WATCH: Graham Hunter expertly analyse an intriguing El Clasico and give a tasty 7/1 double

11 games into the La Liga season and already we’re looking at an El Clasico meeting with real implications for who will prevail in the presumed two and a half horse race. Rafa Benitez leads Real into the massive clash under massive pressure. Defeat to Sevilla before the international break means Real would fall six points behind with defeat in this. As knee-jerk and ridiculous as it seems, his job could depend on events on Saturday night.

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To expand on some of the stats provided by Graham in the video:

  • There hasn’t been an El Clasico draw in seven meetings. The last came in the Copa Del Rey in January 2013.
  • If it’s a draw, it’s very likely to be of the score variety. All nine of their most recent stalemates have been score draws. It’s for the draw and both teams to score.
  • The last El Clasico scoreless draw came in November 2002. Patrick Kluivert was leading the line for Barca while for Real, Steve McManaman came on for about the last half an hour.

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It’s not all about El Clasico however. It mainly is, but Graham also fancies the for Athletic Bilbao to claim a rare away win at Granada. Here are some of the keys stats.

  • Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in seven games in all competitions, winning the last five on the bounce
  • Granada haven’t won in nine La Liga games.
  • In addition to his tidy haul against Granada, has scored three goals in his last six appearances in all competitions.

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Graham Hunter: Barcelona to win and Real Madrid to draw in this 14/1 La Liga acca

The last time Villarreal visited the Camp Nou they were pumped. Manager Marcelino García Toral said he had just lost a game scripted by his worst enemies. Well they must really hate him now. A 15 hour return from Minsk was the preparation they have this time around. 

Watch the video below:

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Villarreal v Barcelona, Sunday, 3pm

  • Don’t back 0-0. There has been 32 goals in the last 10 meetings
  • Carlos Clos Gómez has never overseen a Barca defeat, but Villarreal have only won 10 from 18 and have had five men sent off
  • Neymar and Suarez have scored 17 of the 20 goals since Messi was injured

Bumpers Bet: Neymar or Suarez anytime and a home win @ 10/11

Sevilla v Real Madrid, Sunday, 19:30

  • A fighting score draw
  • Sevilla to rally and Jose Antonio Reyes to score against his former club
  • Luka Modric to equalize

Bumpers Bet: Reyes to score first and a 1-1 draw @ 50/1

Eibar v Getafe, Saturday, 19:30

  • Back the Basques for a home win
  • Borja Baston to score first

Bumpers Bet: Home win and Borja Baston to score first @ 20/1

Athletic v Espanyol, Sunday, 11:00

  • Comfortable home win
  • Aduriz to open the scoring

Bumpers Bet: Home win and Aduriz to score first @ 16/1

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Video: Graham Hunter returns with this 5/1 La Liga treble led by Antoine Griezmann

Three years ago Antoine Griezmann made his worst mistake getting drunk in Paris and costing him a year in the national side. Fast forward three years and he’s playing out of his skin.

Jackson Martinez scored his first Champions League goal for Atleti in midweek, Torres is scoring and making and Ángel Correa is a nightmare to play against – Home win and both teams to score with Jackson and Griezmann to score.

Watch the video below.

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Atleti Madrid v Valenica, Sunday 19.30, Sky Sports 5

  • Three draws and a win apiece in the last five games at the Calderon
  • Valencia are rubbish on the road and 13th in the table

Graham’s Bet: Atleti to win & Griezmann to score in a wincast @ 2/1

Barca v Eibar Sunday 17.15, Sky Sports 5

  • Mammoth tusk for Eibar to win this one
  • Barca are in red hot form and scored five goals last week

Graham’s Bet: Barca to win & Neymar to score in a wincast @ 8/15

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid, Saturday 16.00

  • Celta have great away form and pumped Barca in Vigo.
  • Rafa has shored up Madrid defensively, but they are going to hate Celta

Graham’s Bet: Score draw & Nolito to score @ 33/1

  • Shoot over to the latest La Liga betting on Mobile | Desktop 

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Graham Hunter: Real Madrid to win the derby, Barcelona to draw away and Ronaldo to make it 15 against Atletico

The Madrid Derby makes it’s first appearance of the season and Sevilla welcome Barcelona to the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium. This weeks Bumper Banker is Madrid to win Ronaldo to score, Barca and Sevilla to play out a score draw and Villarreal to win away to Levante. Every week I call someone out and this week it’s Jackson Martinez the €36 million man who can’t score anymore.

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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid:

  • Ronaldo has only scored one hat-trick against Atletico.
  • He has scored the first goal three times.
  • Atletico have won six times since Simone took over, including four last season.

Sevilla v Barcelona:

  • Barcelona are missing Iniesta, Messi and Bravo. Sevilla are missing Llorente, Vitolo and Pareja. 
  • There has been 24 goals in the last four meeting with Neymar, Banega and Gameiro all getting two.
  • Barcelona have scored five goals twice in the last four games.

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Graham Hunter: Home wins for Sevilla, Real and Barca in my new vlog

Sevilla take on Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad welcome their Basque neighbours Athletic Club to the Anoeta Stadium, Carlos Vela gets called out for packing on the pounds and @veryangrystatto has his question answered. 

It’s all here in my brand new vlog for Paddy Power.

 

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Graham Hunter: Barca, Atleti and Real to pick up this 8/1 La Liga Treble for the weekend

Okay, okay – I hear you Paddy Power punters.

I hear that Atlético Madrid are your most-backed La Liga team to win the title.

So you pretty much didn’t care if the Istanbul inhabitants hoisted their ‘Welcome To Hell’ banners when Diego Simeone’s team reached the Galatasaray stadium on Wednesday.

That was Europe. Pah!

But you’d obviously prefer it if Eibar’s inhabitants, players and hotel owners were all ‘hippy peace and love’  and ‘San Fransisco flowers in your hair’ when Atleti go to the Ipurúa stadium on Saturday night [Sky Sports 19.30]


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The easier Atleti pocket three points the happier you’re gonna feel. Right?

Three points? Quite possibly.

Peace and love? Ain’t gonna happen baby.

Atleti may be kindly regarded by those with rebel sentiments but they are still a ‘Madrid‘ team travelling to the Basque country.

Up there you don’t just get another notch on the bed post for sticking it to any team from the Spanish capital – you get a diamond-encrusted king-sized, four poster with a nubile young chambermaid awaiting your orders. Ribena or Rioja I mean.

Eibar’s right sided midfielder Keko began at Atleti and knows what’s awaiting his former club.

“With coach Mendilibar every one of us knows there’s a single obligation if we want to be picked. “We have to snarl and bite and run like dogs of war. “The day any of us wants the ball to feet or thinks we can play luxury football they’ll be dropped and we’ll lose”

Right now, the world seems upside down.

Atleti, league winners in 2014, Champions League finalists that same month and trophy- winners every single season since 2009/10 are sixth to Eibar’s fifth.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Unlike Cholo Simeone’s team the Basques are unbeaten and Eibar also have the better goal difference.

But since Eibar repaired their pitch, which was like the Somme,  good teams go there, feel unstressed in front of what is [since a couple of weeks ago] a 6,000 maximum crowd and knock the ball about.

Meaning Eibar have a task on their hands.

Antoine Griezmann remains a right good guy to back for both first goal and any-time. Jackson Martinez, too, merits some any-time action.

Buzzing with form given freedom to roam across the front line Griezmann got two in Istanbul in midweek – both off his left foot. [As have 9 of the Frenchman’s last 11 goals been. Hint hint]

Eibar are a cracking story, represent great values – but have their work cut out.

Barça, now here’s a shock, profile as a home banker [19.30 Sunday, Sky Sports]

Lionel Messi 2013

They host Levante, popularly known as the Frogs, who are knee-deep in trouble here.

Geddit? Knee-deep, knee-deep. Frog noises. Okay, never mind.

The Spanish and European champions were much more vulnerable to shocks at home than away last season.

Not only did they lose to Celta and Málaga at the Camp Nou they lost to nil, too [0-1 and 0-1]

Luis Enrique’s team still start without Claudio Bravo, Dani Alves, Gerard Piqué and Rafinha and come off the back of consecutive tiring, testing away matches in Madrid and Rome.

But that should be a question of the win margin, not whether Barcelona triumph.

Every so often the Catalans find this lot a bit indigestible and the margin ends in a single goal.

Far more often it’s a walloping.

Of the last five Levante visits to the Camp Nou Barcelona have scored five twice, seven once – but the others have been 1-0 and 2-1.

Here’s a stat to help you make your decision.

In their seven competitive matches so far Barça have hit the woodwork SEVEN times.

An indication of sloppiness/bad luck? Or that they are just about to punch someone’s lights out goal-wise?

The ‘villains’ have been Rafinha, Pedro, Piqué, Sergi Roberto, Mascherano, Luis Suárez and Messi.

Perm between the Argentinian, Neymar and Suárez for first goal – but I’ve a slight preference for Suárez this time out because he’s bursting with form and confidence while both Neymar and Messi gave evidence, in Rome, that jet lag from the international break still wasn’t out of their systems.

Madrid host Granada early on Saturday [15:00 kick off UK time] and they will win. By 3+.

Cristiano Ronaldo

James Rodríguez, Gareth Bale, Sergio Ramos and Danilo all out injured isn’t a happy stat if you fancy Madrid to rack up five or six goals.

But back Rafa’s boys to win, back them by three or more and back Ronaldo for everything short of the Labour leadership.

Eight goals in his last two games is nothing. Last season he smacked 20 in eleven Liga outings and just five months ago he pumped Granada for five in a 9-1 win in this fixture.

Griezmann, Jackson, Suárez, Messi, Ronaldo for first goalscorer or any time scorer; left footed goal from Griezmann; one goal win for Atleti; Barça and Madrid to win by over two and over three respectively. You’re welcome.

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Graham Hunter: Barca don’t have a great record against Atleti and Antoine Griezmann could haunt them

On paper this is a match that the reigning Spanish and European champions should lose or draw [On paper people!]

Let’s take track record. Thirty times in the last 25 years Barcelona have played Atletico away from home: 15 defeats, six draws only nine wins. Of those nine wins the vast majority have come since the Pep Guardiola-Leo Messi era began.

In other words, prior to this club’s re-birth with the brand of football which is now irrevocably associated with Barça and prior to the explosion of Messi as an all-time great, the Catalans almost always lost this fixture.


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Playing Atleti away is a thorny, bruising business. Many teams end up looking like a ballet dancer trying to get to the bar for a campari ahead of sixteen lock-forward All-Blacks desperate for a beer.

More, the torrent of wins in the last seven years have only come when Barça are fit, confident, full of high tempo passing and defensively sound.

Usually the very best Barça take away is a single goal win. Not always, but predominantly.

So why should Saturday afternoon in the Calderón [literally the Cauldron!] be different.

Gabi

 

  • Can Atleti topple Barca? Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

Firstly, I don’t think that it’s impossible that Barcelona either draw or win. But here’s why Atleti should start favourites.

The champions take the pitch without Claudio Bravo, Gerard Piqué and Dani Alves.

The Champions can no longer call on the experience of Xavi and Pedro in this most thorny, boiling hot of matches. [NB one or other of the two played some minutes in each of Barcleona’s four wins over Atleti last season and Pedro gave Messi the assist for the 1-0 win in the last meeting which clinched the title for Luis Enrique’s side]

Do you consider absences like this small details?

Perhaps you do. Then bet against my guide.

blog_barca_hdr

 

  • Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

But let’s add something else.

Barcelona, with the exception of the European Supercup, haven’t been tucking their chances away with the normal deadly efficiency this season. In losing the Spanish Supercup people focused on Athletic thumping them at San Mames and drawing in the Camp Nou.

Yet Barcelona should, conservatively, have scored six times across those two games.

In winning 1-0 against Athletic and Málaga fewer chances were squandered, defensive rigour, stamina and speed of passing were restored but it’s still the case that the champions haven’t been hitting ramming speed.

Ter Stegen is a fine keeper but his pre-season has been bumpy, he conceded eight times in the two competitive games he played and this will be, remarkably enough, his La Liga debut.

He’s capable of excelling and repelling Atleti if it’s his day.

Good keeper, exceptional as a sweeper-keeper. But bang at the top of his game? Perhaps not quite.

The final element to take into account if you are going to back Barcelona for what would be a monumentally important and impressive away win concerns the strikers.

Lionel Messi 2013

 

  • Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

The ‘Trident‘ is what truly sets Barcelona far apart from the madding crowd around Europe.

I don’t need to explain or promote their brilliance here. But both Neymar and Messi will be suffering the physical and mental tiredness of jet-lag after what Spain calls the ‘Fifa-virus’ [as will Mascherano at the back] while Luis Suárez will be free of that.

But Suárez needs games.

He thrives on three games a week and often just loses a knife-edge of deadly clinical finishing when he’s deprived of competitive football – as he has been now for a fortnight.

Again, could he buck that trend and score/make?

Yes, certainly.

And, pound for pound, Messi’s 23 goals in 26 meetings with Atleti is probably his most impressive domestic performance.

But are they right at their sharpest?

Saturday’s Game:

Atleti? Likely to be Oblak: Juanfran, Jimenez, Godín, Felipe: Gabi, Koke, Oliver, Tiago: Griezmann, Torres/Jackson

Barça? Likely Stegen, Sergi Roberto, Vermaelen, Mascherano, Alba: Rakitic, Busquets, Iniesta: Neymar, Suárez, Messi.

Griezmann didn’t score in four defeats to Barcelona last season but with La Real had both a decent scoring and winning record. He’s on fire right now.

Fernando Torres 800

 

  • Shoot over to our latest Barca v Atleti odds now. Bet now: Mobile | Desktop

An obvious ‘anytime’ scorer bet at 9/5.

So is Messi but maybe there’s a dark horse in Rakitic. He loves the big games – not only the Champions League final v Juve but goals v Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Porto, Bayern as well as three v Atletico across his career.

Finally, Barcelona were excelled at defending the ball into the box last season but have been weak in pre-season and their regular games so far. And with Piqué missing, plus Stegen’s tendency to come for something and not be a stone-cold certainty to get there then Atleti’s Godín, Torres or Giménez might reward you with a header.

Score draw anyone?

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Graham Hunter: La Liga teams in the Champions League, Messi to outscore Ronaldo, Benitez’ to favour La Liga and a 14/1 correct score tip for this weekend

At the beginning of Primal Scream’s brilliant 1990 tune ‘Loaded’ when Frank Maxwell asks Peter Fonda: ‘Just what is it that you want to do?’ Fonda knows the answer.
“We wanna be free to do what we wanna do
“We’re gonna have a good time. “We’re gonna have a party”

And if you asked the Real Madrid fans that same question you’d get exactly the same answer.

Sick of being second best to Barcelona, sick of football they view as pragmatic they want their cake and to eat it.

With champagne, and golden spoons and second helpings.

florentinoperez

But if you asked the President, Florentino Pérez or Madrid’s debutant coach, Rafa Benítez the same ‘just what is it that you want to do?’ question the answer might be different.

Much more pragmatic.

Thursday’s Champions League draw gives them a group perfectly balanced not only for an assault on Europe but for the right kind of early season test.

Paris St Germain have shown over the last three seasons with Barcelona and Chelsea [ten games, two wins, four draws, four defeats] that they are on the rise and that they can threaten anyone on their day.

Not a side Madrid have to fear but one which will mean Los Blancos will need to focus and find top gear [no Primal Scream reference there] in order to subdue.

Madrid start at home, and their first away trip is far easier and less tiring than PSG’s.

Their final group game is at home and against, nominally, the weakest team. Even the schedule is on their side.

However, and this might be heretical, is winning the Champions League actually Benitez’s priority?

‘Just what is it you want me to do, Florentino?’ might well be Rafa’s question to the Madrid President.

RafaelBenitez

Los Blancos have won the Spanish title twice in the last eight years.

Their fans and some of their ‘cyclops-vision’ media not only crave it, they crave the opportunity to wave two fingers at their city neighbours, Atlético, who won the title more recently, and Barcelona, who’ve dominated La Liga for a decade.

More, Carlo Ancelotti was shown the door in the summer just 12 months after winning the Champions League so dramatically against Atleti.

A victory which, if you consider the alternative for Madrid, should really have earned him another five years of job safety at the Bernabéu. It didn’t.

Major League Concerns

So whatever the sheen of Madrid’s history says, whatever the threat of Barça closing the European Cup gap between them still further Rafa Benítez must prioritise doing something he’s not achieved since the last time he coached in Spain, eleven years ago – winning the title.

Will that undermine trying to win La undécima? Madrid’s eleventh Champions Cup?

The answer lies with Ronaldo. Whatever the club’s ambitions he wants more Champions Leagues, he wants to haul Messi back in the Ballon D’Or voting and, judging by his variety of sour looks in Monte Carlo on Thursday, he wants to win the UEFA Best Player In Europe back.

Ronaldo_Messi

Vitally, too, Ronaldo wants to edge ahead of Messi with whom he’s tied at 77 goals apiece at the top of the all-time Champions League scoring list.

With nine games of Rafa in charge Madrid have failed to score on five occasions, usually with Ronaldo absent.

So, I think there’s some fun in the Ronaldo-Messi betting.

The End of His Ron

Ronaldo has significantly outscored his rival over the last four Champions League seasons – by nine.

The last time Messi beat Ronaldo to UCL top scorer was in 2011/12 – coincidentally the last time he had a shot at Bayer Leverkusen or Bate, Barça’s new group rivals.

Against Bernd Leno, Leverkusen keeper, Messi scored six in two matches. In Borisov he put two past BATE.

Clues for this season?

Ronaldo hasn’t faced [and thus not scored against!] any of Madrid’s group rivals.

Lionel Messi

So, a priori, it might be worth an investment that Messi outscores Ronaldo this Uefa season, finishes Champions League top scorer and, thus, establishes the all-time lead.

Valencia, qualifiers, have a group in which Zenit and Lyon are both within Los Che’s orbit – beatable but, equally, capable of exploiting Nuno Espirito Santo’s team if they perform dozily.

The key to qualification is taking at least seven points from the first three games – home to Zenit, away to Lyon and then home to the weakest club, Gent.

In fact having home then away back-to-back matches with the Belgians is manna from heaven in terms of qualifying for the knockouts.

If you run a fantasy football team or like to look for less than obvious scorers then think about Sofiane Feghouli who just loves Uefa football and consistently rises to the challenge.

Their Group to Luis

Barcelona, who I think are capable of being the first to retain this competition, were given a draw that the naive think was wonderful but which will concern Luis Enrique.

Luis Enrique

Ex coach of Roma he’ll understand how hostile it is there and that starting at the Olympic Stadium in Italy’s capital is no ‘gimme’.

That their third fixture is also away, in Belorussia, means that the reigning champions need to start with concentration and hunger.

You’re laughing at me? BATE Borisov you splutter?

Beat Athletic Bilbao last season, thumped Bayern Munich the season before. BATE better than Barça, no. A niggly little test, yes.

And Now For Sevilla And Atlético

Which leaves the two sides who play at the Sanchez Pizjuan on Sunday night [19.30, Sky] – Sevilla and Atlético.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

Atleti catch Benfica [whose striker Jonas didn’t mind a goal or an assist against the Colchoneros during his time with Valencia] at a good time given their consistent sales policy and the loss of influential coach Jorge Jesus.

Galatasaray and Astana carry their levels of threat/difficulty but Diego Simeone’s side is so hard working, so well balanced and so bloody stubborn that they’ll win the group regardless.

Sevilla? Well aside from the €20m cash windfall of qualifying the Champions League has brought them the reality of fighting for elbow room at Europe’s elite table.

Manchester City, Juventus and Borussia Mönchengladbach [who Sevilla put out of Europe last season] may prove too much for qualification, especially after losing three key players in Vidal, M’Bia and Bacca and needing to integrate new guys like Immobile, Konoplyanka and Llorente.

But, could Sevilla surprise everyone again by qualifying? Might they even retain the Europa League for the second consecutive time if not?

This Weekend

As for Sunday, it’s now six Liga and Cup matches since Sevilla beat Atleti at home.

There’s ill feeling between the sides who jostle to be considered third best in Spain – nearly eight bookings per match, average, over the last four meetings if you are a card-counter.

A splurge of reds in the Copa a couple of seasons ago.

Sevilla are nobody’s mugs though having lost just once at home since March 2014 [2-3 to a Ronaldo hat trick in May]

Griezmann, Llorente and a Coke/Koke any time might pay.

Score draw. 2-2 at 14/1.

Atleti: Oblak; Juanfran, Godín, Gímenez, Felipe; Koke, Gabi, Tiago; Oliver; Griezmann, Torres/Jackson
Sevilla: Beto: Coke, Rami, Kolo, Tremoulinas: Banega, Krykowiak: Vitolo, Iborra, Reyes: Immobile/Llorente

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Graham Hunter: Barca v Madrid again, but Atletico will be knocking on the door

If La Liga’s your bag then it’s already clear you know your football and you know that, technically, tactically and trophy-wise it’s the best league in the world – by far. But if you like the increasing tendency for the survival of the fittest, rather than the survival of the richest, this promises to be the season for you.

  • Athletic Club have already ripped into Barcelona putting five past them in the Supercup.
  • Valencia humbled both Madrid and Atlético last season
  • Real Sociedad beat each of the ‘big three’ last term
  • Atleti defeated Madrid in the Copa final of 2013, won the title in 2014 and performed historically well against Los Blancos over the last twelve months. Four ‘derbi’ wins
  • Atleti can consider they cost Madrid title in that Barça won by just two points last May.
  • Positions three, four and five were separated by a single point each time.
  • Barça lost at home to both Málaga and Celta

Diego Simeone wiki edit

 

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There is ferocious competition – it’s just that such competition, allied to mega-budgets, has forced some absolute excellence out of Madrid and Barcelona over recent years. Four Champions League titles between the clubs since 2009 is testimony to that. Frankly, La Liga’s clubs cope better with doing battle against these two than the rest of Europe does.

But while it’s not realistic to ask Sevilla or Valencia to win the title I think Atleti may be back. Or at least they look as threatening, well-organized, balanced and goal-hungry as in winning the title in 2013/14. What Cholo Simeone needs is a wee bit of help from the big two.

Madrid are in the hands of a serial winner. No-one should doubt that IF he’s not undercut by his own employers, IF he’s not caught up in a PR war between Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, IF he doesn’t fall out chronically with the aggressive, quixotic, fair-weather friends of the Madrid media then Rafa Benítez’ talent, added to Los Blanco’s playing resources, could feasibly make them either Spanish or European champions.

Cristiano Ronaldo

 

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But you get my theme? Look at the list of man-traps waiting for him there – and that’s just a sample. It’s a botch-up not to have signed David De Gea by now – Madrid conceded 17 more goals than the champions last season. Can they lock the door this time? Stocking Benítez’s two man midfield in a 4-2-3-1 – will come from Kroos, Modric, Kovacic, Casemiro. Powerful. But the front four? There’s the potential for disharmony, confusion and problems. How to fit in Ronaldo, Bale, Isco, James, Benzema, Lucas Vazquez, Cheryshev, Jesé?

“We have to reach the decisive part of the season attacking and winning games” Benítez said the other day. Madrid fans want that now. In working out your bets you may want to factor in that Los Blancos won ONCE against the rest of the top four in the league. Goal aggregate 8-13 against.

Barcelona have the talent to win another treble –  but do they have the desire or depth of squad? Resources diminished by the FIFA ban [Vidal and Arda can’t play till January and won’t be sent out on loan] they’ve also lost Xavi, Pedro and Montoya. That’s 104 appearances and thirteen goals which can only be replaced by B-team guys and the now-fit Vermaelen. Piqué’s ban means he misses the first four matches. Luis Enrique squeezed every single drop of concentration, effort, intensity and talent from his squad – even hurdled a mini crisis when he went head-to-head with Leo Messi in early January. But can he repeat that?

Lionel Messi 2013

 

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Will Benitez have the same kind of in-squad help from anyone that ‘Lucho’ got from Xavi? [Correct answer: no] Thus, can Atleti sneak in and rob the family silver? If the market closes and they have kept Antoine Griezmann and he’s paired with Jackson Martínez and Luciano Vietto with El Niño Torres showing them what playing for the Colchoneros really means then … possibly.

What a league where it’s Messi-Suárez-Neymar v Bale, Benzema, Ronaldo v Griezmann-Jackson-Vietto! No three-club strikeforces in any country in the world will outscore that lot cumulatively. Atleti can’t be considered outright favourites. But dark horses? Yes.

  • Able to work in lower profile
  • Superb coach
  • Diego Godín settled and committed,
  • Two top keepers
  • Talent, youth and huge experience in midfield
  • A deep squad –
  • A winning mentality.

Last season, before they re-stocked, I worried this might be Atleti’s first trophy-less season since 2008/2009 [which other club around Europe can boast that astonishing record?] Not so sure now. Goalscoring? The eye is always drawn to the Messi v Ronaldo battle – barring injuries they should split the top two positions. But I think the gap will narrow.

Both Suárez and Neymar look capable of increasing their tallies [without misfortune the Uruguayan will have over two months extra via which to do that compared to last season] Messi is much more focussed on trophies than scoring records and, as such, might increase his ‘assist’ tally. Not a suggestion I’d make about CR7.

David Moyes

 

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Benítez wants Benzema to: ‘…break the 25 goal barrier’, while both Jackson Martínez and Griezmann have all the equipment to exceed 30 goals in all competitions. Who’d be a goalie?

I’m backing Athletic for the Copa [five Cup finals reached since 2009], Marco Asensio to be the stand-out ‘revelation’ of the season, Sporting and Betis to fight it out for fans of the season … but what of David Moyes and La Real?

Shorter on goals than Danny De Vito is on centimetres this is, finally, a squad and an XI which should be competitive. But things haven’t yet ‘clicked’. Bruma’s wing-pace, the goal potential of Carlos Vela and Jonathas, Pardo’s control of midfield organisation. Moyes made them work their socks off in pre-season. But La Real couldn’t score.

They’ll should be much more robust, much less likely to be powder-puff away from Anoeta. And if things do ‘click’ they’ll fight for a Europa League place. But as Samuel Eto’o once said: ‘Goals! They are like rats up a drainpipe if you chase after them – you’ve just got to wait and let them come in their own time. Right now, La Real could do with a rat-catcher.

Happy season punters.


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Graham Hunter: Don’t bet against Messi and this 12/1 shot in Saturday’s Champions League Final

Strip away all the back-stories: Buffon and Pirlo back in Berlin where they won the World Cup; Suárez facing a tense re-match with Evra and Chiellini; Xavi’s last game for Barcelona – and what you get is your core story – ‘Do you dare bet against Messi?’

Football, the ultimate team sport, is once again under his thumb.

Since January 4 this year Juve, as a squad, have scored 60 times in all three of their competitions.

Since January 4 Messi, alone, has scored 36 and given 14 goal assists – it’s completely remarkable.

Lionel Messi

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He ripped up the Copa del Rey final last weekend with two beautiful goals and a clever part in the third.

When the big games arrive – so does Lionel Andrés.

One of my early interviews with him was Autumn 2006 when he was admitting that it had been a flash of temper which made him refuse to go down to the pitch in Paris and celebrate with his team mates after Barça beat Arsenal in the Champions League final.

Not being named in the match squad by Frank Rijkaard had absolutely infuriated him.

He closed that subject with a:

God willing I’ll be back to lift that trophy a few times in the future.

Well, he’s had the opportunity twice and in both 2009 and 2011 he took that opportunity by scoring past Edwin Van Der Sar twice.

Not a bad record. (Ex Juventus keeper Van Der Sar was 38 when he first conceded to Messi in a Champions League final, Gigi Buffon is 37).

But add this context. Messi has played in 23 ‘final’ matches for Barcelona – 12 ‘one-off’ finals and 11 other ‘home-and-away’ finals. 23 matches … 20 Messi goals.

Of those 18 finals he’s only lost three.

Lionel Messi beats Xabo Alonso

And it might guide you to know that the only one-game finals Barcelona have lost with Messi in their side are the ones where he hasn’t scored – the 2006 Spanish Supercup and the Spanish Copa finals of 2011 and 2014.

Stop Messi and you have a chance – that’s the message.

During 2015 he’s shown his big-game mentality. Goals home and away against the reigning champions – Atlético. Goals in key matches against Valencia, Sevilla, Athletic and the Catalan derby with Espanyol plus a nifty assist for the first goal against Madrid in the Clásico.

Notwithstanding all that – IF you want to oppose him, oppose Barça then perhaps there’s a gentle hint.

He’s gone from having scored eight in six Champions League games during the 2014 group stage to having scored twice in six games in the 2015 knock-out matches.

Okay – he was just stunning despite not scoring in the home win over Manchester City

And the two he did get, plus an assist, were in the epic 3-0 semi-final win over Bayern.

But, figure it as you wish, there’s been a drop-off in him hitting the net in the Champions League this calendar year.

Champions League Final

So, how do you rate the test that lies in front of him?

He’s never played Juventus competitively, never played Italy either. Thus it is that despite he and Buffon having played well over 1500 competitive club and international matches between them they’ve never gone toe-to-toe.

Who wins – the good big one or the great little one? Lucky it’s not boxing.

Might Buffon (below) in any way intimidate Messi – it’s not so ludicrous?

Messi’s penalty misses tend to come against keepers he thinks loom large in the goal. Something he once told me about Abbiatti at Milan.

Gianluigi-Buffon

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Speaking of Milan, Messi’s faced the defensive strategies of Juve coach Maxi Allegri eight times in the Champions League when he’s been in charge of the Rossoneri. Eight times, eight goals.

Where else might there be some fun? I pointed out last week that Barcelona have just begun to drift a little from nearly an entire season of excellence defending set plays or the ball into the box from open play.

But conceding like that to Bayern, Deportivo La Coruña and now Athletic [Iñaki Williams] in the Copa final tends to indicate that this is where Juve will surely concentrate. Chiellini, Pogba, Vidal, Morata all look like goalscorer candidates.

Andrea-Pirlo-840

Of the two golden veterans, Pirlo (above) and Xavi, only the Italian is sure to start. But is Iniesta fully fit after his calf problem? Might Xavi get some game time? Probably, yes.

Pirlo scoring a direct free kick ain’t the daftest idea, Pirlo perhaps winning the MVP [if there’s a market on that] isn’t outright crazy.

Xavi said last week:

I adore watching Pirlo play, we’ve been facing each other for club and country since we were kids.

They’ll probably be playing together in Qatar from next season.

Xavi-840-x-500

So, Xavi? Well he has a remarkable record. Goal assists in each of the two Champions League finals in which he’s played. A goal assist in each of the two European Championship Finals in which he’s played.

A goal and a goal-assist in two of this three Copa Finals against Athletic Bilbao, a goal against Juventus the last time they faced each other, a goal assist in the World Cup semi final, a goal and an assist in the World Club Cup final.

If he’s on the pitch at any stage on Saturday night then you might want to back him as an anytime goalscorer.

This is quite possibly Barcelona’s tightest final since Sampdoria took them to extra-time in 1992.

I reckon both teams to score. Then either 2-1 Barcelona or 2-2 and penalties. But if Messi wants it, if Messi performs – don’t back against him. It’s that simple.

Graham’s best bets:

  • Both teams to score and Barcelona to win @13/5
  • Barcelona to win 2-1 @ 12/1. 

 

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