Uruguay to edge unlikely Copa final

Uruguay and Paraguay go head-to-head in an unlikely Copa America final in Buenos Aires on Sunday in what looks like being a bridge too far for underdogs Paraguay (Uruguay 4/11, Paraguay 2/1 – Outright winner).

Gerardo Martino’s side have actually yet to win a game in the whole tournament – having advanced through their group by drawing all three games before winning on penalties in both the quarter and semi-finals following goalless draws.

So, with that stat in mind, it is no surprise Uruguay, who have been the stand-out team in Argentina, are the hot favourites to lift the 42nd Copa America.

This has been an unpredictable competition though and Oscar Tabarez’s men will do well not to underestimate their opponents, who have built on last summer’s impressive showing at the World Cup and caught plenty of countries by surprise.

Built on a solid defence, which helped them past both Brazil and Venezuela in the knock-out stage, they know how to stifle more talented opposition.

The critics would say Paraguay also know how to stifle the game in general after successive 0-0 draws, but playing for penalties against a formidable Uruguay outfit could cost them dearly on Sunday.

They will certainly be hard to break down and Martino, who is forced to watch the game from the stands after being suspended following an on-field fracas in the aftermath of the semi-final win, will set them up with the emphasis firmly being on defence.

However, in Luis Suarez, Uruguay have a player who, on his day, can be unplayable and the Liverpool striker will be desperate for a goal to pick up the golden boot award as he sits tied with Sergio Aguero on three goals going into the final.

His strike-partner Diego Forlan has failed to hit the heights in Argentina so far, but he remains a top-quality striker and will be eager to show his true form in one of the biggest games in world football. Therefore, a punt on the Atletico Madrid man to score anytime at 11/8 is well worth a bet.

Paraguay may fancy their chances of keeping Uruguay at bay and taking the game to extra time when anything can happen but a narrow 1-0 win for Uruguay at 18/5 looks like a wise wager.

As has been the case with much of the tournament, don’t expect a cracker although, considering what’s at stake, neither of these two will be too concerned about that.

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Mexico to Copa load of Uruguay

If you have been betting on this year’s Copa America you are probably wondering what is going on with the likes of Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina. Just one win has been recorded between the three powerhouses of South American football. Having drawn both their opening matches Uruguay are staring a first round exit in the face. Only a win over a youthful Mexico side will do. Can Diego Forlan and co finally come good when it counts?

The Celeste were expected to challenge Argentina and Brazil in their quests for the Copa America after so impressively reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup last year. However, life has been far from simple for Uruguay and they have found themselves in a tougher group than many expected, with Peru and Chile having impressed. Draws against Chile and Peru has left Uruguay needing a win against Mexico to make it through, with the CONCACAF Gold Cup winners having lost their previous two matches.

As expected Uruguay are the 2/5 favourites, with Mexico a big 7/1 and the draw 14/5. The last time these two sides met was in the group stages of the World Cup, Luis Suarez getting the only goal of the game as both nations progressed to the latter stages. From that Mexican team that played in Rustenberg, South Africa, only Giovanni Dos Santos is expected to feature.

For those of you who haven’t followed the build-up to the tournament the Mexican FA suspended a number of their top players for ill discipline and have had to name a very youthful squad for the Copa America after their exploits in the Gold Cup. They are the whipping boys of the group and if Uruguay don’t get a result against them questions will be asked to where it has all gone wrong from 12 months ago.

The names that impressed at the World Cup are still there, Diego Lugano, Cristian Rodriquez, Forlan and Suarez. However, things don’t appear to be clicking at this time for Oscar Tabarez’s men and time is running out for them to get it right. History is on their side in this competition, they are the joint-most successful team in Copa America history and have reached the semi-finals or final in the last four tournaments.

They need a spark and based on his form for Liverpool before the end of the season Suarez might be the man to provide it. He is 4/1 first/last goalscorer and evens to score anytime, the same odds as Forlan. However, while Forlan endured a torrid season at Atletico Madrid and comes into the tournament in no real form, Suarez impressed in the Premier League and,  like Lionel Messi for Argentina against Costa Rica if he can shine then so can Uruguay.

Uruguay have never beaten Mexico in a Copa America match but that record should be broken on Wednesday night.

Don’t expect a high scoring game – under 2.5 goals at 4/5 could be a safe bet – but surely there can only be one winner if Uruguay awake from their slumber.

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Uruguay set for flying start

The Copa America in Argentina continues on Monday evening with the four sides from Group C taking centre-stage as the much-fancied Uruguay will face an injury-hit Peru and an intriguing battle is in store when a weakened Mexico side goes head-to-head with Chile.

Hosts Argentina got off to a shaky start on Friday as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Bolivia, while Colombia took top spot in Group A courtesy of a 1-0 win against Costa Rica.

Brazil and fellow Group B sides Venezuela, Paraguay and Ecuador will do battle on Sunday which will pave the way clear for the third group to get into the swing of things in the battle to be South America’s finest.

Uruguay v Peru

These two sides will meet in San Juan with all the talk focused on the problems facing Peru coach Sergio Markarian as he looks to select a side capable of creating problems for a Uruguayan side (9/1 Copa America Winner) still on a high after reaching the semi-finals of last summer’s World Cup.

Markarian must find suitable replacements for key strikers Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro, who are missing due to injury – but the likes of Carlos Zambrano, Luis Ramirez and Jesus Rabanal are far from 100 per cent fit as well.

To make matters worse, top midfielder Juan Vargas faces a late fitness test to see if he can feature in the match.

Despite his problems, Markarian claims the side are in good spirits ahead of the encounter – his first competitive match in charge of Peru (8/1 To Win 90 Minutes) against his home nation.

“The spirit in the changing room is good, the players are good,” he said. “They don’t need anyone to give them a lift. They are very strong and are fired up and ready to play.”

However, it seems that Markarian is merely putting a brave face on things as Uruguay, who have reached the last-four of the Copa America in the past three tournaments, look a superior squad even if Peru had all their big guns fit and available.

The strength of Oscar Tabarez’s Uruguay side (7/5 Group C Winner) is their attacking prowess with striker Diego Forlan, strike partner Luis Suarez and Napoli’s Edison Cavani likely to feature in a 4-3-3 formation with ammunition from out wide set to come from Porto’s Alvaro Pereira.

With those players seemingly fit and ready for action, there can only be one outcome from this clash and that is a Uruguay victory.

Prediction: Uruguay To Win 90 Minutes @ 1/3
Value Bet: Diego Forlan 1st Goal Uruguay To Win 2-0 Scorecast @ 18/1

Chile v Mexico

This fixture also in San Juan throws up a dilemma when considering the outcome simply because Mexico will be fielding a youthful line-up shorn of star players such as Javier Hernandez, Pablo Barrera and Andres Guardado following their recent CONCACAF Gold Cup success in the United States.

However, there will be some experience in the guise of Giovani dos Santos and Rafael Marquez Lugo and 31-year-old goalkeeper Luis Michel, who is confident they can compete with the best at the Copa America (50/1 Winner).

He said: “The group is working well, hard, and with a good mentality. We listen to our manager, so we know exactly how he wants us to play. There is quality (in this team), we have a great opportunity and we should take advantage of it.”

Chile (5/4 Group C Winner) will go into the game with goalkeeper Claudio Bravo, who is keen ‘not to raise false expectations’, insisting that the squad’s ‘ideal target’ is to at least reach the semi-finals and then possibly go on and win the tournament (10/1 Winner).

Chile’s hopes will no doubt rest on the shoulders of Udinese star Alexis Sanchez, whose excellent form in Italy’s Serie A has resulted in a summer bidding war for his signature.

La Roja also have West Brom’s Gonzalo Jara and Jean Beausejour, who will want to put relegation from the Premier League with Birmingham firmly behind him in Argentina.

It is set to be a close encounter in this Group C clash and one which Mexico could be made to pay for substituting experience with youth.

Prediction: Chile To Win 90 Minutes @ 4/9
Value Bet Chile To Win 2-1 Correct Score @ 13/2

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Bafana Bafana looking for Uruguay win

The Bafana Bafana go into Wednesday night’s game against Uruguay knowing that a win could be key to them making a shock appearance in the last 16. (13/8 to qualify)

South Africa, who are trying to avoid the unwanted tag of being the first nation to be knocked out in the group stages as hosts, kicked off their campaign with a thrilling draw with Mexico. The Bafana Bafana made a nervous start to the game and were largely uninspiring during the first half but came to life after a Siphiwe Tshabalala strike and were and unlucky not to take the points after Katlego Mphela  struck the post in the dying moments.

The hosts will now be looking to carry this from into their second match and will be looking to put themselves at the top of Group A against a Uruguay side that looked uninspired in their first group game against France.

“Uruguay will be in trouble if we carry on where we left off against the Mexicans,” said Tshabalala.

“A win against Uruguay will virtually seal our passage into the second round and make the nation even prouder.”

On paper, the Uruguayans possess one of the most potent strike partnerships in the competition with Ajax’s Luis Suarez and Atletico Madrid’s Diego Forlan (Forlan 5/1 favourite for first goalscorer). The two failed to gel during the first match but the forwards failed to gel in the first match the South Africans know that it only takes these strikers a split second to score a goal.

Despite the constant threat, South African centre-half Bongani Khumalo says he is excited by the prospect of facing two of the world’s best strikers.

“Diego is a world-class footballer, but the whole point of playing in this tournament is to test yourself against the best,” Khumalo said. “There is no fear of Forlan nor Uruguay.”

The south Africans will be hoping for the same kind of feverish support that they had for their first game and although many of the sides have been complaining about the noise of the vuvuzelas the South Africans say that the sound of the horn like instruments are inspiring to the African players

“What we have seen from our supporters is amazing and we need to reach the second round for their sake,” South African defender Siboniso Gaxa said. “I believe four points will be enough to claim a place in the knockout stage.”

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