Tag Archives: Bayern

Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid may lose the battle but win the war with Bayern Munich

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Real Madrid’s record in Germany is just so atrocious that you’d forgive the hoteliers, bar owners and resterauteurs in Lisbon for getting ahead of the game and laying in stocks of Deutsche phrase-books, lagoons of lager and a herd of sausage meat.

Big spending, bouncy, brash, hungry and thirsty Bavarians are coming to town. Right?

But dispensing with the lies and damn lies and heading straight for statistics there’s at least some data to suggest that the reigning European champions have a chunky task on their hands tonight (7.45pm).

While Los Blancos have lost five and drawn only one of their last six visits to Munich every single one of those last six results (a quintet of 2-1′s and a 1-1 draw) would serve to qualify Madrid for the final if it were reproduced this evening.

The last time Madrid failed to score in Bavaria one of the main protagonists of the war of words around last week’s tie, Franz Beckenbauer, was wearing short trousers and boots and Los Blancos’ midfield play was being run by a certain tall, skinny Vicente Del Bosque. (April, 1976, if you feel the need to know).

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Franz Beckenbaeur 840

More heat than light

The heat generated over the first leg had a lot to do with tactics, philosophy, internal warring, possession and ‘sterility’.

Within Spain, certainly within the Santiago Bernabéu there was no frothing at the mouth about the fact that the nine time European champions decided, in advance, not to compete for possession and chose a strategy of counter-attack football.

Some of the Bayern players, Thomas Müller in particular, scoffed a little at the tactic – amazed that it flew so brazenly in the face of Madrid’s history, and in the knowledge that it would be unforgiveable at Bayern.

The ‘row’ factor centred on just that Bavarian philosophy. They are, by nature, a ‘sturm und drang‘ club – conflict, desire, antagonism, stress, hunger, pressure.

They play intelligent football, talented football – but not percentage football.

If they were a driver they’d be Ayrton Senna, if they were a flavour they’d be tabasco. If they were music they’d be AC/DC.

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Pep Guardiola840

On the (counter) attack

Guardiola was criticised (again) by Beckenbauer. L’Equipe splashed it’s next edition with the headline ‘Real Politik’ stating that Bayern had been taught a lesson in ‘real’ life and efficacy.

Guardiola’s possession football was mocked.

I thought that there was a dreadful, ill informed reaction to how Bayern played to the exclusion of proper analysis of what actually happened in the first leg – ie how close the German champions were to doing something special.

However, I think there has also been some confusion emanating from the first leg about Real Madrid and what brand of football they espouse.

Three of the Champions League semi-final teams last week played on the counter attack. But I’d argue that there was a clear difference between what Real Madrid chose to do and Chelsea’s (understandable) parking of the bus at the Calderon.

Madrid don’t revoke possession – it’s just that they are extremely effective with what they have.

ronaldo_freekick

You’re very Possessive

Take their Champions League record this season as proof.

Away to Copenhagen they won 2-0 (with 59% possession). A home to Galatasaray they won 4-1 (50%). A way to Juve they drew 2-2 (52%). At home to Juve they won 2-1 (52%). At home to Copenhagen they won 4-0 (58%). Away to Galatasaray they won 6-1 (50%).

In the first knock-out round they beat Schalke 6-1 away (57%) and at home 3-1 (55%). Then they beat Dortmund in the first quarter final 3-0 (58%) and lost to them away 2-0 (49%).

They compete for the ball, they don’t sit and speculate, waiting on the Mourinho doctrine that the more the other side has possession the more likely it is they’ll make a mistake.

But Madrid are quite confident that if they have somewhere near a fair share of the ball then they’ll outscore the opposition – sometimes heavily.

They are startlingly effective as evidenced by their 12 goals away to Galatasaray and Schalke on an average 53.5% possession shows.

It’s part of the reason that Guardiola, in the build up to this second leg, has been emphasising that he expects to require three goals from his men in order to go through.

The case for the defence

Instinct tells me that it’s worth looking at Madrid’s two central defenders.

During the three previous semi finals which Los Blancos have reached consecutively Pepe, for all his football ability, has been a ‘sleeper’.

Sent off in the first (home) leg against Barcelona – Leo Messi’s two goals followed instantly.

Two years ago against Bayern he foolishly and needlessly gave away the penalty from which Arjen Robben squared the tie at 3-3 in the second leg.

Last season he was, utterly ruthlessly, exposed by Marko Reus and Robert Lewandowski. The striker gave Pepe a lesson in clinical penalty box football and should have sent him a bouquet of flowers and an apology for humiliation when the dust settled.

Can he amend that besmirched record tonight?

Then there’s Ramos.

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Ramos 840

Wounded pride

Two seasons ago he was mocked, mercilessly, for his crucial penalty miss, skied over the bar, at the decisive moment in the shoot-out to reach the final at the Allianz Arena.

He was so furious, this Errol Flynn footballer, at the cruelty of the reception to that moment (people portrayed his shot hitting Felix Baumgartner’s head as he was preparing to jump out of Red Bull Stratos and the video went viral) that he decided to even the score by ‘Panenka-chipping’ the Portugal keeper in the European Championship semi final during 2012.

On Saturday, he was rampaging forward and tried to get on the end of two Ronaldo crosses against Osasuna before finally heading home on the hour.

He’s on the verge of missing the final, should they qualify, given that he’s on a booking. But his attitude and actions were those of a man (in my knowledge of him) who’s still got a thorn in his side.

Weakness or strength – the rampaging, Boys-Own, ‘I can do anything if I try’ attitude which makes Ramos such an attractive footballer to watch? (Albeit with Real Madrid’s record red card total)

You decide. All I know is that I’ll be riveted to the game.

Off the fence

The odds and the sane, calm part of my brain says: Bayern, at home, only one goal to overcome – they HAVE to do it.

The Sergio Ramos, hot-blooded, Celtic part of my brain (the 95% part) says … it’s Madrid to go through on a 2-2 aggregate scoreline.

La Decima beckons?

  • For Madrid to go through on aggregate 2-2 means they get beaten 2-1 tonight by Munich @ 7/1.
  • Ramos is 25/1 to score the first goal or 8/1 to score at anytime over the 90 minutes tonight.

 You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter on @BumperGraham

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Graham Hunter: Real Madrid + Bayern Munich = Goals. Guaranteed!!

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If the meeting of the irresistible force and the immoveable object in Madrid last night proved too much for your taste and you crave some adrenalin then the second Champions League semi final on consecutive nights in the Spanish capital may prove much less resistable.

Not only is Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich one of the world’s great grudge match, the two clubs have generally disliked and envied each other for generations, the 20 previous meetings between the Spanish and Bavarian royalty have produced 59 goals

There has never yet been a 0-0 and you’ll be damn lucky, watching this type of contest, if there’s no red card, a fan punching the referee or a player attacking an opposition number sufficiently wantonly to earn a 5 year band from European football.

All of which is readily discoverable if you look back at the knuckle-duster bust-ups in which the two clubs have indulged since Bayern first tipped Vicente del Bosque, Gunter Netzer and Paul Breitner out of the European Cup semi final (Ps Amancio was red carded) back in 1976.

A Long Bern-ing Rivalry

It was the club’s first meeting and since then Bayern have noticeably had the upper hand.

They’ve won 11 of the twenty matches, they’ve eliminated Los Blancos five out of the six times they’ve met at this semi final stage – the last time via penalties, back in 2012 with the contest tied at 3-3.

This is a roller coaster for which you’ll need a seat-belt.

Guardiola_Ancelotti_stats

Then there’s the two managers – each a debutant in this fixture, but neither man in any way inexperienced in terms of their rivals tonight.

Though Pep Guardiola has never coached a team against Real Madrid apart from his native FC Barcelona his record at the Bernabéu makes remarkable reading – 5 wins and 2 draws. No defeats.

In fact the last time Madrid lost at home in the Champions League it was to Guardiola’s Barcelona back in April 2011 – a week after winning the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona at the Mestalla. Spooky?

As for the longer-in-the-tooth Carlo Ancelotti he’s never lost to Bayern – four wins and two draws while he was coach of AC Milan.

So, what gives tonight?

Well, while Pep Guardiola has been making ‘this tie comes at the wrong time for us when we’ve lost a bit of cutting edge’ noises and generally playing possum the fact appears to be that he thinks his team is more athletic and can ‘hassle’ Madrid into mistakes.

To Xab’ And To Hold

Having taken a little longer than expected to fully recover from the groin surgery he underwent last summer because of a subsequent metatarsal injury, Xabi Alonso’s return to Ancelotti’s team has been fundamental.

It has given balance and order to midfield, it has protected the back four and it has allowed the Italian to deploy a 4-3-3 formation – which has been an enormous success.

Lately, however, it has felt as though the 32 year old packing in 36 games since late October has been a demanding schedule.

xabialonso

His reading of the game is as good as ever, his use of the ball exemplary but there’s been the feeling that he’s positioning himself a few metres deeper than usual as if to anticipate that opponents may try to produce driving runs away from him and he’s compensating just by remaining a little deep.

From Guardiola’s training session on Monday (remember Guardiola played that very position throughout his career) there could be heard the shouts to his players: “Don’t leave Alonso or Ronaldo alone for a minute – get on them all the time”

Pep-er Casillas Early On

The Catalan was also insistent that his players, particularly Kroos, Martinez, Ribery, Müller and Robben, break the normal team orders (which are to favour passing to a better-placed team mate over shooting) and strike at goal early and regularly.

casillas_robben

It isn’t a great deductive leap that he is questioning whether Iker Casillas, who has only been playing the Cup competitions and not the League campaign, might be a little rusty if he’s repeatedly asked to save testing shots swerving at him from distance?

While Madrid have won the last four home matches against Bayern they’ve only historically been able to eliminate their bête noir IF they don’t concede at home.
Other than that their record in Germany is, literally, appalling and they’ve lost four of the five semi finals of this competition they’ve competed against the Bavarians.

For the home side everything hinges not only on whether Ronaldo and Bale start, the former nearly recovered from hamstring problems the latter suffering badly from flu this week, but on whether they can perform at peak.

With them Madrid have tremendous speed on the counter, the power of two quite different free kick takers, danger from long range shots, real aerial threat and the importance of a tremendous partnership which is developing between the two players.

ronaldo_freekick

Two years ago Madrid showed, albeit in an aggregate defeat, that they are capable of playing at a tempo which the Germans rarely face and which, until Pepe gave away a needless penalty, looked like sending them through to the final.

Tonight the keys for Ancelotti’s side are: can he give the BBC (Bale, Benzema Cristiano) license to be creative; can his team keep a clean sheet and can they produce that roaring tempo which, every so often, makes the Bernabéu a daunting place for any opponent?

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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, a 12/1 tip and a zebra

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Graham Hunter byline

European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting tonight’s Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona to end all square.

{Find out Graham’s 12/1 tip by scrolling down and watching the video} 

There’s an old saying from the hard-boiled private detective fiction of  Raymond Chandler and his cronies which I love – “If you hear the sound of hooves coming, don’t look for zebras – it’ll be horses”.

Those writers used it to say ‘don’t look beyond the obvious suspect’ and perhaps it applies to Bayern v Barça tonight.

The Bavarians have stomped all over their domestic competition and gave Juve a slapping in the last round.

Barça are full of incognitos (is Busquets fully recovered from his groin strain? Is Messi properly fit for his explosive bursts of genius? Who will play alongside Piqué? Bartra? Abidal?) and they’ve played without their old intensity in the second half of this season.

So, perhaps it’s stupid to look for a zebra when we are going to see a horse?

Many of the shrewd bets must favour the home team. But I think there are some minor indications that the nag might be sporting one or two stripes tonight.

Barça haven’t lost in Germany for eleven years – five wins and three draws in that time.

Barça love to face teams who are going to give them a game – Philip Lahm’s words about going toe-to-toe with Tito Vilanova’s side will be very welcome. They get SO sick of having to unpick defences with ten men behind the ball all the time.

Teams who attack them give them spaces – and chances. If Messi is firing on all cylinders then, obviously, he’s the banker bet to exploit them.

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However I like Pedro – quick, a deceptively good finisher and with a couple of recent big goals (against PSG and France) to his name. It was actually against this keeper, Manuel Neuer, he learned a big lesson. World Cup semi final 2010, through one on one and with Fernando Torres alone beside him Pedro tried to round the keeper, his studs slipped on the arid African pitch and the chance for 2-0 was gone. Coaches for Spain and then Pep Guardiola advised him to shoot hard, low and early in similar circumstances. He’s done it and perhaps he´ll come full circle tonight.

If you are betting in-play then watch Busquets. Against PSG, both games, he was wildly out of form and Barça were far the worse for it. If that groin strain has fully healed and he fires on all cylinders the Spanish league leaders function much better, simple as that. In fact if he does fire up, I’d back them not to lose. Vice versa too.

The ref? Viktor Kassai is a straight shooter. Barça won’t be looking to him for favours. But this is a guy who brings good memories for them – that 1-0 Spain v Germany World Cup semi final (no bookings and no reds in the entire match), a red card for Paul Pogba for stamping on Xavi’s ankle in that Spain 1-0 France match last month, the Champions League final of 2011 when he took an hour to book anyone and Barça’s 4-0 win over Milan this season when, again, only four bookings (one for Barça, Pedro).

To Kassai’s great credit he seems to blend southern and northern European reffing styles – a rarity.

A fine game, Bayern deserve to start favourites, both teams to score. Four goals shared. Enjoy.

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King Pep is back — here’s what it means for Chelsea, Bayern, Barca, Mourinho, you and me

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Graham Hunter reveals the ripple effects caused by Pep Guardiola’s move to Bayern Munich

I don’t know of anyone who can prove Sir Isaac Newton was a Bayern Munich fan but I’m nearly sure the 18th century physicist had something like Pep Guardiola’s sudden decision to sign for the Bavarians in mind when he came up with this third law of motion; that for each and every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction.

Joy, bratwurst sandwiches, steins of strong lager and plans to dominate the Champions League forever in most of Bavaria.

Bitter tears, recriminations, thousand-yard stares and loud ‘why oh, oh, whys’ in Russian and Arabic haunting the Premier League.

That sort of thing.

So if Pep Guardiola (41) is the pebble which breaks the water’s surface and sends ripples spreading out in all directions — who all gets their feet wet?

Rafa Benitez

BOO, HISS: Abramovich has been left with Rafa Benitez at Chelsea, but not for long

#1. What happens now at Chelesa with Rafa Benitez and will Abramovich leave?

You have to wonder whether comrade Abramovich bent a few solid gold teaspoons in impotent rage yesterday, pushed away the side plate of beluga caviar and kicked the cat?

The Russian’s desire to import Barça-style football to Stamford Bridge is well established and having failed to persuade Guardiola last May the door was left firmly open for the Catalan to step in, and earn wealth beyond any normal man’s dreams, from this summer onwards.

Rafa Benitez’s interim appointment until the end of this season spoke volumes about the Chelsea owner’s confidence that by buying diminutive, technically gifted players like Oscar, Hazard, Mata and, I hear, Isco in the next transfer market he could sway Guardiola.

Txiki Begiristain, now in charge of Manchester City’s football direction but once Guardiola’s boss at Barça also said “no” to Abramovich. That’s not a good indication of how much these smart, successful football philosophers trust Chelsea’s strategy and consistency under Abramovich’s rule.

Nor did Benitez pick a particularly good night for his team to draw 2-2 with relegation strugglers Southampton. Booed off the pitch after a performance which means the European Champions have now won just one of their seven home Premier League matches under the Spaniard can only have served to implant another thorn in Abramovich’s side.

If either the Russian wants shot of Benitez by the end of the season or if the former Real Madrid youth team coach gets the call to return to the Bernabéu then what is the Chelsea owner left with?

Carlo Ancelotti’s title win wasn’t sufficient to appease him, Roberto Di Matteo’s remarkable Champions League odyssey had a five month feel-good factor and now Guardiola has chosen a walk near the Black Forest ahead of walking down the King’s Road. (With apologies to all fans of Horst Jankowski and the mod band Squire)

Where does Abramovich turn? Is it feasible that with the fans booing the club for its treatment of Frank Lampard, for the sacking of Di Matteo, for the run of sterile home performances and now with the rejection of Guardiola stinging worse than a paper-cut the Russian billionaire might, just, start to feel his comittment to the club ebbing away?

Sergio Busquets

CONTRACT TIME: Sergio Busquets could fancy a move north. And bring his pepper with him

#2. Who will be the first Barcelona player to move to Bayern?

Obviously, there were always going to be repercussions at Guardiola’s Alma Mater.

The first came for poor old Tito Vilanova on Wednesday night, after Barça’s 2-2 draw against 10-man Málaga, when his press conference was pretty much hijacked by Spanish, Catalan, Italian and German journalists. All wanted to ask him about his friend and former boss signing for the Bavarians more than about the surprise home draw in the Copa del Rey quarter final.

There wasn’t any doubting Vilanova’s sincerity when, in order, he stated that a) he hadn’t known anything about it despite having met Guardiola in New York last week b) he was utterly delighted that a force for good in football was returning to the top level of the European game and c) that Bayern appeared a smart choice for Pep given that it was one of the all-time great football clubs.

But it didn’t take long for him to look a little piqued that the tantalising cup quarter final was being relegated to second place … or that Guardiola’s every move at Bayern looms as being a subject for every fourth or fifth question of each damn press conference next season.

More seriously, of course, there is the question about whether any key men at the Camp Nou — technical staff or stellar playing talents — might migrate and fly north in the summer?

Victor Valdés is in the throes of contract re-negotiations as is Sergio Busquets. The Barça Academy is full of glowing young tyro-talents — prime for plucking by Pep.

Normally Barça treat all that as an occupational hazard of forming exceptional young players and haggle for big fees which are then pumped back into youth development.

But it was only 48 hours ago that FCB President Sandro Rosell alleged Manchester City had been attempting to wave petrodollars in the direction of some Barça talent. Whether his attempt to boom out a ‘hands-off’ message was convincing remains to be seen.

If I were either the agent of Valdés, Busquets or anyone in line for an imminent contract renewal I’d be dancing a feverish jig of joy right now to the tune of ‘We’re in the money, we’re in the money…”

Jose Mourinho

SPECIAL ONE: Difficult times for Jose Mourinho at Real and Bayern are a huge foe

#3. Will Jose move to Germany just to get piss Pep off?

Now the Special One has always had a devilish sense of humour and, equally, he’s always boasted about being the only man capable of picking off major trophies in Portugal, England, Italy and Spain. So perhaps next season he’ll head-hunt Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth, demand the manager’s job and storm into the Bundesliga title fight just to get under Pep’s skin again. Don’t pretend you weren’t already thinking about him doing something like that.

As for the ripples in the pond reaching President Pérez’s toes, it might not be a bad thing. Bayern are already Madrid’s most redoutable European foe.

And not just because of Los Blancos’ elimination at the hands of FCB in the Champions League semi final last April. Of Madrid’s twenty Champions’ Cup meetings with Bayern they’ve only won seven and the goals scored are 33-26 in the Bavarian’s favour.

So for them to add the arch anti-Madridista in Guardiola, with the guarantee that Bayern’s attention to detail and ruthlessness when it comes to winning trophies will increase, it must seem a trifle ominous to the President of the Spanish champions.

Moreover Bayern, like Barça, have a guiding football and business philosophy which is starkly different to Madrid’s and the Bundesliga leaders also put enormous faith in their own youth development policies. Time for Florentino to look and learn?

And finally…

Javi Martinez

THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER: Pep can get the best out of Javi Martinez

#4. The situation for the Bayern squad, Javi Martinez and Spain

It’s simple to explain why Bayern is a natural fit for Guardiola. Ambitious, well-run, attentive to detail, a club with a Bavarian identity rather than German just as Barça feels itself firstly as a Catalan institution rather than a Spanish outfit. It’s also pretty clear what Guardiola brings to the party.

Basically this is all, ‘winning machine gets Formula One petrol in its engine — GO! GO! GO!’ as Murray Walker used to screech.

But there will be some stalled engines. Guardiola is maniacal about detail, quite right too. His demands are high and they are incessant. Without question he will encounter one or two at Bayern who either think, or worse still say: “Es tut mir leid, aber das ist nicht, wie wir die Dinge hier tun.”

Which, roughly, means: “That’s all very well pal but that’s not the way we do things around here you know.”

A deadline missed, a little bit of larking around during training, a stretching exercise only 95% completed, a late night ahead of a match… too many appearances in sponsors’ adverts.

If anyone at Bayern Munich’s Säbener Straße training centre doubts what kind of tightening of the leash is coming they need only phone Samuel Eto’o, Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Yaya Touré.

As for Javi Martínez, I suspect good times lie ahead. His €40m price tag has occasionally chafed this season. Hands up anyone who is totally shocked?

Okay, please leave the classroom.

But he now fulfills the right side of the two-man midfield, with Bastian Schweinsteiger, in retiring manager Jupp Heynckes’ regular 4-2-3-1 formation.

However, there could be no better ex-midfielder to become maestro to the talented, athletic Basque who can look closely at Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets now and believe: “I’m capable of making them fight much harder for their places in the world champions’ starting XI.”

I’m certain their shared language, ability, outlook and professionalism will unite Guardiola and Martínez, to the great benefit of the latter.

Then, dear reader, there is you and I…

Pep Guardiola

RETURN OF THE KING: Whatever way you look at it, Pep Guardiola’s comeback is good for football

Neutral or partisan, German, Spanish, Catalan, Bavarian, Scottish, English, Irish or Welsh we should all be thrilled to the core that the beautiful game has one of his most attractive participants back again.

Viel Glück Herr Guardiola.

  • Graham Hunter on La Liga for the Paddy Power Blog
  • Betting: Bundesliga
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Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.


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BATE bid to pinch Bayern

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BATE Borisov are available at a huge price of 8/1 to build on their impressive away victory over Lille in the opening round of fixtures and beat Bayern Munich, priced up 4/11 to win, when the two sides clash in the Champions League in Belarus on Tuesday (totesport – match prices).

The Belarussian champions stunned their French hosts on Match-day 1 with an accomplished performance to get their European Group F campaign off to the perfect start.

Bayern, meanwhile, were far from convincing in victory over Valencia in their opening game, and they could find it tough in Eastern Europe.

A draw price of 4/1 offers value for this encounter, but, at 8/1, and with wind behind their sails, BATE Borisov are worth consideration.

Elsewhere, Benfica will be looking to cause an upset against their Iberian rivals when Barcelona visit the Estadio da Luz on Tuesday.

The Portuguese side earned a draw at Celtic Park on Match-day 1 and will fancy their chances of recording a first victory in Group G in their first match of the campaign on home soil.

Benfica are priced at 5/1 to win this one, with the draw quoted at 16/5, and Barca the overwhelming favourites to make it two wins from two, at 4/7.

It’s difficult to see past a win for the Catalan giants in this one, but if Benfica can get off to a quick start then Tito Vilanova’s men may be happy to settle for the draw.

Elsewhere, there’s an intriguing tie in Turkey as Benfica’s Portuguese rivals Braga travel to face Galatasaray.

An intimidating trip at the best of times, the hosts are the 10/11 favourites to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford and earn the win they need to keep their hopes of qualification alive.

Braga head into the game following an embarrassing home defeat to Cluj, but despite odds of 10/3, it is difficult to imagine the visitors coming away from the Turk Telekom cauldron with three points.

The draw, available at 5/2, may appeal, but 10/11 on Galatasaray to win is where the value lies for this encounter.

Two giants of European football go head to head in Holland on Wednesday, meanwhile, as Ajax welcome Real Madrid to the Amsterdam Arena.

Though Ajax are not the force they once were, this tie carries plenty of significance for the Dutch outfit and, at a price of 7/1 to win the game, they are pretty backable.

A narrow defeat to Dortmund ensured a pointless start to Ajax’s European campaign, and three points against Real would be greeted with euphoria by the home supporters.

At 4/9, Real are the overwhelming favourites for this one, but it could be a lot closer than many experts reckon, and, with the draw available at 7/2, this is another clash that offers plenty of value for money for punters.

We round things off with Porto’s game against PSG in Group A, where Carlo Ancelotti will be looking to make another strong statement following their 4-1 victory over Dynamo Kiev in their opening fixture.

And, at a price of 9/4 to make it two from two, a victory for the team from the French capital could prove lucrative for punters prepared to put their faith in Europe’s definitive ‘pretenders to the throne’.

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Bayern and Inter to progress

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Bayern Munich and Inter Milan must both overturn 1-0 first-leg defeats in the Champions League on Tuesday but should not be dismissed on home soil on what promises to be another night of European drama.

Bayern Munich v FC Basel

Bayern Munich bounced back domestically when demolishing Hoffenheim 7-1 on Saturday and their impressive home record in Europe makes them difficult to oppose (Bayern Munich 1/2, FC Basel 6/4 – To Qualify).

The Bavarians have built up an impressive run of 11 wins in 12 Champions League matches at the Allianz Arena and also have a 100 per cent home record in three games against Swiss visitors.

True, they were dealt a shock when Valentin Stocker’s 86th-minute goal at St. Jakob-Park condemned them to a 1-0 first-leg defeat, but club officials have already stressed there can be no more excuses (Bayern 1/5, draw 9/2, FC Basel 9/1 – 90 Minutes).

“That will give us a boost. I am confident the squad has that hunger again,” said Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes after the Hoffenheim rout. “That was important for Tuesday.”

Another incentive for the Bundesliga giants is the fact that Munich will host the Champions League final on May 19.

“Basel is a very important game for the way the rest of the season will run. We have to do that again against Basel,” Munich president Uli Hoeness told German television channel ZDF.

Arjen Robben, Mario Gomez (5/2 – First Goalscorer) and Jerome Boateng are all nursing knocks but are expected to play, while Germany international Bastian Schweinsteiger came on for the final 20 minutes against Hoffenheim – over a month after he tore ankle ligaments.

Basel should not be dismissed given that they were undefeated on their travels in the group stage, holding Manchester United and Benfica and beating FC Otelul Galati – but their record in Germany is less encouraging, with one win, two draws and three defeats.

The return leg offers Basel livewire Xherdan Shaqiri (10/3 – Anytime Scorer), who has signed a pre-contract agreement with Bayern, the chance to showcase his talents in front of his future employers.

Inter Milan v Marseille

Inter Milan ended a run of nine games without a win in all competitions with a 2-0 victory against Chievo in Verona on Friday and can edge what should be a close encounter against Didier Deschamps’ strugglers (Inter Milan evens, draw 9/4, Marseille 9/4 – 90 Minutes).

The Nerazzurri have already beaten French opposition at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season, prevailing 2-1 against Lille on match day four, and their overall home record against Ligue 1 clubs is W5 D3 L3.

Friday’s win reduced under-pressure coach Claudio Ranieri to tears and Inter will be expected to progress in front of their home fans – but must recover from Andre Ayew’s injury-time header in France on February 22.

Diego Milito (3/2 – Anytime Scorer), who scored in stoppage-time, has urged his team-mates to use the Chievo win as a catalyst for an end-of-season flourish and they can draw comfort from winning over half – 15 out of 28 – of Uefa competition ties in which they lost the first leg away from home.

He told Sky Sports Italia: “Tuesday’s match is massive and we’re desperate to do well. And we’d then have everything to play for – this team has already shown it’s capable of going all the way.”

Marseille’s form has nosedived since beating Inter at Stade Velodrome and they have not scored in four Ligue 1 defeats since their first-leg success.

Deschamps was unbeaten against the Nerazzurri as a player, but Marseille have not been further than the last 16 since lifting the trophy in 1993 and their current form means that statistic is likely to stay unchanged.

Tuesday’s recommendation is a Bayern Munich and Inter Milan ‘To Qualify’ double which pays better than 3/1.

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Bayern to get back on track

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The Champions League continues on Wednesday with Bayern Munich aiming to bounce back from an indifferent domestic performance on Saturday when they travel to face Basel, while Marseille and Inter Milan clash in France for what should be the tighter of the two first-leg round of 16 ties.

FC Basel v Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich head into Wednesday’s round of 16 first-leg clash with Basel following a desperate performance against Freiburg on Saturday. The German giants ambled to 0-0 stalemate away to the Bundesliga’s bottom side. The result sees them slip to third and lose ground on pace-setters Borussia Dortmund but they are well-fancied to bounce back from the setback and 4/7 to return home from Switzerland with a victory.

Director of sport Christian Nerlinger described Saturday’s match as a “sobering experience” and it would be unwise to back against the players getting their season back on track at the expense of the Swiss champions.

But Basel will head into the match in confident mood and have within their ranks a potent attacking weapon. Alexander Frei tormented Bundesliga defences for three years with previous club Borussia Dortmund, and has netted five times already in the Champions League this season. At 15/8 the 32-year-old is good value to add to his tally and score any time during his re-acquaintance with old rivals.

The transfer of Xherdan Shaqiri from Basel to Bayern, effective from this summer, adds extra interest to this tie and, at 11/4 to score any time for Basel, the Kosovan-born Swiss international is worth consideration.

Marseille v Inter Milan

Elsewhere, Marseille’s home stalemate against Valenciennes on Saturday suggests they are not quite hitting their straps ahead of Wednesday’s clash with Inter Milan. The French outfit are 12 points adrift of pace-setters Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 and they scraped through to the knock-out stages of the Champions League, winning just one of their three home ties in Group F.

But in truth there is little between these two sides. Inter Milan’s 3-0 home defeat to Bologna on Friday re-affirmed their domestic shortcomings this term and, following their elimination from the Coppa Italia, the Champions League represents manager Claudio Ranieri’s last hope of delivering a trophy this season.

Marseille’s come-from-behind victory away at Borussia Dortmund sent them through to the last 16 and added momentum to their European campaign, while Inter Milan were undefeated away from home as they qualified for the last 16 as winners of Group B. Inter will prove difficult to beat, though Marseille’s home form in domestic competition has been good, with just one defeat in 13 and only eight goals conceded.

With this in mind, the draw at 9/4 looks good value, as does the 0-0 correct score selection at 11/2.

Andre Ayew and Loic Remy have netted twice in the Champions League for Marseille, though top domestic scorer Remy misses this clash with a hamstring injury. For Inter, Argentine marksmen Diego Milito is the danger-man, although he has found it difficult to replicate his domestic goal-scoring form in Europe, netting just once.

With this in mind, those who expect to see goals tomorrow evening might consider Marseille’s Ayew, who is not bad value at 11/2 to net first on Wednesday.

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Barca, Bayern & Juve sitting pretty

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As they approach the winter break, Barcelona, Bayern Munich (1/3 German Bundesliga 2011/2012 Outright) and Udinese (10/1 Serie A 2011/2012 Outright) made significant moves in their domestic title chases at the weekend while Juventus have a chance to return to the Serie A summit tonight against injury-hit Roma.

Barcelona’s 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu on Saturday night brought them back on to level points with their title rivals Real Madrid, although Jose Mourinho’s side have a match in hand.

However, the psychological damage that Barca’s win inflicted on Madrid minds will be measured in the wees to come – making it possibly fortunate for Real that La Liga shuts down for three weeks after this weekend’s round of fixtures.

In Germany, Bundesliga favourites Bayern won 2-1 away at Stuttgart while title holders Borussia Dortmund failed to beat struggling Kaiserslautern – all but ensuring that Jupp Heynckes’ side will be the winter champions.

Bayern hold a three-point lead and 10-goal advantage over Dortmund going into the last round of fixtures this weekend with Bayern at home to Cologne on Friday night.

Schalke are only three points behind Bayern ahead of their clash with Werder Bremen on Saturday after hitting a rich vein of form which has seen them take 16 points from the last seven Bundesliga matches.

Juventus (6/4 – Serie A Outright 2011/2012) face Roma at the Stadio Olimpico tonight as Antonio Conte attempts to capitalise on a weekend slip-up from AC Milan, who drew 2-2 with Bologna.

Napoli also lost ground when they only managed a 1-1 draw away to lowly Novara while Inter, down in 10th place, already appear to be out of the title race.

Juventus (23/20 – Match Prices, Roma 5/2, draw 11/5) will be without injured ex-Roma striker Mirko Vucinic but Conte has a wealth of attacking options at his disposal with red hot striker Alessandro Matri (9/2 – First Goalscorer) and Italian international Simone Pepe expected to start.

This match could be the last-ever Serie A clash between two ageing gods of Italian football with Juventus legend Alessandro Del Piero hoping to make an impact off the bench while Roma icon Francesco Totti is fit again after ankle trouble.

But under-fire Roma coach Luis Enrique is struggling for numbers at the back and may even press midfielder Daniele De Rossi into action as an emergency centre-back with Simon Kjaer and Marco Cassetti having joined the long list of injured Giallorossi defenders.

Nicolas Burdisso, David Pizarro and Fabio Borini are also injured while defender Juan, midfielder Fernando Gago and striker Bojan Krkic are suspended after picking up red cards in Roma’s 3-0 defeat to Fiorentina last week.

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Bayern can scupper City hopes

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Both Manchester clubs go into their final Champions League group games on Wednesday still unsure whether they will make the knockout stages. United are in the stronger position, with City’s fate out of their own hands and facing a tough looking clash against Bayern Munich (totesport – Champions League).

Manchester City v Bayern Munich

Many expected big-spending City (9/4 To Qualify) to take the Champions League by storm this season, but it’s not happened so far and they are on the brink of a group-stage exit. Roberto Mancini’s men need to win on Wednesday and hope that Napoli suffer defeat at Villarreal.

The Premier League leaders have won just two of their five group games to date and suffered a comprehensive defeat in Munich back in September. Their form in Europe has been unrecognisable to their unbeaten run domestically and the pressure and quality of opponents will cause them more problems this week (Match Betting – City 8/13, draw 3/1, Bayern 9/2).

Bayern look like the real deal this season, a side that could make it to at least the last-four of the competition. The German giants are the fourth top scores in the Champions League this term, with 11 goals in five matches, and are unbeaten in Group A.

The Bundesliga outfit, who have already qualified for the last 16, have been critical of the way City appear to be buying their way to success and the full strength squad selected for the Eastlands clash, suggests they won’t to kill off City’s chances.

The Blues hopes rest largely on Sergio Aguero (6/5 To Score At Anytime), whose pace can cause a Bayern defence lacking in pace, a few problems. But pace on the break from the visitors will have City wary and could ultimately prove the downfall of Mancini’s men.

Basle v Manchester United

Sir Alex Ferguson’s men need just a point in Switzerland to make the knockout stages, but that sounds easier than it is likely to be for United (1/6 To Qualify). The Premier League champions have won just two of their five European ties this term – with both victories coming against Group C whipping boys Otelul Galati.

United have looked out of sorts in recent weeks and have struggled for goals, scoring just one goal in each of their last seven league games. They did score two against Benfica in their last group encounter, but also conceded two to take qualification down to the last game (Match Betting – Basle 5/1, draw 14/5, United 8/13).

With Javier Hernandez, Dimitar Berbatov and Michael Owen all sidelined, and Danny Welbeck just returning from injury, a lot of pressure sits on the shoulders of Wayne Rooney (7/2 First Goalscorer). United though have shored up at the back since the return of Ferdinand and Vidic and their defensive strength is likely to see them through this stern test.

Basle, who claimed a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford, have lost three of their last six Champions League home games and the experience of the visitors may prove too much for the home side, who need three points to qualify.

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Bayern aim to take control

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Neither Manchester City or Manchester United have exactly been firing on all cylinders in the Champions League so far this season and both clubs will have one eye on the other games in their respective groups on Wednesday, as they chase qualification for the knock-out phase.

We preview the other games in Groups A and C, as leaders Bayern Munich and Benfica look to continue their push towards the knockout stages.

Bayern Munich v Napoli – Group A

This is among the games of the night on Wednesday with the top two in the group going head-to-head at the Allianz Arena. Napoli claimed what could turn out to be a valuable point at City in their first game and could yet deny Roberto Mancini’s side a place in the knockout stage.

But Bayern have been ultra-impressive so far this season – both in Europe and domestically – losing just two games and conceding three goals in 17 in all competitions. They sit top of the Bundesliga – four points clear of Schalke – and the likes of Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thomas Muller have formed a formidable midfield partnership.

The 1-1 draw in Italy between these two a few weeks ago shows it is likely to be a tight contest in Germany, but Bayern really should have won in Naples, so expect a home win from the clean-sheet masters on Wednesday (Match Betting – Bayern 3/10, draw 9/2, Napoli 9/1).

Bayern frontman Mario Gomez is on fire and he looks a good bet at 3/1 in the First Goalscorer market, to add to his 10 strikes so far.

Benfica v Basel – Gp C

The other game in Manchester United’s group looks a little more clear-cut, with Benfica hot favourites to win (Match Betting – Benfica 3/11, draw 4/1, Basel 11/1) and maintain their unbeaten start to the tournament.

United and Benfica are without doubt the favourites to make it through eventually, but Basel’s 3-3 draw at Old Trafford proved they can go to the biggest venues and get a result – they were minutes away from a win too – so don’t be surprised if the Swiss champions spring another surprise in Portugal. At a big price, the draw could be worth a punt, bearing in mind the state of the group before kick-off.

Benfica are a tough nut to crack at home and will look to start well and, as a result, Benfica/Draw in the HT/FT market at 20/1, may look like a long shot but could be worth a wager.

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