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Graham Hunter: Chelsea will win the title. Here’s why…

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Colours nailed firmly to the mast (blue, as it happens, on this occasion) I firmly fancy Chelsea to win the title this season.

I suspect Jose Mourinho strongly expects that to happen too. In fact, if he spoke totally frankly I guess he’d say: “If there are no disasters and if everyone does what I tell them to then we’ll win by a length.”

What he actually did say last weekend was:

“This season I don’t want to worry about who’s our biggest rivals. “I thought a lot about that and the key is that my club gave me exactly what I asked for [in the market].”

However, somewhere in the calculating, shrewd left hemisphere of his brain will be the acceptance that Roman Abramovich’s track record leaves no room for doubt: win the title and/or the Champions League or it’s the sack.

First-rate recruits for a title assault

Whatever Chelsea win, the internet already has a joke for it.

You don’t have to look hard to find the wits who have designed a Chelsea shirt with the Atlético Madrid crest on it.

Diego Costa, Filipe Luis and Thibaut Courtois repatriated. While these are first-rate recruits for an assault on both the Champions League and deposing Manchester City they could, look, to some, like the perfect ‘bait’ for Diego Simeone.

Might the Blues’ Russian owner be attracted by this feisty Argentinian title winner who resembles nothing more than a young, hungry Mourinho circa 2004?

The same prodigy whose team outplayed Chelsea at the Bridge last spring, preventing them reaching Abramovich’s hallowed ground of the Champions League final? And if Simeone is the ‘Plan B’ marked Навсякийслучай ['just in case' in Russian] then what better way to scheme for the future than stripping the backbone of his Spanish champions and installing them at Stamford Bridge?

Such are the risks of the high-octane world in which elite football managers like Mourinho exist. Kill or be killed.

Jose Mourinho wink

  • Can the blues get off to a banging start against Burnley? Latest odds >

Jose’s Inter mission

However, this time I think it’s reasonable to back Mourinho and suspect that he’s replicated his very best transfer market splurge – at Inter in summer 2009. The echoes are uncanny.

Beaten by Sampdoria in the Coppa Italia and Manchester United in the Champions league [in the semi final and the round of sixteen, the same stages Chelsea reached in the two competitions last season] Mourinho did two things.

The night of the United defeat he buttonholed his club owner, Massimo Moratti and demanded: “I want this, this and this player to come and want to let this, this and this veteran player to go…” Ring any bells from this summer?

Then, after the Coppa Italia humiliation, he told the media: “You are always badgering me to use certain players more [Mancini, Vieira, Crespo, Maxwell, Adriano].. this is what you get.”

For months Mourinho warned that the squad he’d inherited wasn’t sufficiently good. The following season’s treble, powered by his own signings, proved his case.

Forward-thinking fella

All last season he warned that Chelsea’s strikers weren’t converting a sufficient percentage of their chances. Finishing 30 goals behind both Liverpool and City proved him right.

Long before the end of season 2008/9, almost as soon as defeat to United was wrapped up, so were the purchases of Thiago Motta and Diego Milito from Genoa.

Mourinho believed the Argentinian striker would become the guy to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins.

Over the following months Milito scored the league-winning goal, the Coppa winning goal and both Champions League Final-winning goals.

Another Diego, Costa, has the potential to replicate all that and in my view it’s telling that Mourinho recently revealed he’s known for months [just like with Milito] that the 25-year-old striker was secured.

“All last season we wanted him and we decided to wait until now because we were very focussed on having Diego Costa.”

In summer 2009 Mourinho enquired about buying Daniel Van Buyten or Breno from Bayern and was shocked to be able to sign World Cup winner Lucio. He bit their hand off and it was a triumph.

Let’s talk about Cesc, baby

This time he admits he was very surprised that World Cup winning Cesc Fabregas would leave Barcelona, and now the Catalan will goals, assists and vast experience to Chelsea’s midfield.

“A fantastic midfielder who can modify how we play and addd a next dimension to our play” is Mourinho’s assessment.

Another part midfielder/part striker just like Wesley Sneijder became for Inter in Mourinho’s glorious summer of 2009 also plucked from Spain – Real Madrid in Sneijder’s case.

The Dutchman debuted in [without a training session] in a 4-0 win over Milan and scored crucial goals, including the one against Barcelona which put Inter in the Champions League final. Bet on Fabregas to produce the same impact.

In 2009 Mourinho had one season of learning under his belt, drove all the signings and sales … and Inter stormed to the treble by May 2010.

In 2014 all the signs are that he’s produced similar quality work.

And while the treble may be a big ask becoming champions of England should not be.

Opening Weekend MBS

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Graham Hunter: Here’s how Diego Simeone has transformed Atletico Madrid from whipping boys to sadists

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There was a time when this would have been a Fifty Shades Of Grey fixture.

Barça v Atlético, home or away, began to get a bit sado-masochistic.

The Catalans, generally, imposing the pain, the Madrileños accepting the humilation. Both kept turning up for more.

While Barça didn’t ALWAYS win, Atlético’s ten matches with the Blaugrana prior to Diego Simeone taking over saw them concede 36 times.

An appalling figure, more pertinent to primary school football.

Then, get this, when the now guru-figure of Simeone did take over the first three results were all defeats and cost another eight goals.

Thirteen games, three wins, 44 conceded.

Since Barcelona last won this fixture there have been five meetings between the sides and Los Colchoneros have conceded just twice in that time.

From allowing nearly 3.4 goals per game to 0.4 a match. That ain’t bad.

Filter out the games at the Calderón and it was much, much more embarrassing. Prior to this season, Atlético lost 26 goals in six visits to the Camp Nou, the very stadium in which the league leaders require either a draw or a win to give them their first Spanish championship for 18 years.

They were shipping in four a game. Crazy

Eto for Barca v Atletico

The thing which helps establish beyond any doubt who is the most important man at Atletico, is the lineup from Los Colchoneros’ last defeat at the Camp Nou. In December 2012 Atleti took the lead against Barcelona. The XI which needed to defend that 0-1 lead for 59 minutes was: Courtois, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Filipe Lluis: Turan, Mario Súarez, Gabi, Koke: Falcao, Diego Costa.

It’s perfectly feasible that ten of those men take the pitch in Simeone’s starting XI on Saturday evening … and, dammit, you’d say that the presence of goal-matchine Falcao probably makes that a stronger side than the coach has at this disposal this weekend.

Fifty nine minutes later, however, they’d been trounced 4-1.

The previous Barça v Atleti result was 5-0. On that night the visitors fielded Courtois, Godín, Miranda, Mario Súarez, Tiago, Gabi and Diego – on the bench were Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Adrián and Arda.

Again, eleven players who might all be under the microscope as Spain’s Liga has it’s most high profile, most tense finale in history.

Simeone has taken all the same guys, added very little in terms of new talent, and completely transformed them from masochists to sadists.

Obviously, all this partly indicates how much Barcelona’s intensity, cutting edge, speed of play and individual brilliance has declined over the last ten months.

Leo Messi used to find scoring goals against Atlético, even when they had a knockout keeper like Courtois, easier than shooting goldfish in a barrel.

He’s now six meetings, and counting, without a goal or an assist against Los Rojiblancos.

Lionel Messi training Argentina

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Above all, those previous stats tell most about Simeone.

Yes, he’s working the team harder week in week out in training. Those who aren’t inspired by him are intimidated by him.

He demands that everyone train with at least as much, if not more, passion and appetite than they actually play with.

In that sense, if not in the philosophy of how games should be play, he’s Pep Guardiola’s brother from another mother.

But to take a group of men who were habitually used to being thrashed within an inch of their life (none of whom were ex public schoolboys) and to turn them into a stubborn, feisty, streetwise Dirty Dozen, as used to thwarting Barcelona as they were once beaten before the first whistle, is one hell of an achievement.

He’s succeeded in that most difficult of tasks – changing the psychology of an entire group. Unifying levels of hunger and confidence. Improving them

The ‘Cup Final’ mentality…

Twice in the last two seasons Simeone, evidently a terrific svengali figure for whom players will give ‘extra’ when they think they are empty and ready to punch the clock, has brought a winning ‘cup final’ end of term performance out of his troops.

Let’s call the Uefa Europa league final of 2012 and the Copa del Rey final of 2013 the direct equivalent of this ‘Cup Final’ which awaits Atleti on Saturday in Barcelona.

In 2012 Atleti weren’t quite supposed to be meat and drink for Athletic Club but the Basques’ performances that season, particularly in hammering Manchester United, indicated that they should have been properly threatening in the all-Spanish final.

Instead, Simeone’s Atleti were better from start to finish and in every possible department. They were fitter, they enjoyed the occasion more, they worked harder, they were cleverer and more effective – they completely bossed it.

A year later, again in a last-game-of-the-season-showdown, Atleti showed an utterly different characteristic. They fought and clawed to stay level with Real Madrid in the Copa Final and were grateful to Courtois for quite heroically keeping them in the contest.

They spent most of the night on the ropes but, via Miranda, they were still gutsy enough to produce the KO punch the instant that the opportunity presented itself.

Diego Simeone wiki edit

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Simeone has taught them many things, he’s added some tactical finesse – but his greatest achievement has been psychological.

From a squad happy enough to coast along in third or fourth position and happy enough not to wave a guillotine blade at Spain’s ancien regime of Real Madrid and Barcelona, the Argentine has turned them into a bunch of bloodthirsty Robespierres.

Nerves at the finish line?

So, from my perspective, the big question to be asked before Saturday evening’s kick off is how much psychological damage has been done by Atleti losing five of the last six points at what should have been a ‘Vive La Revolution!’ moment of the season?

The loss at Levante was understandable enough. Having won at Chelsea and suffered the emotional tsunami of that experience the City of Valencia stadium was a horrible place to have to go and carve out a result.

But there was a general expectation that the champions-elect would swamp Málaga and there was a backwash of disappointment and deflation to discover, post that 1-1 draw last weekend that a single goal would have won them the title given Barcelona’s stalemate at Elche.

I watched the sagging shoulders, the dull, ‘dammit!!’ faces, and the suddenly weary bodies at the end of that Málaga draw, players, Simeone, technical staff and fans – and I thought that there’d been a major over-reaction

For a club so in charge of its emotions and psychology all season I thought that there was a glimpse of self doubt and a lack of ‘know-now’ in terms of that last push to get over the line.

From a bunch of guys who reckoned that a) the title would be won before going to the Camp Nou or b) that if they had to go and win they would and could, it felt as if Atleti had allowed self-doubt to corrode their previously robust confidence.

This should be treatable. A good, thorough working week on the Majadahonda training ground, individual tuition, perhaps a wee night out – there has been sufficient time since the Málaga draw to iron out and psychological kinks. You’d think, at least.

A further question is whether, improbable though it seems, Simeone has having a few flutters. Warrior, yes. Successful, yes. Invincible – no.

It’s vital that, should Atleti go one nil down (Barcelona haven’t taken the lead against these rivals for seven matches, since February 2012) they don’t suddenly get those ‘novice’ nerves which so often prevent ‘underdogs’ from fulfilling their vaunted potential.

Advantage Atletico?

Other than the body language last week, the omens are red and white. Not only do two of the three possible results win Atleti the title they’ve had significantly the better of things this season.

Atleti have the only win of the five games between the sides this term, Atleti have produced three different scorers and two different assist-givers against Barcelona since August.

Barcelona’s only scorer v Simeone’s mob this season, Neymar, won’t start and, realistically, shouldn’t even play at this stage of his injury rehab.

Atleti, at a time when Barcelona continue to look awfully ragged at the back without Piqué, Puyol or Valdés, keep on producing some lovely set plays – and scoring from them. Simeone’s guys at the masters of transferring hard work and planning from the training ground to the battlefield.

Then there’s the final point in terms of psychology. You’d have to forgive the boys in red and white IF they, consciously or otherwise, felt that their final against Real Madrid a week on Saturday is more important.

You’d forgive them if they decided to play speculatively (for a draw) at the Camp Nou and then, having reserved something, go ‘all-out’ in Lisbon against Real Madrid.

You wold forgive them, but would Barça? Tata Martino’s side has been patchy and unreliable due to oscillating form this season – but they’ve shown, to the cost of Madrid, Man City, Ajax, Milan and Villarreal, that when they really want to .. they can.

Mateu Lahoz, easily Spain’s best and most diligent ref, will be in charge. He MAY have a style which allows a Simeone-esque side more liberty with physical play but that’s because he likes the game to flow, not because he promotes brutality.

Barcelona used to be the perfect side to profit from Lahoz – quicker and brighter in how they reacted when an incident looked like a foul but the ref waved play-on.

He gives a premium to those who are quick, talented, who concentrate and love the ‘advantage’ rule.

Even though they’ve been too sluggish in every respect, recently, to draw benefit from his style, Barcelona have nonetheless never lost with Lahoz in charge

One more thought about Barça. They have the psychological impact of all these ‘farewells’ at the Camp Nou. From Tito’s unfair, untimely death through to Victor Valdés slinking away after a private goodbye to this team mates and Carles Puyol retreating with all guns blazing.

Full military honours there.

Valdes and Puyol with European Cup

Do intangibles exist? Can Barcelona, slightly patched together where players’ form, fitness and energy levels are concerned, draw some sort of invincible emotional energy from the facts that Puyol and Valdés are going and Tito has gone forever?

More questions than answers. But a clear cut promise. IF Simeone has done his restorative psychology well, (as well as he’s managed with his squad all season) then Atleti will get their draw and their title.

If he hasn’t, then I suspect that this might prove to be a more vulnerable Atlético than Barcelona have faced in the previous handful of matches this season.

Game on.

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Graham Hunter: Will Ronaldo return to Manchester United? Here’s what you need to know…

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Spanish football expert Graham Hunter reveals the role Chevrolet and Nike could play in Ronaldo’s transfer to Manchester United from Real Madrid, but suggests it still might not be enough, due to the influence of the great Zinedine Zidane…

Here is a stone cold fact. There is a much-better-than-evens chance that Cristiano Ronaldo will return to play for Manchester United.

In fact, right now, that idea is very much part of the plans of both the Old Trafford legend and his immensely powerful agent Jorge Mendes.

However, that’s only the ‘whether’. The ‘how’ and the ‘when’ very much remain subject to whim, vast sums of money, the player’s will and an absolutely fascinating battle – Sir Alex Ferguson v Zinedine Zidane.

Fergie, when he was young, had a much more elegant and cultured left foot than people now recall. It was WELL within his talents to exceed 1000 keepie uppies before the ball hit the ground.

But, Zizou he was not.

Ronaldo’s goal stats for Man United and Real Madrid

Ronaldo statsbomb

Why Ronaldo and Ferguson are bound forever

However Ferguson is patently the Zidane of modern football management. He also inspires trust, affection and respect from Ronaldo. As disparate are the two men’s attitudes as to how life is to be led, what constitutes ‘fashionable’ and whether conspicuous consumption is or isn’t the eighth deadly sin, the Portuguese and the Scot are unified by one thing above all else: an ability to dedicate themselves ruthlessly to winning.

Many talk about it, very few are capable of it.

Like MENSA members (or Masons), such people instantly recognize each other and either bond forever or become implacable enemies.

Ronaldo and Ferguson are bound forever.

United know, have known for a long, long time, that life at Real Madrid is NOT the dream ticket Ronaldo imagined it would be.

While they benefitted from an £80m transfer fee, the real reason Ferguson and United allowed Ronaldo to leave for the Spanish capital is directly equated to the reason Ferguson let Carlos Queiroz go there too.

Some, particularly in Iberia, don’t simply view, but feel in their soul, that Real Madrid is the most toweringly important club in the history of football.

His problems at Real Madrid

Yes, yes, okay. Ronaldo was going to earn shedloads of money for going there, as was his agent. But the trigger, the reason for yearning to go was not cash.

Ronaldo desperately wanted to play for Madrid, add his name alongside (even above) those of Gento, Di Stefano, Raúl, Figo and Zidane.

Ferguson understood.

Unless you get that concept, then you won’t get what’s going on in his mind right now.

While in Spain Ronaldo has seen his Ballon D’Or status evaporated by Messi and, professionally, he’s endured more frustration than elation.

His personal form doesn’t need discussing. He’s scored more than a goal per game, very nearly as many away as at home, and he’s certainly a more complete team player now, aged 28, than when he left Old Trafford.

But Real Madrid has been a let down. He has three medals from his four seasons, but only one that would rank of supreme importance to him (despite his brilliant winning header in the Copa Del Rey final of 2010), which is the exceptional Liga victory of 2011/12.

Zinedine Zidane

INFLUENCE: Ferguson, in his new role, is up against Real Madrid legend Zinedine Zidane

Internal politics rage in the Perez fiefdom

Was United under Sir Alex a fiefdom? Yes, in a wholly positive sense, it probably was. There Ronaldo felt protected, developed, trusted, backed in public with coruscating rhetoric – valued. United felt like a high performance organisation.

Madrid hasn’t. It’s currently Florentino Pérez’s fiefdom and, now, will be for a further four years given the uncontested Presidential elections earlier this summer.

But it’s a place where internal politics rage, where Jose Mourinho’s putsch to gain precisely the overall power which Sir Alex earned over the years at Old Trafford didn’t end up benefitting Ronaldo – it’s a high performance organisation, which is under performing.

It’s also a mirage that because Mourinho and Ronaldo share a nationality and an agent that all was sweetness and light between them. It wasn’t.

Ronaldo, coincidentally, is constructed the same way as Ferguson. Dominate opponents, thrash opponents when you can, play on the front foot all the time, add goals when the chance is there, entertain – adhere to the ruthless need to win, but do it via attacking football.

If you asked Ronaldo what Mourinho would have done on the touchline of the Camp Nou in 1999 when Teddy Sheringham equalised in the Champions League final against Bayern Munich and assistant Steve McClaren was urging closing the 90 minutes out so that extra time was a guarantee, he’d know the answer alright. And he’d disagree.

Mourinho got it wrong at Real

The sad thing for Madrid fans is that Ronaldo, while setting new standards of professionalism, dedication, excellence and scoring, has made it clear where he diverges from the party line at Madrid.

It was Ronaldo waving his team forward, against team orders, when they went on to lose 0-2 at home to Barca in the 2010 Champions League semi final.

His idea was right, it was the Madridista idea – Mourinho proved to have got it wrong.

When he admitted he was ‘sad’ last Autumn he underlined with complete sincerity, that he wasn’t asking for more money, for a better contract.

It was true.

He was making it clear that a) he didn’t feel that there was the right unity and desire at the club b) that Real Madrid was repeatedly guilty of not ‘protecting’ him in public, (even the President not accompanying him to institutional events) and c) he yearned for more spectacular football.

Ronaldo v Barcelona calm down

The options for Ronaldo now

Ronaldo has two more years on his Madrid contract.

Now, right now, is the red ‘danger’ zone for the club if they don’t renew him. IF they cannot convince him to renew before the end of the season then…

  • a) The summer will be eaten up by the World Cup and then holidays and he’ll return for duty just a few months from being able to sign for anyone he pleased on January 1 2015. For free.
  • b) They will be faced with the thorny choice of selling him cut price in late summer 2014 or taking the ‘Hail Mary’ approach of letting him enter his last year of contract in the hope of persuading him to stay – but with the risk of needing to sell.

Their main weapons, now, are not only new coach Carlo Ancelotti (whose words “we need to play spectacularly, this is Real Madrid” won’t have displeased Ronaldo) and Zidane.

Zizou is assistant coach to Ancelotti but he’s also someone who is now guiding the President, talking to the players, influencing who signs for them (Varane, Isco) and attempting to return grandeur to the nine time European Champions.

Zidane can, in theory, begin to sculpt the kind of Real Madrid Ronaldo always wanted.

However at United, Sir Alex Ferguson can still, from his new role, do the same for Ronaldo.

The fact that he is still involved, not fully retired, is a bonus to the Reds as far as Ronaldo is concerned.

Their kit sponsors, Nike, want Ronaldo back and are willing to financially influence that.

Their shirt sponsors, Chevrolet, view Ronaldo as not only a huge boost to the football operation but a massive marketing magnet all over the planet – but most particularly in the US.

Florentino would be lynched for selling CR7

If Real Madrid can be convinced to sell before the end of this market, I’ll be amazed. The fans now adore him, he’s the club’s best player by a zillion miles and he’s someone around whom a charge for la Decima, the tenth European Cup, can be mounted.

Florentino would be lynched for selling. But can the deal be constructed and put in place for next summer: Yes.

Would United be the leading candidate to sign him if he left for free in 2015: Yes.

Hundreds of millions of pounds are involved in this, share prices are involved in this, Presidential ego is involved. Predict with a voice of total certainty  how it will play out at your own risk.

But there is a race to convince Ronaldo about how he spends most of the next five years of his playing life. And United are right in it.

  • Betting: Can Manchester United win the Premier League title race without Ronaldo?

Graham Hunter is the author of the award-winning book, Barca: The Making of the Greatest Team in the World. He is a regular contributor to the Paddy Power Blog on football and an all-round good guy. Follow him on Twitter here

Dive into Hunter’s archives on the Paddy Power Blog here


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Graham Hunter exclusive: Here’s why Gotze’s absence doesn’t mean Dortmund are done for

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European football expert Graham Hunter has three bets out of left field for the neutral in the all-German Champions League Final on Saturday night at Wembley.

If you’d blindfolded David, tied one arm behind his back and replaced the stone in his sling with cotton wool you’d STILL have a bigger crowd of backers on him to win his one-on-one with Goliath than those favouring  Borussia Dortmund on Saturday night.

Even though we saw Manchester United beat Bayern Munich without Paul Scholes and Roy Keane in 1999, Barcelona beat United in 2009 without Eric Abidal, Rafa Marquez and Dani Alves,  Chelsea beat Bayern without John Terry, Branislav  Ivanovic, Ramires and Raul Meireles – the absence of Mario Gotze seems to have been taken as the end of Dortmund’s hopes.

Lukasz Piszczek needs a hip operation post final because he’s in persistent pain. And if Mats Hummels starts then the spotlight will be trained right on him because of the ankle problem which he suffered in defeat against Hoffenheim last weekend.

SOCCER: One-nation European finals

The theory is that Gotze is so outstanding, such an important gateway for Dortmund’s high energy, vertical playing philosophy – that his absence is disastrous.

Bayern are football’s Terminators.

In summary they’ve scored a million goals this season, teams are petrified to score against them in case they get a knuckle sandwich, everyone’s in perfect form, each of their players is quicker, taller, stronger than their rivals. As they’d say in Goodfellas: ‘Forget about it’.

And all joking aside, Jupp Heynckes’ side are tremendous to watch and a real swine (or Schweini) to play against.

Having dominated Dortmund domestically this season, Supercup, German Cup, Bundesliga, it really would be a massive setback for Bayern not to complete the set with the Champions League trophy which their butter-fingers let slip 12 months ago against Chelsea.

And if you want to put your sterling, your Euros or even the odd Deutschmark from down the back of the sofa on Bayern the evidence keeps on mounting to say you’re spot on.

Dortmund’s key player, Robert Lewandowski, is off to Bayern once the final is over so who knows how he’ll handle the pressure of leading the line against his new employers?

Ripped out fingernails

Bayern romped to Wembley against Juventus and Barcelona on an 11-0 aggregate scoreline while Dortmund ripped out all their fingernails while clinging on for wins against Malaga and Real Madrid.

An open and shut case – right?

Possibly so.  However it’s a fact that in the last 10 matches between the sides, in all competitions, Dortmund have won five and drawn two – not a bad record.

Equally, it’s just a year since Jurgen Klopp’s side won the German Cup final 5-2 against a Bayern XI which, barring the injuries to Holger Badstuber and Toni Kroos, could feasibly start on Saturday night.

Whether or not you fancy Bayern to ultimately do the logical thing and win there may be one or two factors worth taking into account.

  • In seven of those last 10 matches between the sides Dortmund have scored the first goal.
  • Of the three previous European Cup finals between teams from the same country familiarity hasn’t bred contempt – but penalty shoot-outs instead

AC Milan beat Juve on spot-kicks in 2003, Manchester United did the same to Chelsea in 2008 and if you consider that of the four matches between Bayern and Dortmund this season there have been two draws and two single-goal wins for the Bundesliga champions then perhaps extra time and penalties aren’t wildly fanciful.

Then there is the theme which the bashful, inarticulate, wallflower Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp himself introduced.

Champions League

GERMAN MENACE: Lewandowski, Klopp, Muller and Bond baddie Blofeld

Ahead of the final he said:

Bayern want the Bundesliga to be a one- team league. It’s like James Bond but they aren’t Bond, they are the other guy. They want to dominate Europe and Germany for a decade.

Klopp also admits that when he heard that Gotze had been bought out of his contract by Bayern Munich it devastated him for a night – enough to make him miss his friend starring in a movie Premier and the red carpet, Rolls Royce evening which was in store for Herr and Frau Klopp by association.

In one fell swoop with his Bond-villain quotes he managed to make this a grudge match and to invoke ‘underdog’ sympathy for his side.

This isn’t a tie which generally produces a flood of red cards, although Rafinha was sent off during the recent Bundesliga draw, and there have only been two red cards in European Cup finals – Arsenal ‘keeper Jens Lehmann and Didier Drogba in 2006 and 2008 respectively.

Good luck to Italian ref Nicola Rizzoli who has issued only four red cards in 39 Uefa club matches. Perhaps, just perhaps, he’ll augment that total.

Now, given that it’s the last vital club game of my working season I’m going to indulge on that sixth-sense ‘instinct’ call. Only two players, Samel Eto’o and Raul Gonzalez, have scored in two Champions League finals and Thomas Muller, is a punt of mine to score in two consecutively.

It’s hard to envisage Dortmund having a chance unless Lewandowski provides them with a goal but Nuri Sahin is a massive favourite of Klopp’s and it’s feasible that a weight of responsibility will fall on his shoulders now that Gotze is out. A surprise goal or man of the match?

It could easily be hostile, it’ll be passionate, noisy and intense. Get your bets on, get the beers in sit back and enjoy a cracker.

Graham’s best bets for the Champions League final:

  • Muller time:  Thomas to score for Bayern in consecutive finals
  • Early bath: What are the odds on a red card being shown?
  • Too close to call: See our extra-time and penalties market
  • Sahin surprise: What price the man of the match award

MBS


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Premier League is not a patch on Spanish football. Here’s why…

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In a controversial column, Graham Hunter tells the Paddy Power Blog why Spanish football and La Liga rules in style over the Premier League

“Mickey Mouse league, Spain. Only two teams in it.”

That was the comment on Paddy Power’s Facebook page on Monday morning. The contributor didn’t sign himself as Mr J Cyclops of Tunbridge Wells — but he might as well have done.

Perhaps it’s because it came at a time when the six male nominees who will take the stage during January’s Ballon D’Or ceremony are all either Spanish or work in Spain that the feedback comment caused apoplexy in the Paddy Power office.

Hats off to Andrés Iniesta, Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Vicente Del Bosque, Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho. I’d call that dominance.

Or maybe it seemed so out of place when Spain has eclipsed every other football nation by winning back-to-back continental titles with the World Cup squeezed nicely in between?

Oh, and should I mention early that since 2000 Spain has produced seven Champions League finalists and five winners?

You want Uefa Cup and Europa League, do you?

Ok, of the last 10 Uefa finals, seven of the 20 finalists have been from Spain, again five winners.

La Rojita are reigning Uefa European U21 Champions, have produced seven finalists in the last 11 U19 tournaments, including six wins, and just to ice the cake, five finalists of the last 10 U17 Championships… with two winners.

West Indies, Micheal Schumacher, David Rudisha

THE GREATS: Count Spain alongside the West Indies, Schumacher, and Kenyans like David Rudisha

All in all it’s a blanket dominance to put West Indies cricket in the 1970s and 80s, Michael Schumacher, Tiger Woods, Kenyan distance athletes and the All Blacks (forever!) to shame.

Impressive, organised and well marketed though the English Premier League may be, it isn’t a patch on Spanish football. Not even within touching distance.

But there are some, seduced by the packaging who endlessly need to put Spanish football down so that they can feel better (more smug or less worried, I wonder?) about English football.

The Premier League is better television

Right here and now let me make clear my acceptance that much of this ‘good, better, best’ argument in sport needs boxing’s ‘pound for pound’ unit of measurement applied. Even then it’s often subjective.

For example even though those facts I’ve just listed pummel all other arguments into the ground, overall, I’m full of respect for football in England.

Compared to La Liga it is televised better, it’s more modern, the scheduling is better, the stadia are better, racism is something to be sought out and driven out rather than complacently accepted, and there will always be some who enjoy vaudeville, melodrama and ‘oh-no-he’s-not-oh-yes-he-is!!’ more than opera, ballet, arthouse cinema and Classic FM.

What’s more, one of the reasons Spanish football is so comprehensively better than British football right now is fundamentally thanks to… British football.

Cazorla, Reina and Spain

REIGN IN SPAIN: Cazorla and Reina have been successful imports as Spain taste international glory

Over the last 10 years there has been a wholesale movement of Spanish players to Scotland and England.

Phase A was when those countries went fishing, tentatively, for bargain players (those right at the end of their career or Segunda Division talents who weren’t being paid their wages and thus were ripe for plucking) or uncut gems like Mikel Arteta, Cesc Fabregas and Gerard Piqué.

Phase B has been the realisation that the majority of Spanish footballers will have a technical and tactical quotient far above their UK equivalents, will probably be cheap (Michu anyone?) and on lower wages.

But back to Phase A.

Initially, those first Spanish exports found our lifestyle, our playing style and, let’s face it, our cuisine, hard to adapt to.

Some of their key conclusions were that in the UK the referee will blow for far fewer fouls, that we have a stronger sense of ‘fair play’and even your own team-mates will tell you to ‘get up off your arse’if you are rolling around in mock agony or diving for penalties.

But as the tough kids shone, Xabi Alonso, Cesc Fabregas, Roberto Martinez, Alvaro Arbeloa, Rafa Benitez, Pepe Reina, Fernando Torres at Liverpool they all brought home the message that in England you play hard, play fair and give absolutely everything.

That fan culture demands you run and try till your sweat glands are empty whether the team is winning, drawing or losing 5-0.

They, in a sense, were missionaries and what they preached when back amongst team-mates, national team coaching staff and the media was that UK football possessed something beautiful — toughness and a constant hunger to be mentally and physically strong enough to be victorious.

Pep Guardiola

This was new to Spain and once the message was accepted, assimilated and applied here we began to see a fearful hybrid — modern La Liga players who were technically brilliant, could pass a camel through the eye of a needle, produced sleight-of-boot, were tactically smart and, now, were mentally and physically tough too.

So, Spain (club and country) is on a trophy winning spree of which England (and everyone else) can only dream.

Two-team league? Don’t make me laugh…

Spain, for a generation, has had a philosophy that all its age-level teams will play a brand of football and use formations which are tied to how the senior team is playing.

It’s a production line and the factory is called Las Rozas Ciudad del Fútbol. The Spanish federation has had its St George’s Park for just under a decade — quite an advantage.

Spain has vastly more professionally accredited coaches than England, and produces wave after wave of technically sublime players who now know that you have to be as ferociously tough as Piqué or Alonso and who tend not to get into tabloid scrapes over drink, drugs, girlfriends, air rifles or £20 notes.

But, as Mr Cyclops in Tunbridge Wells is presumably still fuming right now: “Spain is a two-team league!”

That’s the insult thrown in an attempt to belittle La Liga.

First of all it’s debatable how different it is from England.

Manchester City only began to remember what the title was, let alone became potential winners, once it was nicely plumped up with petrodollars. Nothing wrong with that. Manchester City are an exciting new force — especially now that they’ve hired Spaniards as Chief Executive, Director of Football and big boss on the pitch (David Silva).

But remove them from the equation and compare Spain’s title winners with England’s title winners since 2000. La Liga boasts Deportivo La Coruña, Valencia (twice) plus Real Madrid and Barcelona.

England has just three: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Chelsea, by the way, are owned by someone with a personal worth meaning that the debts run up by Barcelona and Real Madrid would just be loose change to him. And if Arsenal win a trophy in May it’ll be their first in eight years.

More to La Liga than El Clasico clubs

No club in Spain has Chelsea or Manchester City’s wealth. Arsenal are a club in search of new impetus — pound for pound the English league has been utterly dominated by one outfit, Manchester United, since 1996.

What’s more, those who mock La Liga because “any team can beat any other” in England but “Madrid and Barcelona win easy” in Spain are ignoring large flotillas of facts.

What about when Sporting Gijon took Jose Mourinho’s nine-year unbeaten home record by winning at the Bernabéu? Or when Numancia, a club small enough to fit in your pocket, beat Pep Guardiola’s Barça at the beginning of their treble-winning season?

In recent years Getafe, Levante, Real Zaragoza, Osasuna, Sporting, Espanyol, Villarreal, Hercules and Real Betis have all taken scalps against Real Madrid and Barça.

La Liga is competitive. It’s just that both of the Clasico clubs are very, very good.

During my 10 years in Spain, 12 different teams have qualified for the Champions League slots in La Liga’s top four positions – what’s the equivalent record in England?

And while these so-called ‘no mark’ also-ran Spanish clubs might not be capable of winning the title they have also proved hellishly difficult for the rest of Europe to defeat.

Think of Sevilla winning back-to-back Uefa Cups, and Atletico Madrid winning two out of three Europa Leagues, each time defeating the reigning Champions League holder — Inter and Chelsea in the subsequent Uefa Supercup Final, Espanyol and Athletic Club in the Uefa final, Getafe in the semi final, Villarreal eliminating Manchester United from their Champions League group, and so on and so on.

I fully understand fans of United, Stoke, West Ham, Everton — name the club you want — who care passionately about local rivalries and about scraping together the money for a season ticket and a couple of away trips. Perhaps continental football feels less important, perhaps they simply don’t like the less robust, more scientific style.

Fair play. I have no bone to pick with that.

But I’ve lost count of the top, top professionals in both coaching and playing in the UK who, when we meet, want to know more about the science behind Spanish footballers and coaches being that good.

SOCCER: FIFA Ballon dÕOr finalists

The shining English talents in management and those who still play top level, take in or tape Spanish football whenever they can.

They revere Iniesta, Xavi, Messi, Isco, Alonso, Ramos, Soldado, Llorente, Thiago, Ronaldo, Rossi, Falcao and Villa, home-bred brilliance and the cream of world soccer, having already imported Silva, Mata, Torres, Reina, Cazorla, Michu, Pablo, Romeu, José Enrique, Kun Aguero, Touré, Azpilicueta, Suso, Rodolfo Borrell, Rafa Benitez, Roberto Martinez, Chico, Cuellar, Arteta and many more.

Just one more thought — who’s THE most sought-after coach in world football right now.

Clue: he lives in Manhattan but he’s not American.

What really matters in football…

Okay, by now you’ve twigged that I was charged with producing a provocative, or at least thought-provoking column.

What’s more, only a fool or a PR man would argue that there isn’t a great deal which, if transplanted from England, wouldn’t automatically improve the infrastructure, health, wealth and marketabillity of La Liga.

Messi and RVP

TWO GOOD: Messi and RVP represent the best of both leagues

But what romantics like you and I really care about is the thrill of a player beating his opponent one on one, the passing movement which zips the ball from boot to boot as if it were heat-seeking and laser controlled.

The genius of invention, the routine of the ball being a footballer’s friend.

No matter what the men in grey suits argue at the Emirates Stadium right now, it’s not about being there or thereabouts all the time — it’s about vein-bulging, adrenalin-pulsing excitement, gasps, roars, fun, skill… and trophies.

Winning regularly, and winning with style.

Ladies and Gentleman, in the red corner and STILL the champion of the world… Spanish football.

  • Betting: La Liga
  • More from Graham Hunter

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.


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King Pep is back — here’s what it means for Chelsea, Bayern, Barca, Mourinho, you and me

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Graham Hunter reveals the ripple effects caused by Pep Guardiola’s move to Bayern Munich

I don’t know of anyone who can prove Sir Isaac Newton was a Bayern Munich fan but I’m nearly sure the 18th century physicist had something like Pep Guardiola’s sudden decision to sign for the Bavarians in mind when he came up with this third law of motion; that for each and every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction.

Joy, bratwurst sandwiches, steins of strong lager and plans to dominate the Champions League forever in most of Bavaria.

Bitter tears, recriminations, thousand-yard stares and loud ‘why oh, oh, whys’ in Russian and Arabic haunting the Premier League.

That sort of thing.

So if Pep Guardiola (41) is the pebble which breaks the water’s surface and sends ripples spreading out in all directions — who all gets their feet wet?

Rafa Benitez

BOO, HISS: Abramovich has been left with Rafa Benitez at Chelsea, but not for long

#1. What happens now at Chelesa with Rafa Benitez and will Abramovich leave?

You have to wonder whether comrade Abramovich bent a few solid gold teaspoons in impotent rage yesterday, pushed away the side plate of beluga caviar and kicked the cat?

The Russian’s desire to import Barça-style football to Stamford Bridge is well established and having failed to persuade Guardiola last May the door was left firmly open for the Catalan to step in, and earn wealth beyond any normal man’s dreams, from this summer onwards.

Rafa Benitez’s interim appointment until the end of this season spoke volumes about the Chelsea owner’s confidence that by buying diminutive, technically gifted players like Oscar, Hazard, Mata and, I hear, Isco in the next transfer market he could sway Guardiola.

Txiki Begiristain, now in charge of Manchester City’s football direction but once Guardiola’s boss at Barça also said “no” to Abramovich. That’s not a good indication of how much these smart, successful football philosophers trust Chelsea’s strategy and consistency under Abramovich’s rule.

Nor did Benitez pick a particularly good night for his team to draw 2-2 with relegation strugglers Southampton. Booed off the pitch after a performance which means the European Champions have now won just one of their seven home Premier League matches under the Spaniard can only have served to implant another thorn in Abramovich’s side.

If either the Russian wants shot of Benitez by the end of the season or if the former Real Madrid youth team coach gets the call to return to the Bernabéu then what is the Chelsea owner left with?

Carlo Ancelotti’s title win wasn’t sufficient to appease him, Roberto Di Matteo’s remarkable Champions League odyssey had a five month feel-good factor and now Guardiola has chosen a walk near the Black Forest ahead of walking down the King’s Road. (With apologies to all fans of Horst Jankowski and the mod band Squire)

Where does Abramovich turn? Is it feasible that with the fans booing the club for its treatment of Frank Lampard, for the sacking of Di Matteo, for the run of sterile home performances and now with the rejection of Guardiola stinging worse than a paper-cut the Russian billionaire might, just, start to feel his comittment to the club ebbing away?

Sergio Busquets

CONTRACT TIME: Sergio Busquets could fancy a move north. And bring his pepper with him

#2. Who will be the first Barcelona player to move to Bayern?

Obviously, there were always going to be repercussions at Guardiola’s Alma Mater.

The first came for poor old Tito Vilanova on Wednesday night, after Barça’s 2-2 draw against 10-man Málaga, when his press conference was pretty much hijacked by Spanish, Catalan, Italian and German journalists. All wanted to ask him about his friend and former boss signing for the Bavarians more than about the surprise home draw in the Copa del Rey quarter final.

There wasn’t any doubting Vilanova’s sincerity when, in order, he stated that a) he hadn’t known anything about it despite having met Guardiola in New York last week b) he was utterly delighted that a force for good in football was returning to the top level of the European game and c) that Bayern appeared a smart choice for Pep given that it was one of the all-time great football clubs.

But it didn’t take long for him to look a little piqued that the tantalising cup quarter final was being relegated to second place … or that Guardiola’s every move at Bayern looms as being a subject for every fourth or fifth question of each damn press conference next season.

More seriously, of course, there is the question about whether any key men at the Camp Nou — technical staff or stellar playing talents — might migrate and fly north in the summer?

Victor Valdés is in the throes of contract re-negotiations as is Sergio Busquets. The Barça Academy is full of glowing young tyro-talents — prime for plucking by Pep.

Normally Barça treat all that as an occupational hazard of forming exceptional young players and haggle for big fees which are then pumped back into youth development.

But it was only 48 hours ago that FCB President Sandro Rosell alleged Manchester City had been attempting to wave petrodollars in the direction of some Barça talent. Whether his attempt to boom out a ‘hands-off’ message was convincing remains to be seen.

If I were either the agent of Valdés, Busquets or anyone in line for an imminent contract renewal I’d be dancing a feverish jig of joy right now to the tune of ‘We’re in the money, we’re in the money…”

Jose Mourinho

SPECIAL ONE: Difficult times for Jose Mourinho at Real and Bayern are a huge foe

#3. Will Jose move to Germany just to get piss Pep off?

Now the Special One has always had a devilish sense of humour and, equally, he’s always boasted about being the only man capable of picking off major trophies in Portugal, England, Italy and Spain. So perhaps next season he’ll head-hunt Bochum or SpVgg Greuther Fürth, demand the manager’s job and storm into the Bundesliga title fight just to get under Pep’s skin again. Don’t pretend you weren’t already thinking about him doing something like that.

As for the ripples in the pond reaching President Pérez’s toes, it might not be a bad thing. Bayern are already Madrid’s most redoutable European foe.

And not just because of Los Blancos’ elimination at the hands of FCB in the Champions League semi final last April. Of Madrid’s twenty Champions’ Cup meetings with Bayern they’ve only won seven and the goals scored are 33-26 in the Bavarian’s favour.

So for them to add the arch anti-Madridista in Guardiola, with the guarantee that Bayern’s attention to detail and ruthlessness when it comes to winning trophies will increase, it must seem a trifle ominous to the President of the Spanish champions.

Moreover Bayern, like Barça, have a guiding football and business philosophy which is starkly different to Madrid’s and the Bundesliga leaders also put enormous faith in their own youth development policies. Time for Florentino to look and learn?

And finally…

Javi Martinez

THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER: Pep can get the best out of Javi Martinez

#4. The situation for the Bayern squad, Javi Martinez and Spain

It’s simple to explain why Bayern is a natural fit for Guardiola. Ambitious, well-run, attentive to detail, a club with a Bavarian identity rather than German just as Barça feels itself firstly as a Catalan institution rather than a Spanish outfit. It’s also pretty clear what Guardiola brings to the party.

Basically this is all, ‘winning machine gets Formula One petrol in its engine — GO! GO! GO!’ as Murray Walker used to screech.

But there will be some stalled engines. Guardiola is maniacal about detail, quite right too. His demands are high and they are incessant. Without question he will encounter one or two at Bayern who either think, or worse still say: “Es tut mir leid, aber das ist nicht, wie wir die Dinge hier tun.”

Which, roughly, means: “That’s all very well pal but that’s not the way we do things around here you know.”

A deadline missed, a little bit of larking around during training, a stretching exercise only 95% completed, a late night ahead of a match… too many appearances in sponsors’ adverts.

If anyone at Bayern Munich’s Säbener Straße training centre doubts what kind of tightening of the leash is coming they need only phone Samuel Eto’o, Zlatan Ibrahimovic or Yaya Touré.

As for Javi Martínez, I suspect good times lie ahead. His €40m price tag has occasionally chafed this season. Hands up anyone who is totally shocked?

Okay, please leave the classroom.

But he now fulfills the right side of the two-man midfield, with Bastian Schweinsteiger, in retiring manager Jupp Heynckes’ regular 4-2-3-1 formation.

However, there could be no better ex-midfielder to become maestro to the talented, athletic Basque who can look closely at Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets now and believe: “I’m capable of making them fight much harder for their places in the world champions’ starting XI.”

I’m certain their shared language, ability, outlook and professionalism will unite Guardiola and Martínez, to the great benefit of the latter.

Then, dear reader, there is you and I…

Pep Guardiola

RETURN OF THE KING: Whatever way you look at it, Pep Guardiola’s comeback is good for football

Neutral or partisan, German, Spanish, Catalan, Bavarian, Scottish, English, Irish or Welsh we should all be thrilled to the core that the beautiful game has one of his most attractive participants back again.

Viel Glück Herr Guardiola.

  • Graham Hunter on La Liga for the Paddy Power Blog
  • Betting: Bundesliga
  • Betting: La Liga

Graham Hunter is a Barcelona-based, British soccer writer whose passionate insight on La Liga can regularly be seen and heard on TV and radio. He also writes for the Paddy Power Blog on Spanish football. Follow Graham on twitter here.


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Ronaldo and Real Madrid are pound for pound better than Manchester United. Here’s why…

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The Champions League is back and Real Madrid take on Manchester United at the Bernabeu on Wednesday. Graham Hunter writes for the Paddy Power Blog on why United are going to find it hard to cope with former hero Cristiano Ronaldo

When Steve McManaman produced the name of Manchester United to face Real Madrid during the Champions League knockout round draw back in December there must have been many United fans who thought the Liverpool legend had done them the first favour of his career.

Not only were Spain’s champions languishing in third place in La Liga they immediately went out and lost 3-2 at Málaga to drop 16 points behind league leaders Barcelona.

The mighty Santiago Bernabéu stadium, which Sir Alex Ferguson’s team visit on Wednesday night for the third time under the Scot’s management, had been brewing its unhappiness

Against Espanyol the match-announcer, for the first time in the ‘Special’ One’s reign, didn’t read out the phrase “… and coach, José Mourinho” at the end of the team announcement.

Why? To avoid the booing, jeering and whistling which had been growing week by week.

When Mourinho’s name was re-introduced for the next home league game, Real Sociedad, it received easily the most hostile ‘bronca’ (abuse) of his reign.

Real Madrid were in disarray

Perhaps still more encouragingly for United aficionados, one of the biggest running themes in the never-ending Real Madrid soap opera was Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘unhappiness’.

They would have easily been forgiven for thinking: ‘what better time to receive an old friend, applaud him for days of wine and roses and then spank his team’s backside?”

Ronaldo announced his nose was out of joint and that the club ‘knew why’ and he was hammered by Leo Messi in the Ballon D’Or voting having expected to win. Then came potentially the best news for United fans.

In short succession Ronaldo suffered a further twist to his troublesome right ankle, strained a leg muscle in the defeat to Granada and, most interestingly of all, had a massive blow up with Mourinho.

It came directly after the vital 2-0 home Copa del Rey win over Valencia in mid-January. Towards the end of the hard-fought victory where the visitors had scorned a hatful of chances to score, Mourinho was visibly unhappy with Ronaldo’s decision-making and positioning in the final few minutes. He shouted, he gesticulated, he returned to the dugout with steam emanating from both ears.

In the dressing room it was all off at Ludlow. Mourinho criticised Ronaldo’s work ethic, commitment to closing down the game at 2-0 and the fact that he hadn’t paid attention to the coach’s forcefully yelled instructions.

The player hit back with justified comments about the nerve it took to hammer him when he stepped up to support his beleaguered manager on every possible occasion – on the pitch, in the media and during some notable goal celebrations – when powerful journalists and growing number of fans were attacking him.

But however attractive all these details are to those at United who yearn to return to Wembley, scene of the club’s first European Cup in 1968 and a place which now needs some reparation after the most comprehensive defeat of Sir Alex’s entire 26-year reign, against Barcelona in 2011, the fact is that all that glitters is not gold.

Against this backdrop of confusion, aggression, doubt and a title weakly defended Ronaldo has been utterly and absolutely sublime. The worse things get, the better he performs.

Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates

In the 10 games since the Champions League draw was made in Nyon Ronaldo has scored 13 times, including three hat-tricks.

What is most admirable is that while others have let their form peak and trough like the graph on a lie detector in the manager’s office at a horsemeat plant, Ronaldo has always led from the front.

At Granada in a 1-0 defeat his team stunk the house out. But his work ethic and his attitude proved that he’s unwilling to accept the vagaries of form or fitness.  Even when literally nothing is going for him he’s still up for it.

For a player of that talent, wealth and achievement to be in a side so fractured that they barely even got one effort on goal against a team which was nearly relegated last season must have been frustrating beyond words.

But his attitude, play and goal record is extremely reminiscent of that 2007/8 season at United when he won the title, the Champions League, Ballon D’Or and FIFA World Player.

Ronaldo is carrying Madrid

Some months before Ronaldo banged out 42 goals during that amazing season Carlos Queiroz told a friend of mine that United planned to use Ronaldo as a central striker a great deal in the coming 12 months.

Partly because Sir Alex Ferguson and Queiroz thought he could become an effective new weapon, partly to free Wayne Rooney to play on the left but partly because ‘Cristiano needs to have the ceiling raised, he needs a challenge because he’s so, so talented that, otherwise, he’ll get bored or hit a comfort zone’.

It proved to be a dazzling idea. Ronaldo carried an ankle problem all that season, often phoned his friend and former fitness coach Walter Di Salvo to vent his frustration at having to carry an injury and at having to play ‘out of position’.

But adversity was his stimulus. The tougher the going, the more he produced.

So it is at the moment. His form is such that he’s carrying the team. No question.

His determination, his goals and his naked ambition to win Real Madrid the ‘Decima’ (their 10th Champions Cup) have converted the Bernabéu faithful, previously a little chilly and underwhelmed by his manner, into an adoring public.

His name is now, finally, chanted, the front cover of Marca proclaims him the new Alfredo Di Stefano, his overall team play is superior to that at United and the goal flow is prodigious.

The three which destroyed Sevilla at the weekend take him beyond the legendary Paco Gento (six European Cup winners’s medals) to sixth in Real Madrid’s all-time scoring list – after three and a half seasons!

He has 182 goals in 179 competitive matches and now only Hugo Sánchez, Ferenc Puskas, Santillana, Di Stéfano and Raúl are ahead of him – but nobody on that list has scored at a better goal per appearance rate.

‘The fact that the Bernabéu is finally singing my name, that the ‘feeling’ has changed is a dream come true for me’, Ronaldo told AS last week.

‘The support has taken note that I give body and soul for this club and the amount of affection and appreciation I now get on the street, at the games and from fans in the media touches me. I can really feel that the Bernabéu has taken me as one of ‘their own’ now.

‘It still surprises me that I was viewed and treated differently before because I’ve not changed. It’s just that more people have focussed on how much I give to the team, how determined I am to win the ‘Decima’ and set aside other, less important things.

‘I’m even noticing fewer insults and fewer chants of ‘Cristiano we hope you die’ at other grounds around the country. I can’t please all the people all the time – not even God manages that. It’s part of a big change since I told the President that I was unhappy here. I’m enjoying my football, I like playing with these team mates and I swear on my son’s life that when I was sad it was never, under any circumstances, to do with money.

‘As for what happened with the manager, the things which happen in the dressing room stay there. “It’s a personal matter which is now all sorted out – everything’s fine’.

Jose Mourinho

As for the utter nonsense people used to trot out about Ronaldo not being a ‘big game’ player it’s worth noting that he’s made scoring against Barcelona a personal domain in recent Clásicos, he perpetually puts Atlético Madrid to the sword in derby matches, he hit two goals and an assist while Madrid were knocked out of the Champions League semi-final by Bayern Munich last season and this term he’s the competition’s leading scorer.

In a variety of interviews Ronaldo has made it clear that he thinks Madrid, pound for pound, are better than United but that they have to ‘go out and prove it’.

Fair point.

The loss of a world class keeper like Iker Casillas who has yet to taste defeat in four games against United, is a negative. But Diego López, signed from Sevilla, was once a very firm target for United themselves after playing them twice in the Champions League for Villarreal and not conceding a goal.

Equally, part of Ronaldo’s assertion may stem from his manager’s record against Sir Alex. Mourinho, with Porto, Chelsea and Inter has gone head to head with the United boss in 13 League, Champions League, Cup or League cup matches winning six, drawing five and losing only twice.

One key element for United, in this evenly balanced tie, is how they attack in Madrid. Any team, literally anyone, who is caught upfield and allows even this rather fractured version of Mourinho’s Madrid to break at speed will be punished.

Ronaldo, too, is at his absolute best when careering away upfield in a one v two or two v three battle just like 2007/8 at United.

If England’s champions-elect can defend, press and keep possession with calm and intelligence and not be caught on the counter then it’ll be over to Ronaldo to produce something special in order for Madrid to take an advantage to Manchester.

On his current form you might be wise not to bet against that happening.

Betting: Real Madrid v Manchester United
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