The FA Cup always throws up one or two shocks along the way with Wigan already dumped out by League Two Swindon, while Macclesfield were denied a Premier League scalp by a late Bolton equaliser – although the betting suggests we would be in for the biggest surprise yet if it were to happen on Monday night when Arsenal host Leeds United.
The Gunners are 1/4 favourites to make it through to the fourth round at the first attempt, while Leeds are on offer at 11/1 to enjoy the romance of the cup with the draw priced at 9/2 in the match betting.
It is hard to argue with the betting given that Arsene Wenger’s men have been an elite team in the country for many a season, while the Elland Road outfit are trying to make their way back to the top-flight from League One football just two seasons ago.
There will be those who fancy the price on the away win as in that promotion season, Leeds famously beat Manchester United at Old Trafford 1-0 in the third round, while they also took Tottenham to a replay the same year after a 2-2 draw at White Hart Lane.
Last season, the Whites were at it again and held this year’s third-round opponents to a 1-1 draw at the Emirates, before losing 3-1 in the replay back on home territory.
That previous form may tempt some, but Leeds have endured a difficult run in the Championship of late with a 2-1 home win over Burnley last time out ending a three-match losing streak.
Simon Grayson’s men do still remain in play-off contention but, because of that, it might pay to see what line-up Grayson puts out against the Gunners, particularly with injuries beginning to take their toll.
Centre-back Paddy Kisnorbo has picked up a knee injury which will keep him out for the rest of the season, while fellow defenders Tom Lees and Alex Bruce are struggling to make it.
Captain Jonny Howson and playmaker Robert Snodgrass are also amongst those on the injury list, which is making the case for a shock win all the more difficult, even with a host of changes expected for Arsenal.
Defensively the Gunners are down to the bare bones with Thomas Vermaelen, Bacary Sagna, Carl Jenkinson, Kieran Gibbs and Andre Santos all ruled out through injury, while Johan Djourou is suspended.
Robin van Persie has been on fire for the Gunners this season and has single-handedly kept them in the Champions League hunt, and he has unsurprisingly been installed as the 9/4 favourite to be the First/Last Goalscorer.
The latter of those is more viable as the Dutch striker is expected to be rested for this tie so there could and should be more value elsewhere – and Thierry Henry is worth considering at 9/4 First/Last and 5/4 Anytime as he is set to start on his return to the Gunners.
Marouane Chamakh is also available as Wenger has successfully delayed his departure to join up with the Morocco squad for the African Cup of Nations and may be worth a punt at 5/1 First/Last.
There has generally been a glut of goals between these two in recent meetings and, with both defences shorn of key players, there should be more on Monday evening, which is reflected in the betting – Over 2.5 Goals at 4/9, and 4 or more goals at 6/5.
Providing Arsenal do not get caught up in Henry’s return, they should have too much for an injury-hit Leeds side to cope with, although an away goal cannot be ruled out (Arsenal 3-1 Correct Score 10/1).
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