Graham Hunter: Why Real Madrid may lose the battle but win the war with Bayern Munich

Posted on April 29, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Real Madrid’s record in Germany is just so atrocious that you’d forgive the hoteliers, bar owners and resterauteurs in Lisbon for getting ahead of the game and laying in stocks of Deutsche phrase-books, lagoons of lager and a herd of sausage meat.

Big spending, bouncy, brash, hungry and thirsty Bavarians are coming to town. Right?

But dispensing with the lies and damn lies and heading straight for statistics there’s at least some data to suggest that the reigning European champions have a chunky task on their hands tonight (7.45pm).

While Los Blancos have lost five and drawn only one of their last six visits to Munich every single one of those last six results (a quintet of 2-1′s and a 1-1 draw) would serve to qualify Madrid for the final if it were reproduced this evening.

The last time Madrid failed to score in Bavaria one of the main protagonists of the war of words around last week’s tie, Franz Beckenbauer, was wearing short trousers and boots and Los Blancos’ midfield play was being run by a certain tall, skinny Vicente Del Bosque. (April, 1976, if you feel the need to know).

Shoot over here to all the latest odds on desktop| mobile

Franz Beckenbaeur 840

More heat than light

The heat generated over the first leg had a lot to do with tactics, philosophy, internal warring, possession and ‘sterility’.

Within Spain, certainly within the Santiago Bernabéu there was no frothing at the mouth about the fact that the nine time European champions decided, in advance, not to compete for possession and chose a strategy of counter-attack football.

Some of the Bayern players, Thomas Müller in particular, scoffed a little at the tactic – amazed that it flew so brazenly in the face of Madrid’s history, and in the knowledge that it would be unforgiveable at Bayern.

The ‘row’ factor centred on just that Bavarian philosophy. They are, by nature, a ‘sturm und drang‘ club – conflict, desire, antagonism, stress, hunger, pressure.

They play intelligent football, talented football – but not percentage football.

If they were a driver they’d be Ayrton Senna, if they were a flavour they’d be tabasco. If they were music they’d be AC/DC.

Slide over to the latest Champions League betting on desktop| mobile

Pep Guardiola840

On the (counter) attack

Guardiola was criticised (again) by Beckenbauer. L’Equipe splashed it’s next edition with the headline ‘Real Politik’ stating that Bayern had been taught a lesson in ‘real’ life and efficacy.

Guardiola’s possession football was mocked.

I thought that there was a dreadful, ill informed reaction to how Bayern played to the exclusion of proper analysis of what actually happened in the first leg – ie how close the German champions were to doing something special.

However, I think there has also been some confusion emanating from the first leg about Real Madrid and what brand of football they espouse.

Three of the Champions League semi-final teams last week played on the counter attack. But I’d argue that there was a clear difference between what Real Madrid chose to do and Chelsea’s (understandable) parking of the bus at the Calderon.

Madrid don’t revoke possession – it’s just that they are extremely effective with what they have.

ronaldo_freekick

You’re very Possessive

Take their Champions League record this season as proof.

Away to Copenhagen they won 2-0 (with 59% possession). A home to Galatasaray they won 4-1 (50%). A way to Juve they drew 2-2 (52%). At home to Juve they won 2-1 (52%). At home to Copenhagen they won 4-0 (58%). Away to Galatasaray they won 6-1 (50%).

In the first knock-out round they beat Schalke 6-1 away (57%) and at home 3-1 (55%). Then they beat Dortmund in the first quarter final 3-0 (58%) and lost to them away 2-0 (49%).

They compete for the ball, they don’t sit and speculate, waiting on the Mourinho doctrine that the more the other side has possession the more likely it is they’ll make a mistake.

But Madrid are quite confident that if they have somewhere near a fair share of the ball then they’ll outscore the opposition – sometimes heavily.

They are startlingly effective as evidenced by their 12 goals away to Galatasaray and Schalke on an average 53.5% possession shows.

It’s part of the reason that Guardiola, in the build up to this second leg, has been emphasising that he expects to require three goals from his men in order to go through.

The case for the defence

Instinct tells me that it’s worth looking at Madrid’s two central defenders.

During the three previous semi finals which Los Blancos have reached consecutively Pepe, for all his football ability, has been a ‘sleeper’.

Sent off in the first (home) leg against Barcelona – Leo Messi’s two goals followed instantly.

Two years ago against Bayern he foolishly and needlessly gave away the penalty from which Arjen Robben squared the tie at 3-3 in the second leg.

Last season he was, utterly ruthlessly, exposed by Marko Reus and Robert Lewandowski. The striker gave Pepe a lesson in clinical penalty box football and should have sent him a bouquet of flowers and an apology for humiliation when the dust settled.

Can he amend that besmirched record tonight?

Then there’s Ramos.

Head on over to the latest Champions League betting on desktop| mobile

Ramos 840

Wounded pride

Two seasons ago he was mocked, mercilessly, for his crucial penalty miss, skied over the bar, at the decisive moment in the shoot-out to reach the final at the Allianz Arena.

He was so furious, this Errol Flynn footballer, at the cruelty of the reception to that moment (people portrayed his shot hitting Felix Baumgartner’s head as he was preparing to jump out of Red Bull Stratos and the video went viral) that he decided to even the score by ‘Panenka-chipping’ the Portugal keeper in the European Championship semi final during 2012.

On Saturday, he was rampaging forward and tried to get on the end of two Ronaldo crosses against Osasuna before finally heading home on the hour.

He’s on the verge of missing the final, should they qualify, given that he’s on a booking. But his attitude and actions were those of a man (in my knowledge of him) who’s still got a thorn in his side.

Weakness or strength – the rampaging, Boys-Own, ‘I can do anything if I try’ attitude which makes Ramos such an attractive footballer to watch? (Albeit with Real Madrid’s record red card total)

You decide. All I know is that I’ll be riveted to the game.

Off the fence

The odds and the sane, calm part of my brain says: Bayern, at home, only one goal to overcome – they HAVE to do it.

The Sergio Ramos, hot-blooded, Celtic part of my brain (the 95% part) says … it’s Madrid to go through on a 2-2 aggregate scoreline.

La Decima beckons?

For Madrid to go through on aggregate 2-2 means they get beaten 2-1 tonight by Munich @ 7/1.
Ramos is 25/1 to score the first goal or 8/1 to score at anytime over the 90 minutes tonight.

You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter on @BumperGraham

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Real Madrid + Bayern Munich = Goals. Guaranteed!!

Posted on April 23, 2014 by SoccerCapper

If the meeting of the irresistible force and the immoveable object in Madrid last night proved too much for your taste and you crave some adrenalin then the second Champions League semi final on consecutive nights in the Spanish capital may prove much less resistable.

Not only is Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich one of the world’s great grudge match, the two clubs have generally disliked and envied each other for generations, the 20 previous meetings between the Spanish and Bavarian royalty have produced 59 goals

There has never yet been a 0-0 and you’ll be damn lucky, watching this type of contest, if there’s no red card, a fan punching the referee or a player attacking an opposition number sufficiently wantonly to earn a 5 year band from European football.

All of which is readily discoverable if you look back at the knuckle-duster bust-ups in which the two clubs have indulged since Bayern first tipped Vicente del Bosque, Gunter Netzer and Paul Breitner out of the European Cup semi final (Ps Amancio was red carded) back in 1976.

A Long Bern-ing Rivalry

It was the club’s first meeting and since then Bayern have noticeably had the upper hand.

They’ve won 11 of the twenty matches, they’ve eliminated Los Blancos five out of the six times they’ve met at this semi final stage – the last time via penalties, back in 2012 with the contest tied at 3-3.

This is a roller coaster for which you’ll need a seat-belt.

Guardiola_Ancelotti_stats

Then there’s the two managers – each a debutant in this fixture, but neither man in any way inexperienced in terms of their rivals tonight.

Though Pep Guardiola has never coached a team against Real Madrid apart from his native FC Barcelona his record at the Bernabéu makes remarkable reading – 5 wins and 2 draws. No defeats.

In fact the last time Madrid lost at home in the Champions League it was to Guardiola’s Barcelona back in April 2011 – a week after winning the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona at the Mestalla. Spooky?

As for the longer-in-the-tooth Carlo Ancelotti he’s never lost to Bayern – four wins and two draws while he was coach of AC Milan.

So, what gives tonight?

Well, while Pep Guardiola has been making ‘this tie comes at the wrong time for us when we’ve lost a bit of cutting edge’ noises and generally playing possum the fact appears to be that he thinks his team is more athletic and can ‘hassle’ Madrid into mistakes.

To Xab’ And To Hold

Having taken a little longer than expected to fully recover from the groin surgery he underwent last summer because of a subsequent metatarsal injury, Xabi Alonso’s return to Ancelotti’s team has been fundamental.

It has given balance and order to midfield, it has protected the back four and it has allowed the Italian to deploy a 4-3-3 formation – which has been an enormous success.

Lately, however, it has felt as though the 32 year old packing in 36 games since late October has been a demanding schedule.

xabialonso

His reading of the game is as good as ever, his use of the ball exemplary but there’s been the feeling that he’s positioning himself a few metres deeper than usual as if to anticipate that opponents may try to produce driving runs away from him and he’s compensating just by remaining a little deep.

From Guardiola’s training session on Monday (remember Guardiola played that very position throughout his career) there could be heard the shouts to his players: “Don’t leave Alonso or Ronaldo alone for a minute – get on them all the time”

Pep-er Casillas Early On

The Catalan was also insistent that his players, particularly Kroos, Martinez, Ribery, Müller and Robben, break the normal team orders (which are to favour passing to a better-placed team mate over shooting) and strike at goal early and regularly.

casillas_robben

It isn’t a great deductive leap that he is questioning whether Iker Casillas, who has only been playing the Cup competitions and not the League campaign, might be a little rusty if he’s repeatedly asked to save testing shots swerving at him from distance?

While Madrid have won the last four home matches against Bayern they’ve only historically been able to eliminate their bête noir IF they don’t concede at home.
Other than that their record in Germany is, literally, appalling and they’ve lost four of the five semi finals of this competition they’ve competed against the Bavarians.

For the home side everything hinges not only on whether Ronaldo and Bale start, the former nearly recovered from hamstring problems the latter suffering badly from flu this week, but on whether they can perform at peak.

With them Madrid have tremendous speed on the counter, the power of two quite different free kick takers, danger from long range shots, real aerial threat and the importance of a tremendous partnership which is developing between the two players.

ronaldo_freekick

Two years ago Madrid showed, albeit in an aggregate defeat, that they are capable of playing at a tempo which the Germans rarely face and which, until Pepe gave away a needless penalty, looked like sending them through to the final.

Tonight the keys for Ancelotti’s side are: can he give the BBC (Bale, Benzema Cristiano) license to be creative; can his team keep a clean sheet and can they produce that roaring tempo which, every so often, makes the Bernabéu a daunting place for any opponent?

BET NOW: DESKTOP | MOBILE

843x403_real_madrid_v_bayern_munich

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter on how Atletico Madrid are like Chelsea of old, but why Jose Mourinho can take advantage of small margins

Posted on April 22, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea, Champions League semi-final (Tuesday, April 22, 19.45)

The neatest way to summarize what Jose Mourinho and Co face in Madrid tonight is that Chelsea are about to endure the most unsettling prospect of facing ‘themselves’.

Atletico are Chelsea of April 2005. Thibaut Courtois is Petr Cech, Diego Costa is Didier Drogba and above all Diego Simeone is Mourinho at his very best.

Little wonder under-pressure Jose wants to repatriate Courtois next season and is well on his way to signing Diego Costa.

diego simeone, atletico madrid manager

Betting: Can the ‘new Chelsea’ beat the ‘old Chelsea?

Similarities with Chelsea 2005

Back in 2005 the Blues were horribly difficult to defeat and reached this semi-final stage by defeating both Porto and FC Barcelona – just as Atleti have done this season. But the greater similarities are in attitude, system, work ethic, all-for-one-and-one-for-all spirit.

Simeone is a street-tough man who isn’t afraid to admit he relies on his understanding of the Zodiac and horoscopes as part of his man-management techniques

‘Sanitarians need a lot of affection, but if you’re born under Scorpio you respond better to a bit of tough love. My star sign is Taurus – we can be a bit difficult to deal with. We’ll give you our heart and soul but only if you treat us well. If you try to force us to do something against our will, watch out.’

Tease him if you dare

Just like Mourinho used to have the ultimate capacity to achieve, Simeone has brought all his players, reserves too, to the boil at the same time – and kept them simmering all season. It’s one hell of a trick.

Champions League semi finals, Chelsea v Atletico via Graphic News

Simeone’s promise to his president

You could compare him to both Pep Guardiola and Mourinho for his absolute intensity – every minute of every working day. And in his spare time. He’ll often go to the cinema, catch the first 15 minutes but then become utterly overtaken by some new thought on training, or a rival, or the last match and need to walk out so that he can make notes.

Friends and family have tired of asking him whether he enjoyed a television programme, a movie or a concert. Usually he’ll have taken in about five per cent of what they have – because his restless football mind won’t let him alone.

Three trophies ago he took over with Atletico sliding down the table and able to peer over their shoulder at the relegation zone. He told his new president:

‘I’m going to make it unpleasant to play us, teams are going to suffer’.

He did. And they have

To this day his motto is: ‘If your car isn’t quite top notch then you have to find a way to puncture the other guy’s tyres so that you can keep up with him.’

John Terry and Frank Lampard 14/5/2006 00179078

What Terry and Lampard think…

When I spoke to John Terry and Frank Lampard (above in 2006) at Cobham last week and asked them about this tie each man pointed out that the general impression of Chelsea having had an extremely favourable draw in avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern didn’t tally with their views of the Spanish league leaders.

Each of them watches Spanish football and while each is respectful of the team it’s also Diego Simeone’s electric buzz of energy, animation and activity on the touchline which has impressed them.

My words, not theirs, but I think they see a version of Mourinho – just younger and as hungry as the Portuguese was back then.

For those who are trying to size up this match it’s important to point out that often Atletico’s margins are the smallest. Lots of 1-0 and 2-1 wins. An indication of rigour, but also an indication that if Chelsea can ‘do a job’ on them then taking a draw or a one-goal win back to London isn’t utterly impossible.

Diego Costa

Betting: Fancy Hunter’s tip of a tight Chelsea result?

More to Atleti than Costa

However, there’s a great deal to say that’s pro-Atletico. In all 23 Liga and Champions League games at the Calderon this season they’ve conceded just 10 times.

Notwithstanding the eye-catching nature of Courtois’ and Costa’s work this is a team – genuinely a terrific blend of youth, experience, pace, positional play, mental toughness. Will to win.

For example, although the headline figure is that Costa (above), potentially Spain’s starting World Cup No9, has 35 goals this season it’s important to note than in Atletico’s last 12 games (since their last defeat) there have been nine different scorers – Costa, Villa, Koke, Raúl Garcia, Gabi, Diego, Godín, Arda Turan and Miranda.
In those same games there have been nine individual goal-assist producers – Villa, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, Gabi, Raúl Garcia, Diego Arda, Adrian and Miranda.

Try picking a first goalscorer out of that lot. Atletico have Spain’s best set-play record offensively – they practice remorselessly and very often get it right.

That, allied to the fact that Atleti are noticeably good in the air in both attacking and defensive situations would suggest that conceding free kicks in the last third must be ‘verboten’ for Chelsea.

A little note for those who like in-play, should Atleti get a penalty and Costa is on the field he is likely to continue taking them – despite the fact that he’s missed four of eight this season.

Little details like that could well decide the whole tie and progress to Lisbon.

It’s old Chelsea against new Chelsea. May the better Chelsea win.

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Why Barcelona have laboured lately, but things can work in their favour for El Clasico

Posted on March 22, 2014 by SoccerCapper

El Clasico, Sunday 8pm, Sky Sports 1

BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

Those who thought, a couple of weeks ago, that this Clasíco was shaping up like a premium Mike Tyson versus an eight stone weakling may see no reason at all to change their mind.

It’s just a fortnight since Barcelona put in what must be their worst league performance since January 2003 (then it was a 3-0 away defeat to Racing Santander, this time a pathetic display in losing 1-0 to Valladolid) and the reigning champions have only 12 out of a possible 21 points in recent matches.

Set that against Real Madrid’s relentless treatment of every kind of rival, Copa, Champions League and La Liga and this was shaping up as a mis-match.

But not for me the hoary old chestnut that ‘anything can happen’ in a ‘derby’ or a ‘Clasíco’ – there are a clutch of specific, interesting factors which while Madrid may deserve to remain favourites, narrow the gap.

blog_el-clasico-stats

Firstly the pride of the Barcelona players has been horribly wounded. Not, for once, by criticism from the media and fans but because they, as a group, fully realized that the level of commitment, attitude and effort they showed at Valladolid was totally unacceptable.

Both the victories since then, beating Manchester City 2-1 and thumping Osasuna 7-0, have been cathartic.

Key players performed with zest, concentration, energy and aggression.

Both, granted, were at the Camp Nou where Barcelona’s vulnerability has been dramatically less evident.

But tied with the recent wins at Sevilla and City there was evidence that the absolutely crucial remnants of Barcelona’s golden era are locked and loaded – Messi, Iniesta, Valdés in particular.

It isn’t quite stating the obvious as much as once would have been the case, but Messi is the key.

Mess-ter and Commander

His performances in 2014, since he lost the Ballon D’Or to Cristiano Ronaldo, have been a strange mix. When he’s played listlessly he’s either scored or assisted. When he, and the team, have hit top gear, he’s looked brilliant once more.

Historically he loves this match. The Argentinian has 18 goals in 26 meetings with Madrid, one more and he’ll pinch the all time record off his countryman Alfredo Di Stefano (30 Clasícos).

This calendar year in 17 matches, all competitions, he’s scored 17 times and made seven more.

This, just when people were beginning to question his appetite, his zip and his mood.

One might argue that Sky Sports bringing us the genius of Ronaldo and Messi every weekend has only taught the dullards to be quixotic and impatient rather than appreciative and wise.

But attentive Messi-watchers should have learned something else.

He always insists that no matter his prolific scoring, no matter that he produces lava-hot spurts of play which take a match away from any rival of any class he relies on a team performance.

He doesn’t think he produces one-man-wins, nor does he want anyone else to think that.

blog_messi-clasico

Martino, just as against City, needs to be smart enough to unite Cesc, Iniesta, Xavi and Busquets in the same starting XI.

If he doesn’t, if he thinks that a three man midfield and three out-and-out strikers will suffice in a 4-3-3 v 4-3-3 battle then Madrid will win, I’m sure of that.

As Time Goes Bye …

More, I think there’s the ‘old showman’ factor.

This is guaranteed to be Victor Valdés’ last Liga Clasíco – already stubborn as a mule, he’ll give extra to ensure that it isn’t a defeat.

Whether or not Puyol makes the squad everyone around him will be conscious that this, too, is not ‘au-revoir’ but adieu. For good.

There’s an all for one one for all spirit to this squad. He’s held in reverential affection by those around him – again, there’ll be an extra effort.

Xavi has a deal until 2016 but there’s pressure on his services for next season. Perhaps he’ll stay, only he knows. But IF he knows this might be his final Bernabéu appointment then watch him attempt to switch his ‘passometer’ into overdrive.

None of these factors win matches on their own, but they narrow the gap.

Then there is the lack of the ‘fear factor’. Most of these Barcelona players have played in the majority of their club’s last ten visits to the Bernabéu.

Those matches have yielded five wins, three draws and two defeats. A remarkable record.

Real Improvement

None of this is to detract from Real Madrid’s status as favourites. They are four points ahead for a good reason. Carlo Ancelotti’s team haven’t lost in any competition since the 2-1 defeat to Barça back in October. The swing in their favour has been ten points since then.

For months now they have been pressing the ball with more co-ordination and energy than Barça, they have been quick and accurate in their use of the ball.

Thus far this has been Ronaldo’s season, not Messi’s. Not only is his goal tally outrageous – closer to fifty than thirty – he’s forming a wonderful partnership with Bale who keeps on serving him assists.

More, Ronaldo has long since learned to love ‘bullying’ Barcelona.

Having failed to score in his first five games against them for Madrid and Manchester United he’s subsequently hit 12 in 17 Clasícos.

blog_ronaldo-clasico

Headers, breakaways, subtle touches, shots from distance, penalties – the full repertoire. Barcelona’s only successful tactic against Ronaldo is, just as when Spain play Portugal, is to stop the ball getting to him. (Back to that four man midfield and trying to get a head-lock on possession) if they fail to do that it’s almost guaranteed he’ll score again.

Tired old excuses or a Real worry?

But if there’s a case to make that the gap between the two sides has narrowed then it might pay to heed the regular references over the last two and half weeks which Ancelotti has made to ‘tiredness’ and the ‘recuperation’ of his players.

Also to the fact that one or two Madrid players, Pepe and Di Maria, have been hit by high temperatures and allergies this week.

Last weekend in Malaga there was a drop-off in creativity and intensity and while some of Ancelotti’s key men were initially rested against Schalke on Wednesday Xabi Alonso (so vital), Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo were not while Bale and Dani Carvajal were required to come on.

Should Madrid need a tiger in their tank, however, it’s the knowledge that they defeated Barcelona three times last season, twice at home once away, and three points this weekend will almost certainly put the defending champions out of the title race.

Some value? Well, Real Madrid scored four headers, spread between Rafa Varane, Sergio Ramos and Cristiano Ronaldo, in last season’s Clasícos.

Spare a thought for Barça’s defenders, too. Widely lambasted when the fault is often the lack of pressing by players in front of them it’s still the case that Carles Puyol, Eric Abidal and Jordi Alba have all scored Clasíco goals in the last couple of seasons and …. Dani Alves recently scored in each leg of the Champions League tie against Manchester City. Fancy it?

Ref justice

The referee: his decisions distinctly helped Barcelona last October (denying Ronaldo a clear penalty) but still Martino’s players absolutely distrust him. Their hackles will be up and they’ll be in ‘protest’ mode from the get-go.

This despite the fact that with Undiano Mallenco Barcelona has a lower loss % than Madrid do under him; their rivals see massively more bookings with him (Barça 98 yellows:opponents 125 yellows) than is the case when he refs Madrid (RM 133:134 opponents), his penalty ratio goes the same way (Barça 9:3 opponents while Real Madrid 9:7 opponents). But the Barça players think he’s too slow to book, too liberal with foul-play as a tactic .. and I’d say nobody will feel a fool for taking a long look at the odds for penalties and red cards.

But to make a long story short. If Barcelona control the ball they’ll go home with no worse than a draw … and still in the title chase. If Martino selects the wrong starting XI then sit back and watch Madrid boss midfield and pick off their historic rivals.

It’s dangerous picking a winner in a game of such tight margins, but all things considered, I’m going for Barca to win it by a single goal.

Graham’s bet

Barcelona to win by exactly one goal – 4/1
BET NOW: MOBILE | DESKTOP

843x403_Messi_MBS_Anytime

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Why, if Barcelona get their tactics wrong, Man City can punish them

Posted on March 12, 2014 by SoccerCapper

It’s odd after the Catalan euphoria of a 0-2 win at the Etihad in the first leg that subsequent power-plays by the two Madrid clubs (Atletico 5-1 winners over Milan, Real Madrid 6-1 up on Schalke) that Barça somehow profile as the ‘weak’ man of the Spanish Champions League trio.

The aura which they re-established that night in Manchester, whispering reminiscences of better times gone by, has been dissipated by subsequent horror-shows in La Liga.

Add the fact that it’s now palpably clear that Mauricio Pellegrini should have dictated a faster-paced, high-pressure, high-up-the-pitch strategy in the first leg (patented in Barça defeats by Valladolid and Real Sociedad) and there’s the whiff of a shock drifting over the Camp Nou.

Manuel PellegriniTwitter

Do City stand a chance in the Nou Camp? Put your money where your mouth is here: Desktop | Mobile

Vincent Kompany, all seriousness and articulate football analysis in the press room of the Camp Nou on Tuesday, very evidently felt that football inherently provides great nights, great shocks like City will need but also warned that at the first sign of complacency from the visitors that Barcelona are easy meat and ‘the beast might awake’.

Those who favour City will talk about Barcelona’s defence. It’s not a false point but I think it also misses the key issue. It’s in midfield where Barcelona have begun to be over-run.

Attack is the best form of defence

When the Catalans were at their very best the defence began with the front three – perm from Pedro, Leo Messi, Samuel Etoo, Thierry Henry and David Villa.

For opposition defenders it was simply less hassle to get shot of the ball than put up with Blaugrana strikers, backed up by midfielders or wing backs, nipping and snarling around their heels.

By definition this meant that the midfield was almost always on the front foot.

Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, Yaya Touré and Seydou Keita et al were constantly picking up the scraps of possession won by the front three relatively high up the pitch and immediately pressing the advantage the way that the forward line pressed the ball – with urgency and intelligence.

All of this meant that with predictable regularity the majority of the defending which Barcelona’s back line did was based on anticipating trouble coming, reading it, intercepting it and, more regularly than right now as teams score from set plays or shoot early, relying on Victor Valdes making one-on-one saves when the defensive line was penetrated.

Etoo Iniesta and Pique celebrate

Currently neither of the two lines in front of them are protecting the Barça defence the way they once did.

While I would argue that both Dani Alves and Javier Mascherano are making consistently flawed decisions on positioning and when/when not to tackle, the impression that the roof is falling in on the Barcelona back four is exacerbated by: how much extra work they are having to cope with; what their role was originally constructed by Pep Guardiola to be (largely offensive) and how deep they feel obliged to play.

Which leads to the fundamental decision facing Tata Martino with regards to team selection, team formation and the philosophy of how to control this tie tonight.

tata martino

Get stuck in to the latest Barcelona v Man City odds here: Desktop | Mobile

By his own admission after the first leg against City the cluster of matches (Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad and the match in Manchester) not only had the Spanish champions played well, controlled matches won with style or qualified for the Cup Final (against Real Sociedad), Barcelona had managed to concede very few chances on goal.

Part of his success was to tamper with the outright 4-3-3 formation, where the front three are all pure strikers, and to ensure that as often as possible Andres Iniesta, Xavi, Sergio Busquets and Cesc Fabregas are united in the same team.

More, when either Iniesta or Cesc is named in the front three but, effectively performs like an (attacking) midfielder Barcelona’s shape is 4-4-2 or, when the full backs push on, 3-5-2.

Absolutely Fabregas – Cesc has to start

The centre of the pitch is well-worked, possession is circulated, the ball is dominated, Barcelona introduce a sense of calm and control, the defence returns to reading and anticipating (rather than dealing with the roof falling in over their heads) fewer corners are conceded (vital) and Tata Martino’s side become formidable once more.

Yet something in the Argentinian seems to dare him to ignore the obvious. In their two horror defeats, to Real Sociedad in the league and then Valladolid last weekend, he has opted for three out and out strikers, left the midfield denuded – and been whupped for his troubles.

If Martino gets his selection right – Xavi, Cesc, Busquets and Iniesta must all start – then whatever the result on the night you can bet your bottom dollar that the home side will qualify.

IF his tactical statement (as he postulated on Tuesday) is ‘we are Barça, we are at home, we play 4-3-3 as a point of principal’ then City can smack their lips and approach the match with relish.

Silva and Aguero celebrate

Martino has at his disposal a tiring, ageing, but nonetheless 24 karat group of footballers who are hugely stung by their recent losses and how they are being savagely criticised here in Catalunya (and Madrid) expect a reaction.

Note, please, that Barcelona limited City’s corners in the first leg. And that their marking scheme had Gerard Piqué free on the edge of the six yard box and Dani Alves paired with Alvaro Negredo.

I saw Negredo last week at the Calderon when a Brazilian-born striker, Diego Costa, relegated him to the Spain bench for the entire 90 minutes against Italy. He wasn’t chuffed. He’s found goals hard to produce in the last seven matches but is ideally shaped to end that here.

Negredo to notch a header, both teams to score but, if Martino isn’t stubborn and simply reads the runes correctly with four midfielders, Barcelona to do no worse than draw. And to proceed.

Mind you, as Kompany correctly points out, ‘football is great because it routinely provides remarkable nights when remarkable things happen’.

Stay tuned.

Hunter’s Punts

Negredo to score at anytime: 3/1
Both teams to score: 4/7
Both teams to score and Barca to win: 17/10 – or – Both teams to score and draw: 4/1

Going with Graham or ignoring Hunter’s punts? Either way all the latest Barcelona v Man City odds are just a click away: Desktop | Mobile

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Brain freezes and a lenient ref will cost Barcelona in El Clasico

Posted on March 3, 2014 by SoccerCapper

You probably know of Sir Isaac Newton thanks to his famous First Law which, if you discard the mathematical theorem, simply says: “The Clásico will be all about Ronaldo and Messi again.”

But he patented another important physical rule, lesser known, which is that ‘for every action there will be an equal and opposite reaction’.

Isaac was a big football fan, hooked on Revista de la Liga and a regular Paddy Power punter. Had he been around today he’d be telling you to look at the last five years of FC Barcelona’s play to find the proof of his scientific doctrine. Particularly ahead of Saturday’s Clásico.

Under Pep Guardiola Barcelona pushed so hard against errors that, particularly in the biggest games, they practically eliminated them.

Pep at Barca

Tiki-taka and clusterf***s

Despite playing the most intricate, most difficult, highest-paced technical football we have probably ever seen (and I do mean ever) Guardiola’s Barça consistently chose the right passes, pressed and robbed the ball in the right way, moved off the ball with unrelenting intelligence and alternated between killing off the opponent and killing the tempo of the match with computer-like reliability.

Moreover, particularly in Clásicos, Barcelona displayed a shark-like hunger to wait for and then exploit even the most minor miscalculation or slip in concentration Madrid showed.

The last year of football at the Camp Nou, without Guardiola, has evidenced the equal and opposite reaction pushing right back. And often pushing harder.

From the first Guardiola-free Clasico, which was August 2012, until now there have been six Barça-Real Madrid meetings of which the Catalans have won one.

More importantly for fans of Newton, and those who like a well informed punt, Barcelona have committed a series of catastrophic goal-errors.

Ronaldo celebrating Portugal

Barcelona brain freeze

From the moment in the first post-Guardiola Clasico when Iker Casillas makes an extraordinary save face to face with Xavi, which would have left the home side 4-1 up, it starts.

Madrid chase a ‘lost’ ball all the way up the pitch, Victor Valdés has a brain freeze, Di Maria nips possession off his toes and scores for 3-2. You wouldn’t see it in a primary school playground.

Mascherano and Piqué succumbing to the long ball to concede twice in the return game and Adriano getting himself sent off for a last man challenge – a series of positional errors. They lose 2-1.

In the first Liga Clasico last season, a belter of a match in the event, Dani Alves doesn’t mark Ronaldo, and Valdés is surprised at his near post for Madrid’s first goal. At the second Adriano lumberingly plays Ronaldo onside for 2-2, Barcelona having protected their lead for all of five minutes. Ahead twice, no better than a point.

When Madrid stroll home 3-1 at the Camp Nou last January to win the Copa semi final Piqué dives into a penalty tackle, Puyol falls over in front of Di Maria’s dribble for the second goal and Varane is unmarked for the header which adds salt in the wound.

Then in the second Liga Clasico, when Barcelona play and behave as if they know their goose is cooked, Morata goes completely unchallenged down the left to cross for Benzema who’s unmarked at the back post to score.

Pique in action for Spain

Enhanced special: Gareth Bale anytime @ 5/1 Mobile | Desktop

Errors, errors everywhere

Eleven horrible errors which all either allow extremely avoidable goals or bring a red card – in the space of just one year and six Clasicos.

What they mask is that during considerable periods in the Supercup ties, the first league Clasico and particularly the 1-1 first leg Copa semi final tie, Barça played some top quality, creative, inventive football which carried threat and seemed to indicate that their collective confidence against Madrid was undamaged without Guardiola.

But their ferocity, their attention to detail and their intensity was.

Piqué explains it best.

“Historically Barcelona has been behind Real Madrid. During the last 10 or 15 years there has emerged an extraordinary generation of players without whom we couldn’t have inverted the situation as we have regularly. We can’t spend what they do. Then there is Pep. The best coach I’ve had, particularly in terms of analyzing an opponent.

“It felt like he’d been watching videos of them for 24 hours every day. Before a match he’d say, ‘look, they play like this, or like that and we’ll have to shift a little to the left or the right in order to blunt them .. and then we’ll attack like this…’. He created a defined identity in how we thought and we played. It was the same away to Granada, away to Malaga or on a pitch covered in puddles. Pep really created this team.”

His absence created a vacuum into which Madrid strode.

But signs that things are changing under Tata

These last few weeks while the Catalan press has been scratching around for things to complain about there have been signs that while Tata Martino is no Guardiola, nor pretends to be, he’s been true to his word in what he wants to restore. Greater concentration, better pressing (albeit less high up the pitch) exploiting the occasional long diagonal pass aimed at Neymar and more regular shooting from distance in order to vary the attack.

He goes into this game with some doubts.

Is it simply because Messi has missed a couple of weeks with a thigh problem that he’s looked subdued during his minutes on the pitch against Osasuna and Milan this week?

Will Piqué, who has played with consistency, good judgement and strength this season, be fit to start having felt hamstring pain on Tuesday in Milan?

Should Pedro or Cesc start up front with Alexis allowed to play as an impact sub when the game is stretched?

And, importantly, what kind of game will referee Undiano Mallenco allow?

referee Undiano Mallenco

Who will come out on top in the El Clasico? Get the latest odds here: Mobile | Desktop

Real Madrid have won all games under this ref

Without a hint of suggesting he might be biassed it remains a fact that Barcelona’s players think he’s allowed Madrid too much freedom to play physically, allowed them to gain an intimidatory edge in the recent Clásicos he’s taken charge of – all of which Madrid have won. (1-0 in the Copa Final of 2011, 1-2 in Guardiola’s final Clásico and 1-3 in the Copa semi-final last season)

In signing Neymar, but nobody else, Barcelona effectively made one of two statements: Either they think that they already ‘own’ the remedy to the embarrassing run of one win in six Clásicos or they think that the Liga, Copa and Champions League can be won irrespective of how they perform against Los Blancos.

Recently they’ve been victims of Madrid’s greater height, power and athleticism plus street-smarts, concentration and cutting edge. Quite a list.

But, despite Madrid both cutting the points gap in the league this week (a win would put them equal top) and registering a third straight Champions League win they do not yet look as error free as they became against Barça in Mourinho’s last 18 months.

Gareth bale on Wales duty

Enhanced special: Gareth Bale anytime @ 5/1 Mobile | Desktop

Some ‘dark horse’ betting tips

At the time of writing the sides shape up like this…

Real Madrid: Diego, Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Marcelo: Khedira, Illarramendi, Modric: Bale, Ronaldo, Di Maria.
Barça: Valdés, Alves, Puyol, Bartra/Piqué, Adriano: Xavi, Busquets, Iniesta: Pedro, Messi, Neymar.

Hopefully the football will be glorious. Hopefully the side you back wins.

Some ‘dark-horse’ ideas? Tata Martino asking his side to shoot from distance more often does offer a chance of Busquets or Alves being a high-odds anytime scorer. Bale is by no means sure to start but in his intermittent time on the pitch he’s put shots on target, created a penalty and scored from Dani Carvajal’s cross.

Neymar will start as favourite to garnish his Clásico debut with a goal … but it’s feasible that Bale might end his rather frustrating start to life in La Liga, and making himself a bit of a Madrid legend in the process, by putting one in the Barça net.

To me it looks like another Bishop Desmond game. 2-2.

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Ronaldo v Zlatan – regardless of who prevails, we are dealing with true greats

Posted on March 3, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Even using the most basic Abacus skills there are a handful of contests taking place in Lisbon on Friday night – despite the world simply wanting to call it ‘Zlatan v Ronaldo’. Just like ‘The White Album’ was actually titled ‘The Beatles’ this event also has a ‘real’ name – Portugal v Sweden for a place at next summer’s World Cup. And there are other interests at play.

In the white corner, Real Madrid. They just renewed their greatest star, the striker who looks set to eclipse every club record, Puskas, Di Stefano, Raúl, and they committed close to €100m in salary in doing so. One of the yardsticks used by Ronaldo’s management company in negotiating the deal was that he should receive more than Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s €17m annual salary with Paris St Germain.

Madrid want their returns in victories over Barcelona, Liga titles, victories over Manchester United and Bayern Munich, Champions League titles. But they also need Ronaldo to be an advertising and sponsorship magnet. They need him to draw money to the club. Success in Brazil next summer, albeit for Portugal, embellishes those chances – it will be a significant and extremely painful loss to his club if Ronaldo fails to make it to what remains football’s biggest global impact.

Then there is something more nebulous – Zlatan’s off field worth to the Qatar Investment Authority and his club President Nasser Al-Khelaifi is huge and it’s prestige-based. They want trophies, they are a genuine Champions League contender but they want much more. Their aim is visibility, credibility, awareness – for Qatar. Zlatan, whether he likes it or not, is one of their salesmen and were he not to make it to the World Cup with Sweden it would sting his paymasters. And there’s a little side match which you’d imagine may influence matters.

Up-sepp-ing the applecart

When Sepp Blatter stood up and did his Captain Mainwairing on magic mushrooms act at the Oxford Union last month he unwittingly put Italian referee Nicola Rizzoli under huge extra pressure. This was the ‘Blatter-moment’ when he also asked his audience if they thought he was: “… a ruthless parasite sucking the lifeblood out of the world and out of football.

The godfather of the FIFA gravy train. An out-of-touch, heartless schmoozer?” Answering a question about Leo Messi and Ronaldo he called the former a ‘nice boy’ and the latter a ‘commander’ before standing up, sucking in his girth and stomping about the stage to imitate a pompous military presence when demonstrating his view on the Portuguese.

He also committed the folly of pointing out that one of them ‘spend more on hairdressers’ and admitting a personal preference for Messi. NB: Just so that we are all clear the voting for the Ballon D’Or ends on November 15. So these two play offs can’t influence the vote positively in anyone’s favour – unless a handful of journalists and international team captains wait until the very last minute to email their votes and one or other of Zlatan or Ronaldo cut loose with a hatful of goals tonight.

Anyway because of Blatter’s words and deeds Madrid instantly sent off a communique stating their ‘repulsion’ at the ‘unjust’ actions and words and they stated, explicitly, their concern that Blatter had done enough to ‘condition some voters for the Ballon D’Or’ Ronaldo went further. On Twitter ‘he’ wrote: “This shows the respect and consideration that FIFA has for me, my club and my country. “Much is explained. “I wish Mr.Blatter health and a long life, with the certainty that he’ll continue to witness the successes of his favourite teams and players”

It reads as if there was legal advice before he posted it. But it also reads as if he suspects bias. In Portugal, ahead of a FIFA World Cup play-off there was furore. Every columnist, every news reporter, every fan will now become football’s version of the Witchfinder-General. They’ll sniff and hunt for any hint of bias and, worse, they’ll howl and roar for every decision to go their way with that passion of the unjustly wounded.

When Signor Rizzoli [or his mama] packed his whistle, notebook and hair gel for the Lisbon trip I hope he included a tin-hat and thick skin. Expect there to be penalty calls to be made by the officiating team. You just know it.

Zlat’s what you’d expect

ZLAT’S MAGIC – The ball isn’t coming to earth due to the force of gravity, Zlatan is actually controlling it with his mind (pic: Inpho)

Obviously enough the two stars approach the main contest in sublime form – arguably the best each of them have ever played. Zlatan made that very point about his own game this week admitting:

“I evolve all the time and even if I’m 32 now, I have the feeling that I keep improving and that I’ve never played this well”.

Each man is carrying his team on his back, each is showing new levels of leadership and maturity. Both of them signed-off for their clubs with hat tricks at the weekend. If you have a long memory it takes you back to 2006.

Prior to the German World Cup Nike launched their Joga Bonito advert campaign in which Eric Cantona sticks a ‘tablet’ in front of the young Ronaldo, shows him his opponent’s tricks and says: “This is Zlatan. Can you beat this?” The two footballer’s show their divine technique, arrogance. confidence and elegance until, at the end of the extended advert, Cantona admits: ‘Ooo weens? I dohn know…’

Who you WANT to win depends on whether or not you like marmite players. Neither of them are exactly the houswives’ choice. They divide opinion via the way they look, how they act, what they say .. and their perceived arrogance. To my eyes they are both extraordinary and we are privileged to live in an era when they, plus Messi, adorn our television screens.

Who would the tournament miss most? That’s subjective and the picture can be clouded a little by lies, damn lies and statistics. For example – Ronaldo is in his plenitude, he’s scoring at his highest every rate in club terms and he’s consistently produced goals in semi finals or finals for Real Madrid plus a flood of Clásico goals too. Yet the World Cup finals themselves tell lies with their CR7 stats.

Those stats make him look like a dud. In ten World Cup final matches Ronaldo has scored precisely twice. Against North Korea and a penalty against Iran. You have to admire his stance against totalitarian states though.

Ronaldo’s Korea low?

IT AIN’T HALF DIFFICULT – This goal against North Korea in 2010 represents precisely half of all Ronaldo’s World Cup goals (pic: Inpho)

Zlatan’s general tournament performances, if you take Euros into account, ain’t bad. A couple of ‘Best Goal’ winners one of which, the backheel against Italy in 2004, is amongst the most remarkable you’ll ever see. So, things to look for.

Before even trying to separate out whether Ronaldo or Zlatan might turn the tie in Lisbon it might be worth confronting the fact that goals are far from guaranteed. The last two meetings of these sides were nil-all draws, Portugal have fewer than a goal per game in the fifteen meetings with Sweden – let’s not go looking for champagne football here.

If one of the two Titans is to turn things it actually profiles as Zlatan. Ronaldo’s four goals in the last eight qualifying matches came against Luxembourg and Northern Ireland (a hat trick) whereas the Swede produces more regularly and against better opposition on current form. Where, perhaps, there might be a curveball is his notorious temperament.

Domestically, in Serie A, Signor Rizzoli likes a red card as much as the next man. One every three matches. Internationally he’s sent one player off in last 23 ties.

However Zlatan facing Portugal’s likely centre backs of Pepe and Bruno Alves (robust bucaneers the pair of them) looks like it might test the Italian’s liberal temperament.

Sepp Blatter will be watching events with anxiety. We can relax and pray for goals.

MATCH BETTING: DESKTOP | MOBILE

WORLD CUP 2014 ODDS: DESKTOP | MOBILE

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: Sit back and soak it up – how the Premier League’s attempt at Barça Mk II can hurt Martino’s vulnerable team

Posted on March 3, 2014 by SoccerCapper

Manchester City v Barcelona, Etihad Stadium, Tuesday 19.45

The north west of England is a place of beginnings and endings for FC Barcelona and some of their players. Pep Guardiola’s last, inglorious, European game as a player for the team he’d supported all his life and let to European Cup glory at Wembley in 1992 came at Anfield.

Gerrard

There’s this utterly superb picture of a young, exuberant Steven Gerrard (above) chasing over to Guardiola to roar triumphantly as the Catalan trooped, dejectedly off the pitch back in 2001. Out of the Uefa Cup, out of the club six weeks later.

Guardiola’s time as coach was ushered in by another ‘ending’ this time at Old Trafford when Paul Scholes (fan footage below) crashed that semi-final winning goal past Victor Valdés in United’s Champions League winning season of 2007/8.

That truly was that for Frank Rijkaard, Ronaldinho and Deco their reign as European Champions already having been rudely stripped away from them by Liverpool in 2007, just a few short months after victory over Arsenal in Paris hinted that Barcelona, with Ronaldinho the best player in the world, might be starting a golden era. Not the case.

And Andres Iniesta freely admits his brilliant volleyed goal for Spain against England at Old Trafford in 2007 was an exponential leap forward in confidence and robust self belief because, until then, La Roja viewed the hard-running, aggressive English as one of their most threatening and intimidating rivals.

Match betting: Can the ‘new Barca’ beat the ‘old Barca?

Yes, it could now be the end of an era

If Tuesday night’s game against Manchester City is a defeat, and one which is the gateway to elimination in three weeks, then it will be a categorical ‘end’ to the current golden era.

Not the end for Leo Messi, Pedro, Cesc, Busquets, Iniesta and Alba as Barcelona players but a punctuation point at the end of an era which has seen the bulk of this group reach 13 knockout finals (Champions League, Copa del Rey, European SuperCup or World Club Cup) in the last ten years (more than Manchester United and Real Madrid combined).

If this group were to follow their 7-0 humiliation by Bayern Munich last season with their first elimination at this stage since 2007 it will be time for the kind of ‘re-start’ which began in summer 2008 with Guardiola’s arrival, the sale of Ronaldinho and the promotion of a clutch of young bucks.

What do the Spanish champions require to do to avoid all that happening?

One of the biggest compliments to that era of Camp Nou dominance is that a great deal of what City (and Bayern) do is simply a re-branding of Barcelona’s 2008-2012 football but with younger, bigger and more athletic players than the Catalans currently have in their squad.

Barça reboot? Barça Mark II. Call it what you will.

The lads were unreal and the fans were class! Over the moon right now! Tottenham 1 – 5 @MCFC ! #MCFC pic.twitter.com/UOsNEphbCZ

— Vincent Kompany (@VincentKompany) January 29, 2014

Barca vulnerable from corners

It obviously means that Tata Martino’s team will be vulnerable from corners, free kicks and open play if Vincent Kompany (above), Yaya Touré, Álvaro Negredo, Fernandinho and their ilk are allowed to compete for headers on goal.

The Johan Cruyff diktat, which was copied by Guardiola when he became coach, was:

‘Do NOT give away corners or free kicks anywhere near our own penalty area’

Can this team become that disciplined again? Switch back on the good habits which have been switched off for a couple of seasons?

The fundamental cornerstone of the ‘great’ Barcelona eras was always to create numerical superiority in midfield. Via the full backs pushing forward, via the centre half wandering as far forward with the ball as he dared, using the ‘third-man’ move, via the wingers dropping back into midfield if necessary.

Father Time waits for no man

Now, because of a drop in the efficacy of Barcelona’s pressing high up the pitch, because Father Time and his debilitating effects wait for no man.

Often the shakiness which has become apparent in Barça’s defending (the goals against stats are clear in Europe but almost unchanged domestically from Guardiola’s time) has its root in the midfield either being over-run or not adequately chasing back when possession is lost.

Martino is going to try to ‘flood’ the midfield in Manchester. Often Barcelona’s shape will look like 3-5-2 – two central defenders and one full back with one full back pushed into a middle line already staffed by Busquets, Xavi (above for Spain), Iniesta and Cesc.

“Whover has the least possession is going to suffer,” was Martino’s ominous prediction.

City deserve to be favourites

City’s left hand side, probably Samir Nasri (above), will have fun. Xavi finds it hard to press and harrass as effectively as he once did and Dani Alves loves to go for a wander upfield. The return journey is often conducted via a guilty trot while others attempt to put out the fires.

City, it seems to me, deserve to be favourites (15/8) to win this leg of the tie particularly given that since losing 1-0 to Wisla Kraków (UCL third qualifying round second leg) back in 2008 Barça have played 15 further away knockout ties in the competition proper – only winning three.

The other results comprise seven draws and six defeats. But there are distinct plus-points for Barcelona.

Martino pledged, from day one, that his training and squad rotation would be aimed at having his players fighting fit for the business end of the season. That starts now.

Fancy Graham’s tips? Dive into the latest Manchester City v Barcelona odds here

My tips for this game

Fabregas has never been more prolific for goals and assists, Leo Messi (above) has 10 goals and seven assists in eleven games this year and, above all, Andres Iniesta is playing with livewire fizz and energy right now.

If Barcelona take your eye then perhaps Iniesta or Jordi Alba are succulent outside bets for a goal. Another would be to look at Javier Mascherano’s tendency to be caught the wrong side, to have to lunge in… a penalty for City isn’t a remote probability (10/3 with Paddy Power).

Overall, Europe is lucky that so many club and national sides now want to emulate the brand of football which the Blaugrana exhibited so exceptionally over the last six years.

Shame if it were to end now. But at least they face the Premier League’s attempt at Barça Mk II. Sit back and soak it up.

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: What Celtic must do to get a result against Barcelona (and my 12/5 tip)

Posted on October 1, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter previews the Champions League game between Celtic and Barcelona. Here’s what Celtic must do to get a result tonight…

There was once a bit of the Dr Bruce Banner about FC Barcelona. Ok, not the green skin and the tendency to overturn cars, but the ‘Don’t make me angry, you wouldn’t like me when I’m angry’ bit was true enough.

Over the last few years when teams had the temerity to catch Barça on a bad day and push them around, or to deny them the joy of skipping around the pitch with the ball by choking their space and thinking time then, sooner or later, there’d be a pay back.

Immediately within that game, next time they met, sometimes over and over again: ‘That’ll teach you.’

But it’s to Celtic’s great advantage that while that spirit is still central to the ‘Cogigo ergo sum’ – I play therefore I am – attitude of this team, the mind is willing but the physique is weak.

You don’t take points off players like Xavi, Iniesta, Valdés or Busquets in the manner Celtic did last season without it rankling.

Revenge? No, that’s not their guiding thought process. But, like big Jack Charlton used to have a little black book of accounts pending, for bruises and late tackles, so the Barça boys still remember where they need to address issues from a previous meeting – just to try to restore their football feng shui. Getting the three points is of supreme importance, but putting things back in order will be in their heads too.

Barca brutes no more

While Barcelona have been the dominant European team over the last seven years it’s natural that a great deal of focus has been on their technical excellence, their attacking flair, their playing system and also on the fact that two of three of these players, Ronaldinho in his day, Xavi, Iniesta and of course Messi, will rank amongst the greatest that any of us can expect to see in our lifetimes.

What sometimes gets pushed aside is the fact that they used to be a brute to play against. Physically very strong, ferocious in their pressing and constantly working at an incredible rate of knots.

That’s not so true any more. The gradually frittering away of players like Yaya Touré, Seydou Keita, Thierry Henry, Edmilson, Rafa Marquez, Samuel Eto’o and the injury damage age is doing to Carles Puyol means this is a more delicate Barça side. In body if not in mind.

TALL ORDER: Gerard Pique (seeing off the challenge of Conor Sammon at the Euros) is raring to go vs Celtic

Tata carries same issues as Tito

This is still an exceptional team. It is still very hungry, it still has a cobra-like ability to pounce on moments of inattention or error.

But even though the new coach, Tata Martino, is an extremely interesting football student, has clear and well articulated ideas and even though he’s showing a very firm hand in rotating the team with absolutely no fear of resting the biggest names, he carries some of the same problems into this match that Tito Vilanova did.

Gerard Piqué is on athletic, hungry form and didn’t play for the large part of the defeat here last year but, around him, Barcelona haven’t added any height to deal with the aerial problems they have at set pieces into the box and the diagonal ball in from open play.

Under Martino the Catalan defence is man-for-man rather than zonal and, perhaps, that will make a difference in due course. At Celtic Park they’ll be tested.

Celtic simply must score first

Another part of Barcelona’s repertoire which was like a pair of steely jaws clamped on your ankle but which is now showing rust is how they do (or in fact often don’t) close games off once they are leading. Saturday’s 2-0 win at Almeria being an interesting exception.

It’s still absolutely vital for Celtic get the first goal if they want a chance of repeating last year’s excellence. But there was once a time that if Barcelona scored first they almost never released the choke-hold in a game that mattered to them. Not quite so true any more.

The pressing has changed, too. It’s beginning to work under Martino but there is geographical alteration. Under Pep Guardiola, in the golden years, the pressure began on the edge of the opponents’ box. Martino’s idea is that the central maelstrom of pressure on the opponents should be about three-quarter of the way up the pitch with strikers and wing backs pressing vertically, like a pincer, and midfielder moving in horizontally.

Right now, notwithstanding Messi’s absence, Barcelona are sharper, firmer and better prepared for this test than they were 11 months ago. They shape up as single goal winners (12/5), I think.

But invulnerable? No, not that.

Celtic v Barcelona betting: Fancy Barca to win by one goal at 12/5? Crunch into the latest odds here >

Graham Hunter is the author of the award-winning book, Barca: The Making of the Greatest Team in the World. There’s a new book on Spain about to drop. Graham is a regular contributor to the Paddy Power Blog on football and an all-round good guy. Follow him on Twitter here

Dive into Hunter’s archives on the Paddy Power Blog here

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.

Graham Hunter: What Celtic must do to get a result against ‘weak’ Barcelona

Posted on October 1, 2013 by SoccerCapper

Spanish football expert Graham Hunter previews the Champions League game between Celtic and Barcelona. Here’s what Celtic must do to get a result tonight…

Immediately within that game, next time they met, sometimes over and over again: ‘That’ll teach you.’

You don’t take points off players like Xavi, Iniesta, Valdés or Busquets in the manner Celtic did last season without it rankling.

Barca brutes no more

What sometimes gets pushed aside is the fact that they used to be a brute to play against. Physically very strong, ferocious in their pressing and constantly working at an incredible rate of knots.

TALL ORDER: Gerard Pique (seeing off the challenge of Conor Sammon at the Euros) is raring to go vs Celtic

Tata carries same issues as Tito

This is still an exceptional team. It is still very hungry, it still has a cobra-like ability to pounce on moments of inattention or error.

Under Martino the Catalan defence is man-for-man rather than zonal and, perhaps, that will make a difference in due course. At Celtic Park they’ll be tested.

Celtic simply must score first

Right now, notwithstanding Messi’s absence, Barcelona are sharper, firmer and better prepared for this test than they were 11 months ago. They shape up as single goal winners, I think.

But invulnerable? No, not that.

Celtic v Barcelona betting: Fancy Barca to win by one goal at 12/5? Crunch into the latest odds here >

Dive into Hunter’s archives on the Paddy Power Blog here

Want £200 Free? Click here to visit Bet365 and claim your free money.