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So the joke goes: an anteater walks into a bar wearing an Atlético Madrid scarf and the barman says to him: Why the long odds?.
You can take 14/1 off Paddy Power for los Rojiblancos to defend their title and while it’s probably common sense to offer them as third favourites against the vastly reinforced Barcelona and Madrid – those odds for a defending champion is an unusual sight.
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Particularly after the club splurged it’s greatest ever outlay on a single transfer binge – touching €98m gross once the delayed operation for Ángel Correa (whose heart anomaly needs to be defined and corrected) is completed.
Moreover, this club, in recent years, must be in the top three of world football for spotting the right players, whether expensive, cheap or free, to be affordable, the right ‘fit’, winners and with a major sell-on value.
They have a fabulous track record over the last four or five years. Fabulous.
To put flesh on this summer’s bones, manager Diego Simeone has added exciting French winger/second striker Antoine ‘Greased Lightning’ Griezmann, Mario Mandzukic, Correa, Benfica keeper Jan Oblak, Mexican striker Raúl Jimenéz, back-up keeper Miguel Ángel Moya and flying wing-back Guillherme Siqueira.
Of the 14 departures the most significant are Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois (above), Filipe Luis, Diego Ribas and David Villa.
Simeone (below) justifiably enjoys the reputation of a man-manager who is able to squeeze every last drop of attitude and commitment out of his footballers – something which may be handy with Mandzukic.
As such it’s feasible that he can handle the impact of this hemorrhage / transfusion operation of players in and out more quickly and more successfully than most.
The age and quality of their recruits plus the block of important footballers who’ve been retained (Miranda, Godín, Gabi, Koke, Juanfran, Raúl Garcia for example) suggests that there might be a trophy in Atlético.
Also that they should be capable of doing some damage to the ‘big two’ in one-on-one situations. But the title? No.
To me the key is that Atlético won La Liga by a hairsbreadth last season.
Twelve single goal wins (18 across all competitions), clinching the title on the last day at the Camp Nou where just one more goal from Barcelona, in a weak season, would have given them the crown. Hairsbreadth.
Throughout the season they were constantly in debt to Costa for those single-goal victories – winners against Milan, Madrid, Levante and Athletic in Europe, La Liga and the Copa Del Rey are examples. Equally, Courtois saved them over and over and over again.
Good luck to the armada of new strikers and to goalkeeper Oblak.
But it’s just not feasible for them to reproduce what Simeone has lost in a season when there’s been the disruption of 23 moves either in or out. Last summer I tipped Simeone’s lot as likely title winners.
Trust me again when I say nothing better than a cup competition this time around.
So, who else outside Los Rojiblancos MIGHT do damage to Madrid and Barça?
Last season was a finger in the eye to the ‘disengage brain and open mouth’ pundits who know nothing about La Liga. ‘Not competitive, two horse blah, blah, yawn, halfwit comment…’ was too often the stereotypical comment.
Beyond Atlético winning the title, Madrid and Barcelona lost points home and away to Levante, Real Sociedad, Granada, Getafe, Elche, Villarreal, Sevilla and Celta Vigo while the clubs who took points off BOTH the big two were Athletic, Osasuna, Valencia and Valladolid.
So 13 clubs were able to trip the big two up. Competitive.
Sadly, I believe, things have changed. Most weeks I’ll go into more depth about the individual clubs who catch the eye in La Liga but suffice to say now: Osasuna and Valladolid have been relegated, Levante, Getafe, Real Sociedad, Athletic, Sevilla, Celta, Atlético have all lost either their best or second best player and/or their manager.
Elche and Granada might be around a similar level but won’t be putting their life savings on taking major scalps again while it’s arguable that Villarreal and Valencia might be more competitive this time around.
Madrid and Barcelona will inevitably slip up here and there but I’m convinced that, this season, it actually is a one v one battle to succeed 2014 champions Atlético.
You can follow Graham Hunter on Twitter @BumperGraham
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After contrasting starts to the season, Sunday sees possibly the biggest rivals in football meet as Barcelona take on Real Madrid at the Nou Camp (Match Betting – Barcelona 5/6, draw 11/4, Real Madrid 3/1).
The two sides have a long and bitter rivalry and even at this early stage of the season, victory for Barca could all but wrap-up the La Liga title. After a summer of uncertainty, the Blaugrana have started the campaign in sparkling style and are yet to be beaten at both home and abroad.
A number of questions have been asked about the team following the departure of the legendary Pep Guardiola but his assistant Tito Vilanova has stepped-up with aplomb and his side showed both their ability and unity by netting two late goals to beat Sevilla last Saturday. They followed this up with a win over Benfica on Tuesday but that result provided more questions than answers for Vilanova, as the returning Carles Puyol suffered an horrific elbow injury.
This means the Catalans are likely to rely on Javier Mascherano and Alex Song at the back and, while both have spent plenty of time in defence, they could hardly be described as naturals. The injury crisis ensures that Sergio Busquets’ (15/2 to score at anytime) performance becomes even more important as he will be the man charged with shielding the duo. Busquets is widely regarded as the best defensive midfielder in the world and his ability to break-up play and track runners will be massive on Sunday.
In contrast to their rivals, Real have had a difficult opening few months of the campaign and currently sit sixth in the table, eight points behind Barcelona. This means the visit to the Nou Camp is an almost must win game for Jose Mourinho’s men and they will go into the clash eying all three points.
Los Blancos were expected to kick-on from last season’s La Liga victory but have looked disjointed at times, with Mourinho trying a number of combinations in both defence and midfield in an attempt to find a solution. The Portuguese boss usually tries to suffocate Barca in these games and is likely to employ three defensive midfielders to counter their attacking threat.
This means Cristiano Ronaldo’s (11/10 to score at anytime) pace on the break will prove even more important and having effectively scored the goal that won the title last term against another makeshift Barcelona defence, he will fancy his chances of once again silencing the Nou Camp faithful.
Like all the games between these two sides, this has the potential for fireworks and with so much talent on display, it’s sure to be an intriguing tussle. However, with Barcelona’s current defensive issues, Madrid have the perfect man to take advantage in Ronaldo and his ability to find the net in big games could see his side through (Madrid 14/1 to win 2-1).
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The Europa League third qualifying round gets underway on Thursday and several of Europe’s sleeping giants will be searching for a stress-free passage to the play-off round, where a place in the group stages will be at stake.
Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool face Belarussian outfit FK Gomel, who set up the plum tie with the 2004/05 Champions League winners with a narrow win over FK Renova of Macedonia.
Attacking threats for Gomel include former BATE Borisov hitman Aleksandr Alumona and new signing Andrey Sherakow, who arrived from Minsk, though there is a very definite lack of big-match experience in the squad.
Unsurprisingly, Gomel are priced as 7/1 outsiders to take anything from their home leg against the Reds, with Rodgers’ men a near-certainty at 1/3 to take an advantage with them back to Anfield.
Elsewhere, another former Champions League winner, Inter Milan, will aim to move a step closer to qualification for the Europa League when they take on Hajduk Split.
The Croatian outfit’s finest moment in Europe came in the 1994/95 season, when they reached the quarter final of the Champions League, though recent years have been tinged with frustration, having finished as runner-up in the Prva Liga for the last four years.
They take on a team who topped their Champions League group last season only to be eliminated in the second round, and fail to produce the goods in Serie A, finishing a distant sixth and well out of the title race.
But Inter Milan’s hopes of staging a comeback in the upcoming season are high, and, at 4/11 to fit into place the first piece of the jigsaw and win this first leg clash, they are expected to have too much of Hajduk Split.
Meanwhile, La Liga side Athletic Bilbao should be far too strong for NK Slaven Belupo when the two sides meet for the first of two legs tomorrow evening. The Croats have a habit of starting games strongly in Europe, but will struggle in the Spanish heat.
Bilbao’s 1/10 price tells you all you need to know about this game, but a 10/1 price on a 5-0 win for the Spaniards represents extremely good value, as does a 6-0 scoreline, which is available at 16/1.
Further British interest at this stage of the competition is represented by Dundee United, who welcome Dynamo Moscow to Tannadice Park tomorrow evening, and who will rightly fancy their chances of defying their 10/3 price and taking a lead with them into the away leg.
Dynamo are available at 7/10 to escape with the win, but Peter Houston’s men will be feeling far from charitable, and a siege mentality from the hosts could force the Russians to settle for a draw, which is available at a rather generous 23/10.
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The Championship season reaches its climax on Saturday with two outstanding matters to be resolved and we look at how Southampton and Cardiff are set to be the ones smiling at full-time with regards to who claims the final automatic promotion place and the last play-off spot respectively.
Southampton v Coventry
All the action gets underway at 12.30 on Saturday lunch-time and all eyes will be on St Mary’s as Nigel Adkins‘ Saints look to finally book their place in the Premier League alongside champions Reading.
Southampton have had a couple of small screen horror shows in recent games with a televised 3-1 home defeat to Reading and a 2-1 reverse at Middlesbrough in front of the cameras last Saturday keeping their fans waiting to celebrate a second successive promotion and put an end to their seven-year top-flight exile.
However, a win against already-relegated Coventry City is required, while a draw could do unless third-placed West Ham, who are two points behind at kick-off, stick four past Hull City at Upton Park.
Only the pressure can get to the Saints’ players now because on paper this fixture is a ‘gimme’ in terms of the three points.
They currently top the ‘home’ table going into the match, are the Championship’s top scorers with 81 goals in 45 matches and have already beaten the Sky Blues twice at the Ricoh Arena in the league and FA Cup.
Adkins, who is set to replace hamstring injury victim Richard Chaplow with Guly Do Prado in his starting XI, will be confident of seeing his team record a ninth league double of the season and book a place in the Premier League.
Andy Thorn’s Coventry side are preparing for League One football next season – the first time the Sky Blues have been at the third tier of the English game since 1964.
They arrive on the south coast at the bottom of the ‘away’ table after recording just one away win all season and they are the lowest scorers in the division with 40 less than their opponents going into the encounter.
To make their mission even more difficult, defender Richard Keogh is suspended following his sending-off against Doncaster so 17-year-old Jordan Willis is poised for a first senior start.
The only statistic Coventry – and West Ham – fans can cling on to is that Southampton have not recorded a league double over the Sky Blues for 21 years.
However, regardless of Hammers’ boss Sam Allardyce’s attempt to point out the pressure is all on the Saints, we feel they should have more than enough to get past Coventry and once the first goal goes in the floodgates will open.
Incidentally we feel the Hammers (1/2 Home Win 90 Minutes) will keep their part of the bargain and defeat Nick Barmby’s Hull City but will have to go back to the Premier League via the play-offs.
Prediction: Southampton Home 90 Minutes @ 3/10
Value Bet: Southampton 3-0 Correct Score @ 14/1
Crystal Palace v Cardiff
The only other outstanding issue in the Championship is the race for the sixth and final play-off place with Cardiff in the driving seat.
The Bluebirds missed the chance to seal their place last weekend after being held to a 1-1 draw by Leeds, while seventh-placed Middlesbrough valiantly fought back from a first-minute goal down to see off promotion-chasing Southampton at the Riverside.
The mission for Malky Mackay’s men is simple – a draw or win at Selhurst Park will be enough to seal a third successive play-off campaign as Tony Mowbray’s Boro are two points behind with a vastly inferior goal difference.
The current form is positive for the Bluebirds as they go to Selhurst Park unbeaten in nine matches and have only lost once against a team in the bottom nine all season.
Mackay is boosted by the news midfielder Don Cowie has recovered from a calf strain, while Rudy Gestede could also return, but winger Craig Conway is still out with ankle ligament damage.
Palace go into the game looking for a first win in nine to round off a season which will see them finish in their highest position in three seasons.
The Eagles did lose to Cardiff in the Carling Cup semi-finals earlier this year and will be looking for revenge, while boss Dougie Freedman will also remind his players that they did win the first leg 1-0 on home soil.
However, goalkeeper Julian Speroni has joined an already lengthy injury list after he dislocated a finger in the game against Reading last Saturday, while centre-back Paul McShane is absent with a hamstring injury.
Palace have not won on the final day in the past three years and have only defeated one of the top seven clubs this term.
Add to that the fact that the two sides, along with Middlesbrough, have drawn the most matches in the Championship this term and it all points to a stalemate which would be good enough to extend the Welsh outfit’s season.
Boro travel to face Watford at the same time and we feel that they should have enough to get the three points required (Boro 11/8 Away Win 90 Minutes), but will suffer the heartbreak of missing out on the play-offs courtesy of goal difference.
Prediction: Draw 90 Minutes @ 12/5
Value Bet: Cardiff/ Draw HT/FT @ 16/1
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After a superb weekend of football, the Championship action continues on Easter Monday with a number of matches that could have a huge bearing on the outcome of the season at both ends of the table, with promotion-chasers West Ham (10/1 Championship outright) and Birmingham meeting at Upton Park, while at the other end Bristol City host Coventry.
In perhaps the biggest game of the day, West Ham face Blues with both sides knowing that a victory will go a long way to sealing their position in the play-off places (West Ham 6/5, draw 12/5, Birmingham 11/5).
Despite a lightning quick start to the season, the Hammers have struggled of late, especially at home, where they haven’t won since beating Millwall at the beginning of February.
If they are to break their duck on Monday they will need their big players to stand up and be counted and Sam Allardyce will be looking for a big performance from skipper Kevin Nolan. The experienced midfielder scored the opener in Friday’s win at Barnsley and he will once again be hoping to inspire his side to victory.
Birmingham are currently on a run of four games without defeat and, after an inconsistent beginning to the campaign, Chris Hughton’s men appear to be finding their form at just the right time.
The Blues have a number of standout players but striker Nikola Zigic (15/8 to score at anytime) is often the man who digs them out of trouble.
The Serbian had a difficult first season in England but has found his feet this year and looks like one of the division’s best strikers. It’s also worth noting that the Hammers have struggled to deal with his height in previous matches and he will certainly be looking to once again torment the West Ham rearguard.
With West Ham’s current home troubles, they could be nervous ahead of the match and Birmingham’s good form suggests that they could just sneak it, but it’s sure to be tight.
Perhaps the other major game of the day is the clash between 21st place Bristol City and Coventry who sit a single spot below them (Bristol City 5/4, draw 9/4, Coventry 9/4).
The Robins will be confident going into the game as they’re unbeaten in three, including Saturday’s victory at Nottingham Forest.
Key to their chances of victory will be journeyman striker Jon Stead (3/2 to score at anytime) who finally appears to have found a home at Ashton Gate after years of moving around. The 29-year-old may not always get on the scoresheet but his work for the side is invaluable so look out for him to provide assists to the likes of Chris Wood and Brett Pitman.
The Sky Blues have struggled on and off the pitch this season and manager Andy Thorn has certainly had his hands tied due to the financial constraints of the club.
However, they appear to have found some form recently and are unbeaten in their last seven matches and know victory on Monday will go a long way to them avoiding relegation.
Their one to watch looks as if it could be veteran forward Clive Platt who, like the aforementioned Stead, may not get the headlines but often performs. The 34-year-old hasn’t scored since the start of February and will be desperate to break his duck in Bristol.
Both teams will be confident going into the game but home advantage could be crucial and Derek McInnes side should just nick it.
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It’s a potentially-pivotal day at the top of the Premier League on Sunday with both Manchester City and Manchester United in action. Roberto Mancini has already said that if his side lose they can forget winning the title but how will things pan out? Here we look at the possibilities on what’s sure to be a nerve-wracking day (totesport – Premier League).
Manchester United v QPR (1.30pm)
Pundits, fans and pretty much the whole football world will view this one as a home banker (United 2/11, QPR 16/1, draw 6/1 – 90 minutes) and who are we to argue?
United, despite from being far from their best against Fulham and Blackburn in their last two games, have managed to grind out results in typically-efficient style and the chance of a slip-up here looks remote.
Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young weighed in with the vital late goals at Ewood Park on Monday and the former’s performances of late has led to Sir Alex Ferguson eschewing plenty of praise on the former Wigan man, who could just be the player that proves to be the difference in the run-in for the Red Devils (8/1 First Goalscorer).
Chasing their 20th title, Ferguson’s men have moved menacingly five points clear of City when it matters most and another three here will leave them eight points ahead of their local rivals before they go to Arsenal, so a comfortable home win it is then.
Former United hero, but City boss, Mark Hughes, may have other ideas as his side still search for victories to move them clear of the relegation zone.
The R’s home form has picked up notably since the Welshman took over and eye-catching victories at Loftus Road over Liverpool and Arsenal last week have boosted their survival chances considerably but they still sit level on points with Blackburn and Wigan, who are 18th and 19th respectively, only just ahead on goal difference.
Sadly for Rangers, they travel to probably the worst ground they could possibly choose looking for a result so a defeat, and possibly an unwelcome return to the bottom three, beckons.
Arsenal v Manchester City (4pm)
It’s a huge game at the Emirates that follows – one City dare must not lose if they are to stand a chance of catching United.
Mancini may have unwittingly heaped more pressure on his players by declaring it a must-win game but they can go to north London and get the required result – provided the real City show up and not the imposters of the last few weeks.
The disappointing 1-1 draw at Stoke was followed up by an unlikely 3-3 draw at home to Sunderland last weekend, and that only thanks to two late goals in what was overall an extremely lacklustre display from a side going for the title.
Mario Balotelli likes his headlines, but also his goals, and the Italian, who Mancini joked this week drives him so mad at times that if he were still playing he would have to “punch him”, can again be the man for the big occasion on Sunday.
His 13 league goals have helped keep City’s title bid afloat and he is well worth backing at 7/4 to score anytime once again.
Arsenal still have plenty to play for themselves, of course, and, sitting in third, a well-placed to claim a top-four finish despite last weekend’s setback at QPR.
Chelsea and Newcastle are breathing down their necks but, aside from the blip at Loftus Road, the Gunners have been very impressive of late and City will be up against a confident side determined to get back to winning ways.
However, we sense this means slightly more to City and fancy them to get the required result to keep their manager happy and maintain their faltering title bid – if only for now.
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The current Premier League season has been possibly one of the most exciting in recent history with Manchester City (7/4 Premier League outright) finally mounting a sustained challenge, while local rivals Manchester United have once again been the model of consistency.
We’ve also seen Spurs play a starring role in the campaign, but they’ve recently fallen away and it now looks as if it will be a two-horse race for the title.
The Red Devils are currently four points clear of their neighbours but have played a game more and with the teams still to meet at the Etihad, there is plenty to play for.
Big things were expected of Roberto Mancini’s side this season, but it appears that their lack of experience of winning titles is starting to bite them after a few disappointing results at both home and aboard.
The Citizens lost last time out in the league at Swansea, with a number of pundits pointing to the lack of leadership in the side in the absence of talismanic skipper Vincent Kompany.
However, they could be handed a major this week as its believed that former captain Carlos Tevez is set to return to the squad for Wednesday’s crucial home match against a resurgent Chelsea (City 4/5, draw 12/5, Chelsea 11/4).
The Argentine has been out of action since his much published row with manager Mancini but after missing out on a move in January, he has apologised for his behaviour and is now nearing full fitness.
Tevez has previously won the title with when he was at Old Trafford and his ability and experience could yet play a massive role in the destination of the Premier League trophy.
Everyone knows that Tevez likes to do things in his own unique style, so don’t be surprised if he pops up with a late winner on Wednesday (City 7/1 to win 2-1)
On the other hand United (4/9 Premier League outright) are absolutely flying and despite crashing out of the Europa League on Thursday, look to be full of confidence after their 5-0 win at Wolves on Sunday.
As already mentioned, they more than have the experience of winning titles and despite a number of disappointing results this season, seem to be coming into their own at just the right time.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s side appear to have the easiest run-in, playing a number of the teams vying to avoid relegation and apart from possibly the derby with City on 30th April, will be expecting to win all of their remaining fixtures.
The Red Devils began this season with a fresh outlook after buying a number of young players in the summer. However, it’s been the old heads who have been impressing recently and they will be looking to the experience of the likes Paul Scholes to see them through to their second successive league win.
Whatever happens, it’s sure to be a thrilling end to the season, but with their brilliant history in the competition, United should just edge it.
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A
head of a potentially pivotal midweek in Scotland, the SPL title race remains very much alive after Celtic kept on Old Firm rivals Rangers’ coat-tails with an important 2-0 victory at Kilmarnock on Sunday (Celtic 2/1 to win the SPL title).
Goals from skipper Scott Brown and Kris Commons were enough to seal the victory for the Bhoys at Rugby Park – a result which closed the gap on Rangers to a solitary point.
The Gers themselves had put in a similarly impressive performance on Saturday, beating third-place Hearts 4-0 at Ibrox, to place them firmly in the driving seat with only two games to go in a season which has seen the top spot in the league switch from club to club on numerous occasions (Rangers now 4/11 to win the title).
Both sides face tough fixtures in the coming week, however, and have both already lost to the respective teams they play earlier in the campaign. Rangers host to Dundee United at Ibrox on Tuesday night – a match they lost 3-2 earlier in the season thanks to two goals from Scotland international striker David Goodwillie.
The Gers have struggled at times this season due to their relatively light squad but are now back to full strength after the return of the likes of Majid Bougherra and Lee McCulloch after injury lay-offs (Rangers 2/9 to beat Dundee United).
Celtic, meanwhile, travel to Tynecastle to face Hearts on Wednesday who themselves will be looking to bounce back after their disappointing result against the champions over the weekend (Celtic 4/9 to claim the victory).
Hearts beat Celtic 2-1 in the same fixture earlier this season in a match that was marred by controversy and saw Neil Lennon receive a touchline ban after a scuffle between both players and officials.
Hearts are always a difficult proposition, especially at home, and with the likes of Rudi Skacel and young winger David Templeton in attack, they have the ability to unlock any side.
Celtic will, of course, be doing all they can to secure the victory as they aim to take the title race to the last day of the season and will be looking to inspirational captain Scott Brown to lead them to victory. Top-scorer Gary Hooper could also be a key man and seems to have a habit of scoring important goals at crucial times for Lennon’s side.
The midweek fixtures look set to be the ones to decide the title race as both look to have relatively easy matches on the final day of the season – Celtic host Motherwell while Rangers, in what will be Walter Smith’s last game in charge before Ally McCoist takes over, travel to Kilmarnock.
If both sides win their midweek games, which is likely, it will undoubtedly mean an exciting last-day climax to what has certainly been a thrilling battle between the old foes at the top once again.
But Rangers, with the point advantage, have the upper hand and we expect them to end the season on top with two wins out of their final two games while Celtic, who should also take a maximum six points from the available six, look set for heartache and appear destined to miss out by just the single point when the season draws to a close in a weeks’ time.
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Glasgow giants Celtic are now having to play catch up in the Scottish Premier League and will have to pick up all three points against Kilmarnock on Sunday to stand any real chance of beating Old Firm rivals Rangers to the title (Kilmarnock 9/1, draw 21/5, Celtic 3/10).
The Hoops suffered a huge blow to their hopes of lifting the SPL trophy in the week when they went down 3-2 to Inverness Caledonian Thistle.
Caley have been a bogie team for Celtic in recent seasons but this most recent upset could cost manager Neil Lennon and his players the title.
The defeat was not the only bad news for Lennon, as he will now have to do without Beram Kayal for the rest of the season after the talented midfielder fractured his wrist in the second half at the Caledonian Stadium.
Kayal has been an outstanding addition to the Celtic squad this season and has been praised for his performances by Lennon this term.
The Bhoys have further absentees for their trip to Kilmarnock on Sunday, as strikers Georgios Samaras and Anthony Stokes are both suspended.
Their absence will certainly be a loss for Celtic up front and they will have to rely on the likes of Kris Commons and Gary Hooper (5/2 to score the first goal) for their goalscoring options.
At the back there are more injury concerns, with Glenn Loovens out with a strain whilst Charlie Mulgrew and Mark Wilson are both doubtful for the clash at Rugby Park.
Midfielder Joe Ledley remains out of action after he picked up a hamstring injury in the Old Firm clash against Rangers which ended 0-0 at Ibrox.
Samaras had a crucial late penalty saved by Rangers keeper Alan McGregor which could be a huge turning point in the SPL title race.
Celtic cannot think of what might have been when they face Kilmarnock, who have some injury woes of their own.
Jamie Hamill is out with a hamstring problem whilst Frazer Wright and Ryan O’Leary remain out of action.
The home side will be without James Fowler who is suspended for the clash against the Old Firm giants.
Kilmarnock have not picked up a win in their last five games but did battle out a hard fought 2-2 draw with Hearts in their last outing.
The Ayrshire club remain in fifth spot in the SPL table and will be pleased with their season so far.
With Celtic suffering a host of injuries and suspensions, it will be a tough ask to go to Rugby Park and pick up three points.
However, with the likes of Hooper and Commons still available the Hoops should still secure the win and keep the SPL title race alive.
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