Tag Archives: history

History with the French

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The knockout stages at Euro 2012 are now in full swing with the attention on Saturday turning to the defending champions as Spain take on France in Dontesk, Ukraine, with the kick off at 745pm.

Vicente del Bosque’s men have not quite hit the heights that many expected of them and that is reflected in the betting, as they have now slipped to second favouritism for the tournament outright, priced at 5/2 behind 2/1 market leaders Germany.

Despite their relative troubles against Italy and Croatia it is worth noting that La Roja still qualified as Group C winners, while France had to settle for a runners-up berth in Group D in what looked an easier task on paper.

Spain are not expected to slip up in Donetsk as they are priced as the 4/5 favourites in the match betting, with the draw on offer at 5/2 while Les Bleus can be backed at 4/1 to cause a shock.

Forgetting the Republic of Ireland clash, Del Bosque’s side struggled to a 1-1 draw in their opener against Italy, while Croatia missed two golden chances to open the scoring before Jesus Navas popped up with a late winner.

Laurent Blanc’s team had started the tournament in reasonable fashion, enjoying the better of a 1-1 draw against England before easing past co-hosts Ukraine 2-0.

However, their dismal failure against already-eliminated Sweden in the last group game has perhaps dampened the spirits, particularly given the news of a dressing-room spat which brought back memories of the problems suffered at the World Cup in 2010.

At 4/1 though, France cannot be ruled out of the reckoning – providing the players have put the fallout from the Sweden defeat behind them – as they have never lost to Spain in a competitive fixture.

Les Bleus triumphed in the final of the European Championships in 1984, won again in the quarter-finals in 2000, while they were the last team to eliminate Spain from a major tournament when they triumphed 3-1 in the first knockout stage at the 2006 World Cup.

La Roja have of course gone on to win Euro 2008 and the World Cup since that defeat and have lost just one game in the process – 1-0 against Switzerland in South Africa.

Spain have won 36 of 38 competitive games since that French loss and will undoubtedly be hard to beat, although there appears to be one or two question marks over the current team.

Del Bosque started the tournament with a ‘false nine’ in Cesc Fabregas against Italy and, although he has two goals to his name, Fernando Torres has started the last two games.

Right-back Alvaro Arbeloa has come in for some criticism from the Spanish media with calls for Juanfran to start against France, who have the dangerous Franck Ribery operating down the left-hand side.

Laurent Blanc has his own issues to sort out, with Karim Benzema a constant threat in La Liga last season but yet to hit the target at Euro 2012.

Philippe Mexes is definitely ruled out through suspension meaning the France boss has to alter his defensive plan, although he is boosted by the news Samir Nasri has been passed fit to play.

Spain have won three of the last four encounters between the two, albeit in friendlies, and may find a little more space against the French, who were critical of England’s defensive tactics against them in the opening round of fixtures.

By the same token, the French forwards may find a little more space themselves and can cause the champions’ back four problems, which certainly sets up an intriguing contest.

Added to the mix is the possibility of the teams’ trying to win a psychological edge ahead of the World Cup qualifiers as they have been drawn together in Group I.

Spain are understandable favourites but history is on the side of the French and they look the value at 4/1 to score a shock, in a game that looks to have a good potential for goals (Over 2.5 Goals – 6/4).

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Montpellier ready to make history

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The final games of the Ligue 1 season take place on Sunday and it looks set to be a thrilling last day at both the top and the bottom. Montpellier and Paris Saint-Germain are both battling it out for the title, while no fewer than eight teams are fighting for top-flight survival.

Montpellier are in the box seat to take the trophy for the first time in their history, with a three-point lead over their closest challengers, PSG. The goal difference is equal though, at +33, and a slip-up from the leaders on the final day is likely to see the big-spending captial outfit snatch the title.

But Rene Girard’s league leaders look unlikely to lose against already-relegated Auxerre, especially on their current run of form. Montpellier have only lost one of their last nine games, winning seven of those including away victories over Marseille, Toulouse and Rennes.

PSG’s only hope is that the pressure is off Auxerre and that they look to end on a high note – with the bottom club winning just one of their last three home games (Match Betting – Auxerre 5/1, draw 11/4, Montpellier 4/7).

Carlo Ancelotti’s men also have a big game at Lorient, who could go down if beaten by PSG. Lorient did win the reverse fixture 0-1 in Paris back in August and have not lost to their final-day opponents in the last five meetings.

But PSG (10/1 to win 3-0) have lost just once in their last seven league games and the goals have been flying in as well, with 16 scored in their last five fixtures.

Should, as expected, Lorient lose to the title challengers, then Les Merlus are in real danger of dropping out of the top flight – with just a point between them and the relegation zone.

Two relegation spots need to be filled and second-from-bottom Dijon look almost certain to join Auxure in Ligue 2 next season. Patrice Carteron’s men will start the day two points from safety and face a tough trip to seventh-placed Rennes (Match Betting – Rennes 4/5, draw 11/4, Dijon 16/5).

Of the other relegated-threatend teams, the one fixture that could prove crucial is the clash between Valenciennes and Caen – currently 12th and 17th respectively and both in danger of going down (HT-FT Draw/Draw 4/1).

Caen have lost on their last three visits to the Stade du Hainaut and look like the side that could fill that third relegation birth.

The other teams still fearing a last-day relegation are third-from-bottom Ajaccio (away to Toulouse), Brest (away to Evian), Sochaux (home to Marseille) and Nice (away to Lyon).

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Spurs to rewrite history

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Sunday’s action in the Premier League brings us two mouth-watering fixtures, with a north-east derby and a top-four clash all in store. Don’t forget the small matter of Wolves‘ fight against the drop as they take on Fulham as well. With an action-packed day in store we look into whether we can have it a profitable afternoon.

Newcastle v Sunderland 12pm

The day begins at St James’ Park with these two rivals looking to bounce back from disappointing results last weekend. Martin O’Neill’s honeymoon period at Sunderland is well and truly over after last weekend’s 4-0 hammering at West Brom and now he takes his team to Newcastle, a scene of one too many nightmares if you are a Black Cats fan.

Sunderland’s last win at St James’ came 12 years ago in 2000 and since then Newcastle have won four of the six meetings on Tyneside, including last season’s 5-1 hammering of their rivals. The Toon though will have been worried by how they let a two-goal lead slip last weekend – perhaps they thought they were good enough to hold off relegation-threatened Wolves playing in second gear. However, this Newcastle squad isn’t good enough to do that and Alan Pardew will have reminded his team they will have to work hard if are to secure a European spot.

However, with Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse up front Newcastle have two outstanding goal threats and that is what should give them the edge over Sunderland. The Senegalese duo will relish the chance to test a defence that conceded four last weekend. Ba is 5/1 to score two or more, while Cisse is 13/2, and if anyone is going to win what should be a pulsating derby for Newcastle it should be these two. Newcastle are 11/10, with Sunderland 13/5 and the draw 12/5 in the match betting.

Fulham v Wolves 2:05pm

You might look at this fixture as the chance to fit in your Sunday lunch before the main event later in the day but do not underestimate what this game could offer. Under Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes, Fulham were not great to watch but Martin Jol has them playing a much more pleasing brand of the beautiful game. What hasn’t changed under Jol though is how strong the Cottagers are at home. Fulham have lost just three matches at home all season, taking points off Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Newcastle.

Fulham are 8/13 to beat Wolves this weekend and you would expect the game to go that way. However, Wolves are unbeaten in their last six away and proved last week at Newcastle they are not going to slip into the Championship without a fight. Terry Connor might have been a bizarre choice as manager but if he can continue to galvanise the team as he did last weekend then who knows what will happen. Wolves are 11/4 to pick up a point and that would be a great result for them.

Tottenham v Manchester United 4:10pm

Having been humbled by Arsenal last weekend, the last name Tottenham fans would want to see on their fixture list is Manchester United’s. Spurs haven’t beaten the Red Devils in 25 meetings, their last win over Sir Alex Ferguson’s men coming in May 2001. Harry Redknapp’s charges will be desperate to forget about last week’s north London derby and bounce back against United, which will certainly be easier said than done.

Despite last Sunday’s loss, there are still plenty of positives for Tottenham heading into this week’s game, not least their fantastic form at home. Redknapp’s men ripped apart Newcastle in their last outing at White Hart Lane and, given United’s sometimes-fragile defence, will feel they can finally get a win over the Red Devils under their belts. With Gareth Bale also expected to play, it could be a long afternoon for whoever Ferguson’s starts at right-back.

However, this is traditionally United’s time to shine and last weekend’s win at Norwich was typical of how Ferguson’s men perform when the chips are down. United have also been given a boost with the news Wayne Rooney is fit and given the way Tottenham’s backline crumbled last week the England striker will be licking his lips at the prospect of playing on Sunday.

Given the way these two teams have defended at times this season, as well as the attacking talent on show, over 2.5 goals at 8/11 should be a safe bet. As for the result, if Redknapp has moved his team on from last week then there is no reason they can’t put a dent in United’s title hopes. Spurs are 15/8 to win in the match betting, with the draw 23/10 and United 6/4.

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QPR out to defy history

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There is just one game on Monday and Queens Park Rangers can take another step towards the promised land of the Premier League when they host Derby County at Loftus Road, with kick off at 1945 BST.

It is no surprise to see Rangers installed as the 8/15 favourites in the match betting as they have been the standout performers in the Championship this season and hold an impressive home record, suffering just one defeat all season.

That came against Watford back in December but with just five draws and 12 goals conceded, a league high 14 home victories – and 41 goals scored in the process – the Hoops have been a powerful force in west London.

Don’t expect a lack of focus from the leaders either on Monday, Neil Warnock will not allow that to happen with the job yet to be completed, and the three points might be enough to secure promotion before they next take to the field – Norwich need to beat Ipswich later in the week to delay what looks like the inevitable.

Of course the victory would open up a 10-point gap over Cardiff in second and it looks a tall order for Derby to get a result, considering they have struggled this season and are not yet mathematically safe from the drop.

A win would go a long way to at least guaranteeing Championship survival, although with an eight-point cushion over third-from-bottom Scunthorpe there will be plenty that think the Rams are safe already.

But a can case be made for the Rams to shock the leaders on their own patch and reward the punters who want to take the 11/2 on Nigel Clough’s men, while the draw is available at 3/1.

County have caused one or two surprises of late in a mixed run of form with home wins over Swansea and last time out against Leeds but were held by struggles Crystal Palace and Coventry.

A 2-1 defeat at Middlesbrough and a 4-1 hammering at Cardiff suggests that Derby’s best form has come at Pride Park, borne out by the fact that they have won just five and lost 10 on their travels this term.

Only Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer than County on the road this term, which is not the kind of form sides want to take to the league’s best defence.

However, history is on Derby’s side as they have lost only four times in the league at Loftus Road and not since 1982, when QPR were last promoted to the top flight.

The Rams also hold a 16-12 record in head-to-heads, although the majority of matches have ended in a stalemate with 17 draws between the sides, and fans may be happy to take a repeat of the reverse fixture.

Clough’s men looked set for the three points on August 28 at Pride Park but Patrick Agyemang and Jamie Mackie both scored in injury time to salvage a point (16/1 a repeat scoreline).

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Hammers must defy history

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Cold, hard stats show only one team has been bottom of the Premier League at Christmas and managed to stay up, and that was West Brom five years ago (Baggies 8/1 to be relegated).

West Ham must hope that feat is repeated as they will prop up the table when they sit down to their Christmas dinners on Saturday.

A point was a creditable result from their last match at Blackburn, especially considering the Hammers have not broken their duck on their travels this season. But all the same, they will feel it was two points dropped against a team without a manager (West Ham 4/9 to be relegated).

In the end, it took a late equaliser from Junior Stanislas to even give them a point after Ryan Nelsen had bundled home Blackburn’s opening goal.

With all teams facing three games between now and January 2, all a club could really want at this time of year is for two of them to be at home. And that is the Hammers’ situation, as they face vital back-to-back games at Upton Park against fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves.

Avram Grant has denied having been told by the board that he had to win one of his next three games – including the Blackburn match – but if it is true then he must target a maximum return against Everton who are the draw specialists on their travels. The Goodison Park side have drawn five of their nine away games, losing just two.

The Hammers will be glad all three of their games are against teams in the bottom seven – their away match comes next, at Craven Cottage, where Fulham are battling for their lives, outside the drop zone on goal difference.

Going into the Boxing Day fixture, West Ham are three points away from safety, but the bottom half of the table is the tightest it has been for years and from Wigan – third from bottom on 16 points – there are only six points up to eighth-placed Newcastle.

Few teams can hope to survive without picking up at least a couple of away wins, and there are three others besides the Hammers who have drawn a blank on their travels so far. Christmas would be the perfect time for Wolves, Fulham and Birmingham to win away from home for the first time.

After such an impressive season last time, it is surprising to see Birmingham flirting with the relegation zone, but they have only won three times all season. Despite only losing once at St Andrews, the Blues are failing to kill teams off and have drawn four home games.

Birmingham’s festive programme is not what they would have wanted. They go to Everton on Boxing Day, then have to host Manchester United and Arsenal in successive matches (Birmingham 7/2 to be relegated).

Fulham could be forgiven for being distracted in the league last season while they progressed in the Europa League, but they have no such excuses this time. The Cottagers’ problem has been failing to get over the finishing line – they have drawn 10 Premier League games and only won twice (Fulham 7/2 to be relegated).

There is no escaping it, the Boxing Day clash between Wolves and Wigan at Molineux is a relegation six-pointer and neither side wants a draw from the fixture.

Latics have bounced back after the 2-0 defeat at Arsenal to draw 2-2 at home to Stoke and hold Everton to a goalless draw at Goodison Park. Wolves’ good work in the 3-2 home win over Sunderland in late November was undone in their only game since, a 3-0 defeat at Blackburn (Wigan 8/11 to be relegated, Wolves 5/6).

Of all the clubs at the bottom, Aston Villa arguably have most reason to feel confident going towards the turn of the year.

Villa are five places from the bottom and not entirely free of rumours that Gerard Houllier’s stay at the club will be a short one, but owner Randy Lerner is ready to splash the cash in January to try and help the club climb up the table (Aston Villa 10/1 to be relegated).

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Bielsa out to make Chile history

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Coach Marcelo Bielsa says he is confident his Chile side can rewrite history when they meet Brazil (1/2 to beat Chile) in their last-16 match on Monday.

Chile have a dreadful record against their South American counterparts having beaten them once in a decade, that win coming in a World Cup qualifier in 2000.

Brazil have lost just seven of their previous 65 meetings, winning the last seven matches and scoring 26 goals in the process.

They beat Chile twice in qualifying for the tournament – 3-0 away while they recorded a 4-2 home victory over their neighbours.

Monday’s match promises goals again with Chile having surprised many with their attacking approach to the game, playing three upfront with a man in behind during the group stages.

Despite only scoring three goals in the group stages Bielsa’s side created a hatful of chances as they proved themselves to be real contenders.

However, their lack of discipline could cost them with three players suspended for the second round clash.

Midfielder Marco Estrada was sent off in the 2-1 defeat to Spain (4/1 World Cup winners) while Waldo Ponce and Gary Medel received their second yellow cards of the tournament.

Chile have been shown ten yellow cards thus far and Bielsa will be hoping they can keep their cool against a Brazil side likely to frustrate by monopolising possession.

The five-time winners navigated the ‘group of death’ without losing a game and while lacking some of the flair we have come to associate with the Samba Kings they still look a real force.

Coach Dunga has been criticised for his style of play back in Brazil, especially after Friday’s dreadful goalless draw against Portugal as they were frustrated by Cristiano Ronaldo and co.

However, they are unlikely to come up against a Chile side looking to defend and will find themselves with more room to play at Ellis Park.

While Chile will have to be careful not to get caught on the counter attack by Brazil coach Bielsa is confident his tactics will end their ten year wait for a win over Brazil.

“You always believe you can do it, and overturn an unfavourable trend,” said Bielsa.

“Every game affords you this opportunity and Monday is a very attractive opportunity for us.”

The winner of this all-South American clash will face either Holland or Slovakia in the quarter final stages of the World Cup.

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