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Graham Hunter: La Liga is on the brink but I’m ready to strike with a 28/1 acca this weekend

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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.

There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm

David Moyes

  •  Shoot over to all the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.

Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.

Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.

From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.

And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.

Barcelona-800

Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.

A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.

Squad Rotation

There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.

Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.

Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available

  • Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -2 is 4/9.

Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm

Gareth Bale

  • Hey you! Jog on and get all the latest La Liga odds here on Desktop | Mobile 

Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!

Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.

Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.

More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.

To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.

Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.

Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?

It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.

  • Madrid to win by exactly one goal is 11/4

Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am

Gabi

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This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.

The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.

Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.

Raul Garcia

‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.

From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.

One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – i.e. so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.

You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.

  • Atletico to win is 1/2

Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

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A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.

Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.

The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.

Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.

Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.

Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.

Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.

  • Draw at 13/5

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Graham Hunter: La Liga is on the brink but I’m ready to strike with a 36/1 acca this weekend

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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.

There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm

David Moyes

  •  Shoot over to all the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.

Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.

Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.

From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.

And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.

Barcelona-800

Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.

A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.

Squad Rotation

There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.

Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.

Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available

  • Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -3 is evens.

Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm

Gareth Bale

  • Hey you! Jog on and get all the latest La Liga odds here on Desktop | Mobile 

Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!

Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.

Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.

More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.

To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.

Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.

Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?

It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.

  • Madrid, surely? By a goal. Madrid -1 is evens.

Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am

Gabi

  • Make like Tom and Cruise over to all the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.

The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.

Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.

Raul Garcia

‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.

From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.

One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – ie so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.

You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.

  • Atletico -1 is 8/5

Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

  • This lad is about to fly over for the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.

Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.

The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.

Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.

Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.

Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.

Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.

  • Draw at 13/5

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City ready to kick on

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Wednesday’s action in the Champions League will complete the halfway-stage of the group stages with England’s remaining contingent so far enduring contrasting fortunes in Europe’s elite competition.

Arsenal were handed what looked one of the easier draws in the groups this year and so far the Gunners have followed the script with two wins out of two to sit pretty at the top of Group A.

Arsene Wenger’s men can take a massive step towards the knockout stages with victory on Wednesday and they are priced at Even money to collect the three points, while Schalke are on offer at 14/5 with the draw at 5/2.

It is difficult to argue with the fact that the Gunners are favourites, given their rich history in the competition as well as the fact that they have put together a 16-match unbeaten streak at home in the Champions League since a 3-1 defeat against Manchester United in the semi-finals in 2009.

However, all is perhaps not so rosy in the Gunners camp with an injury list robbing them of a number of key players while they go into the game on the back of a surprise 1-0 reverse at Norwich. Admittedly that result was away but it is now left them 10 points behind Chelsea in the Premier League and the priority could be the domestic clash with QPR at the weekend.

Schalke have made an encouraging start to the season, lying third in the Bundesliga and, along with leaders Bayern Munich, have yet to be beaten on the road this season, which includes a win at champions Borussia Dortmund last Saturday.

The Royal Blues have made a good start to Group A as well, unbeaten after two games, and continue that run with a share of the spoils on Wednesday.

Manchester City were done no favours by the draw last term in their first season in Europe’s elite competition but have arguably faired worse in their second. The English champions have been drawn against their Spanish, German and Dutch counterparts and have picked up just one point from their opening two games.

Roberto Mancini’s men surrendered two late goals at the Bernabeu to ultimately slip to defeat but got one of their own against Dortmund to at least get up and running. That draw at the Etihad could be seen as a disappointing result but they now have the chance to their campaign up and running with back to back games against the weakest team in the group.

City have been installed as the 8/11 favourites in the match betting to pick up their first win in the competition in Amsterdam, with Ajax priced up at 4/1 and the draw at 11/4 – and it is not hard to see why.

City have won their last two away games with the latest coming despite the fact that they had been reduced to 10 men in the first half, while they also kept their first clean sheet of the season two weeks ago against Sunderland.

Ajax have been held on their last two occasions in the Eredivisie while they got thrashed 4-1 by Real Madrid at the Amsterdam Arena in matchday two. David Silva might be a notable absentee for the Citizens but they have far too much ammunition to earn a valuable three points.

Elsewhere and Porto can tighten their grip on Group A with victory over Dynamo Kiev, while big-spending Paris Saint Germain look good to return to winning way at Dinamo Zagreb.

Zenit St Petersburg have failed to deliver in the tournament so far and are perhaps too short to beat fellow Group C strugglers Anderlecht, although Malaga can put one foot in the knockout stages with victory over an out-of-sorts AC Milan side at 11/10, and Real Madrid have all the necessary tools to take care of business in Germany and beat Borussia Dortmund at 11/10.

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AVB ready to get his own back

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The focus of attention now returns to Premier League duty following the international break with a hectic Saturday schedule to get stuck into, kicking off with a mouth-watering London derby.

Tottenham v Chelsea (12:45)
Two form sides go head-to-head at White Hart Lane with Spurs recovering from their opening-day setback to forge a nine-match unbeaten streak, winning their last four in the league, while Chelsea have started the season in fine fettle, winning their last five in all competitions to hold a four-point lead at the top of the table.

There is added spice to this fixture with Andre Villas-Boas taking on his former club and he is fancied to exact some ‘revenge’ with Spurs installed as the 8/5 favourites, with the Blues on offer at 9/5 and the draw at 12/5 in the match betting.

The Lilywhites have established White Hart Lane as something of a fortress of late, losing just two of their last 22 at home, and they also have a decent record against fierce rivals Chelsea there as well – unbeaten in their last six.

Gareth Bale (7/1 First/Last Goalscorer) and Jermain Defoe (5/1) have been in good form this season and Spurs can make home advantage count against a John Terry-less Chelsea, although it will not be one-sided.

Fernando Torres (11/8 Anytime Scorer) has hit the back of the net six times this season and is perhaps starting to show the form that persuaded Chelsea to fork out £50m for his services, while the additions of Eden Hazard (9/4) and Oscar (5/2)have provided new and exciting options.

However, in the middle of a derby, there remain questions whether they are up for a fight and Spurs at 8/5 at home look a good shout to continue their winning streak.

West Brom v Man City (3pm)
Champions City have not started this season as they did the last but they do still remain unbeaten in the league, lying in third place, four points behind the leaders.

Roberto Mancini’s men have seemingly struggled on the road, winning just once so far – at Fulham – while they have been held at Stoke and Liverpool, and they have managed just one clean sheet this term – at home against Sunderland.

The Italian tactician also has selection headaches with most of his squad spread across all parts of the globe over the international break, while there is a crucial Champions League next Wednesday at Ajax to worry about.

That certainly offers hope for the Baggies, who have begun the season impressively at the Hawthorns, winning four out of four to see them surprisingly placed in six in the table, just a point behind Saturday’s opponents.

Whether they have the tools to grab a coupon-busting win is open to question – they have not scored in their last four matches against City – but they look capable of holding the champions (WBA 4/1, Draw 11/4, City 8/11 Match Betting), having lost just one of their last six games against the Citizens at the Hawthorns.

Man United v Stoke City (3pm)
Manchester United are strong favourites at 2/7 to continue a good recent record of five wins from six games, with Stoke priced at 11/1 to record their first win against the Red Devils since 1993, and first at Old Trafford since 1976.

United lead the Premier League in terms of goals with 17 so far, while the Potters continue to struggle to find the back of the net with just six successes in the opening seven games.

However, Tony Pulis’s men are always hard to beat, having held Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool this season while they were only beaten by a late goal against Chelsea.

Forget the records, Everton and Spurs have already ended their hoodoo against United this season, and although they may not win, Stoke could land a price with a draw on Saturday at 9/2.

Elsewhere, it is difficult to see anything other than wins for Fulham, Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham, while Swansea against Wigan looking a real puzzler, given the inconsistencies and recent problems for both teams.

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Rivals ready to go again

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Liverpool entertain bitter rivals Manchester United at Anfield and champions Manchester City play host to Arsenal on a busy day of Premier League action and Totesport betting opportunities on Sunday.

Liverpool v Manchester United

These two great rivals meet upon a backdrop of emotion following the release of Hillsborough documents last week. Both clubs have appealed to the fans to end the unsavoury chanting that have dogged these fixtures in recent years, but not to lose the great rivalry that makes this game so special. Liverpool (7/4) have the recent edge in this fixture, having won four and lost none of their last five games in all competitions at home to United (13/8). However, the Reds have made a stumbling start to life under Brendan Rodgers and are yet to register a league win this campaign. They have struggled for goals and with Wayne Rooney also absent for the visitors, chances should be at a premium. The best bet appears to be the 1-1 draw priced at 11/2.

Newcastle v Norwich

Chris Hughton will be guaranteed a warm reception by the Newcastle fans when he makes his first return to St James’ Park since being controversially sacked in December 2010. His successor, Alan Pardew, is equally popular after guiding the Magpies (8/11) to fifth place last season. They face a Norwich (4/1) team who are showing signs of ’second season syndrome’. After a magnificent 12th place finish upon their return to the top flight last year, the Canaries have struggled for goals this time around and are still searching for their first win. With Toon striker Demba Ba showing signs of getting back to his best with a brace at Everton on Monday, it’s unlikely City will get the points here. Back a 3-0 Newcastle win priced @ 12/1.

Manchester City v Arsenal

Both Manchester City (8/11) and Arsenal (9/5) have made solid starts to the season and will put their early title credentials to the test at the Etihad Stadium. City were taught a harsh footballing lesson at Real Madrid on Tuesday, conceding two last minute goals to lose 3-2. Meanwhile Champions League veterans Arsenal won 2-1 at Montpellier. Don’t expect goals on Sunday though, there have been just six goals scored in the last six league meetings between the two sides. All three fixtures finished 1-0 last season and history looks likely to repeat itself here, back 1-0 to City priced @ 6-1.

Tottenham v QPR

Spurs (1/2) will go hunting for their first home win of the season at the fourth time of asking against QPR (6/1) on Sunday. After a shaky start, Andre Villas-Boas’ men have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, defeating Reading 3-1 last weekend and drawing with Italian side Lazio in the Europa League on Thursday. Despite a summer of heavy investment QPR have yet to really get going this season, though they will be encouraged by a solid display in the 0-0 draw with Chelsea last weekend. They are very poor travellers though, taking just three points from their last 45 available and that run looks unlikely to improve here. Back the 2-0 win to Spurs priced @ 6/1.

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City ready for big Euro test

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The serious business in the Champions League gets underway with a real humdinger of a tie on the very first night as two of the tournament fancies go head to head when Real Madrid host Manchester City at the Bernabeu (Real 4/1, City 10/1 – Tournament Outright).

City were done no favours by the draw for the group stages last season in their first foray into the Champions League but fate has been arguably crueler this time around.

If ever there was a ‘Group of Death’, Group D certainly appears to be it as Borussia Dortmund and Ajax are also involved to pit the champions of England, Spain, Germany and Holland against each other (Real 4/5, City 15/8, Dortmund 5/1, Ajax 20/1 – Group D Winners).

There will be no excuses about complacency in this fixture – which has arguably been used in the past – with both sides having genuine aspirations of going the distance in Europe’s elite competition.

Real have made the Bernabeu a stronghold and recorded six straight home victories in last season’s competition, scoring 24 goals in the process, and are unsurprisingly installed as 8/13 favourites in the match betting to kick off with a win.

Los Blancos have made a slow start to the season, already suffering two league defeats albeit both on the road, but motivation could be a factor – as they showed no lack of it in the Spanish Super Cup and managed to get the better of Barcelona over two legs on the away goals rule.

City look a big price at 4/1 in the match betting considering the talent at their disposal but they have also made a slow start to the season, being held on both away trips in the Premier League so far.

Roberto Mancini’s men lost three of their five games on the road in Europe last season, although they did win in Spain when beating Villarreal – their first in the country at the fourth attempt.

The recent form of the two sides does make this tougher to call, but City have enough strength in depth and will have learned from their experiences last term to come away with something (Draw 11/4).

The other game in the group gives Borussia Dortmund home advantage and, although their record in last season’s competition was poor, they should have the tools in Robert Lewandowski et al to see off Ajax at the Signal-Iduna-Park (Dortmund 4/9, Draw 3/1, Ajax 6/1 in the match betting).

Arsenal, meanwhile, kick their Champions League campaign off at last year’s surprise French champions Montpellier and look good value at 6/5 to open up with a win.

Montpellier, of course, lost star striker Olivier Giroud to the Gunners over the summer and although he has yet to score for the north Londoners, his absence does leave a big hole up front for Rene Girard’s outfit.

La Paillade have won just one of their opening five fixtures in Le Championnat and although three of them have been on the road, it is difficult to see them upsetting the odds at 11/5 (Draw also 11/5) when a confident Gunners’ side rides into town.

The weekend form does not read too well for Zenit Saint-Petersburg following a 2-0 home defeat to Terek Grozny but, with Hulk and Axel Witsel starting on the bench, it is clear they had one eye on Tuesday’s encounter in Spain.

Malaga looked impressive in beating Levante 3-1 at home but the Granotes are hardly a powerhouse, particularly on the road, and Zenit can avoid defeat at La Rosaleda (Malaga 6/4, Draw 11/5, Zenit 7/4 – Match Betting).

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Forest ready for Bolton battle

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Nottingham Forest have made a positive start to their Championship campaign and will make the trip to the Reebok Stadium on Friday confident they can get something from their clash with Bolton Wanderers (Bolton Wanderers Evens, draw 5/2, Nottingham Forest 13/5 – Match Betting).

The Reds claimed a win on the opening day of the season with a 1-0 home victory over Bristol City, followed by a hard fought 1-1 draw against Huddersfield Town in West Yorkshire in midweek from which they were unlucky not to claim the three points from.

Manager Sean O’Driscoll has made his side hard to beat in their opening games and it looks like Forest (7/2 – Promotion Outright) will be in the mix for the play-offs come the end of the regular season.

Backed by their new Kuwaiti owners, Forest have been able to make some strong signings over the summer and they are likely to add to the squad at the City Ground before the window closes at the end of the month.

The signing of Simon Cox from West Brom already looks like it will pay off over the course of the season, as he found the net against the Terriers on Tuesday and looked a threat throughout.

With the likes of Lewis McGugan  and Dexter Blackstock in their ranks, Forest have some real attacking threats who are bound to get chances presented to them on Friday night against a Bolton outfit who have already shown they can be vulnerable at the back this term.

The Whites had a rude awakening to life in the Championship when they were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Lancashire rivals Burnley last weekend.

That result at Turf Moor will have been a bitter pill to swallow for Trotters boss Owen Coyle against his former employers but he will have been pleased with his side’s display in midweek when they saw off Derby County 2-0 at the Reebok.

Bolton (7/1 – Championship Outright) will be a tough proposition on home soil this term, as they have been able to keep hold of many of their key players who dropped down from the Premier League last season.

Mark and Kevin Davies form the spine of the team in the upper half of the pitch and Coyle will need to keep both those players at the club beyond the transfer window if they are to be successful in the second tier of English football.

The strong back two of Matthew Mills and Zat Knight will be tough to break down and the pair of Keith Andrews and Chris Eagles in the middle of the park will add an extra attacking threat that Forest will have to be wary of.

This certainly looks like it will be a very close game and it could go either way, depending on who can make the most of their chances.

It looks like there could well be a share of the spoils which would probably make O’Driscoll the happier of the two managers as Forest (12/1 – Championship Outright) would maintain their unbeaten record in the league this season.

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Germans ready to peak

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Punters considering an outright wager on Euro 2012 should not be deterred by a second straight friendly defeat inflicted on 3/1 tournament second favourites and three-times European champions Germany on Saturday.

Joachim Loew’s charges fell to a shock 5-3 defeat at the hands of Switzerland but it is safe to suggest a much-changed Die Mannschaft will be ready for their Group C opener against Portugal on June 9 (Germany 4/5, draw 9/4, Portugal 3-1 – 90 Minutes).

The fact that Loew cancelled a trip on Sunday to watch the Monaco Grand Prix with the rest of the squad should also be taken as a sign that he will leave no stone unturned.

“Many things did not fit, but I am not too concerned as I know that we will improve in the next week and the one after that. We will be ready,” he said.

The Germans were runners-up to Spain in the same tournament four years ago and finished third in an encouraging World Cup campaign in 2010.

There is genuine belief that Loew has assembled a squad ready to peak and usurp a La Rojas squad perhaps suffering from heavy legs.

They qualified for the Poland and Ukraine showpiece winning an astonishing 10 games – scoring 34 goals – and in Mario Gomez (6/1 – Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer) boast arguably one of the most potent strikers in European football.

A midfield containing Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Toni Kroos has to merit the utmost respect, while Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski and tournament specialist Miroslav Klose beef up an impressive attacking department.

Key to Germany’s chances will be getting out of a tough Group B containing Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark (Germany 1/4 – To Qualify).

Loew is also charged with the task of lifting the morale of the squad’s Bayern Munich contingent off the back of a heart-wrenching domestic season in which the Bavarians lost on penalties to Chelsea in the Champions League final on home soil, were pipped to the Bundesliga title by Borussia Dortmund and lost the DFB Pokal final to the same opponents.

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Montpellier ready to make history

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The final games of the Ligue 1 season take place on Sunday and it looks set to be a thrilling last day at both the top and the bottom. Montpellier and Paris Saint-Germain are both battling it out for the title, while no fewer than eight teams are fighting for top-flight survival.

Montpellier are in the box seat to take the trophy for the first time in their history, with a three-point lead over their closest challengers, PSG. The goal difference is equal though, at +33, and a slip-up from the leaders on the final day is likely to see the big-spending captial outfit snatch the title.

But Rene Girard’s league leaders look unlikely to lose against already-relegated Auxerre, especially on their current run of form. Montpellier have only lost one of their last nine games, winning seven of those including away victories over Marseille, Toulouse and Rennes.

PSG’s only hope is that the pressure is off Auxerre and that they look to end on a high note – with the bottom club winning just one of their last three home games (Match Betting – Auxerre 5/1, draw 11/4, Montpellier 4/7).

Carlo Ancelotti’s men also have a big game at Lorient, who could go down if beaten by PSG. Lorient did win the reverse fixture 0-1 in Paris back in August and have not lost to their final-day opponents in the last five meetings.

But PSG (10/1 to win 3-0) have lost just once in their last seven league games and the goals have been flying in as well, with 16 scored in their last five fixtures.

Should, as expected, Lorient lose to the title challengers, then Les Merlus are in real danger of dropping out of the top flight – with just a point between them and the relegation zone.

Two relegation spots need to be filled and second-from-bottom Dijon look almost certain to join Auxure in Ligue 2 next season. Patrice Carteron’s men will start the day two points from safety and face a tough trip to seventh-placed Rennes (Match Betting – Rennes 4/5, draw 11/4, Dijon 16/5).

Of the other relegated-threatend teams, the one fixture that could prove crucial is the clash between Valenciennes and Caen – currently 12th and 17th respectively and both in danger of going down (HT-FT Draw/Draw 4/1).

Caen have lost on their last three visits to the Stade du Hainaut and look like the side that could fill that third relegation birth.

The other teams still fearing a last-day relegation are third-from-bottom Ajaccio (away to Toulouse), Brest (away to Evian), Sochaux (home to Marseille) and Nice (away to Lyon).

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Hatters ready for big time

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Two former Football League clubs will go head-to-head in the Blue Square Bet Premier Division play-off final at Wembley on Sunday as York City and Luton Town bid to make a return to League Two (totesport – match prices).

York boss Gary Mills takes his side back to the national stadium for the second successive weekend after their 2-0 FA Trophy victory against Newport last Saturday.

The Minstermen (11/10 Promotion) will be in confident mood for the game and have plenty going for them with regards to head-to-heads with the Hatters in recent big encounters.

York recorded a league double over Luton with a 3-0 win at Bootham Crescent last September followed by a 2-1 victory at Kenilworth Road in March. They also defeated the Hatters 2-1 on aggregate over two legs of their FA Trophy meeting during the campaign.

York also defeated Luton in their previous play-off encounter in 2010 when they followed up a 1-0 home win with the same score-line away to secure a place in the final which they went on to lose 3-1 against Oxford United.

Mills, who will go into this latest encounter boosted by the return of defender Chris Doig after he missed the FA Trophy success with a calf injury, claims promotion would be “like going from the Championship to the Premier League”.

Luton go into the game with the omens stacked against them, having followed up the 2010 semi-final defeat to York by losing last years final on penalties to Wimbledon, while their boss Paul Buckle tasted defeat with former club Torquay in the League Two play-off final.

However, Buckle did guide the Gulls back into the Football League in 2009 so knows what it takes to get a team through the pressure cooker atmosphere of a play-off final.

Buckle has no fresh injury concerns ahead of the game and could be boosted by the return of  midfielder Godfrey Poku from an ankle injury.

Going into the game he said: “We’ve had some massive games. It’s all there for the players. We’ve just got to Wembley believing and with a real positive frame of mind.”

York, who finished in fourth position in the regular season – one place and two points above Luton in fifth – scraped past Mansfeld after extra time in their semi-final, while the Hatters defeated a Wrexham side that finished three places and 17 points better off 3-2 on aggregate.

And, while York have won three of their four meetings in this past season not to mention having the psychological edge having won at Wembley last weekend, we feel it is Luton’s year to make a return to the Football League (4/6 Promotion) but they could require more than 90 minutes to do it.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
Value Bet: 1-1 Draw Correct Score 90 Minutes @ 11/2

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