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Graham Hunter: Real and Barca to come through tricky tests with this 17/2 double

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FC Barcelona v Valencia, Saturday 3pm

At the Camp Nou, just over a year ago Valencia stuck their leg out and Barcelona tripped flat on their face.

Effectively it was the defeat which cost Barça the title.

A win would have seen them pipping Atleti to win the league on goals scored.

Barça led 1-0, they pulled back to 2-2 but ended up losing at home to Valencia for the first time since Luis Enrique played against them in autumn 2003.

Camp Nou

In fact Los Che’s previous six visits had all been defeats and they’d conceded a whopping 21 goals.

Paco Alcácer scored the winner that day and it may be worth noting that he has 3 in his last 5 since returning from injury and 12 for club and country this season.

Both Celta Vigo and Málaga have managed 0-1 wins at Camp Nou in the last few months – mainly by playing a terrific, but exhausting, pressing game which capitalises on one of those rare days when not only do Luis Enrique’s team make a single crucial mistake in defence but, somehow, look nervy and imprecise in front of goal.

So, if you fancy Valencia, how to calibrate your chances?

Last week in Sevilla Barcelona committed two pretty horrible mistakes, Claudio Bravo and Gerard Piqué ending up with fingerprints on the crimes, to toss away a 2-0 lead.

But in Paris on Wednesday, despite regularly gifting the ball to PSG, Barcelona finished devastatingly well.
It does feel like there’s been a drop in concentration in using the ball – perhaps Valencia will have their scoring chances.

Lionel Messi

FYI: Leo Messi has played Valencia twenty times scoring fifteen goals [nine of them at the Camp Nou]. However he’s only actually hit the net in eight of those twenty matches – ie less than half the time.

His goals come in clutches, sometimes threes and fours. Thus, if he scores and you’re ‘in-play’ you may fancy backing him to do so again?

FYI[ii]: Diego Alves has always loved testing himself against Barcelona. Not only was he super in Barcelona’s 90th minute away win earlier this season [Sergio Busquets] he has often played absolutely unbelievably at the Camp Nou. Is he good enough to thwart Messi, Suárez and Neymar??

FYI[iii] Kick off times really shouldn’t be important in a grown-up world but, hey, astrologists still make a damn fine living from making things up in the newspapers so the world’s not perfect. Ergo, the last time Barcelona lost at home it was a Saturday and the kick off time was 4pm Spanish.

Just like this….. Again, if you are on this match ‘in-play’ don’t be fooled into believing that if it’s a draw with just a couple of minutes left, and with a return Champions League quarter final coming up on Tuesday, that Barcelona will ‘settle’.

They only have a two point lead over Madrid and nothing, nothing at all, other than a win here will serve if they are going to win the title.

Valencia choose from: Diego Alves, Yoel, Cancelo, Barragán, Mustafi, Otamendi, Vezo, Orbán, Gayà, Javi Fuego, Felipe Augusto, Parejo, André Gomes, Feghouli, Rodrigo, De Paul, Negredo and Alcácer.

Neymar is back on goal form, Parejo’s worth a small investment, Alcácer too. Major pressure on the league leaders. None of the three results would be a shock but … perhaps Barcelona to demonstrate how much they want this title?

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and Barcelona to win at 7/5 

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Deportivo v Atlético, Saturday 5pm

It’s a central theme of Atlético’s title-defence season – key players missing because of suspension.

Not disastrous here, only Gabi is out, but he’ll be followed by fellow midfielder Mario Suárez on Wednesday against Real Madrid. All of which means that a pretty remarkable story should keep growing.

Tiago said his goodbyes to fans and team mates after the Champions League final having failed to renew his contract with Atleti – a deal with Chelsea was as good as signed. But the Portuguese never put pen to paper, financial terms and his fear about how much playing time he’d get brought things to a grinding halt.

His agent got back in touch with Atleti and Diego Simeone insisted to the men in grey suits that he be re-hired.

Nice call Cholo. The Portuguese should start against Depor, he’s played 25 games in la Liga this season and, with five, is third top scorer for the reigning champions in their league defence.

It’s also his best goal total for eight years.

It may guide you that in six of the last seven Depor v Atleti fixtures at the Riazor there’s only been a single goal victory margin, or no goals at all.

Atleti choose from:
Moyá, Oblak, Godín, Siqueira, Gámez, Ansaldi, Juanfran, Miranda, Giménez, Tiago, Koke, Raúl García, Arda, Saúl, Cani, Griezmann, Raúl Jiménez and Fernando Torres.

No Mandzukic, no Mario, no Gabi – training suggests a likely XI of Oblak; Juanfran, Giménez, Godín, Gámez; Tiago; Raúl García, Koke, Saúl, Arda; Griezmann

New coach Victor Sánchez brings back Luisinho and Juan Domínguez but Helder Postiga’s still out.

Victor chooses from:
Lux, Manuel Pablo, Álex Bergantiños, José Rodríguez, Lucas Pérez, Medunjanin, Juan Domínguez, Juanfran, Sidnei, Fabricio, Cuenca, Laure, Luisinho, Toché, Cavaleiro, Oriol Riera, Lopo and Fariña.

Hard and hostile for Atleti here – might they drop two points in a score draw? Not an outlandish idea I’d say.

Hunter’s Tip: Both teams to score and the match to finish as a draw at 7/2

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Real Madrid v Málaga, Saturday 7pm

The Málaga brand of football is pretty much like what they used to say about Guinness – sound as a pound on home territory, doesn’t travel well.

How Málaga need a widget.

In fact the this mob have proved the old Robert Louis Stevenson thing about it being ‘better to travel hopefully than to arrive’

Santiago Bernabeu

In 32 visits to Real Madrid’s ground their happy northward journey has ended, embarrassingly, without a single victory.

However, might the fact that Madrid have the ‘Derbi’ against Atletico in the Champions League on Wednesday give Javi Gracia’s sprightly, fun-to-watch team an edge?

Might it, also, make them a bit more chipper about their chances that Karim Benzema, eight goals in his last nine appearances against Málaga, is out injured?

How much do an away win at the Camp Nou and a home draw with champions Atlético [last week] strip away the ‘beaten before we take the field’ malaise which affects so many of La Liga’s minor teams at the Bernabéu?

Those are some of your decisions.

“The fact that Málaga won at the Camp Nou has focussed our attention on them, it means we’ll not take them lightly” Carlo Ancelotti promised on Friday

In midweek Madrid were thwarted by a superb Jan Oblak performance. Without the 22 year old Slovakian performing heroics Carlo Ancelotti’s men would have scored three, maybe four times.

Is Carlos Kameni, a little flappy last week, capable of the same? Having made a habit of beating Madrid while at Espanyol [three of his first four game against them were wins] he’s tasted nothing but defeat in this fixture since joining Málaga.

Thirty two conceded in fifteen games. If this helps your punt you can be wholly sure that Gracia’s team will play to win. They’ll press, they’ll try to pass the ball forward whenever possible and they’ll not abandon their front-foot, passing game Cristiano Ronaldo I hate to emphasise what John Cleese would call ‘the bleedin’ obvious’ but Cristiano Ronaldo is your ‘go-to’ man here. One of his best records is against Málaga – 13 in 14 meetings.

Might Modric be a dark-horse ‘anytime’ bet? He was pinging the ball at goal in midweek – shooting boots on. Should be fun, should be open … should be a home win by a two goal margin.

Madrid choose from: Casillas, Keylor Navas, Pacheco: Varane, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo, Carvajal, Arbeloa, Nacho: Kroos, James, Bale, Lucas Silva, Modric, Isco, Illarramendi, Ronaldo, Chicharito and Jesé.

Hunter’s Tip: Real Madrid to win by exactly 2 goals at 3/1

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Granada v Sevilla, Sunday 4pm

Glass half-full or half-empty for Unai Emery? After Thursday’s dramatic and draining comeback win over Zenit [2-1] he’ll be pleased not to have to travel too far to play Granada on Sunday. But he could probably have done without the extra ‘edge’ of an Andalusian derby against a team desperate to claw its way out of the relegation threat they face.

There’s also the extra buzz for what is an aggressive home support that Andalucia’s ‘big boys’, Sevilla, have only played at Los Cármenes three times in the last forty years. It’ll be like there’s a bounty on their heads. Regional pride will see to that.

Yet Granada have been surrender-monkeys recently – white flag at the Bernabéu when losing 9-1 a couple of weeks ago, a sea of white flags last weekend losing 3-0 at Almería

Your big evaluation here is: ‘when will Sevilla’s huge European exertions cost them a ‘hangover’ in La Liga?’

Not here you’d hope. This is a mighty season for Unai’s squad and it would be such a damp squib if it teetered now.

Bacca’s goal against Zenit made it seven scoring headers from Sevilla’s players in their last ten matches. It’d be logical if their second half impact won Denis Suárez and Mbia starting places on Sunday. Each of them, plus Aleix Vidal, might be worth backing.

Finally, Sevilla’s league season only has seven matches left. I don’t know if I can hold on that long without a lame Dick Emery joke. So long as they keep winning I won’t have to reach for …. ‘Ooh they are awful, but I like them…’

Hunter’s Tip: Sevilla -1 goal at 12/5

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Germany believe time has come

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The sleepy eyes did not hide the determination behind the stare when Mesut Ozil suggested Euro 2012 would be a failure were Germany to return empty-handed (Germany 13/8 joint favourites – Euro 2012 outright).

Die Mannschaft must first plot a way to beat semi-final opponents Italy for the first time in eight attempts at a major tournament if they are to be crowned European champions for a fourth time (Germany 2/5 – To Qualify).

Key to their chances will be Real Madrid playmaker Ozil, who has rightly been lauded for a number of eye-catching performances and is a generous 9/1 in the First and Last Goalscorer markets.

Victory at the Olympic Stadium in Kiev on Sunday will also be the culmination of a master-plan which was underpinned by the promotion of youth.

Not content with being the only nation with a 100 per cent record left in the tournament, Ozil said Germany would not be satisfied unless they realised their dream.

“We knew before the tournament that we had a strong team,” said the 23-year-old. “We believe in ourselves and the goal is to return to Germany with the title. That’s why we are here and I’m convinced we can do it.”

“No one can stop us now” is the view of newspaper Bild, while Germany captain Philipp Lahm reiterated the side’s mission statement.

He said: “So far we have rewarded ourselves for our hard work in the last few years and weeks. But we have always maintained that we want to play the final on Sunday. We want to win it and want to stay here until the very end.”

Germany no longer enjoy the space they were afforded at the 2010 World Cup, nor are they untouchable (Italy 7/4 – To Qualify).

A 5-3 defeat by Switzerland before the Poland and Ukraine showpiece highlighted flaws in defence, still evident given that Germany have conceded in their three games since keeping a clean sheet against Portugal in their Group B opener.

But with experience comes maturity and this is a Germany side packed with pace and power, complemented by the excellent midfield general Sami Khedira.

The Real Madrid enforcer provides the platform in a tried and trusted 4-2-3-1 formation for the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Ozil, et al to unlock a door.

“He has become a real leader; he is very good, very dynamic, very present,” said coach Joachim Loew. “It is good for the others that he’s there.”

Loew, who rested heavyweights Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller against Greece, has said Germany do not intend to sit back against the Azzurri and will look to dictate.

No doubt with Ozil at the forefront.

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Torquay must come out firing

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Cheltenham Town put one foot in the door of the League Two play-off final with a 2-0 win over Torquay in the first leg but now they have to finish the job at Plainmoor on Thursday night (Cheltenham 6/4, Torquay 9/1 – League Two Promotion 2011/12 Outright).

Goals in each half at Whaddon Road from Jermaine McGlashan and Ben Burgess ensured the Robins head down to the south west with a two-goal cushion, but they cannot simply turn up and dream of Wembley as Torquay will be up for this game – they have to be or any hopes they have of promotion will be quickly dashed.

Torquay (21/20 to win – 90 Minutes) have been struggling for form drastically over recent weeks and the first-leg loss means they come into this must-win game without a victory in six matches – indeed their last win was on April 6 and since then it’s been three wins and three losses.

That poor run ensured Martin Ling’s side missed out on automatic promotion on the final day of the regular season and confidence must have ebbed away even further after the first leg.

Goals are going to be the order of the day for the Gulls but they have to do it without their Player of the Year and leading scorer Rene Howe, as the 14-goal striker limped out of the first leg with a hamstring injury and he will miss the Plainmoor game – and it’s also likely he will miss out on Wembley if the Gulls do pull off the improbable.

Taiwo Atieno (6/1 – First Goalscorer) was the man that replaced him in the first leg and will lead the line at Plainmoor but, with only six league goals to his name all campaign, he doesn’t offer quite the potent threat that Howe would.

Club captain Lee Mansell and Danny Stevens are second and third in the top scorers’ list with 11 and eight goals respectively for the Gulls, so they might need to add to their tally to get Torquay through.

For Cheltenham boss Mark Yates it could be decision time. The 4-4-2 they played in the first leg worked perfectly, so he must choose whether to stick with that or the 4-5-1 that has been used bu the Robins on their travels through the regular season.

However, they do not boast an impressive away record and its seven losses from their last eight away from Whaddon Road – something which must spur on Torquay and their fans.

It is three wins in a row for Cheltenham (13/5 to win, draw 12/5 – 90 Minutes) and they boast a good play-off pedigree, with two previous end-of-season campaigns seeing promotion each and every time.

The boss could select on-loan Everton star Luke Garbutt after he missed the first match while, in what could be a real boost, Burgess is fine to play after needing stitches to a head wound at the weekend.

To some degree the first leg advantage, coupled with Torquay’s recent form, means a trip Wembley is Cheltenham’s to lose. The Robins should have enough to hold on a rampaging Gulls outfit, but if the home side manage to get an early goal it will be squeaky-bum time for those away fans and Plainmoor will be rocking.

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Celtic to come through Hibs test

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It’s been a difficult campaign for Neil Lennon and Celtic (8/15 in the match betting) so far, but things could be looking up and they should see off Hibernian (5/1) on Wednesday to book their place in the last four of the Scottish Communities League Cup.

Lennon’s Bhoys sit 10 points behind Old Firm rivals Rangers in the SPL with the 4-2 defeat at Ibrox in September the low point of the season so far. They do have a game in hand and will hope to claw back that deficit as the season goes on but they can forget about their league woes in midweek when they travel to Edinburgh for the Hibs clash.

A 2-0 win over Ross County in the last round has set up the Easter Road meeting and, while Lennon is expected to make changes for the game, the Northern Irishman insists he is taking the competition seriously and is focused on securing a semi-final spot.

Lennon’s side got a much-needed 2-1 win over Aberdeen on Sunday thanks to Charlie Mulgrew’s winner. He has been a rock at the back and is expected to play in Edinburgh alongside first-team regulars Beram Kayal and Joe Ledley, who all featured against County in September in the last round.

Kayal, in particular, was impressive in the win over the Dons after it was announced last week he had agreed a new, long-term contract at Celtic Park. He has yet to score this season but might be worth a a punt at 4/1 to score anytime in this one.

Looking at the goalscorer markets more closely, Gary Hooper is the 7/2 favourite to score first – as he looks to repeat the feat he managed against Ross County – but better value can be had elsewhere. Ivan Sproule (Hibs) looks tempting at 10/1 to open the scoring while Ledley at 9/1 is attractive for the visitors.

Hibernian will be without on-loan Richie Towell as he can’t face his parent club so that means manager Colin Calderwood must change the side which beat St Mirren 3-2 in the SPL on Saturday.

Mark Brown should start in place of Graham Stack, continuing as goalkeeper for the League Cup campaign, while Calum Booth could return.

Calderwood’s side will be revved up for the clash and will fancy their chances of at least taking the game to extra time but we expect Celtic to come through without too many problems – with the draw/Celtic – HT/FT at 10/3 well worth a bet.

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Xavi confident goals will come

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Midfielder Xavi is confident that his team-mates can find their shooting boots and score the goals that will propel Spain to their first ever World Cup title (Spain 21/20 to win World Cup final).

The Spaniards take on Holland in the showpiece final on Sunday evening in Johannesburg hoping to shake off the tag as the great under-achievers in world football and back-up their success at Euro 2008.

Spain came into the tournament as favourites but doubts were cast over their title credentials when they suffered a 1-0 reverse to Switzerland in their opening group fixture.

However, they bounced back to beat Honduras and Chile and top Group H to progress to the last 16 in South Africa.

Three 1-0 victories over Portugal, Paraguay and Germany followed to set up Sunday’s showdown with the Dutch as the Spanish put in solid, if unspectacular performances.

They do possess a plethora of talented attacking players but have had to rely on a resolute defence to see them through to the final as goals have been at a premium, and Xavi hopes that things will change against the Netherlands on Sunday.

“It is clear we have not scored many goals,” he said. “But we are feeling very comfortable with the way we are playing, and we are creating plenty of opportunities. Usually when you do that, you tend to get goals.

“But we are not converting the chances to our normal percentage. Let’s see if we can lift that because it will be particularly important.”

Spain coach Vicente del Bosque has a lot to think about ahead of the match, with a striking dilemma to solve.

Liverpool forward Fernando Torres, who scored the winning goal for Spain at Euro 2008, has not really ignited at the World Cup and was dropped for the semi-final win over Germany in favour of Pedro.

But his experience may see the former Atletico Madrid man back in the fray for the final with Pedro dropping back to the bench.

Whatever side the Spanish tactician decides to put out, Xavi believes that the 2010 squad will be worthy winners of the World Cup if they can edge what looks set to be a very tight affair.

“Football around the world is very even at the moment, very balanced. It’s the minor details that can be decisive,” he added. “If there is a change in the world order I hope it’s in favour of Spain. It’s time for Spain to take its place at the top and I think this generation of players fully deserves that.”

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There is more to come from Chile – Gonzalez

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Chile international Mark GonzalezFormer Liverpool winger Mark Gonzalez believes there is much more to come from his Chile (7/10 to qualify from Group H) outfit in the World Cup.

The Chileans impressed in their 1-0 win over Honduras as they started their Group H campaign in Nelspruit.

Jean Beausejour’s 34th minute goal was the first time Chile had hit the net in the World Cup finals since 1962, but Gonzalez says the team won’t be celebrating their success too long, with Monday’s clash against Switzerland in Port Elizabeth just around the corner.

The 25-year-old, now at CSKA Moscow, said: “It is always important to win the first three points and after that you can think you have one leg in the second round.

“We just want to celebrate, especially because we have made history – for so many years Chile did not win a game at the World Cup.

“We are very happy about that but looking forward to the second game now.

“We just have to think about Switzerland now. It will be a tough game and we will have to keep up our good work.

“I don’t know much about the Swiss but we know they are a very tough team.

“We will watch videos during the week, so we will know them better.

“We will try to win the next game so we can think about the next round.”

Chile are joint top of the group, along with Switzerland who shocked World Cup favourites Spain 1-0.

“We can’t relax yet,” Gonzalez added. “I think we can do much better.

“We won 1-0 but could have scored more goals. As a team we did things wrong and we will try to fix that up.”

Honduras’ first World Cup in 28 years started with a whimper, even before the game, as key striker David Suazo failed a fitness test on a thigh injury and playmaker Julio Cesar de Leon was ruled out of the tournament on the eve of the match after breaking down in training.

Honduras now have five days to lift themselves before their daunting match-up with Spain at Johannesburg’s Ellis Park.

Veteran captain Amado Guevara said: “Nobody likes to lose, less so in a World Cup, but there are things we can salvage.

“We knew Chile would play to attack but we lacked the patience to control the ball.

“We misplaced too many passes and we need to be more relaxed.”

For De Leon, the result compounded his sadness at being forced home early.

The Torino midfielder suffered a hamstring injury earlier in the week and, after being told to rest for at least a fortnight, gave up his place in the squad.

De Leon said: “I go with the bitterness of not giving the people what they deserve, not showing the world my football.

“There’s something dead inside me, I have no strength to mourn.

“But I must be positive, put on a brave face and smile, because some people are worse off than me.

“For years I struggled to achieve my dream of playing a World Cup, and it has gone – but every player is exposed and unfortunately it befell me.”

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