There is much at stake when Peterborough host MK Dons at London Road on Thursday night, with a place in the League One play-off final at Old Trafford up for grabs and the chance to play Championship football next season.
Posh might consider themselves a little lucky to still be in the tie following Sunday’s 3-2 defeat at Stadium:MK, with Grant McCann’s late penalty ensuring the Dons advantage is a slender one going into the return leg.
Darren Ferguson’s men were second best for much of the match but they have been a different beast at London Road and look set to justify 4/5 favouritism in the match betting, with MK Dons priced at 16/5 and the draw at 11/4.
A draw is of course good enough to take Karl Robinson’s men through to Old Trafford so the onus is on Peterborough to attack – and attack they will.
Posh have smashed in an unbelievable league-high 69 goals at this home this season, losing just three League One games at London Road, although they were also beaten by Championship side Swansea in the Carling Cup.
Ferguson’s side do also ‘boast’ the league’s worst home defence after shipping in 40 goals so spectators look set to be treated to another goal-fest.
Although Thursday’s game may not be a repeat of the weekend’s five-goal thriller, goalkeepers look set to be in for a busy night with over 2.5 goals priced up at 8/13, while 4 or more goals is available at 7/4.
Given Posh’s record, backing them at 9/5 to score in both halves is worthy of consideration, as is a Peterborough win on the handicap (-1) at 21/10 with a one-goal victory only good enough to take the tie into extra time.
Craig Mackhail-Smith has been on fire this term, scoring his 33rd goal of the campaign in Sunday’s defeat, and he has got to be looked at in the goalscoring markets (3/1 First/Last, 2/3 Anytime).
However, an MK Dons goal cannot be ruled out – the Dons lost 2-1 in the league fixture at London Road – but anyone looking to back a clean sheet (Peterborough 5/4, MK Dons 16/5) has obviously got money to burn.
Joe Lewis has been ruled out of whatever remains of the Peterborough season after suffering a fractured knee-cap at the weekend, meaning Ferguson will have to turn to Paul Jones in goal.
Charlie Lee of course is also absent after being sent off in the first leg so Grant Basey or Tommy Rowe will deputise at left-back.
MK Dons have been boosted by the news that Stephen Gleeson’s red card – given for the foul that led to the penalty on Sunday – has been rescinded by the FA, while defender Gabby Zakuani and winger Luke Chadwick look set to play after shoulder and arm injuries respectively.
The Dons of course have the edge going into the match but that could work in Peterborough’s favour and they look to have the firepower to get the win to secure a trip to Old Trafford on May 29th, much to the delight of one of the game’s greatest – Sir Alex Ferguson, a more than interested observer.
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