Monthly Archives: May 2011

City set for Potters repeat

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There is only one midweek fixture in the Premier League this week and as it happens, it is repeat of the FA Cup final with Manchester City hosting Stoke City at Eastlands – kick off at 19:45.

It does of course provide a very quick opportunity for the Potters to gain revenge for Saturday’s 1-0 defeat, but it is difficult to see that happening and it is no surprise to see City installed as the 2/5 favourites in the match betting, with the draw at 3/1 and Stoke available at 6/1 to take the three points.

There could be a case for thinking that with Champions League football already secured as well as a first trophy for 35 years safely locked in the cabinet, City may have their minds on the summer holidays.

However, Roberto Mancini’s side know that a win on Tuesday will see them climb above Arsenal into third place in the table and be in the box seat to secure an automatic entry into the group stages of Europe’s elite competition next term, with one game to go.

The Italian tactician has his mind firmly set on usurping the Gunners and banned his players from celebrating their FA Cup win to keep their heads clear for the remaining two games.

The City boss may of course choose to rotate his squad a little bit, but that merely highlights the vast difference in size and quality of the two squads.

Adam Johnson and James Milner, both England internationals, may well earn recalls and Edin Dzeko could return up front with City looking to wrap up a fine ‘home’ campaign, having lost just twice at the City of Manchester Stadium all season.

Carlos Tevez has seemingly recovered from a hamstring problem that had made him a doubt for the FA Cup final, but played on Saturday and is an obvious candidate in the goalscoring markets (10/3 First/Last Goalscorer), while Mario Balotelli won the man-of-the-match award at the weekend and is on offer at 4/1.

Tony Pulis simply does not have anything like the resources that his counterpart has at his disposal and Matthew Etherington will be a big miss for the Potters on Tuesday.

The former Spurs winger did of course start on Saturday but had not completely recovered from a hamstring injury – and Stoke lacked any real potency in his absence, rarely causing a stir in the City defence.

Jermaine Pennant took one or two blows on his ankle at Wembley and Pulis will be desperate for him to be passed fit to play, but whether that makes a difference remains to be seen.

The Potters have enjoyed a good season, securing Europa League football next term, and will be looking to seal a first top-10 finish since 1975, but City’s need is greater.

Stoke have been awful on the road as well and have won just three times while losing 12 of their 18 games so far, including the last nine – another reason for them to fear the worst.

City have the second-best home defensive record in the league, while Joe Hart has kept 16 clean sheets in the league and backing them to not concede a goal is worth an interest at 21/20, while a City win to nil is available at 13/10.

The Citizens created a number of chances on Saturday and although the big hitters may well pile into a 2/5 home win, taking Mancini’s men on the handicap (-1) against an injury-hit Stoke is worth consideration at 13/10.

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Braga must bore to beat Porto

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It is hard to look past a Porto victory in Wednesday’s Europa League Final in Dublin, but Domingos Paciencia’s Sporting Braga (11/4 Outright Winners) will make it very tough for the odds-on favourites.

The Braga coach has announced that this will be his last game in charge and, while he is not expected to be short of job offers for next season, it will be a huge feather in his cap if he can mastermind an upset.

However, his only chance of stifling a Porto side (4/9 Match Betting) that smashed 17 goals past Spartak Moscow and Villarreal in the quarter-final and semi-final ties, is to instruct his players to defend deep and hit the Portuguese champions on the counter-attack.

It is a tactic which Braga have utilised well in matches where they have been underdogs this season, notably in the Champions League play-off round against Sevilla at the Sanchez Pizjuan (4-3) and in the Group H home clash with Arsenal (2-0).

Paciencia’s approach to getting Braga through the knockout rounds was similar, although less spectacular, as the Minho men recorded narrow 2-1 and 1-0 aggregate victories over Lech Poznan and Liverpool to reach the last eight.

They then relied on the away goals rule to get past Dynamo Kiev (1-1) and Benfica (2-2), but that cannot come to their rescue in the winner takes all Dublin clash at the Aviva Stadium.

Paciencia cannot afford to let Porto’s pacy, creative players cause havoc by running at his back four and in order to shackle Hulk, Varela and Cristian Rodriguez he will deploy a 4-5-1 formation with Alan (11/1 First Goalscorer) or Lima (9/1) the likely lone frontman.

Braga fans have seen the goals dry up since Matheus, scorer of both goals against Arsenal, was sold to Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in January.

They have managed to find the net only 20 times in 21 domestic league and Europa League matches since the start of February, while Porto by contrast have scored 55 in that same period  – Porto 11/10 in Handicap (-1).

While stopping the service to Colombian hitman Radomel Falcao (7/2 First Goalscorer) will be key, Braga must also maintain their discipline and defend any set pieces they will inevitably give away resolutely.

It is a lot to ask with the amount of attacking talent in the Porto ranks and, should they concede an early goal, it will need a Plan B from the coach to get back into the match.

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United to keep bragging rights

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Manchester United claimed their 19th top-flight title on the same day as neighbours Manchester City broke their trophy drought by claiming the FA Cup. City are also in the Champions League next season so where might the Manchester balance of power lie in 12 months time? (United 13/8 to win 2011-2012  Premier League title).

United looked anything but title contenders in the early stages of the season with several below-par performances as Chelsea swept all before them.

But they kept winning, and claimed countless points with goals right at the death, with the Blues then imploding around the festive period to fall off the pace.

Carlo Ancelotti’s men did rally to mount a late challenge but it was too little too late and Sir Alex Ferguson’s men were deservedly crowned champions with a draw at Ewood Park.

Just a couple of hours later and it was the blue half of the city that was cheering as they won their first silverware in 35 years with a 1-0 success over Stoke City at Wembley.

With the monkey now off their backs, City will look to push on in the next few years to establish themselves as regular contenders for domestic and European glory.

So who might hold sway in the north west next term?

The jury may still be out on Roberto Mancini as manger and it is unclear whether he will be in charge of City’s next campaign, with rumours of return to Italy, but whoever is in the Eastlands’ hot-seat will not be able to compete with the experience and tactical nous of Ferguson.

The Scot’s record speaks for itself and, with a little tinkering here and there, it appears that he will have a squad to challenge for the title and in Europe against next season (United 13/8 to win Champions League final).

Javier Hernandez has emerged as real talent and, while the likes of Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs are coming to the end of the careers, there is a pool of talent at Old Trafford that should be able to cope with their retirement.

Edwin van der Sar’s decision to hang up his gloves will be Ferguson’s main concern as the Dutchman has been the club’s best keeper since the great Peter Schmeichel, and he will look to fill the void sooner rather than later.

Wayne Rooney looked back to his best during the title run-in and, with the England international star in the ranks, United will always have that x-factor that can get them a goal from nowhere.

City appear to have a squad already the equal of their rivals but it is the togetherness of the United players that has proved the difference this term.

When things were not going well they still seemed to find a way of grinding out a result – something the stars at the City of Manchester Stadium will have to learn how to do.

There will be further big-name signings for City this summer – maybe the biggest yet. But it will not matter a jot if they are unable to gel with their team-mates.

Money can buy class players but it cannot buy team spirit and, under Ferguson, United have always had it in spades.

The balance of power may be shifting in Manchester but it could be a few more years yet before the blue flags fly higher than the red ones in the football-mad city.

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Swans to drown Forest’s dream

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The last time Swansea were in the top flight Return of the Jedi had only just hit the cinemas, Billy Joel went to the top of the charts with Uptown Girl and seat belts became mandatory on British roads. A lot of things have changed since then, especially with the Jacks who nearly went out of business before staging a remarkable comeback. Swansea are now within touching distance of an appearance in the Championship play-off final and a chance to return to the top flight for the first time in 27 years. Thursday’s clash at the City Ground was tight but Nottingham Forest’s failure to take advantage of ten-man Swansea surely hands the advantage to the Welsh side. We preview Monday’s semi-final second leg.

After 90 seconds of the first leg, Forest fans must have thought it was going to be their night – Neil Taylor seeing red for a fairly x-rated challenge. However, anyone who thought that would open the flood gates for the usually free-flowing Forest were mistaken as Billy Davies‘ men found themselves banging their head against a brick wall.

Despite having scored 14 goals in their previous four matches the former European champions found it difficult to break down the Swans – their lack of imagination costing them in their bid to take an advantage to the Liberty Stadium.

Instead the goalless draw surely hands Swansea the impetuous considering their formidable record, the Jacks having lost just three times at home in the league. The Swans are evens to win the second leg of the semi-final, while Forest are 13/5 and the draw, after 90 minutes, is 9/4.

Forest didn’t enjoy their trip to south Wales earlier in the season when they were beaten 3-2, a score line which didn’t reflect the dominance of the home team on that day. Traditionally Forest have struggled away from home in the Championship with their form on the road costing them automatic promotion last season.

The current campaign hasn’t heralded a massive change in fortunes, despite back-to-back wins on their travels at the end of season. Those two wins were the only two they had managed in ten matches away from home.

Davies felt his side were unlucky in the first leg but after watching the video tape back might feel a little differently and could make changes to his side, with David McGoldrick, Garath McCleary, Marcus Tudgay and Radoslaw Majewski all waiting in the wings. For Swansea they have been given a boost with the news the dangerous looking Fabio Borini is fit to start. The on-loan Chelsea striker limped off in the first game with a hamstring problem but has been cleared to play and can be back to score anytime at 6/5.

While Forest stood firm to the Swans trio of Borini, Nathan Dyer and Scott Sinclair last week, with 11 v 11 it might be a different matter. It seems unlikely there is going to be a glut of goals, based on the first leg, but with the crowd behind them you’d say Swansea should have too much attacking talent for Forest.

Last year Forest suffered the heart-break of losing in the play-offs and unless they cause a real upset they will endure the same fate again. As for the Swans, they are 15/8 to go up and maybe that is worth a punt when you look at the team’s in the play-offs. After Tuesday most of south Wales could be preparing a Welsh invasion of the capital, if Swansea and Cardiff do what is expected of them and booked their places at Wembley.

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Eyes on the skies in SPL title fight

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The destination of the Scottish Premier League title has come down to another ‘Helicopter Sunday’ with Rangers (1/6 SPL 2010/2011 Outright) and Celtic (7/2) separated by a single point going into the final matches.

Both Old Firm managers are desperate to lead their team to glory for different reasons, with Walter Smith hoping to bow out at the top by sealing his tenth SPL crown and third straight since he was brought back in for a second spell at the Ibrox helm.

Neil Lennon’s story is well documented and if the Celtic boss, in his first full season in charge of any club, can end Rangers’ stranglehold on Sunday he will have been victorious amid the most trying personal circumstances of any sporting figure in recent memory.

Celtic’s task is simple – defeat Motherwell at Celtic Park (Celtic 1/5, Motherwell 12/1 – Match Betting) and hope that Kilmarnock can either win or draw against Rangers at Rugby Park.

However, Kilmarnock (9/1 Match Betting) are anything but Rangers’ bogey side – having lost their last seven meetings home and away over the course of the last two seasons (Rangers 2/7).

Kilmarnock, who will finish fifth, have had a good season under Mixu Paatelainen and caretaker-boss Kenny Shiels, but they have again been unable to trouble Rangers.

The Ibrox club are the only club they have failed to take points off and in their last meeting, which Rangers won 3-2, Killie caused their own downfall by conceding two penalties and having a player sent off.

Celtic Park will be full to capacity with fans hoping for a glimpse of the helicopter hovering overhead at 2.30pm and home advantage could enable the Hoops to at least finish the season on a high.

January signing Kris Commons misses out through a silly suspension picked up in the midweek victory over Hearts at Tynecastle and Israel midfielder Beram Kayal is another key loss to injury.

Gary Hooper (11/4 to score 2 or more goals) has had a great season in attack for Celtic and he has the chance of a consolation prize if he can score two more goals to draw level with Kenny Miller in the top scorer chart.

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Wigan to down hapless Hammers

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The battle at the bottom of the Premier League couldn’t be closer heading into the penultimate Sunday of the season, with West Ham relegated if they lose to Wigan in the game of the day. Elsewhere, Birmingham could make sure of another campaign in the top flight if they beat Fulham, while Liverpool and Tottenham battle it out for fifth. Plenty to look forward to and we pick out the best bets for each game……

Wigan v West Ham (4pm)
You don’t have to be a genius to work out where the most bitten fingernails will be on Sunday. The DW Stadium plays host to bottom club West Ham and one-from-bottom Wigan in a six-pointer.

Defeat for West Ham will send them down and even a win might not be enough to keep them up if results go against them. The Latics need three points to keep alive their hopes of survival and anything other than a win could end their hopes of beating the drop. While the Latics form has picked up recently they have still only managed one win in the last six matches. How West Ham long for a win – their last victory came back at the start of March.

The Hammers will have looked at Saturday’s results and realise the fat lady is warming up when it comes to their hopes of beating the drop. The Latics should have enough to take advantage but you get the sense that both of these teams are doomed.

Match bet – Wigan to win @ 21/20

Birmingham v Fulham (4pm)
Blues wouldn’t have been too impressed with results on Saturday as Wolves and Blackpool won, while Blackburn picked up a point against champions Manchester United.

That leaves Birmingham outside the relegation zone, but only on goal difference. A heavy defeat to Fulham at St Andrew’s while see them swap places with Blackpool and start the last week of the season in the drop zone.

However, they’ll have taken heart by the way Liverpool ran rings around the Cottagers on Monday night. The west London outfit had been making steady progress under Mark Hughes and the Welshmen will probably send his charges out with a flea in their ear after the defeat earlier in the week.

Match bet – Birmingham HT/Draw FT @ 14/1

Liverpool v Tottenham (4pm)

Spurs boss Harry Redknapp looks like a man under pressure at the moment after Tottenham’s capitulation this season. The north London club were being mentioned in the same breath as title challengers in the first half of the season.

However, since the turn of the year, Spurs have won just 7 out of their last 23 games in all competitions. That has seen Redknapp’s men tumble down the table and out of the Champions League qualification spots.

Contrast that with Liverpool’s resurgence and you get two teams going in different directions. The Reds have won six of the last eight in the league and victory for them on Sunday will see them confirm a place in next season’s Europa League.

While the end of the season can’t come soon enough for Tottenham, Liverpool will be keen for it to continue. Luis Suarez, Dirk Kuyt and Maxi Rodriquez have all been lethal in front of goal recently and they should have too much for Spurs’ shaky backline.

Match bet – Dirk Kuyt to score anytime @15/8

Arsenal v Aston Villa (4pm)

The Gunners title challenge finally fizzled out at Stoke last week but there is still something to play for in their final two matches. With Manchester City just two points behind in fourth Arsenal could find themselves having to qualify for next season’s Champions League if they don’t pick up another win.

Arsenal are very strong at home and with the pressure off you might see a bit more free-flowing football from Arsene Wenger’s men. For Villa, they are all but safe and that will be a relief for their fans when you consider they face Liverpool on the last day of the season. A 1-1 draw with Wigan last week won’t fill Villa supporters with confidence they will get anything out of their trip to north London.

Match bet – Both teams to score @ 5/6

Chelsea v Newcastle (1:30pm)

The first match of the day comes last on our Premier League preview due to the dead rubber nature of the game. Neither Chelsea or Newcastle have much to play for other than pride and places, with the title race and relegation battle over for both clubs.

Carlo Ancelotti will have a tough job on his hands to pick up his players after their defeat at Old Trafford, especially in what is likely to be a sombre attitude at Stamford Bridge. However, Newcastle’s awful away form should play into the Blues’ hands – the Toon having picked up maximum points on the road just twice in the last 12 matches. The two clubs drew in this season’s clash at St James’ Park, but Chelsea should end their home campaign on a high.

Match bet – Chelsea to win 2-1 @ 22/1

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Can Stoke upset Cup final odds?

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Bet on the FA CupStoke City (18/5 to beat Man City) head to Wembley on Saturday afternoon to do battle with Manchester City for the FA Cup – and Tony Pulis’ side, despite being underdogs, can be more than just spectators.

The Potters are not fancied by the bookies ahead of their first ever FA Cup final, and although this is certainly justified – they face a City side which has had millions injected into it – Stoke should not be underestimated and can certainly spoil the party.

Some questioned whether Stoke could recreate their home form – which they rely on in the league – at Wembley in their semi-final against Bolton.

But the Potters managed a 5-0 thrashing over the Trotters to send them back up the M6 with their tails firmly between their legs, dispelling any doubt that they would not be able to play at the national stadium.

The club will be disappointed to be waiting on winger Matthew Etherington for the clash – the 26-year-old has been instrumental this season for Tony Pulis’ side – but is facing an uphill battle to be fit by Saturday morning.

Blues boss Roberto Mancini even stated that Stoke will be a tougher prospect than semi-finalists Manchester United as it is Stoke’s “game of their life” and Mancini’s side are 11/2 to register a 1-0 victory – the same scoreline they managed in the semi.

However, the Italian believes that history beckons for City – with the club trying to break their 35-year trophy drought.

Mancini is currently waiting on the fitness of talisman, Carlos Tevez,  who is EVS to score at anytime, but has been struggling with a hamstring problem for the last month. However, City’s desperation to get Tevez fit will not fill the rest of their team with confidence.

The Argentinian striker only managed seven minutes in the 1-0 win over Tottenham on Wednesday night, and Mancini is willing to wait until Saturday morning to make a decision on whether to include him.

It is a real concern for City that without Tevez their frontmen are simply not scoring enough goals. Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli have managed just one goal between them in their last six games for the Eastlands-based club.

Meanwhile, Stoke’s Trinidad and Tobago international Kenwyne Jones (50/1 to score a hat-trick) has scored five goals in his last six games and Jonathan Walters (5/2 to score at anytime) has managed five goals in six FA Cup games this campaign.

There is no doubt that this will be a physical encounter with both sides possessing battling midfielders. Four of the last eight encounters between Stoke and Man city have seen a side reduced to ten men.

Both sides head into the final in good form, with Stoke unbeaten in their last five games while Man City have won four of their last five matches.

However, in head-to-heads the last four meetings between the sides have ended in 1-1 draws (1-1 after 90 mins can be backed 11/2).

The odds of either side winning on penalties is 11/1 and may just be a likely outcome, especially if it is nervy affair, which Cup finals so often are.

So expect a tight final with the Potters more than holding their own against their so-called superior opponents.

However, ultimately, we see a narrow Man City win to seal a great week for Mancini and co that will go some way to make up for the fact arch-rivals Man United are also likely to celebrating more success themselves over ther weekend.

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Theatre of Dreams awaits

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The League One and League Two play-offs kick-off this weekend, with the semi-final winners set to do battle at Old Trafford later this month. But who will be battling it out for promotion in Manchester? We take a look at the contenders (totesport – match prices).

Bournemouth v Huddersfield (Sat/Weds)

Huddersfield will go into the play-offs as the favourites to seal a place in the Championship having finished highest in the league, but how many times have we seen the third place team miss out?

Lee Clark’s men go into their semi-final on a 25-game unbeaten league run, which, amazingly, stretches all the way back to December. That run would have normally have sealed a top-two finish, but Southampton’s fantastic form saw them hold-off the Terriers.

Despite Bournemouth having an impressive recent record of just one defeat in five games, everything looks to point to Huddersfield. As well as current form, the recent head-to-head record also points to the West Yorkshire outfit, who have not lost a match against the Cherries since 1993 – 17 matches.

Both games in the regular season ended in draws, 1-1 at Fitness First Stadium and 2-2 at the Galpharm Stadium.

Huddersfield to qualify @ 4/9

MK Dons v Peterborough (Sun/Thurs)

Goals look to be the key to this League One semi-final clash, with Peterborough having the greater firepower and the more likely to reach Old Trafford.

Darren Ferguson’s men were the top home scorers in the regular season, with 69 goals, and in Craig Mackail-Smith, have the league’s leading scorer. Posh have lost just one of their last nine games, in contrast to their opponents.

MK Dons have been a surprise package this term and despite beating Peterborough back in March, look to be up against it. Karl Robinson’s men, who were beaten 2-1 at London Road earlier in the season, have lost two of their last four matches but in-form striker Sam Baldock is a threat.

Peterborough to qualify @ 4/6

League Two

Torquay v Shrewsbury (Sat/Fri)

Torquay sneaked into the play-offs on the final day of the regular season but will be looking to beat a Shrewsbury team still reeling from missing out on automatic promotion.

The Gulls form though is poor, stumbling into the top-six having failed to win any of their last five games, although they did hammer the Shrews 5-0 at Plainmoor back in March.

The contrast in form is there for all to see though, with Shrewsbury losing just one of their final ten league games of the season and winning four of their last five matches.

Shrewsbury to qualify @ 8/13

Accrington Stanley v Stevenage (Sun/Fri)

Accrington could be heading for their most famous moment since the ‘milk advert’ should they reach the play-off final, and they look a decent bet to achieve that.

John Coleman’s men go into the semi final on a 13-game unbeaten run, with their defence shining in recent weeks, Stanley have conceded just two goals in their last five league games.

Accrington have clocked up 15 draws on their travels and will confident of avoiding defeat in the first leg at Broadhall Way, with Stevenage recording the fewest home wins (nine) of any team in the top half of League Two.

Accrington to qualify @ 4/5

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Reading v Cardiff preview

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Cardiff’s nervy end to the season saw them slip to fourth place in the Championship table to set up a play-off semi-final clash with Reading. The two sides face each other at the Madejski Stadium on Friday evening and so we will take a look at which club might head back to Wales with an advantage (Cardiff & Reading 5/6 to qualify for final).

Cardiff looked the most likely club to join Queens Park Rangers in gaining automatic promotion to the Premier League, with just one defeat in their first 10 Championship games.

But they faltered when it mattered most, with a 3-0 defeat to Middlesbrough and a 1-1 draw with Burnley opening the door for Norwich to finish in second place in the table.

To add insult to injury their Welsh rivals Swansea sneaked into third place on goal difference, meaning that Dave Jones’ side bagged a semi-final with Reading and not, as seemed likely, with Nottingham Forest (Cardiff 11/5 – match prices 1st leg).

Jones is to be commended for the way that he has rallied his troops this term after the disappointment of 12 months ago and he will look to use that experience to spur on his men over their two encounters with the Royals and, he hopes, in the final.

Keeper Tom Heaton has recovered from a groin strain and should play, while Mark Hudson is tipped to shake off a knee injury to face Brian McDermott’s men.

Cardiff appear to have everything in place for a tilt at the Premier League and, with players of the quality of Craig Bellamy, Jay Bothroyd and Jason Koumas in the ranks, they will be a tough nut to crack for Reading over two legs.

But the Berkshire side were the form team over the last 10 games of the campaign, with seven victories and two draws and just a solitary defeat to Sheffield United.

They put together a run of eight consecutive league victories to propel themselves into the play-off zone and maintained their form to finish with 77 points – just three behind Swansea and Cardiff.

Momentum in any sport is key to success and therefore Reading should not be underestimated as they clearly have the bit between their teeth going into the post-season.

Goals should not be a problem for the Royals as they managed to bag 77 during the season, with only Leeds and Norwich scoring more in the Championship, but they welcome a Cardiff side who have not been beaten on their travels since losing at Crystal Palace on March 8.

Reading drew 17 games during the season and were solid away from home, with just five defeats on the road, and so they will be confident of protecting a lead should they manage to pierce the Bluebirds’ rearguard on Friday evening (Reading 13/5 to be promoted).

On-loan midfielder Mikele Leigertwood has been passed fit after recovering from an ankle problem and looks set to play in what could be a tight affair with so much at stake for both clubs.

Reading have experienced life in the top flight and are desperate for another taste of the action, while Cardiff have been the nearly men for a few years.

McDermott’s charges have been scoring goals for fun but it would be no surprise if this first leg was settled by a solitary strike, with everything to play for back in the Welsh capital on May 17.

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Forest face uphill task

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Nottingham Forest will be desperate to put recent play-off disasters to one side when they tackle Swansea City in the first leg of their Championship semi-final at The City Ground (Forest 13/10, draw 23/10, Swansea 21/10 in the match betting).

Four years ago, when Forest were languishing in League One, they seemed certain to be heading to Wembley when they won at Yeovil Town 2-0 in the first leg, only to suffer a stunning 5-2 home reverse to the Glovers in the return clash.

After that amazing aggregate defeat, Forest did at least bounce back by winning automatic promotion 12 months later, but they were to endure another disastrous play-off experience at the end of the 2009-10 campaign.

Billy Davies’ side were everyone’s favourites to see off rank outsiders Blackpool even after they had been beaten 2-1 at Bloomfield Road in the first leg.

However, despite being unbeatable at The City Ground in the second half of the regular season, including a run of 12 successive victories, they contrived to lose 4-3 to Ian Holloway’s inspired side, who went on to beat Cardiff City at Wembley to confirm their place in the Premier League.

Despite a few wobbles along the way, Forest finished the 2010-11 campaign strongly to see off the challenge of Leeds United and Millwall and clinch sixth spot.

However, they will find it difficult to see off a Swansea City side that have a notoriously mean defence and are 13/5 with totesport to keep a clean sheet on Thursday.

Last term, under Paulo Sousa’s astute stewardship, they only just missed out on a top-six spot after conceding a paltry 37 goals in their 46 matches.

Despite Sousa’s summer defection to Leicester City, the Swans have prospered this term under ex-Watford and Reading manager Brendan Rodgers.

Once again their defence has been solid – Rodgers’ side conceded only 42 goals as they finished third – but they have added some goalscoring flair to their defensive organisation, finding the net 69 times in comparison to last season’s tally of 40 goals.

Former Chelsea starlet Scott Sinclair (13/2 to open the scoring at The City Ground) has been in blistering form, scoring 19 times in the Championship this term.

He has received good support from Darren Pratley and Stephen Dobbie who have both netted nine times.

There has been little to choose between the two sides this term, with Forest beating Rodgers’ team 3-1 at The City Ground in September, before the Swans gained revenge at the Liberty Stadium in March when they won by the odd goal in five.

Despite the prize on offer being so vast, a high-scoring game could once again be on the cards, with 12/1 available on a 2-2 draw.

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