Espanyol v Atlético Saturday 3pm
This looks like the shape of things to come – short and long term.
Mario Mandzukic, big old lump of ‘mala leche’ [meanness], may be Atleti’s top scorer this season with 20 all comps but to manage he’s also about as much fun as stubbing your toe.
Pep Guardiola couldn’t get him out of Bayern sharply enough and now the buzz from Atleti’s training ground is that Cholo Simeone doesn’t like the cut of the Croat’s jib.
Remember that fad for ‘who would win in a fight, a tiger or a lion?’ ~ Well let’s go all hypothetical here too.
It’s Friday night, drinks have been consumed, it’s a dark alley and an ill-judged remark has been passed. Who’d win, Mario or El Cholo?
Answers on a postcard to Power tower but if those answers don’t say ‘Duh! El Cholo!’ then they’ll be put in the recycling bin.
Ok, back in character.
Atleti have been eight stone weaklings away from home in 2015 – something you might want to factor in here.
Since January they’ve played Barcelona, Barcelona [Copa], Eibar Celta, Bayer Leverkusen and Sevilla. Six away matches, three competitions, one win. The results in sequence have been 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Four defeats, one draw, one win and four goals scored in 540 minutes.
Not great.
So dopy old Mario comes on last week in the pub-brawl masquerading as a football match, 1-1 at home to Valencia, gets booked and is suspended. [Siqueira too] Likely that means he’ll not start v Leverkusen in midweek. Massive game that. And if he’s not sold in the summer I’d be a little surprised. Roger Moore 007 eyebrow raised-level of surprise.
So Antoine Griezmann, back him any time, returns after his own suspension and the question is whether it’ll be as sole striker or with Torres at no9 and Griezmann supporting him. This looks the most likely XI – Moyá, Juanfran, Miranda, Godín, Gámez, Raúl García, Gabi, Tiago, Koke, Griezmann, Torres. 
NB Torres has four in eight v Espanyol, but only one win in those matches.
What of Espanyol? Their best player, Sergio Garcia, was in court on Friday facing questions about whether he has been associated with fixing matches. They went out of the Cup, limply, at home to Athletic Bilbao and they have lost nine of sixteen matches in 2015.
Depite their last five home games v Atleti producing three wins a draw and a defeat they are under threat here. Were it not for Atleti’s misfiring away from home you’d say this was a banker win for the champions. Thus a draw is totally feasible. But fortune favours the brave – there’s a risk but why not Atleti to win, Griezmann and Torres to score?
- Hunter’s Choice: Atletico Madrid to win and Fernando Torres to score at 7/2
Eibar v Barcelona Saturday 5pm
Other than Barça fans and supporters of the teams in the relegation battle you’d guess that the rest of the world is dreaming of the mother, father, next-door neighbour and second cousin’s girlfriend of all shocks here. Eibar is a pocket-sized community – 27,000 inhabitants, a stadium that holds just over 5000. They are in the top division for the first time ever and needed to pass the hat round to have the necessary finances to take up their place in La Primera last summer.
Having thrilled with their performances in the first half of the season, easily the top performing Basque club pre-Christmas, defeat could put them in the bottom three this weekend. They are eight without a win, seven of which are consecutive defeats. Little wonder their coach, Gaizka Garitano, says:
“We are playing for more than Barcelona. “Another league here or there won’t change their history. “While not only is this a match our fans will still be talking about in ten years time, we are playing for the future of the club. “This isn’t a game to have fun in, nor one to plan which jersey you’re going to try and swap. “We need to compete and to ensure that the best team in the world doesn’t get to do what it is capable of doing – scoring five goals in five minutes.”
The difficulty is that while as defender Saúl Berjón says, “nobody has turned us over yet” – they can neither score freely nor keep a clean sheet. Messi, alone, has scored more Liga goals this season than the entire Eibar squad. 
Eibar’s Ipurua pitch used to be a refugee from 1974, muddy, rutted and not for artistes. They re-laid it and, it seems to me, football-playing teams now quite enjoy an afternoon at Eibar.
An advantage lost.
Talking of which, there’s a lot of speculation that the sale of Raúl Albentosa to Derby marks Eibar’s decline. Not so, their record of two goals in their last seven league matches holds the key.
Barça? Well if there were ideal conditions for a shock mebbe they are on show here. Both full backs, Alves and Alba, are out suspended. Busquets is out injured. His natural replacement, Javi Mascherano, is one booking away from missing next weekend’s Clásico. So is Mathieu. Barça have also had two and a half days off this week, which Neymar used to go to Brazil for his sister’s birthday, and the last time they had that much free time they lost at home to Málaga. 
But they’ve clawed their way back to the top of the table and have too much to lose for this to be a game that slips away.
Luis Suárez is made for a game like this, and he’s hit eight in his last seven matches. Messi is Messi. I know it’s against the odds but the adventurous might want to look at Piqué to add yet another to his already record goal-scoring season.
Eibar give away headed chances [a ginormous amount of them in their last home game] the Catalan loves a goal and the Basque’s also concede lots of free kicks and corners.
Might be feisty, not without threat for Barça but 1-3.
- Hunter’s Choice: Barcelona to win 3-1 at 10/1
Sevilla v Elche Sunday 6pm
The Europa League holders have played 12 games [1080 minutes] more than Elche this season, 42:30, the latest of which was the remarkable 3-1 win at Villarreal on Thursday night. That means that in their last seven matches they’ve won five, drawn won and scored three+ goals on five occasions.
Five star stuff.
Add in the fact that it was a year yesterday that Sevilla last lost at home in any competition and the size of Elche’s task is clearer. 
As a handy guide – of the 16 goals Sevilla have scored in those last seven games Vitolo has 5, Gameiro 3, Bacca 2 and there have been a smattering of own goals and penalties for both sides. Bacca was rested on Thursday and thus should start, Iborra who also got two in the last seven and two against Elche the last time this fixture was played, is suspended. Vitolo took a knock on his knee at Villarreal, couldn’t train Friday and is a doubt. Elche, for their part, are rather more troubled.
The league is investigating €2.5m missing from the club coffers around about the time that they needed a result against Málaga in order to avoid relegation. Two of their ‘ultra’ supporters were jailed for violent behaviour this week. Aarón Ñíguez is carrying a knock, centre half Sergio Pelegrín is definitely out and Adrián González is suspended.
Back Bacca, back Mbia, watch out for a post-Europe slump, and if you fancy Elche to shock back Jonathas because he’s their motor for goals and assist. But even if Sevilla need to come from behind, they should have sufficient to take three points here. 2-1
- Hunter’s Choice: Sevilla to win 2-1 at 7/1
Real Madrid v Levante Sunday 8pm
Carlo Ancelotti is one laid-back dude. So laid-back that he’s had to defend himself recently: “I won three Champions League’s with this ‘easy-going’ coaching style” he drawled the other day.
And with that nature, one of his sayings is: “Even after the worst defeat, the sun will still rise the next morning”
So, given the appalling week Madrid have had, this needs to be Dawn and the darkest hour needs to have been the 4-3 home defeat to Schalke. Either that or President Florentino trying to put out the fire with gasoline by not only giving the dreaded vote of confidence but then refusing to guarantee that it applied beyond May.
Take the injuries into account, take loss of form into account, take accumulated mental and physical tiredness into account – fine. But, right now, Madrid’s major problem is that their collective confidence is fractured. 
The strikers don’t believe the defence, particularly Iker, will keep the ball out and the defence don’t believe the strikers are working hard enough. There’s more finger-pointing than at a proctologists’ training course.
The midfield? They are like Scotty in the original Starship Enterprise – beetling about looking busy and shouting ‘We cannae take any more Cap’n’ A statistical representation of that fact is that Madrid ran TEN kilometres less than Schalke in that defeat. Horrifying. So – how to call this one? First off it’s likely that Luka Modric will start. Vital to have him back, but impossible for him to hit maximum performance, or max-stamina, immediately after four months out. Not only is Kroos knackered, he and Isco are each one booking away from missing the match at the Camp Nou next Sunday. Hard to see them both starting.
Casillas had an absolute stinker against Schalke and Keylor playing against his old club can’t be ruled out. But the emphasis lies on whether Ronaldo’s form is returning, two goals in midweek, or it’s time to drop either Benzema or Bale so that Jesé [worth an anytime bet] can start. Ronaldo’s the good bet [NINE in his last six against Levante] but Ramos [anytime] should also return and, boy, he loves a goal to save the team when they are in shtuck.
Levante, it has to be noted, have only ever won once at the Bernabéu, tend to concede barrowloads and have the worst goals-against record in the division.
Madrid may feel they only need to stop David Barral [anytime] – since he signed for the club he’s scored twelve goals and that’s been good enough for eleven victories.
Given that you won’t win money from Paddy on whether Madrid play either convincingly or attractively this weekend, only the result, back them to produce the goals to win by a couple.
- Hunter’s Choice: Real Madrid to win by exactly two goals at 7/2
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