Graham Hunter: The devil is in the details if Man City want to beat Barcelona over two legs

Playing at this level of the Champions League is like signing an important contract – it’s all about the small print.

Read the big phrases, get excited by the special-offer clauses, but miss the detail and you’ll be turned over.

You’ll get a rusty Ford Cortina and an loan-shark APR instead of a Range Rover and easy, stable repayments.

Small print, detail, is at the heart of whether Manchester City can eliminate Barcelona this season – as opposed to the series of crucial, naive errors which left them defeated home and away against a far less impressive Barça last term.

Go back to the first leg last February.

Manuel Pellegrini now admits that he was more fixated on not conceding an away goal than he was by prioritising playing on the front foot, putting Tata Martino’s side under pressure – turning it into a rousing, racy English version of a big European night.

Manuel Pellegrini

“Last season we wanted to put the brakes on Barcelona in the first leg because the value of the away goal is almost always determining in the Champions League” Pellegrini revealed at the weekend.

“This time we’ll go for the match from the very outset – albeit with consideration for the fact that we’re playing a dangerous opponent”

That tactic was the first mistake. City surrendered the initiative. Martin Demichelis was given a man-marking job on Leo Messi. Largely he did it well until the 53 minute.

There followed a series of errors from City which turned the entire tie.

Jesus Navas thought he’d been fouled. So did his team mates. City ‘stopped’.

Not stock-still but they relaxed, they expected the whistle. There was a drop in concentration and intensity. Barcelona whisked the ball upfield.

City’s first mistake – assuming that the whistle would go. Not playing flat-out until it did.

The next belonged to Vincent Kompany. Before Navas lost the ball Messi had looked lazy and self-indulgent.

He was isolated upfield, significantly offside. Barely trotting back.

Meanwhile Iniesta was racing out of his own half with the ball at his feet.

Passing immediately to Messi wasn’t an option.

But Kompany wasn’t aware of where the Argentinian striker was. He’d ‘lost’ him, mentally.

Lionel Messi

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So with Iniesta running towards him Kompany did the ‘natural’ thing of jogging backwards to try and get in line with Demichelis in the hope that City’s midfield would intervente make the first attempt to close Iniesta down.

As Kompany urgently jogged backwards, Messi had begun sprinting to try and get onside.

The combined effect, the defender going backwards, Messi running towards him, cut the time needed to get the striker onside.

Iniesta noticed, waited, slid the perfect pass into the striker and suddenly City were sunk.

Demichelis tried to compensate, made the ‘last-man’ tackle and though he was unfortunate that the referee called it a penalty, rather than a free kick, it was suddenly 10-man City v Barcelona with a spot kick.

Details. Small details. Already turning the tie.

Another such was the Neymar substitution. All season he’d played on the left. This time Martino brought him on down the right. In the 16 minutes he was on the pitch he regularly combined with Dani Alves, already playing like a winger, to overwhelm Gael Clichy. Alves nearly scored.

Neither Pellegrini nor City, albeit with ten men, knew how to react. Nothing was done, Neymar and Alves combined again in the match’s last minute and suddenly the single away goal was two. Total disaster, but foreseeable and preventable.

Man City v Barcelona MBS

The second leg was much, much more competitive. City played with a great deal more poise, intelligence and conviction.

Until the key moment.

Cesc Fabregas’ through-ball to his long term ‘partner-in-crime’, Messi, for whom he’d been creating goals since they were 14, should have been intercepted and recycled forward by Joleon Lescott. To do so was simplicity itself.
But somehow he ends up deflecting the pass straight into the path of Messi who scores. 3-0 and goodnight Vienna.

There’s a haunting image of Pellegrini, in the Camp Nou stands because of his red card in the first leg, head in hands. Frustrated, desolate. Disbelieving.

There are individual elements which, objectively, push forward the likelihood of City performing much more dangerously this season.

Kun Agüero had zero impact a year ago – now he’s fit and in lovely form.

Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko

City intermittently posed a real goal threat in both of the ties last season, Edin Dzeko in particular pulling a brilliant save from Victor Valdés – already a three time Champions League winner. At that stage teh Catalan already had 104 outings in the competition under his belt.

Tonight, Ter Stegen, 22, [six Champions League matches] will keep goal for Barcelona. Patently a very good young keeper, superb with his feet, Manuel Pellegrini’s scouts will have noticed him flapping at corners and cross balls this season – noticeably in conceding the second goal in a 3-2 defeat at PSG in the group.

No Touré tonight – but unquestionably the possibility of Kompany, Fernandinho, Dzeko, Bony or Lampard adding a headed goal at some stage in the two ties. Stegen faces a test of fire.

What about a health-check for those who don’t see Barça regularly?

Neymar’s form this season has been sublime – as has his partnership with Messi. “We look for each other with the ball, all the time” Messi told me about the intuitive link-play which was such a part in the 42 goals scored in the eleven straight wins between defeat to David Moyes Real Sociedad and the appalling performance in losing 0-1 at home to Málaga on Saturday.

BUT, for the last three or four performances the Brazilian’s accuracy, ruthlessness in front of goal and consistency have dipped – noticeably. Bad timing.

Suárez has been playing with wonderful cleverness and selflessness – a modern Henrik Larsson. The only thing missing, now, is a clinical finish. Will it come now?

Luis Suarez

Rakitic has been the element to make everything tick. “Barcelona are less elaborate now than they were at the peak of Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets” Pellegrini says. “More direct .. but still as dangerous because of the quality of their players”

Rakitic is one of those footballers who seems to be everywhere, can tackle. pass, play divine wall-passes, has a goal in him and won’t be shy of the power of English football.

His form is a central building block for Barcelona. If he’s dynamic they press and win the ball and use it much more dangerously.

I suspect it’s worth thinking about both teams to score, possibly twice each, worth thinking about Kun and Messi to exchange ‘anything you can do I can do better’ goal-moments.

If City make similar errors, if they haven’t learned, matured – they’ll be beaten twice.

If Barcelona play anything like they did against Málaga they’ll really suffer at the Etihad. In fact, in that case, they’ll be beaten.

But when that ‘Champions-hymn’ shimmers out, it’s Pavlovian for Barça. They’ll be up for it and we’ll have fun watching this tie. Better balanced than last season, more goals, but everything still revolving on details. Tiny details.

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Graham Hunter: Why, if Barcelona get their tactics wrong, Man City can punish them

It’s odd after the Catalan euphoria of a 0-2 win at the Etihad in the first leg that subsequent power-plays by the two Madrid clubs (Atletico 5-1 winners over Milan, Real Madrid 6-1 up on Schalke) that Barça somehow profile as the ‘weak’ man of the Spanish Champions League trio.

The aura which they re-established that night in Manchester, whispering reminiscences of better times gone by, has been dissipated by subsequent horror-shows in La Liga.

Add the fact that it’s now palpably clear that Mauricio Pellegrini should have dictated a faster-paced, high-pressure, high-up-the-pitch strategy in the first leg (patented in Barça defeats by Valladolid and Real Sociedad) and there’s the whiff of a shock drifting over the Camp Nou.

Manuel PellegriniTwitter

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Vincent Kompany, all seriousness and articulate football analysis in the press room of the Camp Nou on Tuesday, very evidently felt that football inherently provides great nights, great shocks like City will need but also warned that at the first sign of complacency from the visitors that Barcelona are easy meat and ‘the beast might awake’.

Those who favour City will talk about Barcelona’s defence. It’s not a false point but I think it also misses the key issue. It’s in midfield where Barcelona have begun to be over-run.

Attack is the best form of defence

When the Catalans were at their very best the defence began with the front three – perm from Pedro, Leo Messi, Samuel Etoo, Thierry Henry and David Villa.

For opposition defenders it was simply less hassle to get shot of the ball than put up with Blaugrana strikers, backed up by midfielders or wing backs, nipping and snarling around their heels.

By definition this meant that the midfield was almost always on the front foot.

Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Yaya Touré and Seydou Keita et al were constantly picking up the scraps of possession won by the front three relatively high up the pitch and immediately pressing the advantage the way that the forward line pressed the ball – with urgency and intelligence.

All of this meant that with predictable regularity the majority of the defending which Barcelona’s back line did was based on anticipating trouble coming, reading it, intercepting it and, more regularly than right now as teams score from set plays or shoot early, relying on Victor Valdes making one-on-one saves when the defensive line was penetrated.

Etoo Iniesta and Pique celebrate

Currently neither of the two lines in front of them are protecting the Barça defence the way they once did.

While I would argue that both Dani Alves and Javier Mascherano are making consistently flawed decisions on positioning and when/when not to  tackle, the impression that the roof is falling in on the Barcelona back four is exacerbated by: how much extra work they are having to cope with; what their role was originally constructed by Pep Guardiola to be (largely offensive) and how deep they feel obliged to play.

Which leads to the fundamental decision facing Tata Martino with regards to team selection, team formation and the philosophy of how to control this tie tonight.

tata martino

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By his own admission after the first leg against City the cluster of matches (Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad and the match in Manchester) not only had the Spanish champions played well, controlled matches won with style or qualified for the Cup Final (against Real Sociedad), Barcelona had managed to concede very few chances on goal.

Part of his success was to tamper with the outright 4-3-3 formation, where the front three are all pure strikers, and to ensure that as often as possible Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Sergio Busquets and Cesc Fabregas are united in the same team.

More, when either Iniesta or Cesc is named in the front three but, effectively performs like an (attacking) midfielder Barcelona’s shape is 4-4-2 or, when the full backs push on, 3-5-2.

Absolutely Fabregas – Cesc has to start

The centre of the pitch is well-worked, possession is circulated, the ball is dominated, Barcelona introduce a sense of calm and control, the defence returns to reading and anticipating (rather than dealing with the roof falling in over their heads) fewer corners are conceded (vital) and Tata Martino’s side become formidable once more.

Yet something in the Argentinian seems to dare him to ignore the obvious. In their two horror defeats, to Real Sociedad in the league and then Valladolid last weekend, he has opted for three out and out strikers, left the midfield denuded – and been whupped for his troubles.

If Martino gets his selection right – Xavi, Cesc, Busquets and Iniesta must all start – then whatever the result on the night you can bet your bottom dollar that the home side will qualify.

IF his tactical statement (as he postulated on Tuesday) is ‘we are Barça, we are at home, we play 4-3-3 as a point of principal’ then City can smack their lips and approach the match with relish.

Silva and Aguero celebrate

Martino has at his disposal a tiring, ageing, but nonetheless 24 karat group of footballers who are hugely stung by their recent losses and how they are being savagely criticised here in Catalunya (and Madrid) expect a reaction.

Note, please, that Barcelona limited City’s corners in the first leg. And that their marking scheme had Gerard Piqué free on the edge of the six yard box and Dani Alves paired with Alvaro Negredo.

I saw Negredo last week at the Calderon when a Brazilian-born striker, Diego Costa, relegated him to the Spain bench for the entire 90 minutes against Italy. He wasn’t chuffed. He’s found goals hard to produce in the last seven matches but is ideally shaped to end that here.

Negredo to notch a header, both teams to score but, if Martino isn’t stubborn and simply reads the runes correctly with four midfielders, Barcelona to do no worse than draw. And to proceed.

Mind you, as Kompany correctly points out, ‘football is great because it routinely provides remarkable nights when remarkable things happen’.

Stay tuned.

Hunter’s Punts

Negredo to score at anytime: 3/1
Both teams to score: 4/7
Both teams to score and Barca to win: 17/10 – or – Both teams to score and draw: 4/1

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Stoke v Man City – FA Cup Betting Preview

Roberto ManciniStoke are welcoming Man City to Britannia Stadium today for their FA Cup clash in what should be an exciting game, as it is a repeat of the FA Cup final in 2011 and Stoke should be out for revenge. In the 2011 final Man City defeated The Potters 1-0 which was a huge blow for the Staffordshire squad, and punters who think Stoke are going to even the playing field here can back them at 10/3, although Man City are our 4/5 favourite.

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Premier League Betting Preview – Arsenal v Man City

Santi CazorlaManchester City will look to close the gap at the top with a win over Arsenal in the Premier League in today’s late kick-off. But they will have to do it on-the-road. The Gunners haven’t had the best record this season and Arsene Wenger has come under fire for a number of reasons, but they’re unbeaten in five winning their last two home matches so Roberto Mancini’s men have their work cut out.

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Carlos TevezMan City are welcoming Reading to Ethiad Stadium today, and City should be confident of securing a win. They are entering the match in excellent form, having only lost once in the Premier League this season, whereas Reading have lost their last six in succession. City’s only loss has come to league leaders Man United so they should do well against bottom placed Reading, and the Blues are our very strong 1/7 favourite to win.

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City ready to kick on

Wednesday’s action in the Champions League will complete the halfway-stage of the group stages with England’s remaining contingent so far enduring contrasting fortunes in Europe’s elite competition.

Arsenal were handed what looked one of the easier draws in the groups this year and so far the Gunners have followed the script with two wins out of two to sit pretty at the top of Group A.

Arsene Wenger’s men can take a massive step towards the knockout stages with victory on Wednesday and they are priced at Even money to collect the three points, while Schalke are on offer at 14/5 with the draw at 5/2.

It is difficult to argue with the fact that the Gunners are favourites, given their rich history in the competition as well as the fact that they have put together a 16-match unbeaten streak at home in the Champions League since a 3-1 defeat against Manchester United in the semi-finals in 2009.

However, all is perhaps not so rosy in the Gunners camp with an injury list robbing them of a number of key players while they go into the game on the back of a surprise 1-0 reverse at Norwich. Admittedly that result was away but it is now left them 10 points behind Chelsea in the Premier League and the priority could be the domestic clash with QPR at the weekend.

Schalke have made an encouraging start to the season, lying third in the Bundesliga and, along with leaders Bayern Munich, have yet to be beaten on the road this season, which includes a win at champions Borussia Dortmund last Saturday.

The Royal Blues have made a good start to Group A as well, unbeaten after two games, and continue that run with a share of the spoils on Wednesday.

Manchester City were done no favours by the draw last term in their first season in Europe’s elite competition but have arguably faired worse in their second. The English champions have been drawn against their Spanish, German and Dutch counterparts and have picked up just one point from their opening two games.

Roberto Mancini’s men surrendered two late goals at the Bernabeu to ultimately slip to defeat but got one of their own against Dortmund to at least get up and running. That draw at the Etihad could be seen as a disappointing result but they now have the chance to their campaign up and running with back to back games against the weakest team in the group.

City have been installed as the 8/11 favourites in the match betting to pick up their first win in the competition in Amsterdam, with Ajax priced up at 4/1 and the draw at 11/4 – and it is not hard to see why.

City have won their last two away games with the latest coming despite the fact that they had been reduced to 10 men in the first half, while they also kept their first clean sheet of the season two weeks ago against Sunderland.

Ajax have been held on their last two occasions in the Eredivisie while they got thrashed 4-1 by Real Madrid at the Amsterdam Arena in matchday two. David Silva might be a notable absentee for the Citizens but they have far too much ammunition to earn a valuable three points.

Elsewhere and Porto can tighten their grip on Group A with victory over Dynamo Kiev, while big-spending Paris Saint Germain look good to return to winning way at Dinamo Zagreb.

Zenit St Petersburg have failed to deliver in the tournament so far and are perhaps too short to beat fellow Group C strugglers Anderlecht, although Malaga can put one foot in the knockout stages with victory over an out-of-sorts AC Milan side at 11/10, and Real Madrid have all the necessary tools to take care of business in Germany and beat Borussia Dortmund at 11/10.

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City and Arsenal set for Euro wins

Arsenal and Manchester City both enjoy home advantage on Wednesday night in the Champions League, and we think the two English sides can pick up wins over Olympiacos and Borussia Dortmund respectively.

The Gunners got off to a winning start in the Champions League two weeks ago as they came from behind to see off French champions Montpellier away from home.

Olympiacos suffered a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Schalke in their opening game and need to get a result at the Emirates to give themselves a chance of reaching the latter stages of the competition, but Arsenal should be too strong on home soil.

Arsenal are 4/11 to secure the win in the standard match betting market, the draw is 4/1 and Olympiacos are 8/1 to grab a shock victory.

However, the Gunners have scored 13 goals in their last three home games, conceding just four, and we think the 20/23 on offer for an Arsenal win with a -1 handicap is the best bet in this particular fixture.

Manchester City can count themselves unlucky to be without a point after their Champions League opener at Real Madrid.

Roberto Mancini’s side were leading heading into the closing stages of the match but conceded two late goals at the Bernabeu and City will be eager to get their first points on the board when German champions Dortmund arrive at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

Dortmund picked up a 1-0 win over Ajax in their opening fixture but City should be too strong for the German giants, who haven’t won away in the Bundesliga yet this season.

City are priced at 10/11 to secure the win and they should be able to take all three points when the Bundesliga champions visit on Wednesday, a win for Dortmund is available at 10/3 and the draw is 5/2.

Real Madrid travel to Ajax as two giants of European football meet in Amsterdam but it should be a relatively straightforward win for the Spanish champions, who will be looking to maintain their 100% start to the competition and put the pressure on Dortmund, City and Ajax.

Coach Jose Mourinho will be desperate to land the title with a third club, having lifted the trophy with Porto and Inter Milan, and will almost certainly name his strongest possible side at the Amsterdam Arena.

Real are 4/9 to win in the standard match betting market, but the 21/20 on offer for a Madrid victory with a -1 handicap looks much more appealing and we think this is the best bet in this tie.  Ajax are 7/1 to grab the win and the draw is 7/2.

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