QPR out to defy history

There is just one game on Monday and Queens Park Rangers can take another step towards the promised land of the Premier League when they host Derby County at Loftus Road, with kick off at 1945 BST.

It is no surprise to see Rangers installed as the 8/15 favourites in the match betting as they have been the standout performers in the Championship this season and hold an impressive home record, suffering just one defeat all season.

That came against Watford back in December but with just five draws and 12 goals conceded, a league high 14 home victories – and 41 goals scored in the process – the Hoops have been a powerful force in west London.

Don’t expect a lack of focus from the leaders either on Monday, Neil Warnock will not allow that to happen with the job yet to be completed, and the three points might be enough to secure promotion before they next take to the field – Norwich need to beat Ipswich later in the week to delay what looks like the inevitable.

Of course the victory would open up a 10-point gap over Cardiff in second and it looks a tall order for Derby to get a result, considering they have struggled this season and are not yet mathematically safe from the drop.

A win would go a long way to at least guaranteeing Championship survival, although with an eight-point cushion over third-from-bottom Scunthorpe there will be plenty that think the Rams are safe already.

But a can case be made for the Rams to shock the leaders on their own patch and reward the punters who want to take the 11/2 on Nigel Clough’s men, while the draw is available at 3/1.

County have caused one or two surprises of late in a mixed run of form with home wins over Swansea and last time out against Leeds but were held by struggles Crystal Palace and Coventry.

A 2-1 defeat at Middlesbrough and a 4-1 hammering at Cardiff suggests that Derby’s best form has come at Pride Park, borne out by the fact that they have won just five and lost 10 on their travels this term.

Only Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer than County on the road this term, which is not the kind of form sides want to take to the league’s best defence.

However, history is on Derby’s side as they have lost only four times in the league at Loftus Road and not since 1982, when QPR were last promoted to the top flight.

The Rams also hold a 16-12 record in head-to-heads, although the majority of matches have ended in a stalemate with 17 draws between the sides, and fans may be happy to take a repeat of the reverse fixture.

Clough’s men looked set for the three points on August 28 at Pride Park but Patrick Agyemang and Jamie Mackie both scored in injury time to salvage a point (16/1 a repeat scoreline).

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Hammers must defy history

Cold, hard stats show only one team has been bottom of the Premier League at Christmas and managed to stay up, and that was West Brom five years ago (Baggies 8/1 to be relegated).

West Ham must hope that feat is repeated as they will prop up the table when they sit down to their Christmas dinners on Saturday.

A point was a creditable result from their last match at Blackburn, especially considering the Hammers have not broken their duck on their travels this season. But all the same, they will feel it was two points dropped against a team without a manager (West Ham 4/9 to be relegated).

In the end, it took a late equaliser from Junior Stanislas to even give them a point after Ryan Nelsen had bundled home Blackburn’s opening goal.

With all teams facing three games between now and January 2, all a club could really want at this time of year is for two of them to be at home. And that is the Hammers’ situation, as they face vital back-to-back games at Upton Park against fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves.

Avram Grant has denied having been told by the board that he had to win one of his next three games – including the Blackburn match – but if it is true then he must target a maximum return against Everton who are the draw specialists on their travels. The Goodison Park side have drawn five of their nine away games, losing just two.

The Hammers will be glad all three of their games are against teams in the bottom seven – their away match comes next, at Craven Cottage, where Fulham are battling for their lives, outside the drop zone on goal difference.

Going into the Boxing Day fixture, West Ham are three points away from safety, but the bottom half of the table is the tightest it has been for years and from Wigan – third from bottom on 16 points – there are only six points up to eighth-placed Newcastle.

Few teams can hope to survive without picking up at least a couple of away wins, and there are three others besides the Hammers who have drawn a blank on their travels so far. Christmas would be the perfect time for Wolves, Fulham and Birmingham to win away from home for the first time.

After such an impressive season last time, it is surprising to see Birmingham flirting with the relegation zone, but they have only won three times all season. Despite only losing once at St Andrews, the Blues are failing to kill teams off and have drawn four home games.

Birmingham’s festive programme is not what they would have wanted. They go to Everton on Boxing Day, then have to host Manchester United and Arsenal in successive matches (Birmingham 7/2 to be relegated).

Fulham could be forgiven for being distracted in the league last season while they progressed in the Europa League, but they have no such excuses this time. The Cottagers’ problem has been failing to get over the finishing line – they have drawn 10 Premier League games and only won twice (Fulham 7/2 to be relegated).

There is no escaping it, the Boxing Day clash between Wolves and Wigan at Molineux is a relegation six-pointer and neither side wants a draw from the fixture.

Latics have bounced back after the 2-0 defeat at Arsenal to draw 2-2 at home to Stoke and hold Everton to a goalless draw at Goodison Park. Wolves’ good work in the 3-2 home win over Sunderland in late November was undone in their only game since, a 3-0 defeat at Blackburn (Wigan 8/11 to be relegated, Wolves 5/6).

Of all the clubs at the bottom, Aston Villa arguably have most reason to feel confident going towards the turn of the year.

Villa are five places from the bottom and not entirely free of rumours that Gerard Houllier’s stay at the club will be a short one, but owner Randy Lerner is ready to splash the cash in January to try and help the club climb up the table (Aston Villa 10/1 to be relegated).

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