The post Watch: Graham Hunter has a 9/2 double for the last weekend of the La Liga season – and he’s praying Getafe go down! appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
Last weekend, Graham predicted the following on the Paddy Power Blog: Atletico (-1) to beat Elche (won), a three-goal win for Real Madrid against Celta (won), Sevilla to beat Rayo (won), and Barca by three against Espanyol… which won. Decent.
He’s not often praised for it because it raises uncomfortable themes but Gerard Piqué once expressed this phenomenon most honestly and accurately. Without quoting Getafe in particular the Barcelona centre half admitted, at the height of his powers around 2011, that there were times when a match, for club or country, held little appeal. His point was that elite footballers can get so used to the ‘champagne’ moments of testing away matches in Milan or Munich, or to Cup semi finals and finals or to games via which the league title is going to be decided that if it’s a cold midweek evening in a little stadium with very few fans, the pitch is lumpy and it’s a commonplace rival with nothing exotic about them then motivation can be hard to dig out.
The general pattern of Getafe games over the last few seasons has established just that pattern for Barça. If they are concentrating, motivated and determined to win then they’ll score four, five or even six against this unloved suburban Madrid team.
But if the Catalans aren’t quite ‘on it’ then they can easily lose or draw. Evidence is at hand in that Getafe drew 2-2 at the Camp Nou last May, a game which cost the title, and won at home as recently as 2011.
Cosmin Contra [what a fearsome flying wing back he was in his day] has made his team hard to beat but goals are their problem. Abdoul Yoda is their main source of goals but has no previous goal record to speak of across his peripatetic career prior to Getafe. Pablo Sarabia does tend to trouble Barça’s defence. Luis Enrique’s equivalents, Leo Messi, Neymar and Luis Suárez, finally all scored in the same game in midweek – something you’d imagine we are about to see happen more regularly. Messi has ten goals and an assist in his last five matches and feels unstoppable.
In terms of the pattern of the game Barcelona have a bad habit of starting slowly, often conceding first, and needing what’s called the ‘remontada’ in Spanish football – a comeback win. It’s not beyond imagination that if Getafe were to take the lead they might damage Barcelona with a draw. But you’d need a creative imagination all the same. Barça to win 3-1 (a 9/1 shot) - Messi, Pedro and Suárez to find the onion bag.
MATCH REPORT – Barça v PSG (3-1): Messi, Neymar and Suarez fire #FCBarcelona to top spot http://t.co/znhomcB9Jr pic.twitter.com/59ZQlupVbj
— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) December 10, 2014
Ref watch: Vicandi Garrido – one match, one defeat with Barcelona [Celta at home]
This should be fun. Given Villarreal’s relatively recent emergence as a Spanish power there have only been 26 meetings between the sides but they average over three goals per game in that time.
The Yellow Submarine don’t mind torpedoing the Mattress Makers [Colchoneros] in Madrid every now and then – but they don’t insist on it. Polite. And where the crux of this meeting rests is which of the two sides can best cope with intense midweek football better – a factor which has to favour the Spanish champions.
Atleti may only have drawn 0-0 in the Champions League but it was with Juventus and secured group leadership. Villarreal had the long travel to and from Nicosia, their game was on Thursday night rather than Tuesday and Marcelino chose to use a relatively strong lineup.
That said, Villarreal have rattled in twelve goals in their last five games via seven different scorers – Vietto, Gerard, Uche, Moi Gomez, Cheryshev, Bruno Soriano and Nahuel.
Vital for Atlético to win this one however. Through in Europe, Spanish Supercup holders and the last side to beat Madrid it’s still the case that there’s been a big dip since last season – mostly due to the loss of talent sold in the summer. At this stage a year ago Atleti had won twelve, drawn and lost once each, scored 38 and conceded nine for a goal difference of 29 and 37 points. Now it’s won ten, lost and drawn two each, scored only 27, conceded 12 for a difference of 15 and thirty two points. If that drift continues across the season then the title is out of reach.
Diego Godin and Miranda have formed a solid defensive partnership at Atlético which led them to the La Liga title. pic.twitter.com/52C8iQPSdn
— Final Whistle (@FinalWhistle__) December 8, 2014
Miranda (above) should return and gets the odd set piece goal, Raúl García is due a goal and Antoine Griezmann was rested against Juve so should get significant minutes in this one. 2-1 Atleti for me at 7/1.
Ref watch: Pérez Montero – Eight matches with Atleti, one defeat. Reffed these two sides a couple of seasons ago in a 1-1 draw. Horrible news for Villarreal that it’s Pérez Montero – seven matches and not one win under him. Four defeats, three draws.
The last time an ex Everton manager was in charge of one of these teams in the Basque derby it was all so different. Howard Kendall coached Athletic Bilbao – now it’s David Moyes with Real Sociedad.
Just to add to the Mersey theme the biggest thorn in Kendall’s side back then was former Liverpool striker John Toshack. In charge of Real Sociedad in those late eighties seasons he constantly found a way to beat Kendall’s Athletic in the derby, home or away.
One famous example was in October 1987 when Toshack’s La Real won 4-1 at Kendall’s Athletic with Manchester City Director of Football Txiki Begiristain and Real Sociedad Director of Football Loren both scoring. But another person Toshack tormented as a predecessor to Moyes at La Real was current Athletic coach Ernesto Valverde. When Toshack returned to run things at the Anoeta for the second [but not last] time he won the first Basque derby after his return, in November 1991.
In that Athletic team was a winger who to this day doesn’t know what it feels like to win at the Anoeta – Valverde. As a player he has three draws and three defeats while as a coach with Valencia, Espanyol or Athletic Bilbao three defeats and two draws [including one for Athletic where his club were two nil up and still lost 3-2]
Result-wise Aritz Aduriz (below, somewhere) is crucial for Athletic. They’ve only scored twice in the 600 minutes they’ve had to play without him this season.
Aritz Aduriz stunner sees Athletic Bilbao to victory over Sevilla http://t.co/s3dxzy9phF pic.twitter.com/J21s0by8D2
— WorldCup NewsRoom (@WCNewsRoom) November 2, 2014
He should start – but how fit is he? Scattered across both squads there are players who’ve scored in this fixture – Muniain, San José, Toquero, Prieto, Vela, Susaeta, Pardo and Iñigo Martínez. But not one with a big track record of rising to the occasion. Agirretxe is out for La Real, as is Mikel and Zaldúa and they fell apart defensively a week ago in Villarreal.
Winning his derby debut would be like winning the Christmas lottery for the Scot – but a point, rather than the jackpot, looks a better prospect and the draw is 11/5.
Ref watch: Fernández Borbalán – twenty six matches with Athletic, eight wins [two of which in the Basque derby], twelve defeats and five red cards. With La Real 20 matches, only four wins – one of which the 3-1 defeat of Barcelona last season.
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
They call it the FIFA Virus. Not a pleasant term, but there you go.
It’s damaging, there’s a huge debate about whether a cure exists, and you can catch this bug three, even four times per season.
It’s what Spain calls the affliction which troubles the country’s biggest clubs when they finally get their star players back from international duty and then face a tricky tie (usually away).
It’s also, partly, the reason FIFA introduced the idea of playing internationals on Fridays and Tuesdays.
Thus the biggest clubs around Europe get their players back a little sooner and, eventually, the ‘virus’ might become a little less debilitating.
I raise it because this is the week when wheat and chaff could be forcibly separated.
PAIN IN SPAIN: Iniesta, pictured against Ireland, will miss three games after his international duty injury
Real Madrid travel to Sevilla and Barcelona play in Madrid, always a hostile city for them, and it’s against Getafe.
Whichever side posts a big away performance could significantly influence what’s likely to be a two-way battle for the title. And Barca’s ability to do so has been undermined by a thigh injury to Andrés Iniesta, picked up in Georgia with Spain, will means he misses three matches, while Jordi Alba has returned to base with tonsillitis, too.
You might not know a hell of a lot about the little club from the working class suburb of the Spanish capital but I think Getafe’s coach is pretty extraordinary.
Luis Garcia took Real Madrid’s scalp a couple of weeks ago and last season he and Getafe inflicted a 1-0 defeat on Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. While he was at Levante, Garcia produced a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 win against José Mourinho’s Real Madrid.
Over the last couple of seasons Garcia’s teams have defeated Athletic Madrid (twice), drawn with and beaten Valencia (3-1), put five goals past Sevilla. He’s not only a good organiser who openly admires the idea of making it hard for stylish teams to play and who believes strongly in the high tempo pressing game but he comes from the Mourinho/Benitez school of – win first; ask questions about finesse later.
So it’s particularly in tests like this that the FIFA virus can play a part.
Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Atletico Madrid send South American players like Marcelo, Higuain, Messi, Mascherano, Dani Alves, Diego Alves, Alexis, Jonas and Falcao away to their national teams, and they come back knackered.
Usually it’s an overnight flight back to arrive around Wednesday breakfast, three or four hours sleep if they are lucky then a meal, then training.
After that the working routine between Thursday morning and matchday is the same as normal but the players’ sleep patterns are not.
Those who suffer worst of all from jet lag can spend up to two weeks trying to get their sleep routines back to normal – it adds to dopiness, sluggishness and slower decision making in high-tempo match situations.
Now take the opposition, Getafe for instance. Garcia really lost no more than a handful of players, none of whom had to fly transatlantic.
Barrada, Sarabia, Álvaro, Lacen – they’re important guys but also in the minority in that Garcia had the rest of his squad to work with.
Think about it. Two full weeks, minus a couple of days off to recharge batteries, where defensive tactics and attacking strategies can be worked on over and over again.
Niggling injuries heal, new players get a chance to bed in, the coach preaches his gospel.
Nearly two working weeks with one single, clear-cut focus – it breeds a hungry, fit, aggressive opponent for the jaded, jet lagged big guys.
Last season’s 1-0 defeat at Getafe came shortly after the November international break when Spain’s international players lost to England then flew to Costa Rica and back for a meaningless friendly.
There’s currently a five-point gap between the co-favourites for La Liga, in Barca’s favour. However, the need for them to cope with the hostile test ahead of them on Saturday is apparently exacerbated by Real Madrid’s fixture.
The trip to play Sevilla has often been a classic in recent seasons, not only a place that Los Blancos might drop points but a clash which could provide the most brilliant football imagineable.
But Sevilla have no Freddie Kanouté, no Luis Fabiano, no Adriano, Renato, Alves, Poulsen, Keita or Juande Ramos. The golden era has rusted and on their last two visits Real Madrid have plundered six points and 12 (yes TWELVE) goals, of which Ronaldo has scored seven.
The Andalucians have done some strengthening, notably Diego Lopez in goal and this might well prove to be a firmer examination of Mourinho’s champions. However, prima facie, Barca face the tougher match, the FIFA Virus may be about to bite and, even this early, it could be a big weekend.
Who’s up for it?
Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight into La Liga can regularly be heard on TV and radio. He will be providing regular columns for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football this season. Follow him on twitter here.
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
Getafe will look to turn around a run of five games without a win in La Liga when they host Sevilla this evening. The two teams are only separated by three points, and although Sevilla have won one in their last five they trail Getafe in 12th place.
read more
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
Granada will be hoping a win at Getafe in La Liga will lift them out of the relegation zone, whilst the home side will be eager to turn around their recent run of two straight defeats.
Getafe are the favourites for a win here priced at 20/21, with Granada only winning three times away this season. However, that’s not a dire record and as a result they are not massive outsiders for the win at 3/1. Neither side have had a significant amount of draws this season so far and that outcome looks less likely priced at 12/5, but this kind of game could go any way.
read more
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
Rayo Vallecano will be hoping for their third consecutive win when they play host to Madrid rivals Getafe in tonight’s La Liga clash. Getafe last won at home to Malaga over a month ago though and so will be eager to gain three points and leapfrog to 7th in the table.
read more
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
As Sevilla continue their quest for European football, manager Michel will make a return to his former club Getafe as they go head to head in La Liga at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Monday night (Getafe 13/8, draw 9/4, Sevilla 13/8 – Match Betting).
The Red and Whites stand no chance of qualifying for the Champions League this season, with Spanish powerhouses Real Madrid (5/2 Champions League outright), Barcelona and Valencia looking set to sweep up the top three places in the table.
However, Sevilla find themselves just outside the Europa League qualification places and so the side from the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan look set to do battle with the likes of Osasuna, Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid for a place in Europe’s secondary competition next term.
Michel will be desperate to secure a top seven finish in La Liga this season and three points against his former club would be a massive boost for the Andalusian outfit.
If Sevilla do secure Europa League football it will be largely down to their star striker Alvaro Negredo, who is reportedly attracting interest from a host of top clubs from across the continent.
The 26-year-old has been in fine form in recent weeks and will be going into this game against Getafe full of confidence having bagged himself a brace in the 3-0 victory over Zaragoza on Thursday.
With four wins in their last five outings, Sevilla are a side in form so expect Negredo to cause Getafe all sorts of problems at the back.
As for the Dark Blues, they have been going through mixed form of late but the most important thing for the club and its fans is that they will be retaining their La Liga status for next season.
The club are sat in mid-table and have a nice 14-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone, with games running out for the likes of Sporting Gijon, Real Zaragoza and Racing at the bottom of the table.
Getafe have the worst goal difference of any of the top 15 teams in the league but the club have worked wonders to keep themselves away from the battle at the bottom.
Wins over Barcelona (5/6 Champions League outright), Valencia and Atletico Madrid have proven that Getafe are capable of springing a shock against the bigger teams in Spain.
But with La Liga football all but assured for next season, there may be the temptation to take the foot off the gas a little, with one eye possibly on a nice summer holiday.
The last time these two sides met in the league, Sevilla ran out 3-0 winners at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan back in December and it would not be surprising to see a similar scoreline on Monday night, with Michel getting one over on his former team (Sevilla 3-0 winners 25/1).
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
After another weekend of wonderful La Liga action, round five comes to a close with a mouth-watering clash at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez where Getafe host this year’s surprise package Real Betis (Getafe 6/4, Draw 11/5, Betis 9/5).
In recent times, Getafe have been the darlings of Spanish football, often seen as the little brother of their neighbours Real Madrid. The Azulones have become many people’s second team after a number of plucky performances both home and abroad.
However, they have struggled in recent times and have become relegation candidates due to being forced to sell their best players in order to stay afloat.
This season has been no different and they currently sit in the relegation zone, having only picked up one point so far this term. However, they do have hope as a glance at their squad should be more than enough to convince their fans that they will stay in the top-flight once again.
Their star man is striker Dani Guiza (11/8 to score anytime) who has returned to the club after spells at both Mallorca and Fenerbahce. Once upon a time, Guiza was a regular in the Spain squad and after scoring 27 goals in the 2007-8 season, was one of Europe’s most wanted frontmen. However, he has since struggled due to a number of problems both on and off the pitch and will see his return to Getafe as his chance to prove he still has what it takes.
His performance could depend on the service provided by winger Jaime Gavilan, who is often Luis Garcia Plaza’s side’s main source of inspiration as he has the ability and talent to unlock any defence.
Betis have had a majestic return to La Liga, winning all four of their opening fixtures so far. They have regularly upset the odds against much stronger teams. The Andalucians have done some smart business over the summer and look like they will survive comfortably.
Unfortunately for them, striker Ruben Castro is likely to miss the match but don’t expect them to be short on goals with the likes of Jorge Molina and Roque Santa Cruz (7/4 to score anytime) still available to lead their frontline.
However, much of their success this term has been down to their strong defending and after being sent off earlier this season, rugged centre-half Mario will take it on himself to prove he can be trusted to keep his head. So expect him to be the man to cancel out any threat from Guiza.
This game could be a classic with both teams looking to play open attacking football and it’s almost too tough to call. However, Getafe’s defensive frailties are too much to ignore and although it will be tight, Betis could just sneak it by a single goal (Betis 13/2 to win 1-0).
Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.
Powered by Yahoo! Answers