Graham Hunter on how Atletico Madrid are like Chelsea of old, but why Jose Mourinho can take advantage of small margins

Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

  • Betting: Can the ‘new Chelsea’ beat the ‘old Chelsea?

Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Champions League semi finals, Chelsea v Atletico via Graphic News

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

John Terry and Frank Lampard 14/5/2006 00179078

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

Diego Costa

  • Betting: Fancy Hunter’s tip of a tight Chelsea result?

More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

  • For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
  • In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

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Take Toon to make point

There are four Premier League games on Sunday with the stand-out clash coming in the north east when Newcastle host Manchester United.

Newcastle v Man Utd (4pm)

The Magpies (3/1) may well fancy their chances of causing an upset at home against a Manchester United (10/11, draw 11/4) side who it is fair to say have yet to really get going this season.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have stumbled their way through the opening six weeks of the season and lost their second game of the campaign at Spurs last weekend.

They followed that up with just a narrow win over minnows CFR Cluj in the Champions League in midweek and will not find it easy at the Sports Direct Arena.

Alan Pardew’s side were convincing 3-0 winners over Bordeaux in the Europa League on Thursday and, in the shape of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse, have the strikers to trouble a shaky Red Devils’ rearguard.

Goals are likely and a score draw is predicted in an exciting game.

Prediction - 2-2 at 14/1.

Southampton v Fulham (1.30pm)

Sunday’s early kick-off sees a recently-promoted Southampton (8/5), who have struggled to adapt to life back in the top flight, against a Fulham (7/4, draw 12/5) side who have had a mixed campaign so far.

Saints did see off Villa 4-1 in their last home game but that is the only high point in a series of five defeats from their opening six games and Fulham will surely relish this trip to St Mary’s.

The Cottagers only narrowly lost to champions Manchester City 2-1 last weekend and can make amends with the three points in this one.

Prediction - Fulham to win 2-0 at 11/1.

Liverpool v Stoke (3pm)

Incredibly, Liverpool (1/2, draw 16/5) have won just two league games at Anfield in 2012 and a victory for Brendan Rodgers’ side is a must against the Potters after an overall poor start to the season.

Last weekend’s 5-2 victory at Norwich points at better things to come for the Reds as they finally got the goals earlier performances had been threatening but they will be tested by a dogged Stoke (13/2) side, who are always difficult to beat under Tony Pulis.

Former Liverpool striker Peter Crouch (5/2 to score anytime) is in great form and he will fancy it against his old side while ex-Reds Charlie Adam, Jermaine Pennant and Michael Owen – if he gets on – will also be fired up.

It looks like being tight and the home side will hope not to make the sort of crucial defensive mistakes that have blighted their season so far. If they manage to keep a clean sheet the Reds might just edge it.

Prediction - Liverpool to win 1-0 at 6/1.

Tottenham v Aston Villa (3pm)

Spurs (4/9) are improving under Andre Villas-Boas and, after a slow start, have begun to pick up points with last week’s win at Manchester United the highlight of an inconsistent campaign so far.

They have generally been unconvincing at home in the league, though, drawing against Norwich and West Brom, while they were lucky to see off QPR last time out after falling behind in the first half.

But Villa (7/1, draw 10/3) have hardly been pulling up trees under new boss Paul Lambert and only just scraped a 1-1 draw at home to local rivals West Brom last weekend. The midlanders were embarrassingly beaten 4-1 by newcomers Southampton on their last away trip and will want to erase that memory as quickly as possible.

Sadly, with a rejuvenated Spurs the opposition, we predict another long 90 minutes for Lambert and his players.

Prediction – Spurs to win 3-1 at 10/1.

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Villa can take bragging rights

There is just one Premier League fixture on Sunday but there is plenty at stake in a West Midlands derby as Aston Villa host a West Bromwich Albion side riding high in the Premier League.

There are of course bigger rivals for the clubs in Birmingham City and Wolves but there will be no lack of intensity and commitment on Sunday afternoon as the players look to give the fans the bragging rights.

Both sides of course began the campaign with new managers, with Villa turning to Paul Lambert to turn things around after the dire reign of Alex McLeish, while the Baggies have turned to Steve Clarke after Roy Hodgson was appointed as the new England boss.

There is no doubt that Clarke has enjoyed the better of the starts with three wins already under his belt as the Baggies sit pretty in fourth place in the table, while Villa have won just once in the league this term and find themselves in 14th place on four points.

However, Villa can only have been boosted by a fantastic win at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup in midweek and they have been installed as 6/4 favourites in the match betting, with Albion priced at 2/1 while the draw is on offer at 9/4.

True, West Brom have won three times this season but all three victories have come at the Hawthorns and Clarke’s men were soundly beaten 3-0 by Fulham the last time on their travels.

Villa have looked far from convincing this season, beating Swansea well in their only win in the league but crumbling to a 4-1 defeat at Southampton the week after despite taking the lead.

However, that victory over City could be the catalyst that Lambert was looking for and Gabriel Agbonlahor showed he is fully recovered from the knee injury sustained in pre-season.

The 25-year-old bagged two goals in an impressive performance at the Etihad and is available at 13/2 as First/Last Goalscorer, although whether he has done enough to earn a start remains to be seen, with 7/4 on offer as an Anytime Scorer.

Darren Bent (5/1 First/Last and 11/8 Anytime) and Christian Benteke (6/1 and 13/8) have been the preferred strikers so far but may now be anxiously looking over their shoulders.

Competition for places has got to be a good thing though and could well work in Lambert’s favour whichever way he goes, although the Villa boss will be without Stephen Ireland and Joe Bennett, offset by the news Brett Holman has recovered from a knee problem.

West Brom are not without their own injury problems though as Liam Ridgewell, James Morrison, Steven Reid, Jermaine Thomas and Goran Popov are all doubtful, while Peter Odemwingie is definitely out as he completes his ban following his sending off against Fulham.

Villa are not the sort of side, not yet anyway, that seem ready to batter an opponent out of sight, regardless of the venue but, although West Brom can certainly give them a game, they should have the momentum going into this fixture to take the three points.

The Baggies go into this one on the back of being  beaten 2-1 by Liverpool at the Hawthorns in the Capital One Cup, while their away form leaves a little to be desired.

However, they can at least get on the scoreboard and 2-1 has been a popular scoreline of late with five of the last six results ending that way – three times to Villa – and that is priced at a tempting 17/2.

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Bhoys to take first-leg advantage

The Champions League qualifiers continue on Tuesday with a number of mouth-watering ties including Celtic’s trip to Helsingborgs IF (Helsingborgs 13/8, draw23/10, Celtic 8/5 in the match betting), while the highest-profile meeting sees Borussia Monchengladbach face Dynamo Kiev.

Celtic boss Neil Lennon has already said that following Rangers’ much publicised demotion, his side must start to perform in Europe after years of failing to live up to expectations.

The Bhoys began their domestic season with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Ross County on Saturday but are likely to welcome back a number of their key players for the trip to Sweden, most notably striker Gary Hooper.

Hooper has been linked with a move away from Parkhead this summer but having managed to keep hold of him, boss Lennon knows his goals will be vital to any chance his side has of making it into the group stages.

Celtic will be confident of earning a result at the Olympia, but won’t have it all their own way against a competitive Helsinborgs side, who will fancy their chances.

Age Hareide’s men won the Swedish Premier League last term and don’t be surprised if they cause their Scottish opponents a number of problems.

This one looks almost too close to call but there seems to be a buzz surrounding Celtic at the moment and their determination should see them return to Scotland with an advantage ahead of next week’s second leg (Celtic 11/2 to win 1-0).

The other match that catches the eye is the tie between two old stalwarts of European football, Borussia Monchengladbach and Dynamo Kiev (Monchengladbach evens, draw 12/5, Kiev 11/4 in the match betting).

After winning the UEFA Cup in 1975 and 1979, Die Fohlen have had a couple of difficult decades but appear to be on the rise again and impressed by finishing fourth in the Bundesliga last season.

They have once again strengthened this summer and look out for striker Luuk De Jong to make an impact in the first leg.

The Dutchman was linked with moves to both Newcastle and Spurs earlier this year but eventually opted to join Borussia and will be desperate to live up to his hype, especially in Europe.

Just like their opponents on Tuesday, Dynamo Kiev appear to be a team on the rise and are in the midst of building a side capable of emulating the heights of past years.

Key to their chances in Germany will be the performance of winger Andriy Yarmolenko who is one of Europe’s hottest prospects.

After a difficult start to his career, the 22-year-old seems to have settled down and a big performance at Borussia-Park could even see him seal a move away from the Ukrainian capital.

Like the other game, this looks like a tough one to call but Monchengladbach’s added quality should just carry them to a single goal victory (Monchengladbach 7/1 to win 2-1).

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Foxes to take down Gulls

There will once again be plenty of expectation on Leicester City this term and it will be interesting to see how they get on when they get their campaign underway with a trip to Plainmoor to face Torquay United in the Capital One Cup on Tuesday (Torquay 3/1, draw 11/4, Leicester 5/6 Match Betting).

Over the past couple of seasons plenty of money has been spent at the King Power Stadium to sign the likes of Paul Konchesky and Jermaine Beckford, to name just a few players lured away from the Premier League.

Manager Nigel Pearson does have a very strong squad at his disposal and the introduction of Ritchie De Laet and Zak Whitbread to the defence this summer will make life difficult for Torquay, who will have to be at their best to catch the Foxes off guard.

There is bound to be some upsets on Tuesday night in the first round of the competition but it looks highly unlikely one will come at Plainmoor, with Leicester looking set to be too strong for the League Two outfit.

Cardiff City are another side who have splashed the cash recently and their latest recruitment of Craig Bellamy from Liverpool shows their intent ahead of their cup clash with Northampton Town at Sixfields Stadium (Northampton 10/3, draw 13/5, Cardiff 4/5 Match Betting).

The introduction of Heidar Helguson up front alongside Bellamy would be a potent combination which should cause the Cobblers all sorts of problems on Tuesday night.

Northampton boss Aidy Boothroyd may be able to get his side battling for promotion from League Two at the end of the season but they look set for a very early exit from the Capital One Cup.

Derby County are preparing to host Scunthorpe United at Pride Park on Tuesday, with the Irons more than capable of causing an upset if the Rams are not on their guard (Derby 8/11, draw 11/4, Scunthorpe 7/2 Match Betting).

Having come through a disappointing campaign in the Championship last term, manager Nigel Clough has lost defender Jason Shackell this summer and has been limited on the quality of players he can bring to the East Midlands outfit.

Scunthorpe have brought in American striker Mike Grella this summer and the former Leeds United forward has the ability to cause the Derby defence problems.

There is no reason why Scunthorpe can’t cause an upset here and they might just be able to get one over on Derby at Pride Park.

Championship promotion contenders Birmingham City are another team that have high expectations on their shoulders this season and they host Barnet in what should be another good game to prepare for the start of the league campaign (Birmingham 2/5, draw 7/2, Barnet Match Betting).

With a new manager, Lee Clark, at the helm in his biggest job to date, he will be looking to get a winning momentum going at St Andrews and they should have no problem in seeing off League Two Barnet to book their place in the second round of the Capital One Cup.

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Royals poised to take crown

There are several key games in the Championship on Tuesday which could affect both promotion and relegation as the run-in to the end of the season continues. Reading could clinch promotion while Southampton might also find themselves in a very healthy position with just two games to go (Southampton 1/7 Championship Promotion).

Reading v Nottingham Forest

Reading’s record of eight wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 10 games is promotion form in anyone?s book and that is exactly what might happen on Tuesday evening.

A win for the Royal against Forest coupled with anything but a win for West Ham and Brian McDermott’s men will be plying their trade in the Premier League next term.

It has been a remarkable run from the Berkshire outfit and Friday’s 3-1 victory over Southampton proved beyond doubt that they are the best side in the division and deserve to both gain promotion and win the Championship title.

They will face a Forest side who are 19th in the table and, despite a decent record of having taken 15 points from their past 10 matches, should be no match for Reading on their own patch.

Adam Le Fondre
is in red-hot form following his brace against the Saints and it would be fitting if he was to bag the winner and send Reading back to the Premier League after a four-year absence.

Defeat for Reading would not be a disaster as they will have two more games to seal promotion but it would be a brave man to back against a side that has won 14 of its last 16 games.

The Royals will find it a much tougher proposition in the top flight next season if they do make it but that will be the furthest thing from their mind if they get over the line on Tuesday, as the party will begin at the Madejski.

Odds: Reading 1/2, Forest 9/2, draw 11/4

Bristol City v West Ham

The Hammers looked like they would make an immediate return to the Premier League for three quarters of the season but a failure to win games when it matters has been their Achilles heel.

Sam Allardyce’s charges have won three of their last five matches and are still in with a decent shout of gaining second spot in the table but five successive draws in March means their fate is now out of their own hands.

If Southampton win their three remaining games then it will be the play-offs for the Hammers and all the pressure and heartache that the post-season brings.

Victory at Ashton Gate is therefore essential for the Londoners and that will not be easy to achieve as the Robins are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table.

They are four points clear of the relegation zone and three points next time out could see them secure Championship safety depending on how Coventry fare against Millwall.

City are unbeaten in five and have won two from three and a draw at fourth place Birmingham on Saturday proved that they are a side who do not intend to drop into League One.

West Ham do have the second best record away from home in the division, however, and so it will be a real test for Derek McInnes’ men to carry on their unbeaten run.

They do have a winnable game to follow with a home clash against Barnsley but the south west outfit would love to have their future sorted on Tuesday evening.

Odds: Bristol City 3/1, West Ham 8/11, draw 5/2

Peterborough v Southampton

Southampton had been on a similar run to Reading before coming a cropper at Blackpool on March 21 and that defeat seemed to knock the wind out of their sails.

A draw to local rivals Portsmouth was followed by victory over Crystal Palace but defeat to the Royals last time out means they have taken just four points from four games and let West Ham back in with a chance of beating them to the second automatic promotion spot.

But they do still have a three-point advantage over the East Enders and that it crucial at this late stage of the campaign.

Victory over the Posh in tandem with a defeat for the Hammers will give them, in golfing parlance, a dormie six-point advantage with two games to go and mean they are in pole position to return to the promised land.

The south coast club have been there or there abouts all season and deserve to go up without having to go through the play-offs, and will face a Peterborough side who are so close to securing their Championship survival.

One point should be enough to ensure they beat the drop due to their superior goal difference over those below them in the standings but the Peterborough fans will be glad that their heroes put some points on the board earlier this term as they have taken just four from their last six games with four defeats.

The players might already be ‘on their holidays’ but there are three games to go and they will want to finish on a positive note.

Posh have won 10 at home this season but it is hard to see them adding to that tally against Nigel Adkins’ men.

Odds: Peterborough 100/30, Southampton 4/6, draw 5/2

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Take Tottenham to pass test

Tottenham should maintain their challenge to stay on the coat-tails of the Manchester powerhouses when they entertain Everton at White Hart Lane in the Premier League on Wednesday (Tottenham 8/15 draw 3/1 Everton 6/1 – 90 minutes).

The north Londoners take on David Moyes’ men knowing a victory will put them level with second-placed United and three points behind Premier League leaders City in the race for the biggest prize on the domestic stage.

Harry Redknapp has the luxury of recalling the influential attacking triumvirate of Rafael van der Vaart, Luka Modric and Gareth Bale after resting them for Saturday’s 3-0 FA Cup win over Cheltenham and Tottenham will not want to waste what could turn out to be a crucial game in hand.

The top-four hopefuls have scored in every home game in the Premier League so far this season and for all of the ongoing conjecture about an ever-changing back four – Redknapp will again be without Ledley King and William Gallas on Wednesday – it is worth noting Tottenham have only conceded one goal in their last five games at White Hart Lane in the top flight.

Redknapp has played a trick on his squad by making no secret of his desire to bring in a marquee signing in an attempt to keep them on their toes and, on paper at least, only injuries could prevent Tottenham from splitting – or even surpassing – the two Manchester clubs.

They started 2012 as the capital’s top club for the first time in 17 years and there is genuine belief that they could go close to achieving the unthinkable.

The visit of Everton gives them the chance to prove they can deliver on such promise but it will not be easy.

The Merseysiders have picked up recently and thoughts of relegation have eased off the back of a run of just one defeat in five games in all competitions.

Moyes continues to perform miracles with limited resources and Everton can prove belligerent and obdurate opponents on their travels.

They have come through a wretched spell at the end of 2011 – a run which yielded just three wins in all competitions from September 24 to December 17 – to climb up the table and allay fears of a relegation scrap for the time being at least.

The advice here is to stick with the home side because this fixture could mean just that bit more to them and speculative punters may like the Jermain Defoe, who has scored first on his last two starts, and Tottenham 2-0 win ‘Scorecast‘ selection, team news permitting.

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Bluebirds to take down Eagles

The thought of playing at Wembley must have been on the minds of most players from Crystal Palace and Cardiff City over the festive period as one of these sides will grace the turf at the home of football in the Carling Cup final this season (Crystal Palace 17/10, draw 23/10, Cardiff 8/5 in the match betting).

These two Championship teams are currently preparing for the first leg of their semi-final encounter on Tuesday, when the Bluebirds and their fans make the trip across the Welsh border to take on the Eagles at Selhurst Park.

Cardiff go into this game having been unable to imitate their Carling Cup form in the FA Cup as they crashed out in the third round of the competition with a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Premier League outfit West Brom last weekend.

The Bluebirds welcome back veteran defender Kevin McNaughton for the trip to the capital with the versatile player returning to action after three matches out with a calf strain.

Cardiff managed to beat Blackburn Rovers in the quarter-final of the competition to reach the final four and they ultimately sacrificed their hopes of continuing in the FA Cup by resting players for this game against the Eagles.

Crystal Palace manager Dougie Freedman is expected to make a host of chances after employing the same tactic as his opposite number on Tuesday – Malky Mackay – by playing a weakened side in their 1-0 FA Cup defeat against Derby County.

A host of unnamed players have come down with a bug this week which has delayed Freedman naming his squad that will look to take down a Bluebirds’ side who have lost just one game in their last 13 in the Championship.

The last time these two sides met was back in November and it was Mackay’s men who came out on top, with a 2-0 victory at the Cardiff City Stadium as their star men came to the fore.

Scotland striker Kenny Miller (6/1 First Goalscorer) and Peter Whittingham were on target for the home side that day and they will once again be a threat for Palace on Tuesday in what should be open game.

The Eagles have threats of their own with Wilfried Zaha (8/1 First Goalscorer) becoming a highly rated player at Selhurst Park and looks set to cause the Cardiff defence problems.

Darren Ambrose who scored the wonder strike to put Palace through to the last four of the Carling Cup is another standout player, as his goal knocked out Premier League champions Manchester United at Old Trafford in the upset of the tournament this season.

This should be a close encounter as Palace have come on leaps and bounds this term under the leadership of Freedman.

However Cardiff are in fine form and with their decent record at Selhurst Park – having lost just once on their last five visits, they should take a lead back to Wales for the second leg.

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Bayern aim to take control

Neither Manchester City or Manchester United have exactly been firing on all cylinders in the Champions League so far this season and both clubs will have one eye on the other games in their respective groups on Wednesday, as they chase qualification for the knock-out phase.

We preview the other games in Groups A and C, as leaders Bayern Munich and Benfica look to continue their push towards the knockout stages.

Bayern Munich v Napoli – Group A

This is among the games of the night on Wednesday with the top two in the group going head-to-head at the Allianz Arena. Napoli claimed what could turn out to be a valuable point at City in their first game and could yet deny Roberto Mancini’s side a place in the knockout stage.

But Bayern have been ultra-impressive so far this season – both in Europe and domestically – losing just two games and conceding three goals in 17 in all competitions. They sit top of the Bundesliga – four points clear of Schalke – and the likes of Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thomas Muller have formed a formidable midfield partnership.

The 1-1 draw in Italy between these two a few weeks ago shows it is likely to be a tight contest in Germany, but Bayern really should have won in Naples, so expect a home win from the clean-sheet masters on Wednesday (Match Betting – Bayern 3/10, draw 9/2, Napoli 9/1).

Bayern frontman Mario Gomez is on fire and he looks a good bet at 3/1 in the First Goalscorer market, to add to his 10 strikes so far.

Benfica v Basel – Gp C

The other game in Manchester United’s group looks a little more clear-cut, with Benfica hot favourites to win (Match Betting – Benfica 3/11, draw 4/1, Basel 11/1) and maintain their unbeaten start to the tournament.

United and Benfica are without doubt the favourites to make it through eventually, but Basel’s 3-3 draw at Old Trafford proved they can go to the biggest venues and get a result – they were minutes away from a win too – so don’t be surprised if the Swiss champions spring another surprise in Portugal. At a big price, the draw could be worth a punt, bearing in mind the state of the group before kick-off.

Benfica are a tough nut to crack at home and will look to start well and, as a result, Benfica/Draw in the HT/FT market at 20/1, may look like a long shot but could be worth a wager.

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Marseille can take Group F control

Aside from the Chelsea and Arsenal fixtures, there are some intriguing Champions League matches on Wednesday. The pick of the ties sees Marseille entertain German champions Borussia Dortmund in Group F, with the French side looking to make it two wins out of two in the tournament.

Marseille v Borussia Dortmund (7:45pm)

Didier Deschamps’ team picked up an impressive 1-0 away win in Greece on Matchday One and it’s normally at home where they pose the biggest threat. The Stade Velodrome is an intimidating place to play and they conceded just one goal at home en route to the last 16 last season, before being eventually knocked out by Manchester United.

Dortmund looked good in spells in their group opener against Arsenal, but only secured a point after a dramatic late equaliser. They look like a tough side to beat at home, but their inexperienced squad may struggle on their travels.

The German side have not scored in their last three visits to France and will struggle to break down a well organised Marseille.

Suggested Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6.

BATE Borisov v Barcelona (7:45pm)

The 2011 champions made a stuttering start to their defence, being held to a 2-2 draw at the Nou Camp by AC Milan. That could well inspire Pep Guardiola’s squad to response in their usual comprehensive fashion so, with that in mind, watch out BATE!

The Belarusians will have a sell-out 39,600 crowd behind them and will go into the match full of confidence, after a club record nine-match unbeaten run in Europe which stretches back to last December. BATE are also 16 games unbeaten at home in all competitions, although they have lost both their previous meetings when hosting Spanish opposition.

Suggested Bet: Barca to win (-1 Handicap) @ 1/3.

AC Milan v Plzen (7:45pm)

Milan have started the season well, losing just one of their first five domestic and European games, including a 2-2 draw at Barcelona a fortnight ago. Goals have been a problem, though, in recent weeks for an injury-ravaged squad, so don’t expect a glut of scoring in this game.

Plzen have already gone through three rounds to get to this stage and the Czech champions have won three successive away games en route to the group stage.

There are no overseas players in their whole squad, who secured a 1-1 home draw with BATE Borisov last time out.

Suggested Bet: Draw HT / Milan FT @ 7/2.

Zenit St Petersburg v FC Porto (5pm)

Having slipped up to APOEL on Matchday One, expect a backlash from Zenit when they return home on Wednesday. Three-quarters of their way through the Russian Premier League, Zenit have not lost at the Petrovsky Stadium.

Portuguese sides are notoriously bad travellers in Europe and although Porto have genuine quality in their side, with the likes of Hulk and Joao Moutinho, they may find a trip to Russia too tough.

Suggested Bet: Zenit to win @ 2/1.

Bayer Leverkusen v Genk (7:45pm)

Last season’s Bundesliga runners-up started their group campaign with defeat at Chelsea, but they will prove to be a much tougher nut to crack on home soil. Leverkusen are looking to continue a three-match unbeaten run against Belgian opposition, although their league form does give Genk hope.

The Germans have lost their last three matches, scoring just one goal and conceding nine and scoring just one, including a 4-1 home drubbing to Koln. Genk will look to build on a useful draw at home to Valencia in their first Group E clash.

Suggested Bet: Draw @ 4/1.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Apoel Nicosia (7:45pm)

Shakhtar started Group G with the formidable task of a trip to Porto, and were predictably beaten 2-1. But the Ukrainians achieved four straight home wins in last season’s UEFA Champions League, before losing to Barcelona in the quarter finals.

Apoel won 2-1 against FC Zenit St Petersburg in their opening game and enjoyed a decent record away from home in the Champions League two years ago. On that occasion they earned draws at Atletico Madrid and Chelsea, while losing 2-1 at Porto.

Suggested Bet: Shakhtar HT/FT @ 5/6.

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