The post Watch: Graham Hunter sees tough games for two of La Liga’s top three and a comfortable stroll for the other appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
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Madrid have been jeered by their own fans when Depor came to town before, albeit not often.
That was the infamous Copa Del Rey final when the original cast of the Galácticos were gifted the right to play the showpiece match at their own stadium, the Santiago Bernabéu, back in March 2002 because the 6th was their 100th birthday.
Depor came to town, wrapped up the final with very little trouble, 2-1, and the shock rocked Spanish football helping cost Vicente Del Bosque his job just over a year later.
This time the jeering and whistling will come in the form of a retrospective reprimand from the ‘hawkish’ Bernabéu
Losing, pathetically, at Atlético last week was sore enough for the fans.
But the spectacle played out over the last few days in the media as first photos and then a video from Cristiano Ronaldo’s birthday party on that Saturday night has corroded a lot of built-up goodwill between the team, Ronaldo and the fans.
Not a single Spaniard from the squad, nor Bale, Benzema, Varane, Chicharito or Kroos attended. But, as Ronaldo danced and sang with his Colombian pop-star pal, Pepe, Marcelo, Coentrao, Keylor, Khedira and James were present so you can count on hard-line Madridistas being outraged. And letting the team know it.
Since losing eight goals at home to Madrid in September the following 19 games have shown Victor Fernández‘ long-standing managerial ability.
Depor have only won five but they’ve also drawn five and the fact that they’ve kept eight clean sheets in that time has meant they’ve gone from a low of last place to 11th today – five points off the relegation zone.
I suppose the very concept of a ‘shock’ result implies one it’s hard to see coming. So, a shock here?
Madrid out-of-form, missing key footballers in front of a skeptical, angry audience. Depor, a bit more sturdy but significantly short of the class that ‘holds out’ for 90 minutes at a venue like this.
If ever the modern, debilitated Depor had even a sniff of that shock then this is it.
But it’s too hard to believe in. Perhaps Madrid will look stodgy, perhaps Depor can frustrate.
However Ancelotti’s team simply CANNOT afford to do anything other than win here or the heavens will fall on their heads. Pablo Insua is suspended, Sidnei injured, José Rodríguez ineligible thanks to the terms of his loan from Madrid.
If you reckon they’ll score, look to Cavaleiro or Oriol Riera for Depor. But unless the home team win by two or three there’ll be hell to pay. Madrid will be: Casillas; Arbeloa, Nacho, Varane, Marcelo; Isco, Illarramendi, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo
Perm from Benzema, Kroos, Isco and the out of form Ronaldo. Marcelo is back from suspension but Pepe, Modric,Coentrão, Khedira Ramos and James remain out, injured or are seeking fitness.
Back to beginnings.
Quique Sanchez Flores was not only an aggressive right back for Valencia for nearly 300 games in the 1980’s it was in his single previous season at Getafe coach that he did well enough to earn his shot at coaching Valencia.
That was when Los Che were reigning champions [04/05] and QSF had just been pinched, by Madrid-based Getafe, from the Real Madrid youth coaching system.
His Getafe beat the title-holders [then coached by Claudio Ranieri] at the Coliseum and lost 3-1 at the Mestalla but he’d done enough to inherit when Valencia got shot of the Tinkerman.
QSF only lasted two and a bit seasons but he did precisely what is now demanded of Nuno Espirito Santo – qualify for the Champions League.
Old Quique has football in every corpuscle.
He shares a birthday with Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Carlos Tevez, his dad, Isidro, was a repeat trophy winner with Real Madrid, his Godfather was Alfredo Di Stéfano while he himself won the title with Los Blancos and went to Italia 90 in the Spain squad.
But he’ll be doing damn well to repeat Getafe’s 3-1 win at Valencia last season. They’ve only played at the Mestalla ten times in the league -eight defeats, that one win and a draw.
It’s a sign of the changing times at the Mestalla that only two Valencia players from that rarest of rare defeats last season will start on Sunday [Barragán and Parejo].
Nuno doesn’t fancy the lunchtime kick-off [midday here in Spain] so he fixed a closed-doors friendly against Zenit on Thursday at midday just to practice the ‘feeling’.
Valencia won 1-0 [Parejo scored again] and it looks like they’ll start Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá; Enzo, Fuego; Piatti, Parejo, Rodrigo DP; Negredo.
Geta did Valencia a huge favour last week, beating Sevilla, I’d expect them to repeat the good feeling this week by losing here.
None of those who’s goals won the first meeting this season [0-3 Valencia] will start: Alcácer, Rodrigo Moreno and André Gomes.
Parejo can’t stop scoring [already the highest total of his career], Negredo owes his boss a goal, Gayá, who’s fllying, is a wee ‘outside’ bet.
Álvaro is QSF’s repeat scorer. Five straight wins at home for Valencia in all comps since November, Getafe’s last Liga away win was in October. Back the home team by two.
Their main striker, David Barral, scores a hat-trick as often as Jose Mourinho admits: ‘You’re right, I was out of order’.
So it’d be nice to try and play-up Levante’s chances.
But I’m not sure that’s realistic. Since losing to Real Sociedad on January 4 Barcelona have played ten, won ten and scored 37.
There are patches of play where they are as electrically quick, as intuitive and as confident as at any time since the peak of the Pep Guardiola era. Not all the time, but regularly.
This season their La Liga goal-ratio is 62:13; historically they’ve played Levante eleven times at the Camp Nou, winning eleven and scoring 41.
So unless something seismic is about to happen let’s assume a home win …okay?
Perhaps the art is in determining the margin. Neymar’s rate of goals since losing at the Anoeta is nine in nine matches – but the last three games have seen him fluff really gaping chances, including a penalty against Villarreal in midweek. So do you back his goal-a-game record or feel critical because he’s not been properly clinical?
Messi should get 2+ goals here but thinking about Pedro, Xavi, Rafinha or Rakitic might bear fruit here because Luis Enrique will certainly try to rotate his first-choice XI throughout the match.
As for Suárez he continues unchanged. Exceptional in his team play, bursting with assists but finishing less ruthlessly than he’d like. Barcelona’s most regular score at home to Levante is 5 – perhaps they’ll have to settle for a slightly less impressive result this time?
Suárez, Messi, Pedro and Barral.
Talk about some sort of curse. It’s not opening the Tomb of Tutankhamun, or running amok with a jack-hammer in a mirror factory.
But Joaquin Larrivey did his karma some sort of damage when he scored Celta Vigo’s first La Liga winner at the Camp Nou since World War II.
Prior to that historic night last Autumn the big Argentinian had seven goal in ten league games. Rocket-fuelled.
Since then, not one in 649 minutes and ten games. Three and a half horrible months.
Last season he scored against Atleti for Rayo and quite fancies a return date.
“I’m not sure if it’s true to say that I ‘miss’ the glory of scoring so long as the team wins but I’m hungry to start again and it’s a good battle against Godín and Miranda. “They are aggressive, tough and keep their concentration high for the whole game. “It’d be a great way to start another run of goals getting one against them this weekend”.
And he might be worth a look. Atleti are without Koke [injured], Raúl García and Arda Turan. Interestingly, for a centre half, tough-as-teak Godín will play with a broken nose, using a plastic ‘Phantom’ mask.
RT @diegogodin: Recién estrenando mi máscara. Ya pude entrenar y probarla pensando en el domingo. pic.twitter.com/fvJ065dJwk
— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) February 11, 2015
Can he be as effective, as fearless in every challenge?? Saúl, despite injuring his knee while making the third goal last week, should be good to start. So Cholo Better Call …. oh, you got there already…
Meanwhile El Cholo Simeone has been practicing this week with Mandzukic, Griezmann and Fernando Torres up front.
A statement of intent.
Celta, remarkably, haven’t won at home to Atleti since 2005 – losing 0-1. 1-3 [twice] and 0-2 in the four games since.
Those two sides shared four goals in the first meeting of the season and a result of that order doesn’t look impossible now that Celta, if not Larrivey, have remembered how to score the odd goal.
Look for Torres, Griezmann, Larrivay and Nolito as likely scorers. Good betting.
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If you think this is precisely the kind of fixture for which Quique Sanchez Flores was brought back to win then you’re gonna LOVE this stat.
The two sides have met at this stadium in Madrid ten times in the Primera Division and Sevilla have only won once. Six years ago.
Sevilla won the Cup Final the two contested [2007]. Sevilla won the Cup Final when Quique was the Atletico manager [2010]. Sevilla won when they met at the Alfonso Perez Coliseum in the Second Division.
But in the top flight Getafe are stubborn as mules when this lot come to town.
Less promisingly Quique’s two matches in charge of Getafe v Sevilla, a decade ago, each ended in scoreless draws littered with yellow cards.
IF you want to build a case for this talented, charismatic manager to win this one then here’s what you’re up against.
His eight games in charge have seen two wins, five goals and only three scorers – Álvaro, Diego Castro and Pedro Sarabia.
More, Geta are still without: Vicente Guaita, Babá Diawara, Ángel Lafita, Karim Yoda and Sergio Escudero.
But here’s the rub. Sevilla blew a chance to win in Madrid in midweek – mostly because they couldn’t finish chances.
And, before they return to the capital this weekend it has cost them.
Keeper Beto is out for at least 8 weeks after his collision with Benzema and Unai is without Vitolo, Aleix Vidal and Carriço because of suspension, adding to an injury list of Tremoulinas, Pareja, Reyes, Gameiro and Cristóforo.
They should have beaten the European champions on Wednesday, they are the better team in this match… but this is football.
This is a place they hate coming.
To me it all smacks of either Quique’s third consecutive 0-0 draw against Sevilla, ten years on, or, if he’s lucky, Mehdi Lacen, back from Copa Africa, adding to his regular groovy performances against Sevilla and a 1-0 win.
Graham Hunter’s Bet: 0-0 draw at 13/2
So, will this match tell the story of Espanyol’s or Valencia’s season?
That’s crucial.
On Matchday 3 Los Che romped it. 3-0 up until a 90th minute penalty which Sergio Garcia converted
Valencia pushed them about, played on the break, ignored any of Espanyol’s nice passing patterns and just got the knuckle-duster out.
Bish, bash bosh.
That day Lucas Vázquez and Felipe Caicedo were only subs for the visitors. Coach Sergio González had other priorities.
From then till now a great deal has changed.
For example, Valencia are Charles Atlas at home, eight stone weaklings away.
Espanyol now feel very differently about Lucas and Felipe.
Caicedo’s on a blistering scoring run – eight in his last eleven to equal his best-ever goal form which was 2010/11 with Levante. Lucas, on loan from Madrid, looks smart and technically elegant.
Now a regular starter and full of creative threat he, plus Caicedo, Duarte, Moreno, Sergio Garcia and Casilla have transformed Espanyol’s season.
Such that they knocked Valencia out of the Cup, 3-2, with the Ecuadorian striker notching twice.
A result which added to the unsettling fact that although Nuno Espirito Santo is patently a firm part of a powerful and still very new project at the Mestalla there’s growing concern at his team’s apathetic away form and the concept that he’s a tactical tinkerer – too often fiddling with the formation and the starting XI.
Last week they let us down at Málaga – barely showing up.
Play like that again and, although they are a better XI and better squad than Espanyol, they’ll lose.
This week, having already suffered 7 red cards this season, they are without both Otamendi and full back Cancela – suspended.
Home wins in January over Celta, Almería, Valencia and Sevilla [10 scored 1 conceded] tell you that Espanyol aren’t to be sneered at, a home loss to Eibar before that tells you that they ain’t the Bank of England either.
Caicedo, Sergio G and Stuani worth a look for the home side, Piatti, Negredo and Paco Alcacer for the visitors.
Graham’s Bet: Espanyol win at 7/4
This is one for the superstitious – those who see patterns in numbers and statistical trends which mustn’t be ignored.
The last time Luis Enrique’s mob were ‘oop north’ in the Basque country it was the first match of the year, at the Anoeta, and it was grim.
An own-goal, a defeat – both ridicule and a mini-mutiny for having left not only Neymar, Piqué, Rakitic and Alves out – but Messi too.
The defeat came just after a mini holiday.
Now they are back in the Pays Vasco – after a mini holiday.
Another mini revolt, too. The players, and to be fair the coach, didn’t want to play a scheduled friendly in Qatar this week so it was cancelled.
Everyone bar Piqué and Neymar had two and a half days off.
So, what chances of the result or the performance at San Mames repeating that of the Anoeta and leaving the title chasers with egg on their faces again?
Do you sense a pattern emerging?
It’s a thorny place, traditionally. Since 2004 Barcelona have three wins, six draws …but only two defeats in league and cup at the San Mames.
The key fact, however, is that given their four point deficit to Madrid at the top Barcelona can’t afford either of the latter two results. Not even a draw.
It’s February, so to pretend that this is an all-or-nothing weekend would be immature.
But it paints as an opportunity. Barcelona cure their travel-ills and get a bit Jack Kerouac. Memorable on the road. [Geddit?]
Away from the Camp Nou they’ve dropped thirteen points and consistently looked vulnerable.
But IF they’ve shed that personality, IF the form at the Calderón and Riazor is the real Barça then here’s the script.
They pick up three points and Madrid draw in the derbi.
Gap down to two points with a Camp Nou Clásico still to play.
That’s got to be how Luis Enrique is figuring this weekend.
What makes this particularly juicy for the neutral is that Athletic have stemmed the hemorrhage of bad results recently.
Wins and draws against Málaga and Levante in Cup and League have brought three goals for Aduriz and a sixth of the season from man-mountain defender Miki San-Jose.
Susaeta has set up three of the last four Athletic goals and they DO like to notch with a header.
Something Barcelona notoriously struggle to cope with.
Summary? Barcelona too improved, too many options, too much quality. 2-1 to the visitors.
Up to you, but if both San Jose and Piqué start I’m gonna take a wild punt on both to score. But that’s how I roll.
The sane will look to Messi, Neymar, Suárez [who’s increasingly vital for this attack] and Aduriz for scorers.
Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 2-1 at 7/1
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Stuart McCall’s Motherwell side will have to show some steel if they are going to secure a first leg lead from the Europa League Play-off first leg clash against Spanish Primera Liga side Levante at Fir Park on Thursday.
Well dropped into the Europa League after Greek giants Panathinaikos ended their Champions League dream at the first hurdle and they have now been given a draw which is akin from being thrown out of the fire and into the frying pan.
Valencia’s other club, Levante, are enjoying their first taste of European football and arrive having recently sold star striker Arune Kone to Wigan Athletic, but Juan Ignacio Martinez still boasts a wealth of talent which can pose problems to Motherwell.
Veteran Greek hitman Theofanis Gekas was immediately drafted in to replace Kone and will look to hit the ground running with a goal in Scotland.
Levante got their La Liga campaign underway with a 1-1 home draw against last season’s Europa League winners Atletico Madrid at the weekend so will no doubt fancy their chances of gaining a satisfactory result.
McCall’s men won 2-1 at Kilmarnock at the weekend so come into the fixture on a high note and the former Scotland international is set to stick with the 4-4-2 formation he utilised in the Panathinaikos home tie for the game.
Simon Ramsden is out of the match which means Adam Cummins should partner Simon Hutchinson at the back.
Levante’s form this season is difficult to assess so early, but the fact they recorded wins over eventual La Liga champions Real Madrid, Champions League qualifiers Malaga, Europa League winners Atletico Madrid and finalists Athletic Bilbao last term suggests they are a capable unit.
A crumb of comfort for Motherwell is the Spanish outfit’s disappointing away form as they won only five from 19 away games in the league last season, have not won on the road since March and have been known to rely heavily on their home form in two-legged cup ties.
Therefore, if Motherwell are to progress in the Europa League then the outcome of Thursday’s match is likely to be crucial. But, whether they will have enough to take a lead to Spain for the second leg is a doubt.
Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 5/2
Value Bet: 1-1 Correct Score @ 11/2
Meanwhile, Levante’s Spanish rivals Athletic Bilbao should have no problems in overcoming A HJK Helsinki side which was dumped out of the Champions League qualification at the hands of Celtic and this is reflected in the 2/13 odds for them to win Thursday’s home tie.
Italian giants Inter Milan (12/1 Outright joint favourites) face a tricky first leg trip to face Romanian outfit FC Vaslui, but Andrea Stramaccioni’s men should have just enough at 4/6 to secure a lead to take back to the San Siro.
Steve McClaren guided then Premier League club Middlesbrough to the 2006 final of this competition. And, the former England coach will look to repeat that feat with Dutch side FC Twente this season. But his side are facing a tough first leg play-off trip to Turkey to face Bursaspor.
FC Twente defeated Czech side Mlada Boleslav 2-0 home and away in the previous round and have won their opening two league games against Groningen and NAC Breda respectively, so are on a high at the moment and 11/8 for a first leg away win looks a decent price.
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Much of tomorrow’s focus will be on England’s clash with Italy, but there is an entire programme of international fixtures to look forward to, including an intriguing test for Northern Ireland, who are 13/8 to beat Finland.
Michael O’Neill’s men head into the home clash at Windsor Park in torrid form, having lost their last five international matches.
Finland, meanwhile, have lost just twice on their last five outings and were surprise winners against Turkey less than three months ago.
It is surprising, then, that the Scandinavian outfit are also locked on odds of 13/8 to win the game, as they appear have the edge in form.
Northern Ireland are placed 101 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, with Finland, who will look towards Rubin Kazan hitman Alexei Eremenko for goals, sitting at a more respectable 72.
The draw is available at 9/4, but a price of 13/8 on a Finland win is too good to ignore.
Elsewhere, Scotland welcome Australia to Easter Road on Wedneday evening for an encounter that has the potential to go either way.
The Scots’ recent form has been inconsistent, although there was nothing uncertain about the manner in which the USA went about dismantling Craig Levein’s men in their last match three months ago.
Australia are without a win since February, with their last two matches against Oman and Japan finishing all square.
It’s unsurprising, then, that so little separates the two teams in the match betting, though Scotland are the slight favourites at 6/4, ahead of Australia at 7/4.
But given the Socceroos’ knack for stalemates in recent months, the draw market at 23/10 is probably the real value option here.
With both teams likely to feature players who will have their own upcoming domestic commitments weighing on their shoulders, it’s unlikely that either set of players will have the drive to take this contest by the scruff of the neck.
Wales are another of our home nations who will play on home soil on Wednesday evening as they welcome the often unpredictable Bosnia-Herzegovina outfit to Parc y Scarlets.
The Welsh are without a win in two following disappointing home defeats to Costa Rica and Mexico, where they failed to score on either occasion, while their Eastern European opponents have also found it tough in recent months, crashing to defeat in each of their last five matches, albeit against strong opposition.
The trip to Wales for Bosnia-Herzegovina is followed by European Qualifiers against Liechtenstein and Latvia, and Safet Susic’s men will undoubtedly be eyeing a hat-trick of wins.
Chris Coleman’s Welsh Dragons will be aiming to extinguish that dream at the first hurdle, but with both teams priced at 13/8, the former Fulham boss, preparing for his first qualification campaign as national coach, will be anticipating a close contest.
The price of 9/4 on a draw again offers good value for money, but both teams have incentives to win this one, and home advantage under a coach who is keen to impress may just be enough to see Wales home.
The last of our home nations, Republic of Ireland, will be aiming to dispel memories of an arduous Euro 2012 campaign when they head east to face Serbia, who themselves will be keen to prove a point after failing to qualify for the tournament in Poland and Ukraine.
Serbia are the strong 5/6 favourites for this game, with a confidence-low Ireland priced at 10/3 to salvage some pride at the end of a tough summer campaign.
The draw at 5/2 offers would be a reasonable pick depending on conditions, but it’s tough to see past a comfortable victory for Serbia in this one, with a 2-0 scorecast at 13/2 offering particularly good value.
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Serie A champions Juventus and Coppa Italia winners Napoli go head-to-head in the Supercoppa Italiana in Beijing on Saturday, but the curtain-raiser looks set to be overshadowed by Antonio Conte’s 10-month ban for match-fixing (Juventus evens, draw 21/10, Napoli 12/5 after 90 Minutes).
The Juventus coach was banned today for failing to report match-fixing while in charge of Siena during the 2010-2011 campaign.
Conte had a plea bargain deal rejected by the Italian federation earlier this month, a proposal which would have seen him serve a three-month suspension and pay a large fine.
Grosseto and Lecce have both been excluded from the second tier this season, while Conte’s assistant, Angelo Alessio, has been banned for eight months.
It is another stain on the Italian game and Juve will have to put the matter to one side quickly if they want to begin the new campaign with a bang (13/2 – Juventus to win 2-0).
Massimo Carrera will replace Conte on an interim basis and he inherits a side which swept all before them on their way to the Serie A title last term.
Going through a season unbeaten is almost unheard of, but is a feat Juve achieved. That record alone is remarkable. However, it is the goals against column which stands out the most.
Marshalled by veteran goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon, Juve conceded just 20 goals in 38 games. Opposing strikers were sick of the sight of the likes of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci by the end of the season.
Juventus did not have things all their own way – 15 draws suggests a lack of a ruthless side at times. They were also, of course, beaten in the final game of the season by tomorrow’s opponents.
Napoli won their first major trophy in 22 years and denied Juventus the double by beating the Turin giants 2-0 in the Italian Cup final in May.
Edinson Cavani inspired the surprise victory that day and he will feature for Napoli this weekend, despite mounting speculation over a move to England.
He will be key to their hopes in China (13/2 – Napoli to win 1-0), particularly in the absence of Ezequiel Lavezzi, who made the switch to big-spending Paris Saint-Germain earlier this summer.
Napoli missed out on a return to the Champions League last term. They have added to their squad in a bid to improve on their fifth-place finish. Valon Behrami and Goran Pandev are among those to make the switch to Naples. However, Napoli will struggle to match the achievements of recent years.
Conversely, Juventus look stronger than last season, despite the controversy surrounding their manager. The signings of Martin Caceres and Lucio will make them even more difficult to beat, while exciting youngsters Paul Pogba and Kwadwo Asamoah give them added flair.
Juventus will be keen to show they are united in the face of the latest scandal, while gunning for revenge for May’s cup heartache.
Napoli are always a dangerous outfit, but expect Juventus to dig deep and win the first silverware of the season (11/5 Half-time/Full-time – Juventus/Juventus).
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Celtic head into their Champions League third round qualifying tie with HJK Helsinki as favourites to move a step closer towards a place in the group stages of the competition, though their opponents head into the match with wind in their sails.
The 2011 Finnish champions, who currently trail 2012 league leaders FC Inter by two points, qualified to face the SPL holders with a 9-1 aggregate victory over Icelandic side KR.
And, while questions could be raised about the standard of opposition, the impact a comfortable victory can have on a team ahead of a big match should not be underestimated.
HJK are priced at 6/1 to leave Celtic Park with a first-leg win on Wednesday, which seems extremely generous considering their hosts’ lack of competitive action in recent months.
Celtic are priced at 4/11 to take an advantage with them back to Iceland for the second leg, while a draw is available at 16/5.
But, when you consider as well that manager Neil Lennon could be without key attacking duo Anthony Stokes and Kris Commons for the clash, it may be difficult for the Glasgow side to break down their less illustrious opponents.
Elsewhere in the third qualifying round, Celtic’s SPL rivals Motherwell welcome Panathinaikos to Fir Park Stadium for what will be a big occasion for the old Lanarkshire club.
The Greeks finished second in last season’s Super League, while the Steelmen’s third-placed finish in last year’s SPL was enough to ignite their own hopes of mixing it with Europe’s biggest clubs in 2012/13.
Following the withdrawal from the SPL of Rangers, there is belief at Motherwell that the team can challenge Celtic’s domestic supremacy, and advancement in Europe will also be high on head coach Stuart McCall’s list of priorities.
His side are available in the match betting at 3/1 to win the first leg tie, while Panathinaikos are priced at 4/5 to ruin the party, with the draw up for grabs at 11/5.
It’s a tough game to call, but a siege mentality from the hosts could make life difficult for the Greeks, who could be prepared to settle for a draw to take back to Athens.
Another tie to look out for is the showdown in Denmark, where FC Copenhagen face Club Brugge.
The men from the Danish capital qualified from their group in the 2010/11 Champions League and will be desperate to replicate that success after failing to make the competition last season.
Brugge, meanwhile, will be looking to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since the 2005/06 season, when they defied the odds to take a point from Bayern Munich before bowing out at the group stage.
Copenhagen are priced 21/20 to win the game, while Brugge are at 21/10, and the draw is at 11/5. But a cursory glance at the two teams’ domestic fortunes last season indicates there perhaps isn’t as much between these two sides as those odds suggest.
With that in mind, a punt on Brugge at relatively long odds could be a decent option here.
Finally, Bate Borisov will look to reach the group stages of the Champions League for a second consecutive year, but must first overcome Debrecen, who were comfortable winners in their second qualifying round tie against Albanian champions Skenderbeu Korce.
Debrecen have not reached the ‘competition proper’ since 2010/11, but, following their comfortable Hungarian league triumph in 2011/2, they will approach this challenge with confidence.
Bate are the favourites at 4/5 in the match betting, though Debrecen’s odds of 3/1 bely the team’s ability and recent form, so a bet here on the visitors at such a good price would make a lot of sense.
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England round off the second round of group matches on Friday when they take on Group D rivals Sweden in Kiev, kick off at 745pm, hoping to build on their opening point from the 1-1 draw with France.
Roy Hodgson’s side made a positive start to the tournament and could have been two up when Joleon Lescott headed home Steven Gerrard’s free kick but France hit back through Samir Nasri to earn a share of the spoils.
The Three Lions will certainly be happy with that, as the captain alluded to before the game, while France were a little disparaging of the tactics employed – although as has been demonstrated this season, it was tactics that could win silverware.
Once England had scored there was a tendency to drop men behind the ball and, although Les Bleus equalised in the first half, the pattern continued in the second period with Laurent Blanc’s men bossing proceedings but lacking the penetration.
It was certainly a performance that proved effective if the aim was to frustrate France, but England didn’t enjoy many shots at goal – one on target tells its own story – and they won few friends, amongst the neutrals that is.
Hodgson though is not in the business of making friends and will hope that his players can build on a solid performance against the group favourites when they take on Sweden, who are desperately in need of a good result following their opening loss.
England have been installed as the 11/10 favourites in the match betting to get their first win of Euro 2012, while the draw is priced at 23/10 and Sweden are on offer at 11/4 to cause a surprise.
Expectations ahead of the tournament were particularly low amongst England supporters and whether the opening performance will have changed them is open to question, but the Blagult will not go into the match without hope.
Hodgson’s players will know that Sweden carry less individual threat than the French but will be well-drilled and in Zlatan Ibrahimovic (7/1 First Goalscorer), they have a striker who is at the top of his game and capable of derailing the England bandwagon.
The AC Milan striker finished as the top scorer in Serie A last season with 28 goals and has already opened his Euro 2012 account against Ukraine.
All things good for Sweden in that nervy first game went through the 30-year-old, who still divides opinion on the terraces, and he is certainly the one to watch out for.
The problem for coach Erik Hamren is that he is arguably the only one to watch out for and if the strong England defence can shackle the enigmatic playmaker then that is almost the job done.
England though have their own issues and although Hodgson has only been in charge for three matches, a pattern has already emerged.
Defence is not the best form of attack and England have been doing plenty of that – defending, while struggling to look penetrative.
Against France that could be forgiven, but in two friendlies against Norway and Belgium, the Three Lions looked distinctly ordinary and those two countries were not good enough to qualify for this tournament.
Gerrard and Scott Parker are both expected to feature despite concerns over their fitness but it is the forward options that are the worry for Hodgson as he tries to find the combination to lead England to victory.
History is not on his side though as Sweden have not lost a competitive game against England in seven previous meetings, while their 1-0 defeat, courtesy of a Daniel Majstorovic own goal, in a friendly at Wembley in November was their first against the Three Lions since 1968 and ended a 12-match unbeaten streak.
Given the performances, Sweden look decent value to take the points but these games are always tight and the stronger defence will see England at least remain unbeaten in a low-scoring encounter, with 1-1 on offer at 11/2.
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Both the Republic of Ireland and Scotland return to international action on Saturday with a couple of tough friendly matches.
For the Irish they face Bosnia-Herzegovina in their last home game before they turn their attention to the serious business of Euro 2012. Elsewhere, the Scots have no major tournament to prepare for but they will be keen to get a result across the Atlantic against the United States.
Republic of Ireland v Bosnia-Herzegovina – 3pm
There is bound to be a jovial atmosphere inside the Aviva Stadium on Saturday as Irish supporters look for their team to continue their Euro 2012 preparations with a win.
Coach Giovanni Trapattoni has done a fantastic job with what is predominantly an ageing Irish team to get them to Euro 2012. However, if Ireland are to make it out of Group C, with Italy, Spain and Croatia all in their way, they will have to up their game.
The clash with Bosnia-Herzegovina is a good test of what this Ireland squad is capable of, with the Balkan nation narrowly missing out on a place in Poland and Ukraine this summer after a play-off defeat to Portugal.
Coach Safet Susic has a few talented players at his disposal, with Edin Dzeko, Miralem Pjanic, Senad Lulic and Zvjezdan Misimovic all expected to start on Saturday.
Having just failed to reach the European Championships you’d expect Bosnia-Herzegovina to give a good account of themselves, even after a long, hard season. With Trapattoni naturally cautious the game is unlikely to be an open one, especially given all of Ireland’s injury concerns in defence.
Kieren Westwood will start in goal ahead of Shay Given as he recovers from a knee injury. Paul McShane has been called up to the squad because the central defensive trio of John O’Shea, Richard Dunne and Sean St Ledger are all unavailable.
In attack, Trapattoni has a big decision to make when it comes to who should partner Robbie Keane (11/10 to score anytime), with Shane Long (3/2), Jon Walters (7/4), Kevin Doyle (13/8) and Simon Cox (15/8) all in the reckoning.
Despite having something to play for and home advantage Saturday’s game could be something of an anti-climax, with a draw the most likely outcome.
The draw is 9/4, with Ireland evens and Bosnia-Herzegovina 3/1.
USA v Scotland – 1am
Even the most hardy of Scotland fans might give this game a miss given the kick-off time here as Craig Levein takes his team to Florida for this ’soccer’ match. You might be forgiven for thinking this is just a jolly for the Scottish players and if they treat it like that then they’ll be turned over by a strong USA team.
Levein has taken a weakened squad to Jacksonville for the clash, with Jamie Mackie, Kris Commons, Darren Fletcher, Steven Naisimth, James Morrison, Graham Dorrans and Charlie Adam all left at home. The uncapped duo of Blackpool winger Matt Phillips and Dundee United striker Johnny Russell have been called up to fill the void but are unlikely to feature against the States.
Despite failing to reach Euro 2012 Levein can be happy with the progress he has made in the national set-up, losing just one of his seven games in charge and that was against Spain. However, the USA have a strong squad and under current coach Jurgen Klinsmann recorded their most famous result to date when they beat Italy 1-0 in Genoa in February.
The States team boasts a number of familiar names, with Clint Dempsey, Landon Donovan, Maurice Edu and Tim Howard all expected to feature against the Scots. Given the season Dempsey has had at Fulham he could be a good bet to score anytime at 11/8, or you could place him a scorecast with Dempsey first goalscorer and the USA to win 1-0 priced at 20/1.
The States have won the last four, three of which finished 1-0, and will be expected to roll over the Scots. A USA win is 8/13, with Scotland 9/2 and the draw 11/4.
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There are just two Premier League games on Sunday but there’s plenty at stake as Mark Hughes takes charge of QPR for the first time against Newcastle while Arsenal hope to maintain their bid for a top-four place with a win at Swansea.
Newcastle v QPR
The Hughes era at Rangers gets underway at the Sports Direct Arena in what is a stiff test for the R’s and their new boss.
Hughes said in his press conference this week that he had initially been impressed with what he had seen from his new charges in training and he believes he has a good squad at his disposal at Loftus Road that can definitely avoid relegation.
The new boss is expected to be handed significant funds and he is already close to landing defender Alex from Chelsea while several other targets have been identified.
More quality to compliment the likes of Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips and Adel Taarabt is needed but Hughes can get the best out of them and, with some additions, QPR can become a mid-table side.
A trip to the north east first up is a difficult test but expect ‘new manager syndrome’ to kick in with the Rangers players all desperate to impress and prove they have a future at the club. With that in mind, the visitors can claim a draw in this one at 13/5.
Newcastle (4/5 to win) have continued to exceed expectations this season and the stunning 3-0 win over champions Manchester United recently proved Alan Pardew has a squad to be reckoned with, and European football can be secured.
However, the Magpies are without top-scorer Demba Ba and influential midfielder Cheik Tiote so they are weakened for this clash. It all points to a lively clash and expect an entertaining draw – go for 2-2 at 14/1 in the correct score market.
Swansea v Arsenal
Arsenal’s recovery from a poor start this season has been impressive and the recent return of legend Thierry Henry has added to the feelgood factor at the Emirates.
A top-four place is well within the Gunners’ grasp once again this season and they should have enough to claim all three points at Swansea (Arsenal 8/11, Swansea 4/1, draw 11/4).
Henry made the perfect return when netting the winner within minutes of coming on in the FA Cup third-round win over Leeds on Monday and he is again expected to be on the bench to make an impact if boss Arsene Wenger needs him in the second half. In fact, he looks a good bet at 3/2 to score anytime in this one.
The Swans are another club to have exceeded expectations so far this season but you sense, like Blackpool 12 months ago, they are now entering the key phase of the campaign and need to maintain their form if they are to avoid getting dragged into a relegation scrap.
Brendan Rodgers has made an astute loan capture in bringing youngster Josh McEachran to the Liberty Stadium from Chelsea and they have impressed at home so far in the top flight, losing just once in Wales all season – against Manchester United.
However, they face an Arsenal side determined not to slip up in their pursuit of fourth and this looks likely to be a narrow away win. Take 0-1 in the correct score market at 6/1.
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