Graham Hunter: David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny

Between the media and La Roja’s world champion players there has been much invoking of ‘four years ago’ over the last four days.

Back in South Africa, of course, Spain became the first team in history to win this trophy having lost the opening game.

En route to escaping the group the coincidence is that La Roja also needed to beat Chile back then, and did so.

David Villa (R) celebrates scoring first goal with Xabi Alonso (L) and Xavi 25/6/2010 00439885

COMETH THE HOUR: David Villa wheels away after scoring against Chile in 2010

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Thus it’s only natural, journalistically at least, for some to reach for comparisons and draw positive conclusions.

But there’s a snag.

  • Four years ago Spain lost 1-0 to Switzerland having totally dominated the game, shot at goal 24 times, put eight efforts on target, won 12 corners and suffered defeat only because it was one of those days when, as they say in La Liga, ‘the ball didn’t want to go in’.

Last Friday they were thrashed.

Four years ago Vicente Del Bosque’s men had Honduras, frankly a soft touch, as their second group rivals, and Chile third.

Chile also decided to abandon competitive football for the last 15 minutes of that game in Pretoria because they were sure that their progression was safe given the scoreline between Switzerland and Honduras and, at all costs, they didn’t want to surrender more goals to Spain. Del Bosque later called it the most placid 15 minutes of his tournament.

But let me remind anyone who’s forgotten the other parts of that game were anything but. Chile pressed and harassed like attack-dogs for the first chunk of the match, making their opponents feel like Marcelo Bielsa had somehow deployed 15 men on the pitch.

I fear it will be similar at the Maracana.

So, back to invoking the spirit of South Africa. I think it’s natural, but flawed.

Jean Beausejour (L) and Xabi Alonso in action 25/6/2010 00439884

SEEING RED: I’d expect this to be an aggressive game, in tackling and attacking

  • Betting: Slide into the latest Spain v Chile odds >

There are very few similarities and, already, del Bosque needs to be looking for men who are not stuck in the past – men of destiny.

The last two results in Brazil, defeated 3-0 by Brazil in the Confeds Cup a year ago and humiliated 5-1 in Salvador last week, have left La Roja looking like victims.

The air of invincibility has been stripped and, suddenly, those who cowered back will be queuing up to show that they are now the ‘fastest gun’.

It was ever thus. However ‘great’ you are/were, once the young bucks are after you the past counts for nothing.

As far as the world and European champions’ prospects go, Chile have one central tenet which is both welcome and threatening: they like to attack.

Spain have for the longest time been sick of teams who ‘park the bus’.

Those who attack La Roja reap benefits

The paradox is that the last two sides who have really ‘got after’ La Roja – Brazil and Holland – have reaped major benefits.

Xabi Alonso, Pedro, Juan Mata – each of them over the last 24 hours has spoken about the fact that Chile are a brave, daring and attacking side.

The word ‘aggressive’ has been used repeatedly too – all of which leads you to suppose that this might be yet another toe-to-toe match in this slugfest of a World Cup.

Good value for the fans.

They mean ‘aggressive’ in both senses of the word. In football terms every ball is a prisoner, energy is spent trying to overrun opponents and the team likes to buzz towards the opponent’s goal.

But they play by street rules.

Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal after scoring 5/6/2014 00817155

DANGER MEN: Chile’s Eduardo Vargas celebrates with Arturo Vidal

In the last three games against Spain, Chile have seen three red cards, two of which came in a relatively unimportant friendly which really boiled over.

Perhaps that was because having never beaten La Roja and having been 2-0 up in St Gallen, Switzerland, Chile were horrified at being hauled back and overtaken 3-2 in Autumn 2011.

It was one of those games which proved to Vicente del Bosque that the effects of the ‘Clásico war’ were dying down and the feeling of ‘all for one’ had been re-established between his players. They went on to prove him right by winning Euro 2012.

There was a moment in that game when Iniesta was being bullied at the edge of the pitch by Arturo Vidal. Instantly two pretty entrenched rivals, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Busquets, joined forces to rush across and ‘dive in’ on Iniesta’s behalf.

Danger men

There may be traces of that on Wednesday night. Players to watch for would include Iniesta who’s scored twice against Chile in the last three meetings and Eduardo Vargas. Vargas scored twice to rescue Chile in a pre-tournament friendly against Egypt which they threatened to lose and has also scored three times against Spain in the last three meetings.

By the day, training has gone from ghostly silent to boisterous and intense. The impact of the defeat against Holland was there, plain to see, but it has dissipated.

The words from del Bosque’s men have been bellicose. They want their pride restored, they want to get out of this group and, frankly, they think they will beat Chile.

I suspect they will. But this is one of those matches when if things go wrong, if nerves (of which there will be plenty) gnaw away at precision and confidence then the playing field will be pretty even.

David Villa

  • Betting: David Villa 9/5 to score anytime against Chile >

If David Villa doesn’t start then I’ll be confused. In training he’s looked sharper and sharper, he’s been scoring goals and right now he looks to be not only Spain’s all-time leading scorer but their most in-form striker.

This is a tournament for athletes. The weather, the tiredness of long flights – these are elements which give a premium to those who are strong, fast and quick to recover. As such there has to be a place, soon, for Javi Martínez in Spain’s attempts to retain their trophy.

This is a battle for survival. Expect the niceties to be abandoned. David Villa is a man from La Roja’s past – he may need to also be their man of destiny.

Graham Hunter is the author of ‘Spain: The Inside Story of La Roja’s Historic Treble’ and ‘Barca’. You can follow him on Twitter here

 

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Aston Villa v West Ham – Premier League Betting Preview

Kevin NolanAston Villa should be keen to secure a win here as their form at Villa Park in the Premier League has been disappointing so far this season and they have secure the least points at home than any other team, winning only twice. However West Ham have only secured two away wins this season so they may also struggle and it could be a tight game. The Villans have the odds in their favour at 13/8 to win however, with West Ham at 2/1.

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Premier League Betting Preview – Aston Villa v Newcastle

Paul LambertThese two struggling teams meet in the Premier League this evening with only a point separating them in the table. Newcastle have the slightly better record than Aston Villa though neither team have won a match in at least their last five games and times are tough, with the pressure on for both managers, particularly Paul Lambert.

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FA Cup Betting Preview – Millwall v Aston Villa

Aston VillaAston Villa will be keen to bounce back following their demise from the League Cup, with a better result in the FA Cup against Millwall this evening. The Lions will no doubt take confidence from the fact Paul Lambert’s side couldn’t get past League two outfit Bradford in their mid-week clash.

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Premier League Betting Preview – West Brom v Aston Villa

Romelu LukakuWest Brom have had a decent Premier League season so far and currently sit in the top 10. They will be hoping they can easily overcome a struggling Aston Villa side that have dropped into the relegation zone after a string of defeats.

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Premier League Betting Preview – Aston Villa v Southampton

Rickie LambertThis is a vital match at the bottom of the Premier League as The Saints travel to Villa Park to take on an Aston Villa side who’ve not registered a win in four matches. Southampton have the same record and with only a point seperating the two sides in the table, they will both be eager for a win.

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Bradford v Aston Villa – Capital One Cup Betting Preview

Gabriel AgbonlahorBradford should be entering their Capital One Cup semi-final in high spirits since knocking out two Premier League sides already, and if they are to defeat Aston Villa here they will be the first ever League 2 squad to eliminate three top-flight teams in the tournament. The odds are against Bradford however at 4/1 to win here, with Aston Villa our hot 8/11 favourite.

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Villa can take bragging rights

There is just one Premier League fixture on Sunday but there is plenty at stake in a West Midlands derby as Aston Villa host a West Bromwich Albion side riding high in the Premier League.

There are of course bigger rivals for the clubs in Birmingham City and Wolves but there will be no lack of intensity and commitment on Sunday afternoon as the players look to give the fans the bragging rights.

Both sides of course began the campaign with new managers, with Villa turning to Paul Lambert to turn things around after the dire reign of Alex McLeish, while the Baggies have turned to Steve Clarke after Roy Hodgson was appointed as the new England boss.

There is no doubt that Clarke has enjoyed the better of the starts with three wins already under his belt as the Baggies sit pretty in fourth place in the table, while Villa have won just once in the league this term and find themselves in 14th place on four points.

However, Villa can only have been boosted by a fantastic win at Manchester City in the Capital One Cup in midweek and they have been installed as 6/4 favourites in the match betting, with Albion priced at 2/1 while the draw is on offer at 9/4.

True, West Brom have won three times this season but all three victories have come at the Hawthorns and Clarke’s men were soundly beaten 3-0 by Fulham the last time on their travels.

Villa have looked far from convincing this season, beating Swansea well in their only win in the league but crumbling to a 4-1 defeat at Southampton the week after despite taking the lead.

However, that victory over City could be the catalyst that Lambert was looking for and Gabriel Agbonlahor showed he is fully recovered from the knee injury sustained in pre-season.

The 25-year-old bagged two goals in an impressive performance at the Etihad and is available at 13/2 as First/Last Goalscorer, although whether he has done enough to earn a start remains to be seen, with 7/4 on offer as an Anytime Scorer.

Darren Bent (5/1 First/Last and 11/8 Anytime) and Christian Benteke (6/1 and 13/8) have been the preferred strikers so far but may now be anxiously looking over their shoulders.

Competition for places has got to be a good thing though and could well work in Lambert’s favour whichever way he goes, although the Villa boss will be without Stephen Ireland and Joe Bennett, offset by the news Brett Holman has recovered from a knee problem.

West Brom are not without their own injury problems though as Liam Ridgewell, James Morrison, Steven Reid, Jermaine Thomas and Goran Popov are all doubtful, while Peter Odemwingie is definitely out as he completes his ban following his sending off against Fulham.

Villa are not the sort of side, not yet anyway, that seem ready to batter an opponent out of sight, regardless of the venue but, although West Brom can certainly give them a game, they should have the momentum going into this fixture to take the three points.

The Baggies go into this one on the back of being  beaten 2-1 by Liverpool at the Hawthorns in the Capital One Cup, while their away form leaves a little to be desired.

However, they can at least get on the scoreboard and 2-1 has been a popular scoreline of late with five of the last six results ending that way – three times to Villa – and that is priced at a tempting 17/2.

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Villa to put league woes aside

The League Cup, rebranded as the Capital One Cup for the next four years, can be a difficult beast at this stage of the season. The second round fixtures take place on Tuesday night as most of the Premier League sides (except those involved in Europe) enter the competition, but many managers choose to field their fringe players and youngsters in the competition and as such there is plenty of potential for a few surprises.

However, there are a few teams desperate for victories to kick start their seasons, and one tie that stands out in this respect is Aston Villa’s home tie against League One side Tranmere Rovers.

Expectation levels have been raised at Villa Park following the arrival of Paul Lambert as manager but the Birmingham side are yet to secure a solitary point after two Premier League games. Lambert will be well aware that a home loss against Tranmere will not help matters and the Villa boss may resist fielding a weakened team in order to pick up a first win of the season.

A win for the hosts is priced at 4/9 and given the importance of registering a result it is hard to see anything other than a win for the Premier League side, the draw is 10/3 and a Tranmere victory is 6/1.

Top flight newcomers Southampton impressed despite defeat in their opening weekend contest with champions Manchester City but were dealt a Premier League reality check at the weekend as they slumped to a home defeat to Wigan. Saints boss Nigel Adkins is an astute manager and, like Lambert, will be aware of the importance of securing that first result. The St Mary’s side travel to League One high-fliers Stevenage on Tuesday and look good value at 11/10 to secure the win, despite the fact Stevenage are unbeaten in the league so far.

A double on Southampton and Aston Villa pays out at around 2/1 and this could well be worth some consideration ahead of Tuesday’s ties.

Potential upsets

As mentioned previously there is plenty of potential for a few upsets in this stage of the competition so here are a few games where the underdogs could come out on top.  Obviously, by definition an upset is a result that is hard to predict but hopefully these selections will provide food for thought for your Capital One Cup betting plans!

Sheffield Wednesday remain unbeaten after three Championship games following their promotion last season and the Owls host Fulham on Tuesday night.

Wednesday have won both their games at Hillsborough so far and will be backed by a big, vocal crowd when they take on Premier League opposition in the shape of the Cottagers. It remains to be seen what kind of team Fulham boss Martin Jol will field of course but after a relatively solid start (a big win over Norwich and a narrow defeat at Manchester United) the Dutchman could be tempted to make some changes for the trip to South Yorkshire and Wednesday will be keen to demonstrate their promotion credentials by impressing against the west Londoners. Wednesday are 15/8 to see off Fulham, the draw is 12/5 and a win for the visitors is priced at 11/8.

Nottingham Forest impressed at Bolton on Friday night and they welcome Wigan Athletic to the City Ground on Tuesday. Wigan boss Roberto Martinez saw his side lose to League Two opposition last season in the shape of Swindon Town and will be wary of Forest, but may still be tempted to make changes following the win over Southampton at the weekend. Forest remain unbeaten, winning their only home game so far, in the Championship and are certainly capable of beating the Latics, especially if Martinez tinkers with his side. A win for Forest is priced at 6/4, the draw is 12/5 and Wigan are 17/10 to secure victory.

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