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Graham Hunter: La Liga is on the brink but I’m ready to strike with a 28/1 acca this weekend

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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.

There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm

David Moyes

  •  Shoot over to all the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.

Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.

Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.

From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.

And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.

Barcelona-800

Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.

A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.

Squad Rotation

There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.

Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.

Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available

  • Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -2 is 4/9.

Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm

Gareth Bale

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Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!

Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.

Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.

More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.

To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.

Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.

Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?

It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.

  • Madrid to win by exactly one goal is 11/4

Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am

Gabi

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This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.

The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.

Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.

Raul Garcia

‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.

From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.

One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – i.e. so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.

You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.

  • Atletico to win is 1/2

Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

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A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.

Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.

The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.

Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.

Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.

Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.

Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.

  • Draw at 13/5

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Graham Hunter: La Liga is on the brink but I’m ready to strike with a 36/1 acca this weekend

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I won’t go into the deeply complicated reasons for the strike which has been announced for immediately after this weekend. But what you’ll have to take into account when you are betting on La Liga for week 36, is that most teams and most players will go into these games with the mentality that this may very well be La Liga’s final, and thus decisive, weekend.

There’s always the possibility of arbitration and conciliation but right now you’d call that an ‘odds-against’ proposition.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, Saturday 5pm

David Moyes

  •  Shoot over to all the latest La Liga odds on Desktop | Mobile 

Various football rules and Spanish laws mean that if there’s no compromise thrashed out then we could very easily be left with a 36-week Liga – the title, the UEFA positions and relegation could all become formalized by late on Sunday night.

Thus you should imagine that everyone involved has that extra incentive to give everything they’ve got – one last push.

Barcelona‘s players and fans should probably form a guard of honour and applaud David Moyes and his Txuri-Urdin footballers on to the Camp Nou pitch. It was that defeat at the Anoeta in January, a miserable low-point in terms of performance, man-management and player-coach relationships, which utterly galvanized Barça. They trudged off that wet Basque playing surface looking not just beaten but dispirited, disjointed and lacking in spirit.

From that day to this, they’ve won 16 of 18 Liga games (one defeat, one draw), six out of six cup games and five out of five Champions League games.
Twenty nine matches, twenty seven wins, and 94 goals since January.

And there’s the rub – The last time Barcelona lost or drew against La Real at the Camp Nou Johan Cruyff was in charge and it was mid-1995.
In the intervening twenty years, there have been some hammerings – 4-1 and 5-1 in the last two visits for example.

Barcelona-800

Moyes’ team is now fitter, plays with a clearer pattern and young talent has been promoted, to good effect. But they’ve not really conquered their affliction of going on the road and representing the character and thorny stubbornness which they can display at the Anoeta. That might cost them here.

A complicating factor is that Barcelona left a lot out on the pitch on Wednesday against Bayern - a lot of energy spent and a huge amount of adrenaline burned off. Luis Enrique‘s men increasingly look like champions, whether by default or merit, but they’ve not been invulnerable here. The 0-1 defeats to Celta and Málaga testify to that.

Squad Rotation

There’ll be some squad rotation – you’d expect some from Xavi, Sergi Roberto, Rafinha, Pedro and Bartra to get starts, and some from Suárez/Neymar, Busquets, Iniesta, and Rakitic to get a rest.

Might this be Xavi’s last game at the Camp Nou? Yes. He’ll leave this summer and the strike means it’s feasible that this is the Camp Nou’s last match for three months. It’s also feasible that if Barcelona drop points it’s ‘adios’ la Liga. If Madrid were to win later on and La Liga to be abandoned at J36 then that, as they say, would be that.

Moyes loses Zurutuza to injury and might well start with: Rulli Zaldua, Ansotegi/Mikel, Iñigo Martínez, De la Bella; Markel, Rubén Pardo, Granero; Xabi Prieto, Canales, Vela. Mikel González has had his suspension overturned and is available

  • Barcelona by three. Messi and Neymar to ensure it. Barcelona -3 is evens.

Real Madrid v Valencia, Saturday 7pm

Gareth Bale

  • Hey you! Jog on and get all the latest La Liga odds here on Desktop | Mobile 

Pre-strike this game was intriguing enough. But now!

Valencia‘s road-form is just about their only minus of the season. They’ve already registered 23 points more than last term, scoring 13 more than 2013/14. Away from home, however, there has been a slight inconsistency – sometimes lacking in strategic discipline, which would underline their lack of a top class striker to bring goals and points when everything seems against you.

Bluntly, the addition of Álvaro Negredo hasn’t yet been a success. Having said all that, that weaker Valencia side last season not only drew at the Bernabéu, but they cost Madrid the title.

More? Valencia have managed three consecutive draws at the Bernabéu so who could totally disregard them on a weekend when Los Blancos have much, much more to think about in midweek – they need a ‘remontada’ (fightback) against Juve.

To the next complicating factor. IF Barcelona have drawn or lost to David Moyes’ Real Sociedad then this will be an absolute and utter baying mob of a stadium. In that hypothesis, victory would stand a decent chance of winning Los Blancos the title, either by a point or on the head-to-head rule.
Valencia, if the league ended this weekend [something which nobody can guarantee], would automatically finish fourth as they have a three point lead over Sevilla and the ‘head-to-head’ advantage.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Their most reliable striker, Paco Alcácer, reckons: “We are quite clear that we’re going to Madrid to win and that we can do it. “We’re not going to throw away the great work of the season, and getting into the Champions League is our only objective”.

Diego Alves seems fit having suffered from thigh muscle problems a few days ago, Enzo Pérez is likely to return – likely with Javi Fuego, Dani Parejo and Sofiane Feghouli in midfield. Rodrigo Moreno is suspended so Piatti and Alcácer up front looks most likely.

Carlo Ancelotti needs to figure out who to rest, who needs more game time. Bale, anonymous in Turin, desperately needs a game like this to earn some match sharpness. Benzema might make this test in order to warm up for the visit of Juve, but the Italian needs to figure out whether this is just a shade too early for a striker who could be vital on Wednesday?

It is time for Chicharito to be restored, and score. Ronaldo looks in the groove. Parejo scored one and made one here last year and has had a stellar season in terms of goals – so he, Otamendi or Piatti might stand an investment.

  • Madrid, surely? By a goal. Madrid -1 is evens.

Levante v Atlético, Sunday 11am

Gabi

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This fixture presents one of the most remarkable records in Spanish football. Levante, a traditionally a struggling, under-resourced, backs-to-the-wall kind of club have won five, drawn one and only lost three of their Primera Division home meetings with Atlético – Spain’s third force. Three of the last results between these sides at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium have been 2-0 to Los Granotes.

The last one was a year ago, and Atleti’s legion of fans broiled in the heat without a thing to shout about as Levante hustled and hassled the champions-elect out of their mojo. David Barral (worth a shout this weekend), scored in that game, and has twelve in 31 games this season – his best pro-rata return ever.

Levante’s threat is lessened thanks to the suspension of Victor and Simão. The former should have been out last week and available this one but the May Day holiday meant that the disciplinary committee didn’t sit in time and the five-booking suspension is held over for this visit of the champions. For Cholo Simeone‘s mob, Diego Godín is also banned. Other than that, he’s got a wide choice of players and they’ve all had a clear week to recuperate mentally and physically.

Raul Garcia

‘Marca’ headlined this ‘The worst stadium at the worst possible time’. Only at the Camp Nou has Cholo a worse record in his three years in charge, compared to a draw and two defeats at Levante.

From training it looks a little like Simeone will try to end his impoverished record here via: Oblak, Juanfran, Giménez, Miranda, Siqueira, Arda, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann and Mandzukic. Fernando Torres and Raúl García benched.

One thing that might be worth taking into account is that Atlético feel dreadfully cheated of a win after last week’s officiating in the 0-0 draw at home to Athletic. They had at least two legitimate goals chalked-off, perhaps a penalty too, and in the dressing room afterwards the squad’s fitness coach, Óscar Ortega, absolutely tore strips off the Atlético President, Enrique Cerezo, for not ‘pressurizing’ referees and the Spanish FA in public sufficiently – ie so that Atleti get more favourable treatment.

You might reckon that this frustration, bottled up for a week, might be taken out on Levante. Griezmann, Siqueira and/or Arda to put an end to Atleti’s horrible run without a win here since 2007.

  • Atletico -1 is 8/5

Celta Vigo v Sevilla, Sunday 8pm

Vitolo-Sevilla-840

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A bit of a ‘ghost’ contest this one.

Between the two clubs there will be at least 11 important players missing via suspension or injury. The key nine are Nolito, Álex López, Hugo Mallo, Cabral and Larrivey suspended for Celta plus Reyes, Tremoulinas and Mbia for Sevilla. The first two are suspended, and Mbia suffered a head injury in the brilliant 3-0 win over Fiorentina in the Europa League semi final on Thursday.

The Galicians have three wins and a draw in the last five of these fixtures at the Balaídes. There’s a hint of doubt though, in the fact that Celta are in the bottom half of the table for home form. That’s depite the fact that they recently gave both Barcelona and Real Madrid barnstorming games (1-1 and 2-4) and they beat Atlético [2-0] not that long ago.

Add to that that Sevilla are top five in terms of away form and you might be tempted to back Unai Emery‘s side who look like they may defend their Europa League title and land a Champions League place that way.

Who Emery rests before the trip to Florence this week is a key – and hard to discern. Time for Gameiro, Iborra and Denis Suárez to get starts. Aleix Vidal, is in the form of his life – just beyond good in the last few games.

Maybe look at Vidal, Vitolo, Gameiro and Iborra for threat. Charles, Santi Mina and Orellana need to step up for the light blues.

Carlos Velasco Carbello is the referee, and for those who count cards and like to punt on that market, he booked nine and sent one off the last time these two sides met in Sevilla last January.

  • Draw at 13/5

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Graham Hunter: Barcelona and Real Madrid can overcome tricky tests to set up this 5/2 La Liga acca

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Cordoba v Barcelona – Saturday, 3pm

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How Barcelona, and in particular Luis Enrique, view this game can be judged by the squad. Córdoba are relegated, having scored only 21 goals in their 34 games thus far. While the vast majority of people have been talking about Spain’s neck-and-neck run-in for the title this has been considered a ‘gimme’. Turn up, look at the ball-to-flag distance and collect the three points without having to putt.

Not Lucho. He sees a dogged rival in Real Madrid. He expects them to win at Sevilla. He sees a Córdoba free of any responsibility in this game, free to run till they drop and take risks if they choose too. He sees a Córdoba incapable of winning often but capable of only single goal defeats here to Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.

Thus despite the midweek visit of Bayern Munich to the Camp Nou, despite the tantalizing prospect of reaching the Champions League final in his first season the Asturian coach has named every one of his important first team players – not choosing to rest or protect one of them. Thus he chooses from: Ter Stegen, C. Bravo, Piqué, Rakitic, Busquets, Xavi, Pedro, Iniesta, Suárez, Messi, Neymar, Rafinha, Mascherano, Bartra, Alba Adriano, Alves Mathieu.

There’s a decent likelihood that Messi, Suárez and Neymar start up front although only a banker-bet that two of them do so. Luis Enrique argued on Friday:

“Taking the foot off the pedal now would be like the marathon runner who gets to 24 miles with a record time but then starts to walk. Until we achieve the objectives there’s no relaxing and the objectives are to win the trophies. The league is in play at Córdoba”

It’s all about attitude. If his players repeat that of their coach they’ll win. But might it be a struggle? Feasible. The instinct to save just a little for a midweek Champions League match is often wholly subconscious.
Will Barcelona’s players conquer it? The guide so far this season says: ‘Yes’.
Much is being made of the fact that this is Barcelona’s first Liga visit to Córdoba since an infamous 1-0 defeat, held to have been scandalously reffed, in 1972 – a defeat which cost them the title.

Luis Enrique

I’m fairly sure 43 year old revenge won’t be a motif here, especially given the Cup tie here in 2012 [when Tito Vilanova put out a very strong side and only won 2-0 against the then Second Division side]
Córdoba coach Jose Antonio Romero reckons: “Anything can happen in a one-off game and we can’t take it as the starting idea that we’ll simply lose by 5-0. “I’ve beaten Barcelona in the Juvenil leagues and this is a dream come true”.

If his dream does come true then mark it as one of the biggest shocks in living memory. That would need Ghilas, Fede, Florin or Bebe to score.
Other than that bank on Suárez, Messi, Rakitic or Piqué to see Barcelona through, probably by two.

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Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao – Saturday, 5pm

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The only way to start to eye this up is to state that the confirmed absence of Aritz Aduriz doesn’t mean it’s impossible for Athletic to win at the Calderón – just far, far, far, far, far less likely.

Aduriz, club-trotter, has loved being home after careers at Valencia, Mallorca and Valladolid scoring at much closer to one ever other game compared to one in three the rest of his career.

This season he’s not only been Athletic’s leading scorer by far, he’s a true leader – and appears to be improving technically with every year over thirty which passes.

Ernesto Valverde, shorn of his best player, takes to the Spanish capital: Iraizoz, Toquero, Aurtenetxe, Laporte, San José, Iturraspe, Kike Sola, De Marcos, Bustinza, Iago Herrerín, Iraola, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Viguera, Guillermo, Unai López, Williams

Hidden in there is the truly forgotten man of Basque football, Gaizka Toquero who scored both in a 0-2 win the last time the Basques took three points at Atleti – back in 2011. I can’t confirm rumours that Valverde asked Matt Le Tissier to stay and play this weekend when he collected his ‘One Club Man’ award at the San Mames at the Basque derby this week.

Simeone can choose from Oblak, Moyá; Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez; Arda, Raúl García, Tiago, Mario Suárez, Gabi, Saúl, Koke; Mandzukic, Raúl Jiménez, Fernando Torres and Griezmann.
Atleti have shown the pain of elimination from the Champions League with some stilted football – but they’ve kept on winning. Look for them to do that again via Griezmann, Mandzukic or Raul García. Should be a cracker, intense, no quarter asked or given – worth watching as well as having a punt on.

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Sevilla v Real Madrid – Saturday, 7pm

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The game of the weekend, potentially even of the season. And these meetings are complete roller-coasters.
Recent seasons have seen regular Sevilla home wins [seven of them since 2003] – this is a place where Real Madrid need to fear going. Yet los Blancos have also recorded two consecutive 2-6 Madrid wins when they made Los Rojiblancos look like cardboard cutouts – in May and December 2011. These are explosive, there are often red cards, the Nervion produces a volcanic atmosphere and it’s survival of the fittest. This time there are so many additional angles it’s hard to know where to begin.

Obviously the foremost is the fact that by kick-off Barcelona may well have increased their lead to five points.
IF they haven’t, IF they don’t dispatch Córdoba, then a win here would put Madrid top and completely in charge of their own destiny. Match Barça’s points from then on and it would be Madrid’s title.

Zidane with Ancelotti

Should Barça have won then this match reverts to being a referendum on whether Madrid have the ‘cojones’ to cling on at the top and force Barcelona to win at the Calderón in a couple of weeks time. Just for the record Madrid led 0-1 here last year and then lost 2-1 to two Carlos Bacca goals – the second of which was created by an utter peach of an assist from Ivan Rakitic who’s now at Barcelona.
Ironic. [NB it’s the same referee this weekend as then]

The other key thing which hangs on this match is that Valencia dropped two points in midweek at Rayo meaning that they and Sevilla are tied for the fourth Champions League place – separated only by Valencia’s favourable head-to-head. Unai Emery’s team need to keep on winning – starting here. A massive Uefa cash-pot is at stake.
It’s fifteen months and since they lost at home and their 41 points at the Sánchez Pizjuán is their second best ever – six off the all time record set in 2006. Two more points and they’ll have reached their highest ever Primera points total.

To the game. Sevilla kept Trémoulinas, Reyes, Mbia and Bacca clear of a booking at Eibar so all are free to play with Vitolo the only major injury doubt. Ancelotti has Bale back but does he displace Chicharito – all goals and assists in the last few weeks? [Bale on the bench more likely]

It’s tempting to call this a Bacca v Ronaldo shoot-out. The Colombian’s in his best ever season for goals and assists and won this fixture with a brace. Ronaldo has just one in five but his record against Sevilla…. 18 in 12 matches and seventeen of those in the last eight.

Madrid will probably use Ramos in midfield, he loves a headed goal, Sevilla love to nod a couple in themselves and Iker Casillas doesn’t thrive on dealing with an aerial assault. No sitting on the fence – not one of the three available results here would be a surprise, home win, away win, draw.

Perm from Ronaldo, Chicharito, Ramos or Mbia, Bacca, Iborra for your ‘anytime’ goals.
Look for goals galore, best bet a score draw but my guess is that Madrid, just, have the will and the way to keep their title challenge alive.

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Valencia v Eibar – Sunday, 8pm

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Don’t be fooled by the ‘big guys good at home, little guys weak on the road’ narrative here – there’s masses resting on this one. The little Basque team didn’t win hearts and minds earlier this season because they were cute and charming. Not a bit of it.

They played smart, organised football and were worth watching. They are still attempting to play quite nice football but like a first time Iron Man competitor nearing the tape most of their involuntary muscles are threatening to give way. Eibar haven’t won in 16 matches, have taken a single point on the road since mid January.

But the fact remains that they are alive in either a three, or perhaps four, team mini league fighting relegation. It’s between Depor, Almería, Eibar and possibly Levante. The Mestalla looks an unlikely place to unleash the beast inside – but they’ve nothing to lose.Eibar are like the guy in the old joke who takes a bath once a year every year whether he needs it or not.

The’ve scored five times in their last fifteen – a goal every three matches whether they need it or not.
Gaizka Garitano, who’s spent much of the week in the spotlight thanks to walking out of a press conference at Almería due to the moronic behaviour of a couple of local journos, won’t be pleased that Mikel Arruabarrena, probably his most reliable striker, is suspended.

The stress on Valencia to thump the visitors and assure themselves of three points grew exponentially after Los Che dropped two points at Rayo and let Sevilla right back into the race for fourth place.
Nuno Espirito Santo and his guys have been a real breath of fresh air in this league but their continuity depends on reaching the Champions League.

“The result at Rayo wasn’t what we wanted but playing that kind of football makes me sure we’ll win the remaining four matches and I’m not giving up on the fight to finish third”

is Nuno’s message.

Dani Parejo lost us bucks by missing his penalty at the Camp Nou the other week but keeps repaying faith with, by far, his best scoring season ever. Another in midweek. He, Paco Alcácer and Feghouli are all worth consideration – as is the feasibility of Valencia winning by two clear goals. One of these days, I hope, Eibar will convert neat, adventurous play into a win – but at the Mestalla? Doesn’t look likely.

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Espanyol and Barca to draw, Atletico and Real Madrid to win – 9/1

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Graham Hunter: Real and Barca to come through tricky tests with this 17/2 double

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FC Barcelona v Valencia, Saturday 3pm

At the Camp Nou, just over a year ago Valencia stuck their leg out and Barcelona tripped flat on their face.

Effectively it was the defeat which cost Barça the title.

A win would have seen them pipping Atleti to win the league on goals scored.

Barça led 1-0, they pulled back to 2-2 but ended up losing at home to Valencia for the first time since Luis Enrique played against them in autumn 2003.

Camp Nou

In fact Los Che’s previous six visits had all been defeats and they’d conceded a whopping 21 goals.

Paco Alcácer scored the winner that day and it may be worth noting that he has 3 in his last 5 since returning from injury and 12 for club and country this season.

Both Celta Vigo and Málaga have managed 0-1 wins at Camp Nou in the last few months – mainly by playing a terrific, but exhausting, pressing game which capitalises on one of those rare days when not only do Luis Enrique’s team make a single crucial mistake in defence but, somehow, look nervy and imprecise in front of goal.

So, if you fancy Valencia, how to calibrate your chances?

Last week in Sevilla Barcelona committed two pretty horrible mistakes, Claudio Bravo and Gerard Piqué ending up with fingerprints on the crimes, to toss away a 2-0 lead.

But in Paris on Wednesday, despite regularly gifting the ball to PSG, Barcelona finished devastatingly well.
It does feel like there’s been a drop in concentration in using the ball – perhaps Valencia will have their scoring chances.

Lionel Messi

FYI: Leo Messi has played Valencia twenty times scoring fifteen goals [nine of them at the Camp Nou]. However he’s only actually hit the net in eight of those twenty matches – ie less than half the time.

His goals come in clutches, sometimes threes and fours. Thus, if he scores and you’re ‘in-play’ you may fancy backing him to do so again?

FYI[ii]: Diego Alves has always loved testing himself against Barcelona. Not only was he super in Barcelona’s 90th minute away win earlier this season [Sergio Busquets] he has often played absolutely unbelievably at the Camp Nou. Is he good enough to thwart Messi, Suárez and Neymar??

FYI[iii] Kick off times really shouldn’t be important in a grown-up world but, hey, astrologists still make a damn fine living from making things up in the newspapers so the world’s not perfect. Ergo, the last time Barcelona lost at home it was a Saturday and the kick off time was 4pm Spanish.

Just like this….. Again, if you are on this match ‘in-play’ don’t be fooled into believing that if it’s a draw with just a couple of minutes left, and with a return Champions League quarter final coming up on Tuesday, that Barcelona will ‘settle’.

They only have a two point lead over Madrid and nothing, nothing at all, other than a win here will serve if they are going to win the title.

Valencia choose from: Diego Alves, Yoel, Cancelo, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Vezo, Orbán, Gayà, Javi Fuego, Felipe Augusto, Parejo, André Gomes, Feghouli, Rodrigo, De Paul, Negredo and Alcácer.

Neymar is back on goal form, Parejo’s worth a small investment, Alcácer too. Major pressure on the league leaders. None of the three results would be a shock but … perhaps Barcelona to demonstrate how much they want this title?

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 7/5 

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Deportivo v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

It’s a central theme of Atlético’s title-defence season – key players missing because of suspension.

Not disastrous here, only Gabi is out, but he’ll be followed by fellow midfielder Mario Suárez on Wednesday against Real Madrid. All of which means that a pretty remarkable story should keep growing.

Tiago said his goodbyes to fans and team mates after the Champions League final having failed to renew his contract with Atleti – a deal with Chelsea was as good as signed. But the Portuguese never put pen to paper, financial terms and his fear about how much playing time he’d get brought things to a grinding halt.

His agent got back in touch with Atleti and Diego Simeone insisted to the men in grey suits that he be re-hired.

Nice call Cholo. The Portuguese should start against Depor, he’s played 25 games in la Liga this season and, with five, is third top scorer for the reigning champions in their league defence.

It’s also his best goal total for eight years.

It may guide you that in six of the last seven Depor v Atleti fixtures at the Riazor there’s only been a single goal victory margin, or no goals at all.

Atleti choose from:
Moyá, Oblak, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez, Ansaldi, Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Tiago, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Saúl, Cani, Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez and Fernando Torres.

No Mandzukic, no Mario, no Gabi – training suggests a likely XI of Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Tiago; Raúl García, Koke, Saúl, Arda; Griezmann

New coach Victor Sánchez brings back Luisinho and Juan Domínguez but Helder Postiga’s still out.

Victor chooses from:
Lux, Manuel Pablo, Álex Bergantiños, José Rodríguez, Lucas Pérez, Medunjanin, Juan Domínguez, Juanfran, Sidnei, Fabricio, Cuenca, Laure, Luisinho, Toché, Cavaleiro, Oriol Riera, Lopo and Fariña.

Hard and hostile for Atleti here – might they drop two points in a score draw? Not an outlandish idea I’d say.

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw at 7/2

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Real Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 7pm

The Málaga brand of football is pretty much like what they used to say about Guinness – sound as a pound on home territory, doesn’t travel well.

How Málaga need a widget.

In fact the this mob have proved the old Robert Louis Stevenson thing about it being ‘better to travel hopefully than to arrive’

Santiago Bernabeu

In 32 visits to Real Madrid’s ground their happy northward journey has ended, embarrassingly, without a single victory.

However, might the fact that Madrid have the ‘Derbi’ against Atletico in the Champions League on Wednesday give Javi Gracia’s sprightly, fun-to-watch team an edge?

Might it, also, make them a bit more chipper about their chances that Karim Benzema, eight goals in his last nine appearances against Málaga, is out injured?

How much do an away win at the Camp Nou and a home draw with champions Atlético [last week] strip away the ‘beaten before we take the field’ malaise which affects so many of La Liga’s minor teams at the Bernabéu?

Those are some of your decisions.

“The fact that Málaga won at the Camp Nou has focussed our attention on them, it means we’ll not take them lightly” Carlo Ancelotti promised on Friday

In midweek Madrid were thwarted by a superb Jan Oblak performance. Without the 22 year old Slovakian performing heroics Carlo Ancelotti’s men would have scored three, maybe four times.

Is Carlos Kameni, a little flappy last week, capable of the same? Having made a habit of beating Madrid while at Espanyol [three of his first four game against them were wins] he’s tasted nothing but defeat in this fixture since joining Málaga.

Thirty two conceded in fifteen games. If this helps your punt you can be wholly sure that Gracia’s team will play to win. They’ll press, they’ll try to pass the ball forward whenever possible and they’ll not abandon their front-foot, passing game Cristiano Ronaldo I hate to emphasise what John Cleese would call ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ but Cristiano Ronaldo is your ‘go-to’ man here. One of his best records is against Málaga – 13 in 14 meetings.

Might Modric be a dark-horse ‘anytime’ bet? He was pinging the ball at goal in midweek – shooting boots on. Should be fun, should be open … should be a home win by a two goal margin.

Madrid choose from: Casillas, Keylor Navas, Pacheco: Varane, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Carvajal, Arbeloa, Nacho: Kroos, James, Bale, Lucas Silva, Modric, Isco, Illarramendi, Ronaldo, Chicharito and Jesé.

Hunter’s Tip: Real Madrid to win by exactly 2 goals at 3/1

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Granada v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm

Glass half-full or half-empty for Unai Emery? After Thursday’s dramatic and draining comeback win over Zenit [2-1] he’ll be pleased not to have to travel too far to play Granada on Sunday. But he could probably have done without the extra ‘edge’ of an Andalusian derby against a team desperate to claw its way out of the relegation threat they face.

There’s also the extra buzz for what is an aggressive home support that Andalucia’s ‘big boys’, Sevilla, have only played at Los Cármenes three times in the last forty years. It’ll be like there’s a bounty on their heads. Regional pride will see to that.

Yet Granada have been surrender-monkeys recently – white flag at the Bernabéu when losing 9-1 a couple of weeks ago, a sea of white flags last weekend losing 3-0 at Almería

Your big evaluation here is: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’

Not here you’d hope. This is a mighty season for Unai’s squad and it would be such a damp squib if it teetered now.

Bacca’s goal against Zenit made it seven scoring headers from Sevilla’s players in their last ten matches. It’d be logical if their second half impact won Denis Suárez and Mbia starting places on Sunday. Each of them, plus Aleix Vidal, might be worth backing.

Finally, Sevilla’s league season only has seven matches left. I don’t know if I can hold on that long without a lame Dick Emery joke. So long as they keep winning I won’t have to reach for …. ‘Ooh they are awful, but I like them…’

Hunter’s Tip: Sevilla -1 goal at 12/5

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Graham Hunter: How Fernando Torres could line your pockets this weekend

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Madrid – Eibar Saturday, 3pm

“This is a banana-skin game,” Carlo Ancelotti said on Friday morning. With a straight face.

Well, frankly, you’re as likely to hear the Banana-splits theme played by the London Philharmonic Orchestra, conducted by Mr and Mrs Harmonic’s son Phil before you are likely to see Eibar winning at the Bernabéu.

Yes, yes. It’s not hard to understand Carlito’s intention. The European champions were duffed-up in the first half at Rayo Vallecano in midweek, they have no margin of error here and they’ll be without  the excellence of James Rodríguez, the order of Toni Kroos and the returning goal-power of Gareth Bale.

So, fine, avoiding complacency by warning about the threat Eibar carry, that’s okay.

But even though Eibar’s coach Gaizka Garitano was singing from the same song-sheet [‘One banana, two banana, three banana four…tra la la, tra la, la, la…] when he said this week: “People think we are dead and buried but there’s a lot of life left in us”, this isn’t the weekend they can be permitted to show that’s true.

Prior to beating Málaga on Tuesday the Basques had not won since January 10, at home to Getafe, and failed to scored in seven of 10 games. That tells a story. It may not be the greatest story ever told, but Easter’s past now.

What’s true, and has been for a couple of weeks, is that Garitano’s team is playing better. Making chances, making it worth watching them because they are pleasing to the eye.

  • If you fancy a walk on the wild side then Mikel Arruabarrena is, by far, their best prospect of an historic goal in their first Liga game at the Bernabéu. He has two in their last two games and was denied a third, unjustly, by the ref against Málaga.

Next best? Saúl Berjon – nice wee player.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Los Blancos aren’t yet on full ramming speed, will miss James in particular because he’s added cutting edge and verticality in their play since returning.

Also, they have the Madrid derby in the Champions League on Tuesday. However what showed in midweek is that if their silk glove is a bit tatty, their iron fist is in punching mode.

Watching them react, so powerfully, to the nonsense of Ronaldo being denied the most blatant of penalties at Rayo indicated that there is ferocity of spirit and an intent to win this title.

They should have a far harder afternoon than a week ago when hitting nine against Granada but they can be backed.

“We don’t care if Ronaldo’s had his yellow card rescinded and is free to play,” said the Eibar President Friday afternoon. Wrong!

Back CR7 to score, again, back Benzema, back Isco and, have a flutter on Ramos.

  •  Match betting

Málaga – Atlético, Saturday, 5pm

It’s just not practical to take a disparaging tone of voice when speaking about a match at La Rosaleda – even after Javi Gracia’s team lost a bit of steam in recent weeks.

Málaga can play, have individuals who’ll produce clever moments, the crowd is usually numerous and boisterous. [This match is sold-out]. So it’s a trap for the unwary.

However, the instinct to back an upset here, which would have been tempting during the earlier part of Atleti’s bumpy 2015, has diminished a bit.

Diego Simeone’s team went through a spell where they looked leg-weary, psychologically bruised and just a tad vulnerable to energy, organisation and ambition. All of which Málaga have been capable of providing this term.

But Los Rojiblancos can evidently see the finishing tape now, clearly.

It’s like the combined effect of knowing that their guru, their Pied Piper [What do you mean ‘who’? Simeon,e of course!] has renewed his contract and will stay next season plus the knowledge that they are edging towards guaranteeing Champions League football while playing the quarter final of that competition against a team they’ve beaten four times since August has injected pure adrenaline in their veins.

  • Since coming within 12 minutes of a 1-0 home win over Valencia on March 8, but then conceding, Atleti have played five times without conceding; beating Getafe [2-0], Córdoba [2-0] Bayer Leverkusen [1-0] and Real Sociedad [2-0] plus drawing with Espanyol [0-0].

Keeper Miguel Ángel Moyá is back from injury, so is Diego Godín, while Juanfran has served his suspension. Mandzukic and Raúl García are both still injured.

The negative about the home side is that their three recent defeats, and a draw in the last five games, have been against sides lower than them in the table – Granada, Rayo, Eibar and Real Sociedad.

Fernando Torres 800

On the positive side, Gracia was without two significant players when losing at Eibar in midweek – Samu Castilejo and Sergio Sánchez. They return while Sergi Darder, a doubt, makes the squad. Gracia will choose from: Kameni, Amrabat, Weligton, Samuel, Javi Guerra, Ricardo Horta, Juanmi, Tissone, Ochoa, Recio, Angeleri, Duda, Rosales, Boka, Sergio Sánchez, Miguel Torres, Samu Castillejo, Sergi Darder.

Back to bananas, there’s a slip-up threat here but back Atleti, just.

NB: Fernando Torres has five in eight against Málaga; Griezmann has three in eight.

NB1: Don’t look for a goal feast. In only FOUR of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs have both teams scored. Prior to this season the last three games produced only three goals

NB2: have a think about Godín anytime. Each of Málaga’s last two defeats have been 0-1 to back-post headers.

  • Match betting

Sevilla – Barcelona, Saturday 7pm

In life, which do you believe in more? The immovable object or the irresistible force?

Sevilla haven’t lost at home for over a year – since their city neighbours Betis won at the Nervión.

Thirty-one matches in League, Europe and Cup. Immovable.

Barça, in contrast, have won 10 straight away matches, no mean feat, since losing at the Anoeta in their first match of 2015. Irresistible?

The league-leaders carry some baggage to Andalusia – and not just the shadow of Wednesday’s Champions League quarter final in Paris.

Good though he was against Almería during the week, Messi still appears to be protecting his right outstep where he’s felt pain since the Manchester City game at the Camp Nou.

Neymar, dropped in midweek, is out of form and has been for weeks.

Contract talks with Dani Alves have broken down and his agent [also his ex-wife] stated that some of his defensive lapses recently owe to his mental state caused by uncertainty over his playing future. [He’s out of contract in June]. Way to impress the coach Mrs A.

But we have to take into account the fact that not since Alves scored the winner for Sevilla in this fixture back in 2007 have Barça lost here.

Seven wins and two draws in their last nine visits.

Lionel Messi

Unai Emery just doesn’t have a happy record against them either – wherever he’s been he’s found it super-hard, either in adversity or when on top in a game, to emerge with a win.

  • Eighteen matches, four different clubs, no victories, five draws, 13 defeats. What a chance he has here.

Bacca, having been rested at Levante, will start and is the best bet. Sevilla are pretty interesting aerially and while Barcelona have improved, radically, when defending set-plays they are by no means invulnerable. Mbia is fit and loves to score a header.

  • Only twice in 23 home matches this season have Sevilla failed to score, only three times in 22 away trips this season have Barcelona failed to score.
  • So: high chance both teams to score; fate says ex-Sevilla captain Ivan Rakitic scores for Barcelona; Messi’s sights are in with his free kicks and is due to net one soon;Bacca, Vitolo, Mbia, Krychowiak all might repay faith.

Barcelona are not on high form but have a really grim determination about them these days. For that, for Messi and for their eight year record in Sevilla they’ll start favourites.

But if you back a score draw you’ll not be alone.

  • Match betting

Valencia – Levante, Monday 7.30pm

Football is remarkable. Valencia have beaten both the Spanish and European champions this season, have a new, wealthy owner, brim with good new players, the crowds have been huge and vibrant … but they’ll enter the city derby with nerves.

Levante have been fighting relegation all season, are on their second coach this term and lost at home in midweek but there’s a genuine sense that they are both robust and capable of staying up.

But, Frank Carson-stylee, there’s more.

Levante, pretty remarkably, have three wins and two draws in their last six Valencia derbies. Given the relative resources and squad-calibre that’s a standout achievement.

One of the defeats of Valencia was this season – one of only two wins in their first ten home matches. Some kids.

And more. Nuno Espirito Santo may have been looking for the gypsy who’s thrown a curse or whoever on his staff broke a couple of mirrors.

Last week they played a weakened Villarreal side, one which went on to be pumped 0-3 at home by Espanyol in their next match, but Los Che squandered chances, played without enough zest and dropped two points. Major chance missed

Then, away at Athletic, they had Otamendi wrongly sent off and, winning 0-1, dropped two more points in the final seconds when Aduriz scored from a blatantly offside position.

Suddenly they are not only not third but they’ve gifted Atleti a three point lead.

Okay, Levante like facing Valencia. They absolutely require points for survival but Los Che have just three more home games after this one and, by hook or by crook, they simply have to win. On balance, just, it’s worth backing them to do that.

  • Match betting

 

 

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Graham Hunter: Suarez to shine, Real to win ugly and even Torres will get a goal this weekend

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Espanyol v Atlético Saturday 3pm

This looks like the shape of things to come – short and long term.

Mario Mandzukic, big old lump of ‘mala leche’ [meanness], may be Atleti’s top scorer this season with 20 all comps but to manage he’s also about as much fun as stubbing your toe.

Pep Guardiola couldn’t get him out of Bayern sharply enough and now the buzz from Atleti’s training ground is that Cholo Simeone doesn’t like the cut of the Croat’s jib.

Remember that fad for ‘who would win in a fight, a tiger or a lion?’ ~ Well let’s go all hypothetical here too.

It’s Friday night, drinks have been consumed, it’s a dark alley and an ill-judged remark has been passed. Who’d win, Mario or El Cholo?

Answers on a postcard to Power tower but if those answers don’t say ‘Duh! El Cholo!’ then they’ll be put in the recycling bin.

Ok, back in character.

Atleti have been eight stone weaklings away from home in 2015 – something you might want to factor in here.

Since January they’ve played Barcelona, Barcelona [Copa], Eibar Celta, Bayer Leverkusen and Sevilla. Six away matches, three competitions, one win. The results in sequence have been 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Four defeats, one draw, one win and four goals scored in 540 minutes.

Not great.

So dopy old Mario comes on last week in the pub-brawl masquerading as a football match, 1-1 at home to Valencia, gets booked and is suspended. [Siqueira too] Likely that means he’ll not start v Leverkusen in midweek. Massive game that. And if he’s not sold in the summer I’d be a little surprised. Roger Moore 007 eyebrow raised-level of surprise.

So Antoine Griezmann, back him any time, returns after his own suspension and the question is whether it’ll be as sole striker or with Torres at no9 and Griezmann supporting him. This looks the most likely XI – Moyá, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Gámez, Raúl García, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann, Torres. Fernando Torres 800

NB Torres has four in eight v Espanyol, but only one win in those matches.

What of Espanyol? Their best player, Sergio Garcia, was in court on Friday facing questions about whether he has been associated with fixing matches. They went out of the Cup, limply, at home to Athletic Bilbao and they have lost nine of sixteen matches in 2015.

Depite their last five home games v Atleti producing three wins a draw and a defeat they are under threat here. Were it not for Atleti’s misfiring away from home you’d say this was a banker win for the champions. Thus a draw is totally feasible. But fortune favours the brave – there’s a risk but why not Atleti to win, Griezmann and Torres to score?

            • Hunter’s Choice: Atletico Madrid to win and Fernando Torres to score at 7/2

 

 

Eibar v Barcelona Saturday 5pm

Other than Barça fans and supporters of the teams in the relegation battle you’d guess that the rest of the world is dreaming of the mother, father, next-door neighbour and second cousin’s girlfriend of all shocks here. Eibar is a pocket-sized community – 27,000 inhabitants, a stadium that holds just over 5000. They are in the top division for the first time ever and needed to pass the hat round to have the necessary finances to take up their place in La Primera last summer.

Having thrilled with their performances in the first half of the season, easily the top performing Basque club pre-Christmas, defeat could put them in the bottom three this weekend. They are eight without a win, seven of which are consecutive defeats. Little wonder their coach, Gaizka Garitano, says:

“We are playing for more than Barcelona. “Another league here or there won’t change their history. “While not only is this a match our fans will still be talking about in ten years time, we are playing for the future of the club. “This isn’t a game to have fun in, nor one to plan which jersey you’re going to try and swap. “We need to compete and to ensure that the best team in the world doesn’t get to do what it is capable of doing – scoring five goals in five minutes.”

The difficulty is that while as defender Saúl Berjón says, “nobody has turned us over yet” – they can neither score freely nor keep a clean sheet. Messi, alone, has scored more Liga goals this season than the entire Eibar squad. Ipurua Municipal Stadium Eibar’s Ipurua pitch used to be a refugee from 1974, muddy, rutted and not for artistes. They re-laid it and, it seems to me, football-playing teams now quite enjoy an afternoon at Eibar.

An advantage lost.

Talking of which, there’s a lot of speculation that the sale of Raúl Albentosa to Derby marks Eibar’s decline. Not so, their record of two goals in their last seven league matches holds the key.

Barça? Well if there were ideal conditions for a shock mebbe they are on show here. Both full backs, Alves and Alba, are out suspended. Busquets is out injured. His natural replacement, Javi Mascherano, is one booking away from missing next weekend’s Clásico. So is Mathieu. Barça have also had two and a half days off this week, which Neymar used to go to Brazil for his sister’s birthday, and the last time they had that much free time they lost at home to Málaga. Luis Suarez But they’ve clawed their way back to the top of the table and have too much to lose for this to be a game that slips away.

Luis Suárez is made for a game like this, and he’s hit eight in his last seven matches. Messi is Messi. I know it’s against the odds but the adventurous might want to look at Piqué to add yet another to his already record goal-scoring season.

Eibar give away headed chances [a ginormous amount of them in their last home game] the Catalan loves a goal and the Basque’s also concede lots of free kicks and corners.

Might be feisty, not without threat for Barça but 1-3.

          • Hunter’s Choice: Barcelona to win 3-1 at 10/1

 

 

Sevilla v Elche Sunday 6pm

The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.

Five star stuff.

Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.

The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.

Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1

        • Hunter’s Choice: Sevilla to win 2-1 at 7/1

 

 

Real Madrid v Levante Sunday 8pm

Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.

And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”

So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.

Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. casillas The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.

The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.

Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.

Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrowloads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.

Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.

Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.

  • Hunter’s Choice: Real Madrid to win by exactly two goals at 7/2

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GRAHAM HUNTER: They’ve room to improve but bank on Real Madrid and Barcelona this weekend

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Graham’s quick-firebets:

    • Barcelona to win 3-1 – 9/1
    • Valencia to win 2-1 – 8/1
    • Atletico to win 3-2 – 33/1
    • Real Sociedad to win 2-1 – 9/1
    • Cristiano Ronaldo to score and Real to win – 8/11

WIN ACCA:
Barcelona, Valencia, Atletico, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid all to win – 15/2

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Barcelona v Malaga – Saturday 3pm

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The standard expression is: A week is a long time in politics.

This weekend should prove that five months is an eternity in football. There was a shocking, shocking stat last time Barça went up against these lads from the Costa Del Sol capital – at La Rosaleda late last September. Luis Enrique’s team not only drew 0-0 but didn’t have a shot on target.

That was then, this is now. Back in September coach Javi Gracia could start with Camacho in midfield and Amrabat up front. Both suspended now from the team which has 66 bookings and five red cards in their 24 League matches. They’ll be missed.

Now Suárez, unavailable in September, is a major force for good in Barça’s ‘Goals For’ column – both those he tucks away and, more impressively still, those he either creates directly via an assist or via the tremendous job he does of taking players away from Messi and Neymar.

@leomessi & @luissuarez9 #igersFCB #FCBarcelona

A photo posted by FC Barcelona (@fcbarcelona) on

Barcelona have scored 56 times in the subsequent 18 games, are Europe’s form side, bar none, and tend to thump Málaga at the Camp Nou. Not since Louis Van Gaal was the manager in late 1999 the current manager, Luis Enrique, only lasted 61 minutes and previous manager Pep Guardiola only managed 69 minutes have Málaga won at Barcelona. The intervening years are littered with four, five and six goal defeats, just twice has their been only a single goal margin.

Gracia says: “We’ll have to be very, very, very good to take a point but we’ll attack and counter-attack when we can”

So, once again, we probably aren’t debating the result (is my guess) – just its margin.
The visitors’ form has fallen off a cliff. One win in seven league matches since just before Christmas.
It should be a slaughter. But will it?

Take two things into account. Luis Enrique might ‘protect’ Neymar before the City game and Carlos Kameni just loves to thwart Barcelona. The Cameroon keeper has played this lot more times than any other team since arriving in Spanish football and not only won at the Camp Nou with Espanyol he has three 0-0 draws against Barça for Espanyol and Málaga.

Maybe, just maybe, Kameni has one of ‘those’ days, Barcelona hold something in reserve for Lancashire and the win margin is lower than it should be?

Messi has fourteen goals in his last ten matches, 12 in 14 against Málaga over the last ten years. For value have a look at Pedro, Rafinha and Rakitic again – although they are outsiders compared to the Neymar-Messi-Suárez trident which is functioning so well. In fact I spent part of Thursday interviewing a very happy, very confident Suárez. Great goal last week, another this I’d bet.

  • Graham’s Bet: Barcelona to win 3-1
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Cordoba v Valencia – Saturday 5pm
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You’re probably all too young to remember it but there used to be a US comedy show called ‘Soap’ which, as you may be able to deduce, took the mickey right out of soap-operas. It’s where Billy Crystal made it big. The voiceover at the beginning used to detail who was related to whom, who was doing the dirty with whom, who hated whom, who secretly loved … ok, you get the picture.

The tagline used to be: ‘Confused? You won’t be after this episode of Soap!’ So it is with the sitcom: ‘Suspension!’ at Valencia.

André Gomes is back from suspension, while Enzo Pérez and Antonio Barragán are out because of it. The week before it was Nico Otamendi and Joao Cancelo suspended but now Cancelo will replace Barragán at right back … because he’s, you’ve got it, suspended.

And just to continue the ‘Confused…?’ theme who was it that burned great chunks out of the Cordoba training ground? It’s a mystery, honest it is. But someone took the time to ensure that the team won’t be able to use their training pitch for a long, long time. Unless they pay local experts to renovate it…
Djukic’s team have been training in the stadium meaning the playing surface won’t be all that.

Bad news for the locals – Fede Cartabia, dashing winger and their best player I’d say, is on loan from Valencia so the ‘Clause of Fear’ as it’s called here kicks in. ‘No play!’ say Valencia.
Nuno has had los Che practising shooting all week so you’re obviously guaranteed that it’ll be a header that wins this [Negredo] but Parejo is hitting the net for fun and strikes from distance, Feghouli should start and love a long range effort as does the returning Gomes who’s no longer… suspended.
Away win, HAS to be for a Valencia trying to learn how to win on the road in order to reach the Champions league.

  • Graham’s Bet: Valencia to win 2-1
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Atletico Madrid v Almeria – Saturday 7pm
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Right? A safety pin through the nostril is a heavenly look for one guy, cashmere sweater and cravat for the next. Thus: Luis Enrique is obsessed, OBSESSED I tell you, by secrecy over training and team selection at Barcelona.

On the other hand Diego Simeone, similarly intense as a guy and a manager, practically sold state secrets by voluntarily naming Atlético’s starting XI for this Saturday night game early on Friday afternoon! It is:

Moyá; Juanfran, Godín, Miranda, Siqueira; Saúl, Tiago, Gabi, Arda; Griezmann, Mandzukic

As he was doing it I swear I could hear Lucho Enrique shrieking ‘are you flaming mad you idiot?!!!’ in horror. This has the makings of a good game. Juan Ignacio Martinez, know to everyone as JIM, is a real student of Rafa Benitez, gets his teams organised and tough to break down and he’s got a couple of really lively and threatening players in Thievy [who’s not the soundest temperament-wise] and Hemed [worth an ‘any-time’ punt] up front.

Atleti were simply posted missing last week but as Simeone pointed out they are a totally different side at home, in front of their rabidly supportive fans, and with the elegant Arda Turan in the side.
Unless Simeone’s team get ahead promptly there’s the possibility of a hangover from last week’d defeat to Celta – but with Arda back, Tiago fit again and no experimental tactical nonsense like the coach tried last week the Champions should punch their weight again.

  • Graham’s Bet: Atletico to win 3-2
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Real Sociedad v Sevilla – Sunday 11am
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Well now. David Moyes has a fan in Valencia owner Peter Lim and here’s a chance for the Scot to do the Singaporean a favour by defeating the fifth-placed side – Valencia’s main Champions League rivals.
La Real have been working hard this week. There have been a couple of double training sessions, the first of which prevented Moyes from going back to Lancashire and expert-analysing the Preston North End v Manchester United FA Cup tie on Monday night.

blog_moyes_hdr

What La Real did NOT have was a testing and draining Europa League tie on Thursday night followed by the long trip up north from Andalusia to the Basque Country and then a Sunday midday kick off. More, Sevilla’s Europa League tie with Borussia Moenchengladbach is now delicately balanced at 1-0 and the defending champions prize retaining the trophy very, very highly. Second leg next week – could some of Unai Emery’s men have the match in Germany as a higher priority than this one?

Perhaps, just perhaps, all this narrows the gap between the two sides slightly. Grzegorz Krychowiak, a titan for Sevilla in recent weeks, is suspended for his red card last week. Iborra might be worth looking at for a goal – he’s got himself in a cartload of scoring positions over the last few games.

So, make your own careful judgments but with Canales, Chory Prieto, Granero and Agirretxe all looking in form there’s a hint that La Real could take advantage of the situation and finally notch a win [there’s only been one of them since beating Barcelona on January 4]. IF you back them and they are ahead with ten minutes left mebbe Cash Out, there’s a long history of La Real letting a result slip away in the late stages of games this season.

  • Graham’s Bet: Real Sociedad to win 2-1
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Elche v Real Madrid – Sunday 8pm
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‘I’d like a piece of their crisis!’ was the tone of the Elche coach’s press conference before this match.

Asked, legitimately enough, whether this was the best time of the season to be hosting Madrid, Fran Escribá was invited to move away from the wall but didn’t want to dance. Elche have put two wins together on the trot when, previously, they looked like they couldn’t even spell the word if you gave them w_n as a starter clue.

Carlo Ancelotti

Los Blancos have lost three times this year and Carlo Ancelotti found himself, as per usual with this brutally demanding club, bang in the middle of a hurricane of doubts and criticism. But his rival this Sunday pointed out:

“They’ve one foot in the Champions League quarter final where they are defending champions, they are still league leaders and they just became World Club champions. That’s a very ‘Real Madrid’ kind of crisis”

Escribá looks like a talent. His “dream” is to go back and manage Atlético on his own [where he was assistant to Quique Sanchez Flores], so this is something of a job audition for the future. “It’s a good moment to face Madrid firstly because of how we are playing, with confidence. “Two months ago it’s possible that the players and people around the club might have said that an ‘honourable defeat’ was acceptable against Madrid. “Now my players feel strong – capable of winning”

Nice little atmosphere brewing – Elche are the ninth-best supported club in La Liga this season. Madrid will need to be up for it. If you back ‘shocks’ look at their hustle-bustle striker Jonathas and their dancing-feet winger Garry Rodrigues. Me? I think Madrid aren’t near their best yet but they are shaking off their lethargy and they won here last season in the 90th minute (1-2) thanks to Ronaldo. Something similar this time – Ronaldo and mebbe Isco? Ps: think there’s a Bale goal coming because he’s begun to work a good deal harder.

  • Graham’s Bet: Cristiano Ronaldo to score and Real to win – 8/11
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Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid have a little in common with Chicken Licken this season

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Deportivo la Coruña v Real Madrid

Real Madrid’s opponents this weekend, Deportivo La Coruña, once represented perhaps the healthiest years in La Liga history.

They’d scout brilliantly, play superb football, regularly meet and beat teams like Manchester United, Arsenal and Milan. They were a force.

One of their most emblematic traits was that, at the Riazor in La Coruña (3pm, Saturday), Madrid just couldn’t beat them. For 18 long years there was the odd draw but also a regular flow of three, four and five-goal wins for Depo – often coached by an Atlético legend in Jabo Irureta, just to rub salt in the wound.

To put that kind of hex in context this was across a spell when Madrid reached and won three Champions League finals.

Biggest club competition? No problem.

Three points up in Galicia? Forget it.

Zidane v Keane

Roberto Carlos, Beckham, Figo, Zidane (above), Ronaldo never won at the Riazor while they were Galacticos.

The run from 1991/2 to 2009/2010 finally ended thanks to a 3-1 win inspired by two Karim Benzema goals, one of which is now infamous for a sublime Guti backheel into the Frenchman’s path when Guti seemed free to score himself.

Now Depo represent just about all that ails Spanish league football. Held together by player loans and bank debt there have been times in recent months while the team yo-yoed back and forward from the Second Division, when the club was a candidate to go out of business.

The last formal statement was last year when the total was €153m and they recently admitted owing €63m to the Spanish Revenue as part of that.

What has not changed since that January 2010 win for Manuel Pellegrini’s Madrid broke the jinx, however, is that the Riazor remains a place where Los Blancos need to sweat.

Since then there’ve been two whoppings at the Bernabéu, 11-2 aggregate, but a 0-0 draw and 1-2 away win courtesy of an 88th minute second goal for Jose Mourinho’s Madrid.

A cautionary tale about Real’s weaknesses

This weekend attention turns to Albert Lopo (above) if he starts. The big central defender has played all three league fixtures for Victor Fernandez, but the coach, who often put out winning Celta Vigo and Real Zaragoza teams against Madrid in his day, has been rotating the team significantly.

Why Lopo? He’s scored for both Espanyol and Depo against Los Blancos, the last a headed winner against a back five which sported Casillas, Ramos, Pepe and Marcelo.

Madrid fear the ball in the air more than Chicken Licken feared the sky falling on his head. More? Booked in all three of this season’s matches, Lopo hates a card. Just hates one.

Sent off 13 times in his career and booked 136 times he’s not the quickest and referee Pedro Pérez Montero sports a record of 18 reds in 55 Liga matches. One every three games.

Madrid to win, however. In both of their horror defeats, away to La Real and home to Atlético, they made oodles and oodles of good scoring chances but only put three of them away.

The way in which they hammered Basel in midweek and the relief, for Benzema, James and Bale to get on the scoresheet should de-stress their finishing. Worth noting, however, that their second half performance, just as against La Real and Atlético declined.

Ronaldo will be extra motivated to score at one of only two La Liga grounds this season where he’s not celebrated with a goal. Pepe is injured and Rafa Verane will start in his place.

IF Madrid were to lose then a sniff in the direction of next Liga coach to lose his job might be a forward investment.

Lionel Messi stat La Liga

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Levante v Barcelona

Munir made his Spain debut here a couple of weeks ago, Busquets and Pedro scored then too, against Macedonia, and the great majority of this squad has twice celebrated clinching the title on this ground in Valencia.

Happy hunting ground? Not necessarily so. Of Barcelona’s last seven Liga visits to the Ciutat De Valencia (8pm, Sunday) there have been four 1-1 draws. What I think makes that all the more significant is that the results have come under four different managers using significantly different XIs.

There’s something about this fierce, proud little community and the tight pitch, which was muddy and sluggish down the middle when Spain beat Macedonia back at the beginning of September, which forces Barcelona to be at their sharpest and most aggressive if they want three points.

Something which hasn’t, yet, been the case under the Luis Enrique revolution. Thus far Leo Messi has contributed four assists and scored two goals. Take them away [for the sake of argument] and Barcelona would have registered just one win, scored just one goal and would be under extreme pressure.

Levante don’t like scoring

No question, under ‘Lucho’ Barcelona are working harder, beginning to look more fluent and neither keeper, Claudio Bravo nor Marc-Andre ter Stegen, has had to make more than one significant save.

The pressing all over the pitch has helped see to that. But backstage after the 1-0 win over APOEL numerous players and staff used the word ‘espeso’ to describe their performance.

It’s the word you’d use if the sink pipe was blocked – i.e. not particularly fluid. Luis Enrique has used 22 of his 26 man squad, too many changes in too short a time, frankly.

Neymar hobbled out of the stadium on Wednesday and it’d be a surprise if he started. Time for Munir and Pedro again? NB it’s now 369 minutes since Levante scored a league goal… on that form you’d kinda fancy Barcelona to see out a good win, if they got the first goal.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Atlético v Celta Vigo

Cholo v Toto. No, it’s not code. It’s how this battle will be seen by many. Diego Simeone v Eduardo Berizzo. Two aggressive Argentinian street-fighters, with half a lifetime in common, doing battle for the first time as opposing coaches.

They played each other as kids for Newells Old Boys and Velez, they took lumps out of each other for Celta and Atlético as players, shared the national shirt of Argentina to good effect and both, in their fledgling years, coached at Estudiantes.

And perhaps, just perhaps, Toto has picked a good time to head back to Kansas.

Atlético lost only one game and conceded just five goals en route to last season’s Champions League final yet in Athens in midweek they lost to Olympiakos, conceded three times and looked as stretched as they’ve done in Europe for several years.

Mario Mandzukic is out for at least a fortnight after a reparative nose operation and you’d bet that Miguel Ángel Moyà will replace Jan Oblak in goal.

Tiredness was a word which Simeone didn’t allow to feature in Atlético’s dictionary last season… but might there be a trace of it this weekend at Vicente Calderon (7pm, Saturday).

Long journey to Athens, beaten in a sweaty, aggressive cauldron, long journey home – still no Simeone on the bench this weekend.

Heads you win

Celta like to play 4-3-3 in possession, 4-1-4-1 without the ball and, like Atleti are taught to press the opposition high up the pitch and to work like hungry dogs.

Atleti, without Mandzukic, will probably use Raul Jiménez and Antoine Griezmann up front leading to more breakaway counter attacks and a return to the ball played quickly over the top or into channel-runs as last season for Diego Costa.

Celta’s best player, Nolito, is fit again but might not start given that Celta host the Galician derby [v Depo] this week… but with Toto you never know.

Between them, the two sides have scored five headed goals already this season so a look at that for first goal, with perhaps Joaquín Larrivey [two goals already this season and a headed goal for Rayo against Atlético last season] or Diego Godín in mind might reward.

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Graham Hunter on Luis Suarez: What’s fascinating about this Pandora’s Box of a player is that the lid has been closed for months now

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By now he may be the most famous biter in the history of sport, even ahead of Mike Tyson. He’s a serial diver and he’s been convicted and banned for racist actions. Most recently there will also have been some writing him off as guilty of cynically constructing a fairytale narrative normally just be fed to the gullible and naive.

Luis Suarez and his ‘love’ for Barcelona.

At one level it fits with the guff which players have always churned out. Hence the suspicion.

Never mind the huge contract, never mind the lure of winning trophies instead of clawing for top league survival, never mind exchanging a bunch of journeymen for shiny new elite colleagues you still get …… ‘I love this club… I’ve always wanted to play for this club… I’ve got the club crest tattooed on my heart…’

You know the drill.

As his debut for Barcelona draws closer the anecdotes have sluiced out. How he came to the Camp Nou as a fan, an impoverished 16-year-old who was captivated by the football but couldn’t afford to liberate a pair of ‘Ronaldinho’ boots until he came back again the next time with more dosh in his pocket.

How this is the club at which he wants to retire. That this is the culmination of a football love affair, at least on his part. But of course this is just another part of the walking contradiction that is Luis Suárez. Family man, consistently immensely popular with his team mates, world class footballer… occasionally no better than a street thug.

Thus, what could have just been glib phrases crafted by a PR agency turn out to be bang-on true.

Suárez first visited the Camp Nou when his then girlfriend, now wife, Sofia Balbi, moved with her parents to Catalunya. He’s a kid going off the rails at Nacional back in Uruguay. Sloppy and temperamental of attitude he’s not training well, drinking and, in due course, gets red carded and suspended for a physical attack on referee Luis Larranaga.

Aged 14, Nacional, his club, warned him they were about to release him, tired of his lack of focus and impatient with him “keeping bad company”.

Like Edmilson, who had a brilliant career here having been a juvenile alcoholic, the ‘last’ chance was the right one. There’s a long, brilliant, essay by Wright Thompson about those days where the writer goes to Montevideo and finds that Suárez’s part in that referee assault actually catalyzed events which led to a shooting. I urge you to take time and read it (after this piece, of course).

His redemption

However, Sofía is his redemption. But she’s half a world away. When he first visits it is the transition season, Luis Enrique scores for Barcelona in a 1-1 Clásico draw at Madrid, Ronaldinho arrives in what Ferran Soriano [now the big boss at Man City] told me was “our rock ‘n roll” signing.

The Brazilian’s first goal comes at the Camp Nou in Autumn 2003, well past midnight because a dispute between Barcelona and Sevilla means the game kicks off just after midnight. [Spain, huh?]

Ronaldinho produces a slalom run and vicious long range goal. Because it’s so late at night and the city is quiet the 90,000 roar from the Camp Nou registers a blip on the city’s earthquake seismographs. Another real street fighter, Edgar Davids, (Suárez and he share a philosophy about means and ends) will join and Frank Rijkaard’s first season will erupt into what becomes an unlikely chase for the title.

Barça’s ascent to greatness has begun again, Suarez (by fluke) is present and is seduced.

“I was 16 and on holiday to visit Sofía and so we went to the Camp Nou and although I couldn’t afford any of the gear in the club shop we went there and I had photos taken with a replica model of Ronaldinho.

“Then when I’d saved up and went back I bought my first pair of serious football boots and they were the brand which Ronaldinho wore with his name printed on them.”

Kids with Scouse accents

Eventually his move to Holland lets him reunite with the love of his life. Now he and Sofía have kids. With Scouse accents.

“If you’ve someone beside you in life to support, guide and help you it bears fruit. My wife’s the one who makes me follow the correct path. Even if I score four in a game when I come home I’m a dad and a husband first: not ‘Luis Suárez’.”

Over the years, when Sofía and he visited her parents he’d take in a Barcelona match at the Camp Nou, incognito, and thus he swears the desire he feels to be here, to debut against Madrid not only because he’s desperate for redemption but to make Barça soar, is genuine.  Not manufactured.

Indeed he claims that when news reached him via his agent, Pep Guardiola’s brother Pere, that the transfer would still take place he cried in relief that Barça hadn’t backed away from the deal after THAT bite on Chiellini. 

“I thought I’d ruined my career.”

It’s all stuff the fans will love. At base level it just happens to be true.

“I’m at the club I always wanted to play for and If I could do well enough to retire here it’d make my career perfect,” he’s said since arriving.

Heard it before, of course.

Fat chance of a debut

Suárez’s fellow ex-Ajax alumnus, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, clawed and dragged his way to Barcelona out of love for the Guardiola playing style.

When I interviewed the Swede at the Barcelona training ground he talked of his adoration for this football school. That he wanted to submerge himself in the system and culture of the brand of football people would still be writing about, enjoying and trying to teach in 20 or 30 years. Remember how that one worked out?

What’s fascinating about this Pandora’s Box of a player is that the lid has been closed for months now. We’ve seen glimpses – goals against Oman, forcing an Saudi Arabian own goal in the friendly against Uruguay, and a couple for Barça B against an Indonesian youth select mean that he’s now scored 35 times in his last 38 club and international matches.

But his rehabilitation as a player (“When I came on in the Gamper presentation match for Barcelona I didn’t feel like their player, it was like I was just a guest”) has largely been done in secret. Closed doors training.

Luis Enrique’s ‘he’s NOT fat!’ outburst a few days ago stems from the images of the Indonesia U19 match, beamed around the world on Barça TV, which certainly didn’t show the Uruguayan at his leanest.

But given how often managers talk about players getting the last part of their fitness from playing, not training, perhaps that’s not wholly surprising. Certainly he looks more svelte now.

El Clasico Madrid 2015

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His fellow players have been knocked out by his training. Hold on …no NOT by punches!

Gerard Piqué marveled, the other day, at Suárez’s incredible ability to make the ball fall to his feet time and time again when players tackle him, seem to have the ball but, somehow, it ends up in him winning three consecutive rebounds off defender’s boots or shins and a goal-bound shot.

For his part the striker says: “You see the matches and you know their quality but when you train with Xavi and Iniesta and Messi you see them making passes which you think are totally impossible and when they pull them off it stops you in your tracks.”

There’s also been teasing. Oh yes.

“Don’t bite me…!” has laughingly been thrown at him if a defender wins a challenge in training. Incident free so far.

But Suárez admits that he “can feel the anxiety, the impatience to help the team and to demonstrate my worth to the coach, rising” as the D-Day approaches.

Whether that’s a factor which Luis Enrique needs to take into account – ie Suárez sitting on the bench getting more and more uptight in a Clásico and liable to unleash his adrenaline in an inadvisable way or beginning the match having built up to it knowing he’s playing – is up to Lucho. A big judgement call.

What’s clear is that whether behind every great striker there’s a great woman, there needs to be one to counsel, guide and calm this one.

Maybe Barcelona should put Sofía on a consultancy wage, just to ensure that their prickly, unpredictable new striker stays on the right path.

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Graham Hunter’s La Liga preview: A 4/1 shot that could make the Barcelona v Celta Vigo game more interesting this weekend

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Granada v Real Madrid, Saturday 3pm

Joaquin Caparrós is generally a manager who’ll keep a team in a league position above expectations, who isn’t shy about using youth team products and whose work methods are demanding enough that, often, the coaches who come after him at a given club can benefit greatly from a properly-run and motivated environment.

However, if he’s the guy you are looking for to regularly giant-kill Madrid or Barcelona then probably better look elsewhere.

Even at Sevilla and Athletic in eras when, arguably, they might have taken more scalps Madrid would regularly put four or give past his sides and only lose once in a blue moon.

It is sad to say but the impression has grown, over the seasons, that he lacks belief in his own (or his squad’s) capacity to knock over the big guys. Like he’s a little lost in admiration.

Not an impression diminished yesterday when he admitted: “The problem is that Madrid arrive at the top of their form and they are impressive. They’ve so many ways to beat you – via all-out attack, counter-attack, strategic tactics, set plays or individual brilliance. All I ask is that we don’t let them walk all over us.”

  • Madrid have 11 different scorers this season. Ronaldo’s scored more on his own than most decent teams have this term and the tale of the tape reads: Madrid – Scored 33, Granada – Scored 6.

El Blackoutico! Money-Back if there's a goal inside 15 minutes of Real Madrid v Barcelona

You do the arithmetic. Rested players like Ronaldo, Kroos, Modric Iker, Pepe and Sergio Ramos all return and there’s little to suggest they won’t return from Andalucia with three points and, likely, three more goals. With Liverpool on the horizon you can bet Ancelotti will use all three subs and Chicharito’s goals-to-minutes ratio is very good.

Granada 12/1, Real Madrid 2/9, Draw 5/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Atlético Madrid v Córdoba – Saturday 5pm

Los de Córdoba got a point last week, the equaliser handled into the Real Sociedad net by Newcastle flop Xisco. The goal came with three minutes left and it marked new coach Miroslav Djukic’s debut in charge after succeeding the dreadfully treated Albert Ferrer.

You could cook up an idea that this was a breakthrough moment, if you really, really tried. But the moment will be broken this weekend.

Not only are Córdoba away to the Spanish champions, they catch Atleti in that ‘bear with sore paw’ mood. The Spanish league awards were announced about 12 hours before the Ballon D’Or long lists and los Colchoneros were not only badly ignored, they were treated humiliatingly. Thibaut Courtois, Diego Godin, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Koke, Gabi, Diego Costa – were all completely ignored in the domestic awards and only Courtois, Costa and Diego Simeone are on the FIFA long-lists.

Bet your bottom dollar the ‘we’ll show all of them’ mentality has been stoked up to ramming speed over the last couple of days.

  • Atleti are being branded ‘violent’ and the fact that 90% + of their goals come from set plays is being mocked and diminished as an achievement. That, too, will fuel their anger.

Djukic likes his team to defend as a block, he’s an intense coach in the very same style as Simeone. But Atleti are beginning to find their tempo, Antoine Griezmann has the monkey off his back via a goal last week, both Godin and Miranda remain good set-piece bets to score and the champions should put Cordoba firmly in place.

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Fred and Neymar

Barcelona v Celta Vigo – Saturday 7pm

The last time Celta won away to Barcelona it was two months before the attack on Pearl Harbour, the US hadn’t entered World War II and the Camp Nou was 16 years away from hosting its first match.

Not all that encouraging if you are thinking of putting all your piggy bank savings on the Galicians to inflict only Barca’s second league defeat of the season.

But then there’s the ‘Football, bloody hell!’ factor (© Alex Ferguson)

Banana skins should be yellow-ish, not sky blue like the Celta jerseys – yet perhaps that’s precisely what Celta represent if there are any ‘we’re feeling sorry for ourselves’ feelings left over on the good ship Barcelona after the Clasico mauling.

For starters, this is the club Luis Enrique coached to 9th place last season before answering the calll ‘home’. How traditional it would be for Eduardo ‘Toto’ Berizzo to inspire his squad with: ‘HE thinks he’s too good for you all… YOUR work got him to the Camp Nou and a big fat salary. ‘And he didn’t take any of you with him!! ‘Well, we’ll show that git!!’

It’s the stuff of a thousand team talks. But occasionally it works.

For those who look for ‘signs’ before a shock Barcelona’s apocalyptic horseman in that scenario would be Nolito (4/1 anytime). Raised and trained at the Camp Nou, always promising but almost never given a chance, the striker has been one of those glorious late bloomers.

After joining Benfica he found his goal boots. Now at Celta it was under Luis Enrique that he kicked on again.

  • Nolito got 14 in 35 last season, he has five in nine this term and Spain’s assistant manager Toni Grande recently admitted that he and Vicente del Bosque are tempted to pick him for the national team when it faces World Champions Germany in Vigo in a couple of weeks’ time.

“We won’t change our style which is to pressure high up the pitch, to try to ‘own’ possession and to attack,” Berizzo promises. “Try to defend at the Camp Nou and the game can feel like it’s eternal.”

No Iniesta for Barcelona, injured, but perhaps the up-side is Luis Suárez’ Camp Nou competitive debut. His stats currently read: two goals, two goal assists in his three matches for his new club. What odds on him hitting the net just to spice up his already extraordinary story?

Meanwhile, Neymar (above) has 11 goals in 11 starts this season – no reason he shouldn’t continue that run. But a risky, nerve-testing match for Barcelona should they be at anything less than their best against Toto’s team.

Barcelona 1/8, Celta Vigo 20/1, Draw 7/1 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla – Sunday 11am

Speaking of the Ballon D’Or … surely the least excusable omission from the managerial long list, particularly as Jose Mourinho is there after a fallow year, is Sevilla boss Unai Emery.

Not only did he coach his side to the Europa League title last season, often playing thrillingly and eliminating 10 opponents to do so, if you take the Spanish league from February until this weekend then Emery’s Sevilla have won the highest points total (54) and currently sit equal top of the league – jointly with Barcelona.

What’s intriguing is that one of Sevilla’s few set backs, as they surged up the league last Spring, as they fell just short of making it into the Champions League was at Athletic.

The Basques were cooking by gas then and rather trampled on a tired Sevilla 3-1 with goals from Susaeta, Iker Muniain and the Manchester United-bound Ander Herrera.

Here’s the rub.

  • Athletic have had a miserable term and their 1-0 win at Almeria last week was their first three-pointer since August. They’ve only scored six while in midweek Sevilla put out a second XI in the Copa and thrashed Sabadell 6-1 away.

Now Athletic are coached by Ernesto Valverde whose job should be well safe. But it’s an election year in Bilbao and president Urrutia was down watching training on Thursday. He needs to present a winning ticket to the voters in the summer. Unai Emery is a Basque. And successful. IF his Sevilla were to win at the new San Mames then the pressure Valverde is under will increase and the thoughts that Emery could be tempted to come back to the Basque country would too.

Bacca, Aduriz, Gameiro and Iturraspe shape up as worthwhile ‘anytime’ scorers.

Athletic Bilbao 11/8, Sevilla 2/1, Draw 23/10 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

Villarreal v Valencia – Sunday 4pm

Two sides who are huge fun to watch. For Villarreal, given that Castellón won’t come out to play (stuck in the 4th division) this is their local derby match. It’s also a meeting where there are goals – 40 in the last 12 times the Yellow Submarine have played Los Che.

Away wins are also rare, only two ever when Valencia travel the hour journey north, the last one seven years ago.
Valencia are buzzing. Takeover complete, Peter Lim finally in charge and Álvaro Negredo fully fit again. They scored all three goals from set plays last week, four of their last six came this way, and Pablo Piatti, their tiny Argentinian wide-boy, is on the form of his life. He’s created all four of them.

Perhaps given that Villarreal still are without their tremendous, powerful centre half, Mateo Musacchio, and Victor Ruiz won’t play becuase of the €300,000 clause which Valencia put in his contract when selling him to their neighbours, the set-play is something to have a tickle at.

  • Otamendi, Paco Alcàcer, Dani Parejo and Mustafi all have headed goals for Los Che this season.

Between them the two sides have 23 different scorers this season so one could fancy both teams to score and Valencia to take home no worse than a point.

Villareal 11/10, Valencia 12/5, Draw 12/5 – Bet Now: Desktop | Mobile

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