Who will win race for top four?

Posted on April 18, 2011 by SoccerCapper

Manchester City managed to book their place in the FA Cup final with a memorable 1-0 win over rivals Manchester United at Wembley on Saturday, but they must now quickly switch their focus back on staying in the top four as the battle between the Eastlands club and Spurs for Champions League football next season hots up over the coming weeks (City 1/4, Spurs 12/5 – Top 4 finish).

With just over a month of the Premier League season remaining, we are no closer to knowing who will secure that lucrative fourth-place finish and a spot in Europe’s top club competition for next term, but here we get our crystal ball out to take a look at both club’s run-ins to see if we can work out who stands the best chance.

City remaining fixtures:

Blackburn (a)
West Ham (h)
Everton (a)
Spurs (h)
Stoke (h)
Bolton (a)

Spurs’ remaining fixtures:

Arsenal (h)
West Brom (h)
Chelsea (a)
Blackpool (h)
Man City (a)
Liverpool (a)
Birmingham (h)

A quick scan of the remaining games for both teams throws up some mouth-watering showdowns but it’s fair to say City, with a game less to play, have the slightly easier run-in.

Spurs’ last seven games begin with one of their biggest of the season when local rivals Arsenal visit White Hart Lane. The Gunners remain – just about – in the title race following their 1-1 draw against Liverpool on Sunday but we can see a Spurs win in this on Wednesday to effectively end Arsenal’s hopes of finishing top of the pile.

Following that don’t expect West Brom to pick up anything when they arrive at the Lane on Saturday but the trip to Chelsea next up could be the day when City gain the upper hand in this particular battle. A home win is the prediction here which means only a win over Blackpool on May 7 will do for Harry Redknapp’s men. But with the Seasiders absolutely desperate for points themselves, Ian Holloway’s side can come away from London with a point to leave Spurs firmly in fifth with just three games to go.

A draw in the showdown with City is the not-so adventurous prediction in the big game between the two on May 10 before a trip to Liverpool is next for Spurs. We can also see this ending all square meaning a win on the final day against Birmingham will be too little, too late.

City’s final league games start with a very winnable trip to struggling Blackburn next Monday.

Roberto Mancini’s side were poor at Liverpool last week but expect them to have enough to see off woefully out-of-form Rovers, who are in freefall and failed to muster a shot on target at Everton on Saturday until injury time!

Next up is a home game with West Ham, who are also fighting for their lives at the bottom. However, again a City win looks on the cards here in front of their own fans for the first time since the Cup semi-final triumph.

One of City’s toughest games in the final month is undoubtedly the trip to Everton on May 7, but with the Toffees safe and without a chance of qualifying for Europe, they may have already switched off by then so a vital away win at Goodison Park should be do-able.

The pivotal clash in the fourth-place battle is obviously the midweek game between the pair on Tuesday May 10 and expect there to be little to choose between the sides at Eastlands with a draw the most likely outcome.

Up next is a repeat of the Cup final against Stoke and a second City triumph over the Potters in as many weeks is envisaged here to leave them on the brink of fourth with just a final test at Bolton to come. We can see Mancini’s men picking up a point on the day at the Reebok Stadium to ensure fourth place is theirs and Champions League football secured.

So, by these predictions we calculate City will finish fourth on 70 points while Spurs will have to settle for fifth – five points behind on 65.

Well that’s how we see it panning out anyway.

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Rooney returns to restore order

Posted on April 18, 2011 by SoccerCapper

Manchester United can banish their Wembley heartache and return to winning ways in the Premier League when they travel to take on Newcastle United on Tuesday.

The league leaders saw their hopes of a Treble go up in smoke when they were beaten by local rivals Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-finals on Saturday but can resume normal service on Tyneside.

Old Trafford boss Sir Alex Ferguson has historically made a point of highlighting the need for his team to be in contention for the title in advance of the Easter period and there is enough evidence to suggest they should come through an awkward assignment in the north east and stay on track for a record 19th domestic crown.

The game’s longest-serving manager will have taken some consolation from Arsenal’s failure to beat Liverpool on Sunday, meaning the north Londoners now trail United by six points, and the return of Wayne Rooney is a crucial shot in the arm.

The England striker was inspirational without scoring in the Champions League decider against Chelsea at Old Trafford and his mobility will cause a vulnerable Newcastle defence plenty of headaches.

Ferguson’s thinly-veiled criticism of Dimitar Berbatov’s profligacy at Wembley on Saturday would also lend itself to the suggestion that the 22-goal Bulgarian will make way for the returning Rooney – and reignite conjecture about his future at Old Trafford.

United have looked far-from-convincing on their travels in the Premier League – they have only managed five wins – and they can expect a strong opening from a Newcastle side fresh from a nine-day break.

Alan Pardew has already said he will not spare good friend Ferguson any sentiment and he has his own motive for picking up three vital points given that Newcastle are just six points off third-from-bottom Blackpool.

Inconsistency has cost the Magpies on home soil and it is difficult to envisage which Newcastle will turn up when United roll into town.

The 18/5 about Newcastle spoiling the party for United makes for little appeal, but, by the same token, the 7/10 on offer for a Manchester United win is hardly a price to whet the appetite.

The 17/2 about Newcastle in the half-time lead and fail to win market, which also factors in the draw, could appeal to the more speculative punter anticipating a strong start from the side before a rally from the visitors.

An alternative way in could be to take the 8/1 about Manchester United to win from behind or, at a far juicier price of 25/1, take the Newcastle-Manchester United outcome in the half-time full-time market.

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QPR out to defy history

Posted on April 17, 2011 by SoccerCapper

There is just one game on Monday and Queens Park Rangers can take another step towards the promised land of the Premier League when they host Derby County at Loftus Road, with kick off at 1945 BST.

It is no surprise to see Rangers installed as the 8/15 favourites in the match betting as they have been the standout performers in the Championship this season and hold an impressive home record, suffering just one defeat all season.

That came against Watford back in December but with just five draws and 12 goals conceded, a league high 14 home victories – and 41 goals scored in the process – the Hoops have been a powerful force in west London.

Don’t expect a lack of focus from the leaders either on Monday, Neil Warnock will not allow that to happen with the job yet to be completed, and the three points might be enough to secure promotion before they next take to the field – Norwich need to beat Ipswich later in the week to delay what looks like the inevitable.

Of course the victory would open up a 10-point gap over Cardiff in second and it looks a tall order for Derby to get a result, considering they have struggled this season and are not yet mathematically safe from the drop.

A win would go a long way to at least guaranteeing Championship survival, although with an eight-point cushion over third-from-bottom Scunthorpe there will be plenty that think the Rams are safe already.

But a can case be made for the Rams to shock the leaders on their own patch and reward the punters who want to take the 11/2 on Nigel Clough’s men, while the draw is available at 3/1.

County have caused one or two surprises of late in a mixed run of form with home wins over Swansea and last time out against Leeds but were held by struggles Crystal Palace and Coventry.

A 2-1 defeat at Middlesbrough and a 4-1 hammering at Cardiff suggests that Derby’s best form has come at Pride Park, borne out by the fact that they have won just five and lost 10 on their travels this term.

Only Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer than County on the road this term, which is not the kind of form sides want to take to the league’s best defence.

However, history is on Derby’s side as they have lost only four times in the league at Loftus Road and not since 1982, when QPR were last promoted to the top flight.

The Rams also hold a 16-12 record in head-to-heads, although the majority of matches have ended in a stalemate with 17 draws between the sides, and fans may be happy to take a repeat of the reverse fixture.

Clough’s men looked set for the three points on August 28 at Pride Park but Patrick Agyemang and Jamie Mackie both scored in injury time to salvage a point (16/1 a repeat scoreline).

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Arsenal to keep title race alive

Posted on April 16, 2011 by SoccerCapper

Arsenal host Liverpool on Sunday hoping to keep their hopes of lifting the Premier League title (Arsenal 9/2 Premier League outright) alive.

The Gunners are seven points behind the Red Devils in the table but have game in hand and, crucially, United are yet to visit the Emirates Stadium.

A run of three successive draws looked to have stalled Arsenal’s title charge but Wenger knows if they can follow-up last weekend’s 3-1 win over Blackpool with victory over the Reds (Arsenal 8/11, draw 13/5, Liverpool 19/5) they can cut United’s lead to just four points.

It has been an eventful week for the Gunners with American businessman Stan Kroenke launching a full take-over of the club.

Wenger insisted though, following a meeting with Kroenke, that we will maintain full control over team affairs and continue his policy of recruiting and developing younger, cheaper players.

“We have a certain philosophy of football and we will continue to develop that and to play even better. We will continue to run the club like it has been done until now – that means live within our resources, produce our own resources and develop our football team,” said the Frenchman.

The Gunners have a good record against Kenny Dalglish’s men (Arsenal HT/FT 7/4), having lost only three of their past 19 encounters with the Reds, including none of the last seven.

They haven’t tasted defeat at home against the Merseysiders since Liverpool triumphed 1-0 (1-0 Liverpool correct score – 9-1) at Highbury in February 2000.

Robin van Persie (9/2 – first goalscorer) has hit 20 goals in his last 21 Premier League starts and is poised to make his 150th Premier League appearance for the Gunners.

Liverpool have a form forward player of their own though in £35million man Andy Carroll (15/2 – first goalscorer) who hit his first two goals for the Anfield club in their impressive 3-0 win over Manchester City on Monday night. He also struck the only goal in a 1-0 for his former club Newcastle at the Emirates back in November.

Liverpool are now well in the running for a Europa League place (Liverpool 1/4 top six finish) after a dramatic upturn in form under caretaker boss Kenny Dalglish and can close the gap on fifth placed Spurs to just two points with a win.

Prediction: home win @ 8/11
Value bet: Arsenal 2-1 @ 7/1

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Can the Trotters beat the Potters?

Posted on April 16, 2011 by SoccerCapper

With all the attention surrounding Saturday’s eagerly-awaited all-Manchester FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, we should not forget that two of the Premier League’s middle of the road sides are hoping to make some history by reaching the final when Bolton face Stoke on Sunday afternoon (4pm Kick-off).

Owen Coyle is looking to guide the Wanderers to their first FA Cup final since 1958 – when they defeated Manchester United 2-0 at Wembley thanks to a double from Nat Lofthouse.

Sadly, Lofthouse passed away earlier this year so what a fitting tribute it would be to the Trotters legend if his beloved Bolton could reach the final where, ironically, they could be up against the Red Devils (13/8 Man U v Bolton Name The Finalists) just like 53 years ago.

Coyle will be missing the potency of the cup-tied on-loan striker Daniel Sturridge so he will have to pitch Rodrigo or Ivan Klasnic (15/8 Anytime Goalscorer) into his starting XI for the game.

Midfielder Mark Davies is expected to be included in the squad after returning to training following an ankle problem. But Stuart Holden, Sean Davis and Sam Ricketts remain sidelined through injury.

However, four-times FA Cup winners Bolton (9/2 Outright) go into the contest in fairly good form having kept six clean sheets in their last nine FA Cup games and they have lost only two of their last nine matches in all competitions.

Stoke have never played in an FA Cup final (Evens To Qualify) after falling at the semi-final stage in 1899 and in the 1970-71 and 1971-72 seasons when, on both occasions, they lost to Arsenal in a replay.

Potters boss Tony Pulis will stick with Denmark goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen, who replaces regular number one Asmir Begovic, because he has been a regular in previous rounds.

Striker John Carew (8/1 First Goalscorer) could come into contention following a four-match absence with a back problem.

Stoke have won, lost and drawn in their last three Premier League games, but have managed to score in their last nine games against Bolton (19/10 To keep A Clean Sheet) to give them hope.

Bolton enjoy the better of their previous FA Cup meetings with three wins from five, with one draw and one win for Stoke, while both sides have won on home soil in this season?s Premier League encounters.

Looking at the record between the two sides it is impossible to pick a winner and for that reason I am expecting it to be a long afternoon at Wembley with a penalty shoot-out (10/1 Bolton & Stoke To Win On Penalties) not beyond the realms of possibility.

Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 9/4
Value Bet: 1-1 Correct Score @ 11/2.

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Treble tilt reaches Wembley

Posted on April 15, 2011 by SoccerCapper

Manchester United fans are getting the feeling of deja vu as Sir Alex Ferguson’s treble-chasing squad (6/1 to win Premier League, FA Cup & Champions League) prepare to face rivals Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley on Saturday.

The Red Devils, who scooped all three major trophies in 1999, will have to play at the remodelled ‘home of football’ three times in the next six weeks if they are to repeat their historic feat while neighbours City would be happy to earn one more trip back as they bid to end a trophyless drought of 35 years (11/5 Manchester City in FA Cup Outright).

Ferguson has got the unshakeable belief that his class of 2011 can do it, while the presence of ‘99 veterans Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs can only enhance the confidence within the dressing room that has been recently buoyed by the return to fitness of Rio Ferdinand.

The England centre back has never won the FA Cup and is desperate to keep his place in the United line-up, despite picking up a knock in Tuesday night’s Champions League win over Chelsea.

Ferguson has declared an almost fully-fit squad for the Wembley clash with only Darren Fletcher (virus) and Wayne Rooney (suspended) absent from those regulars who would have certainly played.

Dimitar Berbatov (11/2 First Goalscorer), who missed the decisive penalty as United crashed out to Everton at this stage two years ago, will probably be given a chance to earn his redemption by Ferguson, although the Bulgarian’s 20 Premier League goals so far this term have already done that for most fans.

Antonio Valencia (10/1) is another anticipated change to the midweek line-up while ferguson hinted that midfielder Anderson is back in his plans after coming through an hour of reserve team action on Wednesday night.

City are without 19-goal leading scorer Carlos Tevez after he sustained an untimely hamstring injury against Liverpool on Monday night, leaving boss Roberto Mancini with a dilemma over who he entrusts with the task of leading the forward line.

Out of form January signing Edin Dzeko (15/2 First Goalscorer) was jeered by City fans at Anfield as he struggled to get into the game while unpredictable summer recruit Mario Balotelli (7/1) still flatters to deceive more often than not.

Mancini can recall defender Micah Richards and you can bet Nigel de Jong starts after inexplicably being left out on Monday.

The Dutchman’s presence in midfield will ensure City have some bite and presence in an area where they were steamrollered by Liverpool in the first half.

History shows that there tend to be few goals when these two sides meet – the scorelines have been 2-1, 3-1, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-1 since Mancini took charge with City winning his first derby at the helm.

And with no Rooney or Tevez to provide a flash of brilliance to break the deadlock a half-time draw (8/5 0-0 in HT Score) and a low scoring affair (4/6 Under 2.5 Goals) look highly likely.

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Seasiders set for Latics battle

Posted on April 15, 2011 by SoccerCapper

Blackpool manager Ian Holloway Points in the Premier League are priceless at the moment with plenty to play for at this business end of the season. Saturday throws up five games in the top flight with all 10 teams desperate to pick up three points.

In arguably the game with the most at stake, Blackpool take on Wigan Athletic in a crucial game for both sides (Blackpool 13/10, draw 23/10, Wigan 19/10).

After an impressive start to the season, the honeymoon period is well and truly over for manager Ian Holloway and his players.

Without a win in their last five outings, the Seasiders have been drawn into the relegation battle and now they sit just above the bottom three in the Premier League table.

Wigan are rock bottom of the table but could leapfrog the Tangerines with three points at Bloomfield Road.

This is bound to be a tight and scrappy contest but Wigan have been here before and they should pick up the invaluable victory on Saturday.

Birmingham City are another side desperate for points and they will be confident going into their game against a Sunderland side who have got the end of season syndrome (Birmingham 5/4, draw 11/5, Sunderland 21/10).

The Black Cats have not won in their last 10 games and from being in contention for a European qualification spot, they now find themselves looking over their shoulders.

With the St Andrews crowd behind them, the Blues should win this game and ease their relegation fears.

West Ham United continue to battle for survival and they take on Aston Villa at Upton Park on Saturday (West Ham 5/4, draw 23/10, Villa 2/1).

Villa have appeared to have turned a corner after their victory over Newcastle United last weekend but they are still just five points above the relegation zone.

The Hammers will be hurting after they were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Bolton in their last outing.

With a fully fit squad at his disposal, Villa boss Gerard Houllier should be leaving Upton Park with a win to extend the gap between themselves and the drop.

Everton have been strong finishers in recent seasons and once again a poor start to the campaign has let the Toffees down.

The Merseyside club face Blackburn Rovers on Saturday at Goodison Park in a massive game for the visitors (Everton 4/6, draw 5/2, Blackburn 21/5).

Rovers have struggled under manager Steve Kean and now the Lancashire side run the risk of playing Championship football next season.

Everton are comfortable in seventh place in the Premier League table and with Blackburn battling for their lives, Rovers might just bag a point at Goodison.

Chelsea will be looking to put the disappointment of the Champions League quarter-final defeat to Manchester United behind them when they take on West Brom at the Hawthorns (West Brom 21/5, draw 11/4, Chelsea 8/13).

The pressure is building on all concerned at Stamford Bridge with manager Carlo Anclotti walking a tightrope and striker Fernando Torres yet to open his Blues goalscoring account.

With no silverware up for grabs it might be hard for Chelsea to get motivated for this one, however the club must make sure they qualify for the Champions League this season.

The Baggies are never an easy proposition at the Hawthorns and they might just compound Ancelotti?s misery by holding the Blues to a draw on Saturday.