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Graham Hunter: How a swashbuckling Real Madrid could bag you a 10/3 winner, plus an 18/1 draw double in this weekend’s La Liga preview

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Real Madrid v Espanyol – Saturday, 3pm

Madrid are a bit like those of us who say: ‘I’m not a morning person’. Bleary, sluggish – but capable of erupting into a blitzkrieg of action after a wee coffee. The Serena Williams of the football world. Yeah?

At the beginning of the season they were a bit Rip Van Winkle in defeats to Atlético and Real Sociedad, looking short on turbo-power. Lacking a cutting edge. Carlo Ancelotti warned then that these effects were temporary, that his fitness work would click and that the players would impose their class. So it proved. They won five straight in the league hitting 25 goals.

Right now they are suffering similar effects to the early season torpor. The physical and mental demands of setting a record of 22 straight wins, the post Christmas-break sluggishness – these factors affected the last two defeats, 2-1 to Valencia and 2-0 to Atlético in La Copa.

The question is: will that spark return this afternoon?

Carlo Ancelotti

Twice since 2008 Espanyol have popped up with a 2-2 draw at the Bernabéu but generally they are punchbags in this fixture.

Their coach, Sergio González, was co-author of one of the biggest shocks at this stadium, when Deportivo La Coruña won the Copa Del Rey at the Bernabéu beating Real Madrid on the day of their 100th birthday back in 2002. In fact he scored. A repeat would be epic – but also an epic shock.

Sergio García is, by a distance, Espanyol’s best player – European Championship winner with Spain in 2008. Barça-trained as a kid and Catalan to the core he’d presumably fancy augmenting his record of only having scored twice against Los Blancos and not having won once in 15 attempts. Sergio Ramos is rested, Rafa Varane, an out-of-reach Manchester United target, will partner Pepe in defence while Álvaro Arbeloa will keep his place at right back as Carvajal is suspended.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

Perhaps the most tempting factor is that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to collect another Ballon D’Or trophy on Monday night and, showman that he is, you’d expect him to take personal responsibility for a win with the flurry of goals his game has been lacking for the last month. Madrid to win by a two goal margin (at 10/3), Ronaldo (2/1 to score first) and Varane (15/2 anytime) on the scoresheet. 

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Malaga v Villarreal – Saturday, 5pm

Two happy stories bump heads. Málaga thought they had won the lottery but it all went a bit Viv Nicholson for them as the money which Al Thani promised started to run dry, salaries weren’t paid and a Uefa ban came thumping down on them. The crash and burn effect of such run-ins with sudden wealth can be horrific but, somehow, the seaside club has not only taken the body blow in its stride … Málaga are damn impressive.

Their youth academy has produced them a clutch of terrific young talents, players who not only wear the shirt with extra pride but who have clear, mercurial talent with which the local fans passionately identify – hence the terrific attendances at the Rosaleda. [La Rosaleda holds 30,000 and the average crowd this season is over 25,000]

Samuel García, Samu Castilejo, Juanpi, Portillo Juanmi and Sergi Darder are all 24 or under and have all spent healthy amounts of time in Málaga’s own youth system. Roque Santa Cruz has moved on so now there’s an emphasis on Nordin Amrabat turning his marauding form into goals … and avoiding injury a bit more.

Villarreal’s verve has been such a refreshing presence in La Liga that their bouncebackability after one season demoted was mega-welcome. Last year was consolidation, this season Marcelino has them playing terrifically attractive football where Denis Cheryshev, Bruno and Luciano Vietto stand out.

  • The Yellow Submarine have scored in every single one of the 19 games they’ve played since losing 0-2 to Madrid in late September. They have scored in all but one of their 14 away matches this season and Villarreal have fifteen different scorers in all competitions. Málaga have scored in each of their last 14 matches so you might like a ‘both teams to score’ flutter at 4/5

Villarreal’s cavalier attitude cost them a win at Elche last week when from 2-0 up they drew 2-2 so perhaps their heavy programme [eight Europa League matches plus league and cup] is taking a toll. But back them to do no worse than a point in a score draw at 10/3, possibly an away win at 6/4.

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Celta v Valencia – Saturday, 7pm

‘Celta plays good football even though it hasn’t been going well for them over recent matches. ‘They are dynamic, they keep the ball well, they make chances – current results don’t reflect Celta’s real personality’.

Never truer words from Valencia coach Nuno Espirito Santo.

Celta were good enough to beat Real Madrid at the dog-end of last season, draw at Atlético in September then record their first away win against Barcelona as ‘recently’ as November. After which, you’d guess, their coach Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo must have dropped a consignment of mirrors.

Injuries, errors, bad luck and total confusion amongst his players about what those posts and nets are actually for – that’s been Celta since the win at the Camp Nou.

  • They are 665 minutes without a league goal. Sixty seconds more and there might be a numerical clue about what’s going on.

Just to torture Toto a bit more Celta remembered how to score in the Copa del Rey, seven in the last thee matches, but completely forgot how to defend in the midweek Cup tie against Athletic Bilbao which they lost 4-2 at home.

Joaquin Larrivey, leading scorer, is still banned as a result of mistaken identity [ref hears insult, ref waves red card, striker suspended for four games despite being innocent party] but at least Nolito is back in the squad after injury.

Two defenders, Cabral and Planas are absent so, as such, Valencia have a chance of maintaining their push for glory with an away win.

But their personality is as changeable as Scottish weather. They thumped champions Atlético in October, then went and waved the white flag at struggling Deportivo in the next game, losing 3-0. They gave Barcelona a chasing one week then barely scrambled a draw at Granada next time out. And Los Che dismantled Rayo in the league on December 13, 3-0, but three days later only drew 4-4 at home against the same side.

Valencia lost in Vigo last season, Charles scoring twice and he is worth a look again having hit the net against Athletic in midweek (15/8 anytime). Álvaro Negredo (23/10 anytime) doesn’t mind a goal against Celta, three in two, and his two goals in twelves matches since signing for Valencia don’t fully reflect his effort, chances or form . Score draw at 16/5 anyone?

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Barcelona v Atletico – Sunday, 8pm

The key is Messi. No change there I hear you say. Fine, but consider this.

  • Leo Messi’s goal record against Atlético is 17 in 20 matches – not too shabby.

Now factor in the extra data.

  • It’s seven games since Messi scored against Los Rojiblancos, across two long years.

Do the arithmetic. He treated Atleti like rag-dolls before – scoring 17 times in 13 matches. Since Diego Simeone really got hold of his squad there’s been a total Messi drought.

Correspondingly, Barcelona are now six games without a win against the current Spanish champions – one defeat and five draws. Atleti have got their number and that number is 10. The one on Messi’s back.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

Barcelona are still, theoretically, competitive in this league because of their home form. Away from home they have become limper than a wet dish-rag. In the league at the Camp Nou they are averaging nearly four goals per game but here’s the key – Messi has scored 13 of his 15 Liga goals at the Camp Nou. If Atleti manage to clamp him with their defensive congestion charge then they’ve a chance of a draw or better.

If Messi, as electric and ‘involved’ as at any time this season when orchestrating the 5-0 Copa win over Elche on Thursday, wriggles free then Barça should win and strike a huge blow against the tidal wave of ‘crisis’ headlines which have engulfed them.

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Little vignettes proliferate across this game. Luis Suárez against his international team-mate Diego Godín should be herculean. Mario Mandzukic’s last visit to the Camp Nou didn’t yield a goal but did give a 3-0 win for his Bayern side – the Croat versus Gerard Piqué will be worth admission money. Ivan Rakitic has three goals in ten matches against Atleti which doesn’t make him prolific but it’s as many as he’s scored against any opposition in his career and it was against Simeone’s team he incurred one of only two red cards in his career. Xavi’s absence may mean the Croat playmaker joins Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield three. Finally, Antoine Griezmann. Again. Opened his account against Levante last week, netting twice having never scored against them previously. He has two goals in his last two meetings with Barça but hasn’t ever scored at the Camp Nou. Take your pick. But the win/lose equation centres on Messi.

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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid may lose the battle but win the war with Bayern Munich

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Real Madrid’s record in Germany is just so atrocious that you’d forgive the hoteliers, bar owners and resterauteurs in Lisbon for getting ahead of the game and laying in stocks of Deutsche phrase-books, lagoons of lager and a herd of sausage meat.

Big spending, bouncy, brash, hungry and thirsty Bavarians are coming to town. Right?

But dispensing with the lies and damn lies and heading straight for statistics there’s at least some data to suggest that the reigning European champions have a chunky task on their hands tonight (7.45pm).

While Los Blancos have lost five and drawn only one of their last six visits to Munich every single one of those last six results (a quintet of 2-1′s and a 1-1 draw) would serve to qualify Madrid for the final if it were reproduced this evening.

The last time Madrid failed to score in Bavaria one of the main protagonists of the war of words around last week’s tie, Franz Beckenbauer, was wearing short trousers and boots and Los Blancos’ midfield play was being run by a certain tall, skinny Vicente Del Bosque. (April, 1976, if you feel the need to know).

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Franz Beckenbaeur 840

More heat than light

The heat generated over the first leg had a lot to do with tactics, philosophy, internal warring, possession and ‘sterility’.

Within Spain, certainly within the Santiago Bernabéu there was no frothing at the mouth about the fact that the nine time European champions decided, in advance, not to compete for possession and chose a strategy of counter-attack football.

Some of the Bayern players, Thomas Müller in particular, scoffed a little at the tactic – amazed that it flew so brazenly in the face of Madrid’s history, and in the knowledge that it would be unforgiveable at Bayern.

The ‘row’ factor centred on just that Bavarian philosophy. They are, by nature, a ‘sturm und drang‘ club – conflict, desire, antagonism, stress, hunger, pressure.

They play intelligent football, talented football – but not percentage football.

If they were a driver they’d be Ayrton Senna, if they were a flavour they’d be tabasco. If they were music they’d be AC/DC.

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Pep Guardiola840

On the (counter) attack

Guardiola was criticised (again) by Beckenbauer. L’Equipe splashed it’s next edition with the headline ‘Real Politik’ stating that Bayern had been taught a lesson in ‘real’ life and efficacy.

Guardiola’s possession football was mocked.

I thought that there was a dreadful, ill informed reaction to how Bayern played to the exclusion of proper analysis of what actually happened in the first leg – ie how close the German champions were to doing something special.

However, I think there has also been some confusion emanating from the first leg about Real Madrid and what brand of football they espouse.

Three of the Champions League semi-final teams last week played on the counter attack. But I’d argue that there was a clear difference between what Real Madrid chose to do and Chelsea’s (understandable) parking of the bus at the Calderon.

Madrid don’t revoke possession – it’s just that they are extremely effective with what they have.

ronaldo_freekick

You’re very Possessive

Take their Champions League record this season as proof.

Away to Copenhagen they won 2-0 (with 59% possession). A home to Galatasaray they won 4-1 (50%). A way to Juve they drew 2-2 (52%). At home to Juve they won 2-1 (52%). At home to Copenhagen they won 4-0 (58%). Away to Galatasaray they won 6-1 (50%).

In the first knock-out round they beat Schalke 6-1 away (57%) and at home 3-1 (55%). Then they beat Dortmund in the first quarter final 3-0 (58%) and lost to them away 2-0 (49%).

They compete for the ball, they don’t sit and speculate, waiting on the Mourinho doctrine that the more the other side has possession the more likely it is they’ll make a mistake.

But Madrid are quite confident that if they have somewhere near a fair share of the ball then they’ll outscore the opposition – sometimes heavily.

They are startlingly effective as evidenced by their 12 goals away to Galatasaray and Schalke on an average 53.5% possession shows.

It’s part of the reason that Guardiola, in the build up to this second leg, has been emphasising that he expects to require three goals from his men in order to go through.

The case for the defence

Instinct tells me that it’s worth looking at Madrid’s two central defenders.

During the three previous semi finals which Los Blancos have reached consecutively Pepe, for all his football ability, has been a ‘sleeper’.

Sent off in the first (home) leg against Barcelona – Leo Messi’s two goals followed instantly.

Two years ago against Bayern he foolishly and needlessly gave away the penalty from which Arjen Robben squared the tie at 3-3 in the second leg.

Last season he was, utterly ruthlessly, exposed by Marko Reus and Robert Lewandowski. The striker gave Pepe a lesson in clinical penalty box football and should have sent him a bouquet of flowers and an apology for humiliation when the dust settled.

Can he amend that besmirched record tonight?

Then there’s Ramos.

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Ramos 840

Wounded pride

Two seasons ago he was mocked, mercilessly, for his crucial penalty miss, skied over the bar, at the decisive moment in the shoot-out to reach the final at the Allianz Arena.

He was so furious, this Errol Flynn footballer, at the cruelty of the reception to that moment (people portrayed his shot hitting Felix Baumgartner’s head as he was preparing to jump out of Red Bull Stratos and the video went viral) that he decided to even the score by ‘Panenka-chipping’ the Portugal keeper in the European Championship semi final during 2012.

On Saturday, he was rampaging forward and tried to get on the end of two Ronaldo crosses against Osasuna before finally heading home on the hour.

He’s on the verge of missing the final, should they qualify, given that he’s on a booking. But his attitude and actions were those of a man (in my knowledge of him) who’s still got a thorn in his side.

Weakness or strength – the rampaging, Boys-Own, ‘I can do anything if I try’ attitude which makes Ramos such an attractive footballer to watch? (Albeit with Real Madrid’s record red card total)

You decide. All I know is that I’ll be riveted to the game.

Off the fence

The odds and the sane, calm part of my brain says: Bayern, at home, only one goal to overcome – they HAVE to do it.

The Sergio Ramos, hot-blooded, Celtic part of my brain (the 95% part) says … it’s Madrid to go through on a 2-2 aggregate scoreline.

La Decima beckons?

  • For Madrid to go through on aggregate 2-2 means they get beaten 2-1 tonight by Munich @ 7/1.
  • Ramos is 25/1 to score the first goal or 8/1 to score at anytime over the 90 minutes tonight.

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Graham Hunter: Real Madrid + Bayern Munich = Goals. Guaranteed!!

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If the meeting of the irresistible force and the immoveable object in Madrid last night proved too much for your taste and you crave some adrenalin then the second Champions League semi final on consecutive nights in the Spanish capital may prove much less resistable.

Not only is Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich one of the world’s great grudge match, the two clubs have generally disliked and envied each other for generations, the 20 previous meetings between the Spanish and Bavarian royalty have produced 59 goals

There has never yet been a 0-0 and you’ll be damn lucky, watching this type of contest, if there’s no red card, a fan punching the referee or a player attacking an opposition number sufficiently wantonly to earn a 5 year band from European football.

All of which is readily discoverable if you look back at the knuckle-duster bust-ups in which the two clubs have indulged since Bayern first tipped Vicente del Bosque, Gunter Netzer and Paul Breitner out of the European Cup semi final (Ps Amancio was red carded) back in 1976.

A Long Bern-ing Rivalry

It was the club’s first meeting and since then Bayern have noticeably had the upper hand.

They’ve won 11 of the twenty matches, they’ve eliminated Los Blancos five out of the six times they’ve met at this semi final stage – the last time via penalties, back in 2012 with the contest tied at 3-3.

This is a roller coaster for which you’ll need a seat-belt.

Guardiola_Ancelotti_stats

Then there’s the two managers – each a debutant in this fixture, but neither man in any way inexperienced in terms of their rivals tonight.

Though Pep Guardiola has never coached a team against Real Madrid apart from his native FC Barcelona his record at the Bernabéu makes remarkable reading – 5 wins and 2 draws. No defeats.

In fact the last time Madrid lost at home in the Champions League it was to Guardiola’s Barcelona back in April 2011 – a week after winning the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona at the Mestalla. Spooky?

As for the longer-in-the-tooth Carlo Ancelotti he’s never lost to Bayern – four wins and two draws while he was coach of AC Milan.

So, what gives tonight?

Well, while Pep Guardiola has been making ‘this tie comes at the wrong time for us when we’ve lost a bit of cutting edge’ noises and generally playing possum the fact appears to be that he thinks his team is more athletic and can ‘hassle’ Madrid into mistakes.

To Xab’ And To Hold

Having taken a little longer than expected to fully recover from the groin surgery he underwent last summer because of a subsequent metatarsal injury, Xabi Alonso’s return to Ancelotti’s team has been fundamental.

It has given balance and order to midfield, it has protected the back four and it has allowed the Italian to deploy a 4-3-3 formation – which has been an enormous success.

Lately, however, it has felt as though the 32 year old packing in 36 games since late October has been a demanding schedule.

xabialonso

His reading of the game is as good as ever, his use of the ball exemplary but there’s been the feeling that he’s positioning himself a few metres deeper than usual as if to anticipate that opponents may try to produce driving runs away from him and he’s compensating just by remaining a little deep.

From Guardiola’s training session on Monday (remember Guardiola played that very position throughout his career) there could be heard the shouts to his players: “Don’t leave Alonso or Ronaldo alone for a minute – get on them all the time”

Pep-er Casillas Early On

The Catalan was also insistent that his players, particularly Kroos, Martinez, Ribery, Müller and Robben, break the normal team orders (which are to favour passing to a better-placed team mate over shooting) and strike at goal early and regularly.

casillas_robben

It isn’t a great deductive leap that he is questioning whether Iker Casillas, who has only been playing the Cup competitions and not the League campaign, might be a little rusty if he’s repeatedly asked to save testing shots swerving at him from distance?

While Madrid have won the last four home matches against Bayern they’ve only historically been able to eliminate their bête noir IF they don’t concede at home.
Other than that their record in Germany is, literally, appalling and they’ve lost four of the five semi finals of this competition they’ve competed against the Bavarians.

For the home side everything hinges not only on whether Ronaldo and Bale start, the former nearly recovered from hamstring problems the latter suffering badly from flu this week, but on whether they can perform at peak.

With them Madrid have tremendous speed on the counter, the power of two quite different free kick takers, danger from long range shots, real aerial threat and the importance of a tremendous partnership which is developing between the two players.

ronaldo_freekick

Two years ago Madrid showed, albeit in an aggregate defeat, that they are capable of playing at a tempo which the Germans rarely face and which, until Pepe gave away a needless penalty, looked like sending them through to the final.

Tonight the keys for Ancelotti’s side are: can he give the BBC (Bale, Benzema Cristiano) license to be creative; can his team keep a clean sheet and can they produce that roaring tempo which, every so often, makes the Bernabéu a daunting place for any opponent?

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Graham Hunter exclusive: Find out who is Real Madrid’s most important player (Hint: It ain’t Ronaldo!)

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European football expert Graham Hunter thinks Real Madrid will struggle without their most influential player, but they should still make the Champions League semi-finals.

Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Although there are some who, incorrectly and unfairly, judge him harshly because of his naked desire to win everything all the time and because his match-face shows every emotion in its starkest form (joy, frustration, anger, self recrimination and, yes, even arrogance) I’m a serious Cristiano Ronaldo fan.

He’s phenomenally gifted, he’s an utterly outstanding professional and off the pitch he’s both bright and articulate. There’s not a great deal more to ask for.

His goal-to-game ratio is redefining, exploding really, what we think the very best striker should be producing and were it not for Leo Messi we’d already be arguing where Ronaldo fits in the all-time pantheon.

As such, the Portuguese is Real Madrid’s most important player – at least when it comes to winning matches.

However he’s not the most important of José Mourinho’s squad when it comes to ensuring that Madrid don’t lose. That’s Xabi Alonso.

XABI ALONSO: The most important member

XABI ALONSO: Without him Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid are disjointed

Particularly when Mourinho uses his preferred formation (preferred as Madrid coach at least) of 4-2-3-1 the importance of the two organising, distributing, defending midfielders who pair in front of the back four is enormous.

Moreover, Alonso is very good there. Without him Madrid consistently look like a puppet with one of its six strings cut – in motion, possibly entertaining, but disjointed.

Order diminishes, confidence drops, decision making becomes less clinical and the tempo often decreases.

He, Sergio Ramos and, quite possibly, Pepe are all going to miss out tonight at the Türk Telecom Arena and I think it’ll cost Madrid. I doubt it will cost them progression to the semi final but it might just cost them a win on the night.

Madrid’s stats against Turkish teams aren’t ample but it’s a fact that they’ve still to win against a Turkish side, Galatasaray or Besiktas, apart from in Spain.

Diego Lopez and Rafa Varane have been standouts in recent months but with a denuded back four (likely no Arbeloa, Ramos or Pepe) and with Alonso absent I think it’s reasonable to take Galatasaray to score – and why not Didier Drogba? So, Madrid to suffer, Madrid to go through, Ronaldo to score, Drogba to score and, I have a sneaking feeling, one of Diego Lopez’s more testing nights.

  • Betting: Galatasaray v Real Madrid

Borussia Dortmund v Malaga

What of Málaga in Dortmund? Well, if you take mood to be as important an initial guide to their chances as the suspensions they suffered in the first leg then it’s decent news.

Most of the key players were rested in the 4-2 defeat at Real Sociedad at the weekend, man after man told me in the Mixed Zone last week after the 0-0 draw against the recently deposed German champions that they were 100% confident of getting a score draw at the Signal Iduna Park.

And one more little note about mood. It was very sad to hear of the death of Manuel Pellegrini’s father on Saturday. The Chilean hid the news from his players, coached the match, flew to Chile for the funeral and should be on the bench tonight. His players, and I mean this word, adore him. Their respect for him as a man and a coach is infinite. With what looks like a 30/70 chance of qualification in front of them their effort for Pellegrini will give them an extra jag.

But they’ll need it. Málaga, like Madrid, have an organising central midfielder, Manuel Iturra, and a centre-back, Weligton, suspended. Dortmund score heavily at home, should have won the first leg and have a superior squad. But  Málaga have only conceded 13 times in 27 Uefa matches and have seven clean sheets in their 12 Champions League outings this season.

IF, and I do mean IF there’s a major shock coming then I’d look to Roque Santa Cruz (a great record of wins and draws against Dortmund for Bayern Munich plus the winner at Signal Iduna back in September 2001) to nick a goal for Málaga. Referee Craig Thomson averages precisely four bookings per Champions League match and wouldn’t have a single red card in the competition had Alonso and Ramos not famously forced  orderings-off against Ajax to ‘clean’ their booking count two seasons ago.

Enjoy your football.

  • Betting: Borussia Dortmund v Malaga


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Ragged, lethargic, sloppy. That’s Real Madrid not Victor Valdes

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So, you reckon you’ve seen something pretty similar to Victor Valdés gaffe last week against Real Madrid which gifted Ángel Di Maria a goal and set up Wednesday night’s Spanish Super Cup decider just nicely at 3-2 to Barça?

Well you are on the money.

The Catalan keeper did something even more calamitous last December when he passed straight to Di Maria at the Bernabéu under absolutely no pressure and it led to Karim Benzema giving Madrid a 1-0 lead in just over a minute.

At least last week Di Maria had to press Valdés into his mistake to create a scoreline which Gerard Piqué joked was better than winning 3-1 ‘just to keep us sharp for the second leg’.

What I cannot understand, however, is the instant tidal wave of ‘told you he wasn’t any good’ reactions to any Valdés error – particularly from the UK.

It was the same after the first leg of the Champions league knockout tie at the Emirates when Arsenal beat Barça 2-1 after David Villa had given the visitors the lead. Robin Van Persie found it too easy to score on that occasion.

But let’s put it in some perspective. That was the season in which Barça went on to stun the world with that Wembley Champions League triumph (Valdés third medal in that competition), Barça then won last season’s liga Clasico 3-1 irrespective of their keeper’s early error – indeed they’ve not lost away to Madrid since May 2008.

In that time Barça have five wins and two draws at the Santiago Bernabéu scoring 18 and conceding seven.

Whether people like it or not, Valdés has been a central part of that remarkable statistic (barring the Cup victory last season when Pinto deputised).

Pep Guardiola

SWEEPER KEEPER OF THE FLAME : Pep Guardiola’s high-risk defensive strategy paid off (pic: Inpho)

The term sweeper-keeper has been en vogue for a long time now but Barça is the club where it fits most snugly.

Certainly since Pep Guardiola and Tito Vilanova took over in 2008 Barça have opted for a high-risk game at the back.

Often there will be only two defenders as the full backs become auxiliary midfielders in search of dominance in the centre of the pitch and the very nature of Barça ’s football philosophy is underpinned by the idea that there will be a high number of one-on-one contests during matches – including for the keeper.

What Barça ’s outrageous splurge of goals, trophies and thrilling football over the last four and a half years has seduced people into forgetting is that time and again Valdés has made whites-of-the-eyes saves when his defence has been caught out by counter-attacks or the long ball.

Just think about how Barcelona defend.

High line, minimal numbers at the back, often playing pass the parcel back and forwards across their penalty area in complete devotion to the ‘possession’ game – it’s defending by the Chuckle Brothers, ‘to me … to you’.

Victor Valdes

HOWLER: Barca keeper Victor Valdes gifted Real Madrid their second goal to keep their hopes alive

Yet Valdés has won five Zamora awards for the keeper who has conceded the fewest goals per game in a Spanish league season.

Barça keep the ball well which helps Valdés, naturally. But they also give up chances and his great specialty is the one-on-one save.

Whether he’s in the greatest form of his life right now is a moot point, as is whether he can erase the stain of that error last week with a top quality, trophy winning performance on Wednesday.

What is not open to question is his stellar part in Barcelona’s pre-eminent place in Spain and Europe over the last seven years.

Will he have Piqué and Javier Mascherano in front of him at the Bernabéu? It’s more than likely given that Puyol not only fractured his cheekbone in the 2-1 away win over Osasuna at the weekend but looked decidedly in need of match-time to sharpen some rusty edges.

It’s advantage Barcelona not only in the score line but also for the fact that Madrid have looked decidedly edgy when playing the Catalans at home since that 6-2 thrashing in 2009 which announced that the Guardiola era was something truly special

Madrid have led in five of their last seven home Clasicos going on to draw two and lose three of them – that doesn’t speak of total Barça  domination but of Madrid’s current inability to close a game off against their historic rivals, to concentrate for 90 minutes and to impose a playing style on the Catalans.

Moreover José Mourinho called the weekend’s defeat to Getafe “unacceptable” and it was. Ragged, lethargic, sloppy at the back and lacking in cutting edge up front.

Barcelona slight favourites in Supercopa second leg

However I’m supposing that the performance was unrepresentative rather than indicative that the wheels have already come off a juggernaut.

Appetites will be sharpened by the horrible prospect of Barcelona celebrating a trophy at the Bernabéu for the first time since 1997 when Sir Bobby Robson did so by winning the Cup against Betis.

José Mourinho was his assistant that day and revelled in the Catalan delight at lifting silverware at enemy HQ. He knows, precisely, how bitter that taste would be to him, his President, Madrid’s fans and the players if it came to pass tomorrow night.

Last season the final of the Copa was expected to be played at the Bernabéu again with the Barça and Athletic supporters crying out for the extra tickets at the second biggest stadium in Spain rather than at the Atlético Madrid’s Vicente Calderon where there were 30,000 fewer seats.

Try as they might the Spanish Federation couldn’t persuade President Florentino Perez to let them rent the stadium with the final word being that there were some repairs due on a few of the toilets which made it inappropriate to host the final.

Here you need to be aware that one Spanish word for the toilet is ‘Vatér’ and so the more cynical Catalan journalists dubbed Madrid’s unwillingness to risk Pep Guardiola finishing his reign by celebrating with a 14th trophy right in the heart of the Bernabéu as … Vatérgate.

Naturally.

So there are one or two reasons why Barcelona start narrow favourites to lift the first trophy of the season but I’d wager that the picture is slightly more complicated. Madrid are proud champions, have street-fighting players right across their squad and are organised by a man with proven skills at looking at bad odds and turning them in his favour.

If Victor Valdés produces his standard form then that should tip the balance in the away side’s favour. If not, if he repeats anything like his error of last week, then not only will we have another corker of a match on our hands, Barça ’s long run of dominance at the Bernabéu will be under severe threat.

  • Betting: Real Madrid v Barcelona Spanish Super Cup
  • More Graham Hunter columns 

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight into La Liga can regularly be heard on TV and radio. He will be providing regular columns for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football this season. Follow him on twitter here.


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Ronaldo and Real Madrid are pound for pound better than Manchester United. Here’s why…

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Graham Hunter byline

The Champions League is back and Real Madrid take on Manchester United at the Bernabeu on Wednesday. Graham Hunter writes for the Paddy Power Blog on why United are going to find it hard to cope with former hero Cristiano Ronaldo

When Steve McManaman produced the name of Manchester United to face Real Madrid during the Champions League knockout round draw back in December there must have been many United fans who thought the Liverpool legend had done them the first favour of his career.

Not only were Spain’s champions languishing in third place in La Liga they immediately went out and lost 3-2 at Málaga to drop 16 points behind league leaders Barcelona.

The mighty Santiago Bernabéu stadium, which Sir Alex Ferguson’s team visit on Wednesday night for the third time under the Scot’s management, had been brewing its unhappiness

Against Espanyol the match-announcer, for the first time in the ‘Special’ One’s reign, didn’t read out the phrase “… and coach, José Mourinho” at the end of the team announcement.

Why? To avoid the booing, jeering and whistling which had been growing week by week.

When Mourinho’s name was re-introduced for the next home league game, Real Sociedad, it received easily the most hostile ‘bronca’ (abuse) of his reign.

Real Madrid were in disarray

Perhaps still more encouragingly for United aficionados, one of the biggest running themes in the never-ending Real Madrid soap opera was Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘unhappiness’.

They would have easily been forgiven for thinking: ‘what better time to receive an old friend, applaud him for days of wine and roses and then spank his team’s backside?”

Ronaldo announced his nose was out of joint and that the club ‘knew why’ and he was hammered by Leo Messi in the Ballon D’Or voting having expected to win. Then came potentially the best news for United fans.

In short succession Ronaldo suffered a further twist to his troublesome right ankle, strained a leg muscle in the defeat to Granada and, most interestingly of all, had a massive blow up with Mourinho.

It came directly after the vital 2-0 home Copa del Rey win over Valencia in mid-January. Towards the end of the hard-fought victory where the visitors had scorned a hatful of chances to score, Mourinho was visibly unhappy with Ronaldo’s decision-making and positioning in the final few minutes. He shouted, he gesticulated, he returned to the dugout with steam emanating from both ears.

In the dressing room it was all off at Ludlow. Mourinho criticised Ronaldo’s work ethic, commitment to closing down the game at 2-0 and the fact that he hadn’t paid attention to the coach’s forcefully yelled instructions.

The player hit back with justified comments about the nerve it took to hammer him when he stepped up to support his beleaguered manager on every possible occasion – on the pitch, in the media and during some notable goal celebrations – when powerful journalists and growing number of fans were attacking him.

But however attractive all these details are to those at United who yearn to return to Wembley, scene of the club’s first European Cup in 1968 and a place which now needs some reparation after the most comprehensive defeat of Sir Alex’s entire 26-year reign, against Barcelona in 2011, the fact is that all that glitters is not gold.

Against this backdrop of confusion, aggression, doubt and a title weakly defended Ronaldo has been utterly and absolutely sublime. The worse things get, the better he performs.

Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates

In the 10 games since the Champions League draw was made in Nyon Ronaldo has scored 13 times, including three hat-tricks.

What is most admirable is that while others have let their form peak and trough like the graph on a lie detector in the manager’s office at a horsemeat plant, Ronaldo has always led from the front.

At Granada in a 1-0 defeat his team stunk the house out. But his work ethic and his attitude proved that he’s unwilling to accept the vagaries of form or fitness.  Even when literally nothing is going for him he’s still up for it.

For a player of that talent, wealth and achievement to be in a side so fractured that they barely even got one effort on goal against a team which was nearly relegated last season must have been frustrating beyond words.

But his attitude, play and goal record is extremely reminiscent of that 2007/8 season at United when he won the title, the Champions League, Ballon D’Or and FIFA World Player.

Ronaldo is carrying Madrid

Some months before Ronaldo banged out 42 goals during that amazing season Carlos Queiroz told a friend of mine that United planned to use Ronaldo as a central striker a great deal in the coming 12 months.

Partly because Sir Alex Ferguson and Queiroz thought he could become an effective new weapon, partly to free Wayne Rooney to play on the left but partly because ‘Cristiano needs to have the ceiling raised, he needs a challenge because he’s so, so talented that, otherwise, he’ll get bored or hit a comfort zone’.

It proved to be a dazzling idea. Ronaldo carried an ankle problem all that season, often phoned his friend and former fitness coach Walter Di Salvo to vent his frustration at having to carry an injury and at having to play ‘out of position’.

But adversity was his stimulus. The tougher the going, the more he produced.

So it is at the moment. His form is such that he’s carrying the team. No question.

His determination, his goals and his naked ambition to win Real Madrid the ‘Decima’ (their 10th Champions Cup) have converted the Bernabéu faithful, previously a little chilly and underwhelmed by his manner, into an adoring public.

His name is now, finally, chanted, the front cover of Marca proclaims him the new Alfredo Di Stefano, his overall team play is superior to that at United and the goal flow is prodigious.

The three which destroyed Sevilla at the weekend take him beyond the legendary Paco Gento (six European Cup winners’s medals) to sixth in Real Madrid’s all-time scoring list – after three and a half seasons!

He has 182 goals in 179 competitive matches and now only Hugo Sánchez, Ferenc Puskas, Santillana, Di Stéfano and Raúl are ahead of him – but nobody on that list has scored at a better goal per appearance rate.

‘The fact that the Bernabéu is finally singing my name, that the ‘feeling’ has changed is a dream come true for me’, Ronaldo told AS last week.

‘The support has taken note that I give body and soul for this club and the amount of affection and appreciation I now get on the street, at the games and from fans in the media touches me. I can really feel that the Bernabéu has taken me as one of ‘their own’ now.

‘It still surprises me that I was viewed and treated differently before because I’ve not changed. It’s just that more people have focussed on how much I give to the team, how determined I am to win the ‘Decima’ and set aside other, less important things.

‘I’m even noticing fewer insults and fewer chants of ‘Cristiano we hope you die’ at other grounds around the country. I can’t please all the people all the time – not even God manages that. It’s part of a big change since I told the President that I was unhappy here. I’m enjoying my football, I like playing with these team mates and I swear on my son’s life that when I was sad it was never, under any circumstances, to do with money.

‘As for what happened with the manager, the things which happen in the dressing room stay there. “It’s a personal matter which is now all sorted out – everything’s fine’.

Jose Mourinho

As for the utter nonsense people used to trot out about Ronaldo not being a ‘big game’ player it’s worth noting that he’s made scoring against Barcelona a personal domain in recent Clásicos, he perpetually puts Atlético Madrid to the sword in derby matches, he hit two goals and an assist while Madrid were knocked out of the Champions League semi-final by Bayern Munich last season and this term he’s the competition’s leading scorer.

In a variety of interviews Ronaldo has made it clear that he thinks Madrid, pound for pound, are better than United but that they have to ‘go out and prove it’.

Fair point.

The loss of a world class keeper like Iker Casillas who has yet to taste defeat in four games against United, is a negative. But Diego López, signed from Sevilla, was once a very firm target for United themselves after playing them twice in the Champions League for Villarreal and not conceding a goal.

Equally, part of Ronaldo’s assertion may stem from his manager’s record against Sir Alex. Mourinho, with Porto, Chelsea and Inter has gone head to head with the United boss in 13 League, Champions League, Cup or League cup matches winning six, drawing five and losing only twice.

One key element for United, in this evenly balanced tie, is how they attack in Madrid. Any team, literally anyone, who is caught upfield and allows even this rather fractured version of Mourinho’s Madrid to break at speed will be punished.

Ronaldo, too, is at his absolute best when careering away upfield in a one v two or two v three battle just like 2007/8 at United.

If England’s champions-elect can defend, press and keep possession with calm and intelligence and not be caught on the counter then it’ll be over to Ronaldo to produce something special in order for Madrid to take an advantage to Manchester.

On his current form you might be wise not to bet against that happening.

Betting: Real Madrid v Manchester United
[Web bet click here | Mobile bet click here]

United v Madrid MBS


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[video] Graham Hunter gives 3 reasons why Real Madrid will beat Manchester United (and a 40/1 tip)

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La Liga expert and all-round good guy Graham Hunter put in a Skype call with the Paddy Power Blog on Sunday night. We asked Graham where he saw the value in the betting for Manchester United vs Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday night at Old Trafford. As you’d expect from someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time watching Spanish football, he’s got a few interesting insights ahead of the game….

[Scroll down to watch video]

1. It’s got something to do with a former favourite son at Anfield

Xabi Alonso

IN THE THICK OF IT: Expect some heated exchanges from former Anfield hero Xabi Alonso

2. A little bit of this fella, of course

Ronaldo

THE MAIN MAN: There’s only one reason Real Madrid forked out on Ronaldo

3. …and might well finish with these

Wayne Rooney

ON THE SPOT: Let’s hope Manchester United have been practicing penalties. Real have…

Graham Hunter’s tip: Real Madrid to beat Manchester United on penalties @ 40/1 click here

MAN-UTD_REAL-MADRID_MBS


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Champions League Betting – Real Madrid v Manchester United

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Cristiano RonaldoThe toughest test in European football happens tonight in the Champions League round of 16 tie between Real Madrid and Manchester United. Dubbed two of the best football teams in the world, with two of the best managers, and probably more than two of the best players, the whole world will be watching how this pans out.

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La Liga Betting Preview – Real Sociedad v Barcelona

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Lionel MessiReal Sociedad host the best team in La Liga this evening as Barcelona travel to the Basque country. The Catalans will no doubt hope to extend their record-breaking league run against the San Sebastian based team after being held to a draw by Malaga at home in the Copa del Rey last week.

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Real Madrid v Valencia – Copa Del Rey Betting Preview

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Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid are hosting Valencia for the first leg of their Copa Del Rey quarter-final fixture tonight, in what should be an exciting clash. Real Madrid will be welcoming back Cristiano Ronaldo with open arms along with Antonia Adan, and they are our hot 4/11 favourite to have success.

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