Graham Hunter’s La Liga Preview: Barca bounce back to form, Real run riot and a 12/1 shot

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Almería v Barcelona, Saturday 3pm

When Almería manager Fran Rico woke up on Thursday morning he got just about the best news possible.

No, not that Valencia and Sevilla were loaning them back Álvaro Negredo and Aleix Vidal so that the two ex-Almería strikers could get scoring practice against Barça but that the Catalan expedition had been stranded in Amsterdam over night thanks to a broken down plane.

Unlike the board, fans, journalists and players’ families, the team didn’t have to sleep in Schipol airport – being shipped off to a friendly hotel at about 2.20 am.

FRAN-TASTIC NEWS: The Almeria boss will have welcomed Barca’s midweek travel woes

But given the well-known post-Champions League malaise [big team plays midweek, slumps the next weekend] old Frankie Rich [Señor Rico] would have been rubbing his hands in glee.

Iniesta out, two Liga defeats on the trot, Mathieu struggling for fitness, ditto Luis Suárez re match-sharpness – now a broken plane and broken night’s sleep.

But well might he pray.

Barcelona’s functional hotel in down-town Almería is a business and convention centre [the glamour!] and that’s just what they’ll want at the Estadio Juegos Mediterráneos – taking care of business and sticking to convention.

Almería have never beaten Barcelona home or away – that’s the convention.

VERZA OUT OF TUNE: Almeria will need Verza to find his scoring touch to beat Barca

Last season the Andaluz team produced shocks – defeating Atlético, Valencia and Real Sociedad. But here’s the rub. Verza scored four goals across those three big scalp removals but he’s got just one this season.

Of Almería’s three other leading scorers last season, Rodri, Vidal and Oscar Díaz they are now scattered across 1860 Munich, Sevilla and Valladolid.

Defender Oscar Trujillo [Born Madrid 1987] promised to make the game: “Ugly and long” for Barcelona and Almería have been heavily practising corners [from which two of their eight goals have come this season] and free kicks as their main weapons on Saturday afternoon.

An early game after a tiring European trip against a team scrapping for survival and promising to make the game a bit Quasimodo might give you a hunch for Almería upsetting the odds.

But Barcelona showed a new attitude in Amsterdam, worked brutally hard and looked like a side which knew precisely where they’d gone wrong in the previous two matches.

Particularly the moving of Suárez to centre-forward, from right wing, made Barça look potent again. Messi’s movement and form was, suddenly, joyous. I think Luis Enrique’s side might tuck this one away – back Messi [a double], Rakitic and Suárez even if he gets one coming off the bench.

Almeria 14/1, Barcelona 1/5, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Liverpool v Chelsea MBS

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 7pm

This is where you have to feel a bit of sympathy for Paco Jémez. A year and a week ago these two clubs met, at the Vallecas, and it was a fabulous contest – 3-2 to Los Blancos. Carlo Ancelotti was so impressed with how Jemez’s team played – tactics, possession, attacking verve, pressing – that he got in touch with the former Spain centre-back and asked if he could come watch Rayo train one day. What an astonishing compliment. Spin it as you like but within a month Madrid were playing 4-3-3, thrilling with their intensity and en route to winning two trophies.

“We’ve got to applaud a team with such an enjoyable playing style” Ancelotti said Friday. “Rayo are a great example of what Spanish football stands for. “Despite fighting against relegation they play well and they play attackingly. “It’s a great thing, very, very positive”.

A RAYO OF INSPIRATION: Madrid’s minnows inspired Ancelotti last season

From that day to this Jemez has had to cope with losing 19 players, signing another 19 [they released or sold 13 in summer 2013 and signed 18 making it a gross turnaround of 71 players in two summers] yet still produce attractive, winning, tactically daring and technically admirable football. That he’ll one day be given charge of one of La Liga’s ‘grand’ clubs must now be a given.

For the moment, how does he cope with the world’s most in-form side?

Madrid-trained Alberto Bueno has a record of a goal every five games in La Primera and hasn’t scored for five so he might be worth a fiver anytime. Leo Baptistao is not only Rayo’s best player but suddenly in touch with the swagger and confidence he lost at parent club Atlético.

But when Los Blanco’s biggest test is how to re-incorporate the fit-again Gareth Bale then you can take it that a] this’ll be a cracker to watch and b] Madrid will hit three +

Rayo haven’t won at city neighbours Madrid since 1996 [their only away win in this fixture] and their scoring at the Bernabéu is a numerical palindrome – scored 15, conceded 51.

Bale will score, count on it, and backing Ronaldo may only be for dummies now given his mildly acceptable 17 goals in 9 league matches but, just for info, he’s got eight in six matches against Rayo.

Real Madrid 1/14, Rayo Vallecano 25/1, Draw 11/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 6pm

You’d forgive the Athletic players if they take garlic, lucky white heather, silver bullets, wooden stakes, kryptonite, rabbits feet and a bundle of three-leaved clovers [clovii?] to Valencia with them. It’s not that their away record to Los Che is utterly atrocious – just that the Mestalla has been a killing field for their dreams. They’d not been to any cup final for quarter of a century before the Copa Del Rey pitted them with Guardiola’s Barcelona at the Mestalla in 2009. One nil up became 4-1 down – heartbreak for the heart-bustingly proud and noisy Basque support.

VAL-HELLA: Bilbao have endured their fair share of heartbreak at the Mestalla

Aready massively disadvantaged by the loss of ex-Valencia star Aritz Aduriz, Athletic are in search of a lucky break. Aduriz has seven in all comps, without him Athletic have three goals in La Liga. Then when they were fighting for their Champions League lives in midweek a mole popped its head above ground just in time to nod the ball over keeper Gorka’s boot so that Yacine Brahimi could score into an open goal.

As for Valencia they’ve racked up the A-Z of wins. Total domination, wins from a 15 minute power play, wins when they are on the ropes… the sign of a happy, fit, well coached, well stocked team.

Their last three wins have all been by 3-1 [back that correct score again here at 12/1] with Pablo Piatti serving up six goals for team mates in those matches. Valencia have [including an Elche own goal] scored from six set plays in those three games. Shkodran Mustafi [a new German centre half] can’t stop scoring so if Mr Power is dozing this weekend, odds-wise, the stopper is worth a little tickle again at 25/1 as is Sofiane Feghouli who’s back in form. Time for a Paco Alcácer [in the Spain squad] goal too.

Valencia 8/13, Athletic Bilbao 9/2, Draw 14/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Atlético, Sunday 8pm

It’s not grim oop north as far as Atleti are concerned. They’ve scored eleven times while winning their last four visits to the Anoeta.

But, this time, it’s got to be an Antoine Griezmann story. Picked up as a hopeful French kid by Real Sociedad when he was nowt but a lad [13] he became far and away their most exciting, most prolific player of recent seasons bagging over a half century of goals … before Atleti came calling. It’s funny, he’d got goals against all La Real’s other major rivals – Athletic, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia. Just not Atlético. But they put a €24m bet on him and although Diego Simeone’s latest comment on him was that he needed to become a ‘more complete’ striker the kid is learning. Four goals in total, two last week in the win over Cordoba – he’d got to be a storybook banker to score on his return ‘home’. “I won’t celebrate if I do..”

TAKE A-NOETA: Real Sociedad’s one home win this season was against Real Madrd

Warning to the Spanish champions? La Real’s only home league win was against … the European champions and they gave them a two goal start.

As for the Basques, they’d like this to be the game before David Moyes takes over. They have a back up plan [Pepe Mel] but it’s the Scot they are determined to persuade. “That Jagoba Arrasate has been sacked is a disaster of our [the players’] making” commented captain Xabi Prieto. Presumably of the football director’s making too – selling Griezmann [sixteen goals last season] and buying Alfred Finnbogason [eight appearances and not a single goal yet]

Griezmann, Koke, Prieto and Raúl Garcia might feature on the ‘goal anytime’ menu for many this weekend.

Real Sociedad , Atlético Madrid, Draw – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter La Liga Preview: A potential 10/1 Real Madrid blank and goals all round between Barcelona and Valencia

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Málaga v Real Madrid. Saturday 7pm

I’m sure that there are many who have a punt based on superstition, hunches – call it what you will. If you are one of that relentlessly intuitive band of gamblers then you’ll have a cheeky wee fiver on Real Madrid not scoring at Málaga on Saturday at 10/1.

Reason? Carlo Ancelotti’s team has won fifteen straight matches in La Liga, the Champions and Copa del Rey and in doing so they’ve equalled the all-time record throughout Real Madrid’s history.

It’s only happened twice before – under the great Miguel Muñoz in 1960/61 during the Di Stefano, Puskas, Gento era when Los Blancos won five straight European Cups, and under Jose Mourinho in 2011/12.

The Muñoz team had just been knocked out of ‘their’ European Cup by Barcelona and took it out on Liga opponents. Fifteen straight wins. Fifty seven goals in the process.

The Mourinho team ended their run via a 1-3 home defeat to Barça but prior to that won five Champions League matches and ten Liga matches on the trot. Hold on…. fifty seven goals in the process.

THAT’s YOUR LOTTI: Will Real Madrid’s 15 game winning streak come to an end this Saturday? (pic: Inpho)

No, you’ll never believe it. Ancelotti’s fifteen wins on the bounce have yielded … go on, guess. Yes, fifty seven goals.

So if you believe in momentum and the power of a tremendously confident squad led by the irrepressible Cristiano Ronaldo then it’s money on Madrid to win at the Rosaleda and make all-time history.

But if you’re hung-up on signs and numerical patterns then Madrid have won their fifteen games, scored their 57 goals and .. that’s their lot.

A little more help you say? Málaga are sixth, close enough to the pack that if they’d won at Atlético at the weekend they’d have gone fourth equal. Madrid looked laboured for the first time in weeks while winning 1-0 at Basel midweek. Toni Kroos admits: “I’m tired” This should be their first firm test of playing without the injured Luka Modric against a team which knows how to stretch their midfield if they aren’t positionally shrewd. However perhaps the most persuasive factor is that Málaga can’t really afford to have one, never mind three, influential players missing. Amrabat and Juanmi [goals disappearing out the window] are both out injured while in midfield their natty little organiser, Camacho, is suspended.

Last week’s red for Samuel García has been rescinded … but is that really enough to balance out the losses? No, probably
not. Perm from Bale, Ronaldo and Isco, returning to his home ground, to see Madrid through.

PS, for anyone who hasn’t lumped on the league title yet each of the previous 15 game winning runs ended with Madrid winning the title. Hint, hint.

Malaga 8/1, Draw 4/1, Real Madrid 1/3 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Deportivo La Coruña. Sunday 11am

These midday kick-offs are a relative novelty in Spain – a football nation just waking up to the fact that there may, just may, be a reason why the Premier League, with less skill and flair, is economically dominant around the world. Now, key markets [Asia, the Gulf] will watch this game in their afternoon rather than [via Spain’s horrible 9pm Sunday kick-off] in the middle of the night.

There’s a knack to playing these early matches and that’s for Atlético that’s to eat Depo for breakfast.

The champions haven’t lost at home for 26 games [twenty wins, six draws] and it’s over a decade since Depo last took a point at the Calderón on a day when Diego Simeone was on the bench, but as a 75th minute sub rather than as boss.

Also on the same bench that day was Toché – now 31, now playing for Depo and currently their equal top scorer with two. Which tells you just about all that’s needed. Depo have four goals on the road [six games] and twelve all season. Meanwhile during Atlético’s last seven home games they’ve won the lot, scored 23 times and looked increasingly powerful. During that run Mandzukic has five, Griezmann four, Raúl García three, Koke two and Godín two. Cholo Simeone’s reign has been defined by his team winning games like this when Madrid and Barcelona are away from home and there’s just the sniff of an opportunity to close the gap at the top. Take your pick [Griezmann], but back the champs.

Atlético 1/6, Draw 6/1, Deportivo 16/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Valencia v Barcelona. Sunday 8pm

There’s no getting around the fact that, traditionally, this is Apache territory for Barça. Across their decorated history they’ve lost to Valencia at the Mestalla in: the 1961 Inter City Fairs Cup final first leg 6-2; the 1980 Cup Winners Cup quarter final first leg 4-3; the 1999 Spanish Supercup second leg 1-0; the 2000 Champions League Semi Final first leg 4-1, the 2008 Copa Del Rey semi final 3-2. Major defeats. But it was nearly as seismic last season at the Camp Nou when Valencia won 3-2 – three points which if Barcelona had taken, it now transpires, they’d have won the title.

The deduction is that despite Barcelona’s nine goals in their last two games and Valencia’s derby defeat to Levante last week there’s no way that an away win is a ‘gimme’.

Luis Enrique’s team appear to have found their best form of the season, or at least their most clinical finishing. Turgid in the first half against Sevilla last week they erupted via Leo Messi’s record-breaking second half and then trampled all over APOEL in Cyprus. But their manager has a disturbing unwillingness to play the same XI consistently, often changing the midfield and back four.

For Barça two key figures are Gerard Piqué and Messi. The latter has two hat tricks in two matches and appears both electric-quick and happy in his football. The former has put together three games, for Spain v Germany, and the last two club wins, where he’s played with confidence, form and passed the ball superbly.

Perhaps for Valencia it’s Diego Alves and Álvaro ‘the Beast’ Negredo. The keeper reserves his very best form for Barça – I’ve seen him make umpteen indescribably good saves in games where he stands between the Catalans and a humiliation for his side. Negredo scored his last goal in Spanish football against Barcelona [2-0 ahead, 3-2 defeat with Sevilla] and knocked the Blaugrana out of the cup with a goal and an assist for the Andalucians in 2010.

The most intriguing game of the weekend, both teams will score, Negredo will get off the mark, Messi will get another couple, Valencia have the capacity to win but Barcelona’s extraordinary goal power suggests they’ll do no worse than a score draw and quite possibly win 3-2.

Valencia 9/2, Draw 16/5, Barcelona 4/7 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Granada. Sunday 4pm

The theme here is: ‘define crisis?’. After their defeat in Holland to Feyenoord on Thursday Sevilla, by their demanding standards, feel like they are in free-fall. They’ve won just once in five matches, tumbling from top equal with Barcelona on Matchday 9, to fifth and seven points off leaders Madrid today. In the Europa League if they lose their last group game [at home] to HNK Rijeka the holders will be eliminated.

At which point Granada can assume their Monty Python ‘Four Yorkshiremen’ personality and sneer: ‘That’s nothing! You’ve got it easy … we’d lick the sweat off a tramp’s socks to have it that good’.

Joaquín Caparrós’ team has scored just twice since September and, in fact, seven la Liga players have scored more than Granada’s entire squad this season. No, not just Messi and Ronaldo but guys like Celta’s Larrivey and Sunday afternoon’s threat – Carlos Bacca.

To add to the woes both Riki and Rochina are out injured, further damaging Caparrós’ ability to return to the club he did so much to ‘grow’, and register a needed win. Sevilla have to marshall energy quickly after their defeat in Rotterdam.

Granada’s main problem is their striker El-Arabi who hit twenty goals over the previous two seasons but just one this. Perhaps it’s his moment? For Sevilla Kevin Gameiro’s return isn’t yet yielding the goals he’s due so the responsibility falls squarely on Bacca.

Sevilla 4/9, Draw 10/3, Granada 13/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: A 40/1 La Liga accumulator that could fund your 12 pubs of Christmas

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Elche v Atlético Saturday 3pm

Like the seasick passenger on a cruise liner who has accidentally swallowed too many laxatives, Elche are in trouble at both ends.

Their 27 goals conceded make them the second most defensively incontinent side in La Liga – and they’ve only scored 12 times in 13 matches.

At the Martínez Valero, where they are La Liga’s ninth best supported club with an average of over 22,000 fans turning up to back them, it’s been torture – in six home matches this season they’ve only led once.

But there’s a stand-out. Up front they have the physically imposing, terrifically quick Jonathas.

El gol de Jonathas logra que se repartan los puntos… #elchecf #cordobacf #franjiverdes pic.twitter.com/uuxoa6gsDt

— Claudia Ropero (@ClaudiaRopero) November 24, 2014

He’ll be 26 in March and perhaps at this age he’s not going to be absolutely top, top class. But the Brazilian is a handful and to score six in 12 in this team [three in his last two home games] is no small achievement.

Coach Fran Escribá doesn’t need the added problem of one of his other stand-out players, David Lombán, suffering family problems which have prevented him training this week and hint that he might not play against the champions. A full-on competitor at centre-half he’s also author of a couple of Elche’s other goals.

Tipped Griezmann to get us a goal last weekend but he saved it until the midweek Copa win over Hospitalet – merci pour rien mon brave!

That said, his form is good and his only Liga hat-trick so far was for Real Sociedad against Elche last season. A pair of 2-0 wins for Atleti against this mob while winning the title, a couple of penalties awarded to them in those games – a win, a two-goal margin and, in all likelihood, another successful set-piece for Cholo Simeone’s team this weekend (Atleti -1.0 at 17/10).

Match betting >

Real Madrid v Celta Saturday 7pm

Perhaps this is where we get another hint about who’ll win the title. The Galicians have taken a draw and a win away from visits to Atlético and Barcelona already this season – but profile as much, much longer odds to escape without a doing here.

Okay, before I get bullish here’s the cautionary note. Of Celta’s last seven league visits to the daunting Bernabéu [admittedly dating back to 2001] they’ve only lost three. The other results include 1-2 and 2-3 wins plus a pair of 1-1 draws. Moreover, coached by Luis Enrique,

Celta beat los Blancos 2-0 up at the Balaidos last season in a result which confirmed that Madrid couldn’t win the title, thus robbing them of the first treble in their history. Put all of those factors together and no way Celta look like mugs here. But they are in the middle of a vertigo attack, poor dears.

Having won 1-0 at the Camp Nou on the first day of November they’ve not scored a league goal since, they’ve taken a single point, against lowly Granada, losing to Rayo and Eibar. It was Toto Berizzo’s front three which was separating Celta from the pack – at least while they were scoring. Nolito hasn’t got one since mid October, Joaquin Larrivey hasn’t scored since that Camp Nou goal and Fabián Orellana is the most culpable.

This assist from Javier Hernandez last night is blindingly good…https://t.co/xQjIF32LeL — Alex Richards (@AA_Richards) December 3, 2014

No net-bulging since mid September. Albeit using an experimental XI, that run of form hit its logical conclusion in the cup this week with a poor defeat away to second division leaders Las Palmas.

The front-of-house picture for Madrid is that they have just made history with 16 straight wins, everyone’s teeth are white and shiny like a US chat-show host and if you ask them nicely they’ll probably lend you a fiver till next weekend.

Away from the surface-glare the play has shaded just a touch.

Toni Kroos (above, for Germany) was rested for the cup game and won’t play midweek against Ludogorets because his systems are on overload [aka knackered] – Luka Modric is gonna be missed.

But it’s very hard to see beyond a three goal win for Madrid (-3.0 at around 6/4), more booty for James and Ronaldo and perhaps a little something for Chicharito (5/1 first goalscorer) whose game time is limited but whose form is sparkling.

Madrid have appealed Isco’s second yellow at Málaga last weekend. If rescinded he starts in a James-Kroos-Isco midfield. If not it’ll read James-Illarramendi-Kroos

NB: Ref Undiano has sent Ramos off three times in his career.

Match betting >

Rayo v Sevilla Sunday 12pm

That Sevilla don’t particularly like the Vallecas visit and might lose here is established – five defeats, two draws and just two wins since 1993.

However things have slightly fallen into their laps in terms of the build-up to what could be a stand-out game for attractive football.

Unai Emery’s side have Bob Beamon-ed their way out of a mini crisis with 10 goals in their last two wins.

Ahead of this testing trip to Madrid their last league game was over 24 hours earlier than Rayo’s [Sunday afternoon compared to Monday night] and at home to Granada rather than away in Almeria.

Then their Copa del Rey win over Sabadell was Wednesday, not

Thursday unlike Rayo who lost at home, 1-2, to Valencia.

It all meant that from Sunday evening onwards key figures like Carlos Bacca, Beto, Stéphene M’Bia, Dani Carriço, Nico Pareja, Éver Banega, Aleix Vidal and Vitolo could mix time-off with recuperative training and miss the 5-1 win over Sabadell.

How much faith do you put in that?

Los máximos goleadores de ambos clubes son Leo Baptistao con 6 goles y por parte del almeria Edgar con dos goles. pic.twitter.com/D9eRDuKZpb

— Rayo Vallecano (@BollRayo) December 1, 2014

Don’t forget that because of the Uefa Supercup and Europa League guys like Carriço, Bacca and Pareja have 1700, 1400 and 1300 minutes game-time respectively this season.

Throw in the travel time involved in Europe and that’s a significant difference to Rayo’s most used player, Tito, with 1142 Liga minutes, star strikers Baptistão (above) or Bueno with 944 and 966 respectively.

Sevilla have scored the same number of goals as Rayo have conceded, 24 and in the 26 Liga matches the sides have played this season there’ve only been four draws. In theory it should favour Sevilla. It’s 14 games since they drew an away match – all wins or defeats.

Emery likes counter-attack, his team is confident and in-form and unless they leave their cojones behind them, and wilt, there’s the chance of a rare there points here for them. Even if they have to win it late on, should Rayo wilt.

Match betting >

Barcelona v Espanyol Sunday 4pm

Even if you pay intermittent attention to Spanish football you’ll know of Luis ‘Lucho’ Enrique. He crossed the divide from Madrid to Barça, played for Bobby Robson, won copious amounts of trophies and matured into a Camp Nou great. But Sergio González?

I’d wager you might struggle with the Espanyol coach. Until I remind you that with Super-Depor he won at Arsenal, scored in a win at Old Trafford, beat Bayern Munich home and away, beat Juventus, thrashed European Champions AC Milan 4-0 and scored in the 2002 Copa Del Rey final defeat of Real Madrid. At the Bernabéu. On the 100th anniversary of Madrid’s foundation.

Barcelona’s 1-0 win over Valencia was a fair result, according to coach Luis Enrique. pic.twitter.com/h2cGbmkrje

— Purely Football (@PurelyFootball) December 1, 2014

As a side note, he scored, too, on his Espanyol-Barcelona derby debut back in April 1998 when [as on many occasions] he was up against Luis Enrique.

Does any of that influence who’ll win on Sunday? No, but allow a man to set the scene.

Lucho and Sergio represent precisely what this Derby-lite lacks.

The city doesn’t shudder to a stop as in Madrid, Milan, Manchester, Liverpool.

At the Camp Nou there will be a mere trickle of away fans. Next to no noise – even should they win.

But, regularly, there’s intensity bordering on nastiness on the pitch, and the two coaches represent ‘this is my club’ spirit – the types for whom there’s a significant ‘edge’ to a game like this. If the fans felt the same way about it we’d have a spectacle on our hands.

Right now Barcelona are Jekyll and Hyde. Stormingly good in much of their attacking play at Ajax and Apoel, dozy in the first half against Sevilla then devastating thereafter. Then dopy and slower than sludge for 80 minutes last week against Valencia only to grimly keep plugging away until they hit an added time winner.

It’s worth paying attention to the fact that not since Mauricio Pochettino took last-placed Espanyol to the Camp Nou during Pep Guardiola’s treble-season and won 1-2 in February 2009 have Los Periquitos even scored on a visit to Barça.

The plain fact is that Sergio doesn’t have a single player, with the possible exception of the excellent Sergio Garcia, of his class and sustained excellence.

It’s hard not to back Leo Messi, six goals and an assist in his last three games, and hard to explain why Luis Suárez’s form went backwards last weekend after he’d broken his duck in Cyprus.

Those who admire the Uruguayan will bet on him making Espanyol pay. Andrés Iniesta is back, looking in decent form, which isn’t necessarily a hint he’ll score but definitely a supply of better ammunition for Neymar, Messi and co. Barcelona by three (at about 7/4).

Match betting >

Atletico -1.0 (17/10)
Barcelona -3.0 (7/4)
Sevilla to win (6/5)
Real Madrid -3.0 (6/4)

La Liga betting coupon >

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Graham Hunter: This 34/1 La Liga treble should draw a crowd while Alfie can make Moyes merry at 6/1

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

If the world were spinning correctly on its axis then there’d be more cheers and fierce booing before this match than anything during it – no matter how many goals Messi scores, or if Cordoba happen to produce the shock of all shocks in Saturday’s 3pm clash with Barcelona.

The reasons come in the shape of the Cordoba coach and their President.

WDW& BTTS All matches

Miroslav Dukić was a no-nonsense central defender for Deportivo La Coruña back in 1993/4 – a time when Super-Depor had led La Liga for 23 straight weeks, right up to the final weekend of football.

Depor were at home to Valencia, Barcelona, their pursuers, at home to Sevilla. So long as Depor matched Barça’s result they were guaranteed champions.

Johan Cruyff’s Dream Team thrashed Sevilla 5-2 and until the 89th minute in the Riazor Depor were tied 0-0 against Gaizka Mendieta’s Valencia. Then, penalty Depor. Bebeto ducked responsibility, Dukić stepped up … the Camp Nou froze while transistor radios were pressed to thousands of ears – and the penalty was saved.

A fourth straight Spanish title for Cruyff’s Dream Team. Surely Dukić is owed the [ironic] honour of being applauded out on to the Camp Nou?

Barcelona-800

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What of Cordoba President Carlos González?

Well in the Dream Team that day, at right back, was one Albert Ferrer – Olympic Gold medallist, European Cup winner at Wembley and, thanks to Dukić, newly champion of Spain again.

Last summer he took Cordoba up to Spain’s Primera Division for the first time in 42 years, he was given about eight games to prove himself and then González, the coward, wouldn’t even face him when he sacked him, sending ‘Chapi’ Ferrer a text saying how ashamed he was of his actions that he couldn’t bear to see him. If that doesn’t deserve a hostile reception at Chapi’s spiritual home, I don’t know what does.

Neymar is fit again, and should start, while Luis Enrique expects ‘more of the same’. ”

We’ve prepared for a typical game – a rival who shuts up shop at the back and tries to cause problems on the counter. If there’s anything we are accustomed to – it’s that.

Most of Barça’s stars have had a week off, they average four goals every home game and there’s nothing to suggest that this should be hugely different.

David Moyes

Levante v Real Sociedad, Saturday, 5pm

David Moyes is learning as he goes in his new country and while he learned something nice this week, that Alfie Finnbogason CAN actually still score goals, there was something altogether less pleasant for him to assimilate when it came to surveying the Levante game on Saturday at 5pm..

La Real’s away form has been horrible for many, many months. They seem to lack the physical stamina, the concentration and worst of all the belief to consistently pick up good results on the road.

But Levante is a case apart. Not only have the Basques NEVER beaten little Levante in Spain’s top division, in five of their last seven meetings La Real have taken the lead only to go on and either draw or lose. Savage stuff.

Moyes the Merrier

It looks likely that Carlos Vela won’t make it because of a muscle strain and there are seven more of Moyes’ squad who are fitness doubts.

Perhaps there’s a blessing in disguise. He’s filtered a variety of ‘kids’ into his last few matches and to absolutely no ill-effect.

Finnbogason’s two goals in the Cup victory over Oviedo means he’s a striker with some confidence again and worth following (6/1 for first goalscorer) in that he has at least got himself into something like six or seven scoring positions in the last two matches.

Chory Castro should make the game and is in form, Iñigo Martínez [despite missing a sitter v Athletic] threatens from set-pieces while for Levante their burly Brazilian striker, Rafa Martins, who’s taken a Finnbogason-length of time to score, is now looking fit, quick and dangerous whether as a starter or sub.

Hard to have faith in La Real on the road but if they go one up this time, have a punt on them not losing this time.

Nuno Espirito Santo 840

Eibar v Valencia, Saturday, 7pm

One way in which this new, voracious Valencia give you a bit of joy is that only once in their last seven away matches have they failed to score. They are ‘in’ almost every game, combative, buzzing with menace and self-belief despite being newly constructed and brimful of youth.

Maybe that’s part of the explanation for their record of four red cards already this season. For that reason André Gomes [potentially their most impressive addition this season] will be missing from midfield in the Basque country in this tiny [literally] stadium which is directly in proportion with the tiny [27,000 inhabitants] town, whose inhabitants have never enjoyed Primera football before.

Sent off last week against Rayo, the last time Gomes missed a game it was, just to round the argument off nicely, the only time in the last seven away matches when Valencia failed to score. In fact that week they went from having thrashed Atlético at home to losing, limply, at Deportivo la Coruña. Gomes is on five bookings so he’ll miss the next match too while both Gayá and Javi Fuego are one yellow off suspension. Does or doesn’t that influence how forcefully they play? I always wonder.

BEST MOVE – #VCFrayo http://t.co/6M7hg9kNrl

— Valencia CF (@valenciacf) December 14, 2014

Their ref here is Carlos Velasco Carballo who HATES a red card. Ninety eight of them in 191 Liga matches says to me an average of a sending off just about every second game.

Just one in eight matches this season so the law of averages is screaming at him right now. ‘Off, OFF. OFF!’ What to make of Eibar. Not only do they sit ninth, better than any other promoted side across all of Europe’s major leagues, they hit five goals in their last home game and are off the back of a superb away draw to Sevilla.

They ain’t to be taken lightly. Although Mikel Arruabarrena is top scorer with just four, Gaizka Garitano’s side have shared their 19 goals across eleven different scorers including Saúl Berjón who’s an emerging gem of a forward.

Neither Feghouli (9/1) nor Piatti (13/2) are prolific for Valencia but they give the width the pace and both are nice side-bets for an unexpected goal if you fancy moving away from the market-leaders like the Rodrigos or Negredo.

simeone_840

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Sunday, 8pm

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Athletic have a reliance on Aritz Aduriz akin to dolphins and water, human beings and oxygen or Piers Morgan and cheap publicity. Complete. So to see the striker return from injury for the Basque derby last weekend but then be used [instead of rested] for the last 13 minutes of Athletic’s squeaky-bum Cup tie against third division Alcoyano on Thursday night tells you a) how worried coach Valverde was about going out and b) how little he trusts Los Leones’ other striking alternatives. What little Alcoyano knew was that meanwhile Athletic find it harder to score than North Korea does to keep its nose out of other people’s business they had a right chance. Valverde admitted:

We were sluggish up front. To get through we had to grit our teeth and hang on to the single goal lead.

Not a great advert.

@Juanfrantorres @diegogodin @MarioSuarez4 o lo de ayer o esto,de vosotros tb depende #SinElFrenteNoEsLoMismo pic.twitter.com/xr01Dei5Np

— chus (@chus1903) December 15, 2014

Athletic, once fearsome at the new San Mames, have lost at home three times this season already and needlessly dropped other points to draws. They’ll be without Iturraspe in midfield and Laporte at centre back against Atlético, both suspended.

This fixture has a wonderful rhythm to it. Going back years and years if one team wins it’s home game the other will reverse that next time they meet. Better still, if, say, Atleti win in Bilbao, Athletic will win in Madrid next time they meet and vice versa. The original tit for tat. Everyone wants to be tat.

Diego Simeone has some choices to make. Losing at home to Villarreal last week [much against my expectation] his team looked massively tired, with Diego Godin wading through concrete when the scorer, Vietto, gamboled by him.

Then they lost two goals at home to Hospitalet in the Cup. Something’s not right.

On balance the fact that Atleti score and Athletic struggle to do so suggests there’s a risk of an away win here. That’s something they achieved last season [1-2] despite Athletic leading. San Jose is a goal threat for Athletic at set pieces, Borja Viguera is beginning to find his feet. Antoine Griezmann must get his chance to start and if he does he needs to impress his boss with a goal. Atletico need to figure that they can’t give Real Madrid another present while the league leaders [try to] become world champions in Morocco.

Expect the Basque pride to rouse Athletic and the Spanish champions will need one heck of a better pace and intensity than they’ve been capable of recently in order to better a score draw.

Acca Bonus

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Graham Hunter: How a Barca comeback could bag you a 19/1 winner in this week’s La Liga preview

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Valencia v Real Madrid – Sunday 4pm

Although you have to be a bit careful with your pronunciation, it’s an inescapable truth that football loves a bit of rancour.

Games with an ‘edge’, ‘bad blood’. Grudges.

Even though the last three Valencia Priméra División titles were won by coaches who were Real Madrid ‘purebloods’ (Alfredo di Stéfano in 1970/71 plus Rafa Benítez in 2001/2 and 2003/4) the animosity felt by Los Che towards Los Blancos has pushed this clash into the bronze medal position behind the Madrid derby and El Clásico. In terms of rancour.

Mestalla Stadium

Aside from two big clubs locking antlers every rutting season the special spice actually stems from the contentious move of Predrag Mijatovic from the Mestalla to Madrid as far back as 1996.

Valencia’s player of the season with 28 goals, and within a few months of becoming runner-up in the Ballon D’Or, he bought himself out of his [1,250 million peseta] contract and moved to the Bernabéu. Title first year, winning goal in the Champions League final the following. Cue increasing Valencian bitterness.

And football fans nurture grudges, keep them warm, hand them down to following generations.

Which is partly why there’s been a big internal debate at Los Che as to whether Madrid should or shouldn’t be given a guard of honour as they run out at the Mestalla on Sunday evening having made themselves World Club champions with their last game of 2014.

Valencia have a code – if their opponents have won the title, the Copa Del Rey or the Champions League they get applauded on to the pitch by Valencia’s players. The temptation, given that the World Club cup isn’t mentioned, was to set a hostile, ‘We’re Valencia, who the hell are you…?’ tone to the match.

Enzo Perez

The home side just spent their equal highest transfer fee to finally buy Enzo Pérez from Benfica [greeted by 8000 fans] and he’ll replace Javi Fuego in midfield.

Just to add to the match’s ‘bite’ it was Valencia’s 2-2 draw at Madrid last May which significantly helped cost Carlo Ancelotti’s mob the title.

For those who treasure numbers more than words six of the last seven of these Liga meetings at the Mestalla have resulted in five or more goals – 35 of them in total. Significantly, the only game in that run which did NOT yield five or more was the last time Valencia beat Madrid at home, 3-0 in 2009 thanks to the impact of Juan Mata, David Silva and David Villa.

Gareth Bale

Ronaldo, of course, and Benzema enjoy scoring against Valencia but if you want to look elsewhere Gareth Bale notched the goal of his career to win the Cup here last season, Isco was trained-up as a kid at the Mestalla but has never scored a Liga goal there while Álvaro Negredo was trained at Madrid and has three wins and four goals in 12 meetings with them since. At stake is Madrid’s run of 22 competitive matches unbeaten plus Liga leadership. Only four, not five, goals this time – and shared too!

Hunter’s Punt:

Gareth Bale to score anytime – evens

Valencia 5/1, Real Madrid 8/15, Draw 3/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Real Sociedad v Barcelona – Sunday 8pm

So, imagine the scenario. Barça goes out for a right good bevvy with the lads on Hogmanay to celebrate the end of a damn awful 2014.

It’s good but wild and on New Year’s day heads are heavy, coffee is needed and there is talk of ‘hair of the dog’. Then Mrs Barça shrieks down the stairs ‘don’t forget you’ve got a game on Sunday’.

‘Who the bloody hell against?’ roars the hungover Barça from the sofa, ‘Just tell me it’s NOT Real Sociedad away … is it? ‘Please don’t let it be them …’

Think of this: across the decades Barcelona have been one of the world’s great clubs, consistently powerful. Yet only twice since the mid 1950’s have they won consecutive matches in San Sebastian.

Anoeta Stadium

No matter the gulf between the sides Real Sociedad somehow consistently come up with wins and draws. The last fifty years have seen only 12 away wins in 52 visits compared to twenty defeats and twenty draws. Indeed they’ve lost three and drawn the other in their last four Anoeta nightmares.

For those who’d like to think of another of those it may interest that neither Neymar nor Messi returned to training until Friday [with Luis Enrique’s permission] which would often be not soon enough to start. Perhaps the Barça coach views that subject totally differently. Equally, while La Real look beatable if Barcelona are on form it’s a stark fact that the Txuri-Urdin have beaten both Real Madrid and Atlético with high-octane performances already this season. The post-break training sessions have seen both Mikel González and Imanol Agirretxe back at work with the group but most attention will centre on whether Carlos Vela is fit to start [80/20].

David Moyes

This has the air of a Jack Spratt and his wife type of match. One of them could eat no fat, the other no lean. Barcelona consistently spend 45-60 minutes looking dull and sluggish in matches then [often] roar away with them or get late winners. On the other hand La Real don’t seem to have massive stamina and regularly start more brightly and then see opponents finishing with a flourish. Tempting to think of the match going lose-win for Barcelona in terms of half-time/full-time.

Hunter’s Punt:

Half-time/Full-time:: Real Sociedad/Barcelona – 19/1

A vital, vital match for the Blaugrana. Should they continue their recent habit of losing here and Madrid win at Valencia then Barça would probably be, at best, one more defeat away from kissing goodbye to the title. In January. Tempting to perm between Luis Suárez, Pedro, Messi [only three of his fifteen league goals away from home and no away goals since week 7 at Rayo], Alfie Finnbogason, Vela and Zurutuza for the goals. Over to ‘Mister’ Moyes.

Real Sociedad 7/1, Barcelona 1/3, Draw 9/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético v Levante – Saturday 3pm

Start the year by backing the champions to settle an old score.

Last May Levante kick-started the ‘just as well we’re wearing brown shorts anyway’ sequence of the La Liga run-in for Diego Simeone’s champions-elect with a 2-0 win – a sequence which saw Atleti squeak home despite only winning two of the last nine points on offer.

simeone_840

That defeat was in Valencia but even the equivalent of this match last season was only a well-contested 3-2 win for Los Colchoneros, causing Simeone to say on Friday:

“Levante are a tough bunch who know exactly how they want to try and play. “It’s a hard test for us and I expect a full, noisy stadium to try and inspire us.”

Stadium-noise and raucous support are usually to be taken for granted at the Calderón – there was a genuine ’12th man’ effect during the title win. But since the hooligan violence before the Depor match and efforts to squeeze the ‘Frente Atlético’ Ultras out there has been a seeping away of atmosphere, almost a divisive feel to the general mood. Perhaps New Year-old sentiments is what the manager most wants.

That, alongside the form they showed last time out in the second half away to Athletic when they hammered the Basques thanks to a Griezmann hat-trick [he’s zero for nine in matches against Levante in his career]. Mario Mandzukic and Koke both return from suspension but Miranda’s not fit and Fernando Torres doesn’t make this squad [paperwork]. Atleti keep on scoring from dead-ball situations so perhaps picking one of them for a first-goal isn’t a bad thought. “Atleti are intimidating at set-plays” admitted Levante coach Lucas Alcaraz before the match.

Gabi

As to the chances of a Gabi goal let’s just tell this straight as a die. Both he and Arda are at risk of missing next week’s huge match at the Camp Nou – a booking and they are suspended. Gabi is also one of 41 charged with fixing a match against Levante back in 2011, a match which saved his team, Zaragoza, from relegation thanks to Gabi’s two goals in a 1-2 win. Streetwise to leave him out for this one against Levante then? Perhaps … but would that be typical of the chin-out, ‘no-one pushes me around’ Cholo Simeone?

Perhaps it’s worth nothing that Levante have never won at the Calderón on league duty and they are third lowest scorers in La Liga, boasting the fine record of having failed to score in eight of their matches. David Navarro is suspended so 38 year-old Juanfran, sent off in this fixture last season, returns. Atleti lost their last home game of 2014. Unthinkable that they don’t put on a show and win by two clear here.

Hunter’s Punt:

Atletico Madrid -1 goal – 4/7

Atletico 1/5, Levante 12/1, Draw 11/2 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Sevilla v Celta – Saturday 5pm

If you are perverse, if you hate the ‘obvious’ then this profiles as a guaranteed away win. Sevilla are Spain’s only team to get this far in the season unbeaten at home. The reigning Europa League champions haven’t lost at the Sanchez Pizjuan for sixteen matches. Celta, on the other hand, haven’t scored in the league for 575 minutes, losing all but one of their matches since the first day of November. Adding nicely to that stat is the fact that Nolito and Larrivey, authors of 12 of Celta’s 17 Liga goals thus far, are both suspended for this match.

Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan

So, there you have it. How can Celta possibly lose?

In fact since the Galicians returned to the Primera they’ve three wins and just one defeat to their higher-profile, more successful rivals.

To judge Sevilla’s readiness you’ll have to decide whether you’re a cup half-full/cup half-empty type of punter. Do they have the greatest chance of cobwebs given that they last played on December 14 because their match against Madrid was postponed? Or are they likely to be sharper, rested and fine-tuned, having been back in training since Boxing Day?

A special match for two diehard Celta fans in the Sevilla ranks, Denis Suárez and Iago Aspas, so football history suggests you back one of them for an ‘any-time’ goal. Back from injury, Charles should start up front for the visitors, Fabián Orellana gets the odd goal but for the romantics Borja Iglesias, prodigious in the youth team, debuts in the first team squad and if there’s to be a surprise it’d be kinda cool if he produced it. Form says home win though, perhaps 3-1.

Hunter’s Punt:

Sevilla to win 3-1 – 12/1

Sevilla 4/6, Celta Vigo 4/1, Draw 11/4 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

Posted on January 18, 2015 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet.

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Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

@Teseo9Javi Welcome to home @MalagaCF pic.twitter.com/rQ0u81IhZr

— Álvaro Fdez Ortega (@ertottimlg) January 5, 2015

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Nuno Espírito Santo respeta al Celta ▶ http://t.co/KSut7kapF3 pic.twitter.com/CANXIW94bB

— AS (@diarioas) January 9, 2015

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Joaquín Larrivey se perderá dos partidos de Liga y dos de Copa http://t.co/oxFX5ix3Ya #Comunio pic.twitter.com/Zh5egJeSZ3

— ComunioES Noticias (@EScomunio) December 29, 2014

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

681x94_cashout_accas

Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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Make your Saturday night Messi with Graham Hunter’s La Liga acca

Posted on March 3, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Atletico Madrid v Real Valladolid

Saturday, 15.00

Some might be tempted to follow the creaks in the Atletico system over the last three games and try to identify a San Andreas Fault. I’d say that’s wrong.

Raul Garcia

Defeats to Real Madrid and Almeria were hugely embarrassing and a dramatic swing away from their robust, hard-to-beat form of the last two seasons. But the likely return of Thibaut Courtois in goal and Diego Costa returning from suspension are hugely influential. Equally, Raul Garcia (above) playing second striker, as he’s likely to do, rescues him from a much less comfortable area of operation – wide on the flank, which he’s not been enjoying. There are injuries, tension (with the Milan Champions League tie almost upon them) but oodles of character, tenacity and scoring potential to bank on. Atletico Madrid to win.

Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano

Saturday,19.00

While it’s feasible that Paco Jemez’s tremendous, ‘bold’ proposition in terms of front foot play home and away, ball possession and buccaneer spirit might well get them a goal or two it’s not easy to see beyond Barcelona winning and scoring three or four. Messi is a split second or two faster over the last couple of games than he’s been since returning and that’s led to a splurge of goals.

Messi 2013 Ballon D'or

Perhaps even more importantly Andres Iniesta is not only restored to midfield but looking fresh and able to ‘boss’ things. Pedro and Alexis, too, look sharp, sharp. Entertainment, yes. Some thrills, yes. But a two-goal win and a goal total to make this a game worth watching. Barca to win (by two goals if you fancy this bet).

Levante v Almeria

Saturday,17.00

Two things seem to scream out about this fixture. One, it profiles as a lovable chance of a score draw and two – if Levante get their noses in front they’ll present Almeria with a tough uphill battle.

Joaquin Caparros

There’s little to choose between these sides in terms of goalscoring, quality and if anything the absolutely superb boost in morale for the Andalucians in defeating a docile Atletico last week will have mended drooping confidence and sore limbs. Joaquin Caparros’ (above) side is more vulnerable due to the absences of Nikos Karampelas, Loukas Vyntra, Andreas Ivanschitz e Issam El Adoua. Neither side will be unhappy with a draw. 1-1 is the bet.

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Villarreal v Celta de Vigo

Saturday,21.00

Everything hinges on how Villarreal cope with the absence of injured keeper Sergio Asenjo. They play fast, attacking football and give up chances. But thanks to the top form of the ex Atletico and Valladolid goalie they’ve only conceded three more goals than second placed Madrid. Juan Carlos takes over and will need to excel.

Villarreal Juan Carlos

Celta play a very similar attacking, risky football – but possess significantly less quality in all departments than the Yellow Submarine. Should Villarreal control the midfield through Bruno and if Gio has his day then a) this should be fun to watch and b) it profiles as a 3-1 home win … IF Juan Carlos (above) doesn’t have stage fright. Villareal to win (3-1 if you fancy a scorecast).

Will it be death or glory with this bet? Take Graham Hunter’s 5/1 acca with Paddy Power here

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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Mesut Ozil rising to the occasion

Posted on April 24, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

European football expert Graham Hunter (@bumpergraham) is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure will prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Mesut Ozil has become a world class footballer under Jose Mourinho. He arrived in Spain as a young man of patent talent but the physical training at Madrid has not only completely altered his stamina (no longer is it a trademark that he’s subbed after 70 minutes) but given him significantly more top-body strength with which to hold off challenges and to buy himself space.

But, more than that, this game is a local derby against ‘the enemy’ for him. Born 35 minutes away from the Dortmund’s amazing Signal Iduna Park and originally a Schalke 04 youth talent, Ozil has always loved a tussle with the ScharzGelb (Black and Yellow).

How Ozil became the key man

Perhaps there’s something Pavlovian about the German midfielder’s response to facing Dortmund but having shone against them domestically for Schalke and Bremen, Özil was then probably the stand-out performer in the two Group D games between the sides earlier this season.

Away from home, admittedly in defeat, his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski’s opener.

In the return match it was the Real Madrid No 10 whose left-footed cross dropped perfectly for Pepe to head home the first equaliser and, again, it was Özil who squared the game in the last seconds thanks to a daring free kick which slid in at Roman Weidenfeller’s left hand post.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons.

What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

Pepe is the weak link

One man who’ll have to completely change his level of performance from the group games is Pepe. He gave away possession, allowed a shot to go right under his boot and was outjumped by Robert Lewandowski for three of the four goals in Group D which gave Jurgen Klopp’s team a win and a draw.

Important to Madrid in terms of height, power and pace Pepe is also a player who is notoriously capable of losing concentration and of losing his head. It will be a volatile atmosphere at Signal Iduna, Lewandowski says he’s fully fit and this is going to be a test for the Portugal international.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Dortmund merit respect for being quick, technical, smart, confident, well coached and terrifically well supported. However it’s possible that, tonight, experience and timing are slightly more in Madrid’s favour than a couple of months ago.

Malaga showed that Dortmund are vulnerable to the counter attack, Mario Gotze’s transfer to Bayern being announced can’t help and, perhaps, the gap between the sides which was evident late last year has narrowed a little.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

VIDEO: Watch for Graham Hunter’s tips on Dortmund v Real Madrid

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[VIDEO] Graham Hunter exclusive: Dortmund, Madrid, La Liga pride and Ozil rising to the occasion.

Posted on April 24, 2013 by SoccerCapper

600x300_grahamHunter

European football expert and red-hot tipster Graham Hunter is predicting Real Madrid’s experience and composure to prove key in getting a positive result in tonight’s Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund in Germany.

If it’s not to be a complete Bundesliga domination of this week’s Champions League semi finals then, ironically, Real Madrid might depend on a German to restore some La Liga pride.

Away from home, admittedly in defeat, his was the clever lofted assist-pass which helped Cristiano Ronaldo score almost instantly after going behind to Robert Lewandowski´s opener.

Champions League MBS

Again on the positive side for the reigning Spanish champions Ronaldo is on the most powerful, convincing and enjoyable form of his entire career. Beyond all the normal talent, power, height, free kicks, pace and heading ability there’s no missing the fact that since the Ballon D’Or went to Leo Messi in January the Portuguese has quietly got on with dominating Spanish football and putting himself in a position to rob Messi of the Champions League top scorer award for the first time in five seasons. What’s more, he’s also a more complete team player than ever before. Previously there were uneven comparisons between Ronaldo and Messi in terms of goal assists but, again, CR7 has begun to close the gap and has been generous this season, in La Liga and the Champions League, in giving goals to Benzema, Higuain (who’ll start tonight) Ozil and Di Maria.

On that subject Mourinho will use Diego: Ramos, Pepe, Varane, Coentrao, Alonso, Khedira, Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain tonight.

If he improves from his last two meetings with Dortmund and if Ozil and Ronaldo hit their marks then Madrid have the chance of taking a score draw back to Spain.

Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

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LA LIGA PREVIEW: The FIFA virus WILL strike and Getafe could benefit most

Posted on April 6, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Graham Hunter byline

They call it the FIFA Virus. Not a pleasant term, but there you go.

It’s damaging, there’s a huge debate about whether a cure exists, and you can catch this bug three, even four times per season.

It’s what Spain calls the affliction which troubles the country’s biggest clubs when they finally get their star players back from international duty and then face a tricky tie (usually away).

It’s also, partly, the reason FIFA introduced the idea of playing internationals on Fridays and Tuesdays.

Thus the biggest clubs around Europe get their players back a little sooner and, eventually, the ‘virus’ might become a little less debilitating.

I raise it because this is the week when wheat and chaff could be forcibly separated.

PAIN IN SPAIN: Iniesta, pictured against Ireland, will miss three games after his international duty injury

Real Madrid travel to Sevilla and Barcelona play in Madrid, always a hostile city for them, and it’s against Getafe.

Whichever side posts a big away performance could significantly influence what’s likely to be a two-way battle for the title. And Barca’s ability to do so has been undermined by a thigh injury to Andrés Iniesta, picked up in Georgia with Spain, will means he misses three matches, while Jordi Alba has returned to base with tonsillitis, too.

Getafe’s coach is extraordinary

You might not know a hell of a lot about the little club from the working class suburb of the Spanish capital but I think Getafe’s coach is pretty extraordinary.

Luis Garcia took Real Madrid’s scalp a couple of weeks ago and last season he and Getafe inflicted a 1-0 defeat on Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. While he was at Levante, Garcia produced a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 win against José Mourinho’s Real Madrid.

Over the last couple of seasons Garcia’s teams have defeated Athletic Madrid (twice), drawn with and beaten Valencia (3-1), put five goals past Sevilla. He’s not only a good organiser who openly admires the idea of making it hard for stylish teams to play and who believes strongly in the high tempo pressing game but he comes from the Mourinho/Benitez school of – win first; ask questions about finesse later.

How the FIFA Virus works…

So it’s particularly in tests like this that the FIFA virus can play a part.

Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Atletico Madrid send South American players like Marcelo, Higuain, Messi, Mascherano, Dani Alves, Diego Alves, Alexis, Jonas and Falcao away to their national teams, and they come back knackered.

Usually it’s an overnight flight back to arrive around Wednesday breakfast, three or four hours sleep if they are lucky then a meal, then training.

After that the working routine between Thursday morning and matchday is the same as normal but the players’ sleep patterns are not.

Those who suffer worst of all from jet lag can spend up to two weeks trying to get their sleep routines back to normal – it adds to dopiness, sluggishness and slower decision making in high-tempo match situations.

Where Getafe have an advantage

Now take the opposition, Getafe for instance. Garcia really lost no more than a handful of players, none of whom had to fly transatlantic.

Barrada, Sarabia, Álvaro, Lacen – they’re important guys but also in the minority in that Garcia had the rest of his squad to work with.

Think about it. Two full weeks, minus a couple of days off to recharge batteries, where defensive tactics and attacking strategies can be worked on over and over again.

Niggling injuries heal, new players get a chance to bed in, the coach preaches his gospel.

Nearly two working weeks with one single, clear-cut focus – it breeds a hungry, fit, aggressive opponent for the jaded, jet lagged big guys.

Last season’s 1-0 defeat at Getafe came shortly after the November international break when Spain’s international players lost to England then flew to Costa Rica and back for a meaningless friendly.

There’s currently a five-point gap between the co-favourites for La Liga, in Barca’s favour. However, the need for them to cope with the hostile test ahead of them on Saturday is apparently exacerbated by Real Madrid’s fixture.

The trip to play Sevilla has often been a classic in recent seasons, not only a place that Los Blancos might drop points but a clash which could provide the most brilliant football imagineable.

But Sevilla have no Freddie Kanouté, no Luis Fabiano, no Adriano, Renato, Alves, Poulsen, Keita or Juande Ramos. The golden era has rusted and on their last two visits Real Madrid have plundered six points and 12 (yes TWELVE) goals, of which Ronaldo has scored seven.

The Andalucians have done some strengthening, notably Diego Lopez in goal and this might well prove to be a firmer examination of Mourinho’s champions. However, prima facie, Barca face the tougher match, the FIFA Virus may be about to bite and, even this early, it could be a big weekend.

Who’s up for it?

Betting: La Liga
More Graham Hunter columns

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight into La Liga can regularly be heard on TV and radio. He will be providing regular columns for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football this season. Follow him on twitter here.

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