement. That, too, will fuel their anger.

Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.

Atletico Madrid 1/5, Cordoba 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Barcelona v Celta Vigo – Saturday 7pm

The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.

Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.

Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.

For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’

It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.

For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.

After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.

Nolito got 14 in 35 last season, he has five in nine this term and Spain’s assistant manager Toni Grande recently admitted that he and Vicente del Bosque are tempted to pick him for the national team when it faces World Champions Germany in Vigo in a couple of weeks’ time.

“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”

No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?

Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.

Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla – Sunday 11am

Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.

Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.

What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.

The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.

Here’s the rub.

Athletic have had a miserable term and their 1-0 win at Almeria last week was their first three-pointer since August. They’ve only scored six while in midweek Sevilla put out a second XI in the Copa and thrashed Sabadell 6-1 away.

Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.

Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.

Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal v Valencia – Sunday 4pm

Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.

Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.

Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.

Otamendi, Paco Alcàcer, Dani Parejo and Mustafi all have headed goals for Los Che this season.

Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.

Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile