The post WATCH: Graham Hunter washes his hands and could clean up with this bumper 77/1 La Liga treble appeared first on Paddy Power Blog.
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While Barcelona are going viral by taking the mickey out of anyone and everyone who crosses their part, the rest of La Liga is trying to catch up the huge gap between them and Luis Enrique’s Catalans. Matches this week will change the top and bottom of the table regardless of results, we could see Villareal make a real statement.
What’s the best way to announce yourself to the Spanish media? Score the winner in a derby match, in the home of your arch rivals, and that’s what Mikel Oyarzabal will want to do. At just 18, there’s the question about whether he’ll have the grit to take a kicking from the Bilbao defenders. The last four Basque derbies have been draws, Athletic haven’t won one in the last eight meetings, it’s a shocking record. Don’t expect a lot of goals either. I’m thinking another draw with ‘Bigfoot’ Oyarzabal to score
This is a huge game for Real if they want to get back into the title chase. But it’s sticky. Malaga have been the kings of the goal less draw in Spain this year, including getting one at the Bernabeu. And with Raphael Varane missing for Madrid, there’s a chance of a shock. It’s Zidane’s first real test as a manager, the fixture congestion comes in from here, and away at a hostile ground, I’m tipping a score draw
Atleti have a six point lead over Villareal, and Fernando Torress after going months without scoring has two in his last two, finally taking him past the 100 goal mark in La Liga. Villareall have Europa League during the week, so will want to rest some of their bigger names in preparation for that. Atleti are in the title race, and another simple win to keep pace. Torres to score and Atletico to win
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It’s been an interesting week to say the least in Spain. Barcelona are beginning to get that familiar stranglehold on the division, while only six points seperate the bottom five teams. This week it’s the turn of Celta Vigo to try and stop the unstoppable, but they have done so before.
Barcelona have finally got their Player of the Month awards, and they’ve now gone 29 games at the Camp Nou unbeaten – that’s another record broken by Luis Enrique and I believe they’ll make it thirty. Celta love frustrating his side though, beating them 4-1 and winning at the Camp in recent seasons. Barca have been starting slowly this season, so go for a HT/FT of Draw/Barcelona at
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Valencia vs Espanyol
IT WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEK. I am certain of it. Valencia will win this game. They’ve got Alcacer and Caicedo coming back into form, they’re up against an Espanyol side in absolute freefall, and at home at the Mestalla, they should come out on top. Then again, I’ve said that for a couple of weeks and they’ve underperformed considerably. If it doesn’t happen now, it might not ever. Back a Valencia win with Alcacer anytime.
Real Madrid vs Atletic Bilbao
There is one key battle in this game and that is between Raphael Varane and Aritz Aduriz. The 35 year old is proving everyone wrong by continuing his scoring streak and he is the reason that Bilbao are where they are this season. If Varane can get on top and bully him early, it’ll be key to a Madrid win. Bilbao are depleted, and away from home I just don’t think they’ll have enough. Back the Blancos with both teams to score
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At the start of the new year there’s a three-horse race for the La Liga title. Barcelona’s attacking trio of Suarez, Messi and Neymar are scoring at will and even though things aren’t quite right at the Bernabeu Real are keeping close to the defending champions. And we can’t overlook Atletico Madrid. The 2013-14 champions look like they’ll be there or thereabouts come squeaky bum time, or whatever the Spanish equivalent is. Graham Hunter takes a look at how they’ll all kick off 2016.
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The last time Villarreal visited the Camp Nou they were pumped. Manager Marcelino García Toral said he had just lost a game scripted by his worst enemies. Well they must really hate him now. A 15 hour return from Minsk was the preparation they have this time around.
Watch the video below:
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Bumpers Bet: Neymar or Suarez anytime and a home win @ 10/11
Bumpers Bet: Reyes to score first and a 1-1 draw @ 50/1
Bumpers Bet: Home win and Borja Baston to score first @ 20/1
Bumpers Bet: Home win and Aduriz to score first @ 16/1
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Getafes membership drive involving a porno that was supposed to help Getafe loving men put the ball in the net for Getafe loving women didn’t quite work, but they’ll need all the support they can muster in the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez when Barcelona come to visit.
Bumpers banker bet of the weekend is Real Madrid to tonk Las Palmas by at least three goals and Ronaldo to score first. We can then take all our winnings and move to the Bahamas.
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Watch the video below.
Graham’s Bet: Away win & Suarez to score in a wincast @5/6
Graham’s Bet: Score Draw & Vela to score @ 60/1
Graham’s Bet: Home win & Parejo to score in a wincast @ 7/2
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Three years ago Antoine Griezmann made his worst mistake getting drunk in Paris and costing him a year in the national side. Fast forward three years and he’s playing out of his skin.
Jackson Martinez scored his first Champions League goal for Atleti in midweek, Torres is scoring and making and Ángel Correa is a nightmare to play against – Home win and both teams to score with Jackson and Griezmann to score.
Watch the video below.
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Graham’s Bet: Atleti to win & Griezmann to score in a wincast @ 2/1
Graham’s Bet: Barca to win & Neymar to score in a wincast @ 8/15
Graham’s Bet: Score draw & Nolito to score @ 33/1
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Okay, okay – I hear you Paddy Power punters.
I hear that Atlético Madrid are your most-backed La Liga team to win the title.
So you pretty much didn’t care if the Istanbul inhabitants hoisted their ‘Welcome To Hell’ banners when Diego Simeone’s team reached the Galatasaray stadium on Wednesday.
That was Europe. Pah!
But you’d obviously prefer it if Eibar’s inhabitants, players and hotel owners were all ‘hippy peace and love’ and ‘San Fransisco flowers in your hair’ when Atleti go to the Ipurúa stadium on Saturday night [Sky Sports 19.30]
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The easier Atleti pocket three points the happier you’re gonna feel. Right?
Three points? Quite possibly.
Peace and love? Ain’t gonna happen baby.
Atleti may be kindly regarded by those with rebel sentiments but they are still a ‘Madrid‘ team travelling to the Basque country.
Up there you don’t just get another notch on the bed post for sticking it to any team from the Spanish capital – you get a diamond-encrusted king-sized, four poster with a nubile young chambermaid awaiting your orders. Ribena or Rioja I mean.
Eibar’s right sided midfielder Keko began at Atleti and knows what’s awaiting his former club.
“With coach Mendilibar every one of us knows there’s a single obligation if we want to be picked. “We have to snarl and bite and run like dogs of war. “The day any of us wants the ball to feet or thinks we can play luxury football they’ll be dropped and we’ll lose”
Right now, the world seems upside down.
Atleti, league winners in 2014, Champions League finalists that same month and trophy- winners every single season since 2009/10 are sixth to Eibar’s fifth.
Unlike Cholo Simeone’s team the Basques are unbeaten and Eibar also have the better goal difference.
But since Eibar repaired their pitch, which was like the Somme, good teams go there, feel unstressed in front of what is [since a couple of weeks ago] a 6,000 maximum crowd and knock the ball about.
Meaning Eibar have a task on their hands.
Antoine Griezmann remains a right good guy to back for both first goal and any-time. Jackson Martinez, too, merits some any-time action.
Buzzing with form given freedom to roam across the front line Griezmann got two in Istanbul in midweek – both off his left foot. [As have 9 of the Frenchman’s last 11 goals been. Hint hint]
Eibar are a cracking story, represent great values – but have their work cut out.
Barça, now here’s a shock, profile as a home banker [19.30 Sunday, Sky Sports]
They host Levante, popularly known as the Frogs, who are knee-deep in trouble here.
Geddit? Knee-deep, knee-deep. Frog noises. Okay, never mind.
The Spanish and European champions were much more vulnerable to shocks at home than away last season.
Not only did they lose to Celta and Málaga at the Camp Nou they lost to nil, too [0-1 and 0-1]
Luis Enrique’s team still start without Claudio Bravo, Dani Alves, Gerard Piqué and Rafinha and come off the back of consecutive tiring, testing away matches in Madrid and Rome.
But that should be a question of the win margin, not whether Barcelona triumph.
Every so often the Catalans find this lot a bit indigestible and the margin ends in a single goal.
Far more often it’s a walloping.
Of the last five Levante visits to the Camp Nou Barcelona have scored five twice, seven once – but the others have been 1-0 and 2-1.
Here’s a stat to help you make your decision.
In their seven competitive matches so far Barça have hit the woodwork SEVEN times.
An indication of sloppiness/bad luck? Or that they are just about to punch someone’s lights out goal-wise?
The ‘villains’ have been Rafinha, Pedro, Piqué, Sergi Roberto, Mascherano, Luis Suárez and Messi.
Perm between the Argentinian, Neymar and Suárez for first goal – but I’ve a slight preference for Suárez this time out because he’s bursting with form and confidence while both Neymar and Messi gave evidence, in Rome, that jet lag from the international break still wasn’t out of their systems.
Madrid host Granada early on Saturday [15:00 kick off UK time] and they will win. By 3+.
James Rodríguez, Gareth Bale, Sergio Ramos and Danilo all out injured isn’t a happy stat if you fancy Madrid to rack up five or six goals.
But back Rafa’s boys to win, back them by three or more and back Ronaldo for everything short of the Labour leadership.
Eight goals in his last two games is nothing. Last season he smacked 20 in eleven Liga outings and just five months ago he pumped Granada for five in a 9-1 win in this fixture.
Griezmann, Jackson, Suárez, Messi, Ronaldo for first goalscorer or any time scorer; left footed goal from Griezmann; one goal win for Atleti; Barça and Madrid to win by over two and over three respectively. You’re welcome.
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At the beginning of Primal Scream’s brilliant 1990 tune ‘Loaded’ when Frank Maxwell asks Peter Fonda: ‘Just what is it that you want to do?’ Fonda knows the answer.
“We wanna be free to do what we wanna do
“We’re gonna have a good time. “We’re gonna have a party”
And if you asked the Real Madrid fans that same question you’d get exactly the same answer.
Sick of being second best to Barcelona, sick of football they view as pragmatic they want their cake and to eat it.
With champagne, and golden spoons and second helpings.
But if you asked the President, Florentino Pérez or Madrid’s debutant coach, Rafa Benítez the same ‘just what is it that you want to do?’ question the answer might be different.
Much more pragmatic.
Thursday’s Champions League draw gives them a group perfectly balanced not only for an assault on Europe but for the right kind of early season test.
Paris St Germain have shown over the last three seasons with Barcelona and Chelsea [ten games, two wins, four draws, four defeats] that they are on the rise and that they can threaten anyone on their day.
Not a side Madrid have to fear but one which will mean Los Blancos will need to focus and find top gear [no Primal Scream reference there] in order to subdue.
Madrid start at home, and their first away trip is far easier and less tiring than PSG’s.
Their final group game is at home and against, nominally, the weakest team. Even the schedule is on their side.
However, and this might be heretical, is winning the Champions League actually Benitez’s priority?
‘Just what is it you want me to do, Florentino?’ might well be Rafa’s question to the Madrid President.
Los Blancos have won the Spanish title twice in the last eight years.
Their fans and some of their ‘cyclops-vision’ media not only crave it, they crave the opportunity to wave two fingers at their city neighbours, Atlético, who won the title more recently, and Barcelona, who’ve dominated La Liga for a decade.
More, Carlo Ancelotti was shown the door in the summer just 12 months after winning the Champions League so dramatically against Atleti.
A victory which, if you consider the alternative for Madrid, should really have earned him another five years of job safety at the Bernabéu. It didn’t.
So whatever the sheen of Madrid’s history says, whatever the threat of Barça closing the European Cup gap between them still further Rafa Benítez must prioritise doing something he’s not achieved since the last time he coached in Spain, eleven years ago – winning the title.
Will that undermine trying to win La undécima? Madrid’s eleventh Champions Cup?
The answer lies with Ronaldo. Whatever the club’s ambitions he wants more Champions Leagues, he wants to haul Messi back in the Ballon D’Or voting and, judging by his variety of sour looks in Monte Carlo on Thursday, he wants to win the UEFA Best Player In Europe back.
Vitally, too, Ronaldo wants to edge ahead of Messi with whom he’s tied at 77 goals apiece at the top of the all-time Champions League scoring list.
With nine games of Rafa in charge Madrid have failed to score on five occasions, usually with Ronaldo absent.
So, I think there’s some fun in the Ronaldo-Messi betting.
Ronaldo has significantly outscored his rival over the last four Champions League seasons – by nine.
The last time Messi beat Ronaldo to UCL top scorer was in 2011/12 – coincidentally the last time he had a shot at Bayer Leverkusen or Bate, Barça’s new group rivals.
Against Bernd Leno, Leverkusen keeper, Messi scored six in two matches. In Borisov he put two past BATE.
Clues for this season?
Ronaldo hasn’t faced [and thus not scored against!] any of Madrid’s group rivals.
So, a priori, it might be worth an investment that Messi outscores Ronaldo this Uefa season, finishes Champions League top scorer and, thus, establishes the all-time lead.
Valencia, qualifiers, have a group in which Zenit and Lyon are both within Los Che’s orbit – beatable but, equally, capable of exploiting Nuno Espirito Santo’s team if they perform dozily.
The key to qualification is taking at least seven points from the first three games – home to Zenit, away to Lyon and then home to the weakest club, Gent.
In fact having home then away back-to-back matches with the Belgians is manna from heaven in terms of qualifying for the knockouts.
If you run a fantasy football team or like to look for less than obvious scorers then think about Sofiane Feghouli who just loves Uefa football and consistently rises to the challenge.
Their Group to Luis
Barcelona, who I think are capable of being the first to retain this competition, were given a draw that the naive think was wonderful but which will concern Luis Enrique.
Ex coach of Roma he’ll understand how hostile it is there and that starting at the Olympic Stadium in Italy’s capital is no ‘gimme’.
That their third fixture is also away, in Belorussia, means that the reigning champions need to start with concentration and hunger.
You’re laughing at me? BATE Borisov you splutter?
Beat Athletic Bilbao last season, thumped Bayern Munich the season before. BATE better than Barça, no. A niggly little test, yes.
Which leaves the two sides who play at the Sanchez Pizjuan on Sunday night [19.30, Sky] – Sevilla and Atlético.
Atleti catch Benfica [whose striker Jonas didn’t mind a goal or an assist against the Colchoneros during his time with Valencia] at a good time given their consistent sales policy and the loss of influential coach Jorge Jesus.
Galatasaray and Astana carry their levels of threat/difficulty but Diego Simeone’s side is so hard working, so well balanced and so bloody stubborn that they’ll win the group regardless.
Sevilla? Well aside from the €20m cash windfall of qualifying the Champions League has brought them the reality of fighting for elbow room at Europe’s elite table.
Manchester City, Juventus and Borussia Mönchengladbach [who Sevilla put out of Europe last season] may prove too much for qualification, especially after losing three key players in Vidal, M’Bia and Bacca and needing to integrate new guys like Immobile, Konoplyanka and Llorente.
But, could Sevilla surprise everyone again by qualifying? Might they even retain the Europa League for the second consecutive time if not?
As for Sunday, it’s now six Liga and Cup matches since Sevilla beat Atleti at home.
There’s ill feeling between the sides who jostle to be considered third best in Spain – nearly eight bookings per match, average, over the last four meetings if you are a card-counter.
A splurge of reds in the Copa a couple of seasons ago.
Sevilla are nobody’s mugs though having lost just once at home since March 2014 [2-3 to a Ronaldo hat trick in May]
Griezmann, Llorente and a Coke/Koke any time might pay.
Score draw. 2-2 at 14/1.
Atleti: Oblak; Juanfran, Godín, Gímenez, Felipe; Koke, Gabi, Tiago; Oliver; Griezmann, Torres/Jackson
Sevilla: Beto: Coke, Rami, Kolo, Tremoulinas: Banega, Krykowiak: Vitolo, Iborra, Reyes: Immobile/Llorente
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Strip away all the back-stories: Buffon and Pirlo back in Berlin where they won the World Cup; Suárez facing a tense re-match with Evra and Chiellini; Xavi’s last game for Barcelona – and what you get is your core story – ‘Do you dare bet against Messi?’
Football, the ultimate team sport, is once again under his thumb.
Since January 4 this year Juve, as a squad, have scored 60 times in all three of their competitions.
Since January 4 Messi, alone, has scored 36 and given 14 goal assists – it’s completely remarkable.
He ripped up the Copa del Rey final last weekend with two beautiful goals and a clever part in the third.
When the big games arrive – so does Lionel Andrés.
One of my early interviews with him was Autumn 2006 when he was admitting that it had been a flash of temper which made him refuse to go down to the pitch in Paris and celebrate with his team mates after Barça beat Arsenal in the Champions League final.
Not being named in the match squad by Frank Rijkaard had absolutely infuriated him.
He closed that subject with a:
God willing I’ll be back to lift that trophy a few times in the future.
Well, he’s had the opportunity twice and in both 2009 and 2011 he took that opportunity by scoring past Edwin Van Der Sar twice.
Not a bad record. (Ex Juventus keeper Van Der Sar was 38 when he first conceded to Messi in a Champions League final, Gigi Buffon is 37).
But add this context. Messi has played in 23 ‘final’ matches for Barcelona – 12 ‘one-off’ finals and 11 other ‘home-and-away’ finals. 23 matches … 20 Messi goals.
Of those 18 finals he’s only lost three.
And it might guide you to know that the only one-game finals Barcelona have lost with Messi in their side are the ones where he hasn’t scored – the 2006 Spanish Supercup and the Spanish Copa finals of 2011 and 2014.
Stop Messi and you have a chance – that’s the message.
During 2015 he’s shown his big-game mentality. Goals home and away against the reigning champions – Atlético. Goals in key matches against Valencia, Sevilla, Athletic and the Catalan derby with Espanyol plus a nifty assist for the first goal against Madrid in the Clásico.
Notwithstanding all that – IF you want to oppose him, oppose Barça then perhaps there’s a gentle hint.
He’s gone from having scored eight in six Champions League games during the 2014 group stage to having scored twice in six games in the 2015 knock-out matches.
Okay – he was just stunning despite not scoring in the home win over Manchester City
And the two he did get, plus an assist, were in the epic 3-0 semi-final win over Bayern.
But, figure it as you wish, there’s been a drop-off in him hitting the net in the Champions League this calendar year.
So, how do you rate the test that lies in front of him?
He’s never played Juventus competitively, never played Italy either. Thus it is that despite he and Buffon having played well over 1500 competitive club and international matches between them they’ve never gone toe-to-toe.
Who wins – the good big one or the great little one? Lucky it’s not boxing.
Might Buffon (below) in any way intimidate Messi – it’s not so ludicrous?
Messi’s penalty misses tend to come against keepers he thinks loom large in the goal. Something he once told me about Abbiatti at Milan.
Speaking of Milan, Messi’s faced the defensive strategies of Juve coach Maxi Allegri eight times in the Champions League when he’s been in charge of the Rossoneri. Eight times, eight goals.
Where else might there be some fun? I pointed out last week that Barcelona have just begun to drift a little from nearly an entire season of excellence defending set plays or the ball into the box from open play.
But conceding like that to Bayern, Deportivo La Coruña and now Athletic [Iñaki Williams] in the Copa final tends to indicate that this is where Juve will surely concentrate. Chiellini, Pogba, Vidal, Morata all look like goalscorer candidates.
Of the two golden veterans, Pirlo (above) and Xavi, only the Italian is sure to start. But is Iniesta fully fit after his calf problem? Might Xavi get some game time? Probably, yes.
Pirlo scoring a direct free kick ain’t the daftest idea, Pirlo perhaps winning the MVP [if there’s a market on that] isn’t outright crazy.
Xavi said last week:
I adore watching Pirlo play, we’ve been facing each other for club and country since we were kids.
They’ll probably be playing together in Qatar from next season.
So, Xavi? Well he has a remarkable record. Goal assists in each of the two Champions League finals in which he’s played. A goal assist in each of the two European Championship Finals in which he’s played.
A goal and a goal-assist in two of this three Copa Finals against Athletic Bilbao, a goal against Juventus the last time they faced each other, a goal assist in the World Cup semi final, a goal and an assist in the World Club Cup final.
If he’s on the pitch at any stage on Saturday night then you might want to back him as an anytime goalscorer.
This is quite possibly Barcelona’s tightest final since Sampdoria took them to extra-time in 1992.
I reckon both teams to score. Then either 2-1 Barcelona or 2-2 and penalties. But if Messi wants it, if Messi performs – don’t back against him. It’s that simple.
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