Monthly Archives: April 2015

Graham Hunter: A Catalan conflict can open the door for Real Madrid and a 9/1 treble

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Espanyol v Barcelona – Saturday, 3pm

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Right, so it’s a bit neck-and-neck at the top of La Liga just at the moment and we’ve six games left.
The top two might meet in the Champions League Final and they don’t particularly like each other.
It’s kinda tense.

Which makes Barcelona’s stroll across the city to Espanyol not exactly a … stroll. There’s a Spain Oddity, which might appeal to David Bowie, whereby if two teams finish on identical points the first criterion via which to separate them is – head-to-head. It becomes a little like a Cup tie. ‘Which team won more of the Liga meetings between the two and if it has been a win apiece then what’s the goal aggregate?’

Thus it is that if Barcelona should drop two points between now and the end of the season and Madrid win all their games they’ll finish tied on 94 points. The reason that Madrid would win the title in that scenario is that the first Clásico ended 3-1 to Carlo Ancelotti’s side while Barça won the second 2-1 – ergo Madrid win the title on a 4-3 aggregate over their nearest rivals.

I think it’s a cool system.

So what Madridistas are doing this weekend is sending positive vibes to the only other set of fans who dislike the Blaugrana just as much as they do – those at Espanyol. Just as a matter of interest, the last time Spain’s Primera Division was settled on the head-to-head rule was as recently as 2007 – Madrid winning thanks to a victory and a draw in the two Clásicos.

Espanyol fans will be dreaming, happily of their part in that when on the penultimate day, after Leo Messi had put Barcelona ahead with a Maradona-style ‘it was my head ref honest!’ goal via his hand, they equalized in the last minute and effectively cost Frank Rijkaard’s side the title.

It’s not identical this weekend because the Catalan derby is being played in Cornella, not at the Camp Nou. But there’s a hint of … ‘could we screw them up again?’ The hard fact for the league leaders is that while they’ve only lost three times in the last 24 away Catalan derbies [and since the Power8 stadium was inaugurated in 2009 they’ve three wins and two draws] not even a draw is guaranteed to keep them top.

In fact it’s feasible that dropping points here could cost Luis Enrique’s men the treble. Feasible at least.
So, how to call it?

In Barcelona’s favour – attitude, determination not to cede the title to Madrid, determination not to trip up here of all places, a good winning run, Suárez and Neymar on good goal form.

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on

Against them – the fact that they aren’t putting in 90 minute performances too regularly right now. A draw at Sevilla thanks to a major second half drop off, a thrashing of PSG in the making at 2-0 up by half time and in total charge surrendered because they drop into cruise-control for the rest of the match. Espanyol – their two great positives are ex Madrid keeper Kiko Casilla and ex Barça striker Sergio García.

Casilla says: “When it comes to this derby it doesn’t matter the size of your budget or your salary bill – it’s us v them and they aren’t the only ones with a say in who wins the league”. Fightin’ talk.

Los Periquitos have only conceded four times in eight matches and a draw’s not impossible here. Barcelona, on form, will win and stay top – Suárez and Piqué profile as possible scorers. Neymar? One in seven in La Liga, four in four all comps. But Espanyol not to be discounted – a 0-0, a 1-1 and a 1-0 are three of the last five results in this fixture. Barça have every important player available, Espanyol bring back Salva Sevilla and Juan Fuentes while Víctor Sánchez is suspended against his old team and Felipe Mattioni injured.

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Atletico Madrid v Elche – Saturday, 5pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile There were more good words than good play from Atleti in midweek when they lost the Madrid derby and exited the Champions League. Cholo Simeone refused to blame the referee for Arda’s red card, all the players who spoke mentioned departing the competition with pride, that they’d be back soon and more determined than ever. There was a ‘we’ve not let anybody down vibe’. Now we’ll see whether the painted smiles masked broken hearts. This is when the reigning champions need to prove that they gave their utmost against Madrid, that they left beaten but unbowed and that they are capable of not carrying any psychological after-effects into this match. Atleti’s four point lead over Valencia, guaranteeing them Champions League revenue again next season is utterly vital for this club and you can expect them to fight like tigers to protect it. You can expect the fans to show defiance by turning up and howling their support for Los Rojiblancos. But was there any damage done between Cholo and Griezmann when the in-form youngster was bizarrely removed from the game in midweek? Otherwise he should have goal solutions …. and it’s time Mandzukic, Torres and Raúl García came to the party again in that respect. Elche? Only two teams have scored fewer than them, only two have scored more than them … so how they hell are they within a win and a draw of staying up? Because they lose to the big guns and neatly pick off the weaklings around them – Cordoba, Levante, Almeria, Eibar. Only if Atleti are carrying a big hangover from losing to Madrid is this not a two goal win for the champions. Gabi and Mario Mandzukic, are back with respect to the Depor game – only Mario Suárez, Ansaldi and Cani are dropped. Get on Graham’s tips: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano – Sunday, 6pm

Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile Last week I suggested the big question was: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’ the only sad thing being that I didn’t say: right here! This’ll be a 1-1 draw! Different story here you’d imagine. Although the Europa League holders had to travel to and from St Petersburg this week and that doesn’t come without an impact on freshness of mind or physical tiredness the buzz of having eliminated Zenit, the really top quality performance in Russia and the fact that they are at home should be a positive cocktail of advantages.

Remember – Sevilla are 24 home games without defeat in over a year, they have a deep squad, they are desperately trying to get a finger-hold on fourth place and they’ve beaten Rayo 5-2, 2-1 and 4-1 the last three meetings.
Indeed while Paco Jemez’s side is fun to watch and has massively over-performed to be so high up La Liga they’ve still lost six of their last seven away matches and twice conceded six goal defeats in doing so.

Beto had a ‘mare for Sevilla and Sergio Rico should return, Pareja is out for months with ligament damage but Iborra, Reyes, Denis Suárez and Gameiro are all available to add freshness to Unai Emery’s athletic, hard running team. Both teams to score, Bacca, Vitolo, Gameiro all looking backable for the Europa League holders.

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Celta Vigo v Real Madrid – Sunday, 8pm

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Of course, even if the underdogs win the Catalan derby it’s never straightforward at the top of La Liga. In theory, Barcelona could suffer the embarrassment of dropping points to a cock-a-hoop Espanyol .. but then be rescued by the team which Luis Enrique made.

Madrid, fresh from their agonizing and tiring derby on Wednesday via which they sneaked past Atlético and into the Champions League semi final must visit the Balaidos Stadium in Vigo where they never get a pleasant welcome and where, last year, they lost. In fact it’s just short of a year since Los Blancos formally kissed goodbye to the title in that 2-0 defeat to Luis Enrique’s mob – both goals scored by Charles.

It was a Madrid team shorn of Ronaldo, Benzema, Carvajal, Pepe and which needed to put Raúl de Tomas, Burgui and Willian José on the bench. They’ve all gone on to great things of course …. hold on. No. And, symmetrically, this huge test of nerve and desire comes when Ancelotti will be without Benzema, Bale and Modric for sure. Marcelo returns and, just as with Barcelona in their match, if Madrid play near their top they can certainly win.

But it may influence how you punt to know that before last season the last time Celta beat Madrid at the Balaídos in La Liga was 2001. [Celta did win 2-1 in La Copa back in 2012]

In between there were six straight Madrid wins – no draws – but five of those wins were by a single goal. Three 1-2’s and two 0-1’s. Almost without exception it’s a hostile, characterful place with a fishing/industrial background and a blue-collar attitude to match the Celta shirts.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Complacency is usually punished. Nolito, as always, is Celta’s best and most threatening player although Larrivey may profit from the aerial ball into the box. That said while Santi Mina’s four goals this season all came against Rayo he’s a quick-footed talent whose reputation would soar if he scored here.

Madrid by a goal would be the percentage bet but go figure for yourselves what the impact of tiredness, tension and injury absences might do.

James Rodríguez is the shining light right now – not only talented and fully integrated but consistently behaving like a team leader. His link up play with Ronaldo and Chicharito make Madrid very tempting here. There’s enough to suggest that both teams score but that Madrid out-gun the light blues.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Graham Hunter: Real and Barca to come through tricky tests with this 17/2 double

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FC Barcelona v Valencia, Saturday 3pm

At the Camp Nou, just over a year ago Valencia stuck their leg out and Barcelona tripped flat on their face.

Effectively it was the defeat which cost Barça the title.

A win would have seen them pipping Atleti to win the league on goals scored.

Barça led 1-0, they pulled back to 2-2 but ended up losing at home to Valencia for the first time since Luis Enrique played against them in autumn 2003.

Camp Nou

In fact Los Che’s previous six visits had all been defeats and they’d conceded a whopping 21 goals.

Paco Alcácer scored the winner that day and it may be worth noting that he has 3 in his last 5 since returning from injury and 12 for club and country this season.

Both Celta Vigo and Málaga have managed 0-1 wins at Camp Nou in the last few months – mainly by playing a terrific, but exhausting, pressing game which capitalises on one of those rare days when not only do Luis Enrique’s team make a single crucial mistake in defence but, somehow, look nervy and imprecise in front of goal.

So, if you fancy Valencia, how to calibrate your chances?

Last week in Sevilla Barcelona committed two pretty horrible mistakes, Claudio Bravo and Gerard Piqué ending up with fingerprints on the crimes, to toss away a 2-0 lead.

But in Paris on Wednesday, despite regularly gifting the ball to PSG, Barcelona finished devastatingly well.
It does feel like there’s been a drop in concentration in using the ball – perhaps Valencia will have their scoring chances.

Lionel Messi

FYI: Leo Messi has played Valencia twenty times scoring fifteen goals [nine of them at the Camp Nou]. However he’s only actually hit the net in eight of those twenty matches – ie less than half the time.

His goals come in clutches, sometimes threes and fours. Thus, if he scores and you’re ‘in-play’ you may fancy backing him to do so again?

FYI[ii]: Diego Alves has always loved testing himself against Barcelona. Not only was he super in Barcelona’s 90th minute away win earlier this season [Sergio Busquets] he has often played absolutely unbelievably at the Camp Nou. Is he good enough to thwart Messi, Suárez and Neymar??

FYI[iii] Kick off times really shouldn’t be important in a grown-up world but, hey, astrologists still make a damn fine living from making things up in the newspapers so the world’s not perfect. Ergo, the last time Barcelona lost at home it was a Saturday and the kick off time was 4pm Spanish.

Just like this….. Again, if you are on this match ‘in-play’ don’t be fooled into believing that if it’s a draw with just a couple of minutes left, and with a return Champions League quarter final coming up on Tuesday, that Barcelona will ‘settle’.

They only have a two point lead over Madrid and nothing, nothing at all, other than a win here will serve if they are going to win the title.

Valencia choose from: Diego Alves, Yoel, Cancelo, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Vezo, Orbán, Gayà, Javi Fuego, Felipe Augusto, Parejo, André Gomes, Feghouli, Rodrigo, De Paul, Negredo and Alcácer.

Neymar is back on goal form, Parejo’s worth a small investment, Alcácer too. Major pressure on the league leaders. None of the three results would be a shock but … perhaps Barcelona to demonstrate how much they want this title?

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 7/5 

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Deportivo v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

It’s a central theme of Atlético’s title-defence season – key players missing because of suspension.

Not disastrous here, only Gabi is out, but he’ll be followed by fellow midfielder Mario Suárez on Wednesday against Real Madrid. All of which means that a pretty remarkable story should keep growing.

Tiago said his goodbyes to fans and team mates after the Champions League final having failed to renew his contract with Atleti – a deal with Chelsea was as good as signed. But the Portuguese never put pen to paper, financial terms and his fear about how much playing time he’d get brought things to a grinding halt.

His agent got back in touch with Atleti and Diego Simeone insisted to the men in grey suits that he be re-hired.

Nice call Cholo. The Portuguese should start against Depor, he’s played 25 games in la Liga this season and, with five, is third top scorer for the reigning champions in their league defence.

It’s also his best goal total for eight years.

It may guide you that in six of the last seven Depor v Atleti fixtures at the Riazor there’s only been a single goal victory margin, or no goals at all.

Atleti choose from:
Moyá, Oblak, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez, Ansaldi, Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Tiago, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Saúl, Cani, Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez and Fernando Torres.

No Mandzukic, no Mario, no Gabi – training suggests a likely XI of Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Tiago; Raúl García, Koke, Saúl, Arda; Griezmann

New coach Victor Sánchez brings back Luisinho and Juan Domínguez but Helder Postiga’s still out.

Victor chooses from:
Lux, Manuel Pablo, Álex Bergantiños, José Rodríguez, Lucas Pérez, Medunjanin, Juan Domínguez, Juanfran, Sidnei, Fabricio, Cuenca, Laure, Luisinho, Toché, Cavaleiro, Oriol Riera, Lopo and Fariña.

Hard and hostile for Atleti here – might they drop two points in a score draw? Not an outlandish idea I’d say.

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw at 7/2

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Real Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 7pm

The Málaga brand of football is pretty much like what they used to say about Guinness – sound as a pound on home territory, doesn’t travel well.

How Málaga need a widget.

In fact the this mob have proved the old Robert Louis Stevenson thing about it being ‘better to travel hopefully than to arrive’

Santiago Bernabeu

In 32 visits to Real Madrid’s ground their happy northward journey has ended, embarrassingly, without a single victory.

However, might the fact that Madrid have the ‘Derbi’ against Atletico in the Champions League on Wednesday give Javi Gracia’s sprightly, fun-to-watch team an edge?

Might it, also, make them a bit more chipper about their chances that Karim Benzema, eight goals in his last nine appearances against Málaga, is out injured?

How much do an away win at the Camp Nou and a home draw with champions Atlético [last week] strip away the ‘beaten before we take the field’ malaise which affects so many of La Liga’s minor teams at the Bernabéu?

Those are some of your decisions.

“The fact that Málaga won at the Camp Nou has focussed our attention on them, it means we’ll not take them lightly” Carlo Ancelotti promised on Friday

In midweek Madrid were thwarted by a superb Jan Oblak performance. Without the 22 year old Slovakian performing heroics Carlo Ancelotti’s men would have scored three, maybe four times.

Is Carlos Kameni, a little flappy last week, capable of the same? Having made a habit of beating Madrid while at Espanyol [three of his first four game against them were wins] he’s tasted nothing but defeat in this fixture since joining Málaga.

Thirty two conceded in fifteen games. If this helps your punt you can be wholly sure that Gracia’s team will play to win. They’ll press, they’ll try to pass the ball forward whenever possible and they’ll not abandon their front-foot, passing game Cristiano Ronaldo I hate to emphasise what John Cleese would call ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ but Cristiano Ronaldo is your ‘go-to’ man here. One of his best records is against Málaga – 13 in 14 meetings.

Might Modric be a dark-horse ‘anytime’ bet? He was pinging the ball at goal in midweek – shooting boots on. Should be fun, should be open … should be a home win by a two goal margin.

Madrid choose from: Casillas, Keylor Navas, Pacheco: Varane, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Carvajal, Arbeloa, Nacho: Kroos, James, Bale, Lucas Silva, Modric, Isco, Illarramendi, Ronaldo, Chicharito and Jesé.

Hunter’s Tip: Real Madrid to win by exactly 2 goals at 3/1

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Granada v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm

Glass half-full or half-empty for Unai Emery? After Thursday’s dramatic and draining comeback win over Zenit [2-1] he’ll be pleased not to have to travel too far to play Granada on Sunday. But he could probably have done without the extra ‘edge’ of an Andalusian derby against a team desperate to claw its way out of the relegation threat they face.

There’s also the extra buzz for what is an aggressive home support that Andalucia’s ‘big boys’, Sevilla, have only played at Los Cármenes three times in the last forty years. It’ll be like there’s a bounty on their heads. Regional pride will see to that.

Yet Granada have been surrender-monkeys recently – white flag at the Bernabéu when losing 9-1 a couple of weeks ago, a sea of white flags last weekend losing 3-0 at Almería

Your big evaluation here is: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’

Not here you’d hope. This is a mighty season for Unai’s squad and it would be such a damp squib if it teetered now.

Bacca’s goal against Zenit made it seven scoring headers from Sevilla’s players in their last ten matches. It’d be logical if their second half impact won Denis Suárez and Mbia starting places on Sunday. Each of them, plus Aleix Vidal, might be worth backing.

Finally, Sevilla’s league season only has seven matches left. I don’t know if I can hold on that long without a lame Dick Emery joke. So long as they keep winning I won’t have to reach for …. ‘Ooh they are awful, but I like them…’

Hunter’s Tip: Sevilla -1 goal at 12/5

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Graham Hunter: How Fernando Torres could line your pockets this weekend

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Madrid – Eibar Saturday, 3pm

“This is a banana-skin game,” Carlo Ancelotti said on Friday morning. With a straight face.

Well, frankly, you’re as likely to hear the Banana-splits theme played by the London Philharmonic Orchestra, conducted by Mr and Mrs Harmonic’s son Phil before you are likely to see Eibar winning at the Bernabéu.

Yes, yes. It’s not hard to understand Carlito’s intention. The European champions were duffed-up in the first half at Rayo Vallecano in midweek, they have no margin of error here and they’ll be without  the excellence of James Rodríguez, the order of Toni Kroos and the returning goal-power of Gareth Bale.

So, fine, avoiding complacency by warning about the threat Eibar carry, that’s okay.

But even though Eibar’s coach Gaizka Garitano was singing from the same song-sheet [‘One banana, two banana, three banana four…tra la la, tra la, la, la…] when he said this week: “People think we are dead and buried but there’s a lot of life left in us”, this isn’t the weekend they can be permitted to show that’s true.

Prior to beating Málaga on Tuesday the Basques had not won since January 10, at home to Getafe, and failed to scored in seven of 10 games. That tells a story. It may not be the greatest story ever told, but Easter’s past now.

What’s true, and has been for a couple of weeks, is that Garitano’s team is playing better. Making chances, making it worth watching them because they are pleasing to the eye.

  • If you fancy a walk on the wild side then Mikel Arruabarrena is, by far, their best prospect of an historic goal in their first Liga game at the Bernabéu. He has two in their last two games and was denied a third, unjustly, by the ref against Málaga.

Next best? Saúl Berjon – nice wee player.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Los Blancos aren’t yet on full ramming speed, will miss James in particular because he’s added cutting edge and verticality in their play since returning.

Also, they have the Madrid derby in the Champions League on Tuesday. However what showed in midweek is that if their silk glove is a bit tatty, their iron fist is in punching mode.

Watching them react, so powerfully, to the nonsense of Ronaldo being denied the most blatant of penalties at Rayo indicated that there is ferocity of spirit and an intent to win this title.

They should have a far harder afternoon than a week ago when hitting nine against Granada but they can be backed.

“We don’t care if Ronaldo’s had his yellow card rescinded and is free to play,” said the Eibar President Friday afternoon. Wrong!

Back CR7 to score, again, back Benzema, back Isco and, have a flutter on Ramos.

  •  Match betting

Málaga – Atlético, Saturday, 5pm

It’s just not practical to take a disparaging tone of voice when speaking about a match at La Rosaleda – even after Javi Gracia’s team lost a bit of steam in recent weeks.

Málaga can play, have individuals who’ll produce clever moments, the crowd is usually numerous and boisterous. [This match is sold-out]. So it’s a trap for the unwary.

However, the instinct to back an upset here, which would have been tempting during the earlier part of Atleti’s bumpy 2015, has diminished a bit.

Diego Simeone’s team went through a spell where they looked leg-weary, psychologically bruised and just a tad vulnerable to energy, organisation and ambition. All of which Málaga have been capable of providing this term.

But Los Rojiblancos can evidently see the finishing tape now, clearly.

It’s like the combined effect of knowing that their guru, their Pied Piper [What do you mean ‘who’? Simeon,e of course!] has renewed his contract and will stay next season plus the knowledge that they are edging towards guaranteeing Champions League football while playing the quarter final of that competition against a team they’ve beaten four times since August has injected pure adrenaline in their veins.

  • Since coming within 12 minutes of a 1-0 home win over Valencia on March 8, but then conceding, Atleti have played five times without conceding; beating Getafe [2-0], Córdoba [2-0] Bayer Leverkusen [1-0] and Real Sociedad [2-0] plus drawing with Espanyol [0-0].

Keeper Miguel Ángel Moyá is back from injury, so is Diego Godín, while Juanfran has served his suspension. Mandzukic and Raúl García are both still injured.

The negative about the home side is that their three recent defeats, and a draw in the last five games, have been against sides lower than them in the table – Granada, Rayo, Eibar and Real Sociedad.

Fernando Torres 800

On the positive side, Gracia was without two significant players when losing at Eibar in midweek – Samu Castilejo and Sergio Sánchez. They return while Sergi Darder, a doubt, makes the squad. Gracia will choose from: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Ricardo Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Miguel Torres, Samu Castillejo, Sergi Darder.

Back to bananas, there’s a slip-up threat here but back Atleti, just.

NB: Fernando Torres has five in eight against Málaga; Griezmann has three in eight.

NB1: Don’t look for a goal feast. In only FOUR of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs have both teams scored. Prior to this season the last three games produced only three goals

NB2: have a think about Godín anytime. Each of Málaga’s last two defeats have been 0-1 to back-post headers.

  • Match betting

Sevilla – Barcelona, Saturday 7pm

In life, which do you believe in more? The immovable object or the irresistible force?

Sevilla haven’t lost at home for over a year – since their city neighbours Betis won at the Nervión.

Thirty-one matches in League, Europe and Cup. Immovable.

Barça, in contrast, have won 10 straight away matches, no mean feat, since losing at the Anoeta in their first match of 2015. Irresistible?

The league-leaders carry some baggage to Andalusia – and not just the shadow of Wednesday’s Champions League quarter final in Paris.

Good though he was against Almería during the week, Messi still appears to be protecting his right outstep where he’s felt pain since the Manchester City game at the Camp Nou.

Neymar, dropped in midweek, is out of form and has been for weeks.

Contract talks with Dani Alves have broken down and his agent [also his ex-wife] stated that some of his defensive lapses recently owe to his mental state caused by uncertainty over his playing future. [He’s out of contract in June]. Way to impress the coach Mrs A.

But we have to take into account the fact that not since Alves scored the winner for Sevilla in this fixture back in 2007 have Barça lost here.

Seven wins and two draws in their last nine visits.

Lionel Messi

Unai Emery just doesn’t have a happy record against them either – wherever he’s been he’s found it super-hard, either in adversity or when on top in a game, to emerge with a win.

  • Eighteen matches, four different clubs, no victories, five draws, 13 defeats. What a chance he has here.

Bacca, having been rested at Levante, will start and is the best bet. Sevilla are pretty interesting aerially and while Barcelona have improved, radically, when defending set-plays they are by no means invulnerable. Mbia is fit and loves to score a header.

  • Only twice in 23 home matches this season have Sevilla failed to score, only three times in 22 away trips this season have Barcelona failed to score.
  • So: high chance both teams to score; fate says ex-Sevilla captain Ivan Rakitic scores for Barcelona; Messi’s sights are in with his free kicks and is due to net one soon;Bacca, Vitolo, Mbia, Krychowiak all might repay faith.

Barcelona are not on high form but have a really grim determination about them these days. For that, for Messi and for their eight year record in Sevilla they’ll start favourites.

But if you back a score draw you’ll not be alone.

  • Match betting

Valencia – Levante, Monday 7.30pm

Football is remarkable. Valencia have beaten both the Spanish and European champions this season, have a new, wealthy owner, brim with good new players, the crowds have been huge and vibrant … but they’ll enter the city derby with nerves.

Levante have been fighting relegation all season, are on their second coach this term and lost at home in midweek but there’s a genuine sense that they are both robust and capable of staying up.

But, Frank Carson-stylee, there’s more.

Levante, pretty remarkably, have three wins and two draws in their last six Valencia derbies. Given the relative resources and squad-calibre that’s a standout achievement.

One of the defeats of Valencia was this season – one of only two wins in their first ten home matches. Some kids.

And more. Nuno Espirito Santo may have been looking for the gypsy who’s thrown a curse or whoever on his staff broke a couple of mirrors.

Last week they played a weakened Villarreal side, one which went on to be pumped 0-3 at home by Espanyol in their next match, but Los Che squandered chances, played without enough zest and dropped two points. Major chance missed

Then, away at Athletic, they had Otamendi wrongly sent off and, winning 0-1, dropped two more points in the final seconds when Aduriz scored from a blatantly offside position.

Suddenly they are not only not third but they’ve gifted Atleti a three point lead.

Okay, Levante like facing Valencia. They absolutely require points for survival but Los Che have just three more home games after this one and, by hook or by crook, they simply have to win. On balance, just, it’s worth backing them to do that.

  • Match betting

 

 

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Graham Hunter: Vitolo can fire Sevilla to glory at 7/1 and why Barcelona can’t afford to lose at Celta Vigo

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Sevilla v Athletic, Saturday 3pm

Spain’s ‘miracle’ team versus Spain’s manager of the month for March. Sevilla [the former] tend to find Athletic [whose manager Ernesto Valverde is the latter] pretty indigestible.The Andalusians have only won twice in the last ten meetings with the Basques home or away. However to balance that – Athletic have just one win at the Nervión in the last 20 years.

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

What makes them pretty miraculous, I think, is that only FOUR players remain at Sevilla from the last squad which beat Athletic – and that was just two years ago. They buy and sell at an extraordinary rate such that, even taking Xavi, Iniesta and Vicente Del Bosque into account Sevilla’s sports director, Monchi, is one of the great figures of the last decade in Spanish football. And despite the revolving door policy, buy ‘em short, sell ‘em long, Sevilla are the Europa League champions [again!] and face Zenit in the quarter final in two weeks time.

What’s also strange about them is that those last two victories over Athletic in the last ten meetings have come with ten men – Fernando Navarro being sent off both times. So if you are following it ‘in-play’ and Navarro’s sent off, don’t cash in, double the bet!!!!

If you fancy the red card market then be advised that there have been six sendings off in the last ten meetings between these two. Perhaps it nudges you towards Sevilla that in 14 games in charge against Athletic, the team he played for, Unai Emery has seven wins and four draws while his seven games as a direct opponent to Valverde have brought four wins and a draw.

If you like to back the mode of scoring then here’s a clue – in Athletic’s last five consecutive single-goal wins [1-0 x three, 2-1 x two] they’ve scored three headers and a penalty.

In the last six Sevilla games Unai’s team have scored six headers and two penalties. You’ve been warned.

Single goal win for the home side, both sides to score – look for Adúriz, Vitolo, Bacca, San Jose – perhaps Mbia or Krychowiak for a little bit of value.

Graham’s bet: Sevilla to win by exactly one goal @ 12/5. Vito to score first 7/1.

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Córdoba v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

Gabi

President Carlos González is an odd fish. Last season he built a ‘time-machine’ into which Córdoba fans could file and see images of their ‘future’ in Spain’s Primera Division. Somehow or another, in the most Alfred Hitchcock fashion ever, Albert Ferrer got them to that promised land in the final seconds of the last game of the play-offs.

Suspense? ‘Hitch’ had nothing on it. Just over a handful of games later Old Carlos sacked Ferrer, texting him rather than having the ‘Cojones’ do even speak to the guy who’d taken the club up for the first time in half a century.

Now, on his third coach this season, he’s attempting to turn the remainder of his team’s matches into a mini-league of three teams. Currently bottom of the pile González argued this week.

It’s not the same finishing last as third last because, who knows, there may be some teams relegated because of their financial or administrative affairs and that could save us – you never know.

Sadly, in this country, that’s not the most bizarre idea so it’s an attempt to ‘buck up’ spirits ahead of the visit of the Champions.

His idea, clearly, is for Córdoba to claw and tear every point from their remaining opponents, not with much hope of finishing outside the bottom three – but in case anyone else is demoted for non-football reasons. Harder for them in that they had three sent off last time out, Aleksandar Pantic, Íñigo López and Daniel Pinillos, while the excellent Fede Vico plus Iago Bouzón remain injured.

They do have Nabil Ghilas, Edimar and José Ángel Crespo, fit again while, Fausto Rossi, one of the naughty boys [with Bebé and Ghilas] caught out on the bevvy after losing to Valencia, is allowed back into the squad. Ghilas is the goal threat.

simeone_840

But Atleti will fight still-harder to ensure that they don’t finish in fourth place at the end of the season while they also need to get back in character ahead of the Champions League quarter final against Madrid in a fortnight. Diego Simeone (above) has renewed his contract which will inspire all around him except Mandzukic, you’d guess.

No Miranda, still suspended, so Godín and Giménez at the back. Griezmann, by all accounts flying in training and full of confidence after being with the French team. In fact with Moyá and Raúl García injured take it that Atleti will be: Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Gabi, Tiago; Saúl, Griezmann, Koke; Mandzukic.

Trust in Atleti, trust in Griezmann, think about Saúl for value.

Graham’s bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2/5.  Antione Griezmann to score first @ 7/2

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Real Madrid v Granada, Sunday 11am

Carlo Ancelotti840

Vicente Del Bosque was a promising young midfield substitute the last time Granada won at the Bernabéu. And this season’s seven out of a possible 42 away points indicates that Abel Resino, historically an Atlético Madrid man, is in search of some sort of divine intervention. Sadly for him the kick-off is midday [Spanish clock] on Sunday when the big man upstairs may be pretty occupied with his dayjob.

You have to like old Abel, who knows that it’ll need a daft combination of circumstances is his team is to prove able.

Granada’s boss reckons:

I’m hoping the ‘FIFA’ virus hits Madrid. I hope they’ve arrived back tired after the international matches, that they think this is going to be a piece of cake.This is a Madrid which can scare you if they are inspired, but also one which has been pretty irregular in 2015, one which their own fans might be a little frustrated at…

Cristiano Ronaldo

Pepe’s out injured for Madrid but, really, they must turn this into a ‘by how many….?’ match.

Barcelona play at Celta later that night and Los Blancos, having just lost the Clásico, can cut the gap at the top to a point ahead of that kick off in Vigo. They can put real pressure on. Granada don’t know what the connection between the ball and the net is – it’s that sad, that simple. Only four of the squad have two goals or more and Jhon Córdoba and Youssef Al-Arabi are tied as top scorers on four. If you insist on picking a Granada any-time scorer then Robert Ibáñez is a tidy wide player picked up on loan from Valencia.

But this will see Madrid’s attacking forces very nearly at full strength. James Rodríguez is back and should start given Isco is suspended. Gareth Bale should have scored in the Clásico, did so for Wales and has looked bristling with confidence again in training. He’s worth a punt. Madrid should win by three and it wouldn’t be a shock if the BBC, [Bale, Benzema, Cristiano] all got a taste here.

Graham’s bet: Real Madrid to win -2 on the handicap @ 8/13

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Valencia v Villarreal, Sunday 4pm

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

This is a little gem of a contest. Valencia is a city which already has a derby match. It’s Los Che against Levante. Villarreal is an hour north up the coast … but sufficient bad blood has developed over the [recent] years to give this the edge of a derby. In the eight years since the Yellow Submarine won at the Mestalla [Manuel Pellegrini’s team facing 9 men when David Villa and Joaquín were sent off and taking advantage via Santi Cazorla, Giuseppe Rossi and Jon Dahl Tomasson] Valencia have been firmly in control of this fixture. Four wins and a draw, fifteen goals in favour of Los Che.

Right now Valencia are a force at home – best record in la Liga. The stadium won’t only be about 95 per cent full, it’ll be raucous, confident, aggressive – and it’ll drive Nuno’s players through any residual tiredness some have from their international duties.

Drawing conclusions from training there’s a decent chance, with Enzo Pérez injured, that he’ll repeat the XI which beat Elche away 4-0 two weeks ago. That would mean no place for Álvaro Negredo in a lineup: Alves, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Gayá: Parejo, Fuego, Gomes: Feghouli, Alcácer, Piatti.

Piatti, little buzzbomb that he is, is in the form of his life. Seven goals, equal with centre forward Alcácer, but also wonderful delivery. His dead-ball work is part of the reason Mustafi and Otamendi, central defenders, have seven goals between them. The German got two last time these sides met and either one of them plus Piatti or Alcácer are worth backing.

Juan-Carlos-Villarreal

Villarreal have, at least, had time to re-group after their horrible denuding at the hands of Sevilla. Three games, three defeats, out of Europe, seven goals conceded. Marcelino has a great record of making his team’s super fit, he’s a good motivator and he’s had two clear weeks with the majority of his squad [seven international players left, all came back uninjured] yet he has problems to face here.

Possibly enough to determine the result. Bruno, what a loss, is far off a return while Cheryshev, who’s added pace, aggression and goals, is also injured. Moi Gómez is suspended and Víctor Ruiz is a victim of the ‘fear clause’ in that he’s on loan from Valencia who won’t let him play against them.

With the loss of Gabriel to Arsenal that means that five of the ten players with the most Liga minutes for Villarreal this season will be absent at the Mestalla. Vietto is always worth backing, Musacchio is looking a set piece threat again but this should be a home win. Both teams to score.

Graham’s bet: Valencia to win & both teams to score @ 11/4

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Celta Vigo v Barcelona, Sunday 8pm

Luis Suarez

This could be a bit of fun. You know better than I do that football loves, absolutely loves, a back-story. Celta is where Luis Enrique (above) restored his budding reputation after disappointment and under-achievement at Roma. But he left, following his heart [not to mention his bank-account] after just a year to take over at Barcelona.

Already anyone who knows football is saying: ‘Intriguing, tell me more….’ For a shock it would need something beyond a neat storyline of Toto Berizzo and his players agreeing: ‘Right, we’ll show him!’ Therefore you can throw into the mix the fact that Barcelona will be without Javier Mascherano, suspended, Jordi Alba injured, and until we see how he handles the night [if risked at all] there’s the real prospect of this being a match that Leo Messi should avoid.

Badly damaged by a Martin Demichelis tackle nearly three weeks ago, Messi’s right outstep took another knock during the Clásico and, as a result, his foot was so swollen he couldn’t put on football boots while away on duty with Argentina – let alone play for Tata Martino’s side.

Should he really be risked here with the Champions League quarter final approaching and an away league match at Sevilla next Saturday to deal with first?? Just a little frisson of ‘extra’ is the fact that, back in November, Celta were the first team to beat ‘Lucho’s’ Barcelona at the Camp Nou. A clever, organised, counter-attack performance. They’ll need the same. Although their best player, Nolito [ex- Barça] reckons: “we’ll go toe-to-toe with them” that’s not advisable. High tempo, pressing – yes. Taking them on at football – big problems.

But another voice of experience, Andreu Fontas, also from the Barcelona youth system, reckons they’ve got the drop on his former club.

After a series of games like City in the Champions League, Madrid in the Clásico and then lots of their players away on international duty it can take a lot out of the squad psychologically so I don’t think this is a bad time at all to be playing Barça.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

If you routinely punt on Messi to score best to leave it until the lineup is out. It’s vital for Barcelona to win this if they want to be champions so even if it shapes as a bit of a test look to Suárez, who has not had international duty, and Piqué, who’s in love with scoring goals this season, as potential ‘any-time’ scorers.

Nolito has three goals and two assists in his last eight Liga matches and shares Celta’s scoring-burden with Charles and Larrivey. This could easily be both teams to score and there’s the whiff of an upset. Be guided by your overall view of the away team. If they are to win the title they mustn’t lose here, indeed by hook or by crook they probably have to win.

PS cynics may note that it’s the same ref as Barça 0-1 Celta. But he was good that day and has twice been generous to the away side since. Inexperienced but not a ‘Celta man’.

Graham’s bet: Barcelona to win and both teams to score @ 6/4

Bet Now on Barcelona to win & both teams to score

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