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Graham Hunter: David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny

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Between the media and La Roja’s world champion players there has been much invoking of ‘four years ago’ over the last four days.

Back in South Africa, of course, Spain became the first team in history to win this trophy having lost the opening game.

En route to escaping the group the coincidence is that La Roja also needed to beat Chile back then, and did so.

David Villa (R) celebrates scoring first goal with Xabi Alonso (L) and Xavi 25/6/2010 00439885

COMETH THE HOUR: David Villa wheels away after scoring against Chile in 2010

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Thus it’s only natural, journalistically at least, for some to reach for comparisons and draw positive conclusions.

But there’s a snag.

  • Four years ago Spain lost 1-0 to Switzerland having totally dominated the game, shot at goal 24 times, put eight efforts on target, won 12 corners and suffered defeat only because it was one of those days when, as they say in La Liga, ‘the ball didn’t want to go in’.

Last Friday they were thrashed.

Four years ago Vicente Del Bosque’s men had Honduras, frankly a soft touch, as their second group rivals, and Chile third.

Chile also decided to abandon competitive football for the last 15 minutes of that game in Pretoria because they were sure that their progression was safe given the scoreline between Switzerland and Honduras and, at all costs, they didn’t want to surrender more goals to Spain. Del Bosque later called it the most placid 15 minutes of his tournament.

But let me remind anyone who’s forgotten the other parts of that game were anything but. Chile pressed and harassed like attack-dogs for the first chunk of the match, making their opponents feel like Marcelo Bielsa had somehow deployed 15 men on the pitch.

I fear it will be similar at the Maracana.

So, back to invoking the spirit of South Africa. I think it’s natural, but flawed.

Jean Beausejour (L) and Xabi Alonso in action 25/6/2010 00439884

SEEING RED: I’d expect this to be an aggressive game, in tackling and attacking

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There are very few similarities and, already, del Bosque needs to be looking for men who are not stuck in the past – men of destiny.

The last two results in Brazil, defeated 3-0 by Brazil in the Confeds Cup a year ago and humiliated 5-1 in Salvador last week, have left La Roja looking like victims.

The air of invincibility has been stripped and, suddenly, those who cowered back will be queuing up to show that they are now the ‘fastest gun’.

It was ever thus. However ‘great’ you are/were, once the young bucks are after you the past counts for nothing.

As far as the world and European champions’ prospects go, Chile have one central tenet which is both welcome and threatening: they like to attack.

Spain have for the longest time been sick of teams who ‘park the bus’.

Those who attack La Roja reap benefits

The paradox is that the last two sides who have really ‘got after’ La Roja – Brazil and Holland – have reaped major benefits.

Xabi Alonso, Pedro, Juan Mata – each of them over the last 24 hours has spoken about the fact that Chile are a brave, daring and attacking side.

The word ‘aggressive’ has been used repeatedly too – all of which leads you to suppose that this might be yet another toe-to-toe match in this slugfest of a World Cup.

Good value for the fans.

They mean ‘aggressive’ in both senses of the word. In football terms every ball is a prisoner, energy is spent trying to overrun opponents and the team likes to buzz towards the opponent’s goal.

But they play by street rules.

Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal after scoring 5/6/2014 00817155

DANGER MEN: Chile’s Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal

In the last three games against Spain, Chile have seen three red cards, two of which came in a relatively unimportant friendly which really boiled over.

Perhaps that was because having never beaten La Roja and having been 2-0 up in St Gallen, Switzerland, Chile were horrified at being hauled back and overtaken 3-2 in Autumn 2011.

It was one of those games which proved to Vicente del Bosque that the effects of the ‘Clásico war’ were dying down and the feeling of ‘all for one’ had been re-established between his players. They went on to prove him right by winning Euro 2012.

There was a moment in that game when Iniesta was being bullied at the edge of the pitch by Arturo Vidal. Instantly two pretty entrenched rivals, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Busquets, joined forces to rush across and ‘dive in’ on Iniesta’s behalf.

Danger men

There may be traces of that on Wednesday night. Players to watch for would include Iniesta who’s scored twice against Chile in the last three meetings and Eduardo Vargas. Vargas scored twice to rescue Chile in a pre-tournament friendly against Egypt which they threatened to lose and has also scored three times against Spain in the last three meetings.

By the day, training has gone from ghostly silent to boisterous and intense. The impact of the defeat against Holland was there, plain to see, but it has dissipated.

The words from del Bosque’s men have been bellicose. They want their pride restored, they want to get out of this group and, frankly, they think they will beat Chile.

I suspect they will. But this is one of those matches when if things go wrong, if nerves (of which there will be plenty) gnaw away at precision and confidence then the playing field will be pretty even.

David Villa

  • Betting: David Villa 9/5 to score anytime against Chile >

If David Villa doesn’t start then I’ll be confused. In training he’s looked sharper and sharper, he’s been scoring goals and right now he looks to be not only Spain’s all-time leading scorer but their most in-form striker.

This is a tournament for athletes. The weather, the tiredness of long flights – these are elements which give a premium to those who are strong, fast and quick to recover. As such there has to be a place, soon, for Javi Martínez in Spain’s attempts to retain their trophy.

This is a battle for survival. Expect the niceties to be abandoned. David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny.

Graham Hunter is the author of ‘Spain: The Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ and ‘Barca’. You can follow him on Twitter here

 

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Spain retaining their World Cup is a Hollywood fairytale, and there’s a good chance of a happy ending

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I guess that if a script-writer proposed a film treatment of how Spain retained the World Cup to a Beverly Hills mogul right now he’d get dog’s abuse for lacking any grip on reality and be blacklisted for taking hallucinogenic substances.

A fantasy too improbable even for Hollywood. Unless the creative kid knocked on the door of Casa Bumper Graham up on Laurel Drive.

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It’s all understandable – just wrong.

First, the hurdles. Unless you see them and plan for them  you can’t jump them.

Spain, and all the European countries, have their major rival as Brazil. Not the team, the country. Only if you’ve researched well, planned well and probably employed a few Brazilian movers and shakers to make things  move and shake for you will any side from this continent stand a chance.

Brazil-fans-celebrate

The country is vast, diverse, challenging, hot, humid, rainy and a kind of Club 18-30 for mosquitos. This is where the crazy, 24-hour, tequila-fuelled mossies go to party. And I mean Paaaartaaaayy!

But, here, Spain have a tiny advantage. The Confeds Cup wasn’t a thing of beauty and joy for ever as far as Spain was concerned. Hotel problems, travel problems, humidity problems, social disorder and a spanking from Brazil in the final. But La Roja, these days, are astute learners. They’ve honed down the take-home messages, planned for them and having a ‘set’ base in Curitiba is like catnip to them. European autumnal weather, privacy. It’s the laboratory from which the tournament win will be planned. Last summer they were constantly on the road from game to game. Not this time.

The fact that there are young, hungry, athletic squads in the way of the reigning champions is another jab to the Spanish solar plexus. Holland is one, awaiting in the banana-skin first group game – Brazil another.

However this is where the Spanish talent factory has functioned. Yes, the vets will be vital. Del Bosque needs big tournaments from Iniesta (30) Alonso (32) and Casillas (33) – Xavi we will come back to. Nevertheless the ‘relevo’ is in place.

Iniesta-Celebrates-Spain

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The relief watch. In England and in Spain you’d find few, only the lame of brain, who denied that two of the players of the season were Cesar Azpilicueta and ‘Koke’. Add Jordi Alba, Diego Costa and Javi Martínez and you get a clutch of 22-25 year old talents, three of whom making their debut in a major tournament, whose talent, energy and ‘major’ experience at club level can make an enormous difference to whether or not Spain retain this trophy.

Which is where the Xavi factor comes in. It’s not a sin that, aged 34, his athleticism has changed. What Del Bosque must manage, brilliantly, is how and when to use him. Go back over the last three tournament wins and the assessment of how brilliant Xavi has been changes with retrospect compared to some of the stuff I heard spouted in real time.

But teams target him, try to pressurise him in possession and count on him NOT tracking back thus leaving opposition teams with 3 v 2 or 4 v 3 situations. Believe me, he will not be alone in putting in a few 55-65 minute matches this tournament. The concept of all the major players in any team, with the possible exception of Brazil, winning a tournament while consistently playing 90 minutes is, I think, anathema to this country’s size, geography and climate.

The key creative men will rack up several ‘impact’ performances – either the first hour or the last thirty minutes. Which is where Spain will miss Jesús Navas more than most people have appreciated. He was Del Bosque’s ‘go-to’ man. On the hour, almost every hour, he’d come on and wreak ‘Road-Runner’ havoc. For the manager this little fella is a gigantic loss. More emphasis, now, on the pace of Pedro and the potential ‘impact’ of players like Cesc Fabregas, Juan Mata and Santi Cazorla.

Fabregas-and-Silva-Spain

Then there is Spain’s often ineptly described playing style.

Asking La Roja to play with fizzing, daring brilliance is like letting a mugger put his hands round Adele’s larynx then asking her voice to soar and inspire. Teams routinely try to asphyxiate them, bank after bank of defense and fouls. But IF La Roja keep the ball well and make other teams work/chase in this humidity then the last 15-20 minutes of matches will yield even more Spain goals than normal.

Champions routinely go out in the group stage of the next edition of their tournament – check France in 2002, Greece in 2008, Italy in 2010. Spain have a nasty wee group but if they navigate those choppy waters then they possess a ruthless knockout mentality and …. reach the final.

Someone call Hollywood.

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Graham Hunter: Why Barcelona have laboured lately, but things can work in their favour for El Clasico

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El Clasico, Sunday 8pm, Sky Sports 1

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Those who thought, a couple of weeks ago, that this Clasíco was shaping up like a premium Mike Tyson versus an eight stone weakling may see no reason at all to change their mind.

It’s just a fortnight since Barcelona put in what must be their worst league performance since January 2003 (then it was a 3-0 away defeat to Racing Santander, this time a pathetic display in losing 1-0 to Valladolid) and the reigning champions have only 12 out of a possible 21 points in recent matches.

Set that against Real Madrid’s relentless treatment of every kind of rival, Copa, Champions League and La Liga and this was shaping up as a mis-match.

But not for me the hoary old chestnut that ‘anything can happen’ in a ‘derby’ or a ‘Clasíco’ – there are a clutch of specific, interesting factors which while Madrid may deserve to remain favourites, narrow the gap.

blog_el-clasico-stats

Firstly the pride of the Barcelona players has been horribly wounded. Not, for once, by criticism from the media and fans but because they, as a group, fully realized that the level of commitment, attitude and effort they showed at Valladolid was totally unacceptable.

Both the victories since then, beating Manchester City 2-1 and thumping Osasuna 7-0, have been cathartic.

Key players performed with zest, concentration, energy and aggression.

Both, granted, were at the Camp Nou where Barcelona’s vulnerability has been dramatically less evident.

But tied with the recent wins at Sevilla and City there was evidence that the absolutely crucial remnants of Barcelona’s golden era are locked and loaded – Messi, Iniesta, Valdés in particular.

It isn’t quite stating the obvious as much as once would have been the case, but Messi is the key.

Mess-ter and Commander

His performances in 2014, since he lost the Ballon D’Or to Cristiano Ronaldo, have been a strange mix. When he’s played listlessly he’s either scored or assisted. When he, and the team, have hit top gear, he’s looked brilliant once more.

Historically he loves this match. The Argentinian has 18 goals in 26 meetings with Madrid, one more and he’ll pinch the all time record off his countryman Alfredo Di Stefano (30 Clasícos).

This calendar year in 17 matches, all competitions, he’s scored 17 times and made seven more.

This, just when people were beginning to question his appetite, his zip and his mood.

One might argue that Sky Sports bringing us the genius of Ronaldo and Messi every weekend has only taught the dullards to be quixotic and impatient rather than appreciative and wise.

But attentive Messi-watchers should have learned something else.

He always insists that no matter his prolific scoring, no matter that he produces lava-hot spurts of play which take a match away from any rival of any class he relies on a team performance.

He doesn’t think he produces one-man-wins, nor does he want anyone else to think that.

blog_messi-clasico

Martino, just as against City, needs to be smart enough to unite Cesc, Iniesta, Xavi and Busquets in the same starting XI.

If he doesn’t, if he thinks that a three man midfield and three out-and-out strikers will suffice in a 4-3-3 v 4-3-3 battle then Madrid will win, I’m sure of that.

As Time Goes Bye …

More, I think there’s the ‘old showman’ factor.

This is guaranteed to be Victor Valdés’ last Liga Clasíco – already stubborn as a mule, he’ll give extra to ensure that it isn’t a defeat.

Whether or not Puyol makes the squad everyone around him will be conscious that this, too, is not ‘au-revoir’ but adieu. For good.

There’s an all for one one for all spirit to this squad. He’s held in reverential affection by those around him – again, there’ll be an extra effort.

Xavi has a deal until 2016 but there’s pressure on his services for next season. Perhaps he’ll stay, only he knows. But IF he knows this might be his final Bernabéu appointment then watch him attempt to switch his ‘passometer’ into overdrive.

None of these factors win matches on their own, but they narrow the gap.

Then there is the lack of the ‘fear factor’. Most of these Barcelona players have played in the majority of their club’s last ten visits to the Bernabéu.

Those matches have yielded five wins, three draws and two defeats. A remarkable record.

Real Improvement

None of this is to detract from Real Madrid’s status as favourites. They are four points ahead for a good reason. Carlo Ancelotti’s team haven’t lost in any competition since the 2-1 defeat to Barça back in October. The swing in their favour has been ten points since then.

For months now they have been pressing the ball with more co-ordination and energy than Barça, they have been quick and accurate in their use of the ball.

Thus far this has been Ronaldo’s season, not Messi’s. Not only is his goal tally outrageous – closer to fifty than thirty – he’s forming a wonderful partnership with Bale who keeps on serving him assists.

More, Ronaldo has long since learned to love ‘bullying’ Barcelona.

Having failed to score in his first five games against them for Madrid and Manchester United he’s subsequently hit 12 in 17 Clasícos.

blog_ronaldo-clasico

Headers, breakaways, subtle touches, shots from distance, penalties – the full repertoire. Barcelona’s only successful tactic against Ronaldo is, just as when Spain play Portugal, is to stop the ball getting to him. (Back to that four man midfield and trying to get a head-lock on possession) if they fail to do that it’s almost guaranteed he’ll score again.

Tired old excuses or a Real worry?

But if there’s a case to make that the gap between the two sides has narrowed then it might pay to heed the regular references over the last two and half weeks which Ancelotti has made to ‘tiredness’ and the ‘recuperation’ of his players.

Also to the fact that one or two Madrid players, Pepe and Di Maria, have been hit by high temperatures and allergies this week.

Last weekend in Malaga there was a drop-off in creativity and intensity and while some of Ancelotti’s key men were initially rested against Schalke on Wednesday Xabi Alonso (so vital), Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo were not while Bale and Dani Carvajal were required to come on.

Should Madrid need a tiger in their tank, however, it’s the knowledge that they defeated Barcelona three times last season, twice at home once away, and three points this weekend will almost certainly put the defending champions out of the title race.

Some value? Well, Real Madrid scored four headers, spread between Rafa Varane, Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo, in last season’s Clasícos.

Spare a thought for Barça’s defenders, too. Widely lambasted when the fault is often the lack of pressing by players in front of them it’s still the case that Carles Puyol, Eric Abidal and Jordi Alba have all scored Clasíco goals in the last couple of seasons and …. Dani Alves recently scored in each leg of the Champions League tie against Manchester City. Fancy it?

Ref justice

The referee: his decisions distinctly helped Barcelona last October (denying Ronaldo a clear penalty) but still Martino’s players absolutely distrust him. Their hackles will be up and they’ll be in ‘protest’ mode from the get-go.

This despite the fact that with Undiano Mallenco Barcelona has a lower loss % than Madrid do under him; their rivals see massively more bookings with him (Barça 98 yellows:opponents 125 yellows) than is the case when he refs Madrid (RM 133:134 opponents), his penalty ratio goes the same way (Barça 9:3 opponents while Real Madrid 9:7 opponents). But the Barça players think he’s too slow to book, too liberal with foul-play as a tactic .. and I’d say nobody will feel a fool for taking a long look at the odds for penalties and red cards.

But to make a long story short. If Barcelona control the ball they’ll go home with no worse than a draw … and still in the title chase. If Martino selects the wrong starting XI then sit back and watch Madrid boss midfield and pick off their historic rivals.

It’s dangerous picking a winner in a game of such tight margins, but all things considered, I’m going for Barca to win it by a single goal.

Graham’s bet

Barcelona to win by exactly one goal – 4/1
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Graham Hunter: Why, if Barcelona get their tactics wrong, Man City can punish them

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It’s odd after the Catalan euphoria of a 0-2 win at the Etihad in the first leg that subsequent power-plays by the two Madrid clubs (Atletico 5-1 winners over Milan, Real Madrid 6-1 up on Schalke) that Barça somehow profile as the ‘weak’ man of the Spanish Champions League trio.

The aura which they re-established that night in Manchester, whispering reminiscences of better times gone by, has been dissipated by subsequent horror-shows in La Liga.

Add the fact that it’s now palpably clear that Mauricio Pellegrini should have dictated a faster-paced, high-pressure, high-up-the-pitch strategy in the first leg (patented in Barça defeats by Valladolid and Real Sociedad) and there’s the whiff of a shock drifting over the Camp Nou.

Manuel PellegriniTwitter

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Vincent Kompany, all seriousness and articulate football analysis in the press room of the Camp Nou on Tuesday, very evidently felt that football inherently provides great nights, great shocks like City will need but also warned that at the first sign of complacency from the visitors that Barcelona are easy meat and ‘the beast might awake’.

Those who favour City will talk about Barcelona’s defence. It’s not a false point but I think it also misses the key issue. It’s in midfield where Barcelona have begun to be over-run.

Attack is the best form of defence

When the Catalans were at their very best the defence began with the front three – perm from Pedro, Leo Messi, Samuel Etoo, Thierry Henry and David Villa.

For opposition defenders it was simply less hassle to get shot of the ball than put up with Blaugrana strikers, backed up by midfielders or wing backs, nipping and snarling around their heels.

By definition this meant that the midfield was almost always on the front foot.

Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Yaya Touré and Seydou Keita et al were constantly picking up the scraps of possession won by the front three relatively high up the pitch and immediately pressing the advantage the way that the forward line pressed the ball – with urgency and intelligence.

All of this meant that with predictable regularity the majority of the defending which Barcelona’s back line did was based on anticipating trouble coming, reading it, intercepting it and, more regularly than right now as teams score from set plays or shoot early, relying on Victor Valdes making one-on-one saves when the defensive line was penetrated.

Etoo Iniesta and Pique celebrate

Currently neither of the two lines in front of them are protecting the Barça defence the way they once did.

While I would argue that both Dani Alves and Javier Mascherano are making consistently flawed decisions on positioning and when/when not to  tackle, the impression that the roof is falling in on the Barcelona back four is exacerbated by: how much extra work they are having to cope with; what their role was originally constructed by Pep Guardiola to be (largely offensive) and how deep they feel obliged to play.

Which leads to the fundamental decision facing Tata Martino with regards to team selection, team formation and the philosophy of how to control this tie tonight.

tata martino

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By his own admission after the first leg against City the cluster of matches (Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad and the match in Manchester) not only had the Spanish champions played well, controlled matches won with style or qualified for the Cup Final (against Real Sociedad), Barcelona had managed to concede very few chances on goal.

Part of his success was to tamper with the outright 4-3-3 formation, where the front three are all pure strikers, and to ensure that as often as possible Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Sergio Busquets and Cesc Fabregas are united in the same team.

More, when either Iniesta or Cesc is named in the front three but, effectively performs like an (attacking) midfielder Barcelona’s shape is 4-4-2 or, when the full backs push on, 3-5-2.

Absolutely Fabregas – Cesc has to start

The centre of the pitch is well-worked, possession is circulated, the ball is dominated, Barcelona introduce a sense of calm and control, the defence returns to reading and anticipating (rather than dealing with the roof falling in over their heads) fewer corners are conceded (vital) and Tata Martino’s side become formidable once more.

Yet something in the Argentinian seems to dare him to ignore the obvious. In their two horror defeats, to Real Sociedad in the league and then Valladolid last weekend, he has opted for three out and out strikers, left the midfield denuded – and been whupped for his troubles.

If Martino gets his selection right – Xavi, Cesc, Busquets and Iniesta must all start – then whatever the result on the night you can bet your bottom dollar that the home side will qualify.

IF his tactical statement (as he postulated on Tuesday) is ‘we are Barça, we are at home, we play 4-3-3 as a point of principal’ then City can smack their lips and approach the match with relish.

Silva and Aguero celebrate

Martino has at his disposal a tiring, ageing, but nonetheless 24 karat group of footballers who are hugely stung by their recent losses and how they are being savagely criticised here in Catalunya (and Madrid) expect a reaction.

Note, please, that Barcelona limited City’s corners in the first leg. And that their marking scheme had Gerard Piqué free on the edge of the six yard box and Dani Alves paired with Alvaro Negredo.

I saw Negredo last week at the Calderon when a Brazilian-born striker, Diego Costa, relegated him to the Spain bench for the entire 90 minutes against Italy. He wasn’t chuffed. He’s found goals hard to produce in the last seven matches but is ideally shaped to end that here.

Negredo to notch a header, both teams to score but, if Martino isn’t stubborn and simply reads the runes correctly with four midfielders, Barcelona to do no worse than draw. And to proceed.

Mind you, as Kompany correctly points out, ‘football is great because it routinely provides remarkable nights when remarkable things happen’.

Stay tuned.

Hunter’s Punts

Negredo to score at anytime: 3/1
Both teams to score: 4/7
Both teams to score and Barca to win: 17/10 – or – Both teams to score and draw: 4/1

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England to upset their hosts

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England fans might have just recovered from the stress of Friday’s thrilling 3-2 win over Sweden in time for Tuesday’s crunch Group D encounter with co-hosts Ukraine (90 minutes). Roy Hodgson’s men need just a point to go through to the quarter-finals but England fans will know it may not be that simple. Will Roy’s boys make it through or crash and burn?

The permutations of England’s game in Donestk on Tuesday are fairly simple: avoid defeat and reach the quarter-finals, bettering the expectations of some supporters. Loss and come home early with your tails between your legs again.

While the two performances by the Three Lions to date have been far from convincing they have produced the necessary results and that is all that matters at this point.

Whether we will see a return to a cautious approach by England in the last group game is up for debate, Hodgson keeping his cards close to his chest when it comes to his plans for Ukraine. The England coach is more than likely going to restore Wayne Rooney to his starting XI for the game, meaning either Danny Welbeck or Andy Carroll will drop to the bench.

Both players performed well against Sweden and Hodgson will have to weigh up whether he wants the physical presence of Carroll or the pace and trickier of Welbeck. Either way, Rooney is likely to play just off whoever starts up front and should make the difference against the co-hosts.

No doubt it will be a hostile atmosphere in Donestk but England came through something similar on Friday when the Swedes outnumbered the English 3-to-1 in Kiev. The Three Lions have the edge in terms of history as well, winning three out of the four meetings. However, they did lose their most recent clash against Ukraine in 2010 in a World Cup qualifier.

The Ukraines are 5/2 to secure the three points they need to make it through to the next round, with a repeat of their 1-0 win over England two years ago priced at 9/1. Hodgsons team are 6/5 and the draw 9/4 (match betting).

The draw seems like the most likely outcome in this one, especially with Ukraine’s main threat Andriy Shevchenko a doubt for the game. Some critics may say England lack strength in depth but the fact the Ukrainians are still relying on 35-year-old Shevchenko to get the goals speaks volumes about the state of their team.

The former Chelsea man has scored all of his nation’s goals in the tournament thus far and without him you struggle to see Ukraine getting more than one, even with England’s issues with set pieces.

Rooney is bound to want to prove a point and as such you’d fancy him to pop up with a goal. The Manchester United striker is 13/8 to score anytime and 9/2 to break the deadlock first. It seems to be inevitable that game will be an ugly contest given the lack of skill both teams possess. However, Rooney could prove to be the one bit of quality England need to edge it.

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Terriers to get their teeth into Dons

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The Football League play-offs continue on Saturday with two huge matches as in League One Huddersfield Town look to secure a positive result at MK Dons, while in League Two Southend United aim to do the same at Crewe Alexandra.

Simon Grayson takes his Terriers to Stadium MK in a 12.30pm kick-off on Saturday for a game which will bring together two sides who were separated by just one place and one point in the final league table.

The fact Huddersfield took forth spot means they will have home advantage in the second leg, so the emphasis is on picking up a result to take back to West Yorkshire on Tuesday.

Huddersfield are no strangers to the end-of-season lottery, having won promotion via this route in 1995 and 2004 respectively, while this is their third successive attempt to reach the Championship.

They travel south in good form against MK Dons having not lost to them in seven matches stretching back to August 2008, with six wins and two draws from their 12 League One encounters.

Grayson, who has pedigree in the play-offs having been a winner as a player with Leicester in 1994 and 1996, and then took Blackpool up to the Championship in 2007, will have the League One’s prolific top scorer Jordan Rhodes (15/2 – 2 Or More Match Goalscorer) back in the side after he was rested for the final two matches.

Lee Novak or Kallum Higginbotham will miss out, while fellow striker Alan Lee is back in contention after shaking off a knee injury.

MK Dons boss Karl Robinson is looking to lead the club to the Championship for the first time since the change from Wimbledon back in 2004.

His side were looking set to go into the play-offs on a real high, but a final-day defeat against Walsall scuppered their hopes of making it five successive wins.

The Dons are also in their second successive play-off bid and have lost all three they have been involved in so far at the semi-final stage, so the omens are not good.

Defender Gary MacKenzie could be back following an illness, while Alan Smith (10/1 – First Goalscorer), who is on loan from Newcastle, is set to retain his place behind a front two of Dean Bowditch and Charlie MacDonald.

Nothing could divide the sides in the two regular season fixtures as they both ended 1-1, but Huddersfield may have the slight edge and take a slender lead back home for the second leg.

Prediction: Huddersfield Away 90 Minutes @ 23/10.

Value Bet: Huddersfield To Win 2-1 Correct Score @ 11/1.

League Two

Southend United must pick themselves up at Gresty Road in the 5.30pm kick-off after narrowly missing out on automatic promotion last Saturday when Crawley Town snatched third place by just a point.

The Shrimpers finished three places and 11 points better off than rivals Crewe, while their final day 2-0 win against Macclesfield at Roots Hall meant they ended the campaign on a great run of four wins, a draw and five successive clean sheets.

They also have history on their side with 13 promotions via the play-offs which makes them the most successful side to be promoted via this route.

Boss Paul Sturrock has a near fully-fit squad to choose from, so will head north optimistic that his players can take their good run of form into the match.

Crewe will be no pushovers, though, as they ended the regular season on the back of a 16-match unbeaten run – seven wins and nine draws – which was enough to snatch the seventh and final play-off spot.

Ironically Alex’s last defeat was against Saturday’s opponent’s Southend as the versatile Bilel Mohsni (10/1 – 2 or More Match Goalscorer) scored the only goal at Roots Hall on February 18 to add to the brace he scored in the Shrimpers’ 3-1 win at Gresty Road in October.

Boss Steve Davis‘ hopes of gaining revenge for being doubled in the season will not be helped if skipper Dave Artell does not shake off a foot injury suffered in training.

But Ashley Westwood has not suffered any setbacks to his foot injury and is in line to feature as Crewe aim to improve on just one successful promotion in five previous attempts in the play-offs.

However, looking at the statistics, Southend were unfortunate to go up automatically and coupled with their excellent run of form, they should have too much for Crewe and come out on top in this one.

Prediction: Southend Away 90 Minutes @ 7/4.

Value Bet: Southend To Win 2-0 Correct Score @ 12/1.

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In-form Milan to earn their Spurs

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The Champions League returns this week with two games on Tuesday night and Tottenham face another trip to the San Siro, this time to take on seven-time winners of the competition AC Milan (both 22/1 in the outright betting) in the first leg of their last-16 clash, while Valencia also host Schalke at the Mestalla.

AC Milan v Spurs

These two sides enjoyed contrasting fortunes in the group stages with Spurs defying all the doubters to win Group A which included defending champions Inter, losing just one game and ending the phase as the tournament’s joint-leading scorers with 18.

Milan, though, made it through as a runner-up to Real Madrid with the fewest number of points as a qualifier, just eight, while they were the joint-lowest scorers of those teams that made it after mustering just seven goals.

The Italian powerhouse have struggled against English opposition since last lifting the trophy in 2007, having been beaten at this stage by Arsenal in 2008 and Manchester United by an aggregate 7-2 last year, while they were also held to a draw by Portsmouth in the UEFA Cup group stages in 2008/09.

However, it is hard to see that run continuing this week and Milan look good value at 8/11 in the match betting to at least establish a first-leg lead with a win.

Milan have found their form since the turn of the year and are unbeaten in 2011, preparing for this clash with a 4-0 demolition of Parma at the San Siro last Saturday to maintain a three-point lead at the top of Serie A as the Rossoneri look for their first domestic league title since 2004.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic (4/1 to score the first goal) has found a new lease of life at Milan, leading the goal-scoring charts with 18 for the season, and will head a quality attacking triumvirate alongside the Brazilian duo of Alexandre Pato and Robinho.

There are one or two injury worries for coach Massimiliano Allegri as Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini are ruled out, while January arrivals Antonio Cassano, Mark van Bommel and Urby Emanuelson are cup-tied.

However, Spurs have greater problems over selection despite the return of Rafael van der Vaart and will struggle to contain the Rossoneri on Tuesday.

Gareth Bale’s impressive performances against Inter in the group stages catapulted him into the transfer limelight but he has been ruled out of the first leg as he has not recovered from a back problem.

Although the Wales ace scored a hat-trick on Spurs’ last trip to the San Siro, it should be worth noting that the visitors were played off the park in the first half, trailing 4-0 at the break, and ultimately lost the match, albeit 4-3.

Playmaker Luka Modric is also a major doubt following appendicitis, Peter Crouch is struggling with a back injury and Jermaine Jenas is suspended – while Tom Huddlestone, Ledley King and Younes Kabboul are long-term absentees.

Spurs go into the game on the back of a three-match Premier League winning streak but have been eking out results rather than dominating – and look set to struggle against an in-form Milan outfit.

Valencia v Schalke 04

Valencia do not boast a great record against German opposition but are the form side going into this encounter and look worthy 7/10 favourites in the match betting on Tuesday, with Schalke on offer at 18/5 and the draw at 13/5.

Los Che have failed to win any of their last six home games against German sides, drawing five and losing one, with Schalke holding the hosts to a goalless affair in 2007/08 in the Champions League group stages.

However, Unai Emery’s men have gone on a six match-winning streak since a 4-2 reverse against Villarreal in the Copa del Rey and have now climbed to third in the table.

Schalke’s form domestically has been erratic, although they have been creeping up the table after an awful start to the campaign.

Felix Magath’s men were able to put their Bundesliga troubles behind them in the group stages, topping Group B after winning four matches and losing just one.

Valencia’s recent form has been too good to ignore though, and after warming up with a 2-1 at Atletico Madrid, they are expected to edge a low-scoring affair (Under 2.5 goals at 8/13).

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