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There’s only one game on everyone’s lips this weekend in Spain as the top two go head to head at the Camp Nou. At the bottom Las Palmas and Levante will both leap out of the relegation zone with victories over Celta Vigo and Sevilla respectively. Elsewhere Gary Neville STILL needs his first La Liga win
People have been looking forward to this clash for weeks, simply because we’ll know on Sunday whether Atleti will have the quality to keep pace at the top as they try to wrestle back the La Liga title off of Barcelona. Their record against the Catalonians is not good however, just one win in 14 attempts and no goal for Antoine Griezmann in five appearances against Barca. They’ve only conceded three goals away from home all year however. But I don’t think they’ll have enough. Back Suarez to score at and a home win at
I know I’ve tipped Gary Neville to get his first La Liga win the last couple of times, but I’m certain that this week it’s happening. Sporting are second to last, they’ve lost eight of their eleven away games. But after losing 5-1 to Real two weeks ago, they came out and destroyed Sociedad by the same scoreline. My tip is to back the in play. If Valencia score first, they’ll win at. If they don’t back the score draw. Gijon’s best hope for a goal is Sanabria at to open the scoring
Espanyol actually have a decent record in the Bernebau. Despite losing heavily on many an occasion, they’ve been able to grab a draw against the Galacticos twice over the last four seasons. But they haven’t won in almost a decade, and were beaten 6-0 at home by Real earlier in the season. Zidane’s Madrid have been scoring for fun, and the handicap of Real -3 is too good not to take on this occasion, especially when you take into account the extent of Espanyol’s injuries. They’re missing six first team players.
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On paper this is a match that the reigning Spanish and European champions should lose or draw [On paper people!]
Let’s take track record. Thirty times in the last 25 years Barcelona have played Atletico away from home: 15 defeats, six draws only nine wins. Of those nine wins the vast majority have come since the Pep Guardiola-Leo Messi era began.
In other words, prior to this club’s re-birth with the brand of football which is now irrevocably associated with Barça and prior to the explosion of Messi as an all-time great, the Catalans almost always lost this fixture.
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Playing Atleti away is a thorny, bruising business. Many teams end up looking like a ballet dancer trying to get to the bar for a campari ahead of sixteen lock-forward All-Blacks desperate for a beer.
More, the torrent of wins in the last seven years have only come when Barça are fit, confident, full of high tempo passing and defensively sound.
Usually the very best Barça take away is a single goal win. Not always, but predominantly.
So why should Saturday afternoon in the Calderón [literally the Cauldron!] be different.
Firstly, I don’t think that it’s impossible that Barcelona either draw or win. But here’s why Atleti should start favourites.
The champions take the pitch without Claudio Bravo, Gerard Piqué and Dani Alves.
The Champions can no longer call on the experience of Xavi and Pedro in this most thorny, boiling hot of matches. [NB one or other of the two played some minutes in each of Barcleona’s four wins over Atleti last season and Pedro gave Messi the assist for the 1-0 win in the last meeting which clinched the title for Luis Enrique’s side]
Do you consider absences like this small details?
Perhaps you do. Then bet against my guide.
But let’s add something else.
Barcelona, with the exception of the European Supercup, haven’t been tucking their chances away with the normal deadly efficiency this season. In losing the Spanish Supercup people focused on Athletic thumping them at San Mames and drawing in the Camp Nou.
Yet Barcelona should, conservatively, have scored six times across those two games.
In winning 1-0 against Athletic and Málaga fewer chances were squandered, defensive rigour, stamina and speed of passing were restored but it’s still the case that the champions haven’t been hitting ramming speed.
Ter Stegen is a fine keeper but his pre-season has been bumpy, he conceded eight times in the two competitive games he played and this will be, remarkably enough, his La Liga debut.
He’s capable of excelling and repelling Atleti if it’s his day.
Good keeper, exceptional as a sweeper-keeper. But bang at the top of his game? Perhaps not quite.
The final element to take into account if you are going to back Barcelona for what would be a monumentally important and impressive away win concerns the strikers.
The ‘Trident‘ is what truly sets Barcelona far apart from the madding crowd around Europe.
I don’t need to explain or promote their brilliance here. But both Neymar and Messi will be suffering the physical and mental tiredness of jet-lag after what Spain calls the ‘Fifa-virus’ [as will Mascherano at the back] while Luis Suárez will be free of that.
But Suárez needs games.
He thrives on three games a week and often just loses a knife-edge of deadly clinical finishing when he’s deprived of competitive football – as he has been now for a fortnight.
Again, could he buck that trend and score/make?
Yes, certainly.
And, pound for pound, Messi’s 23 goals in 26 meetings with Atleti is probably his most impressive domestic performance.
But are they right at their sharpest?
Atleti? Likely to be Oblak: Juanfran, Jimenez, Godín, Felipe: Gabi, Koke, Oliver, Tiago: Griezmann, Torres/Jackson
Barça? Likely Stegen, Sergi Roberto, Vermaelen, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Neymar, Suárez, Messi.
Griezmann didn’t score in four defeats to Barcelona last season but with La Real had both a decent scoring and winning record. He’s on fire right now.
An obvious ‘anytime’ scorer bet at 9/5.
So is Messi but maybe there’s a dark horse in Rakitic. He loves the big games – not only the Champions League final v Juve but goals v Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Porto, Bayern as well as three v Atletico across his career.
Finally, Barcelona were excelled at defending the ball into the box last season but have been weak in pre-season and their regular games so far. And with Piqué missing, plus Stegen’s tendency to come for something and not be a stone-cold certainty to get there then Atleti’s Godín, Torres or Giménez might reward you with a header.
Score draw anyone?
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“This is a banana-skin game,” Carlo Ancelotti said on Friday morning. With a straight face.
Well, frankly, you’re as likely to hear the Banana-splits theme played by the London Philharmonic Orchestra, conducted by Mr and Mrs Harmonic’s son Phil before you are likely to see Eibar winning at the Bernabéu.
Yes, yes. It’s not hard to understand Carlito’s intention. The European champions were duffed-up in the first half at Rayo Vallecano in midweek, they have no margin of error here and they’ll be without the excellence of James Rodríguez, the order of Toni Kroos and the returning goal-power of Gareth Bale.
So, fine, avoiding complacency by warning about the threat Eibar carry, that’s okay.
But even though Eibar’s coach Gaizka Garitano was singing from the same song-sheet [‘One banana, two banana, three banana four…tra la la, tra la, la, la…] when he said this week: “People think we are dead and buried but there’s a lot of life left in us”, this isn’t the weekend they can be permitted to show that’s true.
Prior to beating Málaga on Tuesday the Basques had not won since January 10, at home to Getafe, and failed to scored in seven of 10 games. That tells a story. It may not be the greatest story ever told, but Easter’s past now.
What’s true, and has been for a couple of weeks, is that Garitano’s team is playing better. Making chances, making it worth watching them because they are pleasing to the eye.
Next best? Saúl Berjon – nice wee player.
Los Blancos aren’t yet on full ramming speed, will miss James in particular because he’s added cutting edge and verticality in their play since returning.
Also, they have the Madrid derby in the Champions League on Tuesday. However what showed in midweek is that if their silk glove is a bit tatty, their iron fist is in punching mode.
Watching them react, so powerfully, to the nonsense of Ronaldo being denied the most blatant of penalties at Rayo indicated that there is ferocity of spirit and an intent to win this title.
They should have a far harder afternoon than a week ago when hitting nine against Granada but they can be backed.
“We don’t care if Ronaldo’s had his yellow card rescinded and is free to play,” said the Eibar President Friday afternoon. Wrong!
Back CR7 to score, again, back Benzema, back Isco and, have a flutter on Ramos.
It’s just not practical to take a disparaging tone of voice when speaking about a match at La Rosaleda – even after Javi Gracia’s team lost a bit of steam in recent weeks.
Málaga can play, have individuals who’ll produce clever moments, the crowd is usually numerous and boisterous. [This match is sold-out]. So it’s a trap for the unwary.
However, the instinct to back an upset here, which would have been tempting during the earlier part of Atleti’s bumpy 2015, has diminished a bit.
Diego Simeone’s team went through a spell where they looked leg-weary, psychologically bruised and just a tad vulnerable to energy, organisation and ambition. All of which Málaga have been capable of providing this term.
But Los Rojiblancos can evidently see the finishing tape now, clearly.
It’s like the combined effect of knowing that their guru, their Pied Piper [What do you mean ‘who’? Simeon,e of course!] has renewed his contract and will stay next season plus the knowledge that they are edging towards guaranteeing Champions League football while playing the quarter final of that competition against a team they’ve beaten four times since August has injected pure adrenaline in their veins.
Keeper Miguel Ángel Moyá is back from injury, so is Diego Godín, while Juanfran has served his suspension. Mandzukic and Raúl García are both still injured.
The negative about the home side is that their three recent defeats, and a draw in the last five games, have been against sides lower than them in the table – Granada, Rayo, Eibar and Real Sociedad.
On the positive side, Gracia was without two significant players when losing at Eibar in midweek – Samu Castilejo and Sergio Sánchez. They return while Sergi Darder, a doubt, makes the squad. Gracia will choose from: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Ricardo Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Miguel Torres, Samu Castillejo, Sergi Darder.
Back to bananas, there’s a slip-up threat here but back Atleti, just.
NB: Fernando Torres has five in eight against Málaga; Griezmann has three in eight.
NB1: Don’t look for a goal feast. In only FOUR of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs have both teams scored. Prior to this season the last three games produced only three goals
NB2: have a think about Godín anytime. Each of Málaga’s last two defeats have been 0-1 to back-post headers.
In life, which do you believe in more? The immovable object or the irresistible force?
Sevilla haven’t lost at home for over a year – since their city neighbours Betis won at the Nervión.
Thirty-one matches in League, Europe and Cup. Immovable.
Barça, in contrast, have won 10 straight away matches, no mean feat, since losing at the Anoeta in their first match of 2015. Irresistible?
The league-leaders carry some baggage to Andalusia – and not just the shadow of Wednesday’s Champions League quarter final in Paris.
Good though he was against Almería during the week, Messi still appears to be protecting his right outstep where he’s felt pain since the Manchester City game at the Camp Nou.
Neymar, dropped in midweek, is out of form and has been for weeks.
Contract talks with Dani Alves have broken down and his agent [also his ex-wife] stated that some of his defensive lapses recently owe to his mental state caused by uncertainty over his playing future. [He’s out of contract in June]. Way to impress the coach Mrs A.
But we have to take into account the fact that not since Alves scored the winner for Sevilla in this fixture back in 2007 have Barça lost here.
Seven wins and two draws in their last nine visits.
Unai Emery just doesn’t have a happy record against them either – wherever he’s been he’s found it super-hard, either in adversity or when on top in a game, to emerge with a win.
Bacca, having been rested at Levante, will start and is the best bet. Sevilla are pretty interesting aerially and while Barcelona have improved, radically, when defending set-plays they are by no means invulnerable. Mbia is fit and loves to score a header.
Barcelona are not on high form but have a really grim determination about them these days. For that, for Messi and for their eight year record in Sevilla they’ll start favourites.
But if you back a score draw you’ll not be alone.
Football is remarkable. Valencia have beaten both the Spanish and European champions this season, have a new, wealthy owner, brim with good new players, the crowds have been huge and vibrant … but they’ll enter the city derby with nerves.
Levante have been fighting relegation all season, are on their second coach this term and lost at home in midweek but there’s a genuine sense that they are both robust and capable of staying up.
But, Frank Carson-stylee, there’s more.
Levante, pretty remarkably, have three wins and two draws in their last six Valencia derbies. Given the relative resources and squad-calibre that’s a standout achievement.
One of the defeats of Valencia was this season – one of only two wins in their first ten home matches. Some kids.
And more. Nuno Espirito Santo may have been looking for the gypsy who’s thrown a curse or whoever on his staff broke a couple of mirrors.
Last week they played a weakened Villarreal side, one which went on to be pumped 0-3 at home by Espanyol in their next match, but Los Che squandered chances, played without enough zest and dropped two points. Major chance missed
Then, away at Athletic, they had Otamendi wrongly sent off and, winning 0-1, dropped two more points in the final seconds when Aduriz scored from a blatantly offside position.
Suddenly they are not only not third but they’ve gifted Atleti a three point lead.
Okay, Levante like facing Valencia. They absolutely require points for survival but Los Che have just three more home games after this one and, by hook or by crook, they simply have to win. On balance, just, it’s worth backing them to do that.
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Madrid have been jeered by their own fans when Depor came to town before, albeit not often.
That was the infamous Copa Del Rey final when the original cast of the Galácticos were gifted the right to play the showpiece match at their own stadium, the Santiago Bernabéu, back in March 2002 because the 6th was their 100th birthday.
Depor came to town, wrapped up the final with very little trouble, 2-1, and the shock rocked Spanish football helping cost Vicente Del Bosque his job just over a year later.
This time the jeering and whistling will come in the form of a retrospective reprimand from the ‘hawkish’ Bernabéu
Losing, pathetically, at Atlético last week was sore enough for the fans.
But the spectacle played out over the last few days in the media as first photos and then a video from Cristiano Ronaldo’s birthday party on that Saturday night has corroded a lot of built-up goodwill between the team, Ronaldo and the fans.
Not a single Spaniard from the squad, nor Bale, Benzema, Varane, Chicharito or Kroos attended. But, as Ronaldo danced and sang with his Colombian pop-star pal, Pepe, Marcelo, Coentrao, Keylor, Khedira and James were present so you can count on hard-line Madridistas being outraged. And letting the team know it.
Since losing eight goals at home to Madrid in September the following 19 games have shown Victor Fernández‘ long-standing managerial ability.
Depor have only won five but they’ve also drawn five and the fact that they’ve kept eight clean sheets in that time has meant they’ve gone from a low of last place to 11th today – five points off the relegation zone.
I suppose the very concept of a ‘shock’ result implies one it’s hard to see coming. So, a shock here?
Madrid out-of-form, missing key footballers in front of a skeptical, angry audience. Depor, a bit more sturdy but significantly short of the class that ‘holds out’ for 90 minutes at a venue like this.
If ever the modern, debilitated Depor had even a sniff of that shock then this is it.
But it’s too hard to believe in. Perhaps Madrid will look stodgy, perhaps Depor can frustrate.
However Ancelotti’s team simply CANNOT afford to do anything other than win here or the heavens will fall on their heads. Pablo Insua is suspended, Sidnei injured, José Rodríguez ineligible thanks to the terms of his loan from Madrid.
If you reckon they’ll score, look to Cavaleiro or Oriol Riera for Depor. But unless the home team win by two or three there’ll be hell to pay. Madrid will be: Casillas; Arbeloa, Nacho, Varane, Marcelo; Isco, Illarramendi, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo
Perm from Benzema, Kroos, Isco and the out of form Ronaldo. Marcelo is back from suspension but Pepe, Modric,Coentrão, Khedira Ramos and James remain out, injured or are seeking fitness.
Back to beginnings.
Quique Sanchez Flores was not only an aggressive right back for Valencia for nearly 300 games in the 1980’s it was in his single previous season at Getafe coach that he did well enough to earn his shot at coaching Valencia.
That was when Los Che were reigning champions [04/05] and QSF had just been pinched, by Madrid-based Getafe, from the Real Madrid youth coaching system.
His Getafe beat the title-holders [then coached by Claudio Ranieri] at the Coliseum and lost 3-1 at the Mestalla but he’d done enough to inherit when Valencia got shot of the Tinkerman.
QSF only lasted two and a bit seasons but he did precisely what is now demanded of Nuno Espirito Santo – qualify for the Champions League.
Old Quique has football in every corpuscle.
He shares a birthday with Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Carlos Tevez, his dad, Isidro, was a repeat trophy winner with Real Madrid, his Godfather was Alfredo Di Stéfano while he himself won the title with Los Blancos and went to Italia 90 in the Spain squad.
But he’ll be doing damn well to repeat Getafe’s 3-1 win at Valencia last season. They’ve only played at the Mestalla ten times in the league -eight defeats, that one win and a draw.
It’s a sign of the changing times at the Mestalla that only two Valencia players from that rarest of rare defeats last season will start on Sunday [Barragán and Parejo].
Nuno doesn’t fancy the lunchtime kick-off [midday here in Spain] so he fixed a closed-doors friendly against Zenit on Thursday at midday just to practice the ‘feeling’.
Valencia won 1-0 [Parejo scored again] and it looks like they’ll start Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá; Enzo, Fuego; Piatti, Parejo, Rodrigo DP; Negredo.
Geta did Valencia a huge favour last week, beating Sevilla, I’d expect them to repeat the good feeling this week by losing here.
None of those who’s goals won the first meeting this season [0-3 Valencia] will start: Alcácer, Rodrigo Moreno and André Gomes.
Parejo can’t stop scoring [already the highest total of his career], Negredo owes his boss a goal, Gayá, who’s fllying, is a wee ‘outside’ bet.
Álvaro is QSF’s repeat scorer. Five straight wins at home for Valencia in all comps since November, Getafe’s last Liga away win was in October. Back the home team by two.
Their main striker, David Barral, scores a hat-trick as often as Jose Mourinho admits: ‘You’re right, I was out of order’.
So it’d be nice to try and play-up Levante’s chances.
But I’m not sure that’s realistic. Since losing to Real Sociedad on January 4 Barcelona have played ten, won ten and scored 37.
There are patches of play where they are as electrically quick, as intuitive and as confident as at any time since the peak of the Pep Guardiola era. Not all the time, but regularly.
This season their La Liga goal-ratio is 62:13; historically they’ve played Levante eleven times at the Camp Nou, winning eleven and scoring 41.
So unless something seismic is about to happen let’s assume a home win …okay?
Perhaps the art is in determining the margin. Neymar’s rate of goals since losing at the Anoeta is nine in nine matches – but the last three games have seen him fluff really gaping chances, including a penalty against Villarreal in midweek. So do you back his goal-a-game record or feel critical because he’s not been properly clinical?
Messi should get 2+ goals here but thinking about Pedro, Xavi, Rafinha or Rakitic might bear fruit here because Luis Enrique will certainly try to rotate his first-choice XI throughout the match.
As for Suárez he continues unchanged. Exceptional in his team play, bursting with assists but finishing less ruthlessly than he’d like. Barcelona’s most regular score at home to Levante is 5 – perhaps they’ll have to settle for a slightly less impressive result this time?
Suárez, Messi, Pedro and Barral.
Talk about some sort of curse. It’s not opening the Tomb of Tutankhamun, or running amok with a jack-hammer in a mirror factory.
But Joaquin Larrivey did his karma some sort of damage when he scored Celta Vigo’s first La Liga winner at the Camp Nou since World War II.
Prior to that historic night last Autumn the big Argentinian had seven goal in ten league games. Rocket-fuelled.
Since then, not one in 649 minutes and ten games. Three and a half horrible months.
Last season he scored against Atleti for Rayo and quite fancies a return date.
“I’m not sure if it’s true to say that I ‘miss’ the glory of scoring so long as the team wins but I’m hungry to start again and it’s a good battle against Godín and Miranda. “They are aggressive, tough and keep their concentration high for the whole game. “It’d be a great way to start another run of goals getting one against them this weekend”.
And he might be worth a look. Atleti are without Koke [injured], Raúl García and Arda Turan. Interestingly, for a centre half, tough-as-teak Godín will play with a broken nose, using a plastic ‘Phantom’ mask.
RT @diegogodin: Recién estrenando mi máscara. Ya pude entrenar y probarla pensando en el domingo. pic.twitter.com/fvJ065dJwk
— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) February 11, 2015
Can he be as effective, as fearless in every challenge?? Saúl, despite injuring his knee while making the third goal last week, should be good to start. So Cholo Better Call …. oh, you got there already…
Meanwhile El Cholo Simeone has been practicing this week with Mandzukic, Griezmann and Fernando Torres up front.
A statement of intent.
Celta, remarkably, haven’t won at home to Atleti since 2005 – losing 0-1. 1-3 [twice] and 0-2 in the four games since.
Those two sides shared four goals in the first meeting of the season and a result of that order doesn’t look impossible now that Celta, if not Larrivey, have remembered how to score the odd goal.
Look for Torres, Griezmann, Larrivay and Nolito as likely scorers. Good betting.
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Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.
However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.
Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.
It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.
Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”
You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.
Granada 12/1, Real Madrid 2/9, Draw 5/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.
You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.
Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.
Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.
Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.
Atletico Madrid 1/5, Cordoba 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.
Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.
But then there’s the ‘Football, bloody hell!’ factor (© Alex Ferguson)
Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.
For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’
It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.
For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.
After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.
“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”
No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?
Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.
Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.
Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.
What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.
The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.
Here’s the rub.
Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.
Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.
Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.
Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.
Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.
Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.
Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
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Like the seasick passenger on a cruise liner who has accidentally swallowed too many laxatives, Elche are in trouble at both ends.
Their 27 goals conceded make them the second most defensively incontinent side in La Liga – and they’ve only scored 12 times in 13 matches.
At the Martínez Valero, where they are La Liga’s ninth best supported club with an average of over 22,000 fans turning up to back them, it’s been torture – in six home matches this season they’ve only led once.
But there’s a stand-out. Up front they have the physically imposing, terrifically quick Jonathas.
El gol de Jonathas logra que se repartan los puntos… #elchecf #cordobacf #franjiverdes pic.twitter.com/uuxoa6gsDt
— Claudia Ropero (@ClaudiaRopero) November 24, 2014
He’ll be 26 in March and perhaps at this age he’s not going to be absolutely top, top class. But the Brazilian is a handful and to score six in 12 in this team [three in his last two home games] is no small achievement.
Coach Fran Escribá doesn’t need the added problem of one of his other stand-out players, David Lombán, suffering family problems which have prevented him training this week and hint that he might not play against the champions. A full-on competitor at centre-half he’s also author of a couple of Elche’s other goals.
Tipped Griezmann to get us a goal last weekend but he saved it until the midweek Copa win over Hospitalet – merci pour rien mon brave!
That said, his form is good and his only Liga hat-trick so far was for Real Sociedad against Elche last season. A pair of 2-0 wins for Atleti against this mob while winning the title, a couple of penalties awarded to them in those games – a win, a two-goal margin and, in all likelihood, another successful set-piece for Cholo Simeone’s team this weekend (Atleti -1.0 at 17/10).
Perhaps this is where we get another hint about who’ll win the title. The Galicians have taken a draw and a win away from visits to Atlético and Barcelona already this season – but profile as much, much longer odds to escape without a doing here.
Okay, before I get bullish here’s the cautionary note. Of Celta’s last seven league visits to the daunting Bernabéu [admittedly dating back to 2001] they’ve only lost three. The other results include 1-2 and 2-3 wins plus a pair of 1-1 draws. Moreover, coached by Luis Enrique,
Celta beat los Blancos 2-0 up at the Balaidos last season in a result which confirmed that Madrid couldn’t win the title, thus robbing them of the first treble in their history. Put all of those factors together and no way Celta look like mugs here. But they are in the middle of a vertigo attack, poor dears.
Having won 1-0 at the Camp Nou on the first day of November they’ve not scored a league goal since, they’ve taken a single point, against lowly Granada, losing to Rayo and Eibar. It was Toto Berizzo’s front three which was separating Celta from the pack – at least while they were scoring. Nolito hasn’t got one since mid October, Joaquin Larrivey hasn’t scored since that Camp Nou goal and Fabián Orellana is the most culpable.
This assist from Javier Hernandez last night is blindingly good…https://t.co/xQjIF32LeL — Alex Richards (@AA_Richards) December 3, 2014
No net-bulging since mid September. Albeit using an experimental XI, that run of form hit its logical conclusion in the cup this week with a poor defeat away to second division leaders Las Palmas.
Away from the surface-glare the play has shaded just a touch.
Toni Kroos (above, for Germany) was rested for the cup game and won’t play midweek against Ludogorets because his systems are on overload [aka knackered] – Luka Modric is gonna be missed.
But it’s very hard to see beyond a three goal win for Madrid (-3.0 at around 6/4), more booty for James and Ronaldo and perhaps a little something for Chicharito (5/1 first goalscorer) whose game time is limited but whose form is sparkling.
Madrid have appealed Isco’s second yellow at Málaga last weekend. If rescinded he starts in a James-Kroos-Isco midfield. If not it’ll read James-Illarramendi-Kroos
NB: Ref Undiano has sent Ramos off three times in his career.
That Sevilla don’t particularly like the Vallecas visit and might lose here is established – five defeats, two draws and just two wins since 1993.
However things have slightly fallen into their laps in terms of the build-up to what could be a stand-out game for attractive football.
Unai Emery’s side have Bob Beamon-ed their way out of a mini crisis with 10 goals in their last two wins.
Ahead of this testing trip to Madrid their last league game was over 24 hours earlier than Rayo’s [Sunday afternoon compared to Monday night] and at home to Granada rather than away in Almeria.
Then their Copa del Rey win over Sabadell was Wednesday, not
Thursday unlike Rayo who lost at home, 1-2, to Valencia.
It all meant that from Sunday evening onwards key figures like Carlos Bacca, Beto, Stéphene M’Bia, Dani Carriço, Nico Pareja, Éver Banega, Aleix Vidal and Vitolo could mix time-off with recuperative training and miss the 5-1 win over Sabadell.
How much faith do you put in that?
Los máximos goleadores de ambos clubes son Leo Baptistao con 6 goles y por parte del almeria Edgar con dos goles. pic.twitter.com/D9eRDuKZpb
— Rayo Vallecano (@BollRayo) December 1, 2014
Don’t forget that because of the Uefa Supercup and Europa League guys like Carriço, Bacca and Pareja have 1700, 1400 and 1300 minutes game-time respectively this season.
Throw in the travel time involved in Europe and that’s a significant difference to Rayo’s most used player, Tito, with 1142 Liga minutes, star strikers Baptistão (above) or Bueno with 944 and 966 respectively.
Sevilla have scored the same number of goals as Rayo have conceded, 24 and in the 26 Liga matches the sides have played this season there’ve only been four draws. In theory it should favour Sevilla. It’s 14 games since they drew an away match – all wins or defeats.
Emery likes counter-attack, his team is confident and in-form and unless they leave their cojones behind them, and wilt, there’s the chance of a rare there points here for them. Even if they have to win it late on, should Rayo wilt.
Even if you pay intermittent attention to Spanish football you’ll know of Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique. He crossed the divide from Madrid to Barça, played for Bobby Robson, won copious amounts of trophies and matured into a Camp Nou great. But Sergio González?
I’d wager you might struggle with the Espanyol coach. Until I remind you that with Super-Depor he won at Arsenal, scored in a win at Old Trafford, beat Bayern Munich home and away, beat Juventus, thrashed European Champions AC Milan 4-0 and scored in the 2002 Copa Del Rey final defeat of Real Madrid. At the Bernabéu. On the 100th anniversary of Madrid’s foundation.
Barcelona’s 1-0 win over Valencia was a fair result, according to coach Luis Enrique. pic.twitter.com/h2cGbmkrje
— Purely Football (@PurelyFootball) December 1, 2014
As a side note, he scored, too, on his Espanyol-Barcelona derby debut back in April 1998 when [as on many occasions] he was up against Luis Enrique.
Does any of that influence who’ll win on Sunday? No, but allow a man to set the scene.
Lucho and Sergio represent precisely what this Derby-lite lacks.
The city doesn’t shudder to a stop as in Madrid, Milan, Manchester, Liverpool.
At the Camp Nou there will be a mere trickle of away fans. Next to no noise – even should they win.
But, regularly, there’s intensity bordering on nastiness on the pitch, and the two coaches represent ‘this is my club’ spirit – the types for whom there’s a significant ‘edge’ to a game like this. If the fans felt the same way about it we’d have a spectacle on our hands.
Right now Barcelona are Jekyll and Hyde. Stormingly good in much of their attacking play at Ajax and Apoel, dozy in the first half against Sevilla then devastating thereafter. Then dopy and slower than sludge for 80 minutes last week against Valencia only to grimly keep plugging away until they hit an added time winner.
The plain fact is that Sergio doesn’t have a single player, with the possible exception of the excellent Sergio Garcia, of his class and sustained excellence.
It’s hard not to back Leo Messi, six goals and an assist in his last three games, and hard to explain why Luis Suárez’s form went backwards last weekend after he’d broken his duck in Cyprus.
Those who admire the Uruguayan will bet on him making Espanyol pay. Andrés Iniesta is back, looking in decent form, which isn’t necessarily a hint he’ll score but definitely a supply of better ammunition for Neymar, Messi and co. Barcelona by three (at about 7/4).
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Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.
Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.
Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.
Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.
Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.
And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.
Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.
Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.
The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.
Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.
For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.
Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!
Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens
So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.
It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.
‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’
Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.
No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.
For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].
This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.
Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1
A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.
Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile
Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.
Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.
That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:
“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”
Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.
That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.
As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?
Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.
Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7
If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.
So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?
In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.
To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?
A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.
Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1
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Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?
At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.
Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.
The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?
Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.
Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.
Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.
Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet.
Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.
Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]
@Teseo9Javi Welcome to home @MalagaCF pic.twitter.com/rQ0u81IhZr
— Álvaro Fdez Ortega (@ertottimlg) January 5, 2015
Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.
Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.
Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.
‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.
Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.
Nuno Espírito Santo respeta al Celta ▶ http://t.co/KSut7kapF3 pic.twitter.com/CANXIW94bB
— AS (@diarioas) January 9, 2015
Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.
Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.
Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.
Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.
Joaquín Larrivey se perderá dos partidos de Liga y dos de Copa http://t.co/oxFX5ix3Ya #Comunio pic.twitter.com/Zh5egJeSZ3
— ComunioES Noticias (@EScomunio) December 29, 2014
Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.
But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.
Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?
The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.
Now factor in the extra data.
Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.
Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.
Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.
If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.
Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.
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