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Graham Hunter: Barca v Madrid again, but Atletico will be knocking on the door

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If La Liga’s your bag then it’s already clear you know your football and you know that, technically, tactically and trophy-wise it’s the best league in the world – by far. But if you like the increasing tendency for the survival of the fittest, rather than the survival of the richest, this promises to be the season for you.

  • Athletic Club have already ripped into Barcelona putting five past them in the Supercup.
  • Valencia humbled both Madrid and Atlético last season
  • Real Sociedad beat each of the ‘big three’ last term
  • Atleti defeated Madrid in the Copa final of 2013, won the title in 2014 and performed historically well against Los Blancos over the last twelve months. Four ‘derbi’ wins
  • Atleti can consider they cost Madrid title in that Barça won by just two points last May.
  • Positions three, four and five were separated by a single point each time.
  • Barça lost at home to both Málaga and Celta

Diego Simeone wiki edit

 

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There is ferocious competition – it’s just that such competition, allied to mega-budgets, has forced some absolute excellence out of Madrid and Barcelona over recent years. Four Champions League titles between the clubs since 2009 is testimony to that. Frankly, La Liga’s clubs cope better with doing battle against these two than the rest of Europe does.

But while it’s not realistic to ask Sevilla or Valencia to win the title I think Atleti may be back. Or at least they look as threatening, well-organized, balanced and goal-hungry as in winning the title in 2013/14. What Cholo Simeone needs is a wee bit of help from the big two.

Madrid are in the hands of a serial winner. No-one should doubt that IF he’s not undercut by his own employers, IF he’s not caught up in a PR war between Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, IF he doesn’t fall out chronically with the aggressive, quixotic, fair-weather friends of the Madrid media then Rafa Benítez’ talent, added to Los Blanco’s playing resources, could feasibly make them either Spanish or European champions.

Cristiano Ronaldo

 

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But you get my theme? Look at the list of man-traps waiting for him there – and that’s just a sample. It’s a botch-up not to have signed David De Gea by now – Madrid conceded 17 more goals than the champions last season. Can they lock the door this time? Stocking Benítez’s two man midfield in a 4-2-3-1 – will come from Kroos, Modric, Kovacic, Casemiro. Powerful. But the front four? There’s the potential for disharmony, confusion and problems. How to fit in Ronaldo, Bale, Isco, James, Benzema, Lucas Vazquez, Cheryshev, Jesé?

“We have to reach the decisive part of the season attacking and winning games” Benítez said the other day. Madrid fans want that now. In working out your bets you may want to factor in that Los Blancos won ONCE against the rest of the top four in the league. Goal aggregate 8-13 against.

Barcelona have the talent to win another treble –  but do they have the desire or depth of squad? Resources diminished by the FIFA ban [Vidal and Arda can’t play till January and won’t be sent out on loan] they’ve also lost Xavi, Pedro and Montoya. That’s 104 appearances and thirteen goals which can only be replaced by B-team guys and the now-fit Vermaelen. Piqué’s ban means he misses the first four matches. Luis Enrique squeezed every single drop of concentration, effort, intensity and talent from his squad – even hurdled a mini crisis when he went head-to-head with Leo Messi in early January. But can he repeat that?

Lionel Messi 2013

 

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Will Benitez have the same kind of in-squad help from anyone that ‘Lucho’ got from Xavi? [Correct answer: no] Thus, can Atleti sneak in and rob the family silver? If the market closes and they have kept Antoine Griezmann and he’s paired with Jackson Martínez and Luciano Vietto with El Niño Torres showing them what playing for the Colchoneros really means then … possibly.

What a league where it’s Messi-Suárez-Neymar v Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo v Griezmann-Jackson-Vietto! No three-club strikeforces in any country in the world will outscore that lot cumulatively. Atleti can’t be considered outright favourites. But dark horses? Yes.

  • Able to work in lower profile
  • Superb coach
  • Diego Godín settled and committed,
  • Two top keepers
  • Talent, youth and huge experience in midfield
  • A deep squad –
  • A winning mentality.

Last season, before they re-stocked, I worried this might be Atleti’s first trophy-less season since 2008/2009 [which other club around Europe can boast that astonishing record?] Not so sure now. Goalscoring? The eye is always drawn to the Messi v Ronaldo battle – barring injuries they should split the top two positions. But I think the gap will narrow.

Both Suárez and Neymar look capable of increasing their tallies [without misfortune the Uruguayan will have over two months extra via which to do that compared to last season] Messi is much more focussed on trophies than scoring records and, as such, might increase his ‘assist’ tally. Not a suggestion I’d make about CR7.

David Moyes

 

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Benítez wants Benzema to: ‘…break the 25 goal barrier’, while both Jackson Martínez and Griezmann have all the equipment to exceed 30 goals in all competitions. Who’d be a goalie?

I’m backing Athletic for the Copa [five Cup finals reached since 2009], Marco Asensio to be the stand-out ‘revelation’ of the season, Sporting and Betis to fight it out for fans of the season … but what of David Moyes and La Real?

Shorter on goals than Danny De Vito is on centimetres this is, finally, a squad and an XI which should be competitive. But things haven’t yet ‘clicked’. Bruma’s wing-pace, the goal potential of Carlos Vela and Jonathas, Pardo’s control of midfield organisation. Moyes made them work their socks off in pre-season. But La Real couldn’t score.

They’ll should be much more robust, much less likely to be powder-puff away from Anoeta. And if things do ‘click’ they’ll fight for a Europa League place. But as Samuel Eto’o once said: ‘Goals! They are like rats up a drainpipe if you chase after them – you’ve just got to wait and let them come in their own time. Right now, La Real could do with a rat-catcher.

Happy season punters.


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Graham Hunter: A Catalan conflict can open the door for Real Madrid and a 9/1 treble

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Espanyol v Barcelona – Saturday, 3pm

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Right, so it’s a bit neck-and-neck at the top of La Liga just at the moment and we’ve six games left.
The top two might meet in the Champions League Final and they don’t particularly like each other.
It’s kinda tense.

Which makes Barcelona’s stroll across the city to Espanyol not exactly a … stroll. There’s a Spain Oddity, which might appeal to David Bowie, whereby if two teams finish on identical points the first criterion via which to separate them is – head-to-head. It becomes a little like a Cup tie. ‘Which team won more of the Liga meetings between the two and if it has been a win apiece then what’s the goal aggregate?’

Thus it is that if Barcelona should drop two points between now and the end of the season and Madrid win all their games they’ll finish tied on 94 points. The reason that Madrid would win the title in that scenario is that the first Clásico ended 3-1 to Carlo Ancelotti’s side while Barça won the second 2-1 – ergo Madrid win the title on a 4-3 aggregate over their nearest rivals.

I think it’s a cool system.

So what Madridistas are doing this weekend is sending positive vibes to the only other set of fans who dislike the Blaugrana just as much as they do – those at Espanyol. Just as a matter of interest, the last time Spain’s Primera Division was settled on the head-to-head rule was as recently as 2007 – Madrid winning thanks to a victory and a draw in the two Clásicos.

Espanyol fans will be dreaming, happily of their part in that when on the penultimate day, after Leo Messi had put Barcelona ahead with a Maradona-style ‘it was my head ref honest!’ goal via his hand, they equalized in the last minute and effectively cost Frank Rijkaard’s side the title.

It’s not identical this weekend because the Catalan derby is being played in Cornella, not at the Camp Nou. But there’s a hint of … ‘could we screw them up again?’ The hard fact for the league leaders is that while they’ve only lost three times in the last 24 away Catalan derbies [and since the Power8 stadium was inaugurated in 2009 they’ve three wins and two draws] not even a draw is guaranteed to keep them top.

In fact it’s feasible that dropping points here could cost Luis Enrique’s men the treble. Feasible at least.
So, how to call it?

In Barcelona’s favour – attitude, determination not to cede the title to Madrid, determination not to trip up here of all places, a good winning run, Suárez and Neymar on good goal form.

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on

Against them – the fact that they aren’t putting in 90 minute performances too regularly right now. A draw at Sevilla thanks to a major second half drop off, a thrashing of PSG in the making at 2-0 up by half time and in total charge surrendered because they drop into cruise-control for the rest of the match. Espanyol – their two great positives are ex Madrid keeper Kiko Casilla and ex Barça striker Sergio García.

Casilla says: “When it comes to this derby it doesn’t matter the size of your budget or your salary bill – it’s us v them and they aren’t the only ones with a say in who wins the league”. Fightin’ talk.

Los Periquitos have only conceded four times in eight matches and a draw’s not impossible here. Barcelona, on form, will win and stay top – Suárez and Piqué profile as possible scorers. Neymar? One in seven in La Liga, four in four all comps. But Espanyol not to be discounted – a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 1-0 are three of the last five results in this fixture. Barça have every important player available, Espanyol bring back Salva Sevilla and Juan Fuentes while Víctor Sánchez is suspended against his old team and Felipe Mattioni injured.

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Atletico Madrid v Elche – Saturday, 5pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile There were more good words than good play from Atleti in midweek when they lost the Madrid derby and exited the Champions League. Cholo Simeone refused to blame the referee for Arda’s red card, all the players who spoke mentioned departing the competition with pride, that they’d be back soon and more determined than ever. There was a ‘we’ve not let anybody down vibe’. Now we’ll see whether the painted smiles masked broken hearts. This is when the reigning champions need to prove that they gave their utmost against Madrid, that they left beaten but unbowed and that they are capable of not carrying any psychological after-effects into this match. Atleti’s four point lead over Valencia, guaranteeing them Champions League revenue again next season is utterly vital for this club and you can expect them to fight like tigers to protect it. You can expect the fans to show defiance by turning up and howling their support for Los Rojiblancos. But was there any damage done between Cholo and Griezmann when the in-form youngster was bizarrely removed from the game in midweek? Otherwise he should have goal solutions …. and it’s time Mandzukic, Torres and Raúl García came to the party again in that respect. Elche? Only two teams have scored fewer than them, only two have scored more than them … so how they hell are they within a win and a draw of staying up? Because they lose to the big guns and neatly pick off the weaklings around them – Cordoba, Levante, Almeria, Eibar. Only if Atleti are carrying a big hangover from losing to Madrid is this not a two goal win for the champions. Gabi and Mario Mandzukic, are back with respect to the Depor game – only Mario Suárez, Ansaldi and Cani are dropped. Get on Graham’s tips: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano – Sunday, 6pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile Last week I suggested the big question was: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’ the only sad thing being that I didn’t say: right here! This’ll be a 1-1 draw! Different story here you’d imagine. Although the Europa League holders had to travel to and from St Petersburg this week and that doesn’t come without an impact on freshness of mind or physical tiredness the buzz of having eliminated Zenit, the really top quality performance in Russia and the fact that they are at home should be a positive cocktail of advantages.

Remember – Sevilla are 24 home games without defeat in over a year, they have a deep squad, they are desperately trying to get a finger-hold on fourth place and they’ve beaten Rayo 5-2, 2-1 and 4-1 the last three meetings.
Indeed while Paco Jemez’s side is fun to watch and has massively over-performed to be so high up La Liga they’ve still lost six of their last seven away matches and twice conceded six goal defeats in doing so.

Beto had a ‘mare for Sevilla and Sergio Rico should return, Pareja is out for months with ligament damage but Iborra, Reyes, Denis Suárez and Gameiro are all available to add freshness to Unai Emery’s athletic, hard running team. Both teams to score, Bacca, Vitolo, Gameiro all looking backable for the Europa League holders.

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Celta Vigo v Real Madrid – Sunday, 8pm

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Of course, even if the underdogs win the Catalan derby it’s never straightforward at the top of La Liga. In theory, Barcelona could suffer the embarrassment of dropping points to a cock-a-hoop Espanyol .. but then be rescued by the team which Luis Enrique made.

Madrid, fresh from their agonizing and tiring derby on Wednesday via which they sneaked past Atlético and into the Champions League semi final must visit the Balaidos Stadium in Vigo where they never get a pleasant welcome and where, last year, they lost. In fact it’s just short of a year since Los Blancos formally kissed goodbye to the title in that 2-0 defeat to Luis Enrique’s mob – both goals scored by Charles.

It was a Madrid team shorn of Ronaldo, Benzema, Carvajal, Pepe and which needed to put Raúl de Tomas, Burgui and Willian José on the bench. They’ve all gone on to great things of course …. hold on. No. And, symmetrically, this huge test of nerve and desire comes when Ancelotti will be without Benzema, Bale and Modric for sure. Marcelo returns and, just as with Barcelona in their match, if Madrid play near their top they can certainly win.

But it may influence how you punt to know that before last season the last time Celta beat Madrid at the Balaídos in La Liga was 2001. [Celta did win 2-1 in La Copa back in 2012]

In between there were six straight Madrid wins – no draws – but five of those wins were by a single goal. Three 1-2’s and two 0-1’s. Almost without exception it’s a hostile, characterful place with a fishing/industrial background and a blue-collar attitude to match the Celta shirts.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Complacency is usually punished. Nolito, as always, is Celta’s best and most threatening player although Larrivey may profit from the aerial ball into the box. That said while Santi Mina’s four goals this season all came against Rayo he’s a quick-footed talent whose reputation would soar if he scored here.

Madrid by a goal would be the percentage bet but go figure for yourselves what the impact of tiredness, tension and injury absences might do.

James Rodríguez is the shining light right now – not only talented and fully integrated but consistently behaving like a team leader. His link up play with Ronaldo and Chicharito make Madrid very tempting here. There’s enough to suggest that both teams score but that Madrid out-gun the light blues.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Phillips to push Wolves nearer door

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There are four games in the Premier League on Sunday and all can have repercussions at either end of the table. Here is a look ahead to all the key fixtures.

Birmingham City (11/10) v Wolves (5/2) Draw (23/10)

Birmingham City need to make their home fixtures count and especially against fellow relegation rivals Wolves. Alex McLeish’s side are only three points above the drop zone but they should have enough about them to sink Mick McCarthy’s troops further into the mire.

Birmingham have won three of the last four league meetings with Wolves – including a key Championship promotion battle at this stage of the season in 2009.

They appear to match up well against Wolves in that they can handle the rough and tumble nature of a West Midlands derby but also possess players with that extra bit of quality to grab a goal in a tight game. Kevin Phillips did it last year by scoring twice as a second half substitute and his record against Wolves is such that he will be a very good bet to be First Goalscorer (9/2) or Last Goalscorer (9/2).

Bet – Birmingham (11/10), Phillips First Goalscorer (9/2) and Last Goalscorer (9/2)

Liverpool (1/2) v Newcastle (6/1) Draw (3/1)

Liverpool have not lost a match at Anfield since Wolves’ shock 1-0 victory back in December and there is no reason to suspect that their run of seven wins and three draws since then will come to an end on Sunday.

Newcastle have picked up six away points from the last 21 on offer and have only scored three away goals since they sold Andy Carroll to Kenny Dalglish’s side.

Carroll’s ability to link up with fellow new boy Luis Suarez is already in evidence and it may be prudent to back both players in the anytime goalscorer market. However, Liverpool’s record of leading at half-time in their last ten shows that they have secured an interval advantage in only four of those fixtures. So take the 3/1 on offer for Draw/Liverpool in the Double Result market.

Arsenal (6/4) v Manchester United (9/5) Draw (9/4)

Arsenal have won only two of the ten matches they have played since the Carling Cup final loss to Birmingham City in February. Their fragile self-belief was cracked by Obafemi Martins at Wembley while Manchester United are now dreaming of ending their season in glory at the same stadium.

The Gunners can cause United problems on their own patch, no doubt about it, and in players like Theo Walcott and Robin van Persie they have more than enough to suggest that they will score.

However, Manchester United will not give an inch and may be worth backing to stun Arsenal by coming from behind to with the match. Totesport are offering 10/1 that United can do what only Tottenham have done at the Emirates Stadium this season.

Bet – Van Persie Enhanced First Goalscorer (6/1), Man Utd to win from behind (10/1)

Manchester City (2/5) v West Ham United (7/1) Draw (7/2)

Manchester City can take another huge step towards Champions League qualification with what should be a routine home win against bottom-of-the-table West Ham in the late Sunday game.

City’s morale will have been boosted by Spurs’ failure to take anything at Chelsea and, if the home side score early, this could be a horrible afternoon for Hammers fans.

Roberto Mancini’s tactics have been conservative at times this season but if David Silva gets on the ball and dictates the play they could score three or more goals for the seventh time since the turn of the year. City are second bottom of the Overs/Unders table – with their games averaging just 2.45 goals, but West Ham are a side they can tear apart and they may end up very comfortable winners in the end.

Bet – Man City (-1 Handicap) (21/20)

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James knocking on the door

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David James insists he is fully fit and available to play in England’s second Group C game against Algeria on Friday (Eng 1/4, Alg 11/1, Draw 4/1 – 90 Minutes Betting).

Many had predicted that the Portsmouth shot-stopper would be Fabio Capello’s first choice at the World Cup because of his greater experience.

But the Italian decided to go with Robert Green against USA and the West Ham keeper was castigated for a calamitous error with led to America’s equaliser.

There had been suggestions that James was suffering with an injury and that’s why he played no part in Rustenburg, but the former Liverpool and Aston Villa man insists he is “fit and well”.

Reports have also claimed that the Pompey man had been unhappy at the way Capello delayed the decision to announce who would start between the posts and that he was left on the bench.

James has denied that though, saying: “I don’t have a problem with the selections. I am part of the squad.

“Rob hasn’t been on the losing side in a qualifying or competitive match. There are seven games and 23 players.”

Meanwhile, Green says the late team selection did not hamper his preparation for the 1-1 draw with the US.

Some pundits had claimed that Green was ill-prepared for the match, as he only found out that he was starting just two hours before kick-off.

But the Hammers custodian has rejected that his ‘late selection’ was an excuse for the error that cost the Three Lions (England 4/9 to win Group C) an opening game win.

Green stated: “Only knowing two hours before the game that you are playing is not a problem. You prepare as though you’re playing.

“If you don’t, that’s the mistake. The other guys prepared as though they were playing and we will again for Friday. You prepare for Friday as though you are playing again. It’s not a surprise when you are playing then.”

Green has called on Capello to give him a chance to redeem himself against Algeria, although the coach is expected to make a late decision once again.

Green added: “You want to be tested. Playing lovely football and making wonderful saves is not a challenge. This is a challenge and this is why you are a footballer.

“It’s how you bounce back from things like that.”

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