Graham Hunter: Will Ronaldo return to Manchester United? Here’s what you need to know…

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter reveals the role Chevrolet and Nike could play in Ronaldo’s transfer to Manchester United from Real Madrid, but suggests it still might not be enough, due to the influence of the great Zinedine Zidane…

Here is a stone cold fact. There is a much-better-than-evens chance that Cristiano Ronaldo will return to play for Manchester United.

In fact, right now, that idea is very much part of the plans of both the Old Trafford legend and his immensely powerful agent Jorge Mendes.

However, that’s only the ‘whether’. The ‘how’ and the ‘when’ very much remain subject to whim, vast sums of money, the player’s will and an absolutely fascinating battle – Sir Alex Ferguson v Zinedine Zidane.

Fergie, when he was young, had a much more elegant and cultured left foot than people now recall. It was WELL within his talents to exceed 1000 keepie uppies before the ball hit the ground.

But, Zizou he was not.

Ronaldo’s goal stats for Man United and Real Madrid

Ronaldo statsbomb

Why Ronaldo and Ferguson are bound forever

However Ferguson is patently the Zidane of modern football management. He also inspires trust, affection and respect from Ronaldo. As disparate are the two men’s attitudes as to how life is to be led, what constitutes ‘fashionable’ and whether conspicuous consumption is or isn’t the eighth deadly sin, the Portuguese and the Scot are unified by one thing above all else: an ability to dedicate themselves ruthlessly to winning.

Many talk about it, very few are capable of it.

Like MENSA members (or Masons), such people instantly recognize each other and either bond forever or become implacable enemies.

Ronaldo and Ferguson are bound forever.

United know, have known for a long, long time, that life at Real Madrid is NOT the dream ticket Ronaldo imagined it would be.

While they benefitted from an £80m transfer fee, the real reason Ferguson and United allowed Ronaldo to leave for the Spanish capital is directly equated to the reason Ferguson let Carlos Queiroz go there too.

Some, particularly in Iberia, don’t simply view, but feel in their soul, that Real Madrid is the most toweringly important club in the history of football.

His problems at Real Madrid

Yes, yes, okay. Ronaldo was going to earn shedloads of money for going there, as was his agent. But the trigger, the reason for yearning to go was not cash.

Ronaldo desperately wanted to play for Madrid, add his name alongside (even above) those of Gento, Di Stefano, Raúl, Figo and Zidane.

Ferguson understood.

Unless you get that concept, then you won’t get what’s going on in his mind right now.

While in Spain Ronaldo has seen his Ballon D’Or status evaporated by Messi and, professionally, he’s endured more frustration than elation.

His personal form doesn’t need discussing. He’s scored more than a goal per game, very nearly as many away as at home, and he’s certainly a more complete team player now, aged 28, than when he left Old Trafford.

But Real Madrid has been a let down. He has three medals from his four seasons, but only one that would rank of supreme importance to him (despite his brilliant winning header in the Copa Del Rey final of 2010), which is the exceptional Liga victory of 2011/12.

Zinedine Zidane

INFLUENCE: Ferguson, in his new role, is up against Real Madrid legend Zinedine Zidane

Internal politics rage in the Perez fiefdom

Was United under Sir Alex a fiefdom? Yes, in a wholly positive sense, it probably was. There Ronaldo felt protected, developed, trusted, backed in public with coruscating rhetoric – valued. United felt like a high performance organisation.

Madrid hasn’t. It’s currently Florentino Pérez’s fiefdom and, now, will be for a further four years given the uncontested Presidential elections earlier this summer.

But it’s a place where internal politics rage, where Jose Mourinho’s putsch to gain precisely the overall power which Sir Alex earned over the years at Old Trafford didn’t end up benefitting Ronaldo – it’s a high performance organisation, which is under performing.

It’s also a mirage that because Mourinho and Ronaldo share a nationality and an agent that all was sweetness and light between them. It wasn’t.

Ronaldo, coincidentally, is constructed the same way as Ferguson. Dominate opponents, thrash opponents when you can, play on the front foot all the time, add goals when the chance is there, entertain – adhere to the ruthless need to win, but do it via attacking football.

If you asked Ronaldo what Mourinho would have done on the touchline of the Camp Nou in 1999 when Teddy Sheringham equalised in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich and assistant Steve McClaren was urging closing the 90 minutes out so that extra time was a guarantee, he’d know the answer alright. And he’d disagree.

Mourinho got it wrong at Real

The sad thing for Madrid fans is that Ronaldo, while setting new standards of professionalism, dedication, excellence and scoring, has made it clear where he diverges from the party line at Madrid.

It was Ronaldo waving his team forward, against team orders, when they went on to lose 0-2 at home to Barca in the 2010 Champions League semi final.

His idea was right, it was the Madridista idea – Mourinho proved to have got it wrong.

When he admitted he was ‘sad’ last Autumn he underlined with complete sincerity, that he wasn’t asking for more money, for a better contract.

It was true.

He was making it clear that a) he didn’t feel that there was the right unity and desire at the club b) that Real Madrid was repeatedly guilty of not ‘protecting’ him in public, (even the President not accompanying him to institutional events) and c) he yearned for more spectacular football.

Ronaldo v Barcelona calm down

The options for Ronaldo now

Ronaldo has two more years on his Madrid contract.

Now, right now, is the red ‘danger’ zone for the club if they don’t renew him. IF they cannot convince him to renew before the end of the season then…

  • a) The summer will be eaten up by the World Cup and then holidays and he’ll return for duty just a few months from being able to sign for anyone he pleased on January 1 2015. For free.
  • b) They will be faced with the thorny choice of selling him cut price in late summer 2014 or taking the ‘Hail Mary’ approach of letting him enter his last year of contract in the hope of persuading him to stay – but with the risk of needing to sell.

Their main weapons, now, are not only new coach Carlo Ancelotti (whose words “we need to play spectacularly, this is Real Madrid” won’t have displeased Ronaldo) and Zidane.

Zizou is assistant coach to Ancelotti but he’s also someone who is now guiding the President, talking to the players, influencing who signs for them (Varane, Isco) and attempting to return grandeur to the nine time European Champions.

Zidane can, in theory, begin to sculpt the kind of Real Madrid Ronaldo always wanted.

However at United, Sir Alex Ferguson can still, from his new role, do the same for Ronaldo.

The fact that he is still involved, not fully retired, is a bonus to the Reds as far as Ronaldo is concerned.

Their kit sponsors, Nike, want Ronaldo back and are willing to financially influence that.

Their shirt sponsors, Chevrolet, view Ronaldo as not only a huge boost to the football operation but a massive marketing magnet all over the planet – but most particularly in the US.

Florentino would be lynched for selling CR7

If Real Madrid can be convinced to sell before the end of this market, I’ll be amazed. The fans now adore him, he’s the club’s best player by a zillion miles and he’s someone around whom a charge for la Decima, the tenth European Cup, can be mounted.

Florentino would be lynched for selling. But can the deal be constructed and put in place for next summer: Yes.

Would United be the leading candidate to sign him if he left for free in 2015: Yes.

Hundreds of millions of pounds are involved in this, share prices are involved in this, Presidential ego is involved. Predict with a voice of total certainty  how it will play out at your own risk.

But there is a race to convince Ronaldo about how he spends most of the next five years of his playing life. And United are right in it.

  • Betting: Can Manchester United win the Premier League title race without Ronaldo?

Graham Hunter is the author of the award-winning book, Barca: The Making of the Greatest Team in the World. He is a regular contributor to the Paddy Power Blog on football and an all-round good guy. Follow him on Twitter here

Dive into Hunter’s archives on the Paddy Power Blog here


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Here’s why Gotze’s absence doesn’t mean Dortmund are done for

Graham Hunter byline

European football expert Graham Hunter has three bets out of left field for the neutral in the all-German Champions League Final on Saturday night at Wembley.

If you’d blindfolded David, tied one arm behind his back and replaced the stone in his sling with cotton wool you’d STILL have a bigger crowd of backers on him to win his one-on-one with Goliath than those favouring  Borussia Dortmund on Saturday night.

Even though we saw Manchester United beat Bayern Munich without Paul Scholes and Roy Keane in 1999, Barcelona beat United in 2009 without Eric Abidal, Rafa Marquez and Dani Alves,  Chelsea beat Bayern without John Terry, Branislav  Ivanovic, Ramires and Raul Meireles – the absence of Mario Gotze seems to have been taken as the end of Dortmund’s hopes.

Lukasz Piszczek needs a hip operation post final because he’s in persistent pain. And if Mats Hummels starts then the spotlight will be trained right on him because of the ankle problem which he suffered in defeat against Hoffenheim last weekend.

SOCCER: One-nation European finals

The theory is that Gotze is so outstanding, such an important gateway for Dortmund’s high energy, vertical playing philosophy – that his absence is disastrous.

Bayern are football’s Terminators.

In summary they’ve scored a million goals this season, teams are petrified to score against them in case they get a knuckle sandwich, everyone’s in perfect form, each of their players is quicker, taller, stronger than their rivals. As they’d say in Goodfellas: ‘Forget about it’.

And all joking aside, Jupp Heynckes’ side are tremendous to watch and a real swine (or Schweini) to play against.

Having dominated Dortmund domestically this season, Supercup, German Cup, Bundesliga, it really would be a massive setback for Bayern not to complete the set with the Champions League trophy which their butter-fingers let slip 12 months ago against Chelsea.

And if you want to put your sterling, your Euros or even the odd Deutschmark from down the back of the sofa on Bayern the evidence keeps on mounting to say you’re spot on.

Dortmund’s key player, Robert Lewandowski, is off to Bayern once the final is over so who knows how he’ll handle the pressure of leading the line against his new employers?

Ripped out fingernails

Bayern romped to Wembley against Juventus and Barcelona on an 11-0 aggregate scoreline while Dortmund ripped out all their fingernails while clinging on for wins against Malaga and Real Madrid.

An open and shut case – right?

Possibly so.  However it’s a fact that in the last 10 matches between the sides, in all competitions, Dortmund have won five and drawn two – not a bad record.

Equally, it’s just a year since Jurgen Klopp’s side won the German Cup final 5-2 against a Bayern XI which, barring the injuries to Holger Badstuber and Toni Kroos, could feasibly start on Saturday night.

Whether or not you fancy Bayern to ultimately do the logical thing and win there may be one or two factors worth taking into account.

  • In seven of those last 10 matches between the sides Dortmund have scored the first goal.
  • Of the three previous European Cup finals between teams from the same country familiarity hasn’t bred contempt – but penalty shoot-outs instead

AC Milan beat Juve on spot-kicks in 2003, Manchester United did the same to Chelsea in 2008 and if you consider that of the four matches between Bayern and Dortmund this season there have been two draws and two single-goal wins for the Bundesliga champions then perhaps extra time and penalties aren’t wildly fanciful.

Then there is the theme which the bashful, inarticulate, wallflower Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp himself introduced.

Champions League

GERMAN MENACE: Lewandowski, Klopp, Muller and Bond baddie Blofeld

Ahead of the final he said:

Bayern want the Bundesliga to be a one- team league. It’s like James Bond but they aren’t Bond, they are the other guy. They want to dominate Europe and Germany for a decade.

Klopp also admits that when he heard that Gotze had been bought out of his contract by Bayern Munich it devastated him for a night – enough to make him miss his friend starring in a movie Premier and the red carpet, Rolls Royce evening which was in store for Herr and Frau Klopp by association.

In one fell swoop with his Bond-villain quotes he managed to make this a grudge match and to invoke ‘underdog’ sympathy for his side.

This isn’t a tie which generally produces a flood of red cards, although Rafinha was sent off during the recent Bundesliga draw, and there have only been two red cards in European Cup finals – Arsenal ‘keeper Jens Lehmann and Didier Drogba in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Good luck to Italian ref Nicola Rizzoli who has issued only four red cards in 39 Uefa club matches. Perhaps, just perhaps, he’ll augment that total.

Now, given that it’s the last vital club game of my working season I’m going to indulge on that sixth-sense ‘instinct’ call. Only two players, Samel Eto’o and Raul Gonzalez, have scored in two Champions League finals and Thomas Muller, is a punt of mine to score in two consecutively.

It’s hard to envisage Dortmund having a chance unless Lewandowski provides them with a goal but Nuri Sahin is a massive favourite of Klopp’s and it’s feasible that a weight of responsibility will fall on his shoulders now that Gotze is out. A surprise goal or man of the match?

It could easily be hostile, it’ll be passionate, noisy and intense. Get your bets on, get the beers in sit back and enjoy a cracker.

Graham’s best bets for the Champions League final:

  • Muller time:  Thomas to score for Bayern in consecutive finals
  • Early bath: What are the odds on a red card being shown?
  • Too close to call: See our extra-time and penalties market
  • Sahin surprise: What price the man of the match award

MBS


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Graham Hunter: The glaring problems Barca have ignored — or worsehttp://paddypowerblog.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post-new.php?post_type=post — not yet identified

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

  • “Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
  • “What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

Nobody of sane mind would ignore the brutal way in which Barcelona’s current deficiencies were exposed by the Bavarians, nor can there be anything other than admiration for the relentless way in which Jupp Heynckes’ team has pursued what may, surprisingly, become the first treble in their remarkable history.

With all due respect to Dortmund, who will traipse in second to Bayern in the Bundesliga and who gave up their German Cup defence to the same team, it is the AllianzArena club which is world number one.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

They lost the German title to Dortmund by 11 points, calamitously failed to put Chelsea to bed in the Champions League final and blew the German Cup final 5-2 to Jurgen Klopp’s side, despite Martio Gotze not playing and Roman Weidenfeller needing to be substituted after half an hour.

That night Bayern used Neuer, Lahm, Alaba, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Ribéry, Robben, Gómez, Thomas Muller plus the currently injured Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber. Most of the troops who just trod all over Barcelona.

In Bavaria the season was seen as something approaching a disaster, certainly deeply humiliating. Just 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Dortmund had played like dumplings in Europe. Bottom of their group, five points behind third-placed Olympiakos, they’d been beaten home and away by Marseille, mustering only four points and conceding 12 goals in a group Arsenal won.

I’d wager that nobody of any vision or sense condemned either of the Bundesliga’s big two as “finished”, or believed that those events signalled an end to the general rise and rise of German football.

Bayern column by Graham Hunter

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

  1. It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
  2. The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
  3. Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
  4. Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

Now, wait, I know that the short-of-attention and the dim-of-wit will already be misinterpreting all this and getting ready to tweet in rage. So let’s recap.
Bayern were superb. Bayern are currently much more powerful, quick and competitive than the Spanish champions-elect.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Bayern bought Dante, Mandzukic and Javi Martinez last summer and radically strengthened themselves. This route is available to Barcelona. With a proper centre-half added, with height introduced to one of the full-back positions, an aggressive, hard-working, top-class centre forward and the majority of the current squad fully fit Barcelona will be, at least, competitive again and contenders to not only give Bayern or Dortmund a decent game but to win the Champions League next May.

However, here are the trends which are more persuasive, more influential. Bayern’s strategy and intelligence, to me, are very reminiscent of the brilliant building of Barcelona from 2003 onwards when the Joan Laporta era, even with the odd blip, returned flair, power, success and thrills to the Camp Nou. There is a philosophy, there is ambition, there is consistency and both transfer records and wage structures are being broken.

They have seriously damaged Dortmund by snaffling Gotze and if they add Robert Lewandowski too it’s a huge double whammy. Pep Guardiola was hired not to have a decent season in 2013/14 or to fight off Dortmund. No, the Catalan has been put on the staff in order to try to increase the chances that Bayern repeatedly win the Champions League and become Europe’s dominant force for a handful of years. The fact that he’s inheriting a powerful side is unquestionably in his favour — not an obstacle.

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

At Barcelona you get a strong impression that notable problems: player fatigue, the absence of height, power and pace and the absolute glaring requirement for one, perhaps two aerially excellent defenders, are being ignored. Or worse, is it feasible they haven’t been identified?

Moreover the determination to prioritise the purchase of Neymar appears blind to the fact that however good the Brazilian may be he’s far from anything like the most important kind of signing Barca need to make right now.

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona took a right hook to the jaw this week. It landed because they’ve dropped their guard and been leading with their chin. But so long as the decision-making process at the Catalan club now starts to match the quality of thinking in Bavaria it’s only a knockdown, not a knockout.

  • Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
  • Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<


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Graham Hunter: The glaring problems Barca have ignored — or worse — not yet identified

Graham Hunter byline

Spanish football expert and author of Barca, Graham Hunter, addresses the big questions for the Paddy Power Blog after Barcelona’s big defeat to Bayern Munich.

The two questions I’ve most-often been asked since the Champions League semi-final demolition of Spain’s representatives by the physique and technique of the Bundesliga are:

  • “Is this a total power-shift in European football?”
  • “What the hell do Bayern need Pep Guardiola for? I bet he wishes the season hadn’t gone like this.”

The latter idea shows how short some memories are or, at least, how some people simply judge on what they last saw rather than delving deeper into a subject.

Nobody of sane mind would ignore the brutal way in which Barcelona’s current deficiencies were exposed by the Bavarians, nor can there be anything other than admiration for the relentless way in which Jupp Heynckes’ team has pursued what may, surprisingly, become the first treble in their remarkable history.

With all due respect to Dortmund, who will traipse in second to Bayern in the Bundesliga and who gave up their German Cup defence to the same team, it is the AllianzArena club which is world number one.

No question so, having made that clear let’s not forget that it’s only 12 short months since Bayern felt exactly like Barcelona do right now.

Just 12 months since a Bavarian disaster

They lost the German title to Dortmund by 11 points, calamitously failed to put Chelsea to bed in the Champions League final and blew the German Cup final 5-2 to Jurgen Klopp’s side, despite Martio Gotze not playing and Roman Weidenfeller needing to be substituted after half an hour.

That night Bayern used Neuer, Lahm, Alaba, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Ribéry, Robben, Gómez, Thomas Muller plus the currently injured Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber. Most of the troops who just trod all over Barcelona.

In Bavaria the season was seen as something approaching a disaster, certainly deeply humiliating. Just 12 months ago. Meanwhile, Dortmund had played like dumplings in Europe. Bottom of their group, five points behind third-placed Olympiakos, they’d been beaten home and away by Marseille, mustering only four points and conceding 12 goals in a group Arsenal won.

I’d wager that nobody of any vision or sense condemned either of the Bundesliga’s big two as “finished”, or believed that those events signalled an end to the general rise and rise of German football.

Bayern column by Graham Hunter

PUZZLING TIMES: Do Barca need Neymar? Losing Gotze is a huge Dortmund blow. Pep was hired for repeated success at Bayern. Barca have suffered badly without the likes of ironman Carles Puyol

Four points for the dim-of-wit…

Thus it’s time, despite the brutality of the results for Barcelona and Real Madrid, to make sure that any conclusions drawn about Barcelona this week are reliable rather than rabid.

  1. It’s at least relevant contextually that in Carles Puyol, Javier Mascherano, (Jordi Alba) and Eric Abidal, Barcelona were missing four world-class defensive footballers who, if fit, would at minimum added power, experience, pace and aggression to the woeful work which brought them a seven-goal aggregate defeat.
  2. The world’s greatest footballer was as good as absent from all 180 minutes of the matches.
  3. Sergio Busquets may not be to everyone’s tastes but when he plays well, Barcelona rock. Like Messi, also because of injury, he was as good as absent from the tie.
  4. Tito Vilanova, a first-year rookie who has just returned from a near three-month battle against cancer made a number of downright weird decisions which analysis of the cataclysmically bad defeat begs for more information.

Now, wait, I know that the short-of-attention and the dim-of-wit will already be misinterpreting all this and getting ready to tweet in rage. So let’s recap.
Bayern were superb. Bayern are currently much more powerful, quick and competitive than the Spanish champions-elect.

The seven-goal margin didn’t flatter them. But if people want to rip Barça’s current squad and their likely future to shreds then a touch of restraint, context and caution are needed.

I know what you bought last summer

Bayern bought Dante, Mandzukic and Javi Martinez last summer and radically strengthened themselves. This route is available to Barcelona. With a proper centre-half added, with height introduced to one of the full-back positions, an aggressive, hard-working, top-class centre forward and the majority of the current squad fully fit Barcelona will be, at least, competitive again and contenders to not only give Bayern or Dortmund a decent game but to win the Champions League next May.

However, here are the trends which are more persuasive, more influential. Bayern’s strategy and intelligence, to me, are very reminiscent of the brilliant building of Barcelona from 2003 onwards when the Joan Laporta era, even with the odd blip, returned flair, power, success and thrills to the Camp Nou. There is a philosophy, there is ambition, there is consistency and both transfer records and wage structures are being broken.

They have seriously damaged Dortmund by snaffling Gotze and if they add Robert Lewandowski too it’s a huge double whammy. Pep Guardiola was hired not to have a decent season in 2013/14 or to fight off Dortmund. No, the Catalan has been put on the staff in order to try to increase the chances that Bayern repeatedly win the Champions League and become Europe’s dominant force for a handful of years. The fact that he’s inheriting a powerful side is unquestionably in his favour — not an obstacle.

Have Barca not spotted their problems?

At Barcelona you get a strong impression that notable problems: player fatigue, the absence of height, power and pace and the absolute glaring requirement for one, perhaps two aerially excellent defenders, are being ignored. Or worse, is it feasible they haven’t been identified?

Moreover the determination to prioritise the purchase of Neymar appears blind to the fact that however good the Brazilian may be he’s far from anything like the most important kind of signing Barca need to make right now.

Also, it’s a signing which has the hallmarks of something which could undermine Leo Messi’s sense of well-being at the Camp Nou.

Barcelona took a right hook to the jaw this week. It landed because they’ve dropped their guard and been leading with their chin. But so long as the decision-making process at the Catalan club now starts to match the quality of thinking in Bavaria it’s only a knockdown, not a knockout.

  • Read football insight with real passion — more from Graham Hunter on the Paddy Power Blog
  • Mischief makers: Have you read Guido Fawkes, Not Big Sam, FourFourTom, Joey Barton and Paul Galvin yet?

Who’s your money on for the Champions League Final then? >Get the latest odds right here<


Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Mesut Ozil rising to the occasion

Graham Hunter byline

European football expert Graham Hunter (@bumpergraham) is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure will prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

How Ozil became the key man

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski’s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons.

What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

Pepe is the weak link

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

VIDEO: Watch for Graham Hunter’s tips on Dortmund v Real Madrid


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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Ozil rising to the occasion.

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European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure to prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home,  admittedly in defeat,  his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski´s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons. What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack,  Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

 


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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, a 12/1 tip and a zebra

Graham Hunter byline

European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting tonight’s Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Barcelona to end all square.

{Find out Graham’s 12/1 tip by scrolling down and watching the video} 

There’s an old saying from the hard-boiled private detective fiction of  Raymond Chandler and his cronies which I love – “If you hear the sound of hooves coming, don’t look for zebras – it’ll be horses”.

Those writers used it to say ‘don’t look beyond the obvious suspect’ and perhaps it applies to Bayern v Barça tonight.

The Bavarians have stomped all over their domestic competition and gave Juve a slapping in the last round.

Barça are full of incognitos (is Busquets fully recovered from his groin strain? Is Messi properly fit for his explosive bursts of genius? Who will play alongside Piqué? Bartra? Abidal?) and they’ve played without their old intensity in the second half of this season.

So, perhaps it’s stupid to look for a zebra when we are going to see a horse?

Many of the shrewd bets must favour the home team. But I think there are some minor indications that the nag might be sporting one or two stripes tonight.

Barça haven’t lost in Germany for eleven years – five wins and three draws in that time.

Barça love to face teams who are going to give them a game – Philip Lahm’s words about going toe-to-toe with Tito Vilanova’s side will be very welcome. They get SO sick of having to unpick defences with ten men behind the ball all the time.

Teams who attack them give them spaces – and chances. If Messi is firing on all cylinders then, obviously, he’s the banker bet to exploit them.

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However I like Pedro – quick, a deceptively good finisher and with a couple of recent big goals (against PSG and France) to his name. It was actually against this keeper, Manuel Neuer, he learned a big lesson. World Cup semi final 2010, through one on one and with Fernando Torres alone beside him Pedro tried to round the keeper, his studs slipped on the arid African pitch and the chance for 2-0 was gone. Coaches for Spain and then Pep Guardiola advised him to shoot hard, low and early in similar circumstances. He’s done it and perhaps he´ll come full circle tonight.

If you are betting in-play then watch Busquets. Against PSG, both games, he was wildly out of form and Barça were far the worse for it. If that groin strain has fully healed and he fires on all cylinders the Spanish league leaders function much better, simple as that. In fact if he does fire up, I’d back them not to lose. Vice versa too.

The ref? Viktor Kassai is a straight shooter. Barça won’t be looking to him for favours. But this is a guy who brings good memories for them – that 1-0 Spain v Germany World Cup semi final (no bookings and no reds in the entire match), a red card for Paul Pogba for stamping on Xavi’s ankle in that Spain 1-0 France match last month, the Champions League final of 2011 when he took an hour to book anyone and Barça’s 4-0 win over Milan this season when, again, only four bookings (one for Barça, Pedro).

To Kassai’s great credit he seems to blend southern and northern European reffing styles – a rarity.

A fine game, Bayern deserve to start favourites, both teams to score. Four goals shared. Enjoy.

  • Betting: Bayern Munich v Barcelona


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Barcelona might struggle but back Cesc Fabregas to score or assist

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European football expert Graham Hunter explains why there are major concerns for Barcelona in their Champions League quarter-final, but why Cesc Fabregas should be backed to continue his red-hot form.

Right now everyone is waiting to see whether or not Leo Messi starts against PSG. Just for the moment I’m far more interested in another kind of weighting. Sometimes the force of pre-match opinion stems from unassailable facts and it’s true to say that, at the Camp Nou, and with two away goals, history favours FC Barcelona.

But there are major provisos.

The weighting, or handicapping, which the Champions League and the natural ageing process have introduced to this tie make it fascinating – and risky for the home team.

To explain. There have been times when Barcelona have not simply been divine to watch, they’ve been an absolute brute to play against.

Particularly during the heights of Pep Guardiola’s reign I loved the mixed zone after the match. You’d interview Barcelona’s opponents and, well before praising the Blaugrana, they’d explain to you what a horrible experience it was when you didn’t have a millisecond to think, not a blink of the eye to just ensure the ball was properly controlled.

Playing Barcelona was like trying to compose a classical symphony in a kids’ nursery – constant harassment, increasing irritability, total futility.

Not now. In each of the four seasons when Barça have won this competition they’ve conceded two goals or fewer across all four quarter-final and semi-final matches.

The two conceded at Parc des Princes indicates that, historically, if Barça ship even one more goal then they are in big trouble.

So, is there something to worry about? Yes. Here’s the weighting.

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither will feature tonight. Nor will Wayne Rooney who can watch a Made In Chelsea re-run instead

MASCHERANO AND PUYOL: Neither man will feature in the Nou Camp this evening

Carles Puyol has always defied his lack of height, always brought that little bit of extra ‘the badge matters’ to Barça’s displays. But he’s out.

Javier Mascherano is often, albeit not always, a useful deputy at centre back and was a star performer in the 4-0 win over AC Milan last time. He’s out.

Tito Vilanova, just back from cancer treatment in New York, needs to choose between Marc Bartra, Alex Song, Adriano, Busquets and Uncle Tom Cobbley when he chooses Gerard Piqué’s playing partner.

Meanwhile, there’s no escaping that PSG not only possess players to attack the ball aerially with extreme skill and power, they can also call on a number of footballers who use the ball well when putting the ball into the penalty box.

Moreover, Barça’s other kryptonite, pace, is something which PSG have to a reasonable degree. Lucas, particularly, is blindingly quick and Ezequiel Lavezzi has more savvy about when to counter attack than he has blistering pace. But sometimes it’s all about the first few metres in your head, not your feet.

So while Barcelona are at home, have two away goals, possess a terrific Champions League record at the Camp Nou and can boast a handful of World Champions (Xavi, Iniesta, Pedro, Victor Valdés, Busquets, David Villa, Cesc Fabregas and Piqué) there are a couple of specifics in the PSG locker which alter the handicapping.

IF Messi doesn’t start, and he patently wants to given the extra training, extra physio and extra recuperation work he´s undertaken since last week, then Barça are reduced from, I’d still say, the best in the world to a very good team.

IF, into the bargain, PSG have one of those nights when the ball is used well and Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan keep winning it in the air then we could have quite a tie.

To the meat.

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

AB FAB: Cesc Fabregas is on a hot streak and is worth a few quid to score

Cesc Fabregas is, in my opinion, a streak scorer. Not prolific, prolific, but it´s the case that his five-a-side background has made him a very efficient, silky finisher.

And while he talks with a great deal of self-assurance, I’m of the opinion that his self belief fluctuates. Hence the reason he scores in bursts. Get one goal – four or five follow.

The stats tell the story. Four in four in August and September 20007, five in four in December and January 09/10, four in four during February and March 2010, five in four with Barça August and September 2011 then four in three across December and January 2012. Following his first hat trick and two assists at the weekend, back him to score and or assist tonight.

Having said that PSG looked capable of scoring again at the Camp Nou when Alex, Thiago Silva and Zlatan won the ball in the air from set-plays and open play. Lavezzi, too, will feed off the knockdowns the Swede will provide him. Perm through and pick one of them for a goal.

  • Betting: Barcelona v PSG

Juventus v Bayern Munich

Juventus? They simply didn’t show up last week. But Antonio Conte has been firing his men up to fever pitch. He’s told them that Bayern Munich dived in the first tie, that Franz Beckenbuer insulted Gigi Buffon and that Juve embarrassed themselves.

Way to stoke up an atmosphere!

Bayern were limited in their Bundesliga title celebrations on Saturday but, even so, there is often a ‘hangover’. I take Juve to sneak a win, Vucnic to score and Spanish referee Velasco Carballo to be pushed into breaking his record of never having shown a red card in his 29 Uefa ties thus far.

  • Betting: Juventus v Bayern Munich


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Find out who is Real Madrid’s most important player (Hint: It ain’t Ronaldo!)

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European football expert Graham Hunter thinks Real Madrid will struggle without their most influential player, but they should still make the Champions League semi-finals.

Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Although there are some who, incorrectly and unfairly, judge him harshly because of his naked desire to win everything all the time and because his match-face shows every emotion in its starkest form (joy, frustration, anger, self recrimination and, yes, even arrogance) I’m a serious Cristiano Ronaldo fan.

He’s phenomenally gifted, he’s an utterly outstanding professional and off the pitch he’s both bright and articulate. There’s not a great deal more to ask for.

His goal-to-game ratio is redefining, exploding really, what we think the very best striker should be producing and were it not for Leo Messi we’d already be arguing where Ronaldo fits in the all-time pantheon.

As such, the Portuguese is Real Madrid’s most important player – at least when it comes to winning matches.

However he’s not the most important of José Mourinho’s squad when it comes to ensuring that Madrid don’t lose. That’s Xabi Alonso.

XABI ALONSO: The most important member

XABI ALONSO: Without him Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid are disjointed

Particularly when Mourinho uses his preferred formation (preferred as Madrid coach at least) of 4-2-3-1 the importance of the two organising, distributing, defending midfielders who pair in front of the back four is enormous.

Moreover, Alonso is very good there. Without him Madrid consistently look like a puppet with one of its six strings cut – in motion, possibly entertaining, but disjointed.

Order diminishes, confidence drops, decision making becomes less clinical and the tempo often decreases.

He, Sergio Ramos and, quite possibly, Pepe are all going to miss out tonight at the Türk Telecom Arena and I think it’ll cost Madrid. I doubt it will cost them progression to the semi final but it might just cost them a win on the night.

Madrid’s stats against Turkish teams aren’t ample but it’s a fact that they’ve still to win against a Turkish side, Galatasaray or Besiktas, apart from in Spain.

Diego Lopez and Rafa Varane have been standouts in recent months but with a denuded back four (likely no Arbeloa, Ramos or Pepe) and with Alonso absent I think it’s reasonable to take Galatasaray to score – and why not Didier Drogba? So, Madrid to suffer, Madrid to go through, Ronaldo to score, Drogba to score and, I have a sneaking feeling, one of Diego Lopez’s more testing nights.

  • Betting: Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

What of Málaga in Dortmund? Well, if you take mood to be as important an initial guide to their chances as the suspensions they suffered in the first leg then it’s decent news.

Most of the key players were rested in the 4-2 defeat at Real Sociedad at the weekend, man after man told me in the Mixed Zone last week after the 0-0 draw against the recently deposed German champions that they were 100% confident of getting a score draw at the Signal Iduna Park.

And one more little note about mood. It was very sad to hear of the death of Manuel Pellegrini’s father on Saturday. The Chilean hid the news from his players, coached the match, flew to Chile for the funeral and should be on the bench tonight. His players, and I mean this word, adore him. Their respect for him as a man and a coach is infinite. With what looks like a 30/70 chance of qualification in front of them their effort for Pellegrini will give them an extra jag.

But they’ll need it. Málaga, like Madrid, have an organising central midfielder, Manuel Iturra, and a centre-back, Weligton, suspended. Dortmund score heavily at home, should have won the first leg and have a superior squad. But  Málaga have only conceded 13 times in 27 Uefa matches and have seven clean sheets in their 12 Champions League outings this season.

IF, and I do mean IF there’s a major shock coming then I’d look to Roque Santa Cruz (a great record of wins and draws against Dortmund for Bayern Munich plus the winner at Signal Iduna back in September 2001) to nick a goal for Málaga. Referee Craig Thomson averages precisely four bookings per Champions League match and wouldn’t have a single red card in the competition had Alonso and Ramos not famously forced  orderings-off against Ajax to ‘clean’ their booking count two seasons ago.

Enjoy your football.

  • Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Malaga


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[video] Graham Hunter gives 3 reasons why Real Madrid will beat Manchester United (and a 40/1 tip)

La Liga expert and all-round good guy Graham Hunter put in a Skype call with the Paddy Power Blog on Sunday night. We asked Graham where he saw the value in the betting for Manchester United vs Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday night at Old Trafford. As you’d expect from someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time watching Spanish football, he’s got a few interesting insights ahead of the game….

[Scroll down to watch video]

1. It’s got something to do with a former favourite son at Anfield

Xabi Alonso

IN THE THICK OF IT: Expect some heated exchanges from former Anfield hero Xabi Alonso

2. A little bit of this fella, of course

Ronaldo

THE MAIN MAN: There’s only one reason Real Madrid forked out on Ronaldo

3. …and might well finish with these

Wayne Rooney

ON THE SPOT: Let’s hope Manchester United have been practicing penalties. Real have…

Graham Hunter’s tip: Real Madrid to beat Manchester United on penalties @ 40/1 click here

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