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Who faces the basement battle?

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The fight to stay in the Premier League is often more nail-biting than the battle for the title and this season looks likely to be another tight tussle for survival. We take a look at the main contenders looking to avoid the dreaded drop from the top flight……..

The three promoted teams will always be mentioned among the favourites from relegation and the 2011-12 Premier League campaign will be no different, with QPR, Norwich and Swansea expected to struggle.

Swansea (8/15 to be relegated) are the team most people would expect to face an instant return to the Championship, following their play-off success. It will undoubtedly be tough for the Swans and, despite the capture of Danny Graham and their successful attempts to keep Neil Taylor, they look short of goals and too weak at the back to have an impact.

Norwich (11/4 to finish bottom) have at least been active in the transfer market, with the decent captures of James Vaughan, Steve Morison and Bradley Johnson. But Paul Lambert is relying on a lot of untried players at the top level and that is a big gamble which is unlikely to pay off.

QPR have been quiet in the transfer market to date, with just the two confirmed captures. If the R’s (4/9 to stay up) can keep Jay Bothroyd and Kieran Dyer fit then they can give themselves a chance, but defensive reinforcements will also be needed before the end of August.

Of the current crop of established teams, Blackburn (7/2 to be relegated) look to be in the most danger with a lack of transfer activity piling more pressure on rookie boss Steve Kean. Only a last day win at Wolves kept Rovers up last season and unless they find more firepower and fill the void left by Phil Jones’ departure, they will struggle again.

Wolves (9/1 to finish bottom) will be seen by many as relegation candidates, but Mick McCarthy has been shrewd with the captures he has made so far and they may be looking more towards mid-table than the bottom three this term. Roger Johnson is the type of centre-half they needed last season and he will sure up their flimsy back four.

At lot will depend on who Wigan (2/5 to stay up) keep this summer as to how well they will do this season, but Roberto Martinez had them playing good, effective football towards the end of last term and, although they are likely to face another relegation scrap, can survive again.

Under Roy Hodgson, West Brom (7/2 to be relegated) look to be heading in the right direction although the pressure will be on the Baggies boss to build on his current squad. He’s lost keeper Scott Carson and his signings, so far, this summer have been nothing to write home about.

Bolton (11/2 to be relegated) need some squad strengthening, especially with the threat of Gary Cahill leaving, but should have enough about them to be well clear of the relegation zone. While Fulham (1/20 to stay up), under the leadership of Martin Jol, have enough quality in their ranks not to be too concerned about the threat of relegation.

One side who could be dragged into the dogfight are Newcastle (6/1 to be relegated). They are yet to sign the big name the Toon fans expect following the recent high-profile departures of Andy Carroll and Kevin Nolan. Alan Pardew admits he needs at least a couple more players during the current window, in particular a 20-plus goal striker, and there is still the prospect of summer exits for the likes of Jose Enrique and Joey Barton.

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Paraguay poised for Brazil shock

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We now know two of the four teams who will contest the semi-finals of the Copa America, after Uruguay and Peru upset the odds in Saturday’s quarter-finals. Paraguay and Venezuela will be looking to do something similar when they take on Brazil and Chile respectively.

The Brazilians have been poor thus far and we feel there is a case to have a serious look at the Paraguayans ending any hopes the Samba Boys had of a third successive South American title.

Brazil v Paraguay (8pm)

Those who have seen much of the Copa America might have confused Brazil with Torquay United – the boys in yellow have been that bad, up until their 4-2 victory over Ecuador in the group stages. Coach Mano Menezes has so far failed to get anything like the best out of Brazil thus far in this tournament and they now face a team who came within minutes of beating the Selecao in the group stages. A late Fred equaliser saved the 7/4 favourites from an embarrassing defeat against a Paraguay team underrated by many.

Coach Gerado Martino has been in charge of Paraguay since 2006 and steered the South American nation to a quarter-final berth in the World Cup 12 months ago, eventually going out to Spain. While not the most attractive side left in the tournament, they are a tough nut to crack and have a physical side to them that many nations in the Copa America can’t call upon. They don’t score many and might have sneaked through the group stages but they are capable of an upset, as shown in 2004 when they beat Brazil in their last Copa meeting with the Samba Boys.

Brazil might have a list of star players as long as the Amazon River, but they look more like a collection of individuals than a team, unlike Paraguay. If La Albirroja can keep the likes of Neymar, Pato and Robinho quiet (easier said than done) there is no reason why they can’t upset the odds. Paraguay are 9/2 to win in 90 minutes but that is probably best left alone, with draw HT and draw FT at 21/5 the most likely outcome if Paraguay are to go through via extra time and maybe penalties.

Chile v Venezuela (11:15pm)

Much like Paraguay, Chile are another nation badly under rated and one who can’t be overlooked to go on and win the whole thing, based on how they have played so far. Arguably they looked the best team in the competition when navigating the group stages, beating Peru and Mexico, while drawing with Uruguay.

As demonstrated at the World Cup they have an attacking line to be feared, lead by Alexis Sanchez, and should have too much for Venezuela, who have a dreadful record against the Chileans. Venezuela have only ever beaten Chile once in 21 matches and have never reached the semi-finals of the Copa America. While we could have three upsets in the quarter-finalsm this is the one that should play out like everyone is expecting.

Chile are 8/13 to win inside 90 minutes, while you’d do well to consider Humberto Suazo at 6/5, Sanchez at 11/8 and Matias Fernandez at 7/4 to score at anytime for La Roja.

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Reds running to stand still

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Sunderland have been the busiest club in the transfer market so far this summer while Premier League champions Manchester United have not been shy to splash the cash either, but it is Liverpool’s dealing which are arguably providing the biggest talking points.

The Black Cats were beset by horrendous injury problems as the 2010/11 season wore on and it was only a late rally which saw them ease any outside chance of relegation to finish in a respectable mid-table position.

Stadium of Light chief Steve Bruce also lost star striker Darren Bent to Aston Villa in January – possibly the worst possible time – but he has responded by landing new players including the likes of Wes Brown, John O’Shea, Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson, among others.

Bruce maybe just needs a new striker and his work is done until the mid-season window, but his side is never going to overcome odds of 1000/1 to lift the Premier League trophy.

The fight for the title will be a five-horse race with the traditional big four of Manchester United (7/4), Chelsea (9/4), Arsenal (7/1) and Liverpool (10/1) joined by filth-rich Manchester City (4/1) in the shake-up.

The London pair have so far failed to add to their ranks – Gervinho’s switch to the Emirates from Lille is yet to be rubber-stamped – while City have been fairly low key by landing defenders Gael Clichy and Stefan Savic.

The Citizens are probably more pre-occupied with getting the best price for want-away captain Carlos Tevez although his touted replacement, Atletico Madrid’s Sergio Aguero, will not come cheap.

United and Liverpool, in contrast, have been pretty active so far, with the Reds of Merseyside continuing this summer where they left off in January following the big moves for Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll.

Many onlookers felt boss Kenny Dalglish paid well over the odds for Carroll, who at the time was not fully fit, and the same eyebrows were raised when the Scot raided Sunderland for Jordan Henderson, who reportedly cost in excess of £15m, and then added £20m-rated Stewart Downing to the squad from Aston Villa.

United have also thrown around bags of cash this summer on winger Ashley Young, defender Phil Jones and keeper David De Gea, with the latter two unproven at the highest level, like Carroll and Henderson.

However, the difference is that Liverpool are adding to their options from a position of weakness – they are on to their second manager since Rafa Benitez left just over 12 months while the ownership has also changed in the last year.

It remains to be seen whether or not their policy of recruiting players who promise much but have much to prove is successful.

But the fact is that United are arguably the most stable of the Premier League title challengers, have won the title four times out of the last five years and have appeared in three of the last four Champions League finals.

So Sir Alex Ferguson can afford to stir the pot, move players on and see who sinks and who swims.

And that underlines the fact that while Liverpool are making a lot of the running in the summer transfer market, they are ultimately running to stand still because not every move works out.

Just ask Alberto Aquilani.

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USA on the edge of glory

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The USA are bidding to win a third World Cup on Sunday when they take on Japan in the Women’s World Cup final in Frankfurt (Japan 12/5 draw 11/5 USA 20/21 after 90 minutes).

The US Women’s football team is historically strong and first won the competition in 1991 when they beat Norway 2-1 in the final in China before lifting the trophy as hosts with a win on penalties, this time against China in 1999.

They had to be content with third place finishes in 2003 and 2007 though before this year’s tournament in Germany.

The current side, coached by former Sweden international Pia Sundhage, qualified second in Group C behind Sweden before knocking out Brazil and England’s conquerors France to reach the showpiece event, safe in the knowledge they have never lost a World Cup final (5/1 to win 1-0).

USA forward Abby Wambach believes the entire squad deserves credit for reaching the final, saying “there are no substitutes” in this team.

Wambach scored the second goal in her sides’ 3-1 over France in the semi-final on Wednesday but the game was hugely influenced by the impact of two substitutes, Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan, the latter of whom scored the decisive third goal in Monchengladbach.

“There are no first-teamers and substitutes in this team,” said 31-year-old Wambach.

“There are no differences. Look at Alex Morgan, who came off the bench and scored her first World Cup goal. Mark my words. That’s the first of many Alex is going to score in the World Cup.

“Megan has a lot of quality and technique and a tremendous amount of confidence in herself. That’s her big asset. She didn’t get down about being made a substitute because she knew she had a lot to contribute in that role.”

Japan are seen very much as an up-and-coming-team in the Women’s game. They finished fourth in the 2008 Olympics, rose into the top five earlier this year and now look to go higher after a fairy tale run to their first World Cup final (Japan 10/1 to win 2-1).

They also qualified for the knock-out stages in second, this time behind England in Group B. But then dramatically beat Sweden, before most notably overcame footballing powerhouse Germany, who were not only hosts and holders but unbeaten in 16 World Cup matches stretching back to 1999.

Japan midfielder Nahomi Kawasumi hopes their appearance in Sunday’s final can bring some much needed publicity to the women’s game back home, where it struggles to compete with men’s football and baseball for media attention.

“Normally we don’t have a lot of media coverage for women’s football in Japan, but when we have good results such as here in Germany or at the Olympics; people get to know about women’s football. It is an important opportunity to promote the team and the game.

“The results at this tournament have given us a lot of confidence. We have momentum and always try to challenge teams, and now we want to try and beat the US.”

Verdict: USA win
Value bet : Draw/USA women HT/FT 18/5

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Copa quarters shake-up

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The quarter-finalists are now all in place in the Copa America and finally, after a slow start, the tournament should come alive with some eagerly-awaited games to come this weekend. But who is going to go all the way in 2011?

Argentina

After a disappointing start to the tournament, when the hosts were jeered by their own fans in dull draws against Bolivia and Colombia, Argentina came to life in their final group game, albeit against a weak Costa Rica outfit.

Nevertheless the 3-0 victory, inspired by Barcelona star Lionel Messi and Atletico Madrid striker Sergio Aguero, has given the locals hope that they can fulfil their pre-tournament favourites’ tag and go on to lift the trophy.

They come up against a talented Uruguay outfit in the last eight (Argentina 8/15, Uruguay 5/1, the draw 13/5 – match prices) so progress is by no means guaranteed but any side with Messi, Aguero, Carlos Tevez, Angel Di Maria, Gabriel Milito and Gonzalo Higuain in it should be feared and, as long as they now click into gear, the competition is still theirs to lose.

Uruguay

The quarter-final showdown against the hosts is Uruguay’s ‘punishment’ for also beginning the competition slowly, as draws against Peru and Chile were eventually followed up with a slender 1-0 victory over Mexico – who themselves struggled badly in Group B to finish bottom of the pile with no points.

Liverpool forward Luis Suarez has failed to show the sort of form that, at times, lit up the Premier League in the second half of last season and he has managed just one goal so far, in the opening draw with Peru.

Equally, Diego Forlan – who was voted the best player at last summer’s World Cup – has been strangely subdued and has yet to find the back of the net.

However, they possess some real talent in the squad, not least in the aforementioned duo, and also with the likes of Alvaro Gonzalez, Sebastián Eguren and experienced defender Maxi Periera so, like Argentina, they can be a real force if they play to their potential.

Sadly for Uruguay it looks as though their tournament is about to come to an end, though, as the hosts will probably have a little too much for them in the big clash between the two on Saturday.

Chile

Chile topped their group, ahead of Uruguay, and are showing in Argentina that their impressive performance in South Africa 12 months ago was no fluke (Chile 4/7, Venezuela 9/2, the draw 9/2 – match prices).

In Alexis Sanchez they have one of the most coveted forwards in world football with all the top sides throughout Europe, including Barcelona, Manchester United and Chelsea, clamouring for his signature.

And his performances so far prove he does have the talent to match the hype.

Sanchez has bagged one goal but has caught the eye for Chile, with much of their best attacking play going through the Udinese star, and he will be vital for them if they are to progress further.

A last-eight clash against Venezuela awaits for Claudio Borghi’s side, so a place in the semis is there for the taking in San Juan on Sunday.

Brazil

In a spooky coincidence, Brazil began the tournament in similar fashion to the way great rivals Argentina started.

The second favourites struggled early on and were stung with criticism from back home with two lethargic draws in their first two games – the second only secured thanks to a last-minute equaliser by Fred against Paraguay.

But the five-times world champions managed to get past Ecuador 4-2 in their final group game to ensure progress into the last eight and now face Paraguay for a place in the semi-finals (Brazil 4/7, Paraguay 9/2, draw 5/2 – match prices).

Despite failing to sparkle so far, the mere fact they are Brazil means they have a chance of winning the tournament and, of course, they have plenty of talent in their side with Dani Alves, Neymar – who scored twice against Paraguay – Lucio, Ramires and Alexandre Pato to name just five.

However, Brazil do appear to lack the star-studded line-up of tournaments gone by this year and winning the Copa America looks like being a tall order for Mano Menezes’ side such is the quality of other sides.

Expect them to make it into the last four but, beyond that, it looks like being a struggle.

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Top 5 Championship Game Changers

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With the new Championship season less than a month away a lot of clubs have already made some key signings in the fight for survival or promotion. We take a look at the top five players who could prove to be difference makers when the campaign gets underway.

1. Kevin Phillips (Blackpool)

Blackpool boss Ian Holloway pulled off a couple of shrewd buys before the start of last season, and Phillips could prove to be a player in a similar mould.

He might be 37 now but still knows the way to goal and has his fair share of experience when it comes to getting teams promoted.

Phillips played a key role in getting Sunderland and West Brom promoted and despite having not featured much for Birmingham, his strike rate still stands at just less than a goal every other game.

With Luke Varney gone and DJ Campbell set to leave Bloomfield Road, Phillips could find himself the star of the show again, as long as he can stay fit.

Blackpool are 6/1 to be promoted this season but those odds could shorten if Phillips can hit the goal trail.

2. Kevin Nolan (West Ham)

Nolan might have been around for what seems like forever but he is only 29 and, based on what he did for Newcastle last season, still looks to have a lot of life left in him.

Having turned down the chance to stay at St James’ Park the former Bolton ace opted to link up with old Trotters boss Sam Allardyce in east London.

While the Hammers are in big financial trouble they are still likely to be a force to be reckoned with under Alladryce, with totesport making them 4/1 to win the Championship.

Nolan should play a big part in their inevitable promotion push and don’t be surprised to hear Newcastle fans bemoaning his departure if their season goes wrong.

3. Will Hoskins/Craig Mackail-Smith (Brighton)

Brighton’s main strikers for next season might not have much experience between them at Championship level but they are proven goalscorers, Hoskins having already found the net in pre-season.

The 25-year-old scored 20 goals in 44 appearance for Bristol Rovers last season, while Mackail-Smith scored 35 goals in 57 games for Peterborough.

Brighton’s signing of Mackail-Smith represents a coup for the Seagulls and while they are unlikely to push for promotion, expect these two to score enough to make secure they finish mid-table.

4. Matt Mills (Leicester)

The big centre-half had a storming season for Reading last year and was one of the main reasons they came within 90 minutes of promotion.

While Sven Goran Eriksson is likely to sign bigger names than Mills before the transfer window shuts, he looks like the kind of player who will become a fans’ favourite, as he did at the Madejski.

The Foxes are 13/8 to be promoted and the way they are spending cash it looks to be just a matter of time before they return to the Premier League.

5. Jack Cork (Southampton)

The Saints may have been a bit quieter than most were expecting on the transfer front but in Cork they have at least made one good signing.

The 22-year-old has spent plenty of time out on loan in the Championship and has shown that bit of quality needed in the middle of the park.

If Nigel Adkins can recruit a few more quality players than there is no reason why the Saints can’t do a Norwich and secure back-to-back promotions, especially with Rickie Lambert up front.

Southampton are 11/2 to be promoted.

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Fulham continue Europa Crusade

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The long road towards the Europa League proper continues this week and on Thursday there are seven teams from Britain and Ireland involved in the second qualifying round.
The majority can only dream of the reaching the tournament proper, but here is our guide to the home nations’ best chances in the second qualifying round.

Crusaders v Fulham

The Cottagers secured their clash with Crusaders (9/1 to win the game) of Northern Ireland thanks to a 3-0 aggregate win over NSI Runavik of the Faroe Islands.

If you look at the side put out by Martin Jol in the legs against Runavik you get an idea of how seriously Fulham (2/11 to win) are taking this Europa League qualifying. They put out a full-strength side in the first leg, with only a few young faces on the bench, and are likely to do the same against Crusaders – at least in the first match between the two sides in Northern Ireland on Thursday.

Crusaders finished second in the Irish league last season and Northern Irish international defender Colin Coates will be a massive loss for them, as he could have contended with the likes of England striker Bobby Zamora and Andrew Johnson.

Chris Morris is also missing for the part-timers as they look to cause a shock in their first game against top-flight English opposition since 1976.

Fulham should not be overly worried about facing Crusaders in Belfast as, even if things go awry on Thursday, they have won six straight Europa League games at Craven Cottage so would fancy themselves to finish the Irish side off next week (The Draw 5/1).

Crusaders are going to be rusty as this is their first game in the Europa League qualifying but are likely to be up for it against Fulham.

However, nothing other than a win for Jol’s men seems on the cards here.
Slask Wroclaw v Dundee United

Dundee United (14/5 to win) travel to Poland to face Slask Wroclaw, who finished runners-up in the Polish First Division last season. The Tangerines face a tough task in the first leg against a strong Slask Wroclaw (4/5 to win, 12/5 draw) outfit.

Manager Peter Houston has a depleted squad to take with him to Poland as giant centre-half Garry Kenneth is the latest name ruled out through injury. Danny Swanson and Scott Robertson are also unavailable, with the boss admitting the Tangerines are “down to the bare bones”.

Celtic keeper and former Dundee United goalkeeper Lukasz Zaluska has warned his former employers to keep their eye on Slask Wroclaw’s dangerman Sebastian Mila.

He is the Polish side’s star player but Zaluska reckons they are not a one-man team and pose a number of threats to the Tangerines. Dundee United are taking just under 500 supporters to Poland and they could need all that support if they are to dream of making it to the play-off stage like they did last season.

Shakhter Karagandy v St Patrick’s Athletic

FC Shakhtyor Karaganda of Kazakhstan came through past Koper of Slovenia in the first qualifying round to face Ireland’s St Patricks Athletic – who overcame IBV. Both teams’ domestic league campaigns are underway and they are riding high in their respective competitions.

St Patrick’s are second in the Airtricity Premier League and have impressed in attack so far this season, while Shakhter Karagandy are a tough side and currently sit third in their Premier Division, with Kazakhstan native Sergei Khizhnichenko firing 11 goals already.

The Irish side are heading into the unknown but should have the ability to score over in Kazakhstan, which would put them in a great position heading into the second leg in Ireland.

And The Rest:

Llanelli face a massive challenge against the Georgian side of Dinamo Tbilisi, especially considering they are without Craig Moses, Martyn Giles, Chris Holloway, Chris Venables and Rhys Griffiths through suspension. (Llanelli 9/2 to win, Tblisi 1/2, draw 11/4).

The New Saints could have a secret weapon up their sleeves against the Danish team FC Midtjylland in the shape of their artificial pitch. Cliftonville, who they overcame in the first round, struggled to cope but Midtjylland, who finished fourth in the Danish Superliga, will pose a much tougher threat (New Saints 18/5, Midtjylland 8/13, draw 5/2).

Glentoran are going to be without some key players for their clash with Vorskla Poltava. They overcame FC Renova of Macedonia in the first round to book the game with the Ukranians but the loss of Colin Nixon, Jonny Taylor, Sean Ward, Richard Clarke and Elliot Morris will hamper their chances of victory (Glentoran 18/5, Poltava 8/13, draw 5/2).

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Womens World Cup nears climax

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The Womens World Cup has reached the semi-final stage with Sweden taking on Japan and favourites USA tackling Brazil. With pre-tournament favourites and hosts Germany out of the tournament, there is the opportunity for one country to write history and be crowned world champions at the weekend but, first of all, who will make it to the final?

Sweden v Japan

Sweden’s impressive 3-1 victory over Australia has raised expectations that they can become world champions (7/2 – Outright) for the first time in their history.

They were beaten finalists in 2003 – when they lost to hosts USA – but this present team appear to have the mental determination to go one better this time around.

Skipper Caroline Seger sums up the confidence currently to be found within the Swedish camp when she said in the build-up to the semi-final: “This is our time. Everything is going our way, we have more self-belief and we are playing extremely well together.”

That is certainly a reflection of a confident squad and one pulling in the same direction so, with that in mind, we can only see one winner on Wednesday, despite Japan’s famous 1-0 triumph over Germany in the last eight (Japan 9/2 – Outright).

They will not be taken lightly by the Swedish women but such is the mood and apparent momentum in the Sweden camp a narrow win (Sweden 5/4, Japan 9/5, the draw 21/10 – match prices) for Thomas Dennerby’s side looks on the cards.

Verdict: Sweden win
Value bet: Draw/Sweden – HT/FT – 21/5.

USA v France

USA are the real powerhouses of women’s football and, along with Germany, have dominated the game for the past few years (USA – 11/10 – Womens World Cup Outright).

The Americans have already won two World Cups, in 1991 and 1999, and have the fantastic record of making it at least into the semi-finals in every tournament, so without question they will be heavily fancied to see off France and book a final place (USA 9/10, France 13/5, the draw 11/5 – match prices).

They have had some criticism in Germany for adopting a physical and direct approach at times but no-one can say it hasn’t been effective with impressive group wins over Korea and Colombia before they slipped up against Sweden when losing 2-1 in their final group game.

In the end that result mattered little and USA then went on to beat Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals to underline their mental toughness when the pressure is on.

It is likely to be a clash of styles in Monchengladbach with France (9/2 – Outright) so far making it into the last four thanks to some neat football and the goals of Gaetene Thiney and Marie-Laure Delie up front.

Coach Bruni Bini believes the fact France have already played in Monchengladbach and their slightly longer recovery period between their quarter-final win over England and the semi-final gives them the advantage going into the game.

However, do not be fooled by that talk as a very fit USA side will be ready for the game and are rightly viewed as favourites to progress. Their experience, form and mental strength are not in question and another final place beckons.

Verdict: USA win.
Value bet:  USA to win 4-0 – 33/1.

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Mexico to Copa load of Uruguay

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If you have been betting on this year’s Copa America you are probably wondering what is going on with the likes of Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina. Just one win has been recorded between the three powerhouses of South American football. Having drawn both their opening matches Uruguay are staring a first round exit in the face. Only a win over a youthful Mexico side will do. Can Diego Forlan and co finally come good when it counts?

The Celeste were expected to challenge Argentina and Brazil in their quests for the Copa America after so impressively reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup last year. However, life has been far from simple for Uruguay and they have found themselves in a tougher group than many expected, with Peru and Chile having impressed. Draws against Chile and Peru has left Uruguay needing a win against Mexico to make it through, with the CONCACAF Gold Cup winners having lost their previous two matches.

As expected Uruguay are the 2/5 favourites, with Mexico a big 7/1 and the draw 14/5. The last time these two sides met was in the group stages of the World Cup, Luis Suarez getting the only goal of the game as both nations progressed to the latter stages. From that Mexican team that played in Rustenberg, South Africa, only Giovanni Dos Santos is expected to feature.

For those of you who haven’t followed the build-up to the tournament the Mexican FA suspended a number of their top players for ill discipline and have had to name a very youthful squad for the Copa America after their exploits in the Gold Cup. They are the whipping boys of the group and if Uruguay don’t get a result against them questions will be asked to where it has all gone wrong from 12 months ago.

The names that impressed at the World Cup are still there, Diego Lugano, Cristian Rodriquez, Forlan and Suarez. However, things don’t appear to be clicking at this time for Oscar Tabarez’s men and time is running out for them to get it right. History is on their side in this competition, they are the joint-most successful team in Copa America history and have reached the semi-finals or final in the last four tournaments.

They need a spark and based on his form for Liverpool before the end of the season Suarez might be the man to provide it. He is 4/1 first/last goalscorer and evens to score anytime, the same odds as Forlan. However, while Forlan endured a torrid season at Atletico Madrid and comes into the tournament in no real form, Suarez impressed in the Premier League and,  like Lionel Messi for Argentina against Costa Rica if he can shine then so can Uruguay.

Uruguay have never beaten Mexico in a Copa America match but that record should be broken on Wednesday night.

Don’t expect a high scoring game – under 2.5 goals at 4/5 could be a safe bet – but surely there can only be one winner if Uruguay awake from their slumber.

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Wenger confident stars will stay

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Bet on the Premier LeagueArsene Wenger put on a very public face on Monday to reiterate his desire to keep Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas at Arsenal – but the truth of the matter rests with the players (1/2 Arsenal – Premier League Top 4 Finish).

Spanish and European champions Barcelona have made no secret of their desire to return homegrown talent Fabregas to Camp Nou, perhaps acutely aware that midfield superstar Xavi is now the wrong side of 30, and Arsenal’s Premier League title rivals have been busy forming a queue to sign Nasri.

The Frenchman used his first press conference ahead of the new season to dismiss suggestions he and Nasri were certain to leave in what promises to be a fascinating close-season at the Emirates (7/1 Arsenal – Premier League outright).

“Our position is always the same – we want to keep Cesc and I will fight as hard as I can to keep him. Samir Nasri is exactly the same. We will do everything we can to keep him,” said Wenger. “I’m confident we can get both of them to stay.”

The situation is clear with Nasri in so much as he has just 12 months left on his contract and conjecture about any player’s future at such a juncture is inevitable.

It was telling and curious that Wenger intimated only Nasri knows whether he will put pen to paper.

Asked about his countryman, Wenger added: “Will he be at the club next season? I say yes. The second part (of the question) – will he sign a new contract? I hope yes, but I am not the only one to decide.”

A disparity in the clubs’ respective valuations of 24-year-old Fabregas has stopped  his move back to his place of birth and so the wait goes on, but it is fair to suggest something has to give if the World Cup winner has decided home is really where his heart is.

Wenger has also confirmed the signing of the Ivory Coast forward Gervinho from Lille and revealed Nicklas Bendtner and Manuel Almunia have not travelled to the Far East because they are in talks with other clubs about leaving Arsenal.

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