Real Madrid can get the job done in Cyprus to shatter any hope APEOL have of causing the biggest upset in the club’s history – and travel-sick Chelsea face another awkward test on the road against Benfica as the quarter-finals of the Champions League get underway on Tuesday.
APOEL v Real Madrid
Much has been made of surprise package APOEL’s remarkable run to the last eight of Europe’s marquee club competition but it is difficult to envisage the fairytale continuing at the expense of nine-time European winners Real Madrid.
True, the Cypriot minnows have won five of their seven home games in this season’s competition but Jose Mourinho’s expensively assembled La Liga title-chasers are simply a class apart.
The wily Portuguese coach also has enough senior professionals in his ranks to deal with the much-heralded reception likely to face Spain’s capital club at the intimidating 23,000-capacity GSP Stadium in Nicosia.
It is without question the biggest game in APOEL’s history but one questions whether the Cypriots could get caught up in a bit of shirt swapping and star gazing rather than the job in hand.
“We’ve done something exceptional, something that can never happen again,” said APOEL president Phivos Erotokritou.
Real Madrid have won seven of their eight games in this season’s Champions League and are priced accordingly at 2/7 (APOEL 10/1, draw 9/2 – 90 minutes) but it may pay to avoid any exotic scorelines.
One option would be to split stakes on a 1-0 and 2-0 job done-type outcome given that Real have only conceded one goal in four European away trips this season, while Under 2.5 goals is quoted at a not-too-shabby price of 6/5.
In-form striker Cristiano Ronaldo has registered five goals in his last four European matches and at the weekend smashed the 100-goal personal milestone for the club. The Portuguese superstar can be backed at 9/4 in the first and last goalscorer markets.
Benfica v Chelsea
Benfica have won 11 of their last 12 games at the Stadium of Light and can book a place in the semi-finals for the first time in 22 years to send England’s last representatives packing.
Compare that statistic to Chelsea’s overall away form – the west Londoners have won only one of their last six away games, against Birmingham in the FA Cup – and it is hard to make a case for the Blues at 2/1 (Benfica 11/8, draw 23/10 – 90 minutes).
On the road in Europe and the omens looks even worse given that Chelsea have not triumphed away from Stamford Bridge since a 2-0 win against Copenhagen over a year ago.
Much was made of the manner in which Roberto Di Matteo’s men overturned a first-leg deficit against Napoli to get this far, but everything went for them on the night and, let’s not forget, they still conceded.
A drab goalless draw against Tottenham at the weekend proved a fixture to forget and served as a reminder that their problems remain in attack.
Benfica have kept three clean sheets in six games on home soil in Europe this season and the ‘to win to nil’ option is available at 11/4.
They have been ahead in four out of those six games by half-time and can be backed at 3/1 in the Benfica/Benfica half-time full-time market.
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The international year comes to an end on Tuesday night when England welcome Sweden to Wembley for what will be the last game before the build-up to Euro 2012 really begins. Having beaten Spain on Saturday, England’s players will be confident but would do well not to underestimate the Swedes (9/2, England 4/6, draw 13/5).