Graham Hunter: The 13/2 shot that should still see Barcelona crowned Copa del Rey champions

Posted on May 29, 2015 by SoccerCapper

The first thing to establish is that this is neither a ‘home’ game for FC Barcelona nor an ‘away’ match for Athletic Bilbao. Ok, sure, the Basques have had to travel and Barça haven’t. But by kick off something remarkable will have happened – The Camp Nou will be far, far more red and white than it is supposed to be.

Each club was given around 39,000 tickets for this blue-riband match in a 98,000 capacity stadium – but you can expect to see red and white ribands, scarves, txapela hats, strips, banners and flags everywhere.

The Barça fans will be present, don’t worry about that. But so absolutely enormous is the hunger from the Athletic support to see their first trophy since 1984 that you can expect black market briefs to have landed in Basque hands. To the extent that, I guarantee, some Barcelona fans will have sold the tickets they won in the club lottery to Athletic fans just in order to fund a trip to Berlin for the Champions League final next Saturday.

Lionel Messi

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If you are old enough to remember how the FA used to allocate the Tartan Amy about fifteen or twenty tickets for Wembley but by the time kick off came there were at least 60,000 of us there …. like that.

NB: If you are shading the odds based on location and the fact that Athletic have only won 18 times in 87 years of visits to the Camp Nou bear this in mind.

The concept of travelling fans in Spanish football is utterly different from the UK and Ireland. If any away team takes 1000 supporters to an away ground that’s regarded as pretty stellar. In La Liga there’s no guaranteed quota for ‘away fans’ to the extent that there is in the Premier or Champions League.

Thus if there are upwards of 50,000 Athletic fans in the Camp Nou, and I think there will be, then that utterly changes the atmosphere from any visit by Los Leones to play Barcelona in any of their home stadia.

There are a few famous occasions of mega favourites [mostly Madrid] losing the cup final in their home stadium. On their centenary in 2002 and in Jose Mourinho’s last ever Madrid game when they lost to Atleti in that dramatic 2013 Copa Final.

This is a fantastic photo of Barcelona fans’ tribute to Xavi at the Nou Camp. pic.twitter.com/QCZLf1UyN9

— Paddy Power (@paddypower) May 27, 2015

The second thing to establish is that if there has ever, in the history of this crazy sport of ours, been a support which is able to exhibit primeval levels of desire, and to transmit that sufficiently for their team to narrow the quality gap on an opponent – it’s the support of the Athletic fans.

That last trophy they won was in May 1984 against Diego Maradona‘s Barça [and it ended in Bruce Lee-Enter the Dragon style scenes between the two sets of players because of bad blood over the Butcher of Bilbao Andoni Goikoetxea-Maradona incident earlier that season] but they’ve lost their three subsequent cup ties against Barça, including the Copa Finals of 2009 and 2012, on an 8-2 aggregate.

However, believe me, it was a life-changing experience to listen to the Athletic fans at the Calderón Stadium three years ago. They’d just lost the Europa final 3-0 to Atlético and this was a gambler’s last-gasp chance at redemption.

Within what felt like the blink of an eye they were not only 3-0 down, again, but being toyed with. It was Bambi versus the Terminator. But, boy, those fans just never let up – a Phil Spectator Wall of Sound from start to finish. Part encouragement to their battered players, part pure defiance. Just monumental.

Luis Suarez

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At the end of the match when Barcelona were celebrating, Xavi and Puyol sought out an Ikurriña [Basque] flag [It’s red with a white cross superimposed on a green X] paired it with the Catalan ‘Senyera’ flag and placed them both, symbolically, in the centre circle together. A real gesture of respect.

These are the two sides which have most won La Copa and it is a regular pairing in the final too. But recent years have seen not only a resurgence of the ‘Clásico’ final but a complete alteration of Real Madrid‘s valuation of winning the domestic knockout tournament.

Thus, make no mistake, there’s a reason why this isn’t being held at the Santiago Bernabéu as Athletic wanted it to be – Florentino Pérez has got the huff.

Remember the days when not everyone could afford a football, and one dumpy kid whose parents splashed out on him every Christmas would sulk: ‘It’s my ball and if you wont’ pass to me I’m leaving, and it’s coming with me’? That’s our Florentino.

Carlo Ancelotti

Carlo Ancelotti sacked, Rafa Benitez as good as confirmed, money to be spent, David De Gea likely to join… the last thing old Don Florentino wanted was for Basques or, worse, Catalans to be celebrating in ‘his’ stadium as they lifted the Copa up to the skies

This is the first trophy Rafa will be expected to lift when the final is played next season, in April most likely. Just watch Los Blancos clamour to hold the final in the Bernabéu or the Camp Nou then if they’ve qualified!

But… to business. If this is to be Athletic’s Copa then by far the most likely route to glory is a set play. Or the second ball off one. Barcelona are markedly better at defending them this season but lately have lost goals to both Bayern and Deportivo in this way.

Athletic have a couple of powerful weapons in this department – both Aritz Aduriz [by far their leading all-comps scorer this season, all time stat = three goals v Barcelona] and their ex-Liverpool stopper, Miki San Jose [six goals this season, none in nine v Barcelona], are aerially adept.

Bet your bottom dollar that Luis Enrique, and his tactical/strategic guru Juan Carlos Unzué will put special emphasis on Barcelona not conceding corners or free kicks in their own half.

Gerard-Pique-Barcelona

But here’s the rub. Plenty of Ernesto Valverde‘s players have figures like: Played Barcelona 15/18/20 times Won: 1. If you want reason to believe that some kind of ‘opposition’ to Barcelona might be worth your while when you punt then it’s got to be based around the coach, Valverde.

For Athletic, in his first spell over a decade ago, for Espanyol and for Valencia he’s turned up a series of draws home and away and he won his first Catalan derby as Espanyol coach 3-1 – albeit as the Frank Rijkaard era became moribund.

Barcelona have been in ‘off’ mode since beating Atlético at the Calderón two weeks ago – valuable rest and recuperation for tired minds and bodies. But will that give them turbo-charged sharpness and power to overhaul Athletic in a blitzkreig first half …. or will it leave them just a little sluggish and vulnerable to being closed down?

Is Luis Suárez‘ hamstring fully healed?

The obvious thing to point to is that Messi loves playing Athletic – 15 goals in 22 matches against them. He doesn’t hate finals either. He’s only lost four of 17 with Barcelona and in the 22 matches those finals have entailed he’s scored 18 times plus given four goal assists.

Graham’s Bets

So, in summary. Barcelona should win, it’s far from ludicrous to suggest that Athletic might make them struggle to do so – in fact backing FCB to have to come from 1-0 down and win 2-1 doesn’t look a hopeless cause to me.

Messi, Aduriz, Piqué, San Jose and possibly [finally!] Iniesta might be worth ‘any-time’ shouts.

Barcelona to come from behind and win – 13/2
Barcelona to win 2-1 – 17/2
Iniesta to score anytime – 12/5

If there was a market where you can back which fans will make more noise, throughout… back the Basques.

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Graham Hunter on La Liga: A tasty 9/1 ACCA with wins for Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla

Posted on May 23, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Málaga – Sevilla, Saturday, 5.30pm

It’s all happening in Andalusia. Three brilliant games at La Rosaleda, Almería and Granada.

There may be 207 km and two and a half hours of travel between these two cities but, believe me … this is a derby match. What’s more, there’s heaps at stake.

A win can give Málaga Europa League football if they secure seventh place but three points for Sevilla would guarantee them a Champions League slot if Valencia draw or lose in Almería.

And were there not a sizzle to Sevilla playing in the Rosaleda then their ex midfield star, Duda, clearly intends to provide it. He’s now the Málaga player with the most Primera Division appearances but he also spent two years with Sevilla.

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

In fact the last time Sevilla had to beat Málaga to reach the Champions League his goal helped them do just that. About this match he says: “This will be intense and competitive because we want European football next season – they want Champions. “But to me it’s ‘just another game’ – important only for what we want out of it. “And my Sevilla were better than this one – we had much more quality!”

Unai Emery wants no distraction, no quitters, nobody saving themselves for the ‘glory’ of Warsaw when they play Dnipro in the Europea League final this Wednesday. “We’ve two clear ways to achieve our goal of Champions League football – the league and winning the Europa League.

“So Saturday, in Málaga, is our first final – not ‘the game before THE final. “We need to oblige Valencia to win and to think about nothing other than that. “I’ve told my players that anyone who’s not totally focussed on beating Málaga should say so and won’t play because this is our most important game of the season”.

Emery has taken his entire squad to Marbella, on the Mediterranean, where they’ll train for this game and the Warsaw final.

Javi Grácia loses Sergi Darder to injury and Miguel Torres to injury, which restores Tissone and Juanpi to the squad which is: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Camacho, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Juanpi, Samu Castillejo.

The lowdown goes like this. Málaga have had an awful end to the season. Since February they’ve lost nine of the last sixteen matches, often beaten by relegation fodder, often not scoring until late in the game, beaten by a ten man Elche. That said, they’ve won two and drawn one of their last three home matches with Sevilla.

681x94_cashout_accas

It’s the eighth best home team v the fifth best away side – one which tends to win or lose on the road (just two draws in 18 visits). Sevilla won the home leg of this, but it was their only win in six matches against Málaga.

The home side should be: Kameni, Rosales, Welligton, Angeleri, Boka: Recio, Camacho: Samuel Garcia, Amrabat, Samu Castillejo: Guerra.

Sevilla might well be: Rico, Diogo, Arribas, Kolo, Navarro: M’Bia Krychowiak: Denis Suárez, Iborra, Reyes: Gameiro

IN-PLAY: To get seventh Málaga must out-point Athletic today or finish tied on points in seventh in which case they win the head-to head. Seventh means European football if Barcelona win the Copa next week

Sevilla to break their bad run v Málaga, win by a goal [1-2] and seek ‘anytime’ help from Gameiro, Mbia, Iborra, Duda or Amrabat.

Almería – Valencia, Saturday, 5.30pm

Since they drew at home to Celta last week Nuno and his players have been sending out SoS signals to their fans. ‘Be there for us!’ has been the message.

This is mega, mega tense. At the beginning of the season Valencia‘s majority shareholder, Peter Lim, told his management team that Champions League football wasn’t the most important thing it was the ONLY thing.

They are fourth, right now, with more points than Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage over Unai Emery‘s team but … BUT – if Valencia do anything other than win and Sevilla beat Málaga then, suddenly, Valencia are stuck with Europa League football, Lim is furious, Nuno’s job is in the balance and Jorge Mendes may think twice about moving his best players to the Mestalla. Hence the SoS.

Hundreds and hundreds of fans have flocked to the Mestalla to buy tickets and there are bus-trip travel deals being sold with the tickets too.

valencia

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André Gomes, one of Valencia’s big success stories this season is not only out, but he’s had surgery which might keep him out beyond the beginning of next season.

Valencia tend to win at Almería but only drew here last season: 2-2. A result which would leave them very vulnerable to Sevilla leap-frogging them. So what do we draw from that given that only 11 of the 22 starting players are still at their clubs a year later?

Almería’s situation is complicated. A win here might give them safety by relegating two from Eibar, Granada or Depor. In your match calculations it’s important to note that nothing other than three points would keep Sergi Barjuan‘s team up. The Dream Team legend, left back for Cruyff, reckons: “it’s only sporadic errors which have been preventing us winning and if we keep playing as we’ve been then football will repay us. “This will be an open game, we’ll give everything and it’s vital, vital that we get the first goal because Valencia concede so few”.

Further complication comes from the fact that the Court for Sports Arbitration will announce during the week whether administrative issues in payment of international transfer fees will rob Almería of three points. If so then, no matter this result, they are down. It’s a €20m spin of the dice in terms of lost revenue.

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Nuno is likely to win this one with Alves; Barragán, Otamendi, Mustafi, Gayá: Feghouli, Enzo Perez, Javi Fuego, Parejo, Rodrigo De Paul: Alcácer

The stand-out threat is Thievy. Bad, bad boy when he’s full of himself off the pitch, but potentially one hell of a player. Really. Skilled, aggressive, quick, football-smart about which position to take up and three goals in his last five. Good partnership with Zongo too. “I’m intelligent, I”m good in the air and I’ve really benefitted from the new coach playing me in the middle not stuck out on the wing” reckons the on-loan Espanyol striker.

Anytime? Look for Thievy, Zongo, Hemed and for Valencia Parejo, Gayá or Alcácer.

IN PLAY: Valencia are third if they win and Atleti lose, fifth if they don’t win here and Sevilla do win. If Almería don’t win they’re down. If they finish tied on 35 with two or three other teams they stay up on head-to-head – only if they are in a direct head-to-head points-tie with Eibar for third bottom do they go down after having won this game.

Valencia to win this one – 8/13

Granada – Atlético, Saturday, 5.30pm

It ain’t a calamity but, as they say in Spain, Atlético ‘lo tiene crudo’.

In other words the harsh reality is that the newly deposed champions, who played the final of last season’s Champions League and contested the quarter final this year [earning in the region of €90m by doing so] will have to pre-qualify for next year’s tournament if they lose here and Valencia win at Almería – how about that?

Cholo Simeone takes with him to the beautiful Andaluz city: Oblak, Miguel Ángel Moyá;Jesús Gámez, Juanfran,Miranda, Godín, José María Giménez, Siqueira; Raúl García, Tiago, Saúl, Gabi, Mario Suárez, Koke; Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez.

Which tells you that Fernando Torres, Arda, Mandzukic are all absent for one reason or another.

The reason they’ll face ferocious rivals, despite Granada’s horrible season [Sandoval is their fourth coach] is that a win gives the home side guaranteed survival and that would become their fourth win on the trot. Not bad killer form when the chips are down.

Fernando Torres 800

If it’s a guide, Granada haven’t won this fixture since 1973 when Pepe Reina‘s dad was in goal for Atleti and the last five Granada v Atleti Liga meetings have had three single goal wins for the visitors and two 0-0 draws.

El Arabi has scored four since Sandoval took over, Rochina and Robert Ibañez were super last week in the 0-3 win at Real Sociedad.

Expect Griezmann and Raúl Garcia to start up front, expect Granada to give Atleti a test and the crowd to be a baying mass – this is an atmospheric, aggressive stadium

Expect Cholo to go through his squad like a dose of salts if they aren’t motivated and don’t ‘show’ here – there would be casualties in the summer market in that case.

IN-PLAY – Atleti stay third with a win or a draw. Defeat means a real possibility of fourth. Granada stay up with a win but should they end up tied on 35 points with three others, or on a straight head-to-head with Depor they go down.

Score draw – Griezmann, El-Arabi, Robert, Saúl, Godín all worth a wee punt

Barcelona – Deportivo, Saturday 5.30pm

To quote the Beastie Boys ‘You’ve got to fight! ‘For the right! ‘To Paaaarty!!’ That’s what Barcelona, and Xavi in particular, have done so that’s what’s going to happen.

The Liga trophy will be presented post match, it’s Xavi’s last League game at the Camp Nou, he’ll start, it’s Barcelona’s last game before the Copa del Rey final – so after the final whistle there’s a party.

Obviously an atmosphere like that, and the fact that Luis Enrique will dramatically shuffle the pack and give ‘backup’ players their chance to show [Vermaelen will get game time whether from the kick off or off the bench] can detract from a team’s razor sharpness and winning attitude.

Luis Suarez

But it shouldn’t here. Luis Enrique will watch players’ attitudes hawkishly and there’s a race to be part of not only the starting XI for the two big finals to come but also to even get on the bench – that’s how competitive things are at the Camp Nou right now.

Squad: Bravo Masip Montoya Xavi Pedro Iniesta Messi Neymar Jr Rafinha Mascherano Bartra Douglas Jordi Alba S. Roberto Adriano Vermaelen Mathieu Munir

The last time Depor visited here when Barça had wrapped the league up they drew 0-0 in a dull game – but that result wouldn’t automatically keep them up this time.

If they win they survive. The way to understand the head-to-head rule in this case, particularly if you are following and betting ‘in-play’ is that should Depor end equal on points with Eibar they’ll win the head-to-head – but finish equal third bottom with either Almería or Granada and they’ll lose it, thus go down.

Neymar

Six draws and a win in their last ten, Depor are fighting. Historically they’ve only won three times at the Camp Nou, the last being twelve years ago when Luis Enrique was playing and Espanyol manager Sergio Gonzalez scored! Depor something like: Fabricio, Laure, Sidnei, Lopo, Canella: Domínguez, Begantiños, Borges, Cavaleiro, Lucas, Salomão

Barcelona: Masip, Montoya, Bartra, Mathieu, Adriano: Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha: Pedro, Messi, Neymar/Munir

Could Depor win? Stranger things have happened given the Barça XI but no way with Luis Enrique’s players treat this like a kick-around and they’ll want to send Xavi on his way. Goals? Xavi, Messi, Pedro, Lucas, Sidnei for your ‘anytimes’.

Both teams to score, Barcelona win.

Sevilla, Valencia and Barcelona to win, with a draw between Atletico and Granada – 9/1

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Graham Hunter: La Liga is on the brink but I’m ready to strike with a 28/1 acca this weekend

Posted on May 9, 2015 by SoccerCapper

I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.

There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm

David Moyes

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Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.

Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.

Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.

From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.

And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.

Barcelona-800

Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.

A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.

Squad Rotation

There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.

Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.

Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available

Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -2 is 4/9.

Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm

Gareth Bale

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Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!

Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.

Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.

More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.

To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.

Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.

Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?

It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.

Madrid to win by exactly one goal is 11/4

Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am

Gabi

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This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.

The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.

Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.

Raul Garcia

‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.

From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.

One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – i.e. so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.

You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.

Atletico to win is 1/2

Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

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A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.

Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.

The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.

Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.

Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.

Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.

Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.

Draw at 13/5

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