Monthly Archives: June 2012

Italy out to repeat 2006 feat

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Italy (14/1 to win Euro 2012) may be one of the traditional footballing heavyweights but, ahead of Euro 2012, football in the country is again being weighed down by match-fixing allegations. Will this potential big scandal affect Cesare Prandelli’s side in Poland and Ukraine?

Officials in Italy are looking into the possibility that several Serie A games over the past few years were rigged, while full-back Domenico Criscito was forced out of the squad last week when it emerged he was embroiled in the investigation.

The story has hit the headlines in Italy – and indeed across Europe – in the build-up to the tournament and many have questioned whether the Azzurri will lose their focus as they prepare to tackle an already tough Group C featuring Spain, Croatia and Republic of Ireland over the next few weeks.

The 2006 World Cup winners may have found it tough going getting out of that group anyway but their task may now be much harder because of the ongoing investigation.

Criscito has publicly hit out at the decision to axe him and he believes he has been made a scapegoat by the Italian FA. He is especially unhappy about Juventus defender Leonardo Bonucci’s inclusion despite the fact he is also under investigation but has not received an official notification from the authorities.

All of this has led to some to speculate Italy are in crisis and may well be facing another early plane trip home – like they did in a thoroughly-underwhelming 2010 World Cup campaign.

However, former national boss Marcello Lippi and ex-Italy forward Sandro Mazzola both believe the ongoing match-fixing enquiry could have a similar effect to six years ago when another investigation was the backdrop to the Azzurri’s unlikely triumph in Germany.

Lippi, who was in charge in 2006, said: “It feels as though they are going through the same experience as that of 2006. I remember that week in Coverciano [ahead of the tournament in Germany] was not easy for us and there was the fear of what people would have said of us abroad.

“But no-one said anything in Germany. I believe that as soon as the national team travels to Poland, their only thoughts will be on football, on training and on the European Championship.”

Certainly the argument that the developing scandal will effect the squad was given credence by their limp 3-0 friendly defeat against Russia over the weekend but Mazzola, who has tipped Italy to make the semis, is confident it can have a galvanising effect on the team and could be used as a positive (Italy 3/1 to win Group C).

“I think the national team was conditioned by what happened during the week in their game against Russia,” he said. “But in any case the performance was not good and they only had two chances of goal throughout the game.

“Regardless of that game, I believe the national team can be among the top four at the European Championship.”

Any squad with the talent of Andrea Pirlo, Mario Balotelli (20/1 – Top Goalscorer) and Antonio Cassano in it must be respected but the fear is it will also be a squad crippled by anxiety over the continuing developments back home.

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Hodgson needs to find answers

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England’s (10/1 Euro 2012 outright) preparations for the upcoming European Championship in Poland and Ukraine are now complete but, following Saturday’s 1-0 win against Belgium, it appears as if they have more questions than answers heading into the tournament.

However, this does leave England with a few positives, as probably for the first time since winning the World Cup 1966, the Three Lions aren’t being tipped for glory, with pundits instead being more cautious in their predictions, especially in regards to selection where there are still a number of spots in the side to fill.

Most notable of these is at the back where, following the injury to Gary Cahill on Saturday, it remains in the balance who will partner John Terry during the opening match against France next Monday (France 6/4, draw 11/5, England 7/4).

The obvious choice would be Joleon Lescott who was magnificent in Manchester City’s march to the title this season. However, the 29-year-old is left footed, meaning Terry would have to slide across from his favoured left centre-back position into the right side of the defence.

This appears trivial but Terry has been caught out on a number of occasions while playing on the right side of the two, most notably in the Three Lions’ defeat to Germany at the 2010 World Cup.

With Terry being arguably the country’s best defender, this could pave the way for Phil Jagielka to step into the breach and the Everton man’s versatility and pace would certainly suit playing alongside Terry.

Elsewhere the full-backs and the two central midfielders pick themselves but, further up the field, Hodgson still faces a number of dilemmas.

After James Milner and Stewart Downing produced decidedly average performances in last week’s win against Norway, Saturday presented Arsenal duo Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain with the perfect opportunity to stake their claim for a place in the starting side, but they both disappointed, meaning it’s still up in the air as to who will start out wide in Donetsk.

However, the most pressing issue is who will lead the line alongside Ashley Young as that could dictate how England play.

With Wayne Rooney out for the first two games, there is still a huge question-mark over who will start in attack with both Andy Carroll (40/1 Euro 2012 top goalscorer) and Danny Welbeck impressing in the warm-up games.

The pair have contrasting but equally devastating qualities with Carroll’s height allowing him to intimidate and dominate defenders in the air while Welbeck’s pace and movement allows him to slip in behind the opposition almost at will.

Both have done themselves no harm but the decision as to who to start with could make or break England’s campaign, especially if they’re still in with a chance of qualifying when Rooney returns for the final group game against Ukraine (England evens, draw 9/4, Ukraine 9/4).

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Stiff test for Irish finale

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The Republic of Ireland finalise their plans for Euro 2012 on Monday evening, when they face Hungary in Budapest in their final warm-up match. Giovanni Trapattoni’s men will look to extend their unbeaten run to 14 matches and further boost confidence going into this summer’s tournament.

March 2011 was the last time that the Republic lost a match, going down 3-2 at home to Uruguay in a friendly, and belief has grown in the squad, especially following the their qualification for Euro 2012.

The most impressive fact during that run has been the defensive record, with the Irish conceding just three goals and keeping 10 clean sheets in the process. With a group containing Spain, Italy and Croatia, Trapattoni’s men will need that solid base to give themselves a chance of progressing in Poland and Ukraine (Ireland 4/1 to Qualify from Group C).

Cynics would say that the quality of opposition during their recent unbeaten run has not been the best – with fixtures against the likes of Bosnia, Estonia, Andorra and Armenia. But the Irish have also recorded wins over Italy and Scotland, with draws against Russia, Croatia and Czech Republic.

A trip to Hungary should give us more of an idea where the Republic are ahead of the European Championship, as the home team also look to defend an impressive record (Match Betting – Hungary 17/10, draw 23/10, Rep of Ireland 6/4). The Magyars have lost just one of their last nine home internationals and are fresh from a shock 2-1 away win over Euro qualifiers Czech Republic.

Hungary are not made up of household names, but they do have a good team ethic and showed some of their quality in a 2-1 defeat to England at Wembley in 2010.

Midfielder Balazs Dzsudzsak, who plays for Dinamo Moscow, scored and claimed an assist against the Czechs, with Videoton striker Adam Gyurcso grabbing the winner. Meanwhile, Bolton keeper Adam Bogdan will be a familiar face to the Republic players and supporters.

Expect a number of changes in personnel and formations for the Irish, as they look to try some different things ahead of their opening group game against Croatia on June 11. Jon Walters (15/8 Anytime Goalscorer), Keith Andrews and Shane Long all started on the bench in the 1-0 win over Bosnia last week and are expected to feature from the start on Monday.

The last meeting between these sides was in 1993, when Hungary won 4-2 in Dublin in a friendly, although the Irish were 2-1 winners on their last visit to Hungary in a 1991 friendly.

The Republic would accept a draw this time as they look to continue their fine form and set themselves up for their big challenge at the European Championship.

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Euro 2012 Countdown!

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With Euro 2012 rapidly approaching, countries across the continent are finalising their plans ahead of the big kick-off next Friday. Co-hosts Poland and 2010 World Cup finalists Holland are among the sides in action on Saturday, with plenty of options available for the punters.

Denmark v Australia

Denmark were shock winners of their qualifying group, beating Norway to the sole automatic qualification spot in Group H.

However, they will have to raise their game still further at the finals, with Germany, Holland and Portugal – again – lying in wait in Group B.

The need to hit the ground running should ensure they take their friendly clash with Australia in Copenhagen seriously.

Australia will also see this as a key game with the first of eight matches in the final phase of World Cup qualifying taking place in Oman next week.

Key Aussie duo Josh Kennedy and Brett Holman are unavailable, meaning Holger Osieck’s men look weak up front.

For that reason, a Denmark win and clean sheet looks the value bet, with 2-0 priced at a handy 6/1.

Match odds – Denmark 4/5,  draw 23/10,  Australia 16/5

Poland v Andorra

Poland had the luxury of automatic qualification thanks to their co-hosting of the tournament so the players will be desperate for competitive action after two years of friendlies.

They will also be keen to erase the memory of their miserable Euro 2008 campaign, where they picked up just a point.

They should go into their tournament opener against Greece next week with confidence given their opponents on Saturday, Andorra, are ranked 205th in the world and finished bottom of their qualifying group without picking up a point.

Goals are where the value is in this fixture, with a 3-0 Poland win the value bet at 21/5.

Match odds – Poland 1/25,  draw 10/1,  Andorra 22/1

Norway v Croatia

Slaven Bilic’s Croatia were surprisingly beaten into second place by Greece in qualifying, but a 3-0 play-off victory over Turkey ensures they have the chance to go at least one better than their quarter-final appearance four years ago.

It is a side packed with talented individual players, but they face a tough task in a group alongside Spain, Italy and the Republic of Ireland.

Norway have not qualified for a major tournament since Euro 2000 and were narrowly beaten 1-0 by England in a friendly last weekend.

Norway manager Egil Olsen is a wily old boss who sets out his team to keep it tight at the back and they only conceded seven goals in qualifying.

However, they only scored 10 at the other end so a Croatia clean sheet is a tip here.

With the likes of Luka Modric, Nikica Jelavic and Ivica Olic in their side Croatia surely have too much for their Scandinavian opponents, with a 1-0 win priced at a potentially profitable 11/2.

Match odds – Norway 6/4, draw 21/10,  Croatia 8/5

Holland v Northern Ireland

Holland will once again head into a major tournament with plenty of backing to go all the way.

Their sides have always possessed talented individuals, but it is their ability to gel as a unit that has sometimes been questioned.

Bert van Marwijk appeared to do just that by guiding them to the World Cup final in 2010, despite criticism for their physical tactics, and they will be desperate to go one better this time around.

On paper Northern Ireland are facing a monumental task if they are to keep their opponents at bay for the full 90 minutes.

Not only are they ranked behind the likes of Guyana and Vietnam in the world rankings, but new boss Michael O’Neill has picked an experimental side as he looks to unearth a new generation of talent.

A Holland win is a certainty so the value is again with goals and a 5-0 win priced at 16/1 is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Match odds – Holland 1/6, draw 6/1, Northern Ireland 14/1

Portugal v Turkey

Portugal were forced to qualify for Euro 2012 via the play-offs and another tricky obstacle was put in front of them when they were drawn with Holland, Denmark and Germany in a formidable Group B.

Turkey reached the semi-finals in Austria and Switzerland four years ago but after finishing a commendable second behind Germany and ahead of Belgium in qualifying, they crashed out of the play-offs to Croatia.

However, Abdullah Avci’s men should provide Cristiano Ronaldo and co with a tricky challenge before the action kicks off next week.

There certainly appears to be a smaller gap between the teams than the 27 places in the current world rankings suggests so the draw appears to be the bet to make in this one – 1-1 is priced at 11/2.

Match odds – Portugal 8/15, draw 11/4, Turkey 9/2

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Rodgers a risk for Liverpool

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Liverpool (40/1 – Premier League Outright Winners 2012/13) have finally ended a very public and possibly embarrassing hunt to find their new manager and confirmed Brendan Rodgers as the man who takes over from Kenny Dalglish in the Anfield hot-seat.

Despite those in the Reds hierarchy, in particular chairman Tom Werner, claiming the Swansea manager was always their first choice, the way they seemed to publicly chase Roberto Martinez, and also Louis van Gaal , casts some doubts over the claims Rodgers was number one on their shopping list.

But it is Rodgers who all the Liverpool fans will hope ends their long-awaited title drought and end their fall from grace. There is no doubting the history of Liverpool, how great they were in the 1970s and 80s, but this Liverpool is completely different and anyone thinking their new boss can transform them into a side capable of challenging Manchester City and Manchester United straightaway is from another planet (City 11/8, United 2/1 – Premier League Outright Winners 2012/13).

Rodgers leapt to people’s attention when Jose Mourinho head-hunted him to run the Chelsea youth team, then the reserve team, and he took his first senior managerial role at Watford in 2008. The Northern Irishman did well enough to guide them to safety but within eight months his eyes flickered elsewhere and he was off, jumping at the opportunity to take over at Reading (11/10 – Premier League Relegation 2012/13).

It was a shocking time for Rodgers at the Madejski Stadium and he was given the boot before Christmas 2009 after a string of terrible results, and then he spent seven months unemployed. This was a period where he failed to get an interview for a League Two position he had applied for. Ask any Liverpool fan back then if they would ever want this man to manage their side and you would have got laughed off Merseyside.

Finally, Swansea (5/2 – Premier League Relegation 2012/13) took a punt on Rodgers and handed him the lifeline and that started a rise to prominence that resulted in him getting the Anfield hot-seat. It is true that he got Swansea playing great football and they have over-achieved during his time there, but it remains that Rodgers has got a massive job after only one season of managing in the Premier League and the pressures at Liverpool will grossly increase compared to the Liberty Stadium.

There is a lot of work to be done at Liverpool and it would require a miracle if he can get the current crop at Anfield playing the same type of football he won plaudits for in Wales. The likes of Andy Carroll, Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing have been highly derided and Rodgers will need to make the decision of whether to stick with the struggling troops or kick them out the Anfield exit door.

The Liverpool board are likely to throw money at the problem – like they have always seemed to do in recent years – and there remains the chance Rodgers could go the same way of Roy Hodgson.

If the Reds are struggling down the table come Christmas then the fans are likely to start screaming for the manager’s head again. The hardest thing Rodgers has to do is to calm down the expectations of the Liverpool fans – a top-six finish would be good, top four amazing, but winning the title nigh on impossible.

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Hazard warning for Hodgson

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Saturday represents Roy Hodgson’s last chance to have a look at his squad in action as England take on Belgium at Wembley before the real business starts at Euro 2012 in a week’s time.

It has not necessarily been the easiest of weeks for the England manager as he has had little time to prepare for Euro 2012 to start with, and has been forced to cope with the losses of John Ruddy, Gareth Barry and now Frank Lampard from his original squad.

Jack Butland, Phil Jagielka and Jordan Henderson are the beneficiaries of those injuries but the squad has obviously been weakened – and there will be those who are thinking Henderson would have done well to get into any other squad at the tournament, let alone the fourth favourites.

There is an underwhelming feeling for many punters going into the tournament regarding England, perhaps more of dread than anticipation, but at least the players will not be burdened by over-the-top expectations that usually accompany them in major tournaments – and which they usually fail to live up to.

Not many will be tempted by the 10/1 about England to lift their first European Championship title but things may look different following the weekend’s fixture.

Belgium obviously failed to get into the Poland and Ukraine showpiece but were given a tough assignment having been drawn in the same group as Germany and Turkey – and ultimately finished behind both, with a 1-1 home draw with the latter proving costly.

However, they are a nation that is seemingly on the up given the success of some of their stars in the Premier League and they could perhaps upset the odds on Saturday (England 8/13, draw 11/4, Belgium 5/1 – Match Betting).

Vincent Kompany has been an absolute rock at the heart of Manchester City’s defence as he led the Citizens to their first league title since 1968, while Thomas Vermaelen at Arsenal, Everton’s Marouane Fellaini and Fulham’s Moussa Dembele have also impressed this season in England’s top flight.

Perhaps more excitingly for spectators is a first glimpse of wonderkid Eden Hazard who, after a number of impressive seasons in France, is seemingly set to move to Chelsea at some point in the summer, having also been courted by Manchester United and Manchester City.

The 21-year-old finished off the season at Lille with a hat-trick and might well tempt those looking to invest in the First/Last Goalscorer markets at a price of 12/1, while he is 10/3 to score at anytime.

Romelu Lukaku (10/1 and 11/4) was not given much of a chance at Stamford Bridge this season but is very much one for the future and this appears to be a Belgium team that is definitely improving.

As it is a friendly it would be prudent to wait until team news is announced closer to kick off to get a better idea of the chances of either side but Belgium should be more relaxed as they have nothing else to worry about.

England’s midfield appears to be a problem following the withdrawals of Lampard and Barry, as Scott Parker has also been struggling with an injury and may well be rested on Saturday to keep him as fit as possible for the real business.

That means Henderson could well get a start in midfield or Hodgson could re-employ Phil Jones but it looks to be an area where England may struggle.

No doubt Hodgson will try and involve as many players as possible given that it is the final time he will see any in meaningful action, while it is also only his second game in charge.

The former West Brom boss at least got off to a winning if unspectacular start and he will be hoping for more of the same to give the squad a boost going into the France game on June 11.

He will try to make his side hard to beat rather than an offensive powerhouse but who can blame him – you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.

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