Paraguay to end Venezuela dream

The second Copa America semi-final in Mendoza on Wednesday evening sees the unlikely pairing of Paraguay and Venezuela going head-to-head for a place in the final on Sunday.

Pre-tournament predictions would have expected hosts Argentina and the mighty Brazil to be amongst the last-four countries looking to be crowned kings of South America.

But with new favourites Uruguay (4/5 Outright Winner) set to face Peru in Tuesday’s first semi-final, all eyes will then be on which of these unfancied teams will be on their way to Buenos Aires this weekend.

Venezuela (13/2 Outright Winner) have already made history by reaching the last-four stages for the first time in their history, while Paraguay (9/4) are in the strange position of making it this far without actually winning a game, having drawn all three group matches, before defeating Brazil on penalties at the weekend.

Therefore we are in for an intriguing encounter between two sides which went into the tournament expected to just make up the numbers in the presence of their more illustrious CONMEBOL members.

We only need to look back to last week for the two sides’ last head-to-head when they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the final Group B clash which ensured Venezuela qualified behind group winners Brazil, while Paraguay progressed as one of the best third-placed teams.

A repeat of that scoreline (50/1 Correct Score) would be a great advertisement for the Copa America, but it’s unlikely the game will be as open given that there is a lot more at stake on this occasion.

Venezuela were the only team to win in 90 minutes when they stunned Chile in the quarter-finals with Malaga striker Jose Salomon Rondon (5/2 Anytime Goalscorer) showing some good form and possibly the man coach Cesar Farias will look towards to fire La Vinotinto into the final.

Rondon scored his only goal of the tournament against Paraguay in the group game, while the side have shared the load around as Gabriel Cichero, Nicolas Fedor, Cesar Gonzalez, Grenddy Perozo and Oswaldo Vizcarrondo have also been on target.

Paraguay will be aiming to secure a first win of the Copa America in the match (20/21 To Win 90 Minutes), although their coach Gerado Martino will not mind if they reach the final on the back of another penalty shoot-out win.

The 1979 winners have not been this far since 1983 so a place in the final will mean just as much to La Albirroja as it will for Venezuela so they will be geared up for a huge match for their nation.

The likes of Manchester City hitman Roque Santa Cruz (6/1 First Goalscorer), Wigan defender Antolin Alcaraz, and Sunderland’s Christian Riveros are all known to Premier League fans and have all found the net for Paraguay in the tournament.

Nelson Valdes and Lucas Barrios have also been on target in the tournament as, like Venezuela, Paraguay have also got goals right through their team.

Paraguay also have veteran goalkeeper Justo Villar between the sticks still brimming with confidence following his man-of-the-match performance in ensuring a dominant Brazil could not find a way past him for the entire 120 minutes of their quarter-final clash and then even failed to convert a single penalty in the shoot-out.

If Villar is just as commanding against Venezuela then that will give the rest of his team a lift in their attempt to break down the opposition and I fancy Paraguay to just have the edge, but they might have to take the long route through once again.

Prediction: Draw 90 minutes @ 21/10
Value Bet: Rondon 1st Goal 1-1 Draw Scorecast @ 33/1.

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Paraguay poised for Brazil shock

We now know two of the four teams who will contest the semi-finals of the Copa America, after Uruguay and Peru upset the odds in Saturday’s quarter-finals. Paraguay and Venezuela will be looking to do something similar when they take on Brazil and Chile respectively.

The Brazilians have been poor thus far and we feel there is a case to have a serious look at the Paraguayans ending any hopes the Samba Boys had of a third successive South American title.

Brazil v Paraguay (8pm)

Those who have seen much of the Copa America might have confused Brazil with Torquay United – the boys in yellow have been that bad, up until their 4-2 victory over Ecuador in the group stages. Coach Mano Menezes has so far failed to get anything like the best out of Brazil thus far in this tournament and they now face a team who came within minutes of beating the Selecao in the group stages. A late Fred equaliser saved the 7/4 favourites from an embarrassing defeat against a Paraguay team underrated by many.

Coach Gerado Martino has been in charge of Paraguay since 2006 and steered the South American nation to a quarter-final berth in the World Cup 12 months ago, eventually going out to Spain. While not the most attractive side left in the tournament, they are a tough nut to crack and have a physical side to them that many nations in the Copa America can’t call upon. They don’t score many and might have sneaked through the group stages but they are capable of an upset, as shown in 2004 when they beat Brazil in their last Copa meeting with the Samba Boys.

Brazil might have a list of star players as long as the Amazon River, but they look more like a collection of individuals than a team, unlike Paraguay. If La Albirroja can keep the likes of Neymar, Pato and Robinho quiet (easier said than done) there is no reason why they can’t upset the odds. Paraguay are 9/2 to win in 90 minutes but that is probably best left alone, with draw HT and draw FT at 21/5 the most likely outcome if Paraguay are to go through via extra time and maybe penalties.

Chile v Venezuela (11:15pm)

Much like Paraguay, Chile are another nation badly under rated and one who can’t be overlooked to go on and win the whole thing, based on how they have played so far. Arguably they looked the best team in the competition when navigating the group stages, beating Peru and Mexico, while drawing with Uruguay.

As demonstrated at the World Cup they have an attacking line to be feared, lead by Alexis Sanchez, and should have too much for Venezuela, who have a dreadful record against the Chileans. Venezuela have only ever beaten Chile once in 21 matches and have never reached the semi-finals of the Copa America. While we could have three upsets in the quarter-finalsm this is the one that should play out like everyone is expecting.

Chile are 8/13 to win inside 90 minutes, while you’d do well to consider Humberto Suazo at 6/5, Sanchez at 11/8 and Matias Fernandez at 7/4 to score at anytime for La Roja.

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Paraguay coach unconcerned by Spanish threat

Paraguay star Roque Santa CruzParaguay coach Gerardo Martino has insisted his team have nothing to fear from facing Spain in the World Cup quarter-finals.

The South Americans set up a last-eight meeting with the European champions after defeating Japan on penalties on Monday but will start the game as underdogs as tournament outsiders (Paraguay 50/1 to win World Cup outright).

Whereas their opponents, led by Spanish ace David Villa, have started to play with freedom, Paraguay have struggled to create clear goal-scoring opportunities and have scored only three goals in four games in South Africa.

Spanish midfielder Xavi claimed after their 1-0 win over Portugal that his country are now starting to hit form after a slow start to the finals.

But Martino is not concerned by the statistics and believes playing Spain will give his side extra space to express themselves.

“In three of the four World Cup matches we had to take the game to our opponents and that’s difficult for a team like ours,” said Martino.

“Our future rivals will let us play. Spain will give us more space.”

In a forgettable encounter in Pretoria, Paraguay squeezed past Japan 5-3 on penalties after the game had finished goalless after normal and extra time.

It is the first time in their history that Paraguay have reached the quarter-final stage of the World Cup and Martino reckons his side deserve their place in the draw, knowing that victory against Spain will take them through to a semi-final against either Argentina or Holland.

Martino said: “It’s never nice for a match to be decided in this way but I think we sought the win a little more.

“I think we were lucky in the penalty shoot-out. That made the difference.

“Perhaps it wasn’t the match people wanted to see but I don’t think either team has anything to reproach themselves for.

“When you look at how the players played, the solidarity they showed, their enthusiasm, their will to make the history books, both teams did it the same way.

“To speak of an achievement in getting to the quarter-finals is all right but to consider this my greatest achievement is, I think, a bit premature.”

Spain and Paraguay will line-up in the fourth and final quarter-final on Saturday night (Paraguay to win 13/2, Spain 1/2, draw 13/5).

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Paraguay suffer Ireland defeat

Kevin DoyleParaguay’s preparations for the World Cup in South Africa received a setback when they were beaten 2-1 by the Republic of Ireland (Paraguay 66/1 – Outright).

Kevin Doyle and Liam Lawrence were on target for the Irish, before Lucas Barrios reduced the arrears 13 minutes into the second half.

Ireland would have been going to the World Cup themselves, but for France’s controversial goal in their qualification play-off.

And they showed that they were worthy of making it to South Africa with an assured performance which left the Paraguayans with plenty to think about before they board the plane to South Africa. The World Cup betting suggests they should make it out of their group, but they could be in for a tough time.

The South Americans had plenty of the ball in the first half but could not break down their hosts until the final seconds of the half.

Midfielder Cristian Riveros, who has signed for Sunderland, was instrumental in much of Paraguay’s best moves but they rarely managed to get sight of goal.

Ireland had Roque Santa Cruz (100/1 – World Cup 2010 Top Goalscorer) to thank for their opening goal after seven minutes.

Damien Duff and Lawrence worked a free-kick move before Duff delivered the ball into the box, where defender Paul McShane attempted and failed to execute an overhead kick.

But the ball reared up off the turf and Santa Cruz instinctively headed it on to his own crossbar, allowing Doyle to pounce on the rebound and score.

Paraguay might have hit back within two minutes but midfielder Jonathan Santana’s rising shot sailed over Keiren Westwood’s crossbar.

Ireland went 2-0 up when Doyle chested down Stephen Kelly’s cross to Lawrence, who thumped it past goalkeeper Aldo Bobadilla with the help of a deflection off defender Denis Caniza.

Westwood was called on for the first time in injury time when he tipped Antolin Alcaraz’s speculative effort around the post, but he was otherwise untroubled.

Ireland might have killed the game off within minutes of the restart after creating two good chances in quick succession. Doyle saw his left foot shot on the turn test Bobadilla, then the keeper blocked a shot from Duff.

The South Americans halved the deficit when Gamarra and Claudio Morel played their way around McShane for Gamarra to slide a pass to Barrios, who sent it right-footed past Westwood.

Both managers made changes as Trapattoni handed senior international debuts to Cillian Sheridan, Paul Green and Keith Fahey, while opposite number Gerardo Martino dispensed with three-quarters of his starting midfield.

In the meantime, Westwood was grateful to see Gamarra’s teasing 70th-minute cross run harmlessly out of play and Lawrence intercept substitute Aureliano Torres’ superb pass to Gamarra with the visitors making a late push.

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Santa Cruz delivers Paraguay win

Paraguay (50/1 to win World Cup 2010) needed a late penalty from Roque Santa Cruz to earn a 1-0 win over North Korea on Saturday.

Santa Cruz beat keeper Ri Myong Guk after the referee ruled substitute Nam Song Chol had handled the ball in the area.

Paraguay hit the post twice in a seven-minute spell midway through the second half.

Choe Kum Chol had North Korea’s best chance in the 35th but lifted his shot over the bar.

North Korea (12/1 to qualify from Group G) were without Japan-based An Yong Hak and Jong Tae Se who had not been released by their clubs.
Santa Cruz, who had looked off the pace for most of the match, stroked his shot high into the net to settle the match.

Marcelo Estigarribia and Eduardo Ledesma hit the post for Paraguay while Ri Jung-il nearly turned Jonathan Santana’s low cross into his own goal as the South Americans had the best of the second half.

North Korea, who drew 0-0 with South Africa in their previous match, defended tenaciously and showed flashes of skill in attack as they occasionally threatened Diego Barreto’s goal.

Lacking physical bulk, the North Koreans rarely troubled Paraguayan goalkeeper Diego Barreto despite the darting efforts of home bred North Korean striker Mun In-Guk and Russian league player Hong Yong-Jo.

Both teams are holding training camps in the region, Paraguay (7/2 to win Group F) in Evains-Les-Bains on the French side of Lake Geneva and North Korea in the Alpine village of Ayent.

Paraguayan coach Gerardo Martino admitted afterwards that his side had tailed off in the first half against the organised Korean defence, despite a clear athletic advantage in one-on-one challenges.

“That’s the characteristic of the North Korean team,” he said. “They defend well, can create difficult situations near goal, and are very quick on the break.”

“In the first half we weren’t very productive except for the first ten minutes,” Martino added.

But Paraguay picked up the pace in the second half, as Santa Cruz pressured the North Koreans into errors.

Long range shots from Marcelo Estigarribia and Eduardo Ledesma hit the woodwork before the penalty finally gave Paraguay the scoreline to reflect their efforts.

Paraguay next play Ireland in Dublin on May 25, the same day North Korea meet fellow World Cup qualifier Greece in Austria.

Paraguay are in Group F at the World Cup, which starts on June 11, with champions Italy, New Zealand and Slovakia.

North Korea are in Group G with Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast.

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