It is hard to look past a Porto victory in Wednesday’s Europa League Final in Dublin, but Domingos Paciencia’s Sporting Braga (11/4 Outright Winners) will make it very tough for the odds-on favourites.
The Braga coach has announced that this will be his last game in charge and, while he is not expected to be short of job offers for next season, it will be a huge feather in his cap if he can mastermind an upset.
However, his only chance of stifling a Porto side (4/9 Match Betting) that smashed 17 goals past Spartak Moscow and Villarreal in the quarter-final and semi-final ties, is to instruct his players to defend deep and hit the Portuguese champions on the counter-attack.
It is a tactic which Braga have utilised well in matches where they have been underdogs this season, notably in the Champions League play-off round against Sevilla at the Sanchez Pizjuan (4-3) and in the Group H home clash with Arsenal (2-0).
Paciencia’s approach to getting Braga through the knockout rounds was similar, although less spectacular, as the Minho men recorded narrow 2-1 and 1-0 aggregate victories over Lech Poznan and Liverpool to reach the last eight.
They then relied on the away goals rule to get past Dynamo Kiev (1-1) and Benfica (2-2), but that cannot come to their rescue in the winner takes all Dublin clash at the Aviva Stadium.
Paciencia cannot afford to let Porto’s pacy, creative players cause havoc by running at his back four and in order to shackle Hulk, Varela and Cristian Rodriguez he will deploy a 4-5-1 formation with Alan (11/1 First Goalscorer) or Lima (9/1) the likely lone frontman.
Braga fans have seen the goals dry up since Matheus, scorer of both goals against Arsenal, was sold to Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in January.
They have managed to find the net only 20 times in 21 domestic league and Europa League matches since the start of February, while Porto by contrast have scored 55 in that same period – Porto 11/10 in Handicap (-1).
While stopping the service to Colombian hitman Radomel Falcao (7/2 First Goalscorer) will be key, Braga must also maintain their discipline and defend any set pieces they will inevitably give away resolutely.
It is a lot to ask with the amount of attacking talent in the Porto ranks and, should they concede an early goal, it will need a Plan B from the coach to get back into the match.
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Spanish outfit Villarreal are looking to put a spanner in the works of a potential all-Portuguese Europa League final in Dublin next month ahead of their semi-final first leg with Porto as they aim to reach a first major European final at the third attempt (6/5 Villarreal To Qualify).