The climax of the Euro 2012 jamboree is now upon us and it is not the ‘dream final‘ that many had predicted, with Italy proving too good for Germany – yet again – to set up a showdown with defending champions Spain in Kiev.
Many expected La Roja to be there again having started the tournament as the favourites on the back of their success in 2008, coupled with a World Cup triumph in South Africa two years ago.
Despite the squad being criticised for their ‘boring’ style of play, manager Vicente del Bosque’s apparent dislike of strikers and the fact they have perhaps not been at their best in Poland and Ukraine, Spain have made it through to the third successive major final having conceded just one goal in five games to date.
Nobody gave Italy much of a chance before the tournament got under way, having suffered defeats in all three of their warm-up games as well as the scandal back home which deprived Cesare Prandelli of a number of players earmarked for his squad.
The lack of a truly big name – such as Alessandro del Piero or Francesco Totti – left some wondering who could be the game-changer if things weren’t going according to plan – but they have improved as the tournament has gone on and were mightily impressive in their knockout victories over England (on penalties) and Germany in the semi-finals.
Spain have been installed as the 6/5 favourites in the match betting, with the Azzurri priced at 13/5 to upset their treble bid and the draw after 90 minutes on offer at 11/5.
Del Bosque’s men are expected to lift the trophy – one or another – as they are 8/15 in the outright betting, with Italy priced at 6/4 for ultimate glory.
These two sides have met in the tournament already as they shared a 1-1 draw in their opening game in Group C which suggests the Italians are far from out of it, and they perhaps are the value bet given the way they dispatched tournament fancies Germany in the last four.
Prandelli now has a striker in form with Mario Balotelli banging in both goals against the Germans to take his tournament tally to three – and he is the 11/8 favourite to go on and be named the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer.
The Manchester City hitman wasted a great chance to score against the Spanish in the group stages but should now be full of confidence and can be backed at 7/1 to score the first/last goal on Sunday and at 10/1 to score 2 or more.
Fernando Torres, with two tournament goals to his name, still has a chance of topping the goal charts and can be backed at 10/1 to do so but punters will be taking a chance on him opening the scoring as a 5/1 favourite as he has not started three of five games in the tournament, and did not even come off the bench against Portugal.
Following his disappointing display in the semis, Alvaro Negredo is unlikely to be given the nod again, which could open the way for Cesc Fabregas to be reinstated in the ‘false nine’ position that Del Bosque appears to favour.
Like Torres, the Barcelona man has two goals to his name and did score in the earlier draw with Italy after Antonio di Natale had put the Azzurri ahead – with that goal still the only one conceded by Spain in the tournament to date.
However, Spain have traditionally found it hard going against Sunday’s opponents in tournament football and have not beaten Italy in 90 minutes in competitive games since 1920, needing penalties to get past the Azzurri in the quarter-finals in 2008.
If Spain manage to gel then it could be a long evening for Italy but they have shown little sign of dominating any match so far – with the exception of the Republic of Ireland cakewalk, while Del Bosque appears unclear as how best to utilise his squad.
Italy, though, have really got it together and having sent a Germany side that many thought were better than Spain packing, they offer the value to cause another shock and put their recent troubles behind them – as they did in 2006.
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