Graham Hunter: Here’s how Diego Simeone has transformed Atletico Madrid from whipping boys to sadists

There was a time when this would have been a Fifty Shades Of Grey fixture.

Barça v Atlético, home or away, began to get a bit sado-masochistic.

The Catalans, generally, imposing the pain, the Madrileños accepting the humilation. Both kept turning up for more.

While Barça didn’t ALWAYS win, Atlético’s ten matches with the Blaugrana prior to Diego Simeone taking over saw them concede 36 times.

An appalling figure, more pertinent to primary school football.

Then, get this, when the now guru-figure of Simeone did take over the first three results were all defeats and cost another eight goals.

Thirteen games, three wins, 44 conceded.

Since Barcelona last won this fixture there have been five meetings between the sides and Los Colchoneros have conceded just twice in that time.

From allowing nearly 3.4 goals per game to 0.4 a match. That ain’t bad.

Filter out the games at the Calderón and it was much, much more embarrassing. Prior to this season, Atlético lost 26 goals in six visits to the Camp Nou, the very stadium in which the league leaders require either a draw or a win to give them their first Spanish championship for 18 years.

They were shipping in four a game. Crazy

Eto for Barca v Atletico

The thing which helps establish beyond any doubt who is the most important man at Atletico, is the lineup from Los Colchoneros’ last defeat at the Camp Nou. In December 2012 Atleti took the lead against Barcelona. The XI which needed to defend that 0-1 lead for 59 minutes was: Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Filipe Lluis: Turan, Mario Súarez, Gabi, Koke: Falcao, Diego Costa.

It’s perfectly feasible that ten of those men take the pitch in Simeone’s starting XI on Saturday evening … and, dammit, you’d say that the presence of goal-matchine Falcao probably makes that a stronger side than the coach has at this disposal this weekend.

Fifty nine minutes later, however, they’d been trounced 4-1.

The previous Barça v Atleti result was 5-0. On that night the visitors fielded Courtois, Godín, Miranda, Mario Súarez, Tiago, Gabi and Diego – on the bench were Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Adrián and Arda.

Again, eleven players who might all be under the microscope as Spain’s Liga has it’s most high profile, most tense finale in history.

Simeone has taken all the same guys, added very little in terms of new talent, and completely transformed them from masochists to sadists.

Obviously, all this partly indicates how much Barcelona’s intensity, cutting edge, speed of play and individual brilliance has declined over the last ten months.

Leo Messi used to find scoring goals against Atlético, even when they had a knockout keeper like Courtois, easier than shooting goldfish in a barrel.

He’s now six meetings, and counting, without a goal or an assist against Los Rojiblancos.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

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Above all, those previous stats tell most about Simeone.

Yes, he’s working the team harder week in week out in training. Those who aren’t inspired by him are intimidated by him.

He demands that everyone train with at least as much, if not more, passion and appetite than they actually play with.

In that sense, if not in the philosophy of how games should be play, he’s Pep Guardiola’s brother from another mother.

But to take a group of men who were habitually used to being thrashed within an inch of their life (none of whom were ex public schoolboys) and to turn them into a stubborn, feisty, streetwise Dirty Dozen, as used to thwarting Barcelona as they were once beaten before the first whistle, is one hell of an achievement.

He’s succeeded in that most difficult of tasks – changing the psychology of an entire group. Unifying levels of hunger and confidence. Improving them

The ‘Cup Final’ mentality…

Twice in the last two seasons Simeone, evidently a terrific svengali figure for whom players will give ‘extra’ when they think they are empty and ready to punch the clock, has brought a winning ‘cup final’ end of term performance out of his troops.

Let’s call the Uefa Europa league final of 2012 and the Copa del Rey final of 2013 the direct equivalent of this ‘Cup Final’ which awaits Atleti on Saturday in Barcelona.

In 2012 Atleti weren’t quite supposed to be meat and drink for Athletic Club but the Basques’ performances that season, particularly in hammering Manchester United, indicated that they should have been properly threatening in the all-Spanish final.

Instead, Simeone’s Atleti were better from start to finish and in every possible department. They were fitter, they enjoyed the occasion more, they worked harder, they were cleverer and more effective – they completely bossed it.

A year later, again in a last-game-of-the-season-showdown, Atleti showed an utterly different characteristic. They fought and clawed to stay level with Real Madrid in the Copa Final and were grateful to Courtois for quite heroically keeping them in the contest.

They spent most of the night on the ropes but, via Miranda, they were still gutsy enough to produce the KO punch the instant that the opportunity presented itself.

Diego Simeone wiki edit

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Simeone has taught them many things, he’s added some tactical finesse – but his greatest achievement has been psychological.

From a squad happy enough to coast along in third or fourth position and happy enough not to wave a guillotine blade at Spain’s ancien regime of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the Argentine has turned them into a bunch of bloodthirsty Robespierres.

Nerves at the finish line?

So, from my perspective, the big question to be asked before Saturday evening’s kick off is how much psychological damage has been done by Atleti losing five of the last six points at what should have been a ‘Vive La Revolution!’ moment of the season?

The loss at Levante was understandable enough. Having won at Chelsea and suffered the emotional tsunami of that experience the City of Valencia stadium was a horrible place to have to go and carve out a result.

But there was a general expectation that the champions-elect would swamp Málaga and there was a backwash of disappointment and deflation to discover, post that 1-1 draw last weekend that a single goal would have won them the title given Barcelona’s stalemate at Elche.

I watched the sagging shoulders, the dull, ‘dammit!!’ faces, and the suddenly weary bodies at the end of that Málaga draw, players, Simeone, technical staff and fans – and I thought that there’d been a major over-reaction

For a club so in charge of its emotions and psychology all season I thought that there was a glimpse of self doubt and a lack of ‘know-now’ in terms of that last push to get over the line.

From a bunch of guys who reckoned that a) the title would be won before going to the Camp Nou or b) that if they had to go and win they would and could, it felt as if Atleti had allowed self-doubt to corrode their previously robust confidence.

This should be treatable. A good, thorough working week on the Majadahonda training ground, individual tuition, perhaps a wee night out – there has been sufficient time since the Málaga draw to iron out and psychological kinks. You’d think, at least.

A further question is whether, improbable though it seems, Simeone has having a few flutters. Warrior, yes. Successful, yes. Invincible – no.

It’s vital that, should Atleti go one nil down (Barcelona haven’t taken the lead against these rivals for seven matches, since February 2012) they don’t suddenly get those ‘novice’ nerves which so often prevent ‘underdogs’ from fulfilling their vaunted potential.

Advantage Atletico?

Other than the body language last week, the omens are red and white. Not only do two of the three possible results win Atleti the title they’ve had significantly the better of things this season.

Atleti have the only win of the five games between the sides this term, Atleti have produced three different scorers and two different assist-givers against Barcelona since August.

Barcelona’s only scorer v Simeone’s mob this season, Neymar, won’t start and, realistically, shouldn’t even play at this stage of his injury rehab.

Atleti, at a time when Barcelona continue to look awfully ragged at the back without Piqué, Puyol or Valdés, keep on producing some lovely set plays – and scoring from them. Simeone’s guys at the masters of transferring hard work and planning from the training ground to the battlefield.

Then there’s the final point in terms of psychology. You’d have to forgive the boys in red and white IF they, consciously or otherwise, felt that their final against Real Madrid a week on Saturday is more important.

You’d forgive them if they decided to play speculatively (for a draw) at the Camp Nou and then, having reserved something, go ‘all-out’ in Lisbon against Real Madrid.

You wold forgive them, but would Barça? Tata Martino’s side has been patchy and unreliable due to oscillating form this season – but they’ve shown, to the cost of Madrid, Man City, Ajax, Milan and Villarreal, that when they really want to .. they can.

Mateu Lahoz, easily Spain’s best and most diligent ref, will be in charge. He MAY have a style which allows a Simeone-esque side more liberty with physical play but that’s because he likes the game to flow, not because he promotes brutality.

Barcelona used to be the perfect side to profit from Lahoz – quicker and brighter in how they reacted when an incident looked like a foul but the ref waved play-on.

He gives a premium to those who are quick, talented, who concentrate and love the ‘advantage’ rule.

Even though they’ve been too sluggish in every respect, recently, to draw benefit from his style, Barcelona have nonetheless never lost with Lahoz in charge

One more thought about Barça. They have the psychological impact of all these ‘farewells’ at the Camp Nou. From Tito’s unfair, untimely death through to Victor Valdés slinking away after a private goodbye to this team mates and Carles Puyol retreating with all guns blazing.

Full military honours there.

Valdes and Puyol with European Cup

Do intangibles exist? Can Barcelona, slightly patched together where players’ form, fitness and energy levels are concerned, draw some sort of invincible emotional energy from the facts that Puyol and Valdés are going and Tito has gone forever?

More questions than answers. But a clear cut promise. IF Simeone has done his restorative psychology well, (as well as he’s managed with his squad all season) then Atleti will get their draw and their title.

If he hasn’t, then I suspect that this might prove to be a more vulnerable Atlético than Barcelona have faced in the previous handful of matches this season.

Game on.

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Big boys join Europa race

The Europa League third qualifying round gets underway on Thursday and several of Europe’s sleeping giants will be searching for a stress-free passage to the play-off round, where a place in the group stages will be at stake.

Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool face Belarussian outfit FK Gomel, who set up the plum tie with the 2004/05 Champions League winners with a narrow win over FK Renova of Macedonia.

Attacking threats for Gomel include former BATE Borisov hitman Aleksandr Alumona and new signing Andrey Sherakow, who arrived from Minsk, though there is a very definite lack of big-match experience in the squad.

Unsurprisingly, Gomel are priced as 7/1 outsiders to take anything from their home leg against the Reds, with Rodgers’ men a near-certainty at 1/3 to take an advantage with them back to Anfield.

Elsewhere, another former Champions League winner, Inter Milan, will aim to move a step closer to qualification for the Europa League when they take on Hajduk Split.

The Croatian outfit’s finest moment in Europe came in the 1994/95 season, when they reached the quarter final of the Champions League, though recent years have been tinged with frustration, having finished as runner-up in the Prva Liga for the last four years.

They take on a team who topped their Champions League group last season only to be eliminated in the second round, and fail to produce the goods in Serie A, finishing a distant sixth and well out of the title race.

But Inter Milan’s hopes of staging a comeback in the upcoming season are high, and, at 4/11 to fit into place the first piece of the jigsaw and win this first leg clash, they are expected to have too much of Hajduk Split.

Meanwhile, La Liga side Athletic Bilbao should be far too strong for NK Slaven Belupo when the two sides meet for the first of two legs tomorrow evening. The Croats have a habit of starting games strongly in Europe, but will struggle in the Spanish heat.

Bilbao’s 1/10 price tells you all you need to know about this game, but a 10/1 price on a 5-0 win for the Spaniards represents extremely good value, as does a 6-0 scoreline, which is available at 16/1.

Further British interest at this stage of the competition is represented by Dundee United, who welcome Dynamo Moscow to Tannadice Park tomorrow evening, and who will rightly fancy their chances of defying their 10/3 price and taking a lead with them into the away leg.

Dynamo are available at 7/10 to escape with the win, but Peter Houston’s men will be feeling far from charitable, and a siege mentality from the hosts could force the Russians to settle for a draw, which is available at a rather generous 23/10.

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Hammers to win new boys battle

The new Premier League campaign is just over five weeks away and, while the main focus of attention will no doubt be on who are the title contenders, the three newly-promoted sides have their own mission to survive for more than one season in top-flight.

Last season marked a rare occurrence as it was only the second time in Premier League history that all three new boys survived as Norwich and Swansea flourished to seal mid-table finishes, while QPR survived relegation on a dramatic final day.

This season promises to be another challenge for the clubs coming up from the Championship as we look at who has the potential to finish top dog.

Reading came from nowhere to romp to the Championship title against the odds last season as boss Brian McDermott helped the Royals recover from their 2011 play-off final hangover in the opening half of the campaign to surge into top spot following an impressive post New Year winning run.

McDermott has wasted no time in bolstering his squad with Pavel Pogrebnyak, who scored six goals in 12 games on loan at Fulham last season, former England full-back Nicky Shorey and midfielder Danny Guthrie all adding Premier League experience to the ranks.

It will be a tall order for the Royals to survive (4/6 To Stay Up), but we feel the quality of players McDermott is adding to an already settled squad should keep their heads above water next term.

Southampton went up in the second automatic position after Nigel Adkins’ men suffered a slight case of the jitters when battling it out with the Royals for the title at the end of last season.

Adkins’ side were impressive at St Mary’s last season and they will be hoping to make it a fortress again as they bid to get a foot-hold in the Premier League.

The Saints chief will be banking on last season’s top scorer Rickie Lambert to take his prolific goal-scoring form into the top flight and hope £7million signing Jay Rodriguez can also make the step up.

Steve Davies will add some Premier League experience into the midfield after joining from Rangers, while Adkins is still looking for more new faces to further bolster a squad which could do with some more top-flight nous.

West Ham managed to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking, but had to do it the hard way in the end-of-season play-offs when they overcame Blackpool at Wembley.

Sam Allardyce’s men choked the most, particularly at Upton Park, in the second half of last season and that cost them automatic promotion. However, they rediscovered their form in the run-in and play-offs to seal a deserved return to the top-flight.

Allardyce’s squad possessed plenty of Premier League quality last season as the Hammers held on to the majority of their top players in order to give themselves the best chance of promotion and it paid dividends.

Experienced goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen will more then compensate for Rob Green’s departure to QPR on a free transfer, while midfielder Mohamed Diame has also arrived from Wigan and George McCartney’s loan move from Sunderland has been made a permanent arrangement.

The Hammers have Matt Taylor, Kevin Nolan, Carlton Cole and Mark Noble, who have all performed well in the Premier League in the past, while Allardyce will hope Ricardo Vaz Te, Nicky Maynard and Sam Baldock can make the step up with ease.

Despite finishing third, we feel Hammers (4/11 To Stay Up) look the best bet to cope with the transition of being back in the Premier League given that their absence was only a season, while the Saints and Royals have been missing for seven and four years respectively.

Big Sam has proven himself capable of keeping clubs in the top flight with Bolton and Blackburn so expect the Hammers to come out on top in the battle of the news boys, while only Southampton (5/4 to be relegated) are likely to be fall guys and drop back to the Championship come next May.

Prediction: West Ham Top Promoted Team @ 11/8

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Hammers to win battle of new boys

The new Premier League campaign is just over five weeks away and, while the main focus of attention will no doubt be on who are the title contenders, the three newly-promoted sides have their own mission to survive for more than one season in top-flight.

Last season marked a rare occurrence as it was only the second time in Premier League history that all three new boys survived as Norwich and Swansea flourished to seal mid-table finishes, while QPR survived relegation on a dramatic final day.

This season promises to be another challenge for the clubs coming up from the Championship as we look at who has the potential to finish top dog.

Reading came from nowhere to romp to the Championship title against the odds last season as boss Brian McDermott helped the Royals recover from their 2011 play-off final hangover in the opening half of the campaign to surge into top spot following an impressive post New Year winning run.

McDermott has wasted no time in bolstering his squad with Pavel Pogrebnyak, who scored six goals in 12 games on loan at Fulham last season, former England full-back Nicky Shorey and midfielder Danny Guthrie all adding Premier League experience to the ranks.

It will be a tall order for the Royals to survive (4/6 To Stay Up), but we feel the quality of players McDermott is adding to an already settled squad should keep their heads above water next term.

Southampton went up in the second automatic position after Nigel Adkins’ men suffered a slight case of the jitters when battling it out with the Royals for the title at the end of last season.

Adkins’ side were impressive at St Mary’s last season and they will be hoping to make it a fortress again as they bid to get a foot-hold in the Premier League.

The Saints chief will be banking on last season’s top scorer Rickie Lambert to take his prolific goal-scoring form into the top flight and hope £7million signing Jay Rodriguez can also make the step up.

Steve Davies will add some Premier League experience into the midfield after joining from Rangers, while Adkins is still looking for more new faces to further bolster a squad which could do with some more top-flight nous.

West Ham managed to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking, but had to do it the hard way in the end-of-season play-offs when they overcame Blackpool at Wembley.

Sam Allardyce’s men choked the most, particularly at Upton Park, in the second half of last season and that cost them automatic promotion. However, they rediscovered their form in the run-in and play-offs to seal a deserved return to the top-flight.

Allardyce’s squad possessed plenty of Premier League quality last season as the Hammers held on to the majority of their top players in order to give themselves the best chance of promotion and it paid dividends.

Experienced goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen will more then compensate for Rob Green’s departure to QPR on a free transfer, while midfielder Mohamed Diame has also arrived from Wigan and George McCartney’s loan move from Sunderland has been made a permanent arrangement.

The Hammers have Matt Taylor, Kevin Nolan, Carlton Cole and Mark Noble, who have all performed well in the Premier League in the past, while Allardyce will hope Ricardo Vaz Te, Nicky Maynard and Sam Baldock can make the step up with ease.

Despite finishing third, we feel Hammers (4/11 To Stay Up) look the best bet to cope with the transition of being back in the Premier League given that their absence was only a season, while the Saints and Royals have been missing for seven and four years respectively.

Big Sam has proven himself capable of keeping clubs in the top flight with Bolton and Blackburn so expect the Hammers to come out on top in the battle of the news boys, while only Southampton (5/4 to be relegated) are likely to be fall guys and drop back to the Championship come next May.

Prediction: West Ham Top Promoted Team @ 11/8

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Big boys to sneak it on Monday

After another superb weekend of Serie A action, Mondays sees two mouth watering games with Champions League chasing Napoli (40/1 Champions league outright) hosting Chievo while Luis Enrique’s Roma travel to Siena.

Despite impressing in the Champions League, where they have progressed to the knockout stages, Napoli have struggled for consistency in the league and currently sit seventh, ten points off the European spots (Napoli 8/15, draw 11/4, Chievo 11/2).

They will see the Chievo match as the perfect chance and will look to in-demand striker Edison Cavani to fire them to glory. The Uruguayan is thought to be on the shopping lists of a number of Europe’s top clubs and he’ll certainly be looking to get on the scoresheet.

Chievo continue to defy the odds and despite their limited resources look as if they’ll once again avoid relegation quite comfortably.

To win in Naples you have to be prepared to compete and in Michael Bradley the Veronans have one of the best combative midfielders in the business. Bradley is at the heart of everything his side does and will be looking forward to the challenge of facing the likes of Marek Hamsik and Gokhan Inler.

However, home advantage should play its part and with the likes of Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi in attack, it’s hard to look past them for a comfortable win.

The other match is at the Stadio Artemio Franchi and also looks as if it could be a thriller with both Siena and Roma known for their open and exciting styles of play (Siena 21/10, draw 11/5, Roma 13/10).

Siena are currently teetering on the edge of the relegation zone but, having drawn with Juventus in their last league game and then followed it up with a cup win against Napoli, Giuseppe Sannino’s side are sure to be full of confidence.

Their player to watch is likely to be striker Emanuele Calaio (7/4 to score at anytime) who has scored four in his last five games and is in the form of his life. He will be looking to once again find the net and fire his side away from the drop zone.

Roma have proved to be somewhat of an enigma this season and, despite bringing in a number of new players, the Giallorossi have struggled for form. However, they’re still in contention for the Champions league places and will expect to win.

Key to their chances is sure to be captain Francesco Totti (11/8 to score at anytime) who has been in superb form in the last few months and will be looking for another big game. The veteran playmakers’ form has resulted in calls for him to end his international retirement and play for Italy in Euro 2012 and he’ll certainly look to dictate affairs on Monday.

His class could make the difference and although it will undoubtedly be a tight match, Roma should sneak it.

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Tractor Boys to stall Saints’ march

nigel adkinsThe Championship is back in full swing now with the third round of fixtures set to take place this midweek. Here, we pick out the big games from Tuesday’s action, including Southampton’s attempt to maintain their 100% start.

Ipswich v Southampton (7.45)

Nigel Adkins’ Saints have taken their return to the Championship like ducks to water after a 3-1 opening-day demolition job on Leeds which was followed up with a battling 1-0 win at Barnsley on Saturday in which they played for the last six minutes with ten men after Richard Chaplow’s red card.

Ipswich were good on the opening day with new striker signing Michael Chopra (13/8 Anytime Goalscorer) helping to shoot down Bristol City at Ashton Gate.

But Paul Jewell’s men could not follow that up on home soil as Matty Fryatt’s solo strike handed Hull a 1-0 win at Portman Road at the weekend.

It all points towards a club record ninth straight win for the Saints (15/8 Away 90 Minutes) following on from last season’s promotion success, but Ipswich are unlikely to roll over given that they disappointed their own fans at the weekend.

Therefore, back the Tractor Boys to halt the Saints’ run in its tracks on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Ipswich Home 90 Minutes @ 6/4
Value Bet: Chopra M 1st Goal 2-1 Ipswich Scorecast @ 33/1.

Leeds v Hull (7.45)

There have only been two games played so far this season, but it seems there is an element of pressure starting to mount on Leeds boss Simon Grayson’s shoulders following successive league defeats at Southampton and against Middlesbrough at Elland Road on Saturday.

Grayson will point to the ridiculous refereeing decisions which resulted in his side finishing the Boro game with nine men, while the opposition were also reduced to ten, as the key behind the 1-0 defeat.

But that will count for nothing when the Tigers come calling on Tuesday as he will now also be without banned striker Max Gradel and skipper Jonny Howson for the Yorkshire derby.

The arrival of Andy Keogh from Wolves will boost Grayson’s striker options for the game which his side can’t really afford to lose (11/8 Home 90 Minutes).

Nigel Pearson’s men will be on a high, having bounced back from the opening-game defeat to Blackpool and a Carling Cup humiliation at the hands of Macclesfield with an impressive 1-0 win at Ipswich on Saturday and they will no doubt scent a second successive away win (2/1 Away 90 Minutes).

However, Leeds’ defeat to Boro on Saturday was their first reverse on home soil since last October and they will not want to follow that up with a second just three days’ later.

This clash ended 2-2 last season and don?t be surprised if there is a similar outcome this week.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 6/4
Value Bet: Draw 2-2 Correct Score @ 14/1.

Barnsley v Middlesbrough (7.45)

An interesting encounter at Oakwell sees Keith Hill’s Tykes up against Tony Mowbray’s Boro side who are bubbling along nicely so far this season after finishing last term on with four successive wins.

Barnsley started the season well with a creditable goalless draw at Nottingham Forest, before being knocked out of the Carling Cup by Morecambe in a 2-0 defeat at Oakwell last week.

Southampton then took maximum points from the South Yorkshire outfit on their own patch at the weekend. Therefore Barnsley are still searching for their first goal of the season as well as a first three-point haul.

Goals have not been a problem for Boro and, in particular, Dutch striker Marvin Emnes (6/1 First Goalscorer), who scored in the opening day 2-2 draw with Portsmouth at the Riverside, before bagging a hat-trick in the cup at Walsall and then scoring the winner at Leeds on Saturday with a tremendous strike.

It all points to an away win as Boro (6/4 – 90 Minutes) have suffered just one defeat in their last 15 games and have won four away games on the bounce in all competitions.

But Barnsley will be desperate to get off the mark in front of their own fans and have defeated Boro in the past two seasons on home soil (Barnsley 7/4 Home 90 Minutes) so that is worth considering when making a decision on this match.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 23/10
Value Bet: Emnes M 1st goal 1-1 Draw Scorecast @ 30/1.

Watford v West Ham (7.45)

The pre-season joint promotion favourites West Ham finally got up and running with a 1-0 win at Doncaster on Saturday thanks to summer signing Kevin Nolan’s early strike (13/2 First Goalscorer) at the Keepmoat Stadium.

It helped to erase the memory of a disappointing opening game defeat against Cardiff at Upton Park the previous Sunday for Sam Allardyce and he will be hoping the Hammers can now progress and go on a good run of results – starting at Vicarage Road on Tuesday.

Sean Dyche started his tenure as Hornets boss with a 2-2 draw at Burnley after his side had led 2-0 at Turf Moor, only to then come down to earth with a bump as Derby secured a 1-0 win at Vicarage Road on Saturday.

The Hammers squad is undoubtedly a lot stronger than Watford’s on paper and if they can continue to gel following their morale-boosting win in South Yorkshire, they will have too much for the hosts.

Prediction: West Ham Away 90 Minutes @ 6/5
Value Bet: West Ham To Win 2-1 Correct Score @ 8/1.

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Swans to top new boys

The Premier League title race attracts the most attention going into every new campaign, but there is always plenty of interest in the three new boys and, as the new season is under a fortnight away, we will take a look at the chances of QPR, Norwich and Swansea and who will finish top of the new boys’ class.

QPR

Neil Warnock’s side comfortably won the Championship title with 88 points, having spent most of last season in the top position.

However, their promotion was shrouded in controversy when they had to wait for confirmation of their Premier League place following fears of points being deducted over rule breaches regarding the signing of Alejandro Faurlin.

Warnock spent the first half of the summer wondering if he would be replaced despite his excellent work at Loftus Road, while, at the time of writing, the R’s will go into their first Premier League season in 15 years with Cardiff striker Jay Bothroyd on board, while Danny Gabbidon and Kieron Dyer have joined on free transfers.

That will disappoint many fans given that the club were being linked with the likes of Peter Crouch and Niko Kranjcar earlier in the summer, while the prospect of talisman Adel Taarabt (80/1 Top Goalscorer) departing before a ball is kicked will not help matters.

Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City are all on the R’s fixture list in the first eight games and that could see them fighting against the drop almost immediately (13/2 To Finish Bottom).

NORWICH

Paul Lambert has performed wonders at Carrow Road since taking over in 2009. The League One title was then followed last season by automatic promotion to the Premier League as they became the first team since Manchester City 11 years earlier to achieve that feat.

The key to the Canaries’ success was their excellent strike rate with 83 goals scored, while Lambert has moved to strengthen that department in the close-season with the arrival of James Vaughan and Steve Morison from Everton and Millwall respectively.

Midfielders Elliott Bennett, Bradley Johnson and Anthony Pilkington and defensive duo Ritchie De Laet and Kyle Naughton have also been brought in by a busy Lambert.

The squad is in place but the new signings all have a similar trait in that they all lack Premier League experience and that could work against them when the going gets tough – as it inevitably will – during the course of the season.

Many feel Norwich have bought wisely as they appear to expect relegation and, in that respect, their wage bill and finances will not take a battering by the loss of TV money which would accompany the drop back down to the Championship next May.

I see the Canaries as a side that will perform similar to Blackpool by exciting Premier League fans with their attacking play and goal-filled games, but they are set to fall short over 38 matches (8/13 Relegation).

SWANSEA

The Championship play-off winners were billed as the best footballing team in the Championship last season as Brendan Rodgers guided the South Wales side to the English top-flight for the first time in just under 30 years in his first season at the Liberty Stadium.

The Swans were worthy of their 4-2 play-off final success against Reading as they finished third in the table after 46 games.

However, the loss of keeper Dorus De Vries and Darren Pratley did not help Rodgers’ plans, but he remedied things by bringing in Benfica’s reserve goalkeeper Jose Moreira, Tottenham defender Steven Caulker has arrived on loan and Newcastle’s Wayne Routledge is due to join in a £2milion deal.

The strike-force has been beefed up with last season’s top Championship hitman Danny Graham joining from Watford and Middlesbrough forward Leroy Lita set to follow.

Both players have some Premier League experience – albeit limited – with Middlesbrough and Reading respectively, but they are capable of chipping in with some vital goals.

The Swans may be favourites for the drop (8/15 Relegation) but their passing style and strong home form is likely to see them do well at the Liberty Stadium and they could well be the surprise package in the new season, much like Hull City back in the 2008-09 campaign (11/8 To Stay Up).

Prediction Swansea Top Promoted Team @ 11/4

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Early start for Carling new boys

The new Football League campaign has not yet started but League Two new boys Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon have been called back early on Friday evening to scrap it out for a place in the first round of the Carling Cup.

The preliminary round has been hastily arranged in order to allow Carling Cup holders and newly-relegated Championship side Birmingham to start in the third round because of their Europa League commitments.

The Conference Premier champions Crawley have been handed home advantage at Broadfield Road and they will fancy their chances of progression into a tasty clash with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on August 8 in the first round proper should they go through.

However, AFC Wimbledon – a club spawned from the 1988 FA Cup winners after they upped sticks and moved to Milton Keynes – will want to mark their first ever match as a Football League club with a win (7/2 Away Win 90 Minutes) some 34 years after the original side entered the league.

Wimbledon entered the league via a play-off win against Luton Town, while Crawley were a Football League side in waiting last term as they romped to the title.

Boss Steve Evans is boosted by the fact that, with the exception of skipper Pablo Mills, who recently underwent an operation on his ankle, and Jamie Day, who is still recovering from injury, Crawley have a full strength squad to pick from for the tie.

Six players could make their debuts and Evans is looking for his men to send out a strong message to their League Two rivals through this match.

Crawley go into the match on the back of a good run from the end of last season with four wins and two draws in their last six while they defeated AFC Wimbledon 3-1 (12/1 Correct Score) in the Conference game at the same venue last term.

AFC Wimbledon have problems in the treatment room as new captain Jamie Stuart and midfielder Lee Minshull are struggling with respective back and dead leg problems, while defender Mat Mitchel-King is out with glandular fever and fellow new signings Gareth Gwillim and Charles Ademeno are doubts with respective shoulder and heel injuries.

They also go into the clash against their rivals in good form with a record of four wins and two draws from their last six games.

However, with a slightly stronger side and home advantage afforded to Crawley Town it is difficult to see any other outcome than a victory for the Reds.

Prediction: Crawley To Win 90 Minutes @ 8/13
Value bet: Crawley To Win 2-1 Correct Score @ 7/1

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Mancini ignoring boo boys

Delusional Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini believes he is under no pressure at Eastlands despite his side producing another toothless display against Birmingham as they failed to close the gap on league leaders Chelsea (2/5 Premier League outright).

Saturday’s goalless draw with the Blues was the third home game on the bounce that City have failed to score in, and the home faithful let their dissatisfaction be known as a chorus of boos rang out at full time.

City fans and football supporters in general have been stunned by the negativity of Mancini’s tactics this season, with Saturday’s result following on from the deadly dull Manchester derby on Wednesday night.

While City had a good go at Birmingham many inside Eastlands were left stupefied when, with minutes to go, Mancini took off the team’s top scorer Carlos Tevez and replaced him with a defensive midfielder in Gareth Barry.

After the game Mancini was forced to defend his tactics before being asked whether he thought his job might be on the line should results not start to improve quickly.

“I am frustrated because I wanted to win this game. I don’t want to draw or lose a game,” Mancini snapped.

“What pressure? For what? You continue to say that I am under pressure. I am not under pressure.”

Saturday’s result leaves City six points off Chelsea and that gap could increase to nine points should the Blues beat Sunderland.

City’s price has now drifted to 16/1 to win the league and while you would be wise to avoid that market it would still be a brave man who goes against them achieving their aim for the season – which is a top four finish and a spot in the Champions League (City 2/5 top four finish).

Another man who has come under increasing pressure after Saturday is Liverpool’s Roy Hodgson. He watched his side put in a pitiful display against Stoke as they lost 2-0 at the Britannia Stadium.

After such a good display against Chelsea last Sunday hopes were high that the Reds had got their season back on track.

However, it was back to the bad old days for Liverpool as goals from Ricardo Fuller and Kenwyne Jones left the Reds eight points off the top four and in fact closer to the relegation zone than the Champions League places.

Hodgson’s bad night was compounded by Liverpool fans singing the name of Kenny Dalglish and it looks as though the former Fulham boss could be out on his backside should results not improve.

“I think we are trying to do the best job we can in the circumstances and I don’t know that that type of singing helps anyone,” said Hodgson.

“But I didn’t hear it and I am sure there are lots of fans who sympathise with us and what we are trying to do.”

Liverpool’s prospects for the rest of the season seem to be as tough to predict as the lottery numbers but while they are eight points off fourth place you wouldn’t back against them making a charge towards the upper echelons of the Premier League (Liverpool 10/11 top six finish).

While Hodgson refused to criticise his team after their poor performance Manchester United boss Sir Alex Ferguson had no such problems, claiming his side “were all over the place” in their 2-2 draw with Aston Villa.

United came from two down with ten minutes to go to snatch a point but could have been dead and buried had Villa taken their chances, the home side hitting the post twice and the bar once in the second half.

Ferguson admitted after the game his side were lucky they weren’t’ further behind but was happy that they managed to rescue a point after such a disjointed display.

“We could have lost six goals in the second half. They hit the woodwork three times and Albrighton missed two great chances.

“We were all over the place.

“To be 2-0 down with 10 minutes to go you have to be pleased with that. With another five minutes we would have won the match, there was no doubt about that, but we waited too long to get there.”

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Defoe in Young Boys gamble

Spurs boss Harry Redknapp admits he is willing to gamble on the fitness of striker Jermain Defoe against Young Boys (12/1 in Match Betting) in the Champions League tonight, even though he might last only 45 minutes.

Defoe (10/3 – Two or More Goals) will miss England’s European Championship qualifiers against Bulgaria and Switzerland next month after Spurs (2/9) decided to book him in for groin surgery after the vital play-off with the Swiss club.

The striker has been dogged by the problem since the World Cup, fading out of Spurs’ season opener against Manchester City and lasting 66 minutes of the first leg in Switzerland before coming off.

He could be out for up to a month which would rule him out of Spurs’ Premier League matches against West Brom and Wolves – plus their first Champions League group game, should they progress.

“He’s not trained a lot,”  Redknapp said.

“When he has trained, he’s been all right, he’s been sticking goals in. But then he’s had days off where he couldn’t train. And he’s getting worse, he’s getting worse all the time. Sixty minutes is about as much as he can last.

“It might only be half a game he can last now, but it’s getting less each time – the pain’s getting worse. He can’t go on like that.”

Luka Modric is out after failing to recover from a groin problem he suffered in the first leg, giving another chance to Jermaine Jenas.

However, Redknapp may decide to play Wilson Palacios with Tom Huddlestone in the middle and give another opportunity to Giovani Dos Santos on the right-hand side.

The Mexican, Robbie Keane and Roman Pavlyuchenko were all involved in light training on Wednesday morning and are ready to play a part.

Young Boys boss Vladimir Petkovic’s only injury absentees come in the form of defenders Emiliano Dudar and Hassan Lingani, both of whom did not feature in the first leg.

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